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A break in the post-Roe weather?

On the right all politics is personal

Slate’s Heather Schwedel shares some mother-child anecdotes collected in the wake of the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe. The Dobbs ruling has created new common ground in some families and perhaps political realignment. One 23-year-old from Arkansas reports his mother is done voting for Republicans.

“She has two daughters, both of my sisters, so I think she’s upset about just what it means for other women,” says Chad who did not give a last name:

Caylie Smith, a 29-year-old in Los Angeles, always knew her mother, 57, supported abortion rights, LGBTQ rights, and gun control. But her parents have also always voted for Republicans despite those things, mostly because they thought Republicans were better on the economy. Not anymore, Smith told me.

“This is the thing that got her to change her mind,” she said. “Once this happened, I saw the change in her. She was like, ‘OK, enough is enough­. This has gone way too far.’ ”

Republican strategists know that political issues can be abstractions for many conservatives until they become personal. That is, when they affect me, my family, my friends, my job, my money, etc. In this case, my daughters. Seeing Roe overturned may have been an abstraction until now. Not anymore.

A few anecdotes do not a trend make. But recent polls do show a shift in attitude away from Republicans.

Simon Rosenberg of NDN, a Washington think tank, sees that in polling since Dobbs. Even after YouGov discovered and corrected for a programming error in its poll, voter attitudes about the congressional generic ballot seem to be favoring Democrats.

Rosenberg tweeted:

With this significant change in the Economist/YouGov data, the average of the 9 polls taken since Roe ended is:

45.4% Dem – 43.7% GOP, +1.7 Dem

It’s now closer to a 4-5 pt swing towards the Dems.

Rosenberg offers more at his blog:

The Generic Turns Positive for Democrats – There have now been 10 polls reporting out the Congressional Generic (via 538) since Roe ended, and they have averaged 45.4 D/43.7 R (+1.7 Dem).  Taking out Rasmussen it’s +2.5 Dem.  It has been -2 to -2.5 Dem for many months.  This data suggests the race has moved 3-5 points to the Democrats in recent weeks.  Five of the nine polls show meaningful movement towards the Democrats since their last poll, and several show large Dem leads now in the generic: 

                             Last Poll   New Poll  Dem Shift
NPR/Marist         44-47          48-41         +10
Monmouth           43-50          46-48          +5 
Big Village           44-42          47-42          +3 
Yahoo/YouGov     43-39         45-38          +3 
Politico/Morn C   42-42         45-42          +3

In new comprehensive polls of battleground states Future Majority found the Congressional Generic shifting from 43-45 (-2) in March to 44-42 (+2) now, a 4 point shift.  With Democrats now consistently leading in the generic ballot it is a new election, a competitive not a wave election and all talk of a Republican wave should end.  

How about the Senate? More good polling:

A review of recent Senate polling strongly suggests if the election were held today Democrats would retain the Senate and perhaps even pick up a few seats. The NYTimes has a good Senate overview today, and that new polling from Future Majority finds a far better Senate landscape for Democrats: 

AZ – Kelly leads Masters, 48-39, Lamon 47-41.  He trailed a generic Republican 43-45 in March. 
GA – Warnock leads Walker 48-44.  He trailed 48-49 in March.
NH – Hassan leads Bolduc 49-40.  They didn’t poll NH in March.  
NV – Cortez Masto leads Laxalt 46-43.  She trailed Laxalt 43-45 in March.  

Republicans are showing significant weakness now in their seats.  Fetterman has meaningful leads in several recent polls, and now has to be considered a favorite in that race.  Ron Johnson trailed 3 of his 4 opponents in a new Marquette University poll, a poll that suggests that Johnson – even before Roe and his admitted involvement in Trump’s effort to overturn the election – is in serious trouble.  There have been polls showing Democratic leads in NC and OH though those races are considered by many a bit tougher.  Bottom line – Dems are in our book now favorites to keep the Senate, and have a shot at picking up 1-2 seats.  If we get two seats and keep the House filibuster carve ours for codifying Roe and election reform become real possibilities next year.

Any good news is welcome, even if tentative and premature.

Nate Silver still sees Republicans favored in the House, but the Senate is, for now, a toss-up.

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