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Month: June 2011

Prematurely right

Prematurely right

by digby

Paul Krugman observes an important political phenomenon:

This is actually a fairly familiar thing from my years as a pundit: the surest way to get branded as not Serious is to figure things out too soon. To be considered credible on politics you have to have considered Bush a great leader, and not realized until Katrina that he was a disaster; to be considered credible on national security you have to have supported the Iraq War, and not realized until 2005 that it was a terrible mistake; to be credible on economics you have to have regarded Greenspan as a great mind, and not become disillusioned until 2007 or maybe 2008.

He’s right, of course. And it goes back a long way. I don’t know how long, but I do recall that leftists who joined the Spanish civil war against the fascists were excoriated at the time and later dubbed “premature anti-fascists.” Being right too early is never fully forgiven, I’m afraid. Perhaps the next question is why this is always aimed at the left?

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Tangled web

Tangled web

by digby

Now, it’s true that nobody cares what Rick Santorum thinks, but he has articulated the central conundrum of the Obama presidency:

A visibly angry Santorum told Fox News host Greta Van Susteren that Obama’s targeting of corporate jet owners defies the candidate’s pledge to bring Americans together.

That is the basis of GOP strength: Obama promises to bring the two sides together, they refuse to cooperate and then blame him for failing to fulfill his promise. Meanwhile the Village media tut-tuts themselves into a frenzy if he’s the tiniest bit confrontational and the country blames him right along with the Republicans because they hate the fighting and believe Gloria Borger when she tells them both sides are acting like children.

Maybe it’s not such a good idea to promise to bring people together when they have fundamental disagreements about how to solve our problems and one side has gone completely insane.

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Solution: clap like crazy for the confidence fairy, she’s all we’ve got.

Clap like crazy for the confidence fairy

by digby

Jon Stewart takes issue with both sides of the aisle for their stubbornness in the debt ceiling talks and asks if there’s anything they both agree upon. Then he shows some funny clips of Democrats and Republicans saying that the other side is kooky and delusional. What he fails to note is that there is one thing that both sides have already agreed upon: somewhere in the neighborhood two trillion dollars in spending cuts.

The only thing that’s currently under debate is whether some gluttonously profitable oil companies should get their subsidies cut (until their lobbyists can sneak them back in) and whether CEOs should have to pay a little bit more in taxes for their corporate jets. That’s the substance of the partisan argument. And somehow, I have the feeling that the Democrats are not going to tank the world economy because of CEO jet travel. And neither are the Republicans. The real problem is what they’ve already agreed to.

Dday has a great piece on that subject today in which he points out that the only leverage the Democrats have left is to deploy the so-called constitutional option, whereby the president simply orders the treasury to pay the nation’s debts. I don’t expect that will be necessary since I don’t think the wholly owned subsidiaries of Wall Street in the congress are interested in angering their masters. (It’s interesting that Tim Geithner apparently mentioned it today. It appears that the pageant is going to have quite the suspenseful third act.)

But Dday’s analysis of the real stakes in this kabuki shows they are much higher than people are acknowledging:

I’m not only worried about the problem of the debt limit. I’m worried about the solution. Near-term fiscal contraction is going to kill an already sick economy. If anything will produce market uncertainty, it’s a double-dip recession, which is entirely possible in an extreme scenario where there’s a lot of deficit reduction at the federal level to match all of it at the state level. No less than Bill Clinton explains this:

“If they [the Republicans] said, look, that now is not the time for big tax increases to harm the recovery, they would be right,” Clinton told ABC News in an exclusive interview at the Clinton Global Initiative America conference in Chicago. “But it’s also right to say that now’s not the time for big spending cuts.

“What I’d like to see them do is agree on the outlines of a 10-year plan and agree not to start either the revenue hikes or the spending cuts until we’ve got this recovery underway,” Clinton added. “The confidence that the Republicans say would be given to investors with a budget plan, they’d get whether we started this year or next year or the year after that, for that matter.”

For the first time, the former president is focusing his Clinton Global Initiative on creating jobs here in the United States. He suggested waiting for the recovery to take hold before pushing spending cuts and tax increases will make the issues clearer.

“We’ve got to get the jobs back in this economy again,” Clinton said. “The more people we get going back to work, the more businesses we start, that’ll bring up the revenue flow, and it will cut down on the expenses. Then, we’ll see what the real dimensions of our problem are.”

Well, we wouldn’t want to do that, now would we? We might find out that a good portion of these deficit projections were based on the fact that 20 million people who wanted to work full time couldn’t find a job! That would waste this marvelous Shock Doctrine moment. (Having the Democrats lead the way is just icing on the cake…)

Everyone who reads this blog already knows what I think of these “negotiations.” There’s simply no excuse for the Democrats to have gotten to this point in the first place and I hold them equally, if not more, responsible for the repurcussions. There can be no excuses — “the president had no choice” or “they didn’t have the votes.” Bullshit. The GOP signaled long ago what they were doing. The Dems could have held tough for a clean vote — and taken it to the people if they had to. Would they have been any worse off politically than they are now?

How’s this working out for them:

Where are the adults in Washington?
By Gloria Borger, CNN Chief Political Analyst

Call me old-fashioned, but when the president and congressional leaders get into a tussle over who should be “leading” the country in matters of real national consequence, I feel like sending them to their rooms.

(Good thing she didn’t use the “d” word or she might have gotten in trouble.)

Clearly, the Democrats believe that at the end of the day massive spending cuts will be so popular that the beltway and the people will reward them with fawning press and a big majority. I’m guessing they’ll get the first, but if it tanks the economy even more I’m guessing that Michele Bachman is their only hope. They’d better pray the confidence fairy is so impressed with all this that it waves a magic wand and creates a gigantic boom that will make everyone in the country so rich that even the old and sick will be able to survive just by picking up the hundred dollar bills that are lying all over the sidewalks.

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Greg Sargent exposes the Village Virgins

Village Virgins

by digby

Oh hell, I had half a post written about this Mark Halperin flap (he said the president was “kind of a dick” on Morning Joe)and then saw this by Greg Sargent and realized it had already been written.

I’m sorry, but this is crazy. Halperin’s crack was crude and dumb, but it doesn’t deserve indefinite suspension. Halperin’s use of an expletive is trival when compared with the degradation of our political discourse we witness on a regular basis from Halperin and many others — degradation that is seen as perfectly acceptable because no curse words are employed. Suspending Halperin only reinforces a phony definition of “civility” in our discourse, in which it’s unacceptable to use foul language and be “uncivil,” but it’s perfectly acceptable for reporters and commentators to allow outright falsehoods to pass unrebutted; to traffic endlessly in false equivalences in the name of some bogus notion of objectivity; and to make confident assertions about public opinion without referring to polls which show them to be completely wrong.

I care less about Halperin’s use of the word “dick” than I do about the argument he and Joe Scarborough were making — that Obama somehow stepped over some kind of line in aggressively calling out the GOP for refusing to allow any revenues in a debt ceiling deal. This notion that Obama’s tone was somehow over the top — when politics is supposed to be a rough clash of visions — is rooted in a deeply ingrained set of unwritten rules about what does and doesn’t constitute acceptable political discourse that really deserve more scrutiny. This set of rules has it that it should be treated as a matter of polite, legitimate disagreement when Michele Bachmann says deeply insane things about us not needing to raise the debt limit, but it should be seen as an enormously newsworthy gaffe when she commits a relatively minor error about regional trivia.

This really is nonsense. It’s not the word “dick” that’s the problem, fergawdsake. It’s not pictures of dicks either. It’s that these people have contrived this absurd set of shallow manners in which saying dick or taking a picture of a dick is wrong while lying, manipulating and cavalierly risking the country’s future (which is what Obama was allegedly being a dick about!) is considered perfectly acceptable.

It’s the perfect manifestation of the Village. A bunch of decadent aristocrats pretending to be virgins and nuns, moralizing over trivia as a “lesson” for the rubes, all the while indulging in a debauched orgy of power and privilege.

Read the whole thing. Sargent discusses Halperin’s personal part in creating this ridiculous system and admits that it’s poetic justice that he would be caught up in it. But keep in mind that among Halperin’s fellow Villagers, calling President Obama a “dick” will be considered an act of macho rebellion — and that being suspended in the middle of the summer is unlikely to be a hardship for a millionaire.

It’s a brave piece for a Washington Post writer to write. Bravo.

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Unbalanced Approach: a conservative apostate sees more clearly

Unbalanced Approach

by digby

Chris Matthews says that today was the birth of a new Barack Obama. A manly man, a macho man, a leader. He’s excited, as usual. But I’m with the conservative apostate David Frum on this:

Congressional Republicans have refused to raise the debt limit unless the Obama Administration agrees to large and immediate spending cuts. They have their finger on the nuclear button and are threatening to detonate unless they get their way. It seems crazy that they would actually do it, but congressional Republicans have done a pretty good job of convincing the Administration (if not yet the financial markets) that they just might do it.[I think the administration knows very well that the Republicans won’t do it, but ymmv — ed.]

Obama has responded by entering into negotiations with the congressional Republicans. These negotiations have not gone well, largely because Republicans are united upon an all-spending-cuts, no-tax-increases approach to deficit reduction.

So what does Obama have to say to that? At his press conference:

Mr. Obama repeatedly mocked tax breaks that he said were for “millionaires and billionaires, oil companies and corporate jet owners,” saying that voters would not look kindly on Republican lawmakers who defended such breaks at the cost of cuts in popular programs like health care, education and food safety.

But he did not explicitly say that he would reject a deal that did not eliminate such breaks, saying that he believed his adversaries would eventually agree to what Democrats have called a “balanced approach” that included trillions of dollars in spending cuts along with tax increases.

“If you are a wealthy C.E.O. or hedge fund manager in America right now, your taxes are lower than they have ever been. They are lower than they have been since the 1950s. And they can afford it,” Mr. Obama said. “You can still ride on your corporate jet. You’re just going to have to pay a little more.”

How lame is this answer?

Let’s count the ways.

1) The stuff about corporate jets is just … crapola really. It’s the Democratic equivalent of Republicans pretending that the deficit can be closed by cutting PBS and the National Endowment for the Arts. If Obama, the supposed grownup in the room, wants to make the case for revenue measures, let him make the case for relevant revenue measures.

2) 30 or so days before a forced default on the financial obligations of the United States seems a poor choice of a time for negotiations over budget measures. Why is Obama allowing himself to be engaged in this way?

3) Why for that matter is Obama surrendering to the demand to change the subject from jobs to deficits? Surely Obama believes that rapid budget-cutting will be deflationary? And therefore irresponsible in the context of 10% unemployment, near-zero inflation, and 1% interest rates on federal debt? Why has he allowed himself to be pushed into measures he regards as irresponsible?

Does he? I think he believes what Tim Geithner believes, which is that austerity is the right policy. It’s all the rage. And that’s the real crux of the problem, isn’t it?

Normally I would think that any erstwhile conservative’s analysis in a situation like this is suspicious, but this argument is simply not partisan, particularly number three, which you hardly hear from liberals much less a Republican. The GOP is all-in on slashing spending, which they want people to believe is a panacea that will cure all our ills. For that matter, so are Democrats, except they want some symbolic tax increases on some symbolic rich people to make the medicine go down a little bit more smoothly. Indeed, the only people who realize this is completely cracked as a matter of economic policy are academic experts, liberal economists and the hated left. And, oddly, David Frum.

Update: Dday had some good commentary on this earlier:

What’s important here is that the tax issues Republicans would have to swallow are trivial. We’re talking about a 5:1 ratio of spending to taxes or worse. Heck, because deficit reduction should not be a priority now, even a 1:1 ratio, seen as some kind of big liberal tentpole, is disreputable. It’s actually a net tax cut from the current baseline; $2 trillion in revenue increases versus $4 trillion in increases if the Bush tax cuts simply expire. What Republicans will have to “accept” is petty compared to what they would get.

Worse than all this, because we don’t know the details yet, is that the President stated a clear belief in the confidence fairy, the idea that if businesses are confident in the fiscal matters of the United States, they will invest in the country and create jobs. This is a completely ahistorical statement that’s impervious to logic. But there we are. Obama said that deficit reduction is part of an overall strategy of job growth. He mentioned a couple job-creating strategies as well, but mainly that was just extending the current payroll tax cut (not a net stimulus if it extends current law) and some mumbling about infrastructure. The infrastructure mumbling was actually one of the better moments, but if that’s offset by deficit reduction, it doesn’t really amount to much.

Then he calls on 235 economists to explain:

We, the undersigned economists, urge Congress to raise the federal debt limit immediately and without attaching drastic and potentially dangerous reductions in federal spending. Not doing so promptly could have a substantial negative impact on economic growth at a time when the economy looks a bit shaky. In a worst case, it could push the United States back into recession.

Why do I have that same disoriented feeling I had in late 2002 and early 2003 when all of Washington decided that we needed to do something ridiculously expensive and counterproductive even though it was patently obvious that it was lunacy?

Is this just the new normal?


Update II:

The gasbags are out in force tonight. When questioned by Spitzer about the left’s discontent over the measly “revenue” proposed in the debt ceiling pageant, Gloria Borger replied that that for Very Serious People the problem was that the president’s rhetoric went too far, rather than not far enough.

What we heard from the president was sort of the “campaign talking points” that we’ve heard from the Democrats on Capitol Hill which is, “you don’t want to end oil subsidies and the corporate titans are still going to get their corporate jets” which, by the way if you took back that tax break would save you three billion dollars over ten years, so that’s not going to solve our fiscal crisis.

So, I think in a way Nancy Pelosi was thrilled with the president’s said today but the people who really want to get a deal done, and by the way that includes people on both sides of the aisle, were kind of scratching their heads and said “well, you know, this makes the job that much more difficult.”

Meanwhile, David Gergen feels that Obama hasn’t shown enough leadership in preparing the country for the horrors from hell that they must endure in order to raise the debt ceiling.

Apparently, he is unaware of the fact that the debt ceiling has been raised every other time without these kinds of conditions and that they could do exactly the same thing tomorrow if they chose. Just because some Tea Partiers came to congress it doesn’t mean that cutting the deficit in order to raise the debt ceiling is a constitutional requirement or a law of nature. It’s just another vote. They don’t have to do any of this.

Oy. Turning off cable news now. Must cleanse brain. Tequila required.

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Define American

Define American

by digby

I think this is a worthy cause.


Just one short week ago, I published a shocking expose in the New York Times. It was my life story. I am an undocumented immigrant, an outlaw in my own country. Since publishing “My Life As an Undocumented Immigrant,” I have been drowning in media requests, tearful letters, and powerful Facebook messages. I want to thank all of the individuals who have both challenged and supported me, as well as ask those who have not yet done so to join me.I decided to quit my job as a Pulitzer-prize winning journalist and come out about my immigration status in order to launch the project “Define American.” I knew it would be a risk, but I also knew it was long past time to strike up a more civil, inclusive debate about immigration in America. After all, I had a unique story to tell, and I was tired of staying silent.We may not all agree on how to fix it, but one thing we can all agree on is that our immigration debate is out of control and our immigration system is badly broken. I believe that not only can we do better, but that we must.Will you sign the pledge to stand with me — Jose Antonio Vargas — in saying that it’s time for a new national conversation on immigration? Define American. Pledge to ask questions, debate, listen, and learn.Some would say my story is the tale of a hard-working immigrant who defines the American dream: achieving success against great odds, working hard, and even earning a Pulitzer Prize for my reporting. Still, despite everything I’ve achieved, the law still says I am not technically an American. I am undocumented.
I want to ask my fellow Americans: what would you do, if you found out at age 16 that you didn’t have the right papers? As a journalist, my job is to ask questions that spark conversation. Now I am asking you to join in. Sign the pledge to “Define American”, share it with everyone you know, and then leave us a comment about what you would do if you found out you were undocumented. I will bring your comments with me as I head to the next round of media interviews.We all have a story to tell, so let’s talk. Let’s debate. Most importantly, let’s listen.

These are brave people:

In Georgia, six young undocumented immigrants risked deportation on Tuesday by staging a protest in the state capitol. The demonstrators — most high school aged — were arrested after they sat and blocked traffic, declaring their status and denouncing anti-immigrant state policies. The young people were specifically directing their protest at a policy that bars Georgia’s most competitive universities from accepting undocumented immigrants. The protest is the latest in a string of so-called “coming out” demonstrations throughout the country, intended to pressure lawmakers into adopting policies that would favor young undocumented immigrants seeking higher education and other rights. Meanwhile on Capitol Hill, the Senate held its first-ever hearing Tuesday on the DREAM Act, legislation that would provided young undocumented immigrants a legal pathway to citizenship through attending a university or serving in the military.

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“The fundamental divide is between trimming Medicare and ending Medicare”: Really?

“The fundamental divide is between trimming Medicare and ending Medicare.”

by digby

So Jonathan Chait thinks we should give the Lieberman-Coburn “Ryan Lite” plan to destroy Medicare a chance. I’ll let you read the article to decide if it makes any sense to you or if it sounds more like it should be a satire:

As Sargent notes, Republicans are already attacking Democrats for cutting Medicare. The waters have been muddied, and Democrats are winning anyway. They’re winning because there’s a fundamental divide between trimming Medicare and ending Medicare. That will continue to exist even if both parties agree to Coburn/Lieberman.

That’s the fundamental “divide?” Since when? Certainly, nobody told the people that. And i’m not sure they’re going to find that particularly compelling, especially once they read the laundry list of absurd rationales for slashing the most popular health care program in the country. (Apparently, what we need is for the elderly to have more of their paper thin, easily bruised skin in this game so they’ll stop “over-utilizing” the system. I have to wonder if people who say these things have ever been around an old, sick person in their life?)

And then there’s this:

Now, it’s true that a bipartisan deal on Medicare will help Republicans present the Ryan plan as just a conversation starter they don’t really want to, you know, happen. But everybody still knows this is what Republicans would like to pass if they actually had the power to do so, and Democrats should be able to make this case to the voters. Meanwhile, the deficit is an actual problem, and Democrats need to find politically feasible ways to help solve it. There are bright lines to draw: slashing the already-lean Medicaid program, starving the long-starved domestic discretionary budget, and failing to require any sacrifice from the affluent. “No cuts to Social Security and Medicare” is the wrong place to draw the line.

Right, those are the most politically feasible ways to close the deficit. People love that stuff. It’s catnip to voters.

As I said, just read it and decide for yourself if any of it makes sense for even one liberal in good concience to pay attention to it.

However, I would just remind everyone that all of us write things off the cuff that we later wish we hadn’t written. Such as this piece Jonathan Chait wrote back in November of 2006 in which he suggested that the US should put Saddam back in power to tamp down the insurgency.

Here’s the piece I wrote on that which featured an exchange from the old Tucker Carlson show:

We’ve learned that there are worse things than totalitarianism and one of them is unending chaos…My argument is not an entirely cynical argument… One of the things that foments chaos is the expectation of chaos, when people’s behavior changes, when they don’t see any established order, and one of the few things we’ll be able to do, I was sort of supposing, would be the return of Saddam Hussein — he has high name recognition, people know who he is, they know what he’s capable of doing and you have, it’s still a recent enough that he was in charge of the state, that you still have the Baath army units and the infrastructure to put in place. So I was hypothesizing that this may be the only force capable of actually ruling the country, not that we want that by any means, it was horrendous, but simply that you have order, I mean it might be the best of some very, very, bad alternatives.

TC: Best for us. It seems to me the one thing about Saddam, as deranged as he may have been, he did have something to lose, he didn’t want to die, and he wasn’t a religious nut, he was incredibly brutal. Does that tell us something about what we would need to do in order to secure Iraq. I mean, he killed people with poison gas, Was that something he had to do? Was that required?

Chait: No I don’t think so. But look, he’s psychotic so you can’t assume that anything a psychotic man does is something he rationally had to do. And he would still be psychotic if he was in power. There would be no doubt about it. I mean, it certainly would be better for us,

We wouldn’t have the Iranian influence and you wouldn’t have Iraq becoming a potential terrorist haven, both things that threaten us a great deal, if we had Saddam in power. You would have someone who would brutalize his own population but again you’re getting that right now anyway and you might be getting less of it if he returned.

TC: Obviously we’re not… because there is a civil war, and according to NBC it officially begins today, that kind of implies we ought to pick a side. And in fact pick a strongman to preside over the country in a less brutal way than Saddam did, but in a brutal way nonetheless and keep that place under control? Should we pick a side?

Chait: I don’t know. I think I’m probably like you. You read all these proposals about what to do with Iraq and there all people who specializing in the topic and know more about it than I do and probably more than you do and it just doesn’t sound that convincing and when they pick apart the other guy’s proposal, when they say “here’s why we need a strongman and here’s why partition won’t work” and you say “that makes a lot of sense” and the other person says “here’s why we need partition and why the strongman won’t work” and that seems right also, so that sort of the mode I’m in. I just don’t know what to do. The only time anyone seems convincing is when they say why everything else won’t work.

I know it’s unfair to look in the rear view mirror and play the blame game. I only do it to show that making a totally ridiculous argument can happen to anyone. Repeatedly.

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Lindsay Lohan, financial pundit

Lindsay Lohan, financial pundit

by digby

I saw this yesterday (someone re-tweeted it) but I assumed it was one of those fake twitter accounts:

As a general rule we turn to the likes of Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, economists, Nobel Prize winners to give us their take on important financial issues like inflation. But in the Twitter age, everybody has an opinion on just about everything.

So I guess it wasn’t too surprising to read this tweet today: “Have you guys seen food and gas prices lately? U.S. $ will soon be worthless if the Fed keeps printing money!”

Of COURSE the tweet was from…Lindsay Lohan. She later clarified to her two-million-plus followers that it was a sponsored tweet. But then added that: “I actually do care about gas and food prices, so whether it’s an #ad or no [sic], it’s important for people to be aware of it.”

Evidently nobody knows who the sponsor was, but we can probably guess. And it’s actually pretty smart. Lohan’s followers probably don’t care about politics and certainly won’t care about any controversy over this. But the meme will make its way into the ether at what I assume is a very low cost.

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A letter from a Californian

A Letter From A Californian

by digby

Michael Keegan writes to our former Governor:

Dear Arnold:

How does it feel? Any pangs of regret?

On Friday, the governor of New York signed a marriage equality bill, hours after it was passed by the legislature. It’s being called a monumental historic victory and is in the news all around the world. The suspense leading up to it built for weeks, ending in a cliffhanger finish that rivaled your biggest Hollywood blockbusters. New York’s Gov. Andrew Cuomo has been called a true hero, and is even being mentioned as 2016 presidential material. And he’s not even a showy guy. Just imagine what you could have done with this in a state twice the size of New York!

But what Andrew Cuomo signed was something that you vetoed… twice.

To put it bluntly: where you cowered, Cuomo led.

And I’d like to thank all of my fellow liberals who voted for Arnold because they really liked The Terminator and thought Gray Davis was like totally boring.

But I do think Keegan is being too harsh here. After all Arnold was just taking his duty to protect our moral values very seriously …

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Ceiling Strategery

Ceiling Strategery

by digby

From his press conference today, it would appear that the president’s negotiating strategy really is to give Republicans huge cuts in spending (and “make his base give him a hard time”) and then shame them into “meeting him halfway” by agreeing to mildly raise taxes on some luxury items like corporate jet travel. (Luckily, he reassured the nervous CEOs by saying “you’ll still be able to ride on your corporate jet, you’ll just have to pay a little more” so hopefully they won’t have a fit.)That’s what constitutes shared sacrifice and fiscal responsibility. Good to know.

Now, I have no idea if the Republicans will “blink” and pretend that despite their deeply principled opposition to any kind of tax increase (because it will cost jobs, dontcha know) and eventually agree to this measly demand. But if they do, be sure to look closely because I don’t think it will be a blink at all — it will be a wink. Somehow, I just have a feeling that at the end of the day John Boehner will be able to get just enough Republicans on board with this “deal” to raise the debt ceiling. (Or maybe not, in which case the president will have to find some other face-saving item to call a win.)

Either way, once the debt ceiling is raised with much drama and phony suspense, the whole GOP caucus should go into a room and give Boehner a standing ovation.

Update: Oh, in case you were wondering, we must focus on jobs at the same time as we slash spending.”We can walk and chew gum at the same time.” So in the short run, Keynesianism really is dead. (I imagine it’s dead in the long run too — just like all of us.)

Update:

On tax breaks: These are good for boosting the economy, so we need to do them. (Bipartisanship!) We must restore business confidence, and nothing does that like more tax cuts. But we need to cut the deficit.

By the way, the MSNBC crawler under Obama: “61% disapprove of how Pres Obama has handled federal budget deficit (from McClatchy-Marist)”

I’m guessing that’s because everything he says on the economy lately sounds like mush.

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