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Month: June 2011

Framing a guilty man

Framing a guilty man

by digby

Wow, it looks like somebody (gosh I wonder who?) was trying to frame Anthony Weiner even as he was working hard to detroy himself:

At least three months before the revelation that former Representative Anthony D. Weiner was sending lewd messages and photos to women online, a small group of self-described conservatives was monitoring his exchanges with women on Twitter. Now there is evidence that one or more people created two false identities on Twitter in order to collect information to use against him.

A Twitter user employing a fake name posed as a 16-year-old California high school girl in May and tried to get Mr. Weiner to be her prom date, according to people with knowledge of the communications and a review of documents. The person behind another Twitter account created under a fake name claimed to be her classmate and offered to provide the group with incriminating evidence about Mr. Weiner.

Mr. Weiner, who resigned on Thursday after admitting he had sent explicit photos and messages to multiple women on social media sites, had already been the subject of intense focus on Twitter by the conservative group, which calls itself the #bornfreecrew.

One Twitter user the group observed seeking to interact with Mr. Weiner was called “Nikki Reid.” She started an online campaign to get Mr. Weiner to be her prom date at Hollywood High School in May, using the account @starchild111. Within days after Mr. Weiner started following her, a Twitter user, also using a fake name, Marianela Alicea, and pretending to be Nikki Reid’s classmate, contacted a member of the #bornfreecrew and said she had information about Mr. Weiner, but never provided any.

¶ But there is no evidence that either girl exists. There is no Nikki Reid or Marianela Alicea enrolled at Hollywood High School. In response to requests from a reporter from the blog Mediaite, a woman claiming to be Nikki Reid’s mother provided documentation to substantiate her identity and her daughter’s identity. But records show the street address the woman provided does not list anyone named Reid as an occupant. State officials in California have confirmed that the driver’s license this woman provided to Mediaite was false, as well.

Read on. It obviously doesn’t change the fact that Weiner was a very foolish man to indulge his fantasies in public — even more foolish than we knew, actually. But, it does show that people were not being simple partisan hacks for thinking there was something fishy about the whole thing. I’m fairly sure there’s more to this story, but I’ll be surprised if all comes out now that he’s no longer in the congress.

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Bachman’s new narrative

Bachman’s New Narrative

by digby

Bachman came up with a very creative and potentially dangerous new line of attack at the Republican Leadership Conference yesterday and she’s reportedly repeated it in Minneapolis this morning at the Right Online confab:

NEW ORLEANS — Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, the latest candidate to join the Republican presidential campaign, suggested Friday that President Obama secretly wanted Medicare to go bankrupt so retirees would be forced to enroll in the new national health care law.

“This hasn’t been talked about very much – the president’s plan for senior citizens is Obamacare,” Ms. Bachmann told party activists here. She added, “I think very likely what the president intends is that Medicare will go broke and ultimately that answer will be Obamacare for senior citizens.”

In a speech to the Republican Leadership Conference, Ms. Bachmann recounted how she attended a closed-door meeting at the White House and said the president was asked three times to produce his plan to address the financial burdens facing the Medicare program. She said the president’s “gift to senior citizens is to steal from them $500 billion out of Medicare.”

The anecdote, which Ms. Bachmann did not explain in detail or offer additional corroboration, was the latest example of a red-meat, crowd-pleasing declaration that has become a theme of her political rise – whether or not the statements withstand scrutiny. She drew enthusiastic applause as she pledged that her top priority – should she reach the White House – would be repealing the health care law.

How do you like them apples?

Needless to say this is an amazing projection since the truth is that Paul Ryan’s Medicare plan much more closely resembles “Obamacare” and the GOPs fondest dream is to force everyone from cradle to grave back into the health insurance system of the early 20th century — i.e, those who are rich enough to afford health care can have it. It’s the liberals who want to turn “Obamacare” into Medicare.

Still, you have to appreciate the cleverness of her approach here. Where other candidates like Romney and Pawlenty speak in wonk speech, Santorum in the style of a culture warrior and Palin in snarky word salad, Bachman has a way with weaving certain ideas together in a way that speaks to the right’s Fox-addled conspiratorial worldview. It’s hard to know if she’s personally confused or just opportunistic, but when someone weaves together various strands of conservative talking points into a coherent story like this it can be very powerful. And it’s the kind of thing that turns liberals into pretzels trying to rebut.

She’s going to be influential in this race. It will be interesting to see how the others deal with her.

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Lawyer shopping

Lawyer Shopping

by digby

There’s been a lot of ironic and unpleasant news this week but this has to take the cake:

President Obama rejected the views of top lawyers at the Pentagon and the Justice Department when he decided that he had the legal authority to continue American military participation in the air war in Libya without Congressional authorization, according to officials familiar with internal administration deliberations.

Jeh C. Johnson, the Pentagon general counsel, and Caroline D. Krass, the acting head of the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel, had told the White House that they believed that the United States military’s activities in the NATO-led air war amounted to “hostilities.” Under the War Powers Resolution, that would have required Mr. Obama to terminate or scale back the mission after May 20.

But Mr. Obama decided instead to adopt the legal analysis of several other senior members of his legal team — including the White House counsel, Robert Bauer, and the State Department legal adviser, Harold H. Koh — who argued that the United States military’s activities fell short of “hostilities.” Under that view, Mr. Obama needed no permission from Congress to continue the mission unchanged.
[…]
Other high-level Justice lawyers were also involved in the deliberations, and Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. supported Ms. Krass’s view, officials said.

Matthew Miller, a Justice Department spokesman, said, “Our views were heard, as were other views, and the president then made the decision as was appropriate for him to do.”

The irony, of course, is that President Obama is the fellow who ran for president as the one true liberal who wouldn’t have voted for the Iraq War. Indeed, I think many of the votes he got were purely on the basis of that one position. Now we have another war and this same person defies the Office of Legal Council and the Pentagon’s legal counsel to prosecute it without congressional approval. Whodda thunk it, eh?

Well, actually I think the president’s Iraq war opinion was always overblown. When push came to shove in the campaign and Obama voted for FISA, it was pretty clear on which side of these issues he was going to come down. The constitutional scholar has always tended to see these things in somewhat utilitarian terms.

Maybe he just didn’t want to have a debate with the congress or maybe he really believes this claptrap about Libya no being a real “war.” Either way, I think we can finally put to rest the argument about President Obama’s principled unwillingness to use the power of the Executive branch to get his way on policy. This proves he’s more than willing to use it when he wants to.

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The new American dream, Perry-style

The New American Dream

by digby

Joshua Holland has a great piece up today about Rick Perry’s “Texas Miracle.” Read the whole thing for the details about why the Federal stimulus saved him even as he demonized it and how the only reason they’ve “created” more jobs is because they’ve had a huge influx low wage labor from Latin America that needs to buy toothpaste and milk from somebody. But this conclusion tells the tale:

At a fundraiser this week, Rick Perry, who despite toying with the idea of secession in the past may now be eying a White House bid, told a group of Republican fat-cats that in his state, “you don’t have to use your imagination, saying, ‘What’ll happen if we apply this or that conservative principle?’ You just need to look around, because they’ve been in play across our state for years, generating real results.”

In this, Perry is absolutely, 100 percent correct. He slashed taxes to the bone, handing out credits to his political cronies like they were candy. He decried the evils of Big Government while hypocritically using federal stimulus funds to help close Texas’ budget gap in the short term, and now he’s using the state’s longer term fiscal disaster – one of his own creation – as a premise for destroying an already threadbare social safety net serving the neediest Texans. As a result of these policies, plus immigration and other external factors, his state’s added a lot of low-paying poverty jobs without decent benefits. He’s added very little in the way of “prosperity.”

But that truly is a big success in GOP terms. The thing to remember is that they have managed to crate most new jobs at the minimum wage level while seeing their wealthiest “producers” make tons of money (on which they pay nothing in taxes.)That’s their version of the American dream.

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The “outside the deficit” scam

The “outside the deficit” scam

by digby

Dday caught up with some big Dems at Netroots Nation and got them on the record about this AARP cave in. Wasserman-Shultz said that cuts are “off the table” (at least until the Republicans agree to raise revenues …)

But this struck me as the root of the current controversy:

Sen. Mark Begich also commented on this. He showed me on his Blackberry the clarification statement from the AARP. “We’re clear, as Senate Democrats, that it’s not part of the deficit discussion,” he said. “It’s a mathematical issue, and we can resolve that. But it’s not a part of the deficit.”

He’s using the financial industry talking point “it’s a math problem” which refers to the trope that suddenly we’ve found out that there aren’t enough workers to support retirees. (This is not true — the ratio has been more or less the same for about 30 years.) But that’s just rote rhetoric. It’s the other part of it that’s a trap.

What I’m hearing in this from AARP and Begich and people like Kay Bailey Hutchison (who “coincidentally” dropped her Social Security destruciton plan yesterday) is that they’ve got some kind of agreement to “tackle” Social Security outside the deficit talks around the debt ceiling and the budget. It’s a very neat and tidy compartment of the Grand Bargain. Here’s Hutchison on the AARP’s statement:

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, who on Thursday unveiled her own Social Security reform package, said Friday that the AARP has marked “a huge shift in the debate on the solvency of Social Security.”

Ms. Hutchison went on to say that her hope is “that Social Security is included in the bipartisan discussions on raising the debt ceiling, as it is an opportunity to fix this important entitlement for seventy-five years rather than just focusing on a short-term Band-Aid.”

Hutchison, who is retiring, is the designated Social Security extremist in this battle. Her plan would raise the retirement age to 69 for everyone under the current age of 58. As you can see, she’s also demanding that Social Security be part of any deficit talks for no apparent reason, just as the Democrats are all firmly insisting that they will have none of it. (As if that’s the issue …) I think we can all see the outlines of the agreement here, can’t we?

So we’re looking at cuts to Social Security and eventually many rationales as to why they are “the best they could do.” On the Democratic side, we’ll be told that an agreement to only discuss Social Security outside the deficit discussions was a big win for the good guys. Why something that doesn’t affect the deficit and is solvent so far in the future should even be on the agenda at a time of crippling unemployment and a moribund economy remains a mystery.

The truth, of course, is that the deficit is beside the point in all these discussions. The Grand Bargain was conceived long before it was a major issue. These talks are really about changing the nature of American government — which apparently will be accomplished by cutting social programs and the safety net.

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The temptation of McKinsey

The Temptation of McKinsey

by digby

Greg Sargent has been closely following this emerging scandal over the McKinsey study I wrote about here. I was as credulous as anyone, and not just because McKinsey studies are often cited and I had no reason to doubt it. But it was also because it tracked with my gut feeling about what will happen when the system changes so that employers can opt out of offering health coverage. Obviously it’s always tempting to jump on something that validates your gut feelings, but in this case it is becoming clear that there’s something drastically wrong with the study and any credence I put into it must be withdrawn.

Having said that, I still think this is a weakness in the plan, regardless of what employers say now about what they plan to do in the future. It’s only logical that if they feel there is an alternative to paying for or even administering this benefit many of them will take it. (I’ve dealt with human resources departments over the years and one thing that’s patently obvious is that they fall on the “expense” side of the ledger.) Therefore, if the job market and rules of the road allow, I doubt very much that those who can opt out won’t see it as a viable alternative. This won’t be a problem if workers are compensated for the price of a comparable policy in the exchanges. But if they aren’t this would end up being a net loss for working people.

I’m hopeful that won’t happen. (It’s possible that I misunderstand the various mechanisms that make it even feasible.) But it’s always been something that seemed a little bit “off” about the ACA’s promise that “nothing would change” if you already have insurance. However, what seems to be even more “off” is McKinsey’s study, so that certainly doesn’t offer any validation of those concerns and anyone citing it at this point is basically citing bullshit.

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Getting what they wanted all along

Getting what they wanted

by digby

Ezra’s well connected to this debate so I’m assuming he knows what he’s talking about:

Michael Gerson describes what top Republicans are saying will be in the final budget deal

A package of immediate and specific budget cuts; budget caps reaching out five years to reassure conservatives that tough budget decisions will be made in the future; Medicare reforms short of the House approach; no tax increases — a Republican red line — but perhaps additional revenue from the elimination of tax expenditures.

I’m hearing mostly the same thing. The debt-ceiling deal looks like it’ll be almost entirely composed of cuts and caps. Whatever revenues are in it will be token contributions, at best. There won’t be structural reforms to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, and there won’t be a pass at tax reform. The budget caps will make automatic cuts to spending if we’re not on a path to primary balance by 2014. The big question with the cap is whether it just makes automatic cuts to spending or it also raises taxes. It’s not obvious to me why the Democrats would fold on that last point, but they might.

What this means is that Democrats and Republicans have agreed that the “grand bargain” isn’t spending cuts for tax revenues, but entitlement reforms for tax revenues.

Excellent. Except we have no idea what those tax revenues are except for some symbolic cuts of a few easy corporate subsidies. But I guess the idea is that if the Democrats put “entitlements” on the menu then surely the GOP will meet them halfway. What could go wrong?

Knowing as we do that the outcome of the debt limit “fight” was pre-ordained (they were always going to raise it) what this really means is that the Democrats wanted to make the parameters of the 2012 budget fight around entitlement cuts and allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire as scheduled. And apparently they want to be forced to cut spending radically in the second term. In other words, a big win for the austerity fetishists. I hope the confidence fairy is duly impressed.

As for the politics, I’d guess the Democrats think this will “take deficit reduction off the table” so they can start talking about #winningthefuture, but I think that may be just a little bit delusional. After all, the Republican electoral argument is that deficit reduction is the key to growth and jobs. They aren’t going to let it go, especially since they now know how to play it.

Obama will say that he’s shown great leadership by being willing to rein in spending and will run on allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire as the Democratic “win” in the Grand Bargain — but only if he’s re-elected. The Republicans will say that Obama’s profligate spending has exacerbated the unemployment crisis and that raising taxes when the economy is sputtering will make things even worse. Who knows what people will believe? I suspect they’ll see Obama as the better bet. That’s the beauty of having the opposing party be batshit insane.

So, whichever jersey you wear, and whatever problems you have with the policies, you’ll be told to clap louder — to drown out the sound of the plutocrats’ laughter.

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AARP joins the Grand Bargain

AARP joins the Grand Bargain

by digby

So the big news today, aside from apparent shock by some observers at Netroots Nation that people there aren’t totally satisfied with the President (he lifted DADT after all)is that the head of AARP made the statement that the organization wants to be at the wheel when the government rams the Social Security Titanic right into that iceberg. Seriously:

“The ship was sailing. I wanted to be at the wheel when that happens,” said John Rother, AARP’s long-time policy chief and a prime mover behind its change of heart.

This article is in the Wall Street Journal which obviously has an agenda. But the quotes are direct and what the story lays out is a big fight within the organization — with Rother winning the argument.

Now, I don’t know if this is true but it tracks with everything else we know about the specious arguments going around:

His argument: Tax increases wouldn’t be enough to make the program solvent. The leading proposal for raising taxes—increasing the amount of income subject to payroll taxes, the central financing mechanism for the program—would fill less than half the hole. Moreover, Republicans were not going to accept a plan that didn’t include benefit cuts. The idea that both tax increases and benefit cuts were needed dovetailed closely with plans put forward by several separate commissions in Washington seeking to ease the U.S.’s long-term fiscal woes.

“There was good, healthy discussion,” said John Penn, chairman of Intek Plastics Inc., a member of AARP’s board. “Healthy tension usually results in better answers, but sometimes it’s painful in the process.”

When Mr. Obama considered making a Social Security proposal early this year, Mr. Rother indicated he would be supportive, said two people familiar with the matter. But the White House opted to hold off.

I’m guessing there’s a reason why he’s gone public now.

He claims they don’t want this to be in the “context” of deficit reduction, but that’s just silly. If the conversation is taking place right now, it’s in the context of deficit reduction. And interestingly, the only conversation that seems to be seriously discussed is cuts to the safety net — I certainly haven’t heard much about tax hikes or defense cuts. (Oh wait, that’s right, the GOP agreed to reduce a couple of subsidies to hugely profitable corporations so everybody now has “skin in the game” and it’s even-steven.)

Moreover, the Grand Bargain was always about a major deal involving the two parties coming together under the guiding hand of the post-partisan president. The Republicans laughed at the notion but they did see an opportunity to get a whole lot of concessions from the Democrats for next to nothing in return.(#didn’ttakeapoliticalgenius)

And they have been extremely good at working the various levers of power in ways that Democrats simply refuse to do. This shot across the bow a couple of months ago, for instance, probably had an effect:

[T]he two committee chairmen leading the hearings insist their investigation is neither a form of political payback nor an effort to sully the organization’s reputation. Says Wally Herger, chairman of the Ways and Means Subcommitte on Health:

This hearing is about getting to the bottom of how AARP’s financial interests affect their self-stated mission of enhancing seniors’ quality of life. It is important to better understand how AARP’s insurance business overlaps with its advocacy efforts and whether such overlap is appropriate.

Not that AARP doesn’t deserve some scrutiny for these arrangements, but the Republicans didn’t bother to ask such questions when the organization was backing their play on prescription drugs. They play this sort of hardball when they want something. In this case, I think everyone knew that both parties want to cut Social Security but they have this little problem with the people they represent not wanting them to do it. AARP has been enlisted to try to smooth that out.

AARP claims they are going to hold a series of townhall meetings to explain their position to their members. I’m not one of them, having dropped my membership after a year when I realized that it was mainly an insurance and investment broker. But for those who are members, I would think these meetings would be a great place for people to stand up en masse and rip up their AARP cards. If the organization is willing to be used, at the expense of their members, by those who seek their own aggrandizement and agenda, then they are pretty damned useless.

Update: AARP’s statement:

AARP CEO A. Barry Rand offered the following statement in response to inaccurate media stories on the association’s policy on Social Security:

“Let me be clear – AARP is as committed as we’ve ever been to fighting to protect Social Security for today’s seniors and strengthening it for future generations. Contrary to the misleading characterization in a recent media story, AARP has not changed its position on Social Security.

“First, we are currently fighting some proposals in Washington to cut Social Security to reduce a deficit it did not cause. Social Security should not be used as a piggy bank to solve the nation’s deficit. Any changes to this lifeline program should happen in a separate, broader discussion and make retirement more secure for future generations, not less.

“Our focus has always been on the human impact of changes, not just the budget tables. Which is why, as we have done numerous times over the last several decades, AARP is engaging our volunteer Board to evaluate any proposed changes to Social Security to determine how each might – individually or in different combinations – impact the lives of current and future retirees given the constantly changing economic realities they face.

“Second, we have maintained for years – to our members, the media and elected officials – that long term solvency is key to protecting and strengthening Social Security for all generations, and we have urged elected officials in Washington to address the program’s long-term challenges in a way that’s fair for all generations.

“It has long been AARP’s policy that Social Security should be strengthened to provide adequate benefits and that it is sufficiently financed to ensure solvency with a stable trust fund for the next 75 years. It has also been a long held position that any changes would be phased in slowly, over time, and would not affect any current or near term beneficiaries.

“AARP strongly opposed a privatization plan in 2005, and continues to oppose this approach, because it would eliminate the guarantee that Social Security provides and reduce benefits, and we are currently fighting proposals to cut Social Security to pay the nation’s bills.

“Social Security is a critically important issue for our members, their families and Americans of all ages, especially at a time when many will have less retirement security than previous generations with fewer pensions, less savings and rising health care costs. And, as we have been for decades, we will continue to protect this bedrock of lifetime financial security for all generations of Americans.”

Rother’s quote in the article indicates that they already believe it’s in the mix and they have decided to become part of the negotiations, which is the real problem.

I think if they truly aren’t going to allow SS to used as a chip, somebody needs to clearly state that they are not going to endorse any changes to Social Security right now due to the volatile nature of the unrelated deficit debate. It’s insane to even talk about it right now. We have much more immediate problems to deal with.

Update II: I see that Eric Kingson has already suggested burning the AARP cards. There’s a nice symmetry to that, since AARP members are all baby boomers whose first activities in politics were around burning their draft cards.

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The formula: all they’ve got to do is embarrass the right people …

The Formula

by digby

It’s sadly ironic that on the same day Anthony Weiner finally acquiesced to the demands of his party leadership that he step down for having embarrassed them with icky pictures, the GAO released this report:

A report issued today by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) finds little to support the charges that led to the demise of the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (ACORN), a grassroots consumer advocacy organization driven out of existence by Congressional critics.

The GAO found that monitoring of awards to ACORN by government agencies generally consisted of reviewing progress reports and making site visits. Of 22 investigations of alleged election and voter registration fraud, most were closed without prosecution, the report found.

One of eight investigations of alleged voter registration fraud resulted in guilty pleas and seven were closed without action due to lack of evidence.

The Federal Election Commission (FEC) reported five closed matters – one resolved, one dismissed and the others dropped after FEC “found no reason to believe the violations occurred.”

[…] In 2009, conservative activists released selectively edited videos claiming to show ACORN employees giving advice on hiding prostitution activities and avoiding taxes.

The videos created a nationwide controversy that resulting in Congress passing laws that prohibited federal funds from being awarded to ACORN. The group disbanded in March 2010 In December 2009, New York U.S. District Court Judge Nina Gershon ruled that Congress had violated the Constitution by singling out ACORN and banning it from receiving federal funds but the ruling was overturned by a federal appeals court, which found that federal funds amounted to only 10 percent of ACORN’s funding and therefore Congress’ action did not amount to punishment, even though it may have been unjustified.

The GAO report identified about $48 million in federal grants and contracts that had been awarded to ACORN and its affiliates from 2005 to 2009.

The ACORN and Weiner scandals, different as they are (although the common thread is the sexy, obviously) have a similar lesson in them for all Democrats inside and outside the beltway: it doesn’t matter if you committed a crime or broke any rules or even were the victim of a hoax — once you’ve embarrassed the Democratic political class, you will be cut loose.

I’m sure Breitbart’s got his next set of victims all lined up. And remember, it won’t do you any good to just be “smarter” or “more moral” than anyone else because it doesn’t even have to be true.

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Pricking the Perry Bubble

Pricking The Perry Bubble

by digby

The beltway press is all aquiver to start pounding the story line that Rick Perry is a job creating hunkorama. The fact that his state is about to fiscally implode will have no effect and neither will the fact that he is an even doofier George W. Bush with better hair.(Let’s not forget that he served under Junior for six years as Lieutenant Governor.) What they are looking for is “proof” that hardcore GOP economic dogma works so they can pretend that we have a serious ideological duel and Perry’s phony hagiography will provide it.

However, it isn’t true. Think Progress points out:

As the Austin American-Statesman noted, “while the national unemployment rate is 9.1 percent and the Texas unemployment rate is 8 percent, some 23 states, including New York, have lower unemployment rates.” …Between 2008 and 2010, jobs actually grew at a faster pace in Massachusetts than they did in Texas, and “Texas has done worse than the rest of the country since the peak of national unemployment in October 2009.” But as it turns out, Texas is leading the nation in one employment metric — the number and percentage of minimum wage jobs:

Additionally, Texas has by far the largest number of employees working at or below the federal minimum wage ($7.25 per hour in 2010) compared to any state, according to a BLS report. In 2010, about 550,000 Texans were working at or below minimum wage, or about 9.5 percent of all workers paid by the hour in the state. Texas tied with Mississippi for the greatest percentage of minimum wage workers…From 2007 to 2010, the number of minimum wage workers in Texas rose from 221,000 to 550,000, an increase of nearly 150 percent.

If they could get rid of that pesky minimum wage I’d bet they could create even more of those fabulous low wage jobs.

Texas is basically a banana republic racing to destroy its middle class entirely. And that is the true GOP vision for America, no doubt about it.The question is whether or not the political media is going to go all goo-goo eyed over the haircut and the accent and forget to tell the people the truth.

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