Month: November 2012

QOTD: Brit Hume

by digby

“I think the conventional wisdom is trending now towards a Obama win, something along the lines of what Karl Rove and his team pulled off for President Bush in 2004, but I’m by no means certain. And there’s this striking discrepancy between national polls — which tend to be done, by and large, by older, more-seasoned polling firms — and state polls — a number of which are done by less-established firms. The national polls have this a tie. The state polls, as you just suggested — the battleground state polls suggest and indicate that President Obama is ahead in all of them.”

“It seems striking that there would be this difference,” he added. “And it is sobering, if you’re a Romney supporter, to think that he is trailing or just tied in so many of those states.”

“I think it’s unlikely — it’s hard to imagine as a political journalist that all these many polls are off. But the discrepancy is unmistakable and puzzling.”

Only to people who live in Roger Ailes’ alternate universe. To everyone else, it’s perfectly understandable.

I would have thought Brit Hume knew better, but I’ve overestimated pundit knowledge before.

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Whatever it takes

by digby

If you can’t make early voting illegal, there’s always a way to slow it down:

Authorities in Winter Park, Fla. have detonated a second suspicius package found near an early voting site on Saturday, a spokersperson for the Winter Park Public Library confirmed to TPM.

“They detonated it 15 minutes ago,” Mary Gail Coffee said. “No update on what it was.”

The lead poll worker at the site called police around noon on Saturday after an unattended lunch box of some kind was found near the polling site. Law enforcement officials brought police dogs and a robot capable of taking x-rays to the scene, but were unable to determine the contents of the first package, so they destroyed it in a controlled detonation. It is unclear where the second package was found. The library has been evacuated, and voting at the site suspended.

This doesn’t specify if they turned out to be bombs or just “suspicious packages” or if they were planted there on purpose. If they were I’d say their work is done.

And to think Republicans are screaming bloody murder at the idea that we might need international observers of our broken election system. The fact that anyone would even suspect that bombs might be planted at election sites in the United States in 2012 says it all.

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Well, Shoot Me In The Face 

by tristero

Here’s an enticing reason to vote Republican:

Representative Paul D. Ryan may have largely disappeared from the national spotlight down the campaign homestretch, ceding attention to Mitt Romney. But if the Republican ticket prevails, Mr. Ryan plans to come back roaring, establishing an activist vice presidency that he said would look like Dick Cheney’s under President George W. Bush.

The mind boggles.

The mean-spirited ignorant incoherence of the anti-climate Right

by David Atkins

Not content with yet another climate-change-related drowning of an American city after joking about rising seas, Romney surrogate Artur Davis wants America to know that he has contempt not only for those concerned about climate change, but also for logic itself: Check the video:

WEST CHESTER, Ohio — Most of the top surrogates for Mitt Romney who appeared at a massive rally Friday night expressed compassion for the victims of Hurricane Sandy and urged the crowd to keep them in thoughts and prayers.

There was one exception: former Alabama congressman Artur Davis, a former Democrat and former Obama supporter, who joked about rising sea levels.

“Now four years ago, ladies and gentlemen, the president sounded so good. Remember the rise of the oceans, which began to slow, the planet would began to heal,” Davis said. “Now I don’t know about the oceans; ask Mayor Bloomberg and Al Gore about that.”

This is more than just callousness of the highest order. It’s an affront to decency and logic even for climate deniers.

Davis’ tortured “logic” appears to be that Barack Obama promised to heal the climate and prevent the rise of the oceans, but failed to do that, resulting in an oceanic surge over New York City. This, even as the right attacks the President for being insufficiently in favor of burning more coal and oil.

Davis would like the country to ask Mayor Bloomberg how he feels about Obama’s promise to heal the planet, even though Mayor Bloomberg just endorsed the President based partly on his stance on climate change, insufficient as it may be. The nation did ask Mayor Bloomberg, and the Mayor responded by making climate a key rationale for opposing Mr. Davis’ favored candidate.

Finally, in the same sentence he brings up favorite target Al Gore, apparently in an attempt to mock the very existence of man-made climate change.

So in short, Obama is stupid and unserious because he promised to stop the rise in the oceans that isn’t happening because Al Gore is fat. But Obama is also weak and incapable because he didn’t stop the rise in the oceans that isn’t happening–but actually is happening because New York is drowning. Mayor Bloomberg can point to Obama’s lack of success in this area, of course, since he endorsed him.

But if none of that makes sense, that’s because it doesn’t need to. It doesn’t need to any more than Mitt Romney’s tax “plan”, or calling the President a Muslim Atheist. As long as a variety of visceral grievances and prejudices are strung together as an ad-lib, it works for the conservative mind.

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Saturday Night at the Movies




All about (election) eve

 By Dennis Hartley

If you’re like me (and isn’t everybody?) you’ve either mailed your ballot already or made up your mind, so you’ve just about had it up to “here” with the endless campaign ads and the polling and ever-escalating gnashing of teeth. However, being a glutton for punishment (and applying the inoculation theory), I’ve found that one of the best therapies for getting through the final several days of pins and needles before Election Tuesday is to dust off a few of my favorite election-themed movies and give them a spin.

For movies that delve into the art of the campaign, I’d be partial to screening The Candidate, Primary Colors, or the brilliant doc, The War Room . For the “election flick as paranoid political thriller”, how about The Contender or the original 1962 version of  The Manchurian Candidate?(From the latter film, Sinatra’s classic line “Doc, that was one swinger of a nightmare!” kind of summarizes campaign 2012 for me). If you’re in the mood for biting election satire, it doesn’t get any better than Great Mcginty , The Best Man, Bob Roberts, Wag the Dog, Bulworth, or Robert Altman’s cable mini-series, Tanner ’88  For sly political allegory, Election definitely tops my list. And although it has a more tangential election theme (election night 1968 serves as a backdrop for a substantial portion of the film) any excuse to revisit Hal Ashby’s Shampoo gets my vote.

Strangely enough, I think my all-time favorite election night film is one that has nothing to do with American politics: Don’s Party, a worthwhile sleeper from Australia. Breaker Morant director Bruce Beresford folds in one part Shampoo, one part Return of the Secaucus 7 and sprinkles liberally with Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? The story is set on Australia’s election night, 1969. Our outgoing host Don and his uptight wife are hosting an “election party” for old college chums at their solidly middle-class suburban home. Most of the party guests range from the recently divorced to the unhappily married. Ostensibly gathering to watch election results, talk politics and socialize, Don’s party deteriorates into a veritable primer on bad human behavior as the booze kicks in. By the end of the night, marriages are on the rocks, friendships nearly broken and guests are skinny dipping in the vacationing neighbor’s pool. Yet, this is not just another wacky party film. It offers keen observations about mid-life crisis, elitism, politics, and adult relationships along the way. It’s savagely funny, brilliantly written and splendidly acted.

Previous posts with related themes:
Grassroots 
The Ides of March/The Politician’s Wife 
Swing Vote 
W 
Frost/Nixon 

Saturday Night at the Movies archives 

Yes Virginia, there is a war on women

by digby

Kaili Joy Gray at Daily Kos has been covering the war on women in this cycle better than anyone. And she put together a barn-burner for her last weekly dispatch before the election.

I think this part is especially important to remember:

[E]ven for those of us who are well-versed in the war waged on women since long before 2011, the Republicans’ full-blown assault was far worse than we could have imagined. The following is but a sample of the 67 abortion bills introduced this session:

H.R. 212: Sanctity of Human Life Act: “To provide that human life shall be deemed to begin with fertilization.”

H.R. 1096: Sanctity of Life Act of 2011: “To provide that human life shall be deemed to exist from conception, and for other purposes.”

S. 91: Life at Conception Act: “A bill to implement equal protection under the 14th article of amendment to the Constitution for the right to life of each born and unborn human person.”

H.R. 374: Life at Conception Act: “To implement equal protection under the 14th article of amendment to the Constitution for the right to life of each born and preborn human person.”

S. 314: Unborn Child Pain Awareness Act of 2011: “A bill to ensure that women seeking an abortion are fully informed regarding the pain experienced by their unborn child.”

S. 2103: District of Columbia Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act: “A bill to amend title 18, United States Code, to protect pain-capable unborn children in the District of Columbia, and for other purposes.”

H.R. 3805: Ultrasound Informed Consent Act: “To ensure that women seeking an abortion receive an ultrasound and the opportunity to review the ultrasound before giving informed consent to receive an abortion.”

H.R. 3130: Heartbeat Informed Consent Act: “To ensure that women seeking an abortion receive an ultrasound and an opportunity to review the ultrasound before giving informed consent to receive an abortion.”

H.R. 3802: National Pro-Life Waiting Period Act of 2012: “To require an abortion provider, before performing an abortion, to wait for a period of at least 24 hours.”

S. 3290: Prenatal Nondiscrimination Act (PRENDA) of 2012: “A bill to prohibit discrimination against the unborn on the basis of sex or gender, and for other purposes.”

H.R. 5646: Homeland Security Respect for Life Act: “To prohibit funds appropriated for the Department of Homeland Security from being used to pay for an abortion, and for other purposes.”

H.R. 6173: PRO-LIFE Act: “To amend the General Education Provisions Act to prohibit Federal education funding for elementary schools and secondary schools that provide on-campus access to abortion providers.”

H.R. 3: No Taxpayer Funding for Abortion Act: “To prohibit taxpayer funded abortions and to provide for conscience protections, and for other purposes.”

It wasn’t just an assault on reproductive rights, though. Oh, no. They also fought against the Paycheck Fairness Act, because while Republicans will give lip service to the idea of equal pay, they don’t really support it. Mitt Romney has said, during this election season, that women’s real concern is having more flex time so they can rush home to cook dinner for their families. Equal pay? Nah.

Republicans fought against renewal of the Violence Against Women Act too. Why? Because they don’t believe violence against immigrants, lesbians and Native American women is a problem. Those women don’t deserve protection, according to Republicans. As with their shifting definitions of rape, some victims of domestic violence aren’t really victims, so screw ’em.

And let’s not even get started on the conversation about rape—forcible rape, legitimate rape, easy rape, honest rape, emergency rape, rape thing rape, gift-from-God rape. Who knows what kind of some-rape-is-not-really-that-bad rape they’ll think up next?

And friends, that’s just at the federal level. If you don’t think women are right to be a tad concerned about this in the immediate now then you are not paying attention.

I’m hard pressed to think of any other time in American history in which long settled rights, freedoms and social norms for a particular group of people have been systematically attacked and rolled back. (I can think of a few in world history and it didn’t end well.) These throwbacks are for real and they represent half the damned country.

I suppose that some of those who were lucky enough to be born with the proper dangley bits naturally feel comfortable giving lectures about how this isn’t as important as other things. But you’ll have to forgive those of without those dangley bits for taking this whole thing a little bit personally.

Blue America endorsed a number of great women this cycle. Coming into the final stretch we have five excellent women House candidates and two great women Senate candidates if you’d care to give them one last financial bump or can volunteer to help them GOTV on Tuesday:

Patsy Keever, Ann McLane Kuster, Carol Shea Porter, Aryanna Strader and Sue Thorn for the House. Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for the Senate.

In fact, all of the candidates on both of those pages are dedicated feminists who stand up for the rights of women. We’re going to need all of them we can get.

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ICYMI: Rick Perry celebrates a major milestone

by digby

A big day the governor:

Texan authorities on Wednesday executed 41-year-old Donnie Roberts, convicted of murdering his girlfriend in 2003, by giving a lethal injection.

It was the 250th execution carried out in the U.S. state of Texas under the rule of Governor Rick Perry, and the first Halloween execution since death penalty was reinstated.

In less than a dozen years, Texas has executed more than twice as many prisoners than any other U.S. state has executed in three-and-a-half decades.

There are many leaders who can be held responsible for more deaths, usually in war. But it’s a rare one who can claim to have personally signed the death warrants of 250 people and seen them executed. I don’t know who hold the record of prisoners put to death in America but I’ve got to guess that Rick Perry is right up there.

But don’t worry. Even if you aren’t squeamish about the state rather randomly killing people in large numbers in order to send a message that killing people is wrong, the good news is that our legal system is so airtight, so incorruptible and just that it is impossible for any mistakes to ever be made. So at least there’s that.

Congratulations to Governor Rick Perry. I know you are a very big time Christian. I hope for your sake you haven’t misread what Jesus thought about murder because if you did you are in for a big surprise on Judgment Day.

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Saved by the Invisible Hand

by digby

John Stossel proves once again that he’s lives in a libertarian utopia only inhabited by arrogant teenagers and celebrity millionaires:

Christie would help more if he could suspend New Jersey’s foolish law forbidding price increases of more than 10% during an “emergency,” and if he’d apologize for bragging that the state will crack down on price “gouging!

What politicians call “gouging” is just the free market. When markets are allowed to work their magic, lines disappear… If gas stations could raise prices, many of those drivers would wait, and drive less. Drivers who really need gas would be able to get it. At the same time, entrepreneurs would rush gasoline to gas stations that have the highest prices. The lines would quickly vanish, and prices would come back down.

And the drivers who really “need” gas (not sure who it is that doesn’t, but apparently there are a lot of them) will just happen to be those who are flush with cash and can afford the stupid high prices. And hey, if a few people have to lose their jobs, go without food, are unable to get to a hospital or evacuate due to the lack of money, well they should have thought of that before they decided not to get rich. You’ve gotta take responsibility for your bad choices in life.

Seriously, this worship of markets is just as faith based as any other religion. And just like all the others it features an invisible Deity directing traffic from somewhere else. I’m not much of a believer in any of them but if I had to choose I’d pick one of the ones that doesn’t require the human sacrifices.

Also too: this.

Elizabeth the stalwart

by digby

I had the privilege of hosting a Blue America chat with Warren earlier this year and have met her a couple of times in person. Believe me, she’s got the shining.

As I wrote about this in my introduction to the chat:

That viral Youtube may be the most famous American cri de coeur of the new century — a shot heard round the political world announcing that Elizabeth Warren was not just running for the Senate in Massachusetts, but that she was going to do it by redefining the political framework that’s governed this nation for the past 30 years. Warren’s message put fear in the hearts of the big money boyz and the political establishment and they reacted. Strongly. This is not a person they want in the Senate and they are going to do whatever they can to ensure she isn’t elected.

It’s looking good, but it’s still close. If you live in Massachusetts and can donate some time to helping her win, I doubt you will regret it.

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Keep this in the back of your mind

by digby

You don’t need to think about this today. But you should bookmark it because you’re going to need it on Wednesday morning. The word is that the next Grand Bargain proposal is going to drop immediately after the election:

Today, the budget deficit is not “out of control”, and the “fiscal cliff” is not a cliff.

Thursday, November 1, 2012

In today’s edition, economist Dean Baker, Co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Priorities, on deficit confusion and why “fiscal cliff” is a misleading description of the economic forecast:

1. The budget deficit is not “out of control”.

There is enormous confusion about the nature of the country’s deficit problem. There is a widespread belief that there has been a longstanding problem with large budget deficits.This is simply not true. It is easy to show that the large deficits of recent years are a result of the downturn in the economy following the collapse of the housing bubble.

The budget deficit in 2007 was just 1.2 percent of GDP.

In January of 2008, before it recognized the impact of the collapse of the housing bubble on the economy, the Congressional Budget Office projected that the deficit would remain near 1.0 percent of GDP through 2011.

The deficit was projected to turn to a surplus in 2012 after the expiration of the Bush tax cuts.

The country could run deficits of this size literally forever. The debt to GDP ratio was actually declining.

This situation changed in 2008 because of the downturn caused by the collapse of the housing bubble.

This led to a sharp fall in revenue as taxes fell in response to the fall in output and employment.

It also led to an increase in expenditures for items like unemployment insurance and food stamps.

In addition, there were tax cuts and spending measures taken to directly counteract the downturn, such as the payroll tax cut and the stimulus package.

The combination of automatic stabilizers and deliberate stimulus measures fully explain the large deficits of the last four years.

There were few permanent changes to spending or the tax code that would add to the deficit on an ongoing basis.

If the unemployment rate were to return to the pre-recession level of 4.5 percent and we eliminated the tax and spending measures designed to sustain the economy through the downturn, we would again have modest deficits of a size that could be sustained indefinitely.

2. The “fiscal cliff” is not a cliff at all.

The term “fiscal cliff” and the discussion around this impasse have fundamentally misrepresented the problem facing the budget and the economy. While there have been projections from the Congressional Budget Office and others showing that the tax increases and spending cuts scheduled to go into effect on January 1, 2013 can push the economy back into recession, these projections are showing the impact of failing to reach an agreement by the end of 2013.

The projections assume not only that no deal is reached by January 1, but also that no deal is reached over the course of the year. In other words, we would not be subject to a higher tax rate for a few weeks or a month, these models examined what would happen if we paid taxes at higher rate for a full year and also saw spending cut for the whole year.

As a practical matter, if the end of the year deadline is not met it only means that people will be subject to higher withholding beginning on January 1, 2103. No one would feel anything until they saw their first paycheck of 2013.

Furthermore, if Congress and the president seemed about to reach a deal, which would eliminate much of the tax increase, then most people would be able to anticipate getting back the extra taxes in their next paycheck. In this case, the impact on spending and the economy would be minimal.

There is even less cause to be concerned about the spending side of the cliff.
The sequester applies to appropriations, not actual outlays. Some of the money appropriated in 2013 may not be spent for years into the future.

As a practical matter, there is no reason for the government to do anything to curb spending in January if it appears that a deal is likely to be reached that would lead to levels of spending that are higher than provided for in the sequester.
This means that if Congress and the president take a month or two to work through an alternative to the sequester, the pace of spending need not be affected.

As a practical matter, it is always desirable to reduce unnecessary uncertainty and the resolution of the tax and spending debate creates certainty. But there is no reality to the idea that the end of the year presents a deadline of any consequence. It really doesn’t matter whether a deal is reached on December 28th or January 8th, the impact on the economy will be almost exactly the same.

And remember, no law made by the congress in the past(like the sequester) can’t be unmade now. These are not acts of God, they are deals struck by politicians. They can make a new one any time.

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