President Joe Biden is not a popular politician at this point in his presidency. This is even true in Virginia, a state he won by 10 points last year, where his net approval rating (approval – disapproval) is under water.Yet in Virginia, and even nationally on the generic congressional ballot, Democrats are holding onto slim within-the-margin-of-error advantages.Why? It could be in part because former President Donald Trump is unusually present for a politician not in office, and he’s as — if not more — unpopular than Biden.
Why Virginia is the biggest test yet for whether Trump still motivates DemocratsYou can see the Trump dynamic playing out in real time on the campaign trail. Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe has repeatedly tried to tie Republican nominee Glenn Youngkin to the former President, both in his speeches and ads. Youngkin is walking a fine line, leaning into some of Trump’s rhetoric to help boost Republican turnout, but also distancing himself on certain issues and playing up hyperlocal issues to appeal to the center of the electorate.
With a little under two weeks to go until Election Day, McAuliffe’s plan may just work. McAuliffe holds a nominal advantage of about 2 to 3 points over Youngkin in a recent average of polls. If you look back at more than 240 gubernatorial elections with polling since 1998, a lead of this size in the final three weeks of the campaign has held up about 70% of the time. (Hillary Clinton had similar odds of winning based on the pre-election polls in 2016.)
If the polls were exactly right, McAuliffe would greatly underperform Biden’s win last year and current Gov. Ralph Northam’s win in the 2017 governor’s race. They won by 10 points and 9 points, respectively. The drop in McAuliffe’s position relative to other Democrats shouldn’t be surprising given that Biden’s net approval in the state in recent polling has averaged about -2 points.
Still, a lead is a lead, and McAuliffe is outrunning Biden’s net popularity rating by a little less than 5 points.
The same polling reveals that Trump remains deeply unpopular in the state. A Fox News poll released last week had his net favorability rating (favorable – unfavorable) at -9 points among likely voters and -18 points among registered voters. Trump’s more unpopular than McAuliffe or Youngkin, who both sported positive net favorability ratings in the Fox News poll among likely voters.This seems to matter.You can see how closely feelings toward Trump and vote choice align by looking at the crosstabs of the Fox News poll.
On a scale of -1 to +1, the correlation across demographic groups between Trump’s unfavorable rating and McAuliffe’s standing in the horse race was over +0.98. You rarely get that type of correlation between the popularity of an out-of-office politician and vote choice. It’s nearly the same as Biden’s popularity and vote choice (over +0.99 correlation).
Indeed, a CBS News/YouGov poll from Virginia shows just how motivating a factor Trump is in whether voters cast a ballot. A majority of likely voters (51%) said feelings about Trump were very motivating. That’s basically the same as the 48% who said the same thing about their feelings toward Biden.
Separate polling from a Monmouth University poll in August showed that about the same share of Virginia voters indicated that Trump was a major factor in their 2021 vote as they did in 2017.This is something we’re seeing nationally as well. Trump continues to cast a shadow in a way I’m not sure we fully appreciate.
OH, I appreciate it.
The Democrats are not performing well, obviously. The sturm und drang of the legislative sausage making is taking a toll and it doesn’t look good. What with that and COVID and the sluggish economy, the border etc, they can’t count on winning on the basis of their competence and superior governance. It’s not altogether air, but that’s the way it is. The two Divas have ruined their momentum and the Vaccin refusniks have ruined the rest. But they were elected to tone down the drama and fix the government and all this drama is not what anyone wanted.
But Donald Trump is out there being way, way worse and he is not going away. At the end of the day, it’s always a choice. And Democratic voters are still sufficiently freaked out by the alternative that they are highly unlikely to sit this out.
I hope …