Harry Enten at CNN:
There’s a common view that the vacant Supreme Court seat created by the death of Antonin Scalia helped Republicans in the 2016 election by motivating religious conservatives who otherwise were not fans of Mr. Trump.
Indeed, a Pew poll at the time found that Trump supporters were eight points likelier than Clinton supporters to call Supreme Court appointments a “very important” issue. The exit poll was even more stark: 21 percent of voters said Supreme Court appointments were the most important issue, and they backed Mr. Trump over Hillary Clinton, 56-41.
But this year, it’s Democrats who are more likely to say the Supreme Court is “very important” to their vote, according to Pew Research. It’s not hard to see why a Supreme Court vacancy would have been more motivating to Republicans in 2016, but more motivating to Democrats today. After all, it was the Republicans who feared losing a seat and the balance of the court four years ago. This time, it’s the Democrats.
Actually, the balance of the court is already conservative. That ship sailed when the only moderately conservative swing Justice Kennedy retired and they replaced him with the beer-addled, political operative, Brett Kavanaugh. (Counting on Roberts to reliably be a swing voter in the most important cases is wishful thinking.) Nonetheless, I think the fact that Mitch McConnell has packed the lower courts and is willing to do whatever it takes to steal yet another seat, probably motivates Democrats about the courts more than they have ever been motivated by that issue before.
Democratic donors gave more money online in the 9 p.m. hour Friday after Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death was announced — $6.2 million — than in any other single hour since ActBlue, the donation-processing site, was started 16 years ago.
Then donors broke the site’s record again in the 10 p.m. hour when donors gave another $6.3 million — more than $100,000 per minute.
The unprecedented outpouring shows the power of a looming Supreme Court confirmation fight to motivate Democratic donors. The previous biggest hour, on Aug. 20, when Joseph R. Biden Jr. spoke on the final night of the Democratic convention, saw $4.3 million in donations processed, according to an ActBlue spokesperson.
Before noon on Saturday, donations to Democratic causes and campaigns on ActBlue since Justice Ginsburg’s passing had topped $45 million.
ActBlue does not show where donations go in real time but much of the grassroots energy appeared focused on the Senate, which would have the power to confirm or block any nominee picked by President Trump.
Hours after Justice Ginsburg’s death, Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, pledged that whomever Mr. Trump picked to replace her would receive a confirmation vote. “President Trump’s nominee will receive a vote on the floor of the United States Senate,” he said in a statement.