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Month: April 2008

Syria’s The New Iran Which Is The New Iraq

by tristero

Glenn says what needs to be said about the Bush propaganda in re: the claims that NoKo was helping Syria build a nuclear reactor. And just what the hell is meant by “low confidence,” anyway, as in:

two senior intelligence officials acknowledged that the evidence had left them with no more than “low confidence” that Syria was preparing to build a nuclear weapon.

Does it mean they think there’s a slim chance, based on evidence that Syria’s preparing to build a nuke, or do they mean they have low confidence in the evidence, and besides, what is the rough probability associated with low confidence? 10%? 2%? .00000000000014%? What?

Bottom line: There is absolutely no reason to assume that the Bush administration is telling the truth and every reason to believe they’re lying. Let Bush produce convincing evidence. So far, he’s got bupkis and the media really shouldn’t print any Bush nonsense of the Powell-at-the-UN kind without strong disclaimers.

Ugh

by digby

Via Vet Voice:

The Fayetteville (NC) Observer reported on this today. The video was made by Edward Frawley, the father of a sergeant in the 82nd Airborne Division who returned from Afghanistan on April 13 and is among the soldiers now living in the barracks. “This is unbelievable,” Frawley says in the video. “It’s disgusting. It makes me mad as hell. If these buildings were in any city in America and were called apartments, dormitories, they would be condemned.” Tom Earnhardt, a spokesman for the 82nd Airborne Division, declined to comment publicly this morning, but he said the Army would respond later today.

Here’s the video.

With a trillion tax dollars being spent on the military this is obscene.

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Pivot Point

by digby

From the unsolicited advice department.

I heard an interesting passing observation from John Harwood on MSNBC in which he more or less characterized Senator Obama’s campaign as a process “reform” campaign that may be losing a little steam as economic events overtake his theme of post partisan transcendence. I think there may be some truth in that. When Obama conceived of his campaign, political reform and ending the war in Iraq were the winning Democratic messages coming off of the 2006 election. (And it’s not to say that they are no longer issues at all; Iraq is certainly likely to take center stage again simply because it’s McCain’s white whale.) But some people are starting to get seriously worried about their own lives and when that happens they become skeptical that abstract assertions about “fixing Washington” is the way to fix their problems.

When Obama won Wisconsin, I assumed he had pulled together the Democratic coalition and that Texas and Ohio would prove that. But since that primary, events have overtaken his thematic campaign. Gas prices are rising dramatically. The stock market has been volatile. The housing market just gets worse. Working people are starting to get nervous (they are always much closer to financial ruin than the professional class.) His “change” campaign may seem a bit distant and abstract in the current circumstances. Unlike Perot, who ran as a reformer in a recessionary climate in 1992, Obama doesn’t have the decades of business experience to use as a proxy for successful economic stewardship, so he probably needs to be more explicit in his economic message now. (And while Perot got 20% of the vote, his reform message was never taken up — it was his deficit message that penetrated. With the help of other rich powerful jackasses.)

This problem is correctable. Senator Obama probably needs to ramp up his personal energy, which has been flagging, (people need to believe the president is superhuman in times of stress) and start talking about bread and butter solutions with a touch of fiery populism. That’s where the mood is leading. It’s boring as hell to the media and the comfortable creative class types who are looking for something transcendent, but it’s what’s necessary at times like these.

It will almost certainly be necessary in the fall, no matter who wins the Democratic nomination. When the economy goes south, a lot of voters actually want a big helping of wonk with their inspiration. (Maybe it gives them reassurance that the people they are voting for know what they’re doing.)

I maintain my belief that this campaign is being driven by seismic forces in the political firmament that transcend personality. This isn’t 1972 or 1984 or even 1988, no matter what people say. The Democrats aren’t running against Republican incumbents or even a popular Republican predecessor. The economy is rapidly deteriorating. We are in the midst of a moneypit, quagmire overseas and there actually are terrorists out there who require attention. Oh — and the US is now considered to be a force for evil in the world due to the fact that we kidnap people off the streets of foreign countries, torture them and keep them in prison without trials or any hope of being set free. Oh, and we invade countries based on lies.

We are in a hell of a mess and the country knows exactly who is responsible for it. They will logically vote accordingly. But with the economy now a huge part of the equation, I don’t think political reform is the best campaign theme for Democrats. It’s early enough for him to pivot off reform and put some meat on the bones of the Hope and Change message. But he should do it soon. The Democratic candidate can ride to victory on a tsunami, but he or she still needs to stay with the wave.

*By the way, McCain is also a “reform” candidate and he can’t successfully pivot off of it because he’s trapped in failed GOP orthodoxy on the economy. His approach to reform is “pulling the parties in a room together and cracking some heads until they do what I tell them to do.” There are a lot of Americans who will believe that’s the best way to reform the way Washington works. (Especially cranky guys who like to tell everyone else what to do.) He’s going to go head to head with Obama on reform in the fall and I don’t know if Obama will actually have the advantage. The issues of the economy and health care are the Democrats’ for the taking. They should take it.

Update: I hadn’t actually read this Krugman column before I wrote this, but as readers point out it makes some similar observations.

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His Historical Legacy

by digby

The creep Scalia can run, but he can’t hide:

Justice Antonin Scalia, in an interview to be shown on Sunday, defended the U.S. Supreme Court ruling’s that gave George W. Bush the presidency and said he was not trying to impose his personal views on abortion.

Scalia was interviewed for the CBS News show “60 Minutes,” an appearance timed to coincide with the publication on Monday of the book he coauthored, “Making Your Case: The Art of Persuading Judges.”

[…]

Scalia repeated his earlier statement that people should “get over” the court’s ruling in 2000 that halted Florida’s vote recount, giving the presidential election to Republican Bush over Democrat Al Gore.

“I say nonsense,” Scalia said, when asked about critics who say the 5-4 ruling was based on politics and not justice. “Get over it. It’s so old by now.”

Nev. Er. That decision will be hung around his neck like a dead albatross all the way down through the rest of history until the day the world ends.

It proved he personally was nothing more than a cheap partisan hack. He knows it. He even uses the old cheap partisan hack slogan, “get over it.” The court disgraced itself and the Republican party showed the country and the world that they no longer cared about legitimacy.

If his good pal Osama bin Laden hadn’t made his move and scared the hell out of the country on 9/11, Scalia’s creature would have been long gone by now. The regrets are manifested in the American people’s current disgust and loathing of the boy-man those five egomaniacs illegitimately foisted on the country.

There is a reportedly good movie called Recount premiering on HBO about the Florida recount next month. Make sure your kids see it so they know what it looks like when Republicans steal an election.



Here’s the trailer:

What Makes Johnny Run?

by digby

Kevin Drum makes an observation I haven’t seen anyone else make:

And for all the talk about how ambitious Hillary is, does anyone really doubt that McCain has her well beaten on that score? He ran as a conservative bulldog in 2000, he moderated his positions and seriously considered switching parties to run as VP in 2004, and then switched back to Mr. Conservative afterward to prep for yet another run in 2008. McCain really, really, REALLY wants to be president. Isn’t it about time someone noticed that?

Yes. Even I hadn’t actually thought of it in quite that way. This guy is old, he’s rich, he’s famous, he’s had cancer and he’s not particularly popular in his own party. His signature issue of Campaign Finance Reform was achieved (and he used it for toilet paper when it got in the way of his relentless quest for the presidency.) It’s not like there was some grassroots groundswell that drafted him. Indeed, last summer he was pretty much out and he just ground it out until he got the nomination.

What’s driving McCain?

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Calling All Readers

by digby

We have a project for you. (And it’s fun!)

From Rick Perlstein:

Conservatism is on the ropes; if my dialogue below with David Frum suggests anything, it’s that. So Bob Borosage, in the comments, makes a suggestion:

What we need is to catalog the 10 or 20 classic conservative “not sos”— the big lies or cons that have become central to the story they tell both to themselves and to the country—with the basic refutation. So that those of us who aren’t historians of the Nixon era can share in the same delightful moment of uh,uh,uh, dither that you produced in Frum.

So: let’s make this a community project. Any nominees?

Please click this link and leave your nominees for Rick to collect at The Big Con.

I have one: “Reagan proved lowering taxes raises revenues.”

The fact is that Reagan signed one of the largest tax increases in history and even then by the time Reagan left office, a combination of lower tax revenues and sharply higher spending for defense had created the biggest budget deficit in history. It was so big that his more “prudent” successor broke his promise to never raise taxes and signed a tax increase to close it — which helped cost him the election in 1992.

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Let Them Eat Cake

by digby

Never again:

Republican presidential candidate John McCain took stock of still-hurricane-damaged areas of New Orleans on Thursday and declared that if the disaster had happened on his watch, he would have immediately landed his plane at the nearest Air Force base, drawing a sharp contrast to President Bush’s handling of the tragedy.

McCain called the response to Katrina “a perfect storm” of mismanagement by federal, state and local governments.

[…]

“Never again, never again, will a disaster of this nature be handled in the disgraceful way it was handled,” McCain declared.

He made the same pledge over and over during the day: “I promise you, never again.”

Please.

This is what was happening the day he and Bush were licking hot buttercream off each other’s fingers:

7AM CDT — KATRINA MAKES LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE [CNN]

7:30 AM CDT — BUSH ADMINISTRATION NOTIFIED OF THE LEVEE BREACH

8AM CDT — MAYOR NAGIN REPORTS THAT WATER IS FLOWING OVER LEVEE

11:13 AM CDT – WHITE HOUSE CIRCULATES INTERNAL MEMO ABOUT LEVEE BREACH

MORNING — BROWN WARNS BUSH ABOUT THE POTENTIAL DEVASTATION OF KATRINA

MORNING — MAYFIELD WARNS BUSH ABOUT THE TOPPING OF THE LEVEES

MORNING — BUSH CALLS SECRETARY CHERTOFF TO DISCUSS IMMIGRATION

11AM CDT — MICHAEL BROWN FINALLY REQUESTS THAT DHS DISPATCH 1,000 EMPLOYEES TO REGION, GIVES THEM TWO DAYS TO ARRIVE

LATE MORNING — LEVEE BREACHED

11AM CDT — BUSH VISITS ARIZONA RESORT TO PROMOTE MEDICARE DRUG BENEFIT

4:30PM CDT — BUSH TRAVELS TO CALIFORNIA SENIOR CENTER TO DISCUSS MEDICARE DRUG BENEFIT

8PM CDT — RUMSFELD ATTENDS SAN DIEGO PADRES BASEBALL GAME

8PM CDT — GOV. BLANCO AGAIN REQUESTS ASSISTANCE FROM BUSH

LATE PM — BUSH GOES TO BED WITHOUT ACTING ON BLANCO’S REQUESTS

McCain’s a conservative and that is precisely how all conservatives would respond. He would do the same thing.

Update: Reminder from Julia:

“There are tough choices that are going to have to be made,” said White House spokesman Scott McClellan. “We’re going to have to cut unnecessary spending elsewhere in the budget to offset some of the cost with Katrina.”

[…]

McCain called on Bush to undo the Medicare prescription drug law, while a number of lawmakers said the costly benefit should at least be postponed from its January starting date.

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Who’s Loving The Long Primary?

by digby

Those damned Democratic voters:

RALEIGH, N.C. – Not since 1988 has North Carolina had much of a voice in choosing a presidential nominee. Back then, it joined several Southern states to help pick Al Gore, a neighbor from Tennessee.

But the longer-than-expected race between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination will thrust the state into the national spotlight when it has its say May 6. Indiana also votes that day.

The primary, offering 115 national convention delegates, comes two weeks after Pennsylvania gave the former first lady the win she needed to stay in the race. But Obama is favored to win North Carolina, the largest prize among the contests remaining.

“My crystal ball wasn’t working well last year, and I certainly would not have anticipated this,” said state Democratic Party chairman Jerry Meek. “But, in retrospect, having a May primary was a tremendously astute decision.”

Voters, especially new ones, have taken note.

More than 165,000 people have registered to vote in North Carolina in the first three months of the year, a nearly threefold increase from the same period in 2004. Election officials expect a record turnout May 6 — about half of the more than 5.7 million registered voters, compared with past turnouts ranging from 16 percent to 31 percent.

Another wild card: A new law allows unregistered voters to sign up and vote on the same day through May 3. Both campaigns have launched efforts to turn out those voters, and the polling sites have been flooded since they opened last week.

As of Thursday morning, more than 81,000 “one-stop” ballots had been cast — about eight times higher than during the 2006 primary, according to the state Board of Elections. An additional 8,700 absentee ballots have been collected, officials said.

The article goes on to say that a large number of new voters are African American, which may be good for Obama, but it’s great for the Democrats. Blacks have been the most loyal Democratic voting bloc for decades now, but in southern states with a long history of disenfranchisement and discrimination it’s a joy to see the whole community feeling excited about an election.

Again, I think this is good for party and good for politics. It’s possible that some of those who are voting for the first time may not vote in the fall for anyone but the candidate who inspired them to get involved (a likely explanation for at least some of those people who respond to pollsters that way), but I doubt it. The vast majority are going to feel they have a stake in the outcome because they’ve voted once and they will stay with the party all the way to November.

North Carolina is a possible future swing state and I think it’s terrific that the candidates will be mixing it up down there and giving them a chance to participate in this historic primary. A lot of these newly registered Dems will be Dems for the rest of their lives.

The fact that these two “first” candidates have hit nearly every state is a major party builder. It’s the 50 state strategy being used in a primary and I think it’s quite interesting to see it played out. As long as the millions of small donors keep the money pouring in I honestly can’t see why this thing absolutely must be closed down.

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Food Runs At Walmart

by digby

Is this for real?

Food-related protests have been occurring worldwide, and in the U.S. now major discounters are seeing runs on products, particularly rice, as both Sam’s Club, the Wal-Mart Stores Inc. operated discounter, and Costco Wholesale Corp. have seen shelves cleaned out of rice as consumers worry about higher prices. “It is just unreal what can happen when we get fear being spread as it is now, and when the general populace goes out and starts doing idiotic things like lining up at the Sam’s Club and the Costco and not buying one bag but buying 10 bags just because they might run out,” says Neauman Coleman, introducing broker at Neauman Coleman & Co. in Brinkley, Ark.

Sam’s Club has decided to put limits (or rations, if you will) on the amount of 20-pound bags customers can purchase every week, and Costco earlier this week said it was considering such limits as well, which in a way is just as panicky a response. Even though July rough rice futures closed up 62 cents to $24.82 per hundredweight on the Chicago Board of Trade, Mr. Coleman says inventory figures show that the U.S. still has plenty of rice (this country exports a good deal of its rice), so the bubble-nature of this grain will recede over time. “It’s fear and panic and pandemonium,” he says.

This must be restaurants, right? Are average Americans really so tuned in to the news of food shortages in the rest of the world that they are panicking that they might run out of rice? Seems unlikely to me. Why is this happening?

Update: I guess I’m wrong. Americans really are worried about food prices. This seems like a huge deal to me. When’s the last time that happened?

H/T Bonddad
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Deep Insight Redux

by digby

I have posted dispatches over the last few months from a friend I call “Deep Insight” who has worked for many years in Democratic politics and has a keen sense of the lay of the land. (If I had known he was going to send this I probably wouldn’t have bothered with my own, somewhat meandering post below). Anyway, here’s what he sent me today on the state of the presidential race:

“We think electability is the Number 1 issue.”
George Stephanopolous’

This is certainly the media’s agenda. It is all personality politics and tactics rather than issues for this crowd. The media assumes what the GOP fall attacks will be and then introduces them to the public as “journalism.” No need to change the narrative, just replay the Nixon era debates. It is 1969, and here is the SDS.

Meanwhile, the economy is headed south into a recession. Unemployment is on the rise, as is inflation. Ninety percent of Americans think the economy is “not good or poor.” Ten percent of Ohioans are now on food stamps and the number of Americans nationwide on stamps has just set a record. This is the first time an economic expansion has ended and median family income is lower now than it was at the onset. Eighty-one percent of Americans think the country is on the “wrong track,” another record. By a 20-point margin over Iraq, the economy is now cited as the number one issue by voters.

The Fed has now become a merger and acquisitions specialist for investment banks. After the public has been put on the hook for $29 billion in highly questionable securities in the Bear Stearns debacle, there is an acknowledgement by the Treasury that there should be just a bit more regulation. Maybe start with minimum capital requirements in the investment banks and hedge funds. The political system has allowed this financial behavior to flourish, so now there are fig leaf reforms proposed by the Bush Administration. John Kenneth Galbraith once said that once the last of those who steered the country through the financial regulatory framework after the Depression were dead, the financial system would find a new way to implode. Capitalism, he explained, could not help itself.

The financial sector broadly defined is now over 20% of the economy. The addiction to risk and debt in the financial sector has dragged down the whole economy. Miracle returns at some private equity firms and hedge funds are built on cheap leverage. Meanwhile, the small investors saving for retirement are like lambs being led to slaughter. When measured in Euros since the peak in 2000, the Dow has lost nearly 40% of its value. Many of those baby boomers can forget about those extended European retirement trips.

Iraq remains a quagmire and now we have the Secretary of State openly taunting one of the Shiite clerics. This is just like George Bush and his infamous “Bring ‘em on.” But the Administration has managed to keep the war largely off the front page.

The last month has been difficult for the Democrats. First, the wild and reckless behavior of Elliot Spitzer ended his promising political career. The press was so busy with breathless details about the lady in question that there was little mainstream reporting about the role of Roger Stone, the GOP hit man in that saga. Stone allegedly headed a $2.2 million undercover effort complete with private investigators aimed at Spitzer. Stone then turned his information over to the FBI. The Bush Justice Department would never engage in partisan politics, of course, but let us see when the FBI next wiretaps an escort agency.

After Spitzer, the media turned to the Democratic race. CNN’s ratings are way up, so the endless back and forth is reported as breaking “news.” As Neil Gabler noted in the New York Times, “Joan Didion once described the Presidential campaign as a closed system staged by the candidates for the news media – one in which the media judged the candidate by how well he or she manipulated them, one in which the electorate were bystanders.”

This closed system has begun to unravel as voters go directly on line to share information with friends the way neighbors used to talk across the fence. The Internet now offers both quality hard news reporting and commentary as well as social networks. But it will not soon equal the news reporting of the New York Times foreign bureaus. The resources are not there. But the Internet has broken down the clout of the elite gatekeepers. Walter Lippman would roll over in his grave if he watched television news today. Much of it is sound and fury signifying nothing. But it does offer the distraction necessary to help McCain. Witness the questions at the recent ABC debate in Philadelphia.

Though his polling numbers have since rebounded, the Reverend Wright controversy has hurt Senator Obama. His outstanding speech dealing with the matter caused the media to stop the endless Wright replay for a while, but Reverend Wright will be back in GOP 527 ads in the fall. The cable guys will duly report it as part of the “controversy” of the day. Senator Obama will have to address the situation again, because the press will force the issue.

Senator Obama has rolled the dice that the country has fundamentally changed, and the public has finally seen through the GOP’s politics of deception and fear. He has little choice. On the other hand, the Republicans led by their right wing allies though will make his race and “foreignness” front and center. It will be the full right wing freak show aided by their friends in the mainstream media. Some days he will be a Muslim, others a black nationalist Christian. The GOP will try to make him Al Sharpton as he strives to remain Tiger Woods. The GOP’s hope is that 2008 will be a replay of the 1928 Hoover-Smith election. Prejudice against a Catholic worked then, and maybe it will work again with a mixed race man now. We know how well Hoover worked out.

Then there is the elitist charge. Despite his humble background and history as a community organizer, Senator Obama made the mistake of accurately describing the anger in small town America. No doubt, he now realizes that people will be taping him everywhere, even at his own private fundraisers. We now are treated to George Will, Bill Kristol and Mary Matalin playing down home populists on TV. In the same manner, the Bush father and son love pork rinds, slim jims and big belt buckles. Andover and Yale did not keep them from becoming the salt of the earth.

Attacks on Obama’s patriotism will also be a feature. The Republicans have lived off fake patriotism since McCarthy, so it will continue. The media loves this narrative. Unless one supports war without end with a flag pin attached to your lapel, your patriotism is suspect. This worked for George Bush in 1988 and his son in 2004, so the GOP will play it up again.

But Senator Obama has an enthusiastic and growing movement behind him. The people and grassroots money (about $240 million in the primary) will make a huge difference in the fall. The conservative grassroots has not responded with much enthusiasm for Senator McCain, but will likely come out in November.

As has been duly reported, there is a small window for Hillary Clinton to win the nomination. She can hope that Obama self-destructs or she wins several unexpected states remaining: Oregon, South Dakota, North Carolina and Montana. This scenario already gives her Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana, and Puerto Rico. This seems highly unlikely. Her 9% victory in Pennsylvania ensures the Democratic race will go on. It seems it began a lifetime ago. Senator Clinton will still end the primaries behind in the popular vote and the delegate count. Without an utter collapse by Senator Obama, the math simply does not work. It remains very unlikely the super delegates will overturn these twin results of popular vote and pledged delegates.

It would be very helpful if the rhetoric could be dialed down between the candidates. There is a line where competition tips to “rule or ruin.” Senator Clinton gives an interview to Richard Scaife, who, if memory serves, paid for the $2.3 million in spadework for the impeachment of her husband. Scaife’s vanity newspaper then prints an article linking Obama to “black” crime and endorses her. If there is some short-term logic in this, what is the cost?

Clinton is an able Senator, and there has been blatant sexism in the news coverage. Her campaign, however, has made a number of strategic errors. No presidential campaign should ever employ a lobbyist/pollster as chief strategist, particularly one like Mark Penn who has an ideological point to prove. He played politics from a 1990s playbook for the general election. But after 8 years of George Bush, the electorate is in a far different mood and the Democratic primary electorate well beyond that. As E.J. Dionne noted, the Clinton campaign seems to have only 2 speeds – overconfidence and panic.

Though George Bush is at 25% job performance in one recent poll, the national media continues to treat him as a credible political figure. His legacy will include a nation up to its eyeballs in debt, declining real incomes, a needless and endless war in Iraq, institutionalized torture and diminished American stature worldwide. With so many manifest lies on so many subjects, it is easier to ask when did the Bush Administration ever tell the truth? In a recent survey of historians, 61% rate Bush as the worst president in American history. But as the press told us in 2000, he is a fun guy to have at a beer party. The underlying dynamics still favor the Democratic nominee in November. The public does not want a third Bush-like term.

John McCain has a positive favorable/unfavorable rating in a recent poll, but the Democrats have yet to lay a glove on him. Five years, countless lies and 4,000 American dead later, Senator McCain either doesn’t know or deliberately lies about Iran supporting Al-Qaeda in Iraq. This is in the tradition of George Bush being surprised about Sunni/Shiite historic animosity. If either of the Democratic candidates had made such a statement, it would have run endlessly on cable TV. Iran remains the main beneficiary of our invasion and occupation. A pundit noted, “We have created Iran’s dysfunctional little friend.”

McCain employs the media to cement his “maverick/independent” image. The Tim Russert/Chris Matthews “We are his base,” as Matthews said, school of corporate punditry will extol his manifest virtues until November. He received a standing ovation for a speech he recently gave at the Newspaper Publishers Convention. The Democratic nominee will face a mainstream media that consistently interprets or ignores events to favor McCain. His gaffes or temper tantrums will be glossed over. The media doesn’t actively “dislike” Obama as much as it did Al Gore. It dislikes Hillary but hopes to keep the Democratic race going as long as possible. But there is little doubt the Democratic nominee will have to defeat both McCain and the media in the fall.

As the ole perfesser would say, “indeed.”

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