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Month: January 2013

Chris Hayes explains the platinum coin gambit

Chris Hayes explains the platinum coin gambit

by digby

Keep in mind that the debt ceiling vote is a silly gambit as well. The congress appropriates the money for government programs and the president signs the bill. Then they come back and say now we refuse to pay for the programs we appropriated the money for. It’s nuts, one of those stupid gimmicks the Republicans came up with so they could pretend to be strict fiscal stewards even as they brought home the bacon.

The president should mint the coin and tell the congress that he’ll give it up only if they give up the debt ceiling.

I’m not holding my breath.

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Shared sacrifice?

Shared sacrifice?

by digby

While our leaders are preparing to cut the measly monthly allotment for food for people who are too old to work, we get this little piece of information:

According to the Bloomberg News Billionaires Index, “The richest people on the planet got even richer in 2012, adding $241 billion to their collective net worth.” The 100 richest individuals in the world are worth nearly $2 trillion collectively. As of 2011, millionaires and billionaires controlled nearly 40 percent of the world’s wealth.

Just to put that in perspective:

Changing the inflation measure to what is called chained CPI would save $225 billion over the next decade. 

I hate to be hyperbolic, but this is rapidly becoming a “pitchfork” situation. I don’t think it will end well.

FYI:

Charles and David Koch, are each worth $40.9 billion, up 20.9 percent — $7.1 billion — for the year.

Somehow, I don’t think the tip money they threw into the US election hurt them any.

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Sacrificing humans on the (Jonathan) Alter of “rational” centrism

Sacrificing humans on the (Jonathan) Alter of “rational” centrism

by digby

So Jonathan Alter is once again scolding the liberals for failing to endorse the conservative agenda. He writes:

The president already has his hands full dealing with angry and unrealistic Republicans. Now he’s getting reacquainted with their counterparts on the left — a less ideologically inflexible bunch but not necessarily any more susceptible to reason…

Before the campaign, liberals were hardly hesitant to express their disappointment with the president. Recall the liberal unrest of 2009 when Obama, bowing to congressional pressure, failed to close the prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and neglected to support a public option in the Affordable Care Act.

Liberals crying “kill the bill” came dangerously close to derailing landmark health-care reform for which they had been fighting since the Progressive “Bull Moose” Party Convention of 1912. Obama rightly complained in response that too many of his supporters were letting “the perfect be the enemy of the good.”

Now we’re about to see such imperfection under assault again. While Obama won strong Democratic backing for the so- called fiscal-cliff deal in both the Senate and the House, a chorus of liberal critics rose up to condemn his compromises.

They were particularly incensed that he agreed to raise the threshold on income subject to a higher tax rate from his oft- stated preference of $250,000 per family to $450,000 per family. Some news stories reported that Obama broke a campaign promise by abandoning the $250,000 level.

A few liberals even complained that Obama violated his principles by compromising. They must not have listened to him all year. One of his most important — and most frequently stated — principles is that compromise is essential to governing.
Having said that “not everybody gets a hundred percent of what they want” from negotiations, Obama surely would have doomed these and future negotiations by clinging to every jot and title of his opening offer

That’s interesting, don’t you think? According to Alter, the president’s first principle is to compromise. So when he makes a promise, it’s really just an opening bid. I think we knew that, but I haven’t see it expressed so starkly before and with such fawning admiration.

But the good news is that while the liberals are once again ruining everything, the stolid Republicans are back in the Village’s good graces, due to their “pragmatism” in allowing a vote to come to the floor:

Perhaps Republicans, too, have now been forced to take the plunge into pragmatism. One achievement of the fiscal-cliff deal was that it violated the “Hastert Rule,” named for former House Speaker Dennis Hastert, that required “a majority of the majority” Republican caucus to proceed on legislation. Instead, Republicans split on the vote and the bill passed with Democratic support.

They did their part like the good citizens they are, in “allowing” taxes for the very richest among us to rise to the onerous levels they were just a decade ago. Now the hippies had better get their act together and “allow” the old, the sick and the vulnerable to suffer. That’s what we call compromise in the Village:

Just as Republicans must learn to live with tax increases, Democrats must learn to live with — and vote for — changes in entitlements. They should keep in mind that reforms such as a chained consumer price index, which alters the inflation calculation applied to Social Security, and means testing the benefits of wealthy retirees, do not threaten the social safety net…

If liberals are disappointed in Obama’s fiscal-cliff deal, imagine how they will feel in late February when he starts making tough choices on spending cuts. Liberals need to think harder about what their own long-term deficit reduction plan would be. Raising more revenue is necessary. It’s not sufficient.

Can you hear the glee in his voice when he says “imagine how they will feel when Obama starts making tough choices on spending cuts.” Obviously, he’s getting in shape for some old-fashioned hippie punching.

But as with most Villagers he’s uninformed. Liberals have many plans out there, starting with this one. And then there’s this one. And many liberals favor major cuts to defense and the bloated, unaccountable Homeland Security Apparatus rather than the phony penny ante trims to those programs favored by politicians. Others subscribe to the odd notion that since Social Security has no effect on the deficit numbers it’s ridiculous for it to be part of the discussion at all. Still more believe that the problem is a lack of growth exacerbated by austerity measures that are counterproductive. Virtually everyone agrees that the major contributor to the deficit in the future is health care costs which will be made even worse by throwing people off of Medicare which, despite its flaws, is the most efficient health care program in the country.

And then there are those crazy nuts who think that our still ridiculously high unemployment is contributing to the fact that the government deficit is high. That doesn’t include Jonathan Alter, of course, who says that Americans should suck it up and accept he fact that we will have painfully high unemployment (and obviously, lower growth) forever:

CHRIS HAYES: Yes. That‘s exactly the point. I mean, I feel like I agree obviously. I mean, when you look at that job, that sort of famous job chart that shows, you know, the Bush administration, the Obama administration, you know, we clearly, the bleeding has been stopped, the patient is under hemorrhaging.

But I feel like, what‘s happening is there is a kind of normalization that‘s going around, sort of very subtly rhetorically on both sides and this comes to the White House I think, as well that we‘re going to just have to kind of accustom ourselves to levels of unemployment that in a historical perspective or totally, totally anomalies and unacceptable.

JONATHAN ALTER: Well, you know, they‘re right. We are going to have to accustom ourselves to some higher than, you know, old normal percentage of unemployment. You know, I don‘t know whether it‘s seven percent, six percent, whatever. We could have an argument about that. But clearly 9.7 percent is not tolerable.

Big of him to admit that nearly 10% official unemployment was a bad thing. But he’s clearly accepting of the fact that we will have unemployment at levels previously considered catastrophic going forward. Why? I can’t tell you and I’ll bet neither can he.

I think we can seethe pattern here, however, can’t you? Whatever liberals are upset about, even high unemployment, is something that Alter inevitably rejects for a more “even-handed” approach. (Or should I say, “balanced”?)

Anyway, he’s going to have some fun being the reasonable Villager over the next few months because liberals are going to war over these programs and there’s nothing he can do about it.

Oh, and by the way, in case you forgot, Alter, who laughably identifies himself as a liberal, showed his truest of true colors when he wrote this:

In this autumn of anger, even a liberal can find his thoughts turning to… torture. OK, not cattle prods or rubber hoses, at least not here in the United States, but something to jump-start the stalled investigation of the greatest crime in American history. Right now, four key hijacking suspects aren’t talking at all.

Couldn’t we at least subject them to psychological torture, like tapes of dying rabbits or high-decibel rap? (The military has done that in Panama and elsewhere.) How about truth serum, administered with a mandatory IV? Or deportation to Saudi Arabia, land of beheadings? (As the frustrated FBI has been threatening.) Some people still argue that we needn’t rethink any of our old assumptions about law enforcement, but they’re hopelessly “Sept. 10”–living in a country that no longer exists…

We can’t legalize physical torture; it’s contrary to American values. But even as we continue to speak out against human-rights abuses around the world, we need to keep an open mind about certain measures to fight terrorism, like court-sanctioned psychological interrogation. And we’ll have to think about transferring some suspects to our less squeamish allies, even if that’s hypocritical. Nobody said this was going to be pretty.

That’s what passes for proper liberalism in the Village. So any expectation that the liberal punditocrisy will rally to protect vital programs is undoubtedly misplaced.

Update: Oy. Here’s Chris Hayes having to explain to Megan McArdle (and everyone else) something that’s quite elementary: it’s stupid to be concentrating right now on future deficits when we know the real problem is rising health care costs, both private and government. And we have a new health care plan which is supposed to curb much of the costs but it isn’t on line yet. Maybe we could wait to see if it works first?

Sadly, I see that even the president’s signature issue isn’t something he’s going to protect:

The fiscal cliff cuts $1.9 billion from Obamacare

I would have thought that, at least, would be sacred.

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Hope for filibuster reform, by @DavidOAtkins

Hope for filibuster reform

by David Atkins

Some great news via HuffPo:

The Senate postponed debate on reforming the filibuster Thursday, as advocates cited the support of 48 senators for eliminating the silent filibuster using the so-called constitutional option, a measure that requires 50 votes plus that of the vice president.

During a briefing on Capitol Hill, Sens. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) and Tom Udall (D-N.M.) updated reporters on their joint effort, which is also being shepherded by Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa).

The remaining seven within the Democratic caucus who have yet to sign on are Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.), Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.), Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.). Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.), Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) and Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), a source familiar with the whip count told The Huffington Post.

A coalition of progressive groups is also keeping up the pressure for reform, such as advocacy group CREDO Action, which targeted wavering senators Wednesday.

Despite some opposition, Udall was confident about the proposal’s prospects, telling reporters it has “Big Mo,” referencing his uncle, Mo Udall, a former, longtime Arizona congressman. Udall said he anticipates having enough Democratic votes to pass reform using what advocates call the constitutional option, but what opponents refer to as the “nuclear option.”

“I believe we have 51 votes to utilize the constitution and go forward with rules change,” Udall said, implying that enough of the remaining seven would swing their way to push them over the top. If the chamber was deadlocked at 50-50, Vice President Joe Biden, who supports filibuster reform, would break the tie.

This needs to happen pronto. It may be the most important vote the Senate takes in the 113th Congress.

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Remember the ladies

Remember the ladies

by digby

There’s a little bit more estrogen today in the US Senate, especially on the left side of aisle:

Baldwin, (also first openly gay Senator)

Warren, populist heroine:

Heitcamp and Hirono (also first Buddhist Senator):

I don’t know how they will fare, but it’s good to see them there. Women now make up a fifth of the Senate.-(Why, next thing you’ll know they’ll think they have a claim to half of it!)

*There is also a new Republican woman Senator, Deb Fischer from Nebraska. She’s a Tea Partier. Oh well.

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Let’s hope Ed Rendell doesn’t see Django Unchained. God only knows what lesson he’ll take.

Let’s hope Ed Rendell doesn’t see Django Unchained. God only knows what lesson he’ll take.

by digby

  From Bold Progressives:

ED RENDELL: Give the President credit, he said he would consider chained CPI, he said back in 2011 that he would raise the Medicare age, with carveouts. […] Those are things he’s going to have to deliver. […] He has to lead. And boy I’d love the whole Congress, this new Congress and the President, they should all go see a screening of Lincoln together, because Abraham Lincoln led on the 13th amendment when everybody on both sides told him he was crazy.

Yes, that’s what he said. He compared raising the medicare age and cutting social security to freeing the slaves.

Perhaps what was more interesting was what followed. Steve Kornacki actually challenged his conventional wisdom drivel and Rendell revealed he is completely clueless. He falls back on the braindead life expectancy trope, gets it wrong and then admits that we should have Medicare for all. Evidently he thinks it makes sense to cut the program even though we should be expanding it. This is what passes for “elder statesmen” these days. (The tip off that he’s talking nonsense was the fact that SE Cupp said that he was making sense to her.)

Here’s the reality about life expectancy:

General life expectancy, or life expectancy at birth, is mostly affected by early death. Whenever a child dies, it skews life expectancy from birth way down. Anything that increases infant mortality, or care that ends a potentially devastating childhood illness (think vaccines), will increase general life expectancy a lot. Therefore, many of the gains in overall life expectancy have nothing to do with how long an elderly person lives, but how well we do in treating childhood illnesses…
What we really should care about in this case is not life expectancy at birth, but life expectancy at age 65. In other words, if you make it to 65, how long will you be on Medicare? That’s when things get tricky.
In 1970, if you made it to 65 and qualified for Medicare, you could expect to live for about 15 years on the program. So a lot of people were making use of these programs, for a lot of years. In 1987, you could expect about 17 years on Medicare; by 2007, almost 19 years.
Yes, life expectancy is going up. But not nearly as fast for those on Medicare as people think. An additional problem is that it’s not going up equally. A new study just released by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation looks at changes in life expectancy from 1987-2007 by county. Here’s the most troubling part of it (emphasis mine):
Change in life expectancy is so uneven that within some states there is now a decade difference between the counties with the longest lives and those with the shortest. States such as Arizona, Florida, Virginia and Georgia have seen counties leap forward more than five years from 1987 to 2007 while nearby counties stagnate or even lose years of life expectancy.
In Arizona, Yuma County’s average life expectancy for men increased 8.5 years, nearly twice the national average, while neighboring La Paz County lost a full year of life expectancy, the steepest drop nationwide. Nationally, life expectancy increased 4.3 years for men and 2.4 years for women between 1987 and 2007.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise it may be that poorer people are not making nearly the gains in life expectancy that wealthier people are. If you look at the maps from those studies, this seems to be true. And it’s born out by another study that appeared in Social Security Bulletin in 2007. 

This is the life expectancy of a covered male Social Security worker who reached age 65 in 1977-2007. The blue line is the top 50% of earners; the red line is the bottom 50%. While earners in the top half have seen an increase of their life expectancy at 65 rise about five years over these three decades, the bottom half saw their life expectancy at 65 rise barely a year. 

This is what you should think about whenever someone talks about increasing the eligibility age for Medicare or Social Security. Not everyone’s life expectancy is increasing. Those who need the benefits the most would be the ones who stand to lose the biggest percentage of them by raising the eligibility age. Asking them to pay more out-of pocket doesn’t seem like a fair, nor workable, solution.

In other words, Ed Rendell doesn’t have a clue what he’s talking about.  He’s bandying about jargon like “carve outs” which applies to the (equally hideous) Chained-CPI argument and applying it Medicare where it makes no sense at all, since you can’t “carve out” 50% of workers and have it make any sense.  Clearly his “Fix the Debt” pals for got to give him his proper talking points about how Obamacare is going to cover everyone. (Well, except in those states where the Republican governors are rejecting the Medicaid expansion and who-knows-what will happen with the exchanges.)

This is a perfect example of the idiotic misinformation these deficit scolds hurl around all the time.  For the most part I think they are clever propagandists.  But in Rendell’s case, after watching that clip, I think it’s obvious that he simply doesn’t know what the hell he’s talking about.  And yet he’s all over TV explaining why we just have cut “entitlements.”

Grrr.

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We’re screwed through 2022, by @DavidOAtkins

We’re Screwed Through 2022

by David Atkins

Many of my friends on the left seem to be hanging their hats on the possibility of overwhelming negative public sentiment against Republicans winning Democrats back the House Majority in 2014. That is, after all, the basis of arguments (including those I myself have often made in the past) stating that Democrats should stand up taller for progressive priorities and dare Republicans to vote against them. The idea is that if Republicans don’t do what the people want and if Democrats point that out strongly enough, the people will turn those Republicans out of office.

About that:

Thanks To Gerrymandering, Democrats Would Need To Win The Popular Vote By Over 7 Percent To Take Back The House

As of this writing, every single state except Hawai’i has finalized its vote totals for the 2012 House elections, and Democrats currently lead Republicans by 1,362,351 votes in the overall popular vote total. Democratic House candidates earned 49.15 percent of the popular vote, while Republicans earned only 48.03 percent — meaning that the American people preferred a unified Democratic Congress over the divided Congress it actually got by more than a full percentage point. Nevertheless, thanks largely to partisan gerrymandering, Republicans have a solid House majority in the incoming 113th Congress…

A deeper dive into the vote totals reveals just how firmly gerrymandering entrenched Republican control of the House. If all House members are ranked in order from the Republican members who won by the widest margin down to the Democratic members who won by the widest margins, the 218th member on this list is Congressman-elect Robert Pittenger (R-NC). Thus, Pittenger was the “turning point” member of the incoming House. If every Republican who performed as well or worse than Pittenger had lost their race, Democrats would hold a one vote majority in the incoming House.

Pittenger won his race by more than six percentage points — 51.78 percent to 45.65 percent.

The upshot of this is that if Democrats across the country had performed six percentage points better than they actually did last November, they still would have barely missed capturing a majority in the House of Representatives. In order to take control of the House, Democrats would have needed to win the 2012 election by 7.25 percentage points. That’s significantly more than the Republican margin of victory in the 2010 GOP wave election (6.6 percent), and only slightly less than the margin of victory in the 2006 Democratic wave election (7.9 percent). If Democrats had won in 2012 by the same commanding 7.9 percent margin they achieved in 2006, they would still only have a bare 220-215 seat majority in the incoming House, assuming that these additional votes were distributed evenly throughout the country. That’s how powerful the GOP’s gerrymandered maps are; Democrats can win a Congressional election by nearly 8 points and still barely capture the House.

The chances of Democrats winning the popular vote for the House by eight points in a lower turnout election are next to nil. Historically speaking, the party of the Administration in power during a second presidential term nearly always loses seats. During the first 90 years of the 20th century, the average loss in a 2nd term midterm for the President’s party was a whopping 33 seats.

In a country as closely divided as ours, this essentially means that President Obama could have a 70% approval rating and be destined for Mount Rushmore, but Democrats still likely wouldn’t win back the House in 2014. Nor is 2016 likely to be much solace.

Unless Democrats in a variety of blue states put in place the sort of mid-cycle redistricting undertaken by Tom Delay in Texas and Democrats in Republican-controlled states push for independent citizen redistricting of the sort enacted by California’s Proposition 11, the House is very likely to remain in Republican hands all the way through 2022, when the next district lines will have taken effect following the next census.

It may well be that ours is a nation still and ever divided. It’s certainly true that President Obama is a center-right politician. But a more progressive President won’t make this House of Representatives any more afraid of public sentiment, and for the first time in perhaps forty years, conservative voters are a minority in this country. The President might want his Grand Bargain, but there is no way that cuts to earned benefits would make it through a Democratic House emboldened with an ever stronger progressive coalition and a demoralized and destroyed Blue Dog caucus.

The fact that our lives are still controlled by a group of Confederate revanchists in the year 2013 is an entirely artificial construction of arcane rules of governance, principal among them gerrymandering and the filibuster. Without those rules, this country would already be on its way to a post-Reagan, post-silent-majority Renaissance–Barack Obama’s personal politics notwithstanding.

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QOTD: Barack Obama

QOTD: Barack Obama

by digby

From his own lips:

During an interview with Noticias Univision 23, the network’s Miami affiliate newscast, Obama pushed back against the accusation made in some corners of south Florida’s Cuban-American and Venezuelan communities that he wants to instill a socialist economic system in the U.S. The president said he believes few actually believe that.

“I don’t know that there are a lot of Cubans or Venezuelans, Americans who believe that,” Obama said. “The truth of the matter is that my policies are so mainstream that if I had set the same policies that I had back in the 1980s, I would be considered a moderate Republican.

He’s right. And the fact is that he’s never made any bones about it. It’s just that a whole lot of people on both the right and the left side of the spectrum refuse to believe him. The fallacy, of course, is that being a “moderate Republican” is the definition of mainstream. At least since 1956 or so.

Via Bruce Bartlett’s fascinating article about how the Democrats became moderate Republicans on economics.

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If only we didn’t have that silly democracy thing to worry about

If only we didn’t have that silly democracy thing to worry about

by digby

I give you the ultimate Villager — a columnist for the Washington Post:

It’s important for America’s global standing that Obama, having been reelected, achieve a successful second term in which he is seen to be solving the country’s major problems. He’s likely to have the advantage, these next four years, of an improving U.S. economy. But he has to avoid the mistakes that undermined his first term. Specifically: 

●Obama must lead his own party, as a first step toward truly leading the country. The top Democrats in Congress, Sen. Harry Reid and Rep. Nancy Pelosi, come across to much of the country as partisan, divisive figures. Yet too often, Obama defers to them. Using Biden as the political Mr. Fix-It only compounds this problem. Biden may be a dealmaker, but he’s hardly a visionary. It’s Obama’s job to lead the party toward entitlement reforms and other policies that will be painful but necessary. 

●Obama should champion a clear plan for fiscal reform. Last month, he played “Let’s Make a Deal,” showing his cards only when the other side made concessions. He’s president, not Monty Hall. 

●Obama should communicate his vision forcefully to the country, governing over Congress’s head as Ronald Reagan did, if necessary. 

It’s depressing that after four years of gridlock, a president who won what was supposed to be a decisive election is back once again to the politics of gridlock. That’s bad for Obama but worse for the country. Obama can still be the strong, successful president the country needs — but not unless he lifts his game.

I don’t even know what some of that means. “Showing his cards only when the other side made concessions?” Huh?

But the rest of it is pure Village clap-trap, obviously written while hungover from a cocktail party at Ruth Marcus’s house. No, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are only seen as partisan divisive figures to Republicans. And guess what? John Boehner and Mitch McConnell are seen as even more divisive, partisan figures to the Democrats! What else is new?

But one thing the people who voted for Barack Obama do agree on is that they didn’t elect him twice to enact the Republican agenda. Why Villagers think that makes sense is beyond me. We have a democracy. I’m sorry that doesn’t translate into a consensus to do whatever the Very Serious (Rich) People say we must do, but it doesn’t.

Besides, it’s not as if Obama actually has been capitulating to Pelosi and Reid. In fact, it’s the opposite. But that is still the stale Village trope: the liberals are ruining everything with their hippy-dippy ways! It’s always 1980 in the Village.

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