Month: September 2008

Working It Out

by digby

Watch this pivot. I just heard Roy Blunt say that while he hopes there is a bipartisan bill, everyone should remember that “Democrats can do whatever they want to do here.”

As many of us noted days ago when Paulson presented the bill, this is the big play for the Republicans. Ed Rollins said it last night: they need to revive their party and the way they do that after a typically disastrous GOP presidency, is to throw the president overboard as not being a “true conservative.” (I’ve been talking about this principle literally for years.)

Do they care about the country? Sure, in their own way. They think that the most important thing for the country is for Republicans to win the election. I am sincerely hoping that Democrats feel the same way. If the problem with the markets is a lack of confidence, electing more Republicans is only going to exacerbate the problem.

Even though McCain and Palin have revealed themselves as the Britney Spears and Lindsey Lohan of politics and they’re both running around without their panties, it’s not obvious to me that this will ultimately work against them. In this freak show of an election anything can happen. The Dems should take no chances.

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Dispatches From Torture Nation

by digby

I’ve been getting emails about this topic for a few days and meant to write about it. It’s exploded into the blogosphere today: the Army has decided that it needs to deploy a unit here in the United States. (I thought that’s what we had the National Guard for …)

The discussion centers around Posse Comitatus and how the long standing legal prohibition against this has suddenly changed. I’ll let the experts weigh in on that.

But there’s another angle that has me spooked.
The Army Times:

The at-home mission does not take the place of scheduled combat-zone deployments and will take place during the so-called dwell time a unit gets to reset and regenerate after a deployment.

[…]

In the meantime, they’ll learn new skills, use some of the ones they acquired in the war zone and more than likely will not be shot at while doing any of it.

They may be called upon to help with civil unrest and crowd control or to deal with potentially horrific scenarios such as massive poisoning and chaos in response to a chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear or high-yield explosive, or CBRNE, attack.

[…]

The 1st BCT’s soldiers also will learn how to use “the first ever nonlethal package that the Army has fielded,” 1st BCT commander Col. Roger Cloutier said, referring to crowd and traffic control equipment and nonlethal weapons designed to subdue unruly or dangerous individuals without killing them.

[…]

“I was the first guy in the brigade to get Tasered,” said Cloutier, describing the experience as “your worst muscle cramp ever — times 10 throughout your whole body.

“I’m not a small guy, I weigh 230 pounds … it put me on my knees in seconds.”

So men who’ve been fighting in Iraq will now be armed with tasers on the streets of the United States. You can be fairly sure that after what they’ve been trained for they’ll believe that tasering someone is completely benign. After all, you get up again.

But as bad as putting more tasers on the streets, there’s an even worse possibility. The article says:

The 1st BCT’s soldiers also will learn how to use “the first ever nonlethal package that the Army has fielded,” 1st BCT commander Col. Roger Cloutier said, referring to crowd and traffic control equipment and nonlethal weapons designed to subdue unruly or dangerous individuals without killing them.

I think you have to wonder if this is what they might be talking about:

The US military has given the first public display of what it says is a revolutionary heat-ray weapon to repel enemies or disperse hostile crowds.

Called the Active Denial System, it projects an invisible high energy beam that produces a sudden burning feeling.

[….]

How the heat-ray gun works

The prototype weapon was demonstrated at the Moody Air Force Base in Georgia.

A beam was fired from a large rectangular dish mounted on a Humvee vehicle.

The beam has a reach of up to 500m (550 yds), much further than existing non-lethal weapons like rubber bullets.

It can penetrate clothes, suddenly heating up the skin of anyone in its path to 50C.

But it penetrates the skin only to a tiny depth – enough to cause discomfort but no lasting harm, according to the military.

A Reuters journalist who volunteered to be shot with the beam described the sensation as similar to a blast from a very hot oven – too painful to bear without diving for cover.

[…]

It would mean that troops could take effective steps to move people along without resorting to measures such as rubber bullets – bridging the gap between “shouting and shooting”, Col Hymes said.

A similar “non-lethal” weapon, Silent Guardian, is being developed by US company Raytheon.

Here’s an article on “Silent Guardian”

I tested a table-top demonstration model, but here’s how it works in the field.

A square transmitter as big as a plasma TV screen is mounted on the back of a Jeep.

When turned on, it emits an invisible, focused beam of radiation – similar to the microwaves in a domestic cooker – that are tuned to a precise frequency to stimulate human nerve endings.

It can throw a wave of agony nearly half a mile.

Because the beam penetrates skin only to a depth of 1/64th of an inch, it cannot, says Raytheon, cause visible, permanent injury.

But anyone in the beam’s path will feel, over their entire body, the agonising sensation I’ve just felt on my fingertip. The prospect doesn’t bear thinking about.

“I have been in front of the full-sized system and, believe me, you just run. You don’t have time to think about it – you just run,” says George Svitak, a Raytheon executive.

Silent Guardian is supposed to be the 21st century equivalent of tear gas or water cannon – a way of getting crowds to disperse quickly and with minimum harm. Its potential is obvious.

[…]

This machine has the ability to inflict limitless, unbearable pain.

What makes it OK, says Raytheon, is that the pain stops as soon as you are out of the beam or the machine is turned off.

[…]

But there is a problem: mission creep. This is the Americanism which describes what happens when, over time, powers or techniques are used to ends not stated or even imagined when they were devised.

With the Taser, the rules in place in Britain say it must be used only as an alternative to the gun. But what happens in ten or 20 years if a new government chooses to amend these rules?

It is so easy to see the Taser being used routinely to control dissent and pacify – as, indeed, already happens in the U.S.

And the Silent Guardian? Raytheon’s Mac Jeffery says it is being looked at only by the “North American military and its allies” and is not being sold to countries with questionable human rights records.

That’s funny …

In fact, it is easy to see the raygun being used not as an alternative to lethal force (when I can see that it is quite justified), but as an extra weapon in the battle against dissent.

Because it is, in essence, a simple machine, it is easy to see similar devices being pressed into service in places with extremely dubious reputations.

There are more questions: in tests, volunteers have been asked to remove spectacles and contact lenses before being microwaved. Does this imply these rays are not as harmless as Raytheon insists?

What happens when someone with a weak heart is zapped?

And, perhaps most worryingly, what if deployment of Silent Guardian causes mass panic, leaving some people unable to flee in the melee? Will they just be stuck there roasting?

It sounds that way. Have you ever seen a stampede?

Silent Guardian and the Taser are just the first in a new wave of “non-lethal” weaponry being developed, mostly in the U.S.

These include not only microwave ray-guns, but the terrifying Pulsed Energy Projectile weapon. This uses a powerful laser which, when it hits someone up to 11/2 miles away, produces a “plasma” – a bubble of superhot gas – on the skin.

A report in New Scientist claimed the focus of research was to heighten the pain caused by this semi-classified weapon.

And a document released under the U.S. Freedom of Information Act talks of “optimal pulse parameters to evoke peak nociceptor activation” – i.e. cause the maximum agony possible, leaving no permanent damage.

Apparently, the new operating principle really has become that any level of pain is fine as long as it leaves no marks. When did that happen?

Perhaps the most alarming prospect is that such machines would make efficient torture instruments.

They are quick, clean, cheap, easy to use and, most importantly, leave no marks. What would happen if they fell into the hands of unscrupulous nations where torture is not unknown?

They already have

The agony the Raytheon gun inflicts is probably equal to anything in a torture chamber – these waves are tuned to a frequency exactly designed to stimulate the pain nerves.

I couldn’t hold my finger next to the device for more than a fraction of a second. I could make the pain stop, but what if my finger had been strapped to the machine?

Dr John Wood, a biologist at UCL and an expert in the way the brain perceives pain, is horrified by the new pain weapons.

“They are so obviously useful as torture instruments,” he says.

“It is ethically dubious to say they are useful for crowd control when they will obviously be used by unscrupulous people for torture.”

We use the word “medieval” as shorthand for brutality. The truth is that new technology makes racks look benign.

There was a time when I would have thought this whole thing was hysterical and paranoid. Not any more. We are living today under a government that has legalized torture and which sees absolutely no problem with shooting people full of electricity on the streets of America every day in order to force compliance.

This isn’t some dystopian future we’re talking about. It’s already here. Now they are going to empower the Army to use these non-lethal torture devices right here in America as well.

Near the end of the Army Times article comes one of the most Orwellian quotes I’ve seen in a long time:

“I can’t think of a more noble mission than this,” said Cloutier, who took command in July. “We’ve been all over the world during this time of conflict, but now our mission is to take care of citizens at home … and depending on where an event occurred, you’re going home to take care of your home town, your loved ones.”

I’m sure these guys believe that.

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Wowie Zowie

by tristero

The drama queen will debate, as if there was any real doubt.* And think about it. He does well, that proves he can multitask. He does badly, he’s got the perfect excuse. After all, the country comes before…the country.

Y’know, he’s been going around acting like a jerk the past umpteenth days/weeks/months/years/millenia and we’ve been hearing alllllllllllllllllll about it. Meanwhile, scooting under the radar, Barack Obama has very calmly gone about his job. We all heard that McCain hardly said a word during the Most Historic Photo-Op Ever but buried in the back of some articles was the report that Obama “peppered Paulson with questions.” Bad alliteration to one side, that’s what a president’s supposed to do: bring an informed, inquiring mind to a complex discussion. Obama doesn’t look cool in this. He simply looks like he knows exactly what he’s doing.

One of these days, we need to confront the experience issue in an honest fashion. Let’s face it, crashing five jets and spending five years in hell is not any kind of experience that is relevant to the job of being president of the United States. A compelling story it may be, but far more relevant to the job of running the country (and the world) is the amount of careful thought and intelligent action a person has given to the problems we confront. By that metric, which I submit is a real metric of relevant experience, Barack Obama in his forties has far more experience than McCain. All those things held against him by the Neanderthals – like authoriing two books, mediating disputes, working as a community organizer, his work in the Senate, serving as an inspiration – are, in fact Very Good Things for a potential president to have in his resume. McCain has his ancient bravery, a financial scandal, some campaign reform he’s doing his best to circumvent, support for the stupidest war in America’s history, and a cave in on the issue closest to him: torture.

Some experience.

UPDATE: Why he’s bothering to debate, considering he already won is a bit of a puzzle.

UPDATE: Another thought. For all the drama queen histrionics, the real agenda, the one McCain is following, is Obama’s. Obama refused to compromise on the debate and McCain was forced to concede. Now that’s impressive poltiicking and don’t underestimate the skill that took.

Looks like Josh figured it out, too.

UPDATE: During the debate, will McCain’s back show signs of a wireless receiver, like Bush in the ’04 debates? Be on the lookout.

UPDATE: Incredible. As I watch, the blow-dried creatures inside my tv set are rewriting history a la 1984. Yesterday:

His campaign has said he wouldn’t participate unless there was consensus between Congress and the administration, and a spokesman said the afternoon developments had not changed his plans.

‘There’s no deal until there’s a deal. We’re optimistic but we want to get this thing done,’ McCain spokesman Brian Rogers said.

Obama still wants the face-off to go on, and is slated to travel to the debate site in Mississippi on Friday.

Today we learn, he didn’t want to go to the debate until a deal was set.

We live in straaaaaaaaange times.

What’s It Going To Take?

by digby

A lot of people seem shocked by this:

According to one GOP lawmaker, some House Republicans are saying privately that they’d rather “let the markets crash” than sign on to a massive bailout.

“For the sake of the altar of the free market system, do you accept a Great Depression?” the member asked.

And this:

“At the end of the day, there’s a lot of people thinking about how to rebuild this party,” said GOP strategist Ed Rollins on CNN, “and do we want to rebuild it with John McCain, who’s always kind of questionable on the basic facts of fiscal control, all the rest of it, immigration. And I think to a certain extent this 110, 115 members of this study group are saying, here’s the time to draw the line in the sand.”

“That’s pretty scary stuff that they’re thinking about party right now and not country, is that what you’re saying?” responded host Anderson Cooper.

“I think they’re, yes, they’re thinking about themselves,” said Rollins. “I think they don’t think that the threat is as great as a lot of other people do.”

What surprises me is that people are surprised. Have they not been paying attention? The Republicans started a war for no good reason. They literally killed a whole lot of people for their own political and ideological agenda. Why in the world would anyone doubt for a moment that they’d play politics with an economic crisis?

At what point to progressives put away the kumbaaya and recognize that we are not dealing with people who act in the nation’s best interest?

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Setup

by tristero

With all due respect to Barney Frank, he unwittingly fell into the trap:

Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., the lead House Democrat on the issue who had been in close talks with Paulson for days, accused Republicans of refusing to negotiate.

‘At this point, we have absolutely no participation or cooperation from House Republicans,’ Frank said.

While talks are set to resume Friday morning, any hopes of a clean, bipartisan legislative effort have broken down and the prospect of emergency weekend work on Capitol Hill looms large.

In other words, what we need is someone to make everyone sit down and cut the bullshit. Just like St. John McCain says he is prepared to do with the real Shia and Sunnis. And don’t for a minute think this September Surprise won’t work with the hoi polloi.( Or that there won’t be an October surprise even more grandiose and dramatic than this one.)

What to do? If they are truly serious about solving the financial crisis – which has the unfortunate aspect of actually being really real – then first, Congress should adjourn until that narcissistic idiot McCain is safely out of town. The second step? Blame McCain for any and all delays. The third step? Blame McCain. Get it?

This isn’t about obstreperous Republicans blocking a needed financial bailout because it doesn’t fit some whacked ideology. This is about a campaign bailout. McCain’s campaign bailout. The focus must remain entirely on his manipulativeness and his deeply unserious meddling in affairs he has not the slightest ability to understand. Once he slinks away, the very serious business of what to do can be addressed.

And then it’s time to blame House Republicans for being ideological dingdongs.

Stab From The Past

by tristero

You may have heard the phrase “Keating Five” and understood that it had something to do with St. John McCain back before he attained sainthood. Well, here’s as good an intro as any and it only takes 2 minutes. I particularly love the last part:

h/t SilentPatriot.

People, this is the last person in the world, other than Sarah Palin, that you want running the country. This is serious. He admits he makes rash, hasty, and, this is important, wrong decisions. (And for once, I think McCain is actually telling the truth.) And what does he do? Does he say he is working to get his impulsiveness under control? Does he say that the consequences of his bad decisions, which he is willing to live with, might also adversely affect millions upon millions of others if he is in a position power? Does this kind of temperament fit the presidency of the most powerful country in the world? Is it possible that McCain has, somehow, matured since his bad judgment in Keating Five?

No. No. No. No.

Folks, a President McCain – I can’t even type it without a shudder- will make us yearn for the halcyon days when Commander Codpiece stalked the earth and the Tweeties amongst us swooned in awe. McCain is, by no stretch of the imagination, a serious candidate for president. But don’t take my word for it, just look at his childish, dangerous, narcissistic behavior. As to if to prove the point that he isn’t serious, he has treated his candidacy – from the choosing of Sarah Palin to his idiotic timeout stunts – as if running for president was some kind of goofy joke .

What McCain is, however, by his own admission, is exactly the wrong person for the job. Which job? Any job that requires careful, thoughtful, decision making. Such as sending my child to war. Such as protecting my savings. Such as running my country.

h/t, my friend and fellow composer LS for suggesting this topic.

Norwegian Wood

by digby

It isn’t just Americans who have been screwed in all this:

Norway’s finance minister was being summoned to the parliament this week, to answer questions tied to investments made by the country’s oil fund in the bankrupt US investment bank Lehman Brothers.

The fund, a sovereign wealth fund fueled by revenues from Norway’s offshore oil reserves, reportedly boosted its shareholdings in Lehman Brothers dramatically earlier this year. According to The Financial Times, the fund’s stake in Lehman Brothers rose from 1.7 million shares to 17.5 million shares during the second quarter of this year.

“That’s about the dumbest thing anyone could have done,” one of Norway’s most savvy investors, Tor Olav Trøim, told newspaper Dagens Næringsliv on Wednesday. Trøim works for Norway’s wealthiest man, shipowner John Fredriksen, who has a history of risk-taking. Trøim, however, likened the purchase of Lehman stock to “gambling” that was inappropriate for what actually is a pension fund.

Lehman’s bankruptcy means Norway’s oil fund, meant to finance pensions for future generations, faces heavy losses. “This is very sad for 4.8 million Norwegians,” commented another well-known investor in Norway, Øystein Stray Spetalen.

Do we know how many of the big American pension funds are exposed like this? I assume they were smart enough not to go all in like this manager did, but it seems like there’s always some bozo who thinks he’s got a sure thing.

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Latest News From Torture Nation

by digby

This video is so awful, it will make you sick to watch it.

An officer appears to have violated police department guidelines when he used a Taser stun gun on a naked, distraught man teetering on a building ledge, officials said Thursday.

Inman Morales, 35, was pronounced dead at a hospital after his nearly 10-foot fall Wednesday. Police said he suffered serious head trauma when he hit the sidewalk.

Officers had radioed for an inflatable bag as the incident unfolded, but it had not yet arrived at the scene when Morales fell.

“None of the … officers on the scene were positioned to break his fall, nor did they devise a plan in advance to do so,” said chief department spokesman Paul Browne.
The lieutenant who directed the use of the stun gun was stripped of his gun and badge, and the officer who shocked Morales was placed on desk duty as the investigation continues. Their names were not released.

Witnesses and neighbors said Morales had become distraught and threatened to kill himself earlier in the day. When police arrived in response to a 911 call, he fled naked out the window of his third-floor apartment, clambered down to a ledge and began jabbing at officers with an 8-foot-long fluorescent light.

An amateur video posted on the Web site of the New York Post shows one of the officers raising a stun gun at Morales, who freezes and topples over headfirst as the crowd screams.

“They didn’t try to brace his fall. They did nothing. I’ve seen a lot of things in my time. But what they did was wrong,” said neighbor Kirk Giddens, 39, in Thursday editions of the Daily News.

When are we going to do something about this? They are routinely killing mentally ill people with these things and torturing many, many others. Something’s got to be done. I’m physically ill right now.

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Slap Happy

by digby

In case you’re getting as confused as I am (and I’m just talking about the politics!) here’s Krugman on the merits of the deal:

A $700 billion slap in the face

The initial Treasury stance on the bailout was one of sheer demand for authority: give us total discretion and a blank check, and we’ll fix things. There was no explanation of the theory of the case — of why we should believe the proposed intervention would work. So many of us turned to our own analyses, and concluded that it probably wouldn’t work — unless it amounted to a huge giveaway to the financial industry.

Now, under duress, Ben Bernanke (not Paulson!) has offered an explanation of sorts about the missing theory. And it is, in effect, a metastasized version of the “slap-in-the-face” theory that has failed to resolve the crisis so far.

Before I explain the apparent logic here, let’s talk about how governments normally respond to financial crisis: namely, they rescue the failing financial institutions, taking temporary ownership while keeping them running. If they don’t want to keep the institutions public, they eventually dispose of bad assets and pay off enough debt to make the institutions viable again, then sell them back to the private sector. But the first step is rescue with ownership.

That’s what we did in the S&L crisis; that’s what Sweden did in the early 90s; that’s what was just done with Fannie and Freddie; it’s even what was done just last week with AIG. It’s more or less what would happen with the Dodd plan, which would buy bad debt but get equity warrants that depend on the later losses on that debt.

But now Paulson and Bernanke are proposing, very nearly, to do the opposite: they want to buy bad paper from everyone, not just institutions in trouble, while taking no ownership. In fact, they’ve said that they don’t want equity warrants precisely because they would lead financial institutions that aren’t in trouble to stay away. So we’re talking about a bailout specifically designed to funnel money to those who don’t need it.

It took four days before P&B offered any explanation whatsoever of their logic. But as of now, it seems that the argument runs like this: mortgage-related assets are currently being sold at “fire-sale” prices, which don’t reflect their true, “hold to maturity” value; we’re going to pay true value — and that will make everyone’s balance sheet look better and restore confidence to the markets.

As I said, this is really a giant version of the slap-in-the-face theory: markets are getting hysterical, and the feds can calm them down by buying when everyone else is selling.

So, three points:

1. They’re still offering something for nothing. In major financial crises, the beginning of the end comes when the government accepts that it will have to pay some cost to recapitalize the banks. But in this case they’re still insisting that it’s basically a confidence problem, and it we can wave our magic wand — a $700 billion magic wand, but that’s just to impress people — the whole thing will go away.

2. They’re asserting that Treasury and the Fed know true values better than the market. Just to be fair, it’s possible, maybe even probable, that mortgage-related paper is being sold too cheaply. But how sure are we of that? There are plenty of cash-rich private investors out there; how many of them are buying MBS? And isn’t it bizarre to have officials who miscalled so much — “All the signs I look at,” declared Paulson in April 2007, show “the housing market is at or near a bottom” — confidently declaring that they know better than the market what a broad class of securities is worth?

3. Even if it works, the system will remain badly undercapitalized. Realistic estimates say that there will be $800 billion or more of real, medium-term — not fire-sale — losses on home mortgages. Only around $480 billion have been acknowledged by financial institutions so far. So even if the fire-sale discount is removed, we’ll still have a crippled system. And Paulson is offering nothing to fix that — unless he ends up paying much more than the paper is worth, by any standard.

Meanwhile, Paulson and Bernanke seem to be digging in their heels against equity warrants or anything else that would make this a more standard financial rescue. I say no deal on those terms — and if the lack of a deal puts the financial world under strain, blame Paulson and Bernanke, who have wasted most of a week demanding authority without explanation.

And then there’s this.

Obviously the “plan” whatever it is, has been changed by the congressional negotiators. But the central premise doesn’t appear to have been. Throw a huge amount of money willy nilly at the market to slap it out of its hysteria. How that’s supposed to work when you’ve just spent the past week running around like Chicken Little with his head cut off, I don’t really know. But if Krugman’s right, this isn’t a plan at all. It’s a crude psychological experiment.

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Warrior Negotiator

by dday

It’s very hard to get the lay of the land on this bailout, but this looks to me like what happened today.

• After several hours of talks, Democrats and Senate Republicans reached something approaching a deal on at least principles, without specifics. House Republicans, particularly the rank and file, were never on board.

• The deal met virtually every priority John McCain had been promoting all week, but once he got to Washington, he met with John Boehner, came out and changed his tune.

• The White House meeting was a disaster, as Boehner announced his caucus was not on board, McCain blathered away with some gibberish, floating a new plan, and no agreement was made.

• All of a sudden, House conservatives started passing along that new proposal McCain was touting, which amounted to a conservative wish list for, get this, even LESS regulation and lower taxes to spur private investment in the market. If there’s anything that private investors want, it’s to buy worthless securities and cross their fingers, hoping they’ll somehow go up in the future, right?

• McCain hasn’t said yes to anyone but he’s clearly weighing the political pros and cons right now. If he goes against House Republicans he’s stabbed the base in the back. If he goes with them he scuttles the deal and may get the blame for the economic pain to come. Country first. Chris Dodd basically said that McCain blew up the deal.

• Meanwhile, he’s being hammered for the “suspending the campaign” gambit while his presence clearly helped push the Congress away from compromise today. Barbara Boxer said he’s crawling into a corner with his blanket. Brad Woodhouse noted correctly that he hasn’t actually suspended the campaign.

This has clearly been politicized by Republicans, and I don’t see the endgame for them. McCain is trying to be at the forefront of history and thinks the world revolves around him, but clearly his presence was harmful to the process. But it’s not like it would have been smooth sailing if he wasn’t there, either. Stoller is right on this.

The end result of this should be that this is impossible to do in the current environment, and it always was, given that we’re 40 days out from an election, and nothing more should be done than a temporary bridge loan to get us to Inauguration Day. The people can decide on the best practice after that.

…oh, and in case you want to play how did we get here…

President Bush chimed in, “If money isn’t loosened, this sucker could go down” — and by sucker he meant economy.

Yeah, I wonder how that could be?

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