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Miscalculations

President Biden is expected to speak on the Ukraine invasion at 12:30 p.m. Eastern time.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine could be a serious political miscalculation on his part. What the rest of us must worry about are miscalculations in the field. A Russian missile strays into NATO territory and kills allied troops or civilians. A Russian jet wanders into NATO territory or overflys a U.S. Navy ship in the Black Sea and gets shot down. Any miscalculation could trigger NATO’s mutual defense provision.

Russia acknowledged the loss of one SU-25 attack jet, blaming pilot error. Ukrainian forces claim several Russian helicopters shot down.

Putin Wednesday night warned the world against interferingwith his actions, declaring, “whoever tries to impede us, let alone create threats for our country and its people, must know that the Russian response will be immediate and lead to the consequences you have never seen in history.”

Russians claim to have destroyed over 70 Ukrainian facilities. Blood has been spilled, reports say:

Russia Ukraine Crisis Live: As many as 40 Ukranian soldiers and around 10 civilians have been killed by Russian shelling, a Reuters report quoting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy adviser, said on Thursday. The AFP, meanwhile reported that Ukraine said it killed ‘around 50 Russian occupiers’ without providing details. The casualties are the latest in a series of fast-paced developments that began when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation in Ukraine early Thursday. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s ambassador to India urged PM Narendra Modi to contact Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr to mediate the crisis.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday said that the country has severed diplomatic relations with Russia after Moscow launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine by land, air and sea on Thursday, the biggest attack by one state against another in Europe since World War Two and confirmation of the worst fears of the West. Zelenskiy has declared martial law in the country and Ukrainian foreign minister vowed to fight and defeat Russia.

Global stocks have already plunged. Stocks in the U.S. plunged hundreds of points as soon as markets opened at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time.

With so much focus on Ukraine, not all of the response reflects Western reaction:

China rejected calling Russia’s moves on Ukraine an “invasion” and urged all sides to exercise restraint, even as it advised its citizens there to stay home or at least take the precaution of displaying a Chinese flag if they needed to drive anywhere.

China’s call for “calm, restraint and dialogue” on Tuesday was effectively “cheerleading Putin’s belligerence,” Time‘s Charlie Campbell writes.

Putin has long wanted to rebuild the Russia-based empire that collapsed in 1991:

In a speech on February 21, Putin baselessly accused Ukraine of seeking a nuclear weapon and called its government a “neo-Nazi” regime that bore responsibility for any further bloodshed.

He recognised the independence of two separatist regions and authorised sending “peacekeepers” into the rebel provinces.

Tatiana Stanovaya, who runs the R.Politik analytical centre, predicted grim times ahead, saying that Putin had “crossed over to the dark side of history”.

The rest of us now are along for the ride.

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