Month: February 2006

Civil War

by tristero

Ever optimistic, the Times surveys opinions on what Civil War would be like in Iraq if civil war comes. While there is much that is interesting here, I am also struck by the amount of naivete on display* and the poor organization of the article. For example, this would appear to be perhaps the most striking and important “news” to impart to Americans:

[Kenneth] Pollack cautions that a civil war could prove especially painful for the Shiites. There is no reason, he says, to assume that they won’t fight among themselves. The three major Shiite movements each have militias. Sometimes they have clashed… “There are a thousand Shiite militias that could do battle against each other, splintering even the southern part of Iraq.”

The way the story’s usually been played in the US press is that it’s Shia vs. Sunni. Not so. The situation is far more complex. So where does the Times put this important information? Near the end of the article.

While Pollack is right to point out the dangers of infra-Shia strife, he is wrong elsewhere in the piece to claim that such strife is the first thing one would see in an Iraqi civil war – Sunnis may be a minority, but they were, and still are, a powerful minority. The first thing you’d see, obviously would be something close to what we are, indeed, seeing: increasingly violent actions between Shia and Sunnis. Nor is Pollack accurate in opining that “a civil war could prove especially painful for the Shiites.” If nearly any Shia faction wins a violent civil war, Sunnis will experience major league political repression. As in state sponsored torture and murder. If anything, it’s the Sunnis who will find a civil war “especially painful,” assuming they lose. And, among many other factors, it is their desperation – rightly, they don’t trust a “legit” Shia government to treat them well – that is behind their present attacks.

Pollack’s emphasis on Shia-Shia conflict seems an academic distortion, going for the unusual angle. But that’s nothing compared to this unattributed whopper:

Some experts, however, say Iran may understand the dangers of a war. Even President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s denunciation of the bombing of the Shiite shrine in Samarra last week, in which he blamed Zionists rather than Sunnis, could be seen as an act of restraint, these experts say — an effort to play to Shiite anger without fanning flames between Iraq’s Islamic communities.

Now this is such an unspeakably stupid analysis of what Iran is up to that it could only come from a high Bush administration official. I’m quite serious. Another clue it’s from a Bushite is its sense of loony “accentuate the positive” thinking. And indeed, the context gives a pretty clear clue where this idiocy probably came from. Backing up one paragraph we read:

While Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has proclaimed that the world has isolated Iran more than ever because of its nuclear ambitions, Iran has in fact tightened relationships with it local allies as events in Iraq have played out. In recent months, Iran has been deepening its alliance with Syria and the Shiite movement Hezbollah in Lebanon, and now it appears ready to strike up a friendship, backed by financing, with a Hamas-led Palestinian Authority.

Some experts, however, say Iran may understand the dangers of a war. Even President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s denunciation …

Am I saying Condoleeza Rice is the moron who sees hope in Iran’s anti-Zionism/semitism? No, not exactly. But anyone who is making the fundamental error Rice is making – focusing on Iran’s “world” isolation while downplaying its strengthening of regional ties, including to Hamas – is quite capable of misconstruing Ahmadinejad’s remarks to mean Iran is not doing whatever it can to grasp as much purchase within Iraq as possible. And if it came to a war that led to Iraq’s total disintegration, it is unclear what Iran stands to lose.

The article also floats the idea of a negotiated breakup of Iraq into three states. Good luck. Who gets the oil regions, boys and girls? Who gets the desert? And who moves? And who sez Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran are just gonna twiddle their fingers and not interfere?

There is much more interesting speculation and detail about how truly incredibly complex the mess in Iraq is, and how few alternatives exist that won’t quickly lead to disaster for the people of the region, and the people of the United States. Will Turkey invade to defend the Turkomen against oppression if Iraq’s Kurds officially set up on their own? Will the Arab League step in to intervene? And looming above it all are nukes. Iranian nukes coming soon. Potential Sunni Arab nukes depending on how the situation worsens (calling Dr. A. Q. Khan!).

So, Mr. Tom Friedman, are you enjoying the real live political experiment now? So, Mr. George Packer, still think that those of us who absolutely knew Bush/Iraq would open the gates of hell have “second-rate minds?”

Hey, y’never know! Maybe Ahmadinejad really was sending a signal that Iran wasn’t interested in an Iraq civil war when he blamed Zionists – Israel -for the attack. True, that could be because he wants to attack Israel first, but at least it’s not supporting civil war in Iraq!

Yes, it’s possible. And maybe there really is a Bigfoot. And maybe tomorrow, cold fusion will work and, as Woody Allen predicted in Sleeper, cigarette smoking will turn out to improve your health and longevity. You never know…

*I am no expert on the Middle East. Why am I so confident many of the “expert opinions” in this article are naive? Here goes:

To be deemed an expert on the Middle East, one would assume that the prerequisite would be fluency in several dialects of Arabic, fluency in Persian, fluency in Hebrew, and considerable time spent living and working in the Middle East. But one would be wrong. Most American “experts” in the public domain -there are real experts in universities, I assume – know one of those languages. At best, two. Many can’t read or speak any of them, and rely on assistants and clipping services for information on Middle Eastern press and mass media. Incredibly, language fluency is still considered not a requirement for marketing yourself as a pundit whose specialty is the Middle East. And many people defend this.

In my book, there’s a word to describe anyone who claims expertise in Middle Eastern affairs who can’t read Iranian or Iraqi newspapers, or needs a translator to understand al Jazeera, or whose experience of the region is limited to a guided tour of the pyramids or an overnight stay at the King David Hotel: phony.

Simple commonsense tells me that Iran stands to gain quite a bit from Iraq’s disintegration and stands to lose little even if there is furious intra-Shia civil war in Iraq. Simple commonsense tells me that when Iran sends a message to the world that Zionists destroyed the Shiite shrine, they are clearly trying to unify Muslims against a common enemy – Israel – and they are not saying anything, one way or the other, about the desirability of Iraqi civil war. Commonsense also tells me that when Iran’s president sends a message to the world, that message is intended primarily for Muslims and that US analysts make a fundamental error when it assumes “the world” means us.

I’ll gladly defer to genuine expert opinion on any of this, but I doubt that any seriously real scholar would make assertions like the silly ones cited above. Pollack’s sense that Shias would endure “special pain” in a civil war is vacuous and dishonest, used only to hype his superior knowledge of the complexities, but shows not a trace of any superior understanding. For one thing, “speical pain” is empirically unverifiable. Furthermore, his argument is naive in its assumption that a Shia/Sunni strife can never get bloody enough to meet most standards for what is meant by the term “civil war.”I’m afraid we are seeing Pollack proved wrong on a daily basis right now.

As for the anonymous misconstrual of Iran’s remarks, that is less naive than it is delusional.

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Update: Pardon our dust. Yes, I know it’s a bit of a mess. Please bear with me. People much smarter than I are working on bringing this site in to the second half of the ot years. Thanks you for your patience.

And, no. The new design will look nothing like the one some of you saw earlier. That was merely a placeholder.

Never mind

This is not a permanent template. Please don’t waste your time commenting on its terrible/wonderful look.

I’ll tell you when the real transition happens. And then you can complain all you want. Comments will return I promise.

Nothing to see here folks. Move along.

The Ship That Sailed

by digby

If you haven’t had any fun today, click on Lou Dobbs arguing with Joe Klein about port security. Klein, the pretend liberal in a balanced group consisting of Republican David Gergen, Republican Ed Rollins and Republican Dobbs, insists that if we don’t let this Dubai deal go forward, we will be causing ourselves some real trouble in the arab world. They are very sensitive to this kind of disrespect, you see. Changing the rules midstream is going to cause more terrorists.

He’s so right. America should do everything it can not to foment terrorism.

Meanwhile, violence and fear sweep through Iraq:

The waves of vengeance have left the majority Shiite and the minority Sunni communities feeling victimized and deeply angry with each other. Both are also resentful of the United States, which has been working to ease the animosity and coax Iraq’s various ethnic and religious groups into a cooperative government.

“The Americans also abandoned us extremely. They could have put some of their vehicles to protect the mosques — they have the forces to do that,” Khalaf Ulayyan, general secretary of the Sunni Iraqi National Dialogue Council, said at a news conference. “How does a civil war start? It starts like this.”

What a shame.

But let’s keep our priorities straight here. What we need to do is make sure that Dubai’s feelings aren’t hurt or things might just hurtle out of control in the mideast. We wouldn’t want that.

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Braindead Hotshot

by digby

Rita Cosby said that it’s wrong that the Republicans in South Carolina are asking for church rolls to target the evangelical vote but it’s just as wrong that Democrats are targeting the “hoodlum vote.”

Yes, the hoodlum vote. When a plainly confused Chris Matthews asked what she meant, she explained that Democrats were going through voter rolls to find felons to vote for them.

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Rude Lefty Bloggers

by digby

A mainstream Republican gives a speech:

Coulter even made comments about the physical appearances of those who were removed.

“Another attractive Democrat,” she said as junior Sean Hall, a man wearing a blonde wig, white sheet and a sign that said “Coultergeist” was removed.

“I think we should have saved the ushers some time and just removed all the ugly people,” she said.

During her question-and-answer session, Coulter responded to both fans and protesters. One comment that drew strong audience reactions came from a young man who asked her if she didn’t like Democrats, wouldn’t it just be better to have a dictatorship? Coulter responded with a jab at the way the student talked.

“You don’t want the Republicans in power, does that mean you want a dictatorship, gay boy?” she said.

The well trained young Republican borg had a ready defense:

IU College Republicans President Shane Kennedy defended Coulter’s comments by stressing that the speech was for entertainment and attendees should have expected Coulter to say controversial comments.

“I think the guy could have been more respectful to her,” he said. “I mean, we already know that she was going to be controversial and she was just saying what people were thinking. If you are going to talk like you are gay, then Ann Coulter is going to call you gay. Of course, she said it in a spiteful tone, but it was expected.”

On the other hand, she was quite upset that she had to deal with dissent:

“You are paying me to give a speech,” she said. “I mean, if you don’t want me to keep talking, that’s fine, but I think I’ll just do the speech. Hopefully, the idiot liberals will be out of here by the second half of the speech.

“You guys are doing a great job.” she said sarcastically later to auditorium ushers. “I guess they did hire Democrats as ushers.”

In other news, the mainstream media continues to wring their lace handkerchiefs about rude liberal readers.

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Jingo Blowback

the digby

Last night Kevin approvingly linked to the same William Greider piece that I did and said:

On a related note, it makes me feel almost nostalgic to watch the toxic stew of cherry picking, half truths, and outright misrepresentations currently being used to demonize the UAE as a virtual arm of al-Qaeda. You know what it reminds me of? The way Bush & Co. tried to sell Saddam Hussein as Osama’s best buddy in the Middle East. It’s poetic watching the Bushies squirm when they’re on the receiving end of this stuff.

I think this comparison is off base. To the extent it is demagogic, this UAE outcry falls into the category of political ox-goring, the likes of which are seen every day in our system. Comparing it to the lies, distortion and institutional manipulation that led the nation into a war is vastly overstating it.

This would be better compared to the white house having a fake case of the vapors over Newsweak reporting that Korans had been defaced at Guantanamo and “causing” the riots in the mid-east. The head of the joint chiefs of staff said the whole thing was used as an excuse by the heavies in Afghan politics, but that didn’t stop the administration from lecturing the press about revealing these accusations. Many people accepted the idea that Newsweak erred, particularly when it was shown that the report was unreliable. Bush and his boys had been saying that revealing information about torture and abuse was playing into the enemies’ hands for months, so this fit perfectly with their “loose lips sink ship” rhetoric. In this case, Bush has been saying “we’re fighting ‘them’ over there so we don’t have to fight ‘them’ over here” for years. Saying now that it’s ok to bring “them” into our ports creates cognitive dissonence. They have only themselves to blame for the outcry.

In both the UAE port outcry or the Newsweak outcry, the demagogic argument coming from the administration is that these things will harm our image in the middle east and make it more difficult for us to prosecute the war on terror. It works fine as long as it doesn’t conflict with one of their other demagogic arguments. But neither of these flaps come close to the invasion of Iraq for sheer bad faith and demagogic overkill.

Besides, there is a legitimate reason to be wary of the UAE being involved with US port management and calling it racism, in particular, is puerile nonsense. Like Pakistan, another close ally in the war on terror, the UAE have been playing both ends against the middle for a long time. We all understand that and accept it. They have to deal with the vicissitudes of their own political situation which doesn’t always accrue to our benefit. Welcome to the real world where the black and white formulation of “you’re either with us or you’re with the terrorists” is shown as the bullshit it always was. As Yglesias says here:

… the UAE isn’t a strategic partner of the United States in the way that the UK is. The number of countries who have British-style security relationships with the United States can be counted on one hand, if not one finger. We share intelligence with the British that we wouldn’t share with Portugal, much less Dubai. An ally as close as Israel has been known to screw us over in defense and intelligence matters because, hey, countries have different interests. A private British firm operates in the context of the rule of law; a state-owned enterprise in Dubai . . . not so much. These are different countries in a thousand ways that have nothing to do with skin color. Pretending not to see the difference is childish and absurd. That a country hosts American military bases proves almost nothing — we have bases in all kinds of places.

I would suggest that if the UAE is holding access to their ports over our heads as a way to ensure this deal goes through, then we may have to evaluate whether they are even the nominal ally in the war on terror we think they are. That’s called blackmail. They can’t interfere with our domestic policies any more thaan we can interfere with theirs.

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Back To Normal

by digby

Ok, you are not going crazy. You did see a different template on this site earlier today. This blog’s oging to be changing a bit over the next little while. There may be some glitches for a while. That was a glitch.

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Remedial Journalism

by digby

Gosh, the Republicans must be so pleased with CNN’s new reporter Brian Todd. Discussing Libby’s motion that contends Fitzgerald lacks authority to bring charges because proper procedure were not followed, Todd asserted:

“Here’s the procedure: He or she has to be appointed by the president. He or she has to be confirmed by the senate. He or she has to answer to top justice officials whenever they want to bring and indictment of grant immunity. None of these things have occurred in the case of Mr Fitzgerald. He was appointed by an acting Attorney general. He was never confirmed by the Senate. He has had sweeping power in this case to do as he chooses.”

I guess he didn’t have time to check the Department of Justice Web site:

Patrick J. Fitzgerald began serving as the United States Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois on September 1, 2001. The United States Senate confirmed his nomination by unanimous consent and President Bush signed his commission on October 29, 2001.

He was named special counsel by an acting attorney general because the attorney general recused himself from the case.

Here’s what the GAO had to say about Fitzgerald’s mandate:

“The parameters of his authority and independence are defined in the appointment letters which delegate to Special Counsel Fitzgerald all (plenary) the authority of the Attorney General with respect to the Department’s investigation into the alleged unauthorized disclosure of a CIA employee’s identity with the direction that he exercise such authority independent of the supervision or control of any officer of the Department. [13]. In addition, Department officials informed us that the express exclusion of Special Counsel Fitzgerald from the application of 28 C.F.R. Part 600, which contains provisions that might conflict with the notion that the Special Counsel in this investigation possesses all the power of the Attorney General, contributes to the Special Counsel’s independence. [14] Thus, Special Counsel Fitzgerald need not follow the Department’s practices and procedures if they would subject him to the approval of an officer or employee of the Department. For example, 28 C.F.R. 600.7 requires that a Special Counsel consult with the Attorney General before taking particular actions.”

That took me five minutes with Google. I would imagine that Brian Todd could have had some flunky do the same thing before he proclaimed that Fitzgerald’s appointment hadn’t followed this procedure. It doesn’t prove anything, of course, but it does show that there might just be some legitimate differences of opinion as to whether or not their claim has merit. You don’t have to be a lawyer to know that the law requiring that the special counsel be appointed by the president and confirmed by the senate meant that he or she must be a US Attorney, not that he or she must be a special appointment by the president to investigate his own administration. That wouldn’t exactly make sense, now would it?

It’s theoretically possible that a judge will rule in Libby’s favor on this, but it is highly unlikely. You’d think that Todd would have at least picked up a phone this morning and called a legal analyst who might clue him in on the other side’s arguments. When he said/she said makes sense — as in a legal case — they don’t do it. When it comes to global warming or intelligent design they fall all overthemselves giving equal time to hucksters and fools.

Why do journalists have such a hard time understanding these distinctions?

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Civil War

Khalizad is worried

“What we’ve seen in the past two days, the attack has had a major impact here, getting everyone’s attention that Iraq is in danger,” Mr. Khalilzad said in a conference call with reporters.

The country’s leaders, he added, “must come together, they must compromise with each other to bring the people of Iraq together and save this country.”

Mr. Khalilzad’s comments are the most explicit acknowledgment so far by an American official of the instability of the situation, and the fragility of the entire American enterprise here. The killings and assaults across Iraq that began Wednesday have amounted to the worst sectarian violence since the American invasion.

…In the deadliest assault, 47 people returning from a protest were pulled off buses south of Baghdad on Wednesday and shot in the head, an Interior Ministry official said Thursday. Three journalists from Al Arabiya, the Arab satellite network, were abducted and killed Wednesday in Samarra, near the ruined shrine. Seven American soldiers were also killed Wednesday in unrelated attacks involving roadside bombs.

Political and religious leaders, including President Jalal Talabani and Moktada al-Sadr, the Shiite cleric whose followers are believed to be involved in much of the anti-Sunni violence, called for restraint.

Bring it on, indeed. A terrible situation, and a confused one, in which al-Sadr, of all people, feels compelled to urge restraint.

For the purpose of discussion, if Khalizad is this blunt, we should probably assume that reality is far, far worse. Iraq is gone, or at the very least, rapidly moving that way.

Now what? Three states, Shia, Sunni, and Kurd? A violent, anarchic “state of nature”? How will humanitarian aid reach the sufferers if there is no Iraq left? What are the short term/long term implications for terrorism both within the Middle East and against the US and US citizens? What can be done, in any event, to counter the development of a disintegrated Iraq becoming a breeding ground for terrorism. Are efforts to “save” Iraq a priori doomed to failure?

And aside from the questions of humanitarian aid, the most crucial question: in a post-Bush world, what is the United States’ – our – moral obligation to the people of the former Iraq?

Thomas Friedman once said that it’s not every day you get to see a political experiment in action. Well Tom, here it is. Happy?

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Extra! Extra! Neoconservatism Discovered To Be Screaming Yellow Bonkers!

by tristero

Why are the so-called “conservative intellectuals” in the United States so hellbent on reinventing a square wheel? Anyone with half a brain and half an education knows better than to bother. But there they are, with their T-squares marking off 89 degree angles – can’t even get that straight – and sawing away for years on one patently idiotic idea or another before finally announcing what liberals have known all along: It was a patently idiotic idea.

For the latest, here’s Francis Fukuyama’s epiphany. Turns out neoconservatism is… a really bad idea. Who knew? Well I knew, and I didn’t need tens of thousands of deaths in Iraq to know it. And so I think a prayer is called for:

Dear God,

Please deliver us from the hideous locust plague of conservative pseudo-intellectuals. Sinners we may be in Thine eyes, and unworthy of thy Divine Love, but Jesus Kee-rist! Cut us some friggin’ slack, already! Fire and brimstone, eternal damnation, I ain’t gonna argue with you. But, seriously, God, we really don’t deserve any more Fukuyamas, y’know? So ease up.

Please.

Love,

Tristero