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Looks like it’s war

Vladimir Putin just gave a rambling unhinged speech today that essentially declared everything since the Communist revolution as illegitimate and that a renewed Greater Russia is on the table. He stopped just short of declaring himself Czar:

If you’re wondering why Putin would use this address to go on for so long about the history of another country, the answer is simple – he doesn’t think Ukraine is a real country, and has made that pretty clear

“We can’t let these nationalist feelings be the foundation of a state,” Putin says. He’s not even talking about modern Ukraine – we are still in the 1920s

Putin says Ukraine is a geopolitical fiction created by Stalin in the 1920s. “We’re ready to show you what real decommunization is.”

Putin says Russia was “robbed” by the collapse of the USSR.

Putin: “Why did the Bolsheviks need to generously encourage any nationalist ambitions on the imperial periphery? Handing over territories and the population of historical Russia… the nationalists didn’t even dream of this”

Putin now on to modern day: “Ukraine has never had traditions of its own statehood… the Ukrainian state is built on denying everything that invites us, the historical memory of millions of people”

I’ve had a few people around the Kremlin say that Ukraine was downstream from Nato: just an irritant in Russia’s relations with the west. 20 minutes in and Putin hasn’t even mentioned Nato. This is just an enormous rant where he seems to really resent Ukraine for being a country

“Maidan did not bring democracy to Ukraine… after eight years the country is divided, Ukraine is living through a severe economic and social crisis. 15% of the population had to leave the country for work, usually for non-skilled labor”

I’ve had random Russians rant to me about Ukrainian history like this before, but they didn’t control the world’s largest nuclear arsenal

Putin recalls the 2014 Odessa fire in which dozens of pro-Russians died. “The radicals who seized power in Ukraine organized terror and a series of murders went unpunished […] we know the criminals by name and will do everything to punish them.”

Imagine being Macron and sitting through this patiently for six hours while you politely urge Putin not to start a huge war

“Ukraine has been reduced to the level of a colony with a puppet regime,” Putin says.

“The US and Nato have shamelessly turned Ukraine into a theater of potential military action against Russia,” Putin says. “Ukraine’s armed forces may well be commanded directly from Nato HQ.”

Onto the failed attempt to make Ukraine and Georgia in 2008. “The Americans were just using them for their anti-Russian policy,” Putin says.

“I’ve never said this before,” Putin says, then reveals he asked Bill Clinton in Moscow in 2000 whether Russia could ever join Nato. Then he starts accusing the US of supporting terrorists in Chechnya and ignoring Russia’s interests with Nato expansion and missile defense

“Okay, you don’t want us to be your friend. But why make us an enemy? There’s only one answer,” Putin says. “They just don’t want there to be this big, self-sufficient, strong country called Russia. That’s where all of American behavior comes from.”

Obviously I expected Putin to be aggressive and uncompromising, but this is downright scary. This is a war speech.

“Nato admitting Ukraine and putting its weaponry there is a settled question,” he says. “They’re looking at a sudden strike against Russia.”

One reason why the sanctions deterrence hasn’t worked: “the west is blackmailing Russia with sanctions, but they will always find an excuse for them and fake it,” Putin says.

“Russia has done everything to ensure Ukraine retained its territorial integrity,” Putin says, not mentioning that he is personally responsible for it losing about 20% of its territory

A minute later, Putin says he will recognize the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics immediately and ask the Russian parliament to ratify it as soon as possible. So there you have it.

TV then immediately cuts to Putin in the Kremlin signing decrees doing just that, with the separatist leaders in tow. He’s also signing agreements about “friendship and mutual aid” with both republics.

They cut to the signing ceremony so fast I didn’t have time to tweet Putin’s final message – that Ukraine was behind the violence in the Donbas and would be held responsible for “ensuing bloodshed.” This is only the beginning. The speech made it clear: war’s on the table.

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