It was late but it arrived with a vengeance
This wasn’t about anything the Democrats did or didn’t do. This was comprehensive and across the board. The country decided it wanted Donald Trump, period. The majority approves of him and his plans and they want more of it, even in the big blue states like California and New York.
Some people say it’s a realignment. I don’t think we can know that until Donald Trump leaves the stage. His form of demagoguery is apparantly very seductive to tens of millions of people and they believe his lies or at least find them tolerable. But I don’t know if it goes beyond him. We will see in four years … assuming he doesn’t blow up the world before then.
The only succor we have is that this is happening all over the globe. It isn’t just us. The turn to fascism, particulaly in the wake of the pandemic, is a phenomenon we see in all the western democracies to one degree or another. Some countries have been able to beat it back, but barely. We were among them, until yesterday.
Update:
This from political scientist John Sides at Good Authority, which does excellent electoral analysis, breaks the election down to its essence:
…Donald Trump did better in all kinds of places – red states and blue states, rural places, cities, and so on. So the initial explanations we should seek have to be broader than just one place or one group.
The simplest story is one that Michael Tesler and I wrote about back in March. A spike in inflation dragged down Joe Biden’s approval rating, which never improved very much even as inflation receded. Public views of the economy remained less positive than other indicators – economic growth, employment – would predict.
Replacing Biden with Kamala Harris opened up the possibility that she could outperform his approval rating. Some research suggests that the incumbent president’s record matters less when the incumbent is not running. Of course, Harris was also part of the incumbent administration herself.
As of March, Biden’s approval rating was consistent with a 3-point Democratic loss in the national popular vote. At the latest tally, early on Nov. 6, Trump has a 3.5-point lead. That may change as the remaining voters are counted, but it’s likely to be consistent with what Biden’s approval rating alone predicted.
As we get more and better data – a process that will take months, to be sure – we can add important details. But the central plot lines of the story are already clear, and not that dissimilar from four years ago.
In 2020, an unpopular incumbent lost reelection.
In 2024, an unpopular incumbent’s party lost reelection.
The circumstances and the reasons for their unpopularity differed. Nevertheless, their struggles provided the tailwind for the challenger. That has put Donald Trump back in the White House.
I would find that explanation more satisfactory if the challenger wasn’t the same guy the country had ousted four years before — who also now happened to be a convicted felon, con man, adjudicated rapist and certified freakshow. But maybe when people don’t like the incumbent it doesn’t matter who the other side vomits up. They’re going to vote for him anyway.
If this is true, for me the bigger question is why so many people are so sour and hold Biden and Harris responsible for it. None of the external factors, not even inflation or immigration can account for it. Maybe, just maybe it has something to do with the media environment and Trump’s uncanny ability to bullshit people into believing what he wants them to believe? I dunno.
To me it just seems as if too many people in this country are in love with hate. You see it at sporting events and public gatherings and yes, at Trump rallies. Violence and tribalism energizes them. Misogyny and racism are openly celebrated sothey feel free to act out, believing that their negativity and hostility are shared by most people. Now we know that they’re right.
