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Congress still in the balance

Democrats overperform

Washington Post’s landing page the day after.

“The red wave that wasn’t,” declares Politico.

“Have not been this surprised by an election night since 2016,” tweeted MSNBC’s Chris Hayes.

The Senate hangs in the balance this morning with some key races still uncalled. Democrat John Fetterman defeated TV doctor Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania. It was Democrats’ first Senate flip of the night.

“We can’t have a system where if you win, it’s a legitimate election, and if you lose someone stole it.”

In Ohio, Republican J.D. Vance bested Democratic congressman Tim Ryan by five points. Ryan gave the classy concession speech no Republican from the Party of Trump would.

“I have the privilege to concede this race to J.D. Vance, because the way this country operates is that when you lose an election you concede and you respect the will of the people,” Ryan told supporters. “We can’t have a system where if you win, it’s a legitimate election, and if you lose someone stole it.”

The Post reports that voters reacted to GOP extremism and the Supreme Court’s overturn of Roe v. Wade after 50 years:

Democrats showed strength in key battleground races Tuesday, potentially defying Republican hopes of sweeping victories in the midterm elections and leaving control of Congress hanging in the balance the morning after millions of Americans went to the polls.

Republicans needed to flip five seats to retake the House and remained favored to take the majority after gaining some targeted districts. But the preliminary results reflected a closely divided country, with enthusiastic voters on both sides of the partisan divide. Republican efforts to tap anger over inflation and crime and strike deep into Democratic territory ran up against backlash over new restrictions on abortion and concerns about GOP extremism.

NBC News reports:

Thus far, election deniers have lost the races for governor in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin; the Senate in New Hampshire; and secretary of state in Michigan, Minnesota and New Mexico.

They’ve won in the races for the Senate in Ohio and attorney general in Florida and Ohio.

In many of the races involving election deniers, candidates sought offices with the power to affect elections; some ran in pivotal battleground states where presidential election results have an outsize impact on the Electoral College outcome — and thus who wins the White House.

Surprises and expected disappointments

In Georgia, Democrat Stacey Abrams lost her second bid for governor to incumbent Brian Kemp. The Georgia Senate race between incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock and Donald Trump-backed Herschel Walker is still too close to call with Warnock nearly a full point ahead with 95 percent of ballots counted. If neither reaches 50 percent, they will compete in a runoff on December 6.

In Wisconsin, incumbent Democrat Gov. Tony Evers was reelected despite a shaky economy. Sen. Ron Johnson leads Democrat Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes by two points with 94 percent of the vote counted. So, a sprinkle of sanity beside cheese-head crazy.

In Arizona, the race for governor between Democrat Katie Hobbs and Trump-backed TV personality Kari Lake is still in the balance. With nearly two-thirds of the vote counted, Hobbs leads by two points. Republicans and Lake are prepared to cry foul, having learned nothing from two years of election denial and losses in court challenge after court challenge. On the Senate side, incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly leads his race against Blake Masters by six points with roughly two-thirds of votes counted. More votes are still to come in this morning from Maricopa County. It’s significant to note that with Trump not on the ballot, the electorate may not hold a reservoir of Republican votes outstanding to help Lake and Masters.

Here in North Carolina, former state Supreme Court chief justice Cheri Beasley lost her bid to replace Sen. Richard Burr to Republican election denier Rep. Ted Budd. Polling was close. But close is never enough for Democrats in the Tar Heel State. Yet, Democrats won seven of 14 North Carolina U.S. House seats reaching parity for the first time since 2011 when the GOP gerrymandered the state “with almost surgical precision.” Democrats lost two state Supreme Court seats. Coming voting rights cases? Good luck, Democrats.

Republicans will not rack up the 30, 40 U.S. House gains projected in a normal midterm election. These are not normal times and normal rules do not apply. Republicans will take control of the House majority, but likely only narrowly.

New York Times graphic.

The future of abortion rights was on the ballot last night. Voters defied pundit’s and Republicans’ insistence that inflation and crime would drive election results. NBC News exit polling indicated differently. Abortion rights are a big effing deal, as President Joe Biden might say.

Don’t move to Portugal just yet.

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