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Month: November 2008

Vote!

by tristero

I just saw a headline in the NY Times that scared the daylights out of me: Networks May Call Race Before Voting Is Complete :

At least one broadcast network and one Web site said Monday that they could foresee signaling to viewers early Tuesday evening which candidate appeared to have won the presidency, despite the unreliability of some early exit polls in the last presidential election.

A senior vice president of CBS News, Paul Friedman, said the prospects for Barack Obama or John McCain meeting the minimum threshold of electoral votes could be clear as soon as 8 p.m. — before polls in even New York and Rhode Island close, let alone those in Texas and California. At such a moment, determined from a combination of polling data and samples of actual votes, the network could share its preliminary projection with viewers, Mr. Friedman said.

People, this is democratic malpractice, voter suppression. Senate and House races will be affected by this, as will the tally to defeat odious ballot initiatives like Prop Hate in California.

Don’t fall for it! Whatever the preliminary results, whatever you hear, get to the polls and vote as if your single ballot could single-handedly decide Florida in 2000. Why? Because it’s true.

Every single vote for Obama repudiates conservatism. It is not enough for Obama to win. Republicans must lose and lose and lose. Republicans know = and for once, they are right – the election is NOT over. Why? Because it is NEVER over. The fight for 2012 began a long time ago. Assuming we are lucky enough to have an Obama victory tomorrow, the fight to destroy his presidency will begin immediately – in fact, it’s already begun. The single best thing all Americans can do to prevent that from happening is to vote, no matter how long the lines, no matter how the election is called before all the polls are closed, no matter what.

Vote for Obama as if your safety and security depended upon it. Believe me, they do. It is crucial that he receive as many votes as possible.

Even yours? Especially yours.

Call It

by dday

Dixville Notch, NH, the traditional first town to vote in the Presidential race at 12:01 AM ET, hasn’t voted for a Democrat since Hubert H. Humphrey in 1968.

Tonight? Obama 15, McCain 6.

Those numbers match the straw poll taken at my mother’s elementary school in Bensalem, PA, this morning.

So you know, get out the vote if you want, but we’re sitting in the clubhouse with a 9-vote lead, here.

I’m kidding, GOTV like you mean it.

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Californication

by digby

Here’s your handy dandy, progressive guide to the many ballot propositions courtesy of our friends at the Courage Campaign. There’s a link at the bottom to print this out to take to the polls tomorrow:

Courage Campaign
2008 California Mobile Voter Guide
PROP 1A: High Speed Rail
Vote Yes

Authorizes $10 billion in bonds to begin construction of a 220 MPH train to connect San Francisco to Los Angeles via San Jose and Fresno. Trains will be powered by renewable electricity and create 160,000 jobs over the next 10 years.
SUPPORTING: Sierra Club, CA Democratic Party, CA League of Conservation Voters, CA Labor Federation, Calitics PROP 2: Stop Animal Cruelty
Vote Yes

Mandates that farm animals such as chickens and pigs are given enough room in their cages to spread their wings, turn and move around, stand up or sit down.
SUPPORTING: Sierra Club, CA Democratic Party, CA League of Conservation Voters, Calitics PROP 3: Children’s Hospital Bonds
Vote Yes

Provides over $900 million in bond funding to renovate and expand children’s hospital facilities around the state.
SUPPORTING: CA Democratic Party, Los Angeles Times, Calitics PROP 4: Undermines Teen Safety and Abortion Rights
Vote No

Californians have rejected this proposal twice since 2005, which would undermine a woman’s right to choose. It places young women in serious jeopardy of abuse (or worse) and is part of a strategy to roll back abortion rights for all Californians.
OPPOSING: Planned Parenthood, CA Nurses Association, CA Association of School Counselors, SEIU CA, CA Medical Association, CA Democratic Party PROP 5: Nonviolent Offender Rehabilitation
Vote Yes

Saves the state over $1 billion a year by providing treatment rather than prison time for those suffering from a drug addiction.
SUPPORTING: CA Democratic Party, Cal Labor Fed, League of Women Voters, CA Nurses Association, SEIU CA, Color of Change.org, NAACP PROP 6: Massive prison expansion
Vote No

Forces thousands of juvenile offenders into adult courts, mandates longer prison sentences, and takes billions from the state budget for more prison spending at a time of historic budget deficits.
OPPOSING: CA Democratic Party, Cal Labor Fed, Ella Baker Center, ACLU, League of Women Voters, CA Nurses Association, SEIU CA PROP 7: Renewable Power Standard
No Recommendation

Prop 7 has been a contentious issue. Proponents believe it is a bold and necessary step toward more solar and wind projects by mandating we get 50% of our power from renewable sources by 2025. Opponents believe the measure is poorly written and may cause more harm than good. We are not convinced by either side and invite voters to make their own assessment. PROP 8: Eliminates marriage rights
Vote No

Would revoke marriage rights for same-sex couples and enshrine discrimination in the state constitution, the first time in history that a constitutional amendment would rescind human rights.
OPPOSING: Equality California, ACLU, Cal Labor Fed, CA Democratic Party, Anti-Defamation League, California NAACP, CNA, SEIU CA PROP 9: More prison expansion
Vote No

Like Prop 6, this would mandate huge increases in prison spending, by using “victims’ rights” as a cover. California legislation on victims’ rights is already among the nation’s strongest making this proposition unnecessary.
OPPOSING: CA Democratic Party, Cal Labor Fed, Ella Baker Center, ACLU, League of Women Voters, SEIU CA, CA Nurses Association PROP 10: T. Boone Bailout
Vote No

Oklahoma oil billionaire and funder of the 2004 Swift Boat ads against John Kerry, T. Boone Pickens, wants to take $5 billion from our stressed budget for his natural gas companies.
OPPOSING: Sierra Club, CA League of Conservation Voters, Cal Labor Fed, Union of Concerned Scientists, SEIU CA, CA Nurses Association PROP 11: Biased Redistricting
Vote No
A deeply flawed effort to change how legislative districts are drawn. Though we desperately need redistricting reform, this is not it. Actually favors Republicans (who have 32% of registered voters) over Democrats (with 43%) and Independents (with 19.5%). Undermines voting rights for Californians of color.
OPPOSING: CA League of Conservation Voters, Cal Labor Fed, CA Democratic Party, Mobilize the Immigrant Vote, Legislative Black Caucus and Legislative Latino Caucus, La Opinión PROP 12: Veterans’ Homes Bond
Vote Yes

Renews a home loan program for veterans that dates back to 1922. The bond must be periodically renewed – this would be the 12th renewal. Enables veterans of current wars to get affordable loans. Bond is repaid by veterans themselves.
SUPPORTING: CA Democratic Party, Los Angeles Times, Cal Labor Fed, Calitics Vote Grid
CLCV – League of Conservation Voters
LWV – League of Women Voters
EQCA – Equality California Visit http://www.couragecampaign.org/2008voterguide on your PC for more information. A project of the Courage Campaign Issues Committee

All about (election) eve

By Dennis Hartley

No, you’re not high (well, maybe you are…I can’t really see what you’re doing there.) Digby has invited me to make a rare weeknight appearance; she thought it might be fun for me to offer up some suggestions for an election eve movie festival. You know-something to distract ourselves from all the bloviating blowhards (we’ll be seeing and hearing enough of them tomorrow, as we sit aghast in front of our TV monitors). Digby suggested that we apply the vaccination theory-how about some films about…elections?

For movies that delve into the art of the campaign, I’d be partial to screening The Candidate, Primary Colors, or the brilliant documentary, The War Room. For the election movie as paranoid political thriller, how about The Contender and The Manchurian Candidate (1962) as a double bill? (The latter film is worth the price of the rental just to hear Sinatra exclaim, “Doc, that was one swinger of a nightmare!”). If you’re in the mood for a good election satire, it doesn’t get any better than Wag the Dog, Bulworth, Bob Roberts, or arguably the best of the best, the late Robert Altman’s cable mini-series, Tanner ’88. For political allegory, Election definitely tops my list. And although it has a more tangential election theme (election night as a backdrop for a substantial chunk of the film) any excuse to revisit Hal Ashby’s Shampoo gets my vote.

Strangely enough, I think my all-time favorite election film is one that has nothing to do with American politics: Don’s Party, a worthwhile sleeper from Down Under. Breaker Morant director Bruce Beresford folds in one part Shampoo, one part Return of the Secaucus 7 and sprinkles liberally with Who’s Afraid Of Virgina Woolf. The story is set on Australia’s election night, 1969. Our outgoing host Don and his uptight wife are hosting an “election party” for old college chums at their solidly middle-class suburban home. With the exception of one self-absorbed Casanova, most guests range from the recently divorced to the unhappily married. Ostensibly gathering to watch election results, talk politics and socialize, Don’s party quickly deteriorates into a veritable primer on bad human behavior as the alcohol kicks in. By the end of the night, marriages are on the rocks, friendships nearly broken and people are taking impromptu naked swims in the vacationing neighbor’s pool. Yet, this is not just another wacky party film. It makes some keen observations about mid-life crisis, elitism, politics, and adult relationships along the way. Savagely funny, brilliantly written and well acted. The film’s title is a clever double entendre, n’est-ce pas? So put a shrimp on the barbie, a barb on your tongue, and enjoy.

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Bipartisanship In Ermine and Epaulettes

by digby

As we sit anxiously on the eve of the election, wondering if it’s possible that this dark, frustrating Bush era is really coming to a close, I thought I would take a little wander back in time and see what the gasbags were saying after the 2000 election. I particularly loved this:

Bush sent Cheney to Capitol Hill on the day Gore conceded to start building coalitions. The Vice President- elect met separately with moderate and conservative groups–and both sides came away pleased and reassured. Conservatives hear a big tax cut coming. Moderates believe education reform and prescription drugs will be the priority. One faction or the other is getting played, but it’s impossible to tell which side. On one point, at least, the Bush message has been remarkably consistent. Bush told TIME–and Cheney has told Republican leaders–that he will not settle for a scaled-down version of his campaign agenda. The man who predicted a decisive victory now argues that scratching out a win in the closest election in a century equals a mandate. He wants it all: education, a prescription-drug benefit, tax cuts and private Social Security accounts. “The reason I will be able to deliver an Inaugural Address,” Bush insisted in an interview with TIME, “is because of the positions I took, the cases I made.” Moderates see such remarks as Bush’s opening song, the overture that comes before the inevitable compromises. “There’s going to be a new world order in the Senate,” says Maine Republican Olympia Snowe. “We can’t always get our way. We don’t have the numbers.” But conservatives won’t let him off the hook. Republican strategists who helped shape Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America are launching a new group called the Issues Management Center. It will wage an ad war designed to pressure Bush to stand up for a conservative agenda of issues–tax cuts, school vouchers and Social Security privatization.[…]
On Capitol Hill these days, each competing bloc defines bipartisanship in a different way–and no one yet knows precisely how Bush defines it. Does he mean recruiting a few Democrats to decorate conservative Republican policies? Democratic leaders call that the “politics of pickoff” and vow to fight it with the kind of party discipline that can stop a bill in its tracks–especially in the Senate, where the Republicans need 10 Democrats to shut down debate and force a vote. “After two decades of hardened partisanship in the Senate,” says Al From of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, “I just don’t see 10 Democrats jumping over to the Republican side on any significant issue.”

I guess we know how that went.

I don’t know what will happen this time. But regardless of the mandate, I would be shocked if the Republicans adopt the same capitulating strategy that the Democrats did after that stolen election. It’s not in their nature — and they are still well practiced in the art of obstructionism and opposition politics. More importantly, as Krugman points out in his column this morning, those who are left in the Republican party are extremists:

Larry Sabato, the election forecaster, predicts that seven Senate seats currently held by Republicans will go Democratic on Tuesday. According to the liberal-conservative rankings of the political scientists Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal, five of the soon-to-be-gone senators are more moderate than the median Republican senator — so the rump, the G.O.P. caucus that remains, will have shifted further to the right. The same thing seems set to happen in the House. Also, the Republican base already seems to be gearing up to regard defeat not as a verdict on conservative policies, but as the result of an evil conspiracy. A recent Democracy Corps poll found that Republicans, by a margin of more than two to one, believe that Mr. McCain is losing “because the mainstream media is biased” rather than “because Americans are tired of George Bush.”

And it’s obviously a long way from them believing that Americans are tired of conservatism. They will keep fighting.

Now, the villagers are already saying this is a victory for the “center-right” and are becoming apoplectic at the idea that the dirty hippies are coming to town to trash the place, so there will be very strong resistance to anything that doesn’t look like centrism and bipartisanship. With the villagers’ track record I would hope that a new administration armed with a mandate for change would be smart enough to ignore them.

After all, these are the people who said things like this:

FINEMAN (11/27/01): So who are the Bushes, really? Well, they’re the people who produced the fellow who sat with me and my Newsweek colleague, Martha Brant, for his first interview since 9/11. We saw, among other things, a leader who is utterly comfortable in his role. Bush envelops himself in the trappings of office. Maybe that’s because he’s seen it from the inside since his dad served as Reagan’s vice president in the ‘80s. The presidency is a family business.

Dubyah loves to wear the uniform—whatever the correct one happens to be for a particular moment. I counted no fewer than four changes of attire during the day trip we took to Fort Campbell in Kentucky and back. He arrived for our interview in a dark blue Air Force One flight jacket. When he greeted the members of Congress on board, he wore an open-necked shirt. When he had lunch with the troops, he wore a blue blazer. And when he addressed the troops, it was in the flight jacket of the 101st Airborne. He’s a boomer product of the ‘60s—but doesn’t mind ermine robes.

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Patience, Grasshopper

by digby

One of the things you have to admire about the conservative movement is their patience. (I think it comes from their reverence for the tactics and strategies of Chairman Mao.) They are willing to take the long road to achieve their goals and when it comes to vote suppression, they are planning far,far ahead. Byron York writes:

Take some time today to read John Fund’s excellent overview of the problem of voter fraud. One particularly interesting aspect of all this is that, with overwhelming evidence of fraud by ACORN and other groups, some on the left seem to have conceded that there is significant voter registration fraud out there — but insist that that will not translate into the casting of fraudulent votes. Of course some of those same people are the ones who oppose common-sense measures, like a photo-ID requirement, that can help prevent voter registration fraud from turning into voter fraud.

Step one accomplished. They have created the delusion that there is massive registration “fraud” — the left has even apparently agreed to it — which leads inexorably to the idea that voter fraud will follow. Therefore, we need stringent voter ID laws. It’s common sense, after all.

The point of all this, of course, is to suppress the vote of the poor, ethnic and racial minorities, immigrants — all the people who are likely to vote Democratic. There is zero data to support the charge of voter fraud and there is zero evidence that the ineligible voter registrations are the result of some sort of mass conspiracy to commit voter fraud. So there is nothing common sensical about requiring people to show photo ID, make ethnic minorities and recent immigrants have to face a gauntlet of Minutemen outside the doors and then have to have particular forms of ID to prove they are who they say they are.

But we’re going to do it anyway. Just watch, even though 2000 and 2004 (and possibly this one as well) featured egregious examples of Republican voter purging, vote caging, long lines etc, the most enduring electoral integrity issue will be ACORN and vote fraud. They are taking it one step at a time until little by little, they make it more unpleasant and difficult for lower income, elderly and immigrant citizens to vote. And if they can cast doubts on the election of any Democrat who represents such people all the better.

The aristocracy always protects its prerogatives, even when, once in a while, the serfs raise a ruckus.

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The Scooter Paradigm

by digby

We’ve already talked about these latest revelations about McCain and the Keating Five, but I want to look at it from a slightly different angle.

Yes, yes, McCain is a lying piece of work who has spent his career basically acting the character of the heroic Top Gun maverick who flew a little bit too close to the sun, got burned and then spent the rest of his career pretending to seek redemption by becoming a reformer of the system that almost destroyed him. It’s crap. He’s corrupt, always has been.

But this latest doesn’t just indict McCain. It indicts the press corps too:

[T]he Ethics Committee’s was not the only investigation into the scandal. There were two other probes at the time that got barely any public attention–both of which largely focused on McCain himself. These were probes into illicit leaks about the proceedings of the Ethics Committee–leaks that repeatedly benefited McCain and hurt his Keating Five colleagues. One of those senators described the leaks at the time as a “violation of ethical behavior at least as serious as anything of which we senators have been accused.” The leaks, if they were coming from a senator, were also illegal. All five senators–including McCain–had testified under oath and under the U.S. penal code that the leaks did not come from their camps. The leaks were also prohibited by rules of the Senate Ethics Committee; according to the rules of the Senate, anyone caught leaking such information could face expulsion from the body. These, then, were not the usual Washington disclosures: Discovered, they could have stopped the career of any Washington politician in his tracks.

Golly, if only we’d known.

I’m going to call this The Scooter Paradigm, wherein the press reports stories that feature the press (sometimes even themselves personally) as if they are reporting on tribal chieftains in Afghanistan. In other words, as if they are reporting on something foreign and unknowable. The fact is that there are some people who know the truth about this from the beginning and they’re called “reporters.” They knew then and they know now that they were being leaked to by a lying creep who was trying to cover his ass. And, in their minds, that’s exactly the same as protecting the identity of some low level whistleblower at the SEC who discovers that powerful people are committing crimes. Nobody said a word.

I will never understand why reporters think it’s so important that they protect people who lie to them and use them for nefarious political reasons. They sit idly by while a man like McCain creates a completely phony persona, wines and dines them and treats them to his “unvarnished” off-the-record musings all the while at least some of them (and their editors) know that he is completely full of shit.

He’s run for president twice now. And it took until four days before the election for this story of McCain’s perfidious treatment of his fellow senators and cover-up of his crimes to surface? A story about leaks to the press? Can we all see the problem here?

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RIP Madelyn Dunham

by dday

Terrible news. The day before an historic election, Barack Obama’s grandmother, the woman who raised him for a good portion of his youth, has passed away. He took time off the campaign trail in the final weeks to say his last goodbyes. Unfortunately she could not make it to Election Day.

This was a woman who went from the secretarial pool to the Vice President of a bank, a woman who worked on assembly lines during World War II. Here’s the statement from Barack Obama and his sister, Maya Soetoro-Ng:

“It is with great sadness that we announce that our grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, has died peacefully after a battle with cancer. She was the cornerstone of our family, and a woman of extraordinary accomplishment, strength, and humility. She was the person who encouraged and allowed us to take chances. She was proud of her grandchildren and great-grandchildren and left this world with the knowledge that her impact on all of us was meaningful and enduring. Our debt to her is beyond measure.

“Our family wants to thank all of those who sent flowers, cards, well-wishes, and prayers during this difficult time. It brought our grandmother and us great comfort. Our grandmother was a private woman, and we will respect her wish for a small private ceremony to be held at a later date. In lieu of flowers, we ask that you make a donation to any worthy organization in search of a cure for cancer.”

RIP.

…I should also note that the Nevada State Director of the Obama campaign died from a massive heart attack at the age of just 44. Much of my volunteer efforts for Obama supported Nevada. This is also a tragic loss.

…It is sadly typical of the knuckle-draggers in the California Republican Party that they picked today to file a lawsuit over Obama’s travel to Hawaii to visit Mrs. Dunham for the last time. The RNC jumped on this lawsuit filing today as well.

What a classy bunch.

…Obama speaks on this:

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MAD libs

by digby

I consider MAD magazine to be the greatest influence in my life. It’s true. When I was a kid I pored over every page like like it was the world of God himself. I know that makes me a very strange person. But I think a fair number of us baby boomers suffer from the same disease.

Wired got a sneak preview of MAD’s election issue.

Here’s an example of McCain’s greatest historical moments:

Images courtesy Mad

H/t to AD

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Stakes

by dday

In the heat of an election, amidst the media din, sometimes everyone forgets why they’re undertaking the fight. The contest becomes one of personalities and soundbites instead of issues and solutions. In this election, there is a definitive reason for that; the rot at the core of our government has a bipartisan patina and has been met by official silence across the political spectrum. There are serious assaults on our Constitution and our civil liberties that haven’t had so much as a 30 second glance in the traditional media. And yet they are very deep problems that will not go away with a new Administration in Washington.

As the Bush administration enters its final months with no apparent plan to close the Guantánamo Bay camp, an extensive review of the government’s military tribunal files suggests that dozens of the roughly 255 prisoners remaining in detention are said by military and intelligence agencies to have been captured with important terrorism suspects, to have connections to top leaders of Al Qaeda or to have other serious terrorism credentials.

Senators John McCain and Barack Obama have said they would close the detention camp, but the review of the government’s public files underscores the challenges of fulfilling that promise. The next president will have to contend with sobering intelligence claims against many of the remaining detainees.

“It would be very difficult for a new president to come in and say, ‘I don’t believe what the C.I.A. is saying about these guys,’ ” said Daniel Marcus, a Democrat who was general counsel of the 9/11 Commission and held senior positions in the Carter and Clinton administrations.

The strength of the evidence is difficult to assess, because the government has kept much of it secret and because of questions about whether some was gathered through torture.

If you hadn’t guessed, this is (to me, anyway) a signal that the CIA and the intelligence community is going to go to the greatest lengths possible to bury George Bush and Dick Cheney’s mistakes on a variety of fronts. The unspeakable tragedy of the Uighurs, innocent bystanders wrapped up in sweeps in Afghanistan, who have been dismissed of any charges and told by a federal judge that they should be released, but who today will be told that they are likely to spend the rest of their lives in prison, is but one example. The rule of law has taken a beating over the past eight years, as federal statutes and international conventions and war crimes resolutions have been totally ignored, and illusions of security took great precedence over liberty. I don’t remember this getting much mention at all over the past week:

WASHINGTON — An operation in 2004 meant to disrupt potential terrorist plots before and after that year’s presidential election focused on more than 2,000 immigrants from predominantly Muslim countries, but most were found to have done nothing wrong, according to newly disclosed government data.

The program, conducted by the Department of Homeland Security, received little public attention at the time. But details about the targets of the investigation have emerged from more than 10,000 pages of internal records obtained through a lawsuit by civil rights advocates. Parts of the documents were provided to The New York Times.

The documents show that more than 2,500 foreigners in the United States were sought as “priority leads” in the fall of 2004 because of suspicions that they could present threats to national security in the months before the presidential election and the inauguration. Some of those foreigners were detained and ultimately deported because they had overstayed their visas, but many were in this country legally, and the vast majority were not charged.

We’re talking about massive ethnic and racial profiling, enormous data mining schemes, a near-total ignoring of relevant statutes on privacy and civil liberties, all done in a systematic fashion and guarded zealously by elites throughout Washington. The courts can offer a bit of relief here, by asking for secret documents providing the legal basis for the illegal wiretapping program, for example, but considering that the Congress immunized telecoms who participated in the program, that relief is small indeed.

There are stakes to this election but they don’t end on November 4. I think Glenn Greenwald, as usual, put this best:

It certainly seems, by all appearances, that Barack Obama and Joe Biden will win on Tuesday (though anything can happen, don’t assume anything, etc. etc.). For reasons I’ve explained many times before, I consider that to be a good and important outcome (principally due to the need to excise the Right from power for as long as possible). But the virtually complete absence from the presidential campaign of any issues pertaining to the executive power abuses of the last eight years — illegal eavesdropping, torture, rendition, due-process-less detentions, the abolition of habeas corpus, extreme and unprecedented secrecy, general executive lawlessness — reflects how much further work and effort will be required to make progress on these issues no matter what happens on Tuesday.

Much of this is deeply embedded in the political culture. Very few people in the political and media establishment object to any of it; most either tacitly accept or actively believe in it. And the natural instinct of political officials — especially new arrivals determined to achieve all sorts of things — is to consolidate, not voluntarily relinquish, extant political power. It will help to have in the Oval Office someone who has, at least at times, evinced the right instincts on these matters (even though during other times he has acted contrary to them), and the better outcome on Tuesday (the defeat of John McCain) will likely ensure some very modest, marginal improvements in terms of the rule of law, executive power abuses and constitutional transgressions. But that outcome is merely necessary, not remotely sufficient; the election by itself will not produce fundamental changes in most of these areas. That’s going to take much more than a single election, standing alone, can or will accomplish.

That work will go on beyond 2008 and into 2010, as the progressive movement matures and seeks to hold accountable those who directed, engaged in, or tacitly accepted the worst of the abuses of the Bush Administration. Elections end with confetti drops but they really represent a beginning and not an end. As we seek together to change the country and not just the nameplate in the Oval Office, it’s going to get more difficult. But the importance of it, in the looks on the faces of those Uighur prisoners, in the eyes of the Muslim immigrants questioned for no good reason, from the lips of the innocent phone-callers whose communications have been captured and stored, is too vital to forget.

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