Month: July 2008

Some Context For The Iraq Timetable Remarks

by dday

Now that Iraq’s national security adviser has joined the Prime Minister in calling for the US-Iraq status of forces agreement to include a timetable for the withdrawal of US troops, it’s time to place these remarks in context.

Nouri al-Maliki is trying to win an election. He wants to outflank the Sadrists who have been resisting the US occupation for some time. There have been massive demonstrations among the Shiite community to drive the occupiers out. It’s significant that the NSA, Mouwaffak al-Rubaie, made his comments in the Shiite holy city of Najaf, and after discussions with the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, no less.

But the actual withdrawal proposal put forth by Maliki and the Iraqi government is far less than it seems.

The Iraqi proposal stipulates that, once Iraqi forces have resumed security responsibility in all 18 of Iraq’s provinces, U.S.-led forces would then withdraw from all cities in the country.

After that, the country’s security situation would be reviewed every six months, for three to five years, to decide when U.S.-led troops would pull out entirely, al-Adeeb said.

The proposal, as outlined by al-Adeeb, is phrased in a way that would allow Iraqi officials to tell the Iraqi public that it includes a specific timetable and dates for a U.S. withdrawal.

However, it also would provide the United States some flexibility on timing because the dates of the provincial handovers are not set.

That’s the key. This is a positioning document for al-Maliki, who wants to consolidate control in provincial elections. He’s trying to prove that his rule has been successful and that he is not a puppet to the Americans. The other day he said that terrorism has been defeated in Iraq – it was his “Mission Accomplished” statement – as proof that he has been able to increase security all by himself.

The practical effect of the agreement described above is negligible. We’ve only handed over security responsibility in 9 of the 18 provinces to date. There’s enough flexibility in this statement to hold off withdrawing all combat troops for potentially up to a decade. And 10 years is a long time and lots of things can change. This is an election-year “peace is at hand” statement that Maliki can wave around to the Iraqi public.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Bush jumped at it, actually. It’s certainly a good deal for him – he gets to pretend to leave while locking in for a long-term arrangement. He helps Maliki consolidate power and break the back of the Sadrist movement. It perpetuates the myth that we aren’t seeking permanent bases – there’s nothing in the withdrawal document about after-action forces – and that Iraq has some form of soveriegnty.

So let’s not kid ourselves – even with such an agreement in place it will be very important who is in the White House implementing the policy, which could result in a gradual withdrawal or no discernible change for decades. If Sen. Obama wanted to clear up confusion about his Iraq policy that the brain-dead media seeks to muddy, he could come out strongly endorsing this concept of a phased withdrawal and the right of the Iraqis to self-govern. And he could specifically explain that this document wouldn’t necessarily do that, and that it would be up to the policymakers to determine the next course.

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For The Record

by digby

Blue America and Color of Change ran a full page ad in the Washington Post this morning to make one final argument — plea really — for the congress to stand up for the constitution. Here’s the ad:

We’ve been fighting this thing for many, many moons and tomorrow the whole thing comes down to one, final, ill-advised retreat they are calling a “compromise.”

The congress is about to validate and legalize the president’s theory that he has the right to ignore the constitution. And because the telcoms will be given immunity it’s very hard to see how we will ever get a court to rule on whether that’s constitutional. This is a very bad precedent and one that we will regret. If you give them more power than they need, they will use it. It’s what humans do.

The spirit of encroachment tends to consolidate the powers of all the departments in one, and thus to create whatever the form of government, a real despotism. A just estimate of that love of power, and proneness to abuse it, which predominates in the human heart is sufficient to satisfy us of the truth of this position.

George Washington
1796 – Farewell Address

Greenwald lays it all out one more time and makes an announcement today for future plans to keep fighting for civil liberties. And Jon Stokes Timothy B. Lee writes more here about why this is more than just a horror show of insider corruption and lack of accountability. We’ll all be paying the price for this down the road.

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Friendly Reminder

by digby

Yesterday I asked what the Maverick would say about Prime Minister Maliki requesting timelines for withdrawal. Democracy Arsenal looked back and found some of McCain’s earlier thoughts on the subject, in case anyone wants to remind him of it:

Question: “What would or should we do if, in the post-June 30th period, a so-called sovereign Iraqi government asks us to leave, even if we are unhappy about the security situation there?”

McCain’s Answer: “Well, if that scenario evolves than I think it’s obvious that we would have to leave because — if it was an elected government of Iraq, and we’ve been asked to leave other places in the world. If it were an extremist government then I think we would have other challenges, but I don’t see how we could stay when our whole emphasis and policy has been based on turning the Iraqi government over to the Iraqi people.”

And no, asking him about this would not be insulting his service in Vietnam.

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You Cannot Make This Stuff Up

by digby

Apparently, 60 year old librarians saying McCain=Bush is considered a threatening insult at Republican rallies. Do you suppose she would have been thrown out for holding a sign that said McCain=Reagan?

What an interesting comment on the current state of the Republican party.

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SurrealBall

by digby

Watch Chris Matthews today backtracking after he says he “loves” Charlie Christ. Turns out he just “likes him a lot.” No word on if he gives him a thrill up his leg.

Then Mudcat “put illegal aliens in the bait can” Saunders tells us that the issues don’t matter and that the only way Barack can win is to “get through the culture” of white, working class people. He can’t watch NASCAR or go hunting because that would be inauthentic. Mudcat says he needs to “work his own culture” because southerners like the blues and eat “black” food. The fact that Obama isn’t a southerner isn’t a problem because Mudcat says Barack can go into a southern diner (which Matthews describes as being full of beefy white guys slopping up their eggs with toast) and proclaim “I’m a black guy and I can’t do anything about it.”

Mudcat is a professional Democratic political consultant. And as we know, Matthews is a famous liberal commentator who is paid five million dollars a year.

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What Say You, Maverick?

by digby

Iraq’s prime minister said Monday his country wants some type of timetable for a withdrawal of American troops included in the deal the two countries are negotiating.

It was the first time that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has explicitly and publicly called for a withdrawal timetable — an idea opposed by President Bush.

He offered no details. But his national security adviser, Mouwaffak al-Rubaie, told The Associated Press that the government is proposing a timetable conditioned on the ability of Iraqi forces to provide security.

In Washington, the State Department declined to comment on the ongoing negotiations and said officials in Washington were not yet entirely sure what al-Maliki had said.

Seems the Iraqis aren’t on board the hundred years occupation program. Can McCain hope to sell his “victory” at all costs plan without the Iraqi government on board too?

This should be interesting. They may be able to reel Maliki back in short term with the usual inducements, but they can’t really hide the fact that the Iraqis want the Americans to GTFO.

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Still Senator No

by dday

From what Sen. Reid’s office is saying about changes in the legislative schedule, Jesse Helms finally accomplished something significant in his Senate career – his funeral tomorrow will delay the votes on FISA by one day. The votes on amendments and the final bill are now more likely to occur on Wednesday. This means one additional day for grassroots efforts to get the entire Senate on the record over whether or not they will stand with the Constitution. Blue America’s tools are still active. I’ve been pretty pessimistic on the outcome all along, but that’s no reason to stop fighting.

Meanwhile, as Marcy Wheeler reports, the Administration wants a clean bill, and would veto any effort to allow the Congress and the American people to know exactly what they would be immunizing:

As we have previously noted, any FISA modernization bill must contain effective legal protections for those companies sued because they are believed to have helped the Government prevent terrorist attacks in the aftermath of September 11, 2001.

[snip]

H.R. 6304 contains such protection, but the (Bingaman) amendment would reportedly foreclose an electronic communication service provider from receiving retroactive [immunity] until 90 days after the Inspectors General of various departments, as required by section 301 of H.R. 6304, complete a comprehensive review of, and submit a final report on, communications intelligence activities authorized by the President between September 11, 2001, and January 17, 2007. The final report is not due for a year after the enactment of the bill. Any amendment that would delay implementation of [immunity] in this manner is unacceptable. Providing prompt liability protection is critical to the national security. Accordingly, we, as well as the President’s other advisors, will recommend that the President veto any bill that includes such an amendment.

Sen. Bingaman’s amendment simply states that the IG report, which even Sen. Obama has claimed would allow for accountability, be given the opportunity to actually hold anyone accountable by forestalling immunity until its completion. It’s as common sense a proposal as there has been in this year-long debate. Yet there will not be a hearing on it, the debate will consist of a matter of minutes, key witnesses like Mark Klein, the AT&T technician who disclosed the secret room in San Francisco where the NSA was vacuuming up all communications on its network, will never be called to testify, and the entire sordid mess will be pushed across the finish line in a day or two.

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Praying For The Tribe

by digby

I’m a big fan of the Living Liberally network and their work to bring together like minded people of similar values in social situations. It’s easy for me, living in a place like the people’s Republic of Santa Monica to run into fellow liberals but even so there’s nothing quite like being in a place with a whole group of people who are gathering together because they are liberals. It’s much more relaxing, even here. I can’t imagine how nice it must be for those who live in very conservative places.

They’ve come up with a new initiative that will very likely appeal to some of you who might like something spiritual instead of spirits (or both!)

Street Prophets has the good news from Seth Pearce of Living Liberally:

Through … happy hours, comedy shows, film screenings, book clubs and meals, we fulfill our key mission of bringing politics into places where we gather, socialize, learn, love and live. One of these places to which we have yet to reach out is the liberal religious community, one that, unfortunately, has found few spaces to gather and organize in person, in public, loud and proud. For this reason we are developing a brand new Living Liberally network: Praying Liberally! Like our other chapters, Praying Liberally chapters will have weekly, semi-monthly or monthly meetings of local liberals from a wide range of faiths including, as pastordan so excellently phrases it, “those whose deepest faith is in the conviction that there is no God.” At these meetings, faithfully-minded liberals could talk politics, say a collective prayer for “the least of these” in our community, our country and our world, and build community to organize around our common causes.

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Mission Accomplished

by digby

Nearly a week after his controversial “Face the Nation” appearance last Sunday, retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark is taking a break from the presidential campaign — but many Democratic insiders think he has already been crossed off the list of Barack Obama’s potential running mates.

Sunday morning on CBS News, Clark argued that John McCain’s military experience — and his years as a prisoner of war — in no way qualified him to be president. Following his appearance, one prominent liberal blog, apparently seeing the genie as out of the bottle, launched into a considerably harsher attacks on McCain’s service headlined “Honestly, besides being tortured, what did McCain do to excel in the military?”

“On a scale of 1 to 10, Clark’s words were a 10 in terms of unhelpfulness,” said one Democrat who has helped manage past presidential campaigns.

At first, Clark moved aggressively to defend his remarks, scheduling additional press appearances and even updating his Facebook status to “Wes Clark knows that John McCain is largely untested and untried when it comes to matters of national security.”

But now Clark is looking to put the remarks behind him. The former NATO supreme allied commander and 2004 Democratic primary candidate is “moving on,” said a close aide, who added that Clark can now “devote his time to the business affairs which pay the bills.”

I think everyone will be a little bit more circumspect about criticizing McCain’s military expertise and national security judgment from now on, don’t you? Some things are sacred in the village and McCain’s superior leadership ability is one of them.

Democrats aren’t supposed to worry their pretty little heads about protecting the country. They’re the Mommy party and should concentrate on what they know best like unemployment insurance and providing pregnancy counseling for teenage girls. Let the Daddy party take care of stuff like wars and taxes and terrorism. Everybody should do what God designed them to do.

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Victory Jackpot

by dday

John McCain let slip his economic plan today, and the big surprise is that oil companies and obscenely rich people are the winners. No, wait, that’s not surprising, but it is the natural outcome of reductions in the corporate tax rate and extensions of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy. The losers? Anyone who needs Social Security to survive, because their benefits will be cut and their program privatized.

(This might be a proven, winning line of attack, Democrats.)

But the high comedy comes on page 4 of the plan, when he explains how he’d balance the budget, despite massive tax cuts, in his first term:

• The McCain administration would reserve all savings from victory in the Iraq and Afghanistan operations in the fight against Islamic extremists for reducing the deficit. Since all their costs were financed with deficit spending, all their savings must go to deficit reduction.

Victory is the answer! Never mind that McCain wants us to stay in Iraq for a hundred years, or anything. And that garrisoning troops, providing food and shelter and training and arms, and giving them the role of engaging in police actions that they’re already doing right now, you know, costs a lot of money. John Sidney McCain III knows that when you win a war, you get the $644 billion dollar prize behind door #2!

Leading economists do agree, however. They like everything about McCain’s plan except for the plan:

This morning, the McCain campaign sent out a press release: OVER 300 ECONOMISTS SIGN STATEMENT IN SUPPORT OF JOHN MCCAIN’S ECONOMIC PLAN.

The statement leaves out two big chunks of McCain’s economic argument: the gas tax holiday and his promise to balance the budget by the end of his first term — there’s literally nothing in the release that mentions the deficit or national debt.

Maybe if there was one number relating to the budget – one – they’d be a bit more comfortable with it.

This is just a stupid platform. McCain constantly talks about reducing spending but won’t touch the military budget (actually, he’d increase it). Yet he somehow thinks that “winning the wars” in Iraq and Afghanistan, which have shown to cost increasing amounts of money every year, will save money. I guess that win will happen within a year or so, otherwise the savings would be offset by the “fight to win.” So he’s calling for a timetable of total withdrawal and victory within a year?

Menawhile, he wants to eliminate “wasteful spending” but every time you specify a piece of spending which anyone finds important he exempts it. And really the only spending that gets set for reductions is toward entitlements, which wreak havoc on Americans in horrible ways, like keeping the poor out of poverty and allowing the elderly to receive medical care. His health care plan is nonexistent, his energy plan consists of drilling for minute amounts of oil and building ridiculously costly nuclear power plants without a plan to store the radioactive waste, and his plan for the middle class and small businesses includes unrelated items like eliminating the estate tax. This is a conservative fantasy document.

And yet, it’s probable that little will come of this. As Atrios said.

McCain’s joke budget is horseshit, but as we know Republicans cut taxes and cut spending and balance the budget, just like the most popular preznit EVAH Ronald Reagan did, even when they, you know, don’t, and so their budgets don’t actually have to make sense. Tax cuts are free and wars are free. Only Democrats need to “pay for” any of their proposals, it’s just understood that Republicans are “fiscal conservatives.”

Serious journalists like Ted Koppel have their brain turn to mush when thinking about hard things like numbers, yet they know enough to ask the tough questions about paying for campaign promises – to Democrats, at least.

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