Month: September 2008

Speechifying

by digby

Nielsen Ratings

* More than half a million more people watched John McCain’s acceptance speech (38.9 million) than Barak Obama’s the week before (38.4 million).

* Regarding the gender gap, significantly more men (17.9 million) watched McCain’s speech than Obama’s (16.2 million), while more women watched Obama’s speech (19.9 million) than McCain’s (19.2 million).

* More than 5 million more white viewers watched the McCain speech (32.2 million) than the Obama speech (27.0 million). Among African Americans, the reverse was true, with 4.5 million more African Americans watching Obama (7.5 million) than McCain (3.1 million)

For additional political information, please visit our blog.

What does that tell us? You tell me.

Following up on tristero’s post below about McCain keeping Palin away from the press, I’m also hearing a lot of rumbling in the media about the “immorality” of them not having access to Palin.

MATTHEWS: I think, Pat, we have to ask the questions of all the candidates. So let‘s get—let‘s get to the sweet spot. The stock market dropped 3,300 (SIC) points today. What are we going to do about it?

BUCHANAN: Well, 330.

MATTHEWS: No, what are we going to do about it?

BUCHANAN: It‘s 330.

MATTHEWS: What are we going to do about it? Those are legitimate questions. What are we going to do about it? What are we going to do about the…

BUCHANAN: I think those are not only legitimate questions, they‘re valid issues. Why is the dollar sinking? Why is the market going down? Why is—you know, housing, these are all economic…

MATTHEWS: So these are the questions that the candidate for vice president and candidate for president both should submit themselves to on the Sunday talk shows, the weekday talk shows, the radio shows. They should get out there and answer the questions. Pat, I‘m asking you the question.

BUCHANAN: All right…

(CROSSTALK)

MATTHEWS: Is Governor Palin responsible to the public to begin answering those questions or not?

BUCHANAN: What Governor Palin and John McCain ought to do is run the campaign they want to do, communicate in the ways they want to communicate.

MATTHEWS: You‘re not answering the question.

BUCHANAN: I‘m not. They don‘t owe you a damn thing, Chris Matthews.

MATTHEWS: See? That‘s the point! So we can‘t ask any questions…

BUCHANAN: You can ask…

MATTHEWS: … from the candidates!

BUCHANAN: Ask them right into the camera.

MATTHEWS: This is an interesting kind of campaign, that the candidate for president will give a speech which everyone likes and then move on to what, the election? When is there a question put to the candidate, Pat?

BUCHANAN: You can ask her—reporters covering her can ask her questions. You can invite her on this show, “Larry King” “MEET THE PRESS.” But the campaign itself has got the right to decide how they communicate…

MATTHEWS: OK…

BUCHANAN: … to the country that they want them to elect them.

MATTHEWS: So the references to Harry Truman last night about, If you can‘t stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen, are irrelevant.

BUCHANAN: No, you can say it right into the camera. You can say they can‘t stand the heat.

BUCHANAN: But you can‘t order her on this show…

MATTHEWS: Do you think it‘s appropriate for Pat to even suggest that we might have a candidate for vice president of the United States who would skip from the nominating convention to the election booth without submitting herself or himself to tough questioning from the press? Is that even an appropriate concept in a modern American democracy?

BUCHANAN: No, I‘m not suggesting that, I…

MATTHEWS: Well, I remember a campaign in 1968, where the Republicans had Bud Wilkinson (ph), the coach—football coach, asking—of Oklahoma, asking…

BUCHANAN: You know who wrote the questions?

MATTHEWS: You did. I know you did!

(LAUGHTER)

MATTHEWS: Now, that‘s a Pat Buchanan campaign.

BUCHANAN: There were hardball questions…

MATTHEWS: The campaign flack writes the questions for the candidate and has some — (INAUDIBLE) coach, put the questions to the candidate. Boy, is that democracy!

(CROSSTALK)

BUCHANAN: Roger Ailes. Roger Ailes programmed it as a 28-year-old.

Look, Chris…

MATTHEWS: (INAUDIBLE) Pat. Tell me the whole biography of how a campaign should be run.

BUCHANAN: Here‘s what I‘m saying. In the White House, as White House communications director, you‘ve got an obligation to communicate with your people if you want to lead. Like Reagan, his basic format was speaking out, true speeches, and he wasn‘t as good at Q&A. Nixon was terrific at Q&A. He had primetime press conferences. We used those.

How McCain and Palin communicate—they‘ve got an obligation—is their own decision based on how they best win the presidency of the United States. You and I can say anything about them we want. We can ask questions…

MATTHEWS: But I‘m asking about if the American people have a right…

BUCHANAN: The American people aren‘t demanding it. You are.

MATTHEWS: Well, I‘m asking this. Do the American people have a right to see candidates for president and vice president submit themselves to tough questioning by objective journalists?

MATTHEWS: Yes or no. Do they have…

BUCHANAN: Do they have the right to have that kind of performance by the candidate, demanded of candidates?

BUCHANAN: I don‘t think it‘s the law of the land, no.

MATTHEWS: But do you think they have a right as—as people who vote in a democracy, to have the candidates submitted to tough questioning?

BUCHANAN: I think they can look at her and say, if she‘s not answering or he‘s not answering tough questions, I‘m concerned they don‘t know anything. I may not vote for them. But there‘s no moral obligation on them to…

MATTHEWS: Is there a political obligation?

BUCHANAN: No. No, there‘s not. You run a race to win.

MATTHEWS: This is extraordinary! This is extraordinary. But you were saying if Barack Obama were to run for president and not go on any show where he might face adversarial questioning, you wouldn‘t find a problem with that?

BUCHANAN: He just went on “O‘Reilly” for the first time today. They‘ve been begging him to come on Fox. The Democrats don‘t even go on Fox. You‘re scared to death of them!

Funny. As if submitting to Chris Matthews’ questions ever told voters anything meaningful about the candidates.

They are going to work themselves into a frenzy over this. And the right will hold Palin off just long enough for the outcry to become deafening. And then Palin will appear in front of a gargantuan television audience (again) on something like 60 Minutes — and do quite well. They are already working the media hard to make sure they don’t go for the jugular — and they won’t.

People need to get over the idea that Palin’s some kind of Britney Spears bimbo. She’s a professional politician and from the looks of it, a pretty good one. She’s not going to fall on her face on TV. They will build the expectations accordingly.

Update: Check this out:

A week ago, most Americans had never heard of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Now, following a Vice Presidential acceptance speech viewed live by more than 40 million people, Palin is viewed favorably by 58% of American voters. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 37% hold an unfavorable view of the self-described hockey mom.

[…]

Perhaps most stunning is the fact that Palin’s favorable ratings are now a point higher than either man at the top of the Presidential tickets this year. As of Friday morning, Obama and McCain are each viewed favorably by 57% of voters. Biden is viewed favorably by 48%.

There is a strong partisan gap when it comes to perceptions of Palin. Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Republicans give her favorable reviews along with 33% of Democrats and 59% of voters not affiliated with either major party.

She earns positive reviews from 65% of men and 52% of women. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows that Obama continues to lead McCain among women voters while McCain leads among men. The Friday morning update, the first to include interviews conducted after Palin’s speech–showed the beginning of a Republican convention bounce that may match Obama’s bounce from last week.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Americans believe that most reporters are trying to hurt Palin’s campaign, a fact that may enhance her own ratings.

The Palin pick has also improved perceptions of John McCain. A week ago, just before he introduced his running mate, just 42% of Republicans had a Very Favorable opinion of their party’s nominee. That figure jumped to 54% by this Friday morning. Among unaffiliated voters, favorable opinions of McCain have increased by eleven percentage points in a week from 54% before the Palin announcement to 65% today.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of all voters now believe that McCain made the right choice when he picked Palin to be his running mate while 32% disagree. By way of comparison, on the night after Biden gave his acceptance speech, 47% said that Obama made the right choice.

Eighty-one percent (81%) of Republicans say that McCain made the right choice while just 69% of Democrats said the same about Obama.

Among unaffiliated voters, 52% said that McCain made the right choice for his running mate and 45% said the same about Obama.

Forty percent (40%) now say that Palin is ready to be President, if necessary. That’s up from 29% last week. Forty-nine percent (49%) say the same about Biden.

However, following the Wednesday night speech, voters are fairly evenly divided as to whether Palin or Obama has the better experience to be President. Forty-four percent (44%) of voters say Palin has the better experience while 48% say Obama has the edge. Among unaffiliated voters, 45% say Obama has better experience while 42% say Palin.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters say that Palin’s speech helped McCain’s chances of becoming President while only 10% believe it hurt those prospects.

She is their “star.” And as much as they tried to turn that into a negative for Obama, they know that it has power in our culture. They want to manage it and control it. But they don’t want to kill it. All they have to do is keep it going for 60 days.

And anyway, what I’m really puzzled about is McCain. Why in the world did more people watch that speech that Obama’s? I confess, I really didn’t expect that. Why would so many people want to watch another speech from that guy? Was that part of the Palin effect?

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Surprised? You Shouldn’t Be

by tristero

I expected this. The press will not be permitted to interview McCain’s running mate. Unless, of course, they meet an awful lot of pre-conditions first. It’s part and parcel of a campaign to terminate unscripted, uncontrolled situations.

You can sneer all you want about the hypocrisy and cynicism of the McCain campaign, but the effect to the average American will be a contrast between smooth-talking, glib, in-control Republicans contrasted with sloppy, gaffe-prone Democrats.

And no, people, if properly done, not even sophisticated watchers of the media are likely to be immune from the effects of this kind of media control, let alone the average viewer. The Republicans will look in control, because they will be – marketing-wise – and that is a very, very powerful visual message.

Will the Democrats scream bloody murder about this outrageous attempt to run a presidential campaign without the opportunity actually to question one party’s candidates in a frank manner? We’ll see.

While We Were Sleeping

by digby

Batocchio writes in with this tip:

I don’t know if you saw Froomkin today, but he had more on Pakistan:

Well guess what? Sara A. Carter writes in the Washington Times: “U.S. ground forces crossed the border from Afghanistan and attacked suspected al Qaeda targets in Pakistan on Wednesday as part of an aggressive new strategy to kill or capture Osama bin Laden before President Bush leaves office, U.S. officials said. . . .

“‘I know the hunt is on; they’re pulling out all the stops,’ said a Defense Department official with knowledge of the situation who asked not to be named. ‘They are leaving no stone unturned. They want to find bin Laden before the president leaves office and ensure that al Qaeda will not attack the U.S. during the upcoming elections.’ . . .

“A U.S. counterterrorism official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that ‘finding bin Laden has always been a priority’ and that targeting al Qaeda bases is based on actionable intelligence. However, he added that the November elections in the U.S. have renewed a sense of urgency to capture the terrorist leader. ‘Any period of transition, like the upcoming election, can be seen as a potential vulnerability,’ he said.”

Far be it for me to suggest that the Republicans would pull an October Surprise. It’s been years since they used the power of the government to manipulate events to swing an election.

The problem is that the Bush administration is so incompetent that it’s highly unlikely they can pull it off. Worse, their attempts at such things often inspire the kind of blowback that results in airplanes flying into buildings.

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Merry Pranksters

by digby

I’ve been getting swamped with this email, purporting to be quotes from Sarah Palin. It’s a joke, which can be easily traced to this site. (I think it got some currency because a google search takes you to an MSNBC page that sort of looks like it might be a real story if you don’t know what you’re looking at. It’s a comment…)

Anyway, here’s the email. Don’t be a schtupid, be a smahtie, come and join the reality based pahtie.

Subject: more Palin
To:
Date: Thursday, September 4, 2008, 7:43 AM

How many of these quotes did she use in her speech last night?

Quotes by Governor Palin during a series of interviews by the Anchorage Daily
News in 2006 when she was running for Governor…

On Creationism:

The simple yet elegantly awkward moose proves God’s creation and not evolution
is the source of all life. How could something as oddly shaped and silly looking
as a moose evolve through so-called “natural selection?” Is evolution a
committee? There is nothing natural about a dorky moose! Only God could have
made a moose and given it huge antlers to fight off his predatory enemies. God
has a well known sense of humor, I mean He made the platypus too.
***********************************************************
On oil exploration and drilling in the ANWR:

God made dinosaurs 4,000 years ago as ultimately flawed creatures, lizards of
Satan really, so when they died and became petroleum products we, made in his
perfect image, could use them in our pickup trucks, snow machines and fishing boats.

Now, as to the ANWR, Todd and I often enjoying caribou hunting and one year we
shot up a herd big time, I mean I personally slaughtered around 40 of them with
my new, at the time, custom Austrian hunting rifle. And guess what? That caribou
herd is still around and even bigger than ever. Caribou herds actually need
culling, be it by rifles or wolves, or Exxon-Mobil oil rigs, they do just great!
**********************************************************
On Alaskans serving overseas in Iraq:

Well, God bless them, and I mean God and Jesus because without Jesus we’d be
Muslims too or Jewish, which would be a little better because of the superior
Israeli Air Force.
*************************
God help us!

Here’s the problem. People who will read this and believe that Palin called the dinosaurs “Lizard of Satan” and openly disparaged Muslims and Jews in the Anchorage Daily News — and still got elected Governor of a state — will also think those quotes make good solid sense. You’ve got to know your audience.

Chain emails are a clever kind of whisper campaign but I don’t think pulling jokes off the internet, (which can be debunked in less than five minutes) is exactly the way to get it done. The email I posted a couple of days ago was much more effective.

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I Got Yer Surge For Yah

by digby

Surging unemployment.

Tristero wondered below what big event or story Obama has cooked up to step on McCain’s speech is going to be. I don’t think he needs one:

Jobless rate spikes to 6.1%, pressuring candidates to address economy

A sharp and surprising jump in the unemployment rate reported Friday makes it likely the economy will remain front and center in a hotly contested presidential campaign just entering its final stage.

The unemployment rate in August jumped to 6.1 percent, the highest level in five years, from 5.7 percent in July, the government reported. Businesses cut 84,000 jobs — the eighth month in a row of shrinking payrolls.

The economy already was the No. 1 issue for voters, but the increase in the psychologically important jobless rate ensures both Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama will have to continue to address the nation’s economic troubles as they stump for votes over the next two months.

You’ve got the maverick and mayor out there today campaigning on the flag and blastocysts while unemployment, health care costs, gas prices and foreclosures are surging.

People may love their country, but they love their families more.

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OK, That’s The Funniest Thing I’ve Ever Heard

by dday

To a man, everyone on the liberal blogger side of the aisle was stunned that the McCain campaign would allow the TV shot to go out to the world on his big night to be him in front of a lime green background. Cottage cheese and lime Jello, in the vernacular of the blogosphere. Surely they WATCHED the shot through a monitor and knew that it would make him look sickly.

But that’s not the only head-scratcher with the RNC staging, which the set designers had months to organize. The giant screen was useless outside of the room, always putting the speaker at the podium behind monochrome, or worse, in the East River (in Rudy Giuliani’s speech). Putting the seats for dignitaries along the side of the stage was OK, but the white line across the boxes designating them looked to the TV angle like the seats were empty, in a wide shot. And then there’s this, which is absolutely amazing.

A lot of people were asking tonight: what the hell was that mansion up behind John McCain tonight during the first part of the speech? As I noted below, the TV close-ups only showed McCain’s head against the grass in the picture, which made it look like he was reprising his famed green screen performance. And when they panned out, it looked like McCain was showing off one of his mansions.

Well, several readers have written in to tell me that the building is actually the main building on the campus of the Walter Reed Middle School in North Hollywood, California. And sure enough, this page on the school’s website makes it pretty clear that they’re correct.

Could this be? Could the producers have wanted a shot of Walter Reed Army Medical Center, and they farmed it off to the intern who picked Walter Reed MIDDLE SCHOOL? I mean, is that possible? None of the consultants and muckety-mucks charged with picking the backgrounds know what Walter Reed looks like? As Josh Marshall says, “is this the RNC or a scene out Spinal Tap or Waiting for Guffman?”

You know, it wasn’t so long ago that these guys were the pros at this. Say what you will about Mission Accomplished Day, putting Bush in that flight suit was brilliant theater. Where did those people go?

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‘Sup, Dems?

by tristero

Surely the Democrats have some major announcement today to remove the spotlight that’s been shining on the viscous mass of white ooze that infested St. Paul. The couldn’t be so stupid as not to have planned a major rebuttal to the lies, distortion, and stupidity on display this past week.

We’re gonna hear about something big from Barack today. Right? RIGHT????

McCain’s Afraid

by tristero

St. John McCain is always eager to remind us of prehistoric times, when dinosaurs ruled the earth and he actually demonstrated real courage, But he doesn’t want to talk about today. And that’s for good reason.

Today, John McCain is afraid of his own shadow. McCain is so afraid, there is hardly anything he cares to do or talk about except the past:

McCain’s afraid to be seen on the same stage as George W. Bush.

McCain’s afraid to discuss his secret (translated: non-existent) plans to get bin Laden.

McCain’s afraid to discuss the vetting of his vice-presidential candidate.

McCain’s afraid to have his vice-presidential candidate talk to the press; she’s been shipped back to Alaska. [UPDATE]

McCain’s afraid to discuss his reckless support of Bush/Iraq, which dates to Sept 12, 2001.

McCain’s afraid to discuss plans to withdraw from Iraq in our lifetimes.

McCain’s afraid to discuss a serious energy policy.

McCain’s afraid to discuss a workable tax plan.

McCain’s so afraid of hard work, he admits he’s never learned even the basics of economics.

McCain’s so afraid of his party they dictated to him he couldn’t run with the candidate he wanted.

McCains’s afraid to discuss even the vaguest details of his plans for this country because he hasn’t any.

McCain’s even afraid to discuss why he refuses to support scholarships for vets.

And McCain’s so afraid of change he hasn’t learned to use a computer and can’t even log on to his own website.

But oh! How eager McCain is to talk about the past! Those glorious days when he actually had a spine. McCain revels in those days and well he should. It makes us forget how much of a compromised, philandering, conformist he’s been ever since. A man so spineless, he voted with George W. Bush, by his own admission, 90% of the time.

The John McCain of 2008 is a doddering, fearful, ignorant goat. And he’s been one for a very, very loooooooooooooooooong time.

All That Jazz

by digby

Not to be missed — Perlstein’s brilliant take on Palin’s speech. Here’s a little taste:

Richard Nixon always pulled out stories of cute children and animals at crucial moments. Trig, passed from hand to hand between Palins and McCains with the rhythmic regularity of a Bob Fosse routine, is Sarah Palin’s Checkers: attack me, and you’re really attacking him.

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Iraq

by tristero

The situation in Iraq has definitely improved, from unspeakably ghastly merely to ghastly:

Small scale bombings and shootings persist in the capital — each a reminder that the war is not over and that Baghdad remains a place where no trip is routine and residents are still guided by precautions.

Most won’t drive at night. Many try to avoid heavily clogged streets, remembering that suicide bombers and other attackers intent on killing large numbers of civilians favor traffic jams or congested areas.

Baghdad is the key to stability in Iraq as the center of government and as a potential symbol of reconciliation among rival groups. This flagship role, however, also makes it coveted ground for militias and insurgents fighting efforts to fully restore order.

The U.S. military warns consistently that the security gains, though dramatic, are not irreversible and that the relative calm is fragile….

U.S. and Iraqi officials do not routinely release figures on the number of bombs that explode each month in Baghdad, citing security.
According to Iraqi police, however, at least five small bombs explode on average each month in the area where the bombing occurred Tuesday: near the intersection on the eastern side of the Tigris River. Less than two weeks ago, a pair of bombs exploded almost simultaneously near the intersection, killing three civilians.

Nevertheless, attacks throughout Iraq are at their lowest levels in four years, according to the U.S. military.

August was one of the least deadly months since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion.
Still, at least 360 civilians were killed and more than 470 wounded in violence throughout the country, according to an Associated Press count.
In comparison, nearly five times as many civilians died violently during the same month last year, according to the AP tally.

Much of the credit for the drop in violence goes to the U.S. troop buildup of 2007, a cease-fire by the main Shiite militia and a Sunni Arab revolt against al-Qaida in Iraq.

With more soldiers in Iraq, the U.S. military was able to clear villages just outside the capital which extremists had used to rig deadly truck bombs which could claim scores of lives in a single blast.
Iraqi soldiers and police maintain checkpoints around the city, checking for explosives and vehicle bombs.

With that, police say militants are now resorting to low-tech explosives, which kill fewer people but are often more difficult to detect because they use pressure plates or other simple trigger devices.

That is small comfort, however, to the families mourning the latest victims.

Three hundred sixty civilians killed in one month. Five times less than it was a year ago.

Stripped of Republican spin and described realistically, this means that conditions in Iraq were so incredibly violent a year ago that they simply defy the imagination of any of us who haven’t lived there. Now, with the sacrifice of more American lives and countless billions of dollars later, the situation is what would be described just about anywhere else as verging on total anarchy.

In April, 2007, when things were really awful, that brave, brave soldier, St. John McCain, drawing on his bottomless depths of courageous courage-osity… hey did you know once upon a time he actually demonstrated some real courage? That was a looooooong time ago, my friends, but yes, he behaved with courage. He’ll be the first to tell you. Anyway….

In April, 2007, brave John McCain strolled through a Baghdad market, telling a reporter that this was proof you could “walk freely” around parts of Baghdad. Not mentioned was the minor proviso you needed the protection of 100 soldiers, 3 Blackhawks, and 2 Apache gunships to walk freely around parts of Baghdad.

Today, things are so improved, I’m sure St. John could take that very same stroll with only 99 soldiers, 3 Blackhawks and 2 Apache gunships.*

By the way, how much did St. John McCain’s little stunt cost the American taxpayer? Wouldn’t that huge palette of money been better spent on scholarships for veterans which McCain refuses not only to support but even to discuss?

h/t Juan Cole

*UPDATE: And don’t be surprised if McCain takes time off these next months to pay a visit to the soldiers in Iraq. What a photo op that would make!