Steve Bullock, the former Democratic governor of Montana, would like a word with you (New York Times):
The warning signs were already there in 2020 when Democrats fell short in congressional and state races despite electing Joe Biden president. I know because I was on the ballot for U.S. Senate and lost. In the last decade and a half, we’ve seen Senate seats flip red in Arkansas, Indiana, North Dakota, and more. Democrats have lost more than 900 state legislative seats around the country since 2008. And in this year’s governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey, we saw the Democratic vote in rural areas plummet, costing the party one seat and nearly losing us the other. It was even worse for Democrats down ballot, as Democrats lost state legislative, county, and municipal seats.
The electoral and women’s rights mischief in the states is occurring because Republicans dominate the legislatures.
Sure, Democrats can still win governor’s races in states like North Carolina, as incumbent Roy Cooper did in 2020 on the strength of the Democratic vote in its larger population centers. Then he has to face down a Republican legislature bent on putting voters through another 10 years of gerrymandering lawsuits and culture-war-based legislative insanity.
The map tells the tale. The northeast part of the state is as heavily Black as it is rural. The unlabeled blue counties west of there include the cities of Durham (Duke Univ), Chapel Hill (UNC), Winston-Salem, Boone (Appalachian State), and Asheville:
Bullock takes Democrats to task for their Capitol Hill infighting this year. “You had Democrats fighting Democrats, letting the perfect be the enemy of the good, and desperately needed progress was delayed,” Bullock writes. “It’s no wonder rural voters think Democrats are not focused on helping them.” Democrats, Bullock alleges, are “out of touch with the needs of the ordinary voter. “
That’s standard-issue, rural-state politician rhetoric. I don’t know what Bullock considers an ordinary voter, but polling suggests that the programs Democrats are fighting amonsgst themeslves to deliver are damned popular with half or more of ordinary voters. What’s not popular with rural voters in states like Bullock’s (and mine) are Democrats.
It’s never easy for Democrats to get elected in Montana, because Democrats here are running against not only the opponent on the ballot, but also against conservative media’s (and at times our own) typecast of the national Democratic brand: coastal, overly educated, elitist, judgmental, socialist — a bundle of identity groups and interests lacking any shared principles. The problem isn’t the candidates we nominate. It’s the perception of the party we belong to.
As I just said, it’s not the policies. It’s the perception.
Bullock at least offers a few suggestions:
To overcome these obstacles, Democrats need to show up, listen, and respect voters in rural America by finding common ground instead of talking down to them. Eliminating student loans isn’t a top-of-mind matter for the two-thirds of Americans lacking a college degree. Being told that climate change is the most critical issue our nation faces rings hollow if you’re struggling to make it to the end of the month. And the most insulting thing is being told what your self-interest should be.
Regular readers will recognize that last line as a regular complaint of mine.
Democrats’ policies have to be reframed, Bullock suggests, to how “real people” think about their lives. Exccept, Democratic policies are connecting just fine with real people in urban centers.
Bullock wants the Build Back Better plan passed, and quick, so rural America can see that Democrats have their backs.
But as he just admitted, it’s not their policies, it’s the negative brand Democrats have in rural America.
Bullock continues with sounder advice:
It’s time for Democrats to get uncomfortable and go beyond friendly urban and suburban settings to hear directly from folks in small towns who are trying to run a business, pay the bills, and maintain access to health care. They have stories to tell and ideas to share, and we should listen. When then-candidate Barack Obama spent the Fourth of July 2008 in Butte, Mont., he didn’t go there because Butte was suddenly key to winning in November, but showing up there sent a loud and clear message to places like Butte all across our country that he gives a damn about us.
Butte and Scranton may be a long way from each other geographically, but they’re not that far apart in terms of working-class roots, values and attitudes. President Biden can help rural Americans know and believe Democrats are tackling the challenges they face. Democrats need to get off the polling and consultant calls, get into the community and engage voters directly: Do you have a decent job that covers the bills and leaves a little left over? Can you afford your home and pay for health care? Do you feel safe? Do you believe we are doing right for your kids, educationally, environmentally and economically? Do you see a path forward toward a better life for you and your family?
Get out of the city more. Show up and listen first. Deep canvassing groups are doing that, but it takes time to change perceptions, time the country doesn’t have. But Democrats have to start somewhere. Smaller races in rural places matter. They’re not sexy. They’re not stepping-stones to that White House gig budding politicos dream of. But remember, the U.S. helped the South Vietnamese hold the cities while the North Vietnamese controlled the countryside. It didn’t work out too well.
Smaller races in rural places.