Good luck Kevin
Democrats need to defy expectations and try to win in November. Who knows? If Donald Trump could become president anything can happen. But if they can keep the margins tight, it could make a difference for 2024. The reason is that Kevin McCarthy is in for a world of hurt when the MAGA caucus, led by Marjorie Taylor Green, flexes its muscles and turns the House into a circus sideshow:
Far-right candidates are surging in House races across the map: Republican leaders increasingly fear that a red wave will wash in a raft of conspiracy theorists and extremists.
Why it matters: The establishment grows ever weaker. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy — on the doorstep of the speaker’s office — can expect to be saddled with new members who have zero loyalty or predictability.
What’s happening: Many of the GOP candidates expected to cause leadership headaches are backed by former President Trump, whose grip on McCarthy is as strong as ever.
They play well with Trump’s MAGA base and are running in incredibly conservative districts.
Several, like Loren Culp and Joe Kent in Washington, have made no secret of their disdain for McCarthy and GOP leadership overall.
What we’re hearing: In cycles past, leadership has attempted to get involved in some races to stiff-arm candidates they find problematic.
But this time, House GOP leadership is highly sensitive to the political downsides of interfering: Republicans need these candidates to take back the majority and make McCarthy speaker.
McCarthy has been careful not to alienate them, hoping his hands-off approach will help earn their trust and foster goodwill down the line.
Yes, but: Once in office, it will be hard for McCarthy to control his far-right freshmen — just as he’s faced difficulty wrangling Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) and Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.), who see themselves as “untouchable.”
Greene, for example, has long gloated she’s immune to punishment by McCarthy. That’s been true even after she and Gosar appeared at a gathering of white nationalists hosted by outspoken Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes.
What to watch: The number of seats Republicans ultimately win in November will be crucial to this dynamic.
That margin, in conjunction with the number of these controversial candidates who win in the general election, will determine how much influence they have over the Republican conference.
Republicans already have a nightmarish job whipping votes for certain legislation because of the House Freedom Caucus — which is experiencing its own identity crisis over the increasing radicalization of its members.
These new candidates could complicate that dynamic further.
What they’re saying: “If you look at our history with the Freedom Caucus, they don’t back down and don’t vote for things. So our margins will be really important,” a House GOP leadership aide told Axios.
“Biden’s going to be president no matter what. … There are going to be times when we need to pass government funding, NDAA and so on,” the aide added. “Kevin’s going to be in the position of having to cut deals with Biden and that’s not going to go well with some of these people.”
It’s going to be a mess — and a good reminder of what having these lunatics in charge is like.