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Month: August 2011

There’s Still Time by David Atkins

There’s still time

by David Atkins (thereisnospoon)

Consider this post a friendly reminder that there is still time to help out with the recall efforts in Wisconsin. The Progressive Change Committee and Democracy for America have an easy-to-use web tool for making calls to Wisconsin voters to help turn the tide back against the ultra-wingnut takeover of the Badger State.

Turnout is a mixed bag so far, and the pollsters say these races are very close and will depend on turnout. There are still three hours left for voters to get to the polls, and the period from 5-8 pm is crucial for turnout operations to get folks who feel tired and hungry after coming home from work, to make that extra push to get out and vote.

Every call you make helps ensure that Scott Walker’s destruction of the rights of working Americans stops today.

There may not be much we can do to affect the economy or change the mind of Washington about austerity. But this is something we can do. Please make some calls today and strike a blow for democracy, the middle class, and working people across America.

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The snake oil “cure” for all that ails us

The snake oil cure for all that ails us


by digby


Propublica did an excellent public service by putting together a handy list of economic data, a la Harper’s Index. It doesn’t even include the long term income inequality data and it’s still quite something, just on its own:

That is a picture of a very sick economy.

What’s the answer? You guessed it: The grand bargain, which has now become such an article of faith among Democrats that it’s the default answer for what ails us:

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Mitchell: After Monday’s historic plunge, stocks are on the rise today for now, but underneath it all nothing has really changed and now all eyes are on the fed. Gene Sperling is director of the national economic council and assistant to the president and joins us now. Gene, what can the president do?

Sperling: I think what the president needs to do is what he said yesterday, Reemphasize, do everything in his power to make clear that we as a country have got to act in a bipartisan way both to do more in terms of short-term growth and job creation and to make clear that we’ve got greater certainty of long-term fiscal discipline. We need both of those things. I think what we’ve seen many the last week is that there is real harm to the kind of firm line drawing in the sand that gives not only our American people but markets the sense that we can come together to solve the important problems we need both for short-term growth and long-term fiscal discipline. I think the president reaffirmed that yesterday. I think there are more members of congress, more in the American people who understand that type of putting our economy first, politics second is what is an imperative for all of us right now.

Mitchell: so far, it’s been a lot of politics first, putting the economy second from all sides. there’s just been a a lot of finger pointing all around. What do you want to see from the Fed today? Do you want to see a third round of quantitative easing?

Sperling: You know that smart economic advisors at the white house don’t comment on the independent federal reserve and particularly not an hour before they’re about to speak.

Mitchell: well, what about the ideas and what about possible ideas for calling congress back? there’s actually been some criticism even from friends. You heard from a number of Democrats that the president should have been stronger yesterday. That he should have been more focused. He should be by this time calling congress back.

Let me play a little bit of a conversation today from former governor and former senator and former Goldman Sachs Ceo Jon Corzine with Joe Scarborough.

Corzine: first of all, we ought to send out signals of confidence. It’s easy to sit on the sidelines when you’re not governing. I would love to see the president call the leaders of congress back to washington in the next week, walk out together and say we’re going to do the Grand Bargain.

Scarborough: what a great signal that would send.

Corzine: it would send an enormous confidence setting tone for the market.

Mitchell (to Sperling): why not call them back?

Sperling: Andrea, as you know, there is not a single leader who did more, worked harder went more the extra mile than president obama did to put that grand bargain together. He has helped sign this important downpayment on deficit reduction. He’s made clear in every way possible that he wants a grand bargain. That that requires having both entitlement reform —

Mitchell: This is a crisis. Why not? Why not have John Boehner come back to Washington and have them sit down and try to pick up where they left off?

Sperling: Andrea, the issue, let’s be very clear, the issue is not how many times they meet together. The issue is getting a meeting of the minds that we need bipartisan compromise. People can be assured this president will do everything that is constructive and productive to bring together that Grand Bargain. But what we need is we need everyone to stop drawing firm lines many the sand. every budget expert, every independent expert. Everyone knows that requires a combination of entitlement reform and tax reform that both contribute to deficit reduction. The President’s reached out, will continue to reach out.

What we need is more pressure on those who are insisting on just firming up their positions, refusing to compromise to decide nothing’s off the table and that they’re willing to come to that table with an open mind and the spirit for job growth measures and to take the tough entitlement and revenue measures that are needed to give us, put us on a path of long-term fiscal soundness.

Mitchell: but, Gene, finally, even the New York Times today is saying, where is the broader vision from President Obama? Can you tell us did the President even pick up the phone and call John Boehner? Have they had private conversations since the s&p downgrade?

Sperling: Andrea, what this president has done has been as significant as anything I’ve seen and courageous as anything I’ve seen a president do. This is a president at a time when many of his supporters said we should save Medicare to make it more of a political issue said, “we are going to be serious, we are going to be willing to do modest, reasonable Medicare reforms and other entitlement reforms as part of a comprehensive effort with tax reform that would raise revenues on those who can most afford it to bring down our deficit. I don’t know how much more the president can do in sending that message.

And anything that the constructive, anything that will help lead to that effort this president’s going to do. We’re going to focus on the results not just having public meetings. We’re focused on what will bring that result. That’s what the president is calling for. That’s why I went out yesterday and made clear. Drawing firm lines in the sand has real negative consequences for our economy.That’s been very clear over the last week.

We have got to bring everybody together for a compromise, a Grand Bargain to give us the confidence and soundness we need on our long-term fiscal situation and the room to do more significant things on spurring job growth in the short-term.

If anyone was unclear about what the focus of the administration is going to be — or wondered if this “pivot to jobs” means something other than a Grand Bargain, I think we can pretty much put that to rest.

Remember:

“Indeed, the White House seems to want to tamp down the sense of urgency, given Jay Carney’s statement that they do not believe a double-dip recession is imminent,” Sides notes, referring to the White House press secretary’s comments last week. “If people are panicking, they’re only going to go with the other guy,” adds the Democratic aide.

Update: Senator Reid has announced his Super Commissioners — Patty Murray, John Kerry and Max Baucus. Surprisingly, Baucus is probably less of a problem than Kerry:

Before their talks broke down last month, President Obama and Mr. Boehner were pursuing a “grand bargain” that sought savings of $4 trillion over a decade.

Senator Kerry also endorsed that goal. The United States must show the markets that it is “deadly serious about dealing with its long-term structural debt,” he said, and the way to do that is by “putting a plan on the table, $4 trillion plus, if necessary.”

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Checking in with the loons — somebody’s spitting on the flag and it isn’t a hippie.

Checking in with the loons

by digby

In case you were wondering what the right wingers were doing in response to the recent economic turmoil, here are couple of good examples.

First, they are lying of course. Here’s self-serving liar in chief, Rush Limbaugh today talking about the fabulous economy that the Obama administration inherited from George W. Bush and how he is sinking it on purpose so that black people can finally stick it to the white man:

Well, he inherited a AAA credit rating, an unemployment rate of 5.7%. Does anybody doubt that this is on purpose?

(If you doubt the sticking it to the white man part, check this one out.)

And then there are the Tea Partiers up in Wisconsin cheering their role in downgrading the United States’ triple A rating:

I can’t tell you how disconcerting that is. This is, after all, they hyperpatriotic political tribe who have, during my lifetime, made a fetish out of national pride (and belittling any criticism as “blaming America first.”)

This is truly something new in my experience, a form of destructive right wing nihilism that I don’t recognize. Usually this sort of accusation would have resulted in strong denials, and righteous indignation that anyone would ever blame them for doing something destructive to the US of A.

It looks to me as if their “revolution” has reached a critical point. It will either turn into a truly revolutionary force to “bring down the state” (the methods TBD)or they will disappear back into the GOP fold, having made it far more reactionary and destructive than it has been before. I don’t know which way it’s going but either way they’ve given up any claim they have to being the patriotic defenders of the flag and country with their proud willingness to bring it to its knees for what appears to be the sheer pleasure in seeing it go down.

Lying, America haters. That’s the Tea Party circa 2011. They would have fought on the side of the British.

Update: obviously, I wasn’t clear. I don’t believe the tea can actually be a “truly revolutionary force to ‘bring down the state.'” No, I don’t think these elderly folk on disability are actually going to take up arms and march on Washington. Only that they could delusionally begin to see themselves as “succeeding” with destructive consequences. Take, for instance, their apparent desire to default on the nation’s debt and their pride at being the instrument of the US’s credit downgrade. Power of any kind is very intoxicating. And these people aren’t that bright.

Nothing to see here. Move along. By David Atkins

Nothing to see here. Move along.

by David Atkins (“thereisnospoon”)

It’s becoming old hat between Digby and myself to point this out by now, but the lack of irony here is worth repeating just one more time. The New York Times covers the continued economic troubles in the Asian markets this morning:

The turmoil in the world’s financial markets showed little sign of abating on Tuesday, with selling once again sending stock markets in Asia lower as investors dumped equities in favor of traditional havens like gold and U.S. Treasury securities

In the short term, the focus was set to shift to the Federal Reserve’s meeting later on Tuesday, with the market looking for any guidance or signals about the possibility of the Fed’s injecting any further monetary stimulus to help stem the confidence crisis.

The fear is that the upheaval could ultimately weaken the wider economy by constraining the ability and willingness of banks to extend credit to businesses and making it harder for companies to raise money from the capital markets…

Friday’s decision by Standard & Poor’s to downgrade the United States’ credit rating — once deemed bulletproof — deepened the uncertainty but was not in itself the only cause of the current sell-off, many analysts and market strategists believe.

Rather, the downgrade, combined with the widening of the debt worries in Europe, highlighted the fact that governments in many parts of the developed world are having to rein in spending at a time when private-sector spending is still anemic.

These concerns have helped send equity markets around the world sharply lower in recent weeks, while pushing “safe haven” assets like gold, the yen and the Swiss franc to record levels.

So let’s recap: an out-of-control and increasingly unregulated financial industry causes the greatest economic crash since the Great Depression through greed and irresponsible leverage, and then gets bailed out by taxpayers around the world. In the U.S., this is coupled with tax cuts disproportionately benefiting the same irresponsible “investors” that sent the economy into a tailspin.

The subsequent recession drives government deficits sky high due to lack of growth and lack of tax revenue, even as the financial industry that caused the mess rebounds to record profitability on the backs of ordinary citizens suffering in deep recessionary conditions.

The global financial industry then uses its ratings agency pawns to put the squeeze on sovereign nations worldwide to force “austerity,” essentially destroying the capacity of entire nations to care for their people so that the wealthy bondholders who crashed the economy in the first place can be sure to get their money back. In addition, that is, to the money their entire industry was bailed out with in the first place.

The squeeze in question by the bondholders and ratings agencies is a threat to downgrade currency bonds, essentially making borrowing by sovereign nations much more expensive. Even the United States is not immune, and sees its credit downgraded for the first time in history–ostensibly making borrowing more expensive.

The global rush to austerity further hurts growth across the world, causing increased uncertainty, political hyper-partisan tensions and riots, deepening recessionary conditions across all sectors. This time, even the financial sector gets hurt. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve considers more stimulus, but only in the form of “quantitative easing,” a polite phrase to describe stimulus that helps the financial sector reap even greater profits, but does precious little for anyone else.

The economic and political turmoil leads the world’s investors to rush to…yes, you guessed it again: currency holdings, and Treasuries in particular. Why? Because they’re just as safe as they’ve always been, and the smart money knows it. The protection racket threats were always just that: threats. “Nice dollar you have there. Would be a shame if anything happened to it. Now hand over your social security fund, and everything will be just fine.

The rush to purchase currency holdings strengthens those bonds, making the cost of borrowing by sovereign nations incredibly cheap. In other words, the protection racket threat against sovereign nations by the financial sector and their ratings agency goons has now led to the opposite effect: strengthening the very currencies they were threatening. Now would be the perfect time for these countries to borrow money for Keynesian jobs programs to pull the world out of recession, and yet the austerity bandwagon rolls merrily down the hill unabated.

And what of the media in all this? The New York Times reports on the recessionary conditions, international austerity measures, the S&P downgrade and the rush to currency holdings as if they were part of some loosely connected or even disconnected series of discrete unfortunate happenstance, rather than a deeply ironic direct chain of events destroying the capacity of sovereign nations to function, explicitly caused by a financial sector that would barely even exist but for the largesse of those same sovereigns.

And, of course, no one but the dirty hippies (and maybe honorary hippie David Frum) dare point out the obvious insanity of all this, or even attempt to slow down the self-reinforcing destructive austerity train aptly described by the Shrill One himself:

It’s not the whole story, but something like this threatens to develop:

1. US debt is downgraded, sparking demands for more ill-advised fiscal austerity

2. Fears that this austerity will depress the economy send stocks down

3. Politicians and pundits declare that worries about US solvency are the culprit, even though interest rates have actually plunged

4. This leads to calls for even more ill-advised austerity, which sends us back to #2

Behold the power of a stupid narrative, which seems impervious to evidence.

When historians write about this period, it will be in terms of amazement at the collective hysteria of elite intelligentsia, combined with shock at the ruthlessness of the titan financiers and the all-too-easy cowing of once proud nations.

If, that is, there are any historians left by the time the social consequences of all this destruction are finally played out.

More portents of bad deals to come

More portents of bad deals to come

by digby

In case you were wondering about those defense cuts:

In a letter on Friday, Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) asked President Obama to repudiate Defense Secretary Leon Panetta’s insistence that in order to deal with the nation’s debt and deficit, additional revenue should come from tax increases and cuts to entitlement programs, such as Medicare, instead of the reducing military spending. TPM notes that Obama gave his answer in an speech today in which he backed Panetta. Obama said there isn’t much more to cut beyond the defense and domestic spending reductions that were part of the debt ceiling deal last week. “What we need to do now,” Obama said, “is combine those spending cuts with two additional steps: tax reform that will ask those who can afford it to pay their fair share and modest adjustments to health care programs like Medicare.”

It was fairly clear that Panetta’s speech was backed by the White House, but that clears up any possible confusion.

President Obama did very specifically say “modest adjustments to health care programs” in his speech today. What’s interesting about that is that the Republicans are all demanding that he put “Obamacare” on the table.I wonder if he will — and if they are now including that under the term “entitlements.”

Politico put it differently this morning:

WHITE HOUSE TO CONGRESS: “WE MUST DO BETTER” – Statement yesterday from Jay Carney: “The President believes it is important that our elected leaders come together to strengthen our economy and put our nation on a stronger fiscal footing. The bipartisan compromise on deficit reduction was an important step in the right direction. Yet, the path to getting there took too long and was at times too divisive. We must do better to make clear our nation’s will, capacity and commitment to work together to tackle our major fiscal and economic challenges.

“Over the past weeks and months the President repeatedly called for substantial deficit reduction through both long-term entitlement changes and revenues through tax reform, with additional measures to spark jobs and strengthen our recovery. That is why the President pushed for a grand bargain that would include all of these elements and require compromise and cooperation from all sides. Over the coming weeks the President will strongly encourage the bipartisan fiscal committee as well as all members of Congress to put our common commitment to a stronger recovery and a sounder long-term fiscal path above our political and ideological differences.”

Politico helpfully editorializes, hinting broadly that the powerful liberal bloc was to blame for any inability to get it done:

It’s increasingly obvious that both sides should have found a way to finesse a “grand bargain” that would have guaranteed more deficit reduction by addressing entitlements. The fact that President Obama signed the “Budget Control Act” in private reflects the distaste for it among Dems. Would YOU have liked to be the one to invite Leader Pelosi to a Rose Garden signing ceremony? Didn’t think so.

Yeah, that crazy San Francisco lib did it again.

Meanwhile, as focus shifts to the Super Congress, the big game in town is guessing who’s going to be appointed. Sam Stein reports:

Senate Democratic leaders are winnowing down the names on the short list and they are leaning strongly against including some of the party’s most notable budget hawks.

Two senators, in particular, were said to be unlikely to end up on the committee: Max Baucus (D-Mont.), who chairs the Finance Committee, and Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), who chairs the Budget Committee.

Final decisions have not yet been made, two aides cautioned. But two other Democratic aides with knowledge of deliberations said they would be very surprised if either ended up on the final list.

But they are considering Mark Warner. Mark Warner, the Gang of Six member who was talking up the Grand Bargain last April.

@NatashaChart tweeted earlier today, “is there now any more loathsome phrase in english than ‘grand bargain’?” I don’t know, but it’s certainly one I wish would disappear.

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Guns of Brixton

Guns of Brixton

by digby

Ok, this is starting to get real:

London’s emergency services were on full-scale alert on Monday night as rioting, fires and pitched battles with police erupted around the city from late afternoon.

The Metropolitan police poured hundreds of extra officers on to the streets as trouble flared in the north, south and east of the capital.

In Hackney, east London, masked and hooded youths smashed up shops and threw missiles, planks of wood and wheelie bins at riot police. Several abandoned vehicles were set alight. There were also violent scenes in Lewisham, south-east London, where petrol bombs were reportedly thrown at officers, and shops looted. A bus was torched in nearby Peckham as police struggled to respond to the spread of sporadic violent incidents.

Witnesses said a 100-strong mob cheered as a shop in the centre of Peckham was torched and one masked thug shouted: “The West End’s going down next.” A baker’s next door was also alight. One onlooker said: “The mob were just standing there cheering and laughing. Others were just watching on from their homes open-mouthed in horror.”

This story is making me feel young again but not in a good way:

The New Yorker has a nice brief rundown on what led to this:

Like the 1981 riots, this weekend’s riots come early in the term of a Conservative Prime Minister at a time of deep cuts to public and social services. Tottenham, which has a large African-Caribbean population, has the highest unemployment rate in London, and the eighth highest unemployment rate in the U.K. Many of the jobs in the area are dependent on public funding. In the vacuum left by vacationing senior politicians, David Lammy, the Labour M.P. for the area (“from Tottenham, for Tottenham”) was left largely alone to deal with the media over the weekend. Standing near the hulls of burned-out buildings, Lammy told reporters, “The vast majority of people in Tottenham reject what’s happened. A community that’s was already hurting has had the heart ripped out of it.” Today, Clegg denounced the weekend’s events as “needless and opportunist theft and violence—nothing more, nothing less,” and, in a way, they were: it is unlikely that the people stealing sneakers from the Foot Locker on Brixton Road were planning to wear them to Mark Duggan’s funeral. But where have all the opportunists been between 1981 and now? In the agitated heart of a anxious nation, the riots seemed just the latest plague.

If this keeps up, Prime Minister Cameron’s decision to stay in Tuscany on his fabulous vacation may end up looking like this:

Update: Looks like Cameron’s coming back to handle the crisis. Of course, Bush did too … but it was too late.

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Of madness, crisis and Barack Obama by David Atkins

Of madness, crisis, and Barack Obama

by David Atkins (“thereisnospoon”)

Pscyhologist Nasser Ghaemi is the author of the provocative new book A First-Rate Madness, a treatise that argues that many of history’s greatest leaders have had minor to moderate mental illness, and that their mania did not in fact detract from their leadership capacity but significantly aided it. NPR ran a fascinating interview today with Mr. Ghaemi about his work, and though the subject of current national leadership did not come up, Mr. Ghaemi’s thesis may shed some valuable light on the topic. From the New York Observer’s book review:

“I am now the most miserable man living,” Abraham Lincoln wrote in 1841. According to Mr. Ghaemi, this is a kind of boast; Lincoln’s greatness was nourished by his glumness. “Lincoln’s depression enhanced his political realism,” he writes. Mr. Ghaemi identifies four categories of aptitude in which the compos mentis lag the mad: resilience, creativity, realism and empathy. A panoply of studies supports these claims. The mentally healthy tend to be overconfident, uninspired, thin-skinned and soundproofed from the suffering of others. Writes Mr. Ghaemi, “Depression deepens our natural empathy, and produces someone for whom the inescapable web of interdependence … is a personal reality, not a fanciful wish.” This is the theory of depressive realism. Those who see the glass as half empty may simply have better eyesight. Normality is a form of unreality.

To all this, however, Mr. Ghaemi appends two whopping provisos. The first is that mentally unbalanced leaders can succeed only in times of crisis. “In these hard times,” as William Tecumseh Sherman said in 1861, “it is hard to say who are sane and who are insane.” As the crisis ebbs, and the distinction between sanity and insanity reboots, the latter loses its usefulness. The trajectory of Churchill, who prospered in wartime but floundered in intervals of peace, exemplifies this.

The other proviso is a paradox, which Mr. Ghaemi terms “The Goldilocks Principle.” The Goldilocks Principle states that insanity is beneficial only in moderation. Too much insanity—outright psychosis—is debilitating. Too little does nothing.

Yet insanity is excessive by definition, a lawless swerve from the norm, and anything less is going to be hard to distinguish, as it were, from mere distinction. For instance: “It takes more than a typical amount of self-awareness,” Mr. Ghaemi writes, “to realize that one is wrong and to admit it.” This is true. Yet it seems unlikely that self-awareness must travel to the cusp of psychosis before it can admit to error. Mr. Ghaemi assures us we are drinking moonshine, but it tastes like mostly water. “[F.D.R.] knew only that people were hurting; he knew what it was like to hurt; and his personality would not allow him to sit still.” The attempt to make mild abnormality look insane has the unintended effect of making insanity look banal.

This point is extremely important: during times of crisis and upheaval, it takes leaders of deep empathy, powerful conviction and enormous creativity see their people through. Technocratic bourgeois commonsense, in the context of crisis, is not only overrated, but can be actually harmful, according to Ghaemi:

But Mr. Ghaemi is smarter than this, and his description of the homoclite, or “rule-follower”—his chosen term for the mentally normal—lays bare the thorn that has snared him. Homoclites, we are told, are “very, very middle class,” “middle-of-the-roaders in every way.” They are bland, affable, docile. “[Tony] Blair came from classic homoclitic stock, solidly middle class, soundly religious,” he writes. So did George W. Bush, Richard Nixon and Neville Chamberlain.

Without delving too deeply into pop pscyhology or Barack Obama’s mental state, there is nonetheless an important lesson to draw from this. Barack Obama is, by all accounts personal and political, the epitome of calm. He almost never loses his temper. He doesn’t have ups or downs. He takes the often contradictory advice he is given, and attempts to fashion compromise from its workings, taking what he feels to be the most practical approaches from the right and center-left alike, and then navigates toward the path of what he feels to be the realm of the politically possible. Much to the delight of his still copious supporters, his nickname is No Drama Obama.

Kevin Drum is correct when he argues against Drew Westen that Barack Obama does in fact have a narrative, but not the one progressives might have wished for. Obama’s narrative is of the great uniter, the calm in the face of the storm, the almost Bodhisattva-like figure of the utterly unflappable man who will transcend the politics of left and right to steer the nation gently over tortured seas.

The problem with that narrative is that this sort of figure is precisely Mr. Ghaemi’s archetypical homoclite: the inoffensive, terribly bland, imperturbable man of talk rather than action. The sort of person who measures ten times before cutting once. Ironically, this is precisely the sort of leader who is least effective during times of crisis. Lincoln, Churchill, FDR and Kennedy were manic personalities, constantly on the edge of depression, philanderers and romantics. None of them could come close to being labeled “no drama.”

His neoliberal politics notwithstanding, I have said in the past that Barack Obama might make a good, even great president during times of stasis and normalcy. His approach to problems is precisely the sort that is needed to steer calmly through times of peace, prosperity, and bipartisan sentiments.

But the great complaint with Barack Obama isn’t so much about what he has done, as about the opportunity he has largely squandered. America stands at a precipice, at a time of great crisis. A time when bold, aggressive and determined leadership is called for. It is a time when America needs drama. After the near wrecking of the country by a combination of conservative and neoliberal policies of war, supply-side economics and deregulation, America needs a vision. The New Deal was not rational: in the context of its time, the New Deal was an irrational theory of what society could be, yet untested in the world. When John F. Kennedy told Americans to ask not what their country could do for them, but what they could do for their country, and told Americans that their country would–for no apparent rational reason–land a human being on the surface of the moon, America was desperately ready to take up the challenge. When Kennedy’s advisers told him to escalate the Cuban Missile Crisis, Kennedy made the seemingly irrational decision to stand down: a decision that may have saved the world from nuclear winter.

After the crash of 2008, America desperately needed something irrational to believe in. America wanted to believe. America wanted to hope, and not for small things or minor advances, but to hope for a great change as yet unproven. It was Obama’s great gift in 2008 to tap into that collective national desire, even when the nature of the change on offer was unclear.

As part of a California Assembly campaign I managed in the fall of last year, I conducted a couple of pro bono focus groups with Democratic-leaning moderates and independents. Prior to delving into my candidate’s own issues, I covered a range of national topics, including perceptions of Barack Obama and other leading figures such as Sarah Palin. In the course of the discussion of Sarah Palin, most respondents thought she was crazy and didn’t agree with her. But astonishingly at the time, a theme kept re-emerging: several voters in each group expressed a variation of the following sentiment, which I repeat here almost verbatim: I voted for Obama. I think Sarah Palin is crazy, but I’d vote for her over Obama next time, because things need to change. Maybe a little bit of crazy is what we need right now.

Heaven forbid that these voters get the kind of crazy they’re seeking from the likes of Rick Perry or Michele Bachmann. But the core of their point is well taken. Mr. Ghaemi and these moderate, independent voters are right: in these times of crisis we could all use a little more manic vision, and little less “no drama.”

The Grand Bargain Determination

The Grand Bargain Determination

by digby

On MSNBC as the market was closing down 634 points:

Thomas Roberts: We had an economist on earlier who said that blood is on the hands of the SP if we see another recession. Is that the view, do you think, of the White House?

John Harwood: I think that is partially the view of the White House. Certainly you’ve seen from Democrats, you saw from David Axelrod, the president’s political adviser yesterday, he called this the Tea Party downgrade. And even though the President didn’t say it, or Treasury Secretary Geithner didn’t say it, they clearly are pointing to the intransigence and resistance of the Republicans that would require tax increases as the reason behind this downgrade.

So I think they’re are multiple forces to blame and, of course, if you look at the longer view, Democrats have supported many of the spending programs [entitlements] that have gotten us into this place as well.

Roberts asked Harwood if there was any merit to the idea of calling congress back and he said that it was too risky because they might be deadlocked again and make things worse. He explained that the White House is fully invested in the Super Committee process and will be offering its ideas in the near future:

Harwood: At this point the administration’s investing its hopes in that process and hoping they turn the negative energy of the downgrade into the positive energy and momentum of a public push for them to make a Grand Bargain

Nothing, not ongoing 9% unemployment, not predictions of another recession, not a rout in all the budget negotiations, not even the S&P downgrade will make the White House stray from its goal, stated clearly before the inauguration, of a Grand Bargain. This is obviously what they want as their legacy and this crisis will not deter them. Indeed, it is an opportunity to press harder. They aren’t feckless — they are determined.

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You can believe me or you can believe your lying eyes — democrats style

You can believe me or you can believe your lying eyes — Democrat style

by digby


Moody’s weighs in with a hearty high five to the fiscal scolds:

As financial markets struggled to digest the unprecedented downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s issued a new report making clear that just because it still has America at a AAA grade, that status was far from a sure thing. In fact, Moody’s could also issue a downgrade before 2013 if the nation’s economy worsens or lawmakers lose their focus on getting the nation’s finances in order.

The firm said it would “closely monitor” progress in Washington when weighing the nation’s rating.

And Washington, unfortunately, is paying attention:

Before their talks broke down last month, President Obama and Mr. Boehner were pursuing a “grand bargain” that sought savings of $4 trillion over a decade.

Senator Kerry also endorsed that goal. The United States must show the markets that it is “deadly serious about dealing with its long-term structural debt,” he said, and the way to do that is by “putting a plan on the table, $4 trillion plus, if necessary.”

Recall that Kerry is supposed to be one of the economic liberals, holding the line.

Meanwhile, the Tea Party has upped the ante:

The new panel will have 14 weeks to do its work. Republicans have made clear that they will push for cuts in federal spending under the new health care law, arguing that it should be on the table along with other government programs and tax breaks. The Congressional Budget Office says the law will cover 34 million uninsured people by expanding Medicaid and subsidizing private insurance at a cost of $1.1 trillion over 10 years.

S.&P. did not advocate a specific mix of increased revenue and spending cuts. But it did say that overhauling entitlement programs was “key to long-term fiscal sustainability” and that the debt deal “envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare.”

Ezra says that partisan divisions will only get deeper if the economy tanks further. He’s talking about any chance for further stimulus (for the most part) but considering what these people are really contemplating, I pray for him to be right. Unfortunately, from the way it looks, they may very well be able to find consensus on the Grand Bargain.

But this revelation from Ezra is somewhat stunning, even for this White House:

Though the White House wants to seem proactive on jobs, advisers know that voters will judge the president on the state of the economy, and they want to dispel the notion that the country is imminently headed toward a cliff. “Indeed, the White House seems to want to tamp down the sense of urgency, given Jay Carney’s statement that they do not believe a double-dip recession is imminent,” Sides notes, referring to the White House press secretary’s comments last week. “If people are panicking, they’re only going to go with the other guy,” adds the Democratic aide. But Obama’s efforts to soothe fears about the economy may also make it more difficult for his Democratic allies to urge immediate, short-term action on the Hill. If there’s no need to panic, then what’s the rush?

Yeah, what’s the rush?

If that’s true we are dealing with the most cynical administration in recent memory. They are planning to do the patented Bush tactic of “you can believe me or you can believe you’re lying eyes”? And they are doing this under the illusion that this will prevent people from “panicking” and voting for the other guy? I’m finding it hard to believe this, actually. If this country is going into another recession, Democrats putting their heads in the sand and pretending like nothing’s happening isn’t going to work any better than it’s been working since the Green Shoots of 2010. They just can’t be this strategically myopic.

Update: The President is on TV right now going on about deficits and compromise and blaance and all the usual ineffectual bromides and endorsing the Gang of 6, Simpson and Bowles and his own aborted Grand Bargain with John Boehner. He does say that he wants to extend the payroll tax cut and Unemployment Insurance and something, something about bridges and roads, so that’s good.

As far as laying the blame for the debacle at the feet of the lunatics who have promised to hold the debt ceiling as a hostage for all time, he had this to say:

This is the United States of America and no matter what some agency may says we always have been and always will be a triple A country. Despite all our challenges we still have the best universities, some of the most productive workers, the most innovative companies, the most adventurous entrepreneurs on earth. What sets us apart is not only that we have the capacity but also the will to act. The determination to shape our future. The willingness in a democracy to work out our differences in a sensible way. And move forward not just for this generation but for the next generation. And we’re going to need to summon that spirit today.

I’ll bet the Republicans are so grateful that the President didn’t blame them for the debt ceiling debacle that they will happily cooperate in future legislative initiatives. Like passing free trade deals. And cutting spending, regulations and taxes.



Update II: Not that I think the President’s speech had anything to do with it, but it’s worth noting that the market’s down 541 as I write this. A couple of hours to go — maybe the bargain hunters will start swarming …

Update III: Krugman on this downgrade doom loop
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