Ahead of a midterm election, any number of incumbent congressional legislators decide it is time to retire with federal benefits or, after gerrymandered redistricting, simply to avoid losing. (Depending on age and years of service, benefits can be, shall we say, “comfortable.”) This year is no exception. But the headline from Axios, “Perfect storm brewing for extreme politicians,” is somewhat misleading.
Axios picks out a set of open seats this year arbitrarily chosen because their Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is 15 or higher, and suggests that the districts lend themselves to electing hyperpartisan candidates, either D or R. For the uninitiated, Cook’s defines PVI:
A Partisan Voter Index score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, that district performed an average of two points more Democratic than the nation did as a whole, while an R+4 means the district performed four points more Republican.
Axios explains:
The big picture: Incumbents start with a huge advantage; 91% of them won re-election in 2018, according to OpenSecrets.
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- When they leave, it levels the playing field for new candidates. And as districts grow more partisan, so, generally, do the candidates who step up.
- “Open seats are the biggest accelerant of extremism” and “breeding grounds for ideological warfare,” Cook’s Dave Wasserman tells Axios.
Yes, but: More intensely partisan players also can get elected without help from open seats.
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- Three progressive “Squad” members defeated incumbents.
That last is a big, “yes, but” to Axios’ “open seats invite hyperpartisanship” premise.
But the high PVI scores for these seats mean that the D or R primaries are effectively the general elections in these districts. November is already a foregone conclusion. That means each vote in the smaller pool of primary voters carries more weight. Which is true in any primary. But in these districts, primary voters pick the candidate who will go to Congress. And those voters tend to be party stalwarts, more politically active and, Pew finds, holding more sharply ideological views. “Faith and Flag Conservatives on the right and Progressive Left on the left” turned out in the highest numbers in 2020.
My state representative retires at the end of this month after 18 years. Owing to state procedures, party executive committee members from her district select someone to serve the remainder of her term. That’s roughly 60 people. 50%+1 is all that’s required to win that vote. (NC Gov. Roy Cooper makes the official appointment.) Of two who stepped forward, the selected candidate received 43 votes (in a district of about 70k registered voters). This makes him the incumbent going into the May primary in a district where the Democrat is a shoe-in for November.
So, pay attention to when your primaries occur this year. Ballotpedia has a handy chart. Wisconsin and Texas hold primaries in three to five weeks. The rest take place from May through mid-September.