Skip to content

Month: August 2012

Causation or correlation. Does it matter?

Causation or correlation. Does it matter?

by digby

Just saying:

When Kappheim was approached by the arresting deputy, he said “he was very conservative and (his girlfriend) was a liberal.” He also told the deputy that “he felt that he was going to have to kill her,” the report said.

While inside of the woman’s apartment, the deputy said he found documents that made him believe Kappheim is obsessed with Fox News and the Republican Party, and that he may be a danger to others.

I’ve been saying for years that people who are obsessed with Fox news and the Republican Party may be a danger to others.

.

Hopeless, by @DavidOAtkins

Hopeless

by David Atkins

After all the happy Objectivist talk of the last week, it’s time to step back into the real world:

It isn’t easy to stand up in an open courtroom and bear witness to the abject wretchedness of your financial situation, but by the time Doug Wallace Jr. was 31 years old, he didn’t have much left to lose by trying.

Diabetes had rendered him legally blind and unemployed just a few years after graduating from Eastern Kentucky University. He filed for bankruptcy protection and quickly got rid of thousands of dollars of medical and other debt.

But his $89,000 in student loans were another story. Federal bankruptcy law requires those who wish to erase that debt to prove that repaying it will cause an “undue hardship.” And one component of that test is often convincing a federal judge that there is a “certainty of hopelessness” to their financial lives for much of the repayment period.

“It’s like you’re not worth much in society,” Mr. Wallace said.

Nevertheless, Mr. Wallace made his case. And on Wednesday, nearly six years after he first filed for bankruptcy, he may finally get a signal as to whether his situation is sufficiently bleak to merit the cancellation of his loans.

The gantlet he has run so far is so forbidding that a large majority of bankrupt people do not attempt it. Yet for a small number of debtors like Mr. Wallace who persist, some academic research shows there may be a reasonable shot at shedding at least part of their debt. So they try…

No one keeps track of how many people bring undue hardship cases each year, but it appears to be under 1,000, far less than the number of people failing to make their student loan payments. In its most recent snapshot of student loan defaults, the Department of Education reported that among the more than 3.6 million borrowers who entered repayment from Oct. 1, 2008, to Sept. 30, 2009, more than 320,000 had fallen behind in their payments by 360 days or more by the end of September 2010. About 10.3 million students and their parents borrowed money under the federal student loan program during the 2010-11 school year.

I’m sure if all these people stopped drinking, smoking and socializing they’d all be millionaires today.

Let ’em eat cake. Mitt Romney’s coming to town and he needs a tax cut while eliminating their aid. Or maybe Obama will stay in town, and Romney will pay a little more tip money in exchange for smaller cuts to their aid, in order to reduce the deficit caused by a struggling middle class at a time when borrowing money is incredibly cheap. After all, whom else are you going to vote for?

It’s still a moral imperative to vote for the lesser evil. But it’s not surprising if guys like Doug Wallace Jr. just stop voting entirely.

.

Eastwood did Romney a favor

Eastwood did Romney a favor

by digby

Howard Kurtz is just wrong here:

By debating an empty chair that he pretended was President Obama–riffing through a series of strained jokes without a teleprompter–Eastwood ensured that at least half the chatter on Friday morning would be about him, not Romney. But by the weekend, that figure will rise to about 98 percent. And by Monday, Romney’s acceptance speech will be largely forgotten.

I hate to tell you Howard, it was going to be forgotten by Monday anyway. And if Eastwood had given a good speech everyone would have been talking about that today too, saying he should be the one who’s running for president. The problem, you see, isn’t Eastwood, it’s the corporation in a suit called Mitt Romney.

I’ll just take a moment here to disagree a little bit with David’s piece from this morning about Eastwood. I don’t know exactly why he’s doing as much as he is for Romney, but I don’t think it comes out of hardcore right wing convictions. I followed his political career closely when he was mayor of Carmel and doing a lot of public speaking and he’s a self-identified libertarian who is greatly at odds with the rank and file of the Republican Party on many issues close to their hearts. In fact, if he had been prepared and sober last night, he might have made that clear and all those Freepers would have been very uncomfortable. Instead, he was doddering and incoherent, so they just slapped their own views on to his dada-esque presentation and cheered. It was a big missed opportunity for the crazy Paulites (who got screwed at every turn.)

Anyway, while Eastwood’s bizarre performance is what everyone’s talking about today, it doesn’t follow that everyone would have been talking about Romney’s fabulous speech if it hadn’t happened. The speech was dull as dishwater and the greater likelihood is that we’d all have gone back to parsing Lyin’ Ryan’s speech from the night before. Eastwood did Romney a big favor.

Update: Funny —Andrea Mitchell and Brian Williams watching Eastwood:

.

The austerian Democrats: part II

The austerian Democrats: part II

by digby

Yesterday I linked to Corey Robin’s fine piece about the history of Republican “starve the beast” philosophy and the subsequent move by the Democrats to become the conservative avatars of fiscal rectitude (as perfectly personified by Barack Obama’s “balanced approach.”) But this follow up to Robin’s piece at The Current Moment illuminates something else that’s extremely important to recognize:

How are we to understand the rise of Democratic Mugwumpery? Though one might look to the rise of neo-Keynesian theories of monetary and fiscal policy and Stiglitz’s view as Chair of Clinton’s Council of Economic advisors that balanced-budget stimulus was the key to growth, or more sociologically to the decline of organized labor and the decline of social democratic elements in the Democratic Party, we think it is worth noting something specific about the politics of deficit-spending. Big-time deficit spending requires convincing the public that the risk and potential sacrifice is worth it, that there is a specific and significant collective purpose at stake. But the Democrats are most definitely a party without a purpose. Their Mugwumpish attachment to reasonability, living within one’s means, and good government is a substitute for purpose – it is a way of giving the appearance of principled government in the absence of principles.

Consider, for instance, the fact that Republicans have become the big deficit-spenders. Robin notes that the Republican strategy of “starving the beast” by cutting taxes and hoping that spending will be reduced down to new revenue levels has only recently been successful. But as the now familiar graph shows the other major component of the recent growth in deficits has been war.

Republicans get to deficit spend not just because their side will sign-up happily to tax-cuts, but because their constituents believe big-time in war. And war costs a lot. Republicans will “sacrifice” themselves and future generations in the name of fighting a war. Now the Dems are into war too, though not quite like the Republicans. But the Dems can’t quite convince their members that the party should spend money on any other big projects – in fact, they no longer believe it themselves. Democratic spending is buried in the indirect incentive changes and obscure tweaks of the tax codes. But there is no ideal or purpose important enough that people are willing to say “screw it, we’ll come up with the money somehow – the sweat of our brow tomorrow, for the debts we incur today.” Revenue neutrality, offsets, CBO estimates – those are the buzzwords of Democratic fiscal policy. The dull, mind-numbing repetition of wonkspeak is not just a policy program, it is a totemic incantation, hoping to making something real out of the apparition of a party without projects.

Does that ever ring true. Why even the health care plan, which I was assured repeatedly was the greatest moral achievement of the last half century, was sold as “necessary to bend the cost curve.” Wonkery rules.

Sometimes the Party manages to find a leader like Clinton or Obama whose personal charisma is so overwhelming that the people imbue their agenda with meaning beyond the 10 point plan and the spreadsheet. But other than that, there is just not much there other than a desire to appear to be the grown-up in the room.

This strikes me as more psychological than ideological, but I’ll have to think about it a little bit more. There are powerful institutional forces that push politicians into these roles. But I suspect the idea of being the “Daddy Party” holds great allure for many of Democratic wonks and politicians for reasons that have far more to do with personal psychology than anything else.

I urge you to read the whole post. It’s very good. And if you didn’t have the chance to read Robin’s from yesterday, do that too. And keep this in mind as you do:

Obama: My message to Democrats is the same message I’ve got to Republicans and independents, and that is, I want a balanced approach to deficit reduction that combines additional revenue, particularly from folks like me who can afford it, with prudent cuts on both the discretionary side and the mandatory side but that still allows us to make investments in the things we need to grow.

And that means I’m prepared to look at reforms in Medicaid. I’m prepared to look at smart reforms on Medicare. But there are things I won’t do, and this is part of the debate we’re having in this election. I do not think it is a good idea to set up Medicare as a voucher system in which seniors are spending up to $6,000 more out of pocket. That was the original proposal Congressman Ryan put forward. And there is still a strong impulse I think among some Republicans for that kind of approach.

I’m not going to slash Medicaid to the point where disabled kids or seniors who are in nursing homes are basically uncared for. We’re not going to violate the basic bargain that Social Security represents.

Now, the good news is, if you’re willing to raise taxes on millionaires and billionaires, then you can make modest reforms on entitlements, reduce some additional discretionary spending, achieve deficit reduction and still preserve Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid in ways that people can count on. The only reason that you would have to go further than that is if there’s no revenue whatsoever. And that’s a major argument that we’re having with the Republicans.

Update: dday made this important point about Robin’s piece:

The fact that you can draw a line in inverse proportion between what party embraces austerity and what party has the dominant position in the politics of the age should tell you what you need to know about its importance.

That’s right. And today, at a time of great economic turmoil and insecurity, the Democrats have taken on the role of tax collector for the austerity regime. We know the Republicans aren’t serious about any of this. (“It’s yer muneee!”)They will gin up a war in a New York minute if they need some stimulus and most of the country will shout “hooyah,” when they do it. Just look at their campaign. Despite Ryan’s dystopian hellscape plans, they are running as the protectors of Medicare and protectors of the weak and vulnerable — and half the voters believe them. They have fashioned an entire brand that says “government is horrible except for what it does for me personally” and it works.

The Democrats, meanwhile, are bragging about how much they’re willing to slash everybody’s benefits out of some deluded belief that this is what people want to hear. But it’s not. People want “freedom plus groceries” and as far as they can tell, that’s what the Republicans have on offer.

Corey Robin was on Chris Hayes this week-end and talked a bit about this. Start at about 2:10 to hear his comments:

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

By the way, there is another way, if only people will listen. It’s called Prosperity Economics and a whole bunch of Blue America progressives have signed on.


.

David Koch endorses a Grand Bargain

David Koch endorses a Grand Bargain

by digby

Look like we’re getting closer to a deal, kids. The Big Money Boyz are getting their ducks in a row.

David Koch:

“I think it’s essential to be able to achieve spending reductions and maybe it’s going to require some tax increases,” he said. “We got to come close to balancing the budget, otherwise we’re in a terrible deep problem.”

He even said he’d consider some defense cuts.

This is what the Dems have defined as a win.

My message to Democrats is the same message I’ve got to Republicans and independents, and that is, I want a balanced approach to deficit reduction that combines additional revenue, particularly from folks like me who can afford it, with prudent cuts on both the discretionary side and the mandatory side but that still allows us to make investments in the things we need to grow.

Just remember. Austerity-lite is not only unnecessary, it’s counter-productive. There is another option.

.

Rove and the billionaires (and the guy who keeps them “from ever having to wear orange jumpsuits”)

Rove and the billionaires (and the guy who keeps them “from ever having to wear orange jumpsuits”)

by digby

This story about Karl Rove’s billionaire circle jerk illustrates everything that’s wrong with our system. It’s almost impossible to believe that this can be called a democracy at this point:

On the final morning of the Republican National Convention, Karl Rove took the stage at the Tampa Club to provide an exclusive breakfast briefing to about 70 of the Republican party’s highest-earning and most powerful donors. During the more than hour-long session, Rove explained to an audience dotted with hedge fund billionaires and investors—including John Paulson and Wilbur Ross—how his super PAC, American Crossroads, will persuade undecided voters in crucial swing states to vote against Barack Obama. He also detailed plans for Senate and House races, and joked, “We should sink Todd Akin. If he’s found mysteriously murdered, don’t look for my whereabouts!”

Then Rove pleaded with his audience for more money—much more…

The morning began with an address about the urgency of defeating Obama by Florida’s Republican Senator Marco Rubio. Crossroads Chief Executive Officer Steven Law followed and introduced some of the super PAC’s staff, referring to general counsel Tom Josefiak as “the guy who keeps us from ever having to wear orange jumpsuits.”
[…]
Rove explained that Crossroads had conducted extensive focus groups and shared polling and focus group data with “all the major groups that are playing” in the election. “As many of you know, one of the most important things about Crossroads is: We don’t try and do this alone. We have partners,” he said. “The Kochs—you name it.”
[…]
Just to get the “juices flowing” of the billionaires in the room, Rove shared a little anecdote. Someone he described as a “benefactor” had recently contacted him, offering to donate $10 million to be deployed in Florida—$5 million for Republican Congressman Connie Mack’s Senate race against incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson and $5 million for the presidential race. But the donor placed two conditions on the money. One, his donation had to be matched by other donors. And two, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush had to start making phone calls on their behalf. Rove paused for effect and announced: “Jeb’s making phone calls for us!” The crowd erupted.

American Crossroads’ total budget, Rove said, was $300 million, with $200 million of it for the presidential race, $70 million for the Senate, and $32 million for the House.

After screening a collection of television ads aimed at such Senate battleground states as Massachusetts, the fundraising began in earnest. CEO Law said that because of the “tremendous generosity” of many of the people in the room, American Crossroads is two-thirds of the way toward reaching its $300 million goal. But it still needs much more. With advertising rates going up and the necessity of “dealing with the gender-gap issue,” they could easily spend more than $300 million.

Barbour made the final pitch. “You all give so unbelievably generously. But you know what, I don’t have any compunction about looking you in the eye and asking for more,” he said. He compared the importance of a donation to American Crossroads in this cycle to donations made to “the charity hospital” or a “big not-for-profit cancer research program that you give to.”

Yes, he said that. He told these assholes to think of buying an election as a donation to a “big-not-for-profit” cancer research program. They are that twisted.

I don’t know if they can pull this off. The strategy he described is one that requires them to convince former Obama voters who are disappointed to vote for the Republican by saying nice things about Obama. The problem is that they can’t escape themselves. After all, it’s impossible to hide the fact that they are a group of contemptuous aristocrats vomiting massive sums of money into the political system at a time of economic suffering who cannot restrain their blood-thirsty, slavering base of Obama haters.

Good luck with the strategy though.No matter what happens, I’m sure Rove and his cronies are getting rich. And isn’t that really what makes the world go around?

.

The base loved the old man yells at cloud routine, by @DavidOAtkins

The base loved the old man yells at cloud routine

by David Atkins

By now most political junkies are aware of Clint Eastwood’s bizarre, rambling RNC speech last night. If you didn’t see it, it must be watched to be believed:

Yes, that is Clint Eastwood incoherently dressing down President Obama in an empty chair, attacking him for not closing Gitmo, and praising him for opposing invading Iraq, but attacking him for supporting being in Afghanistan. Yes, at a Republican convention.

Personally, I feel little more than sadness at the spectacle. Sadness at the mouthbreathing racists who cheered at the line “We own this country!” Sadness at the declining faculties of an American screen legend. Sadness at the way Mr. Eastwood was allowed to embarrass himself to a national audience by a bunch of Republican operatives who took a gamble and clearly screwed up without vetting the speech.

As an introduction to Mr. Romney for undecided middle-of-the-road voters it was a disaster that totally distracted from the candidate’s big rollout. But for the older, almost entirely white and predominantly base that Romney is also trying to gin up, the speech was a big hit. Really. If there’s any doubt, look no further than the always reliable Republican base thermometer Free Republic.

SAR knows what this election is about for the Republican base:

I wept. “We” own this country. Anglo saxon Patriots OWN this country. If you disagree, I hope you like the taste of steel.

Yep. That’s the Republican heart and soul for you.

Smoothsailing writes:

Well I sure liked it. Eastwood ad-libbed for ten minutes, no script, no notes, no teleprompter. What is he now, 80?

NeverForgetBataan replies:

I liked it too.

I flipped over to PMSNBC and Rachel Madcow looked like she had been kicked in her testicles.

She was gagging and frothing at the mouth. Hehe..

Lots of Freepers just loved that “joke.” So funny!

There were a lot of references to the comedic stylings of Jimmy Stewart (no spring chickens, the GOP base.) AaroninCarolina says:

He reminded me of Jimmy Stewart when he did comedy (if you’re old enough to remember him). Especially the way he stammered for comedic effect.

I don’t think that was comedic effect. OriginalBuckeye thinks the media is weird for reacting to the speech the way a normal person would:

I thought he was terrific. He still has a twinkle in his eye. Unfortunately I had on NBC because the audio wasn’t working on FoxNews. Angria Mitchell was weird. She pronounced the speech ‘strange. He was talking to an empty chair?’. I find her strange. I suspect most people who were watching NBC know their bias. I turned it off immediately and went to another TV where the audio on FoxNews was working.

NKP_Vet agrees:

Eastwood was great. He’s 82 years old now and that is exactly how he talks now. To hell with anyone that makes fun of him.

SarahBarracuda loved it almost as much as s/he loves the Queen of Wasilla:

For an 82 year old man he looked damn good. I enjoyed his speech, he’s not a politician, he didn’t go looking at a teleprompter to tell him what to say, he spoke from the heart, and cracked some jokes, it was entertaining, and he also made a lot of valid points. I hope I look that good at 82 years young.

bscso thinks it’s a generational gap. He may actually be right:

Let me tell you something. I’m a member of a seniors organization. I’m one of the youngest at almost 69 (on Sept. 13). I can’t count how many of us are “off” (by your standards) when we speak, but what we say can be taken to the bank. You don’t want to listen, fine. But we have a lot to say, and Eastwood said a lot tonight. You simply have to have an adult ear to listen.

A few freepers were nervous, but most thought Eastwood did a great job.

I strongly suspect most of the Republican base would agree. We do live in very different worlds, them and us, and all the bipartisan fetishist handwringing in the world won’t change that.

.

Sir Marco of Florida makes his pitch

Sir Marco of Florida

by digby

Shorter Rubio — up is down:

Now millions of Americans are insecure about their future. But instead of inspiring us by reminding us of what makes us special, he divides us against each other.

He tells Americans they’re worse off because others are better off. That people got rich by making others poor.

Hope and Change has become Divide and Conquer.

No matter how you feel about President Obama, this election is about your future, not his. And it’s not simply a choice between a democrat and a republican.

It’s a choice about what kind of country we want America to be.

We should remember what made us special. For most of history almost everyone was poor. Power and wealth belonged to only a few.

Your rights were whatever your rulers allowed you to have. Your future was determined by your past.

If your parents were poor, so would you be. If you were born without opportunities, so were your children.

And they’d like to make sure those traditions are honored and continued.

The sad truth is that Obama was sort of set up for this critique by his own hype. When you present yourself as the great healer who will bring everyone together, all it takes for the other side to call you a failure is to refuse to do it.

Still, this current crop of post-truth Republicans are really pushing the envelope. After all, are running a dynasty politician who traded on his famous name to make gazillions and then run for president. A man who’s backed by even wealthier scions who’ve parlayed their own inherited fortunes into a bottomeless pit of money while the rest of the nation suffers. It doesn’t exactly prove that the old aristocracy is coming back, but the signs aren’t good.

.

Another asshole starts on third base, thinks she earned it, by @DavidOAtkins

Another asshole starts on third base, thinks she earned it

David Atkins

How many times does this have to happen before sociologists and psychologists actually do some studies on what is going on in these people’s brains?

The richest woman in the world has a message for all you normals out there: Becoming rich is as easy as putting down that beer and getting off your ass.

Australian billionaire Gina Rinehart wrote that there is “no monopoly on becoming a millionaire,” in a column in Australian Resources Magazine, according to the AFP.

“If you’re jealous of those with more money, don’t just sit there and complain,” Rinehart wrote. “Do something to make more money yourself — spend less time drinking or smoking and socialising, and more time working.”

Rinehart has a point, working hard is one way to make a lot of money. Another way is to inherit a boatload of it and turn that wealth into more wealth. Rinehart may be more familiar with the second route. When her father died in 1992, he left the mining mogul $75 million and, yes, she multiplied that sum by 386 over the past 20 years, according to AOL Daily Finance.

It’s true that probably happened because Rinehart worked hard. But in the race to become super-rich, it always helps to have a head start. Nearly 70 percent of the sons of top-earning men have worked at their dad’s employer, compared to just 40 percent of sons overall, a recent study found.

Rinehart’s comments set off a firestorm in Australia, where she holds the title of richest person. The country’s Treasurer slammed her column, saying it was “an insult to the millions of Australian workers who go to work and slog it out to feed the kids and pay the bills,” according to the Sydney Morning Herald.

No kidding. Actually, far from spending less time drinking and socializing, the easiest and fastest way to become a millionaire isn’t to work harder. It’s to drink and schmooze with the right crowd.

The notion that rich people automatically work harder is preposterous. I’m a small business owner who hires various subcontractors, and I know a lot of very hardworking, very smart people who simply cannot find work. I also know a lot of lazy, not-so-bright people who make quite a bit of money mostly through luck and being in the right place at the right time.

I think we all know lots of people in both categories, and it has little to do with profligacy or prudence. I’m prudent, but I also knew that “there but for the grace of God go I,” and that bad luck could befall me at any time. I also know that my success as a business owner depends on a strong, educated middle class–not whether some random dot-com billionaire or house flipper who got out just in time can afford 10 more ferraris or not.

This stuff is obvious. And, of course, in our society that taxes investment at a much lower rate than work, it’s the first $1,000,000 that’s the hardest to earn. From there it only gets easier.

And if a person is at all prudent and halfway intelligent, it’s fairly easy to take a $75 million inheritance and turn it into a lot more. People with money actually know this. Many of them have the appropriate guilt about their good fortune to have a well-developed sense of noblesse oblige. But it’s also clear that a great many of them have no such thing.

So the only question remains: what is going on in these people’s heads? Are they blithely clueless fools who really don’t believe that other people work hard for a living? Are they literal sociopaths who know better but don’t care? Is it that our meritocracy provides them an easy justification for selfishness, and they never ask themselves any serious questions about it? What the hell is wrong with these people?

.

Clint Eastwood: “don’t give me that sanctity crap!”

Eastwood: “don’t give me that sanctity crap!”

by digby

Hey all you journalists who are dying to get an interview with Clint Eastwood tonight, ask him about this:

GQ: [To Eastwood] You’ve described yourself as a social libertarian. What does that mean to you?

Clint Eastwood: I was an Eisenhower Republican when I started out at 21, because he promised to get us out of the Korean War. And over the years, I realized there was a Republican philosophy that I liked. And then they lost it. And libertarians had more of it.

Because what I really believe is, let’s spend a little more time leaving everybody alone. These people who are making a big deal out of gay marriage? I don’t give a f–k about who wants to get married to anybody else! Why not?! We’re making a big deal out of things we shouldn’t be making a deal out of.

Leonardo Dicaprio: That’s the most infuriating thing—watching people focus on these things. Meanwhile, there’s the onset of global warming and—

Clint Eastwood: Exactly!

Leonardo Dicaprio: —and these incredibly scary and menacing things with the future of our economy. Our relationship to the rest of the world. And here we are focusing on this?

Clint Eastwood: They go on and on with all this bulls–t about “sanctity”—don’t give me that sanctity crap! Just give everybody the chance to have the life they want.

If he’s unavailable, why don’t you ask some of the delegates about that. I think it would be very interesting to hear what they have to say.

.