Francis Fukuyama writes about the Ukraine war:
Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
He thinks Putin won’t survive as leader. Wouldn’t that be nice? And how about this sunny prediction?
The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world, who prior to the attack uniformly expressed sympathy for Putin. That includes Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, and of course Donald Trump. The politics of the war has exposed their openly authoritarian leanings….A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom,” and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians.
Wow. That really is looking on the bright side. And I do hope he’s right! If Putin has managed to destroy the global right wing populist (fascist) movement with this invasion, then maybe something good will eventually come of this. But watching this carnage makes it very hard to be optimistic about anything. War is always so insane in the nuclear age, and this latest gambit makes me wonder if humankind can be counted upon to save itself at all.
But hey, keep hope alive.