Month: July 2003

Straight Shooter

I keep reading about how the reason for war was “multicausal” and therefore, we should not be too upset that the weapons of mass destruction haven’t turned up. It was just one of many reasons and since the other reasons are good, this really isn’t that big of a deal.

But, really folks, the weapons issue wasn’t just one of many rationales. It was the Big Kahuna of rationales, so much so that they changed their objective from “regime change” to “disarmament.”

In his only formal press conference on March 6, Bush used the word disarm or disarmament 45 times.

Read the following opening statement from that press conference and then ask yourself why, in light of the fact that no weapons have been found, that people might just be thinking that he misled them about the reasons for war. There may have been multiple causes, but the one the president talked about that night was pretty obviously the threat Saddam presented to the United States with his weapons of mass destruction. And, he said it over and over and over again.

There certainly were other reasons for invading. But to excuse Bush because the underlying reasons may have been reasonable when he repeatedly made the case that the war was about dealing with a threat to the people of the United States is simply outrageous. To do this just one year after 9/11 in order to get the country to unknowingly acquiesce to a risky and expensive long term restructuring of the middle east, based upon nothing more than theoretical think tank models is unconscionable.

Bush did not just emphasize the WMD threat. He unequivocally presented it as the casus belli:

BUSH: Good evening. I’m pleased to take your questions tonight and to discuss with the American people the serious matters facing our country and the world.

This has been an important week on two fronts — on our war against terror. First, thanks to the hard work of American and Pakistani officials, we captured the mastermind of the Sept. 11 attacks against our nation. Khalid Shaikh Mohammed conceived and planned the hijackings and directed the actions of the hijackers. We believe his capture will further disrupt the terror network and their planning for additional attacks.

Second, we have arrived at an important moment in confronting the threat posed to our nation and to peace by Saddam Hussein and his weapons of terror.

In New York tomorrow, the United Nations Security Council will receive an update from the chief weapons inspector. The world needs him to answer a single question: Has the Iraqi regime fully and unconditionally disarmed as required by Resolution 1441 or has it not?

Iraq’s dictator has made a public show of producing and destroying a few missiles, missiles that violate the restrictions set out more than 10 years ago.

Yet our intelligence shows that even as he is destroying these few missiles, he has ordered the continued production of the very same type of missiles.

Iraqi operatives continue to hide biological and chemical agents to avoid detection by inspectors.

In some cases, these materials have been moved to different locations every 12 to 24 hours or placed in vehicles that are in residential neighborhoods.

We know from multiple intelligence sources that Iraqi weapons scientists continue to be threatened with harm should they cooperate with U.N. inspectors.

Scientists are required by Iraqi intelligence to wear concealed recording devices during interviews, and hotels where interviews take place are bugged by the regime.

These are not the actions of a regime that is disarming. These are the actions of a regime engaged in a willful charade. These are the actions of a regime that systematically and deliberately is defying the world.

If the Iraqi regime were disarming, we would know it because we would see it. Iraq’s weapons would be presented to inspectors and the world would witness their destruction.

Instead, with the world demanding disarmament, and more than 200,000 troops positioned near his country, Saddam Hussein’s response is to produce a few weapons for show, while he hides the rest and builds even more.

Inspection teams do not need more time or more personnel. All they need is what they have never received, the full cooperation of the Iraqi regime.

Token gestures are not acceptable. The only acceptable outcome is the one already defined by a unanimous vote of the Security Council: total disarmament.

Great Britain, Spain and the United States have introduced a new resolution stating that Iraq has failed to meet the requirements of Resolution 1441. Saddam Hussein is not disarming. This is a fact. It cannot be denied.

Saddam Hussein has a long history of reckless aggression and terrible crimes. He possess weapons of terror. He provides funding and training and safe haven to terrorists, terrorists who would willing use weapons of mass destruction against America and other peace-loving countries.

Saddam Hussein and his weapons are a direct threat to this country, to our people and to all free people.

If the world fails to confront the threat posed by the Iraqi regime, refusing to use force even as a last resort, free nations would assume… unacceptable risks.

The attacks of Sept.11, 2001, show what the enemies of America did with four airplanes. We will not wait to see what terrorists or terrorist states could do with weapons of mass destruction.

We are determined to confront threats wherever they arise. I will not leave the American people at the mercy of the Iraqi dictator and his weapons.

In the event of conflict, America also accepts our responsibility to protect innocent lives in every way possible.

We will bring food and medicine to the Iraqi people. We will help that nation to build a just government after decades of brutal dictatorship.

The form and leadership of that government is for the Iraqi people to choose. Anything they choose will be better than the misery and torture and murder they have known under Saddam Hussein.

Across the world and in every part of America people of good will are hoping and praying for peace. Our goal is peace for our nation, for our friends and allies, for the people of the Middle East.

People of good will must also recognize that allowing a dangerous dictator to defy the world and harbor weapons of mass murder and terror is not peace at all, it is pretense.

The cause of peace will be advanced only when the terrorists lose a wealthy patron and protector, and when the dictator is fully and finally disarmed.

Tonight I thank the men and women of our armed services and their families.

I know their deployment so far from home is causing hardship for many military families. Our nation is deeply grateful to all who serve in uniform.

Gosh. I wonder where anyone could have gotten the idea that Saddam’s cache of weapons of mass destruction was the reason we were preparing to invade?

Enemies, A Love Story

I imagine that some “conservative” supporters of the recall (and other vaunted examples of California’s penchant for direct democracy) would be quite surprised to find that their pet cause is actually a major tenet of Karl Marx’s concept of perfect socialist democracy.

In 1871 he wrote favorably about The Paris Commune in his book called The Civil War In France, particularly noting its provisions relating to recalling politicians.

He called for the establishment of radically democratic (directly participatory) form of government within which the delegates would be held acountable to their voters by the right to recall at will. He also called for frequent elections because ‘instead of deciding once in three or six years which member of the ruling class was to misrepresent the people in Parliament, universal suffrage was to serve the people … (p.289)’.

As with so many things, the modern “Republican” radicals are using their lifelong enemies’ rhetoric and tactics in service of the rich. You’ve just got to hand it to old Grover…

Update:

Vaara found a copy of Vladimir Ilyich Norquist’s key talking points for 2004.

Intellectual Consistency

Wow. This is a shocker. 96 Republican scholors, lawyers and former government officials believe that impeachment is a constitutional duty when the president uses narrow sophistries and linguistic maneuverings to escape the constitutional rules applicable to him. They argue that popularity should be no impediment to impeachment — indeed the constitution was written in order that popular presidents might be impeached. Has the worm finally turned?

The fundamental tenet by which a free society lives is the rule of law. When the President defies the constitutional rules applicable to him, there must be no escape by narrow sophistries and linguistic maneuvering. The framers devised a mechanism for removing from office any person who violates both his oath of office and his constitutional duties. That mechanism must be respected and used if we are to remain a free and law-abiding nation. The impeachment inquiry must not be defeated by partisan politics and public opinion polls. The Constitution was made in order to remove some subjects from decision by momentary popular sentiment. Impeachment is as much a part of the Constitution as the First Amendment. In fulfilling their constitutional duties, neither the courts nor Congress should be deflected by public opinion polls. If we would not allow polls to silence unpopular speech, neither must we allow polls to excuse and ratify impeachable offenses. Should the House and the Senate shirk their responsibilities, they will establish a precedent for lawless government. That would be both unconscionable and dangerous.

Oh sorry. This was written in 1998 and concerned lying about personal sexual matters. Certainly, using linguistic maneuvering and narrow sophistries to excuse misleading the country into believing they were under serious threat from a foreign nation and using that bogus threat as a rationale for invading and occupying that nation is completely acceptable.

never mind…

Many thanks to the terrific Seeing The Forest for the link.

Oh Sweet Mystery Of Life

You must read the farmer’s romantic fairy tale about the “grinning albino Monacle snake” — the Ann of Coulter, over on Eschaton. It will bring a tear to the eye and a song to the heart.

We Don’t Need No Stinking NIE

It’s very interesting to see the administration quoting at length from the vaunted NIE as if it were a sacred rune. On September 12, 2002, the president went to the UN and proclaimed:

Today, Iraq continues to withhold important information about its nuclear program — weapons design, procurement logs, experiment data, an accounting of nuclear materials and documentation of foreign assistance. Iraq employs capable nuclear scientists and technicians. It retains physical infrastructure needed to build a nuclear weapon. Iraq has made several attempts to buy high-strength aluminum tubes used to enrich uranium for a nuclear weapon. Should Iraq acquire fissile material, it would be able to build a nuclear weapon within a year. And Iraq’s state-controlled media has reported numerous meetings between Saddam Hussein and his nuclear scientists, leaving little doubt about his continued appetite for these weapons

[…]

Delegates to the General Assembly, we have been more than patient. We’ve tried sanctions. We’ve tried the carrot of oil for food, and the stick of coalition military strikes. But Saddam Hussein has defied all these efforts and continues to develop weapons of mass destruction. The first time we may be completely certain he has a — nuclear weapons is when, God forbids, he uses one. We owe it to all our citizens to do everything in our power to prevent that day from coming.

Just 2 days before, however, on the Senate floor, Dick Durbin said:

As a member of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, I am deeply concerned that the intelligence community has not completed the most basic document which is asked of them before the United States makes such a critical life-or-death decision.

It is within the power of the Director of the CIA, George Tenet, to order a national intelligence estimate, known as an NIE. National intelligence estimates bring together all the agencies of the Federal Government involved in intelligence, sits them down, and collects and coordinate all of their information to reach the best possible conclusion he can come up with.

I was stunned to learn last week that we have not produced a national intelligence estimate showing the current state of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. What is incredible, with all of the statements made by members of this administration about those weapons, is the fact that the intelligence community has not been brought together…

Time and again since then as we looked back on last year, we have said we have to be better prepared, with better communications and better coordination of information from outside the country and inside, and bring it all together so we can make the best decision.When we are talking about a possible invasion of Iraq and a war against Iraq, why haven’t we really created the most basic document that we have the power to create in this Government–the national intelligence estimate–so we know exactly what we may be up against in Iraq? It has not been done.

So one was prepared. Apparently, only because Dick Durbin explicitly asked for it:

This morning, I handed a letter to the deputy to Director Tenet asking that he give it to the Director personally, asking that they move as quickly as possible to establish and create this national intelligence estimate. Once it is established, Ithink we should meet on Capitol Hill–the Senate and the House Intelligence Committees. We should have classified hearing on things that can’t be discussed publicly about this NIE, and then a public hearing as well to share with the American people, without compromising in any way the safety and security of the United States, as much information as we possibly can about the current state of affairs in Iraq.

Two days later, Bush was proclaiming to the UN, quite without reservation, that (amongst other things) Saddam would be able to make a bomb within a year if he could obtain fissile material.

So, the NIE is not exactly the best evidence for why the administration believed that Iraq was a serious threat because the NIE didn’t exist until a Democrat specifically requested it. The administration was quite “convinced” of Iraq’s WMD threat long before it was produced. So convinced, apparently, that they didn’t feel the need to produce one themselves before they launched their Iraq invasion marketing plan last September.

Durbin said they needed to show their evidence before the congress voted. It would appear that this NIE was designed specifically for the purpose of convincing wavering Senators and may explain why they included such absurdities as the Niger yellowcake nonsense as well as why Condi didn’t bother to read it. Clearly, it was not a document the administration believed was important for their own purposes.

Correction: In the post below, I state that you cannot vote for a replacement if you do not vote for the recall. This is incorrect. You can vote against the recall and also vote for Issa or whomever.

Also, think about one other thing. Davis cannot be on this ballot. But, in order for him to retain his legally obtained office, more than 50% of the voters in this election must vote against the recall. The replacement, however, can win with a plurality. So, in effect, 49% of the voters could vote for Davis by voting against the recall, yet Darrell Issa could actually become the governor with only 33% of the vote.

This is the democracy we want to export all around the world?

Recall Madness

I’m actually a bit surprised that Kevin is even considering voting for the recall, because while the scheduled recall election is a done deal, the result is far from certain. The vote is whether to recall Davis. Only if you vote for the recall are you allowed to vote for Davis’ replacement. If Kevin decides that this is a good opportunity to replace Davis with someone more to his liking then his vote will count as a support of the recall process as much as a vote for Dick Riordan. That seems to me to be a huge mistake and one that overlooks the much bigger issues at stake.

This unprecedented recall election is not actually about Davis vs. Issa/Schwartzenegger/Simon or somebody better. It’s about whether it is acceptable that some rich guy finances a petition drive (with paid signature gatherers) in order to overturn an undisputed legal election so that he might get himself (or somebody else) elected with far fewer votes instead. It’s of a piece with some other nasty political shenannigans we’ve seen recently — like impeachment over a blowjob, refusing to count legal votes in Florida and redistricting whenever you get enough votes to do it. These things are chipping away at our system in ways that can potentially cause disaster in the not too distant future. When you start screwing with the actual levers of democracy — the predictablity of elections, the integrity of the electoral system and a universal acceptance of the results, you have a big problem on your hands.

This is not the theoretical “oh what’s the use” kind of common griping about how politics are making people apathetic. This is the actual, literal manipulation of the electoral system. The principle that “the guy who gets the most votes wins the office for a set term” is really becoming subject to debate.

And as for Davis, it behooves everybody to remember that (regular) elections are about choosing between the candidates who are offered. If you remember that, you should also remember who the Republicans offered the people of California in the last two elections — Dan Lundgren and Bill Simon. Given those choices again today, can any Democrat say that we shouldn’t have voted for Davis? Should the GOP be allowed to rectify their mistake (and not incidentally bypass their own hardline right wing) by basically just calling for a new election for no other reason than that they can?

Now, many Democrats argue that the Democratic Party shouldn’t have nominated Davis either, but that is very easy to say in retrospect. I’m sure all parties regret nominating a politician who becomes unpopular. But at this point in history, it’s almost suicidal to sanction throwing out the certified results of any undisputed and orderly election process in favor of street corner petition appeals to emotion. Because if anyone thinks that this will be an isolated incident, not to be repeated, they are not paying attention to recent history. After all, the GOP had no problem impeaching a popular President and if the rules of the Senate had only required that a plurality vote could have replaced him with a Republican, you can be sure they would have convicted and removed him as fast as you can say Trent Lott.

This recall in California is just the most recent example of GOP power politics in action and it is only logical to assume that they will be emboldened to continue in this vein (and that the Democrats will have no choice but to join in) if the people reward this type of manipulation merely because, in this instance, the guy who won the last election has a low approval rating.

(And, by the way, Governors all over the country are showing low approval ratings, particularly second termers who are being blamed for the economic woes of their states. It can’t all be because Gray Davis is creepy. Clearly, something bigger is happening. Throwing away the principle of scheduled elections on the dubious notion that somebody could do better in this environment doesn’t seem to me to be a very good trade-off.)

If this recall succeeds, it will be very hard to put the genie back in the bottle. It is always possible to gather 12% of those who voted in the last election to sign such a petition because there was always a losing candidate in the previous election whose supporters could be persuaded to sign up for a mulligan.

If it succeeds, therefore, I’ve decided that I will sign up on the very first day to work for the Committee to Recall Darryl Issa/Arnold Schwartzenegger/Bill Simon or whoever because it will be obvious that this is a situation that requires both parties to suffer from the loophole for it to be closed (as with the independent counsel law which stood until both parties paid the price for its unconstitutional, undemocratic lack of accountability.) We will have no choice but to literally illustrate for the people of California why this concept is costly and absurd and why it is necessary to have regularly scheduled elections and honor the results of the returns short of criminal behavior.

(And, don’t ever think that Gray Davis will walk quietly into the sunset. Whether you like him or hate him, it is indisputable that he is one of the toughest, streetfighting politicians in the country. He will hit back with everything he has.)

It seems to me that democracy, like most everything else in life, depends more upon the good will and honorable intentions of the people than explicit laws and official prohibitions. If we truly begin to believe that politics are nothing more than a partisan zero sum game, in which no overarching philosophical view of the democratic process rules our decisions — and if winning at all cost, whether through loopholes in the law or parsing of the legal meaning of election statutes becomes standard operating procedure, then we are basically giving up the idea of citizenship and a non-partisan electoral process. This is not what we need in this era of post modern media manipulation and big money influence.

All we citizens really have is the franchise. If we continue to let them do end runs around election results, we will wake up one morning and find that it no longer means anything.

*(Here is a nice rundown of the California Recall Law. One thing that really fries me is that you don’t have to already be registered to vote in order to vote for the recall — you can register up to 15 days before the election. This means that even though I voted in the last election like a good citizen, somebody who didn’t even bother to register, much less vote, can come in and overturn the results less than a year later. This is the kind of thing that makes even a political junkie like me wonder if it really makes any difference if I vote at all.)

Legendary Miscalculation

Updating my post from yesterday, can I just say what a useless exercise the disseminiation of these pictures was, except to the extent that it gave the cable news shows some tabloid blood ‘n gore to fixate upon on the day the 9/11 report was released? In fact, it may have just made everything appear more suspicious. The Washington Post reports:

U.S. military official said “facial reconstruction” was used to repair wounds, particularly to the face of the elder son Uday, which had disfigured the bodies shown originally to the public in photographs taken by soldiers after the battle.

An uncharacteristic beard on the body of Qusay, seen in those U.S. pictures, had been shaved off, leaving a mustache.

Inside the tent, U.S. officials said it was standard practice to use morticians putty to prepare bodies for viewing and was not intended to fool the Iraqi people.

But while it may be common in the United States, the move is unheard of in the Arab world. That could affect Washington’s efforts to quash Iraqi conspiracy theories that the bodies are not in fact those of the once powerful and hated sons of Saddam, who is believed to be still in hiding in Iraq.

U.S. officials have already played down the importance of visually identifying the men, saying their dental and medical records positively identified the brothers. Four top Saddam aides have also made positive identification, they say.

“You can make anyone look like anyone else,” one U.S. official said, insisting the medical evidence was compelling.

I am pretty much convinced that the bodies were them. And, even it they weren’t, I don’t suppose it makes a whole lot of difference in the long run.

But, there is an ongoing problem with the way the Bush administration handles things like this. They do not seem to realize that by making such a huge deal out of these individuals they are creating folk heroes amongst the very young men who would do us harm. You do not have to have a doctorate in psychology to recognize that by personalizing all of these dangers, whether it is bin Laden as “the evil one”, Saddam’s sons, the psychopathic playboys, or Saddam himself as an omnipotent tyrant who is a threat to the entire world, they are actually recruiting for their cause and building a mythic image for the enemy. (You may have noticed that they are doing this again. Just as with bin Laden and Saddam, Junior’s statements about Liberia have focused almost entirely on Charles Taylor.)

Far better to be dry, straightforward and impersonal rather than succumb to the rather puerile temptation to characterize threats and potential dangers as being embodied by particular persons. The danger for us in doing that should be obvious by now.

If we kill them and start crowing to the rooftops about it, we provoke suspicion that our “special effects” experts have phonied up the proof because we appear to be so desperate to prove what we say. And, once the idea sets in that we didn’t actually kill them, their legend becomes even bigger. And, whether the legend consists of terrible cruelty and ruthlessness or one of idealistic revolutionary leadership, it’s a huge mistake to think that just because we say these guys are dead that they lose their power.

And, that is a yellowcakewalk compared to dealing with the heroic status of a man the president of the United States personally declared to be “Wanted: Dead or Alive,” and who remains at large almost 2 years and 2 wars later. Added to his legend as the man who singlehandedly led the Mujahadeen to defeat the Soviet Empire, amongst disaffected Muslim youth, this man is now a superhero.

There is probably nothing we can do about the rumors and flights of fancy that surround the disappearance of powerful enemies. But, surely it isn’t very smart to build up their legend ourselves unless we can be very, very sure that we will be able to capture them alive, thereby proving irrefutably to their followers and the world that they are nothing more than simple human beings who have no special power and who cannot run from justice. Since we cannot guarantee such a thing, it would be far more prudent to focus on the movement/government/ideology than on the particular leader. Then, if we were able to capture them alive, we could use the forum of a world court to prove not only the evil of the perpetrator, but their essential weakness and impotence as well.

If they wind up dead and we shrug it off as just another enemy eliminated, at least we aren’t adding to the rumor mill by wildly pumping our fists like it’s a huge victory, thereby giving our enemies a reason to fuel the conspiracy theories.

I have the feeling that if grownups truly were in charge, we wouldn’t be seeing spectacles like that which we witnessed yesterday. The constant rhetorical high fiving by the administration, especially the President, is as shallow and meaningless as a street corner pick-up game of basketball. Lotsa bravado, not much talent.

These people do not know the meaning of “playing it cool.”

Pics

Is it just me, or could these pictures be anybody? Certainly, the reporters on CNN, even on the defense dept. beat, didn’t have a clue which son the pictures were supposed to represent when they came over the wire. They dutifully reported the identity when told, however, as if it had been obvious all along. Wolf Blitzer made the identification himself based upon Uday’s “trademark short haircut.” There’s an unimpeachable identification for you.

Clearly, the reason the administration declined to release the photos at first was not because of their great sensitivity to our delicate feelings. It was because they were likely to raise more questions than they answered.

And again, a bigger problem for us generally is that the new US reputation for hyping, spinning and lying on important matters of national security, intelligence and military matters makes it a little bit difficult to persuade people that they should just take our word for it.

Via Eschaton I see that the decision to kill the sons outright (rather than make a serious effort to capture them) is beginning to see some criticism. This operation seems to me to be the very thing that Rummy’s vaunted fast moving Special Forces are designed to do. Apparently, some of the Special Forces guys agree:

“The whole operation was a cockup,” said a British intelligence officer. “There was no need to go after four lightly armed men with such overwhelming firepower. They would have been much more useful alive.”

[…]

“Bollocks,” said one former Special Forces soldier. “A SWAT team could have taken them. It didn’t need a company.” …

Infight to the Finish

CIA vs NSC vs State vs AEI vs …

Powell Backs U.S. Role to Aid Liberia

The secretary [Colin Powell] acknowledged that American involvement would be primarily on a humanitarian basis, but he said action was necessary to avoid another catastrophe comparable to the carnage in Rwanda.

“In Liberia, if you ask the question, `What is our strategic, vital interest?’ it would be hard to define in that way,” he told the newspaper. “But we do have an interest in making sure that West Africa doesn’t simply come apart. We do have an interest in showing the people of Africa that we can support efforts to stabilize a tragic situation as we work with others to bring relief to people — people who are desperately in need.”

The secretary expressed regret that the administration had failed to agree quickly on a strategy with Liberia’s neighbors to stabilize the country.

Looks like our Harvard MBA-CEO-failed-at-every-business-he-ever-tried Prez is having a little bit of trouble reining in his unruly adminstration. For some unknown reason competing factions seem to be under the impression that their boss doesn’t have a clear vision of his own and is, therefore, subject to manipulation.

How embarrassing.

Gentlemen, start your livers!

I’d like to propose a toast to Mr. Joshua Green whose article in the Washington Monthly called “The Bookie of Virtue” led to a record 2 months of William Bennett-free media.

Cheers!