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Month: May 2016

Like chickens in a bell jar by @BloggersRUs

Like chickens in a bell jar
by Tom Sullivan

Pretty soon Republicans won’t need to insist voters present photo identity cards at the polls. The will have trained “wrong thinking people” not to try. The New York Times reported on studies indicating how that works: people confused about how the ID laws work simply stay home:

“What voters hear is that you need to have an ID,” said Mark P. Jones of the Baker Institute, an author of the study. “But they don’t get the second part that says if you have one of these types of IDs, you’re O.K.”

Representative Pete Gallego, a Texas Democrat, lost his 2014 reelection bid by just 2,422 votes. This year he is asking voters if they have a driver’s license.

After Mr. Gallego’s narrow loss in 2014, researchers from the Baker Institute and the University of Houston’s Hobby Center for Public Policy polled 400 registered voters in the district who sat out the election. All were asked why they did not vote, rating on a scale of 1 to 5 from a list of seven explanations — being ill, having transportation problems, being too busy, being out of town, lacking interest, disliking the candidates and lacking a required photo identification.

Nearly 26 percent said the main reason was that they were too busy. At the other end, 5.8 percent said the main reason was lacking a proper photo ID, with another 7 percent citing it as one reason. Most surprising, however, was what researchers found when they double-checked that response: The vast majority of those who claimed not to have voted because they lacked a proper ID actually possessed one, but did not know it.

Moreover, Dr. Jones of the Baker Institute said, “The confused voters said they would have voted overwhelmingly for Gallego.”

The Times cites researcher Zoltan L. Hajnal (whom we have mentioned before) whose studies indicate “We’re finding typically that strict voter ID laws double or triple the gap in turnout between whites and nonwhites.” That paper is here.

Charlie Pierce casts a jaundiced eye on the excuse that these laws are needed to combat fraud:

But the most pungent of these flavors has been the technique of requiring the ID, and then either making the ID almost impossible to acquire or failing to inform the voters what kind of ID they need. In both cases, if things work the way they’re designed to work, enough of the voters you’re trying to screw out of their franchise just give up and stay home. Then, when the election comes out the way you want it to come out, you can shake your head sadly at how lazy said voters are. After a couple of election cycles, the frustration sets in generally and the people you don’t want involved in government remove themselves from it. Then you get to write earnest op-eds wondering where civic engagement has gone.

There is that (apocryphal?) story about a chicken raised inside a bell jar. When one day researchers removed the jar, the chicken continued to walk around in circles as though the glass barrier were still in place. Republicans hope to raise vast numbers of minority voters inside bell jars against the day when these ID laws fall. But by then said voters will have internalized the limits to their citizenship and keep walking in circles.

Combustible pants

Combustible pants

by digby

Trump’s been telling everyone who’ll listen that women hate Hillary Clinton and love him. It’s far fetched to say the least. Politifact took a look:

During a May 2 interview on CNN’s New Day, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump doubled down on his charge that his potential Democratic rival in November, Hillary Clinton, is playing the “woman card.”

“She’s playing the woman card,” Trump told host Chris Cuomo. “And if she didn’t play the woman card, she would have no chance whatsoever of winning.”

Trump went on to say that Clinton’s standing among female voters in particular is nothing to write home about.

“Frankly, (Hillary Clinton) doesn’t do very well with women,” Trump said. “If you look at what happened recently, … in the last two weeks, including New York. I won with women by vast, vast majorities. I was way, way up with women far above anybody else in the exit polls of the recent election.”

Clinton may have gleefully embraced Trump’s “woman card” attack line, but we thought it’s still worth checking whether Trump is right that Clinton “doesn’t do very well with women.”

Trump, as it turns out, couldn’t be more wrong.

The recent primaries

Let’s give Trump his due: He has a right to be braggadocious about his own record with women voters in recent GOP primaries.

Trump unquestionably routed his opponents among female voters during the four recent primaries for which exit polls exist. He won 57 percent of women in the New York primary, 55 percent of women in the Connecticut primary, 50 percent of women in the Maryland primary, and 54 percent of women in the Pennsylvania primary.

That said, even among women voting in these GOP primaries, Trump experiences a gender gap: According to these exit polls, women — by a modest but consistent margin — supported Trump by smaller margins than men did. In New York, he was six points stronger among men. In Connecticut that gap was five points, in Maryland it was nine points, and in Pennsylvania it was seven points.

And there’s an even more important problem for Trump’s claim: His own success among Republican women doesn’t have anything to say about how well or poorly Clinton is doing with women.

Polling a Clinton vs. Trump matchup 

We found seven April polls at realclearpolitics.com that asked respondents about how they would vote if Clinton faced off against Trump in November. Here’s a rundown:

Clearly, this doesn’t support Trump’s assertion that Clinton “doesn’t do very well with women.”

We are still a long way from Election Day, of course, but if this pattern holds, it would represent a gender gap of historic proportions. Here’s how women have split their vote in presidential elections going back to 1980, as collected by Rutgers University’s Center for the American Woman and Politics:

So, Clinton’s 19-point average lead over Trump among women — if it held all the way to November — would give her the biggest winning margin among women of any presidential candidate since at least 1980.[…]

Our ruling

Trump said, “Frankly, (Hillary Clinton) doesn’t do very well with women.”

The evidence he used to support this claim during the CNN interview — his large margins among women in recent GOP primaries — is undeniable, but says nothing about how well Clinton does among women. In fact, looking at a cross-section of April polls, Clinton’s average lead over Trump among female voters is bigger than any nominee has registered in an actual presidential election election in at least 36 years. We rate Trump’s statement Pants on Fire.

It’s also true that Democrats do not win a majority of white women’s votes. Their advantage is with the huge majorities with women of color. Trump might change that this year. He’s such a lying pig that I could some percentage of moderate GOP women being unable to hold their noses and vote for him no matter what.

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A progressive hero for congress @EricKingsonNY

A progressive hero for congress


by digby

A few years back I was privileged to speak on a panel with two of America’s most prestigious experts on the Social Security program, Nancy Altman and Eric Kingson. If you are grateful that the fight to save Social Security over the past decade has been successful and that Democrats are now running on the proposal to raise benefits, you have those two people largely to thank for it. Their book Social Security Works!: Why Social Security Isn’t Going Broke and How Expanding It Will Help Us All and the advocacy group Social Security Works have been instrumental in not only battling back the decades long conservative project to destroy the program, but have actually managed to get the ball rolling on much needed expansion.

Now Eric Kingson has decided to leave the hallowed halls of academia to run for congress and Blue America has been thrilled to endorse him. He’s in a tough primary and he needs our help.

Blue America is firing up our trusty mobile billboard truck again and taking Eric Kingson’s important message to upstate New Yorkers in Syracuse, Manlius, Fulton, Oswego, Auburn, Weedsport and into the eastern suburbs of Rochester. Can you help with a little gas money?

We want the truck to ply the highways and byways– and city streets– of NY-24 right up until the June 28th primary. The picture above is a rendering of one of the two billboards on the truck. Our Independent Expenditure Committee already paid for it. We’d like to raise the $12,500 it’ll take to keep it on the road until primary day. Any contribution would be awesome; our average has been $46.75.

If you want to contribute to Eric Kingson’s campaign directly, you can do it here.

It is very difficult to persuade good people to run for office. It’s become a nasty, negative, horrible project and life is short. You cannot blame anyone for feeling their time on this earth might be better spent.

A hero like Eric Kingson is someone whose contributions already put him in the progressive hall of fame and he could easily rest on his laurels.  Instead he’s putting himself out there to run for congress to try to make our government more progressive and more decent.

If you think that’s important, as I do, please consider helping us to help him get there. 


Thanks. 

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QOTD: Richard M Nixon

QOTD: Richard M Nixon

by digby

Rick Perlstein wrote in to point out that the Nixon quote I featured yesterday is actually much more interesting:

I don’t think any woman should be in any government job whatsoever. I mean I really don’t. The reason I do is mainly because they are erratic. And emotional. Men are erratic and emotional too but the point is that women are more likely to be.

“Right”

“The second problem is that in terms of the Court I know that that’s like living with somebody inside a spaceship.

“Yep”

“See, you’re just one little group of people”

“Absolutely”

“What about that poor Burger? What he’d have to go through? So from the standpoint of that I just think we shouldn’t have a woman. There should never be a woman there.”

He did go on to game out whether it might buy him some votes and concluded that if it could get him a couple of points it might be worth it.

You don’t hear a lot of that sort of talk these days among politicians although Donald Trump is coming close when he says something like this:

“Frankly, all I’m doing is stating the obvious. Without the woman’s card, Hillary would not even be a viable person to run for city council.”

As we watch the Republican party start to coalesce around their self-declared presumptive nominee keep in mind that he’s an unreconstructed Nixon on this particular issue (and plenty of others.) And millions of Republicans don’t seem to mind.

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Cruz goes into the belly of the beast

Cruz goes into the belly of the beast

by digby

This is a fascinating exchange between Ted Cruz and a Trump supporter in Indiana today. I urge you to watch the whole thing. I think it perfectly illustrates two of the fault lines in the GOP today:

Cruz deploys all the usual right wing talking points and exposes Trump as the liar and hypocrite he is. But it does little good. Trump’s supporters show exactly why they love Trump: he distills politics down to zingers and attitude. Cruz is a completely different animal.

These supporters are clearly following this election very closely and know all the controversies and details. Trump is hero to them, speaking for them. It has absolutely nothing to do with policies or even politics. This is about winning, just like the Donald always says.

Here is some of the stuff that was said or shouted to Cruz in that scrum:

Lyin’ Ted!

The Wall.That’s the main thing!

He’ll take down ISIS, he’ll take down the whole damn thing

Career politicians have killed America!

Ok Lyin’ Ted

You are the problem, politician, you are the problem!

Where’s your Goldman Sachs jacket at we know your wife works there.

I believe in Trump he’s the only one who’s gonna put us where we need to be

What are you gonna do about the 2nd Amendment?

You’re lying like you always do

Indiana don’t want you …

Personally I think it takes some guts to do that. Cruz is a nerd and it shows and these aren’t the kind of people who are going to be persuaded by his arguments. But if they show it on TV in Indiana tonight a few people might think to themselves that Cruz has a little more intestinal fortitude than they realized.

I don’t know how many of those Trump folks exist in the country but it numbers in the many millions I’m sure. They don’t respond to arguments. They respond to dominance. And Trump’s delivering it.

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Imperialist thug

Imperialist thug

by digby

I wrote about Trump’s foreign policy for Salon this morning:

So Maureen Dowd officially weighed in on the probable general election match-up this past week-end with her standard take on everything: politics as a never-ending battle between macho men, effeminate boys and masculine girls. Normally this breaks down for Dowd as the tiresome Daddy and Mommy party split with the swaggering, manly Republicans vs the timorous girly-men Democrats. She flips the script when a Democratic woman is running, portraying her as a steely battle-ax squaring off with a needy, epicene male.  This is how Maureen Dowd arrived at the laughable notion that Donald Trump is a “dove” compared to Hillary Clinton’s  “hawk”.

Maureen Dowd’s puerile, genderized cartoon version of American politics is nothing if not predictable. In fairness, however, others have come to the same conclusion for different reasons.  But however it’s arrived at, it’s completely absurd. Hillary Clinton may be hawkish, depending on your perspective. But Donald Trump, by any comparison, is not a dove. He’s not even a hawk. He’s a bloodthirsty, prehistoric bird of prey.

Let’s first dispense with Trump’s main claim to dovish “prognostication”, the insistence that he spoke out against the Iraq war when everyone else was enthusiastically jumping on the bandwagon. That’s a very brave tale except for the fact that nobody found a scintilla of evidence of it being true.  Here’s what Trump was saying in January of 2003, before the invasion:

Cavuto: If you had to sort of breakdown for the president, if you were advising him, how much time do you commit to Iraq versus how much time you commit to the economy, what would you say?

Trump: Well, I’m starting to think that people are much more focused now on the economy. They are getting a little bit tired of hearing, we’re going in, we’re not going in, the — you know, whatever happened to the days of the Douglas MacArthur. He would go and attack. He wouldn’t talk. We have to — you know, it’s sort like either do it or don’t do it. When I watch Dan Rather explaining how we are going to be attacking, where we’re going to attack, what routes we’re taking, what kind of planes we’re using, how to stop them, how to stop us, it is a little bit disconcerting. I’ve never seen this, where newscasters are telling you how — telling the enemy how we’re going about it, we have just found out this and that. It is ridiculous.

That’s hardly a scathing indictment of the war. In fact it sounds like he’s for it he just thinks they should do it more efficiently. Indeed, that concept forms the basis of his “unpredictability doctrine” in which the most powerful nation on earth transforms itself into a guerilla army that only travels at night, “takes out” the enemy and then sends the world the bill.  That line of criticism is common in his stump speech today in which he extols the virtues of maverick Generals MacArthur and George Patton as men who can get the job done and get it done quickly. And the job, you may have heard, is winning. He’s not particular how they do it.

But perhaps you think he means something other than military victory when he says that. And you’d be  right. He wants to “send messages” too and let’s just say they aren’t messages of peace. In California this past week-end he repeated this lurid tale about another of his favorite Generals who knew how to win, “Black Jack” Pershing in the Spanish American War. The story goes that Pershing was trying to put down a Muslim insurgency in the Philippines and Trump likes to tell th story of how Pershing easily dealt with the problem:

“They took the 50 [Muslim insurgents], they lined them up. They took a pig and then took a second pig and they cut the pig open and they took the bullets from the rifles. And they dumped the bullets into the pigs and they swashed it around. Then they took the bullets and they shot 49 of the 50 people. The fiftieth person, they said, ‘Take this bullet and bring it back to all of the people causing the problem’ and tell ‘em what happened tonight. And for 42 years they didn’t have a problem with radical Islamic terrorism, folks, OK believe me.”

There is no word on why they needed two pigs to get the job done. And there’s also no word on why he says at some stops that they didn’t “have a problem” for 25 years and at others for 42 years. But it doesn’t matter since the story is apocryphal at best and a hoax at worst.  Regardless, you have the front runner of the Republican Party openly celebrating a war crime.  But then, he’s all for summary execution of American soldiers too if they get out of line too so it’s not as if he’s unusually bigoted about it.

That is not the only war crime Trump endorses, of course. This is a man who reiterated his full support for torture, just last week in Indiana: 

 “They asked me, What do you think about waterboarding, Mr. Trump?’ I said I love it. I love it, I think it’s great. And I said the only thing is, we should make it much tougher than waterboarding, and if you don’t think it works folks, you’re wrong.”

Somebody finally told him that torture is illegal so he now adds a disclaimer about how we have to “strengthen” the laws to allow for more torture. It’s unknown if he understands the history of “legalizing” torture in the Bush administration but it doesn’t really matter. One can be fairly sure there will always be some people who are willing to do such wet work if some kind of legal authority can be produced. After all, no members of the Bush administration or the CIA were ever so much as reprimanded and they left a long paper trail showing how to legalize it, so there is little exposure for those who carry out such orders.  Torture has been illegal in America for a very long time but it didn’t stop them from doing it before and it’s reasonable to assume that a President Trump will find a way.

His love for war crimes knows no bounds:

“ISIS is our No. 1 threat. I would knock the hell out of them. I like to do one thing at a time.” 

Asked about the possibility of civilian casualties, Trump initially pointed to civilians being used as human shields before suggesting the families of terrorists should be targeted. 

“I would do my best, absolute best — I mean, one of the problems we have or one of the reasons we’re so ineffective, you know, they’re trying to, they’re using them as shields. It’s a horrible thing But we’re fighting a very politically correct war. And the other thing is with the terrorists, you have to take out their families. 

When you get these terrorists, you have to take out their families. They care about their lives, don’t kid yourself. But they say they don’t care about their lives. You have to take out their families.” 

That speaks for itself.

And then there is the nuclear issue. He has confusingly said that nuclear proliferation is the world’s greatest challenge while also suggesting that countries such as Japan, South Korea and Saudi Arabia should have them so as to save the US from having to provide military protection.  And he won’t rule out using them. Even against Europe:

“Look, nuclear should be off the table, but would there a time when it could be used? Possibly,” Trump said. 

Matthews asked Trump to tell the Middle East and Europe that he would never use nuclear weapons, but Trump continued to evade. Asked again if he’d use nuclear weapons in Europe, Trump held firm. “I am not—I am not taking cards off the table,” Trump responded.

This does not sound like a dove. Or a sane person.

Some people will undoubtedly try to separate these violent, sociopathic comments from what they hopefully perceive as his more “isolationist” worldview. (The fact that he plans to vastly increase military spending escapes their notice.) But this January article in Politico by Thomas Wright  shows that his foreign policy philosophy something else entirely.

Wright went back over three decades and examined Trumps rhetoric and found that Trump has been saying exactly the same things in exactly the same way for 30 years. He’s not opportunistically jumping on the zeitgeist or following a trend. For instance, he gave an interview 26 years ago to Playboy and was asked what a president Trump would do if he were president. He said:

“He would believe very strongly in extreme military strength. He wouldn’t trust anyone. He wouldn’t trust the Russians; he wouldn’t trust our allies; he’d have a huge military arsenal, perfect it, understand it. Part of the problem is that we’re defending some of the wealthiest countries in the world for nothing. … We’re being laughed at around the world, defending Japan. 

We Americans are laughed at around the world for losing a hundred and fifty billion dollars year after year, for defending wealthy nations for nothing, nations that would be wiped off the face of the earth in about 15 minutes if it weren’t for us. Our ‘allies’ are making billions screwing us.”

In that Playboy article he said he thought Gorbachev didn’t have a strong enough hand and expressed disgust for the Tienanmen Square protesters,“when the students poured into Tiananmen Square, the Chinese government almost blew it. Then they were vicious, they were horrible, but they put it down with strength. That shows you the power of strength. Our country is right now perceived as weak … as being spit on by the rest of the world.” His admiration for Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un is well known.

In 1988 he told Oprah Winfrey that “Kuwait should pay the United States 25 percent of their oil profits because the United States “makes it possible for them to sell it” and “the United States would make a hell of a lot of money from those nations that have been taking advantage of us.” Quite simply, it appears that Donald Trump wants to “make deals” for the US to sell its “protection” to the world. And if they refuse to pay, well the world will just have to bear the consequences.

This is certainly a break from the post WWII foreign policy consensus which should always be subject to reassessment and adjustment. But he was saying exactly the same things at a time when the world was in a completely different place. These ideas are not responsive to globalization or a need for post-Cold War realignment. He literally hasn’t had a new thought about any of this since the 1980s.

They certainly aren’t dovish and they aren’t isolationist and it would be a mistake to confuse them for anything but what they are: a belief in American global dominance:

“The first thing you have to do is get them to respect the West and respect us. And if they’re not going to respect us it’s never going to work. This has been going on for a long time. I don’t think you can do anything and I don’t think you’re going to be successful unless they respect you. They have no respect for our president and they have no respect for our country right now.” 

This is the simple-minded philosophy, formed decades ago and suspended in amber, of an imperial thug. It’s hard to imagine anything more dangerous.

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Making it easy

Making it easy

by digby

This is a terrible problem. Someone on twitter pointed out that the rural west appears to be hardest hit. I’m sure there are a lot of reasons why that would be and maybe they’ve controlled for this in the studies. But gun culture is very big there. And people tend to be successful when they attempt suicide with one.

Update: I just found this…

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Some things are timeless by @BloggersRUs

Some things are timeless
by Tom Sullivan

This was at the top of my news feed when I got home. Borrowing this wholesale from a Facebook post by Rick Perlstein:

One of the letters Senator Thomas McIntyre got in 1978 after voting for the Panama Canal treaties: “Quisling Traitor Senator McIntyre: Conservative Republicans have added your despicable name to the list of TRAITORS in our stench-producing Senate tainted by those on the Radical Left and representing your ilk. Your refusal to be swayed by either reason or eloquence indicates your leftist orientation…An awesomely large mass of information can be mobilized to invalidate your fuzzy left-wing thinking. Traitors of your gutter orientation abound in our corrupt Senate dominated by the scum and vermin of the Marxist Democrats/ Rest assured, Commissar McIntyre, that you will be classified as insidious and corrupt. Americans who care t stand u in your Marxist behalf are to be sledge-hammered as QUISLINGS and odious incendiaries. We will concentrate on your vicious leftist VOTING RECORD and your excessive loyalty to the liberal pig in the tainted WHITE HOUSE. My qualifications: Washington Unviversity postgraduate and honor student. You are unquestionably one of the most DISHONEST AND VICIOUSLY CORRUPT hucksters and charlatans in our thieving Senate controleld by vermin of your Far Left views. We will work assiduously to damn you in scathing terms. YOU ARE AIDING AND ABETTING your beloved communist cause. conservatives ARE BEING ENLISTED TO STOMP OUR WAY THORUGH OUR COMMUNIZING SENATE WHIHC DARES TO STAND UP TO ITS conservative betters. Rest assured that we deem you to be on THE same plane as the COMMUNISTS. You are vermin.”

Currently seeing similar sentiments (only with better spelling) among local T-party types over this:

The N.C. Republican Party ousted its chairman Saturday in a two-thirds majority vote after months of infighting that has mirrored divisions in the national GOP.

[…]

Harnett was the state party’s first black chairman. He was elected last year with Tea Party support, beating a candidate who had endorsements from nearly every GOP statewide elected official.

That prompted this comment on one T-party blog:

What conservative wants anything to do with the NCGOPe these days? It is chaired by a member of the liberal Ripon Society, Robin Hayes, with the real power being exercized by former Karl Rove front man Dallas Woodhouse, and with a central committee dominated by those who only pushed supporters of establishment presidential candidates for the chairmanship and condoned David Lewis’ financial backstabbing of the party. They wanted to keep Lewis but get rid of Harnett. There is no room for conservatives with that bunch of establishment flunkies.

They could have offered someone with a background to bring people back together but instead chose to ram one of the most obnoxious establishment hacks in the party down our throats. Sadly, our candidates will suffer from this disgusting power play come November.

One can only hope. Where else is this happening?