Month: November 2010

Margins Matter

by digby

Chris Hayes makes a smart pitch over at the DKOS GOTV project tonight. He acknowledges the conventional wisdom about tomorrow and then focuses on something we haven’t heard a lot of people talk about:

This is an obvious point, but one worth remembering, particularly for the many poll junkies who I’m sure are reading this: Better models for predicting electoral outcomes do not mean outcomes are more foreordained than ever. The first reason to vote is the most obvious: the future is not yet determined. Turnout matters a great deal, and there are dozens of elections around the country that are going to be decided by razor thin margins. Tom Perriello won his 2008 race against Virgil Goode by a mere 700 votes. Al Franken (about whom more in a minute) defeated Norm Coleman by the preposterous margin of 312 votes out of more than 2.8 million cast!

And not only did those 312 votes gain Franken a senate seat, they also gave the Democrats (after onerous litigation) a fleeting, but important, 60 vote majority in the senate.

Which brings me to the second reason to get out and vote: margins matter. Even if Republicans win the house and the Democrats maintain control of the Senate as nearly everyone is predicting, the margins in both houses will be incredibly important. Remember that Republicans accomplished a tremendous amount of damage by keeping Al Franken out of the Senate. That was just one senator. Remember that the most significant pieces of domestic legislation of this last congress — health care, financial reform, the recovery act, all passed by razor thin margins. A few votes in the other direction and none of it happens. Just because control of the house might change, doesn’t mean that the last vote on a important piece of legislation (immigration reform for instance) won’t be just as important. When you go out to your polling place, you have a chance to be electing that last crucial vote.

Our system is not a winner-take-all system, as we learned sometimes to our frustration over the last two years. If enough people get out and vote tomorrow, there’s going to come a time in the next two years when Republicans are just a few votes short of getting something they really want, something that would be genuinely awful for the country. You’re the last defense.

He’s right.

So’s this:

Zombie Atwater

by digby

Now here’s a shocker:

NC VOTER ALERT: GOP’S DIRTY ELECTION EVE TRICKS

RALEIGH, NC —With less than 24 hours until the close of polls tomorrow night, the North Carolina Democratic Party is getting reports of disgraceful repeated robo calls to unaffiliated and Democratic voters from conservative interest groups meant to anger voters and suppress turnout.

These unsolicited robo calls, which are coming to a voters sometimes up to eight times in a row, include a Democratic candidate asking for support in tomorrow’s election. Not surprisingly, many people hang up the call before they can hear the full message. The NCDP expects these robo calls to continue being made to unaffiliated and Democratic households into the middle of the night.

“These robo calls are a desperate, despicable, and unfortunately, predictable, attempt by the GOP to keep Democratic voters away from the polls tomorrow,” said Andrew Whalen, Executive Director of the NCDP. “It seems like there is no line Republicans will not cross in order to secure victory. North Carolina voters need to know who is behind these calls, and the NCDP will do everything in its power to ensure these likely illegal calls are stopped as soon as possible.”

These robo calls are not the first dirty tricks Republicans have played in the days leading up to tomorrow’s election. On Sunday, an organization named Americans in Contact PAC (AIPAC) started sending out unsolicited text messages to voters in the districts of Congressmen Heath Shuler and Larry Kissell. These text messages, which could violate FCC regulations, provided a phone number to the Democratic candidates’ campaign offices, leaving voters with the impression that the text messages were sent from their campaigns.

Beware The Anti-Tax Initiative

by digby

Just say no to no new taxes. Really. I live in California have watched this once great state deteriorate slowly at first and now all at once into an ungovernable mess largely by the design of the tax revolt fetishists. But they just keep coming.

Joshua Holland has helpfully compiled a list of anti-tax initiatives to vote against in this article. If you live in one of these states or have relatives and friends who do, you might want to forward this article. As Holland says, “they could ruin your government for decades.” Indeed, they are probably the single most important reason why the zombie conservatives keep coming back — they are organized around government failure and low taxes and one begets the other.

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It Can Happen

by digby

I’ve written about this before, but I think today is a good day to remind everyone about it again:

1998:

Later on, when Gingrich is campaigning just before the election in his own Georgia district, Pack catches him taking a cat nap in the back of a British double-decker bus. Gingrich wakes up to a nightmare. Rather than gaining between 10 and 40 House seats, his Republican conference shrinks by five members. “This was a night I was generally confused,” Gingrich confesses. “It was not the election I would have predicted.” House Republicans, who had earlier tried to oust him in a failed coup, now demand Gingrich’s scalp for nearly losing their majority. Uninspired by the prospect of leading a smaller, more hostile majority, Gingrich decides to step aside as speaker and eventually resigns from Congress altogether.

Here’s more:

For political observers of any stripe, the results of Election ’98 were practically unthinkable as Democrats defied precedent and most predictions to gain five House seats, two statehouses, while holding their own in the Senate. Only once since the Civil War has a sitting president’s party gained congressional seats in a midterm election, and since 1938, the party controlling the White House has lost an average of 44 seats. Add that to the Lewinsky scandal, and members of both parties figured 1998 to be a year of greater Republican dominance in Congress and the statehouses. For the White House, which faces a GOP-led impeachment inquiry in the House, the results could hardly have been more gratifying.

Election Day Coverage from TIME Daily:

Democrats Turn the Tide
Election ’98 becomes a major upset for the GOP as Democrats actually gain seats. But the Bush brothers are safe.

Of course, they impeached Clinton anyway — in a lame duck congress, no less. (If only we could bring back those days of bipartisan civility!)

This article captured the moment perfectly:

Gingrich took to the phones on the afternoon of Election Day still predicting that the President would be made to pay for his sins and that the Republicans would pick up six to 30 seats. But as the hours passed, the numbers just kept getting worse, and by 10 p.m. the Republicans were barely breaking even in the House. Then another seat looked vulnerable. Then seven more. Then, around 10:45, 13 seats. “At that point, we thought we lost the House,” one said later. When the last returns came in, Gingrich had lost five seats–a setback not matched since 1822. “Well,” said Gingrich when it was all over, “we all misjudged this one.”

I don’t make political predictions. My crystal ball broke a long time ago. Polls are usually pretty good, so I don’t put on my rose colored glasses and sing kumbaaya when things don’t look good. But at my advanced age I’ve seen some upsets so I’m always willing to wait until the people cast their votes.

Today we are seeing a whole bunch of TV wankers wank furiously because there’s nothing to report but conventional wisdom and educated (and uneducated) guesswork. But it’s meaningless. It’s all about GOTV at this point.

If you are just looking at your voting guide tonight, take a look at this national progressive voter guide site theballot.org to help you through it.

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Where Do They Get This Stuff?

by digby

Apparently, the Republicans believe that Democrats are so lame that they are going to steal this election and lose anyway:

I’m just going to reprise a post I wrote two years ago:

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Eye On Eagle Eye

by digby

In case you’re wondering what the right wing bloggers are obsessing about these days, I’m sure you won’t be surprised to know that they have an ACORN in their bonnets:

Michelle Malkin: ACORN Watch: RICO suit filed in Ohio RedState: More On The Non-Existent Threat Of Voter Fraud Hot Air: Now Minnesota joins the ACORN parade

National Review Online – The Corner: ACORN Ace Of Spades HQ: Minnesota Investigating ACORN, Too Riehl World View: What To Watch For In MN ACORN Investigation Instapundit: Still more on what ACORN is doing.

Here’s a taste:

Wizbang: Outright Fraud v. Phantom Suppression:

“ACORN – An ever cooperative organization with standards so lofty they struggle to meet them. They are merely providing a public service.”

A convenient loop when your very defense is your offensive strategy: Overwhelm the local systems and staffs, thereby increasing the likelihood of fraudulently inflating vote totals with multiple-instance voters completing multiple ballots. But rest assured, ACORN is cooperating fully and eager to assist in investigations. With so much to cross-check and verify, they should have internal findings for investigators in a timely manner. Sometime around, say, January 30th.”

Back in the day I used to get criticized by certain people for not talking more about the black box voting and touch screen systems. I always replied that I thought it would take a whistleblower of epic gravitas to prove such a thing, but in the meantime we were developing a theme of stolen elections that the right wing would gleefully appropriate the minute they were in danger of losing an election. And I knew this would gall me beyond belief since the one consistent thing conservatives of both parties have done since the beginning of popular voting was to try to keep the riff raff from casting a vote. When the Democrats were the southern party, they certainly did their best to keep blacks from voting. But ever since the Southern Strategy, it’s been the Republicans who made a fetish of it.

Here’s a little history lesson from Perlstein:

The “vote fraud” fantasies are tinged by deeply right-wing racial and anti-urban panics. I’ve talked to many conservative who seem to consider the idea of mass non-white participation in the duties of citizenship is inherently suspicious. It’s an idea all decent Americans should consider abhorrent. It is also, however, a very old conservative obsession–one that goes back to the beginnings of the right-wing takeover of the Republican Party itself. Let me show you. Read this report from 1964, running down all the ways how Barry Goldwater’s Republican Party was working overtime to keep minorities from voting. The document can be found in the LBJ Library, where I researched my book Before the Storm: Barry Goldwater and the Unmaking of the American Consensus:

John M Baley, Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, charged today that “under the guise of setting up an apparatus to protect the sanctity of the ballot, the Republicans are actually creating the machinery for a carefully organized campaign to intimidate voters and to frighten members of minority groups from casing their ballots on November 3rd. “‘Let’s get this straight,’ Bailey added, ‘the Democratic Party is just as much opposed to vote frauds as is the Republican party. We will settle for giving all legally registered voters an opportunity to make their choice on November 3rd. We have enough faith in our Party to be confident that the outcome will be a vote of confience in President Johnson and a mandate for the President and his running mate, Hubert Humphrey, to continue the programs of the Johnson-Kennedy Administration. “‘But we have evidence that the Republican program is not really what it purports to be. It is an organized effort to prevent the foreign born, to prevent Negroes, to prevent members of ethnic minorities from casting their votes by frightening and intimidating them at the polling place. “‘We intend to see to it that the rights of these people are protected. We will have our people at the polling places–not to frighten or threaten anyone–but to protect the right of any eligible voter to cast a secret ballot without threats or intimidation.’ Bailey said the Republican program, called “Operation Eagle Eye,” is really “a program to cut down the vote in predominantly Democratic areas by harassing, frightening, and confusing the voters.” He continued: “‘The strategy is to help Senator Goldwater by cutting down the vote in large cities in states with many electoral votes. “‘As such, it is an admission to the American people that if all Americans were free to vote they would overwhelmingly elect Lyndon B. Johnson, but if millions of Americans could be prevented from voting, Senator Goldwater might succeed.’ “‘Operation Eagle Eye’ was publicly established by the Republican National Committee on October 13. To make the program nation-wide a ‘ballot security’ official–the very name suggests that voting is illegal or at least dangerous–was named in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. “‘In one state, Minnesota, ‘Operation Ballot Security’ issued a seven-page single-space private memorandum detailing a variety of methods for challenging voters at the polls, with instructions to discourage helpful judges in Democratic precincts, to cut off waiting lines in Democratic precincts but not in Republican precincts, and to encourage stalling in Democratic precincts while preventing stalling in Republican precincts. “‘The Minnesota document goes so far as to state its purpose, not as encouraging each American to exercise his right to vote freely but ‘to safeguard the investment of time, money, and effort that the Republican Party, its volunteers, its candidates, and their volunteers have made in this election.’ “As for specific instructions, the Republican memorandum says: “‘If any questions or dispute arises, refer to the pertinent authority cited below and (when it is to your party’s interest) insist that the law be followed.’ (Emphasis added). “‘Stalling in booths is a common trick when lines are long in order to discourage those waiting. In GOP precincts, keep lines moving.’ “Memorandum like this leave no doubt in my mind that the Republican strategy for November 3 is the excessive, indiscriminate and unnecessary challenge of every voter. “How else will ‘Operation Eagle Eye’ work? A Wall Street Journal article of October 22 by Stanley Penn told how. “Penn quoted one ‘ballot security’ official as saying he planned to equip his poll watchers with cameras to frighten people into believing that voting irregularities can be photographed. He wrote: ‘The official notes that even if poll watchers don’t now how to use the cameras, potential Democratic wrong-doers may be frightened off.’ Here is an example of using a camera to intimidate a voter. “‘Another example used by Penn was a booklet written by Louisiana Republican ‘ballot security’ chief James A. Reeder, who urged his party to make all efforts to enlist the help of sheriffs and local police on eleciton day. The booklet explained why: ‘We are advised that all sheriffs in the State of Louisiana, except one, are sympathetic with Senator Goldwater’s election. We should take full advantage of this situation.’ “This booklet is one of the most damning aspects of this so-called ‘Operation Eagle Eye.’ When a political party publicly aligns itself with law enforcement officers in behalf of its candidate, this is certainly not the best way of promoting freedom of choice among the voters. this is the worst sort of intimidation. “‘Operation Eagle Eye’ is not the only Republican group that is working along these divisive lines. “In Chicago, the Republican ‘Operation Double Check’ was responsible for the charge by Elroy C. Sanquist Jr., GOP candidate for attorney general, that more than 4,000 voters on the city’s Democratic rolls were ineligible. “Then there is the ‘Honest Ballot Association,’ which Journal reporter Penn unknowingly described as ‘nonpartisan’ in its plans to send 500 lawyers and volunteers to New York precincts alone. “But the ‘Honest Ballot Association’ was the prime force in a voter intimidation campaign conducted in Detroit two years ago, a campaign that now appears to have been a dry run for the Republicans nation-wide effort this year. “In Detroit, less than a month before election day in 1962, an organization called ‘The Committee for Honest Elections’ was established and immediately proceeded to: “–Mail 159,000 copies of a letter misrepresenting the Michigan election law to ‘high mobility’ areas that were predominantly Democratic. The letter created the impression that anyone who had moved 30 days before the election could not vote. It also appealed for informers to come forward and report suspected cases of voter fraud. “–Plan to flood these Democratic areas with fliers that said: ‘WANTED–FOR VOTER FRAUD.’ “–Recruit 600 ‘challengers’ who would use ‘Honest Ballot Association’ credentials to indiscriminately challenge voters on election day. “‘Fortunately, sufficient publicity and court action blocked these measures for the most part and the planned voter harassment and intimidation was rendered ineffective. “I deeply resent ‘Operation Eagle Eye’ and these other programs that seek to deprive our citizens of their Constitutionally guaranteed right to vote. “‘Operation Eagle Eye’ is not even founded on the principles of freedom of choice and freedom to vote. It speaks only of alleged frauds, alleged wrongdoings. Even the press release announcing its formation did not seek to encourage voters. It sought to frighten them with this headline: ‘GOP Launches Nation Wide Campaign To Prevent “Any Repetition of 1960 Voting Fraud Scandals.”‘ “I believe the only way to have a fair election in this country is to encourage voters of both parties–not just of one party–to come forward, along with independent voters. This has been the basis on which the Democratic National Committee has conducted the entire 1964 campaign. “We want Americans to exercise their right of freedom of choice.”

plus ça change…

It’s not like this ACORN bs is unprecedented, is it? They do this stuff over and over and over again and they’re doing it again. After Jesse Jackson’s 1980s registration drives, they totally professionalized Operation Eagle Eye and now it’s a national program. The right wing bloggers can pretend that vote suppression is a phantom all they want, but the evidence is clear. (On the other hand, the evidence of systematic voter fraud is simply non-existent.)

It appears that Obama is on course to win big enough that this won’t work. And although the wingnuts have learned a thing or two about how to extend these themes beyond election day and keep their base riled up to obstruct and delegitimize the new president, the country is facing an economic crisis which tends to focus people’s minds a bit. So, I’m hopeful that this won’t have salience beyond a few cranks.

Still, we’ve never been in this particular place before. Obama is black and that seems to make the lizard brains on the right start foaming at the mouth even more than usual. And even if that weren’t so, they have developed a conceit ever since Reagan that they are entitled to the presidency and a Democrat simply cannot legitimately win the White House. They will be tested this time out, but I doubt they’ll give it up.

Update: Fox seems disinclined to report on real cases of voter fraud, intimidation and manipulation. How odd.

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Corporate Sponsored Character Assassination

by digby

Think Progress reports that ABC and Fox stations around the country are running a half hour anti-Democratic “infomercial” that you just won’t believe:

The National Republican Trust PAC, run by conservative conspiracy theorist Scott Wheeler, has purchased airtime in Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, and North Carolina to broadcast its 25-minute “Breaking Point” political attack ad, starting last Friday. Using clips from Townhall.com, World Net Daily, Fox Business, CNSNews.com, and Glenn Beck, narrator E. W. Jackson invokes the boogeymen of ACORN, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, the New Black Panther Party, Hamas, and Mao Tse-Tung to paint President Obama and the Democratic Party as “extreme,” “treacherous,” “socialist,” and “with hostility” towards America:

“The mainstream media… should have demanded how exactly he intended to govern outside the bounds of the Constitution.” “The phrases ‘spread the wealth around’ may sound harmless to some. To others it was a clear invitation to adopt the destructive ideology of leftist revolutionaries. Among the public and the media, it should have ignited debate over Obama’s intentions, like: Whose wealth is to be spread around? Who would be the beneficiaries of the money Obama planned to confiscate? It wasn’t the only time that Obama displayed tendencies that some labeled socialist.” “President Obama’s words and actions seem clear: He does not view America with an America-centric perspective, but with an outsider’s point of view, often with hostility.” “The goodwill Obama and other Democrats always shower on those hostile towards America never seems to extend to fellow countrymen here at home.” “During his presidential election, he wound up with a record-shattering $750 million in his campaign. To this day he refuses to report from whence it came. One reason might be that some of it originated from the terrorist group Hamas, which also endorsed Obama.” “Obama’s science czar, John Holdren, has publicly advocated that trees be allowed to sue us in court, that we should engage in drastic population control by implementing forced abortions and sterilization, and that we should design a global regime to redistribute wealth.” “During the 2008 campaign, President Obama pretended to turn his back on some extremists from his past. ‘You want freedom? You’re gonna have to kill some crackers! You gonna have to kill some of those babies!’” “Van Jones, self-avowed and unabashed Communist, was appointed to the position of green jobs czar. He held that position until his controversial views led to his resignation. Jones believed the September 11 attacks were staged by the U.S. government.” “By circumnavigating confirmation hearings, and instead appointing these people to powerful positions within our government, Obama and the Democrats are admitting their views are far too extreme for Americans to accept, so they do it by fiat.”

(EW Jackson is the grifter whose email I featured over the week-end.)

Think Progress has more — the least surprising revelation being the Big Money connection.

This is the essence of the Citizen’s United decision (although I don’t think it applies directly because the film isn’t about a particular candidate.) But the case was all about a lying, right wing corporate sponsored hit job like and I would guess 2012 will have some major Cecil B DeMille epics on tap. Unless television stations are inclined to fact check and reject them on journalistic grounds — something both Fox and ABC are obviously none too concerned about — then they’ll run.

Welcome to Corporateworld. Have a nice stay.

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Make Andrew Breitbart Cry —- Again

by digby

A real American hero tells it like it is:

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Halloween Horror

by digby

A reader sent in this extremely apt quote for a Halloween night by none other than HP Lovecraft from 1936:

“As for the Republicans—how can one regard seriously a frightened, greedy, nostalgic huddle of tradesmen and lucky idlers who shut their eyes to history and science, steel their emotions against decent human sympathy, cling to sordid and provincial ideals exalting sheer acquisitiveness and condoning artificial hardship for the non-materially-shrewd, dwell smugly and sentimentally in a distorted dream-cosmos of outmoded phrases and principles and attitudes based on the bygone agricultural-handicraft world, and revel in (consciously or unconsciously) mendacious assumptions (such as the notion that real liberty is synonymous with the single detail of unrestricted economic license or that a rational planning of resource-distribution would contravene some vague and mystical ‘American heritage’…) utterly contrary to fact and without the slightest foundation in human experience? Intellectually, the Republican idea deserves the tolerance and respect one gives to the dead.”

Boo.

Update: Here’s an interesting post about Lovecraft’s evolution from quasi racist Republican to the above. Hint: The Great Depression
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