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Month: October 2013

The Missing Workers

The Missing Workers

by digby

What an excellent time to slash government spending and potentially spark another epic economic meltdown:

That’s from EPI which has found a way to measure how many workers have dropped out of the workforce:

As part of its ongoing effort to create the metrics needed to assess how well the economy is working for America’s broad middle class, EPI is introducing its “missing workers” estimate. Our estimate shows there are currently nearly 5 million missing workers. These are workers who would be in the labor force if job opportunities were significantly expanded but, given the state of the labor market, are sidelined.

Exactly how many missing workers macroeconomic policymakers believe there are has enormous implications for their assessment of the strength of the job market, and therefore for their policy decisions. For example, if they underestimate the number of missing workers, they will overstate the strength of the labor market, and be less likely to provide the economy with the support it needs. As shown in the figure below, if the nearly 5 million missing workers were looking for work and thus counted as unemployed, the unemployment rate in August would have been 10.1 percent instead of 7.3 percent.

In case you were wondering, 10% unemployment is not good.

Goldilocks says to teach them a lesson by giving them what they want

Goldilocks says to teach them a lesson by giving them what they want

by digby

The Supreme Villagers are often so very, very dumb. Get a load of this from noted “centrist” Matt Miller:

In 2011, President Obama let the GOP use the threat of default as extortion; when he caved in during that standoff, and agreed to an all-spending cut budget deal plus the creation of the ill-fated “supercommittee,” the blackmailers won. Two irreconcilable lessons were drawn. First, Obama learned he can never let this brand of hostage-taking happen again, lest he weaken his office and assure the endless spectacle of governance by crisis. Second, tea party Republicans learned that, when push comes to shove, this president blinks. Little wonder they think Obama will shortly buckle again. But no sane steward of the office can allow the debt-ceiling tactics of 2011 to prevail once more. Thus, real danger is much closer than even the sliding stock market in recent days suggests.

Ok, so far so good. Yes, the President would be very foolish to allow the Republicans to prevail and come to believe they can get whatever they want by holding their breath until they turn blue. But wait until you see his solution:

If only there were a deal to be struck that honored both parties’ values, a deal that advanced the cause of both economic rationality and social justice.

The surprising news is that, with a little imagination, that deal exists. It’s this: The president should offer to give states a waiver from the rollout of Obamacare if (and only if) they implement instead a system of universal catastrophic health insurance in their state.

Yeah, that’ll teach ’em. Completely disarm right in the middle of implementation. I’m sure they’ll be properly chastised and will promise never, ever to hold the government hostage again.

Not to mention totally screwing over the actual humans who are on the brink of being able to buy affordable health insurance right now. Sure a few may have to die and/or bankrupt their families, but it’s a small price to pay for appeasing a bunch of fanatics. It’s the responsible thing to do.

These are what some people call “thought leaders.”

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They know they can win even when they lose

They know they can win even when they lose

by digby

As is so often the case, Ed Kilgore gets it right:

Now as I’ve noted before, it’s become fashionable to believe that this disarray over strategic goals in a crisis situation reflects some sort of GOP “nihilism,” a lack of any clear shared objectives. I think it’s the opposite: an abundance of goals that are simply unobtainable in normal politics but that might be secured via negotiations where the opponent (Barack Obama) makes it happen and provides cover.

Yes, they want to mess with Obamacare. They want to begin undermining Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid as they are currently constituted. They want to make the federal tax code even more regressive. They want to maximize institutional pressure on the portions of the federal budget they dislike. And as Ralph Reed reminds us, yes, they want to ban abortion and restrict federally-supported access to birth control. And most of all, they want to set a precedent that control of the House (which they view as semi-eternally theirs), the chamber that mythically is charged with management of “the purse,” is power enough to make and secure big demands on the size, structure and direction of government, regardless of what happens in, say, presidential elections.

I would just add that although they cannot get all that they are demanding, I think they will actually end up with at least some of what they want. But in the minds of their most fervent followers (and a substantial number of the idiots they’ve elected)  they are a persecuted minority who are fighting for their lives so anything less than full victory for their entire agenda will be felt as a defeat. (And that feeling will be stoked and nurtured by the right wing industry that profits from their persecution complex.)

I have been pointing out ad nauseam, for too many years now, that the Republicans are perhaps the most effective opposition party well … ever. It’s not that they win all their battles by any means. They lose a lot.  And now they finally seem to have even lost much of the political establishment which took decades to notice that they’d become a bunch of radical cranks. But that isn’t going to stop them because even though their wild-eyed followers may be unhappy that they didn’t get the magic pony they were promised, the real strategists like the moneybags Koch brothers and Pete Peterson, along with smart operatives like Norquist and Ryan, know that they can advance their agenda no matter who is in power. The tactics shift depending on the circumstances, but the overall strategy never changes: drown the welfare state in the bathtub.

It’s important to remember that Norquist and the boys are very long term thinkers. To them, low taxes aren’t just a rich man’s perk rewarding them for being “job creators” — or even a generally good thing on pure principle. Low taxes are a means to an end. And that end is this:

The common vision: an America in which the rich will be taxed at the same rates as the poor, where capital is freed from government constraints, where government services are turned over to the free market, where the minimum wage is repealed, unions are made irrelevant, and law-abiding citizens can pack handguns in every state and town. “My ideal citizen is the self-employed, homeschooling, IRA-owning guy with a concealed-carry permit,” says Norquist. “Because that person doesn’t need the goddamn government for anything.”

And this:

“My goal is to cut government in half in twenty-five years, to get it down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub.”

We want to reduce the size of government in half as a percentage of GNP over the next 25 years. We want to reduce the number of people depending on government so there is more autonomy and more free citizens.”

It’s not as if they’ve been quiet about this. And the thing about Norquist and the boys is that while the GOP is their main political instrument, they also use the Democrats — through money, intimidation and now, political terrorism. They don’t see their agenda as being subject to the whims of the people through its democratic processes. They will use whatever tools they have at hand.

Norquist is a revolutionary:

There was nothing traditionally conservative in Grover’s approach. As I conformed myself to the movement, I was being inculcated into a radical cult that bore none of the positive attributes of classical conservatism-a sense of limits, fair play, Tory civility, and respect for individual freedom. On the contrary, Grover admired the iron dedication of Lenin, whose dictum “Probe with bayonets, looking for weakness” he often quoted, and whose majestic portrait hung in Grover’s Washington living room. Grover kept a pet boa constrictor, named after the turn-of-the-century anarchist Lysander Spooner. He fed the snake mice, all of them named David Bonior, the outspoken liberal House whip.

Not that Grover is literally running the Republican party. He’s just one of many ideologues and operatives who make a very good living at right wing politics. His tax pledge has been an effective tool although it may have finally run its course as the whip that keeps the caucus in line. (But then they have other whips now — called primaries.) He is not personally relevant except to the extent his thinking has permeated the conservative movement for a generation. Why would anyone be surprised that they have become political terrorists now? They have been leading up to this for over 25 years.

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Who needs government Part XXII

Who needs government Part XXII

by digby

Via Wired:

Late-breaking news, and I’ll update as I find out more: While the government is shut down, with food-safety personnel and disease detectives sent home and forbidden to work, a major foodborne-illness outbreak has begun. This evening, the Food Safety and Inspection Service of the US Department of Agriculture announced that “an estimated 278 illnesses … reported in 18 states” have been caused by chicken contaminated with Salmonella Heidelberg and possibly produced by the firm Foster Farms.

“FSIS is unable to link the illnesses to a specific product and a specific production period,” the agency said in an emailed alert. “The outbreak is continuing.”

This is the exact situation that CDC and other about-to-be-furloughed federal personnel warned about last week. As a reminder, a CDC staffer told me at the time:

I know that we will not be conducting multi-state outbreak investigations. States may continue to find outbreaks, but we won’t be doing the cross-state consultation and laboratory work to link outbreaks that might cross state borders.

That means that the lab work and molecular detection that can link far-apart cases and define the size and seriousness of outbreaks are not happening. At the CDC, which operates the national foodborne-detection services FoodNet and PulseNet, scientists couldn’t work on this if they wanted to; they have been locked out of their offices, lab and emails. (At a conference I attended last week, 10 percent of the speakers did not show up because they were CDC personnel and risked being fired if they traveled even voluntarily.)

In case it seems like this is not a big deal (just 300 illnesses, just some raw chicken): foodborne illness can have lifelong consequences that range from arthritis to kidney trouble to heart disease. And: The number of illnesses that can be identified in any foodborne outbreak are almost always an under-estimate.

I guess the only answer is to stay away from chicken — or any kitchen that prepares chicken — until the GOP demand to defund health care reform is resolved.

At some point you really have to ask yourself if the whole point of all this is to kill people.

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The GOP isn’t just threatening the President. They’re threatening the Presidency, by @DavidOAtkins

The GOP isn’t just threatening the President. They’re threatening the Presidency.

by David Atkins

It would be hard to fault Republicans for believing that President Obama and Congressional Democrats would cave in the face of a government shutdown and debt default crisis. After all, Republicans have dominated Democrats on previous fiscal showdowns, including on the sequester just a few short months after being resoundingly defeated in a major election.

So the President’s sudden showing of spine has surprised Republicans and put them in an uncomfortable bind. Where did it come from?

The simplest explanation is that Republicans aren’t just threatening the President’s signature legislative accomplishment or important priorities like Social Security and Medicare. After all, President Obama has already shown a willingness to make concessions on all those fronts, whether it be delaying business mandates or seeking his white whale of a Grand Bargain on earned benefits.

No, the problem is that Republicans are threatening the office of the Presidency itself. That was the big strategic error. President Obama has already shown himself quite fond of the special powers of the President. he has always seemed more comfortable conducting secret Executive branch operations than handling the faux politesse, arm twisting and dinner party charms of legislative wrangling. He’s so comfortable in the Executive domain that those on both sides who worry primarily about Executive overreach often see him as a villain equal to or worse than George W. Bush. The President is also a scholar of legal history and Constitutional jurisprudence, a man keenly aware of the precedent he sets for future Presidents.

The President knows what few in the press are pointing out: that it’s not just that Republicans are taking the country and world economy hostage in order to prevent people from getting healthcare or in order to cut Social Security and Medicare. That’s bad enough, obviously. But they’re also threatening to overturn the very structure of the United States government, rendering the President an essentially superfluous rubber stamp to the will of Congress in general, and the House of Representatives in particular.

If the Republicans succeed in securing ransom for their hostages, it will destroy the veto power of the Presidency. From that moment onward, any dispute between the White House and the House of Representatives would be definitively resolved in favor of the latter whenever the next budgetary or debt ceiling cycle came due. It would be a radical reinterpretation of government far more extreme than the filibuster.

Even if the President were willing to throw every legislative priority overboard, he would not have his lasting legacy be the destruction of the power of the Presidency. That is why he is standing firm on his commitment to negotiate, but only when the threat of duress has been removed. To protect not just his Presidency but the office of the President itself, he has no choice left.

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Paul Ryan throws out an olive branch

Paul Ryan throws out an olive branch

by digby

He wrote an op-ed in the WSJ:

[T]he president has negotiated before, and he can do so now. In 2011, Oregon’s Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden and I offered ideas to reform Medicare. We had different perspectives, but we also had mutual trust. Neither of us had to betray his principles; all we had to do was put prudence ahead of pride.

If Mr. Obama decides to talk, he’ll find that we actually agree on some things. For example, most of us agree that gradual, structural reforms are better than sudden, arbitrary cuts. For my Democratic colleagues, the discretionary spending levels in the Budget Control Act are a major concern. And the truth is, there’s a better way to cut spending. We could provide relief from the discretionary spending levels in the Budget Control Act in exchange for structural reforms to entitlement programs.

These reforms are vital. Over the next 10 years, the Congressional Budget Office predicts discretionary spending—that is, everything except entitlement programs and debt payments—will grow by $202 billion, or roughly 17%. Meanwhile, mandatory spending—which mostly consists of funding for Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security—will grow by $1.6 trillion, or roughly 79%. The 2011 Budget Control Act largely ignored entitlement spending. But that is the nation’s biggest challenge.

He also says they can agree to do tax reform which he defines as “lower the rates, broaden the base and close loopholes.” So that’s good.

Important to note that he explicitly says this is not a Grand Bargain, something the president has defined in the past as exactly what he describes in this op-ed (“health care reform, entitlement reform and tax reform”.) Important because if he were to define it as something the president has repeatedly said he wanted there is almost no chance that the Tea Party Republicans would agree to it.

Who knows what this means? But it’s interesting, especially when you compare it to what the president said today:

I’ve put forward proposals in my budget to reform entitlement programs for the long haul and reform our tax code in a way that would close loopholes for the wealthiest and lower rates for corporations and help us invest in new jobs and reduce our deficits. And some of these were originally Republican proposals, because I don’t believe any party has a monopoly on good ideas. So I’ve shown myself willing to go more than halfway in these conversations, and if reasonable Republicans want to talk about these things again, I’m ready to head up to the Hill and try. I’ll even spring for dinner again.

Sounds like it could be the beginning of a beautiful friendship….

Update:

There’s blackmail and then there’s *blackmail*

There’s blackmail and then there’s blackmail


by digby

Ok, now they’re getting crazy:

As a diehard Dodger fan I must deplore this outrageous attempt to take the national pastime hostage unless the Braves are given the pennant. We will never back down, we will never give in, we will never negotiate!

Nonetheless I will reiterate our willingness to sit down and see if we can find a way to allocate the runs and the games in a way that the Braves will feel is more fair once this crisis is past. Sometimes the other side has some good plays that deserve recognition. Why, we could even see our way to giving up the division title and replaying the last game if that’s what it takes.  Dodgers are the grown ups on the field and in the dugout (if not the swimming pool.)

But no way can we agree to even discuss replaying the NLDS without Puig, Kershaw, Uribe and Ramirez (although, as I’ve said repeatedly, my offer to do that is still on the table) until the Braves relinquish their demand that the congress outlaw baseball. We will not be blackmailed.

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Politico reports, you decide, by @DavidOAtkins

Politico reports, you decide

by David Atkins

This is what Politico looks like today, just for future reference:

When historians look back on this period with amazed condescension, bloodless and misleading “balanced” reporting like this will be seen as one of the primary culprits.

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Let’s not kid ourselves. It’s all one negotiation.

Let’s not kid ourselves. It’s all one negotiation.

by digby

Noam Schieber on the proposal being floated for a short term debt limit deal:

The problem with a short-term debt limit increase is it muddies everything you’re trying to make clear. Suppose Congress reopened the government for six weeks under a temporary funding bill known as a continuing resolution (CR) while at the same time raising the debt limit for six weeks. Obama has said he’s happy to negotiate a fiscal deal once the government is reopened, even as he refuses to negotiate the debt limit.

Under this scenario, how would he differentiate between the two? Even if the White House were absolutely scrupulous about not trading anything for the debt limit increase (that is, not making more concessions for a budget deal that includes a debt-ceiling increase than they’d make for a budget deal without one), Boehner could always turn around and tell his rank-and-file that some of the concessions came in return for the debt-ceiling measure. It wouldn’t matter if he were right or wrong. The mere belief among Republicans that they’d extracted concessions for raising the debt limit would encourage them to try again.

I have made the mistake in the past of thinking that kicking the can down the road is better than nothing. I no longer think that’s a good idea. It requires too much faith in all parties to regroup and allow the more or less sane people to find a way out.

The idea that you can successfully separate the government shutdown from the debt ceiling negotiations at this point is just silly. Unless the President can extract an ironclad agreement not to use the debt ceiling in the future, the Republicans will see any budget/tax/Obamacare cutting deal that’s made in the next few months as being the result of their debt ceiling brinksmanship. How do I know this? Well, look at how they interpret previous debt ceiling moments:

“The debt ceiling historically has been among the best leverage that Congress has to rein in the executive,” Cruz replied. “There’s great historical precedent. Since 1978 we’ve raised the debt ceiling fifty-five times. A majority of those times, twenty-eight times, Congress has attached very specific and stringent requirements, many of the most significant spending restraints, things like Gramm Rudman [i.e. the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Balanced Budget Act], things like sequestration, came through the debt ceiling.”

“So the president’s demand, jack up the country’s credit card with no limits and no constraints, is not a reasonable one,” Cruz said.

As I wrote before, notice how he says “came through the debt ceiling”? Sequestration is a great example of that. It was the result of a deal to raise the debt ceiling in exchange for a super-committee with triggers for disastrous spending cuts if they couldn’t come to an agreement — which, when dealing with terrorists, is a guarantee for disastrous spending cuts. We all know what happened.

Moreover, notice how he pretends that these were all controversial acts perpetrated by a minority seeking to impose its will on the majority. That has not been the case up until now. Sure, there have been amendments attached to the debt ceiling, but they were passed by a majority of both houses and signed into law by the president in ordinary fashion. This hostage situation is not the way we do things. However, you can see that Ted Cruz sees no difference. It’s all about getting his way by any means necessary.

One assumes that there are open back channels in which negotiators from the White House, the Senate and the House can find one another. And it may sound like a very good idea to pass the 6 week clean CR in exchange for “raising the debt ceiling” temporarily in order that the president can claim he stuck to his guns not to negotiate until the government was reopened and the threat of default was lifted. But I guarantee that Ted and the boys will see whatever comes out of those negotiations as a terrific victory for their debt ceiling strategy and they will not hesitate to do it again the first chance they get. Because it will be true. This crisis would not exist if it weren’t for the House Republicans refusing to bring the budget to the floor and allow a pro-forma vote to raise the debt ceiling. And everyone knows it.

Update: Boehner himself just rattled off a bunch of previous debt limit votes as evidence that this is all business as usual and the Democrats are being weird. Maybe they even believe it, I don’t know.

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Gephardt rising?

Gephardt rising?

by digby

Yesterday I mentioned that when I was on his show Sam Seder had pondered the idea that Obama might be willing to make a big deal in exchange for a “process” that could end the debt ceiling showdown (and showdowns to come.)

Well …

I’m not sure that’s exactly what Sam had in mind — the process here is likely to be some kind of superduper-human-sacrifice-committee.  But if the president really wants to end these stand-offs for the sake of the future (and the stability of the world economy) he’s going to need them to agree to a different kind of “procedure”. You’ll recall that Sam thought it would be along the lines of this old rule:

Back in 1979, the Democratic House Speaker, Tip O’Neill, handed the unhappy job of lining up votes for a debt-ceiling raise to Representative Richard Gephardt, then a young Democratic congressman from Missouri. Gephardt hated this, and, realizing he’d probably get stuck with it again, consulted the parliamentarian about whether the two votes could be combined. The parliamentarian said they could. Thereafter, whenever the House passed a budget resolution, the debt ceiling was “deemed” raised.

The “Gephardt Rule,” as it became known, lasted until 1995, when the new House Speaker, Newt Gingrich, fresh from the Republican triumph of the 1994 midterms, recognized the same thing that Tea Party Republicans recognize today: The threat of default could be used to extort Democratic concessions. Gingrich abolished the Gephardt Rule, and within the year the government had shut down.

I think the president wants to put this default genie back in the bottle as much as he wants anything so I’d certainly look for something like this in the mix of any deal. If it isn’t we might as well resign ourselves to living in the Tea Party’s  dystopian hellscape — the rest of the world is not going to see the US as a reliable economic steward going forward unless they put an end to this. But dear God, I shudder to think what the Republicans would extract in exchange for such an agreement…

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