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Month: August 2016

Voting turbulence ahead. Please fasten seat belts. by @BloggersRUs

Voting turbulence ahead. Please fasten seat belts.
by Tom Sullivan

UH NO, HERE.

Last Friday, the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the 4th Circuit struck down North Carolina’s omnibus 2013 voter suppression act as voter suppression. Last night, the same court rejected the state’s request for a stay. The ruling stands for the November elections. The state’s only recourse now is appeal for “emergency relief” to the U.S. Supreme Court.

The good news is voters will get an extra week added to the early voting period. The bad news is voters will get an extra week added to the early voting period:

Television spots aimed at educating voters about North Carolina’s voter ID law are being canceled. One million informational posters and push cards are outdated and most likely headed for the trash. Binders carefully created as election bibles for each of the state’s 2,700 precincts need a heavy edit, with no time to waste.

Election officials are scrambling to comply with last week’s federal appeals court ruling striking down North Carolina’s voter photo identification mandate and other restrictions Republicans approved three years ago.

Don’t get me wrong. I am thrilled that the monstrosity has been overturned. It’s just that the voters and Boards of Election across the state will once again be whipsawed by the decision.

I lived in NC-11 for 20 years. Redistricting in 2011 threw me into NC-10. That’s where I voted at the beginning of this year. But after a federal court in February threw out two congressional districts downstate as
racially gerrymandered, all 13 were redrawn. Now I’m back in NC-11, pending final court approval. Are you with me so far?

For months, when people asked (expecting me to know) about voting requirements for the fall — about dates, district lines, voter ID, out-of-precinct voting, same-day registration, etc. — my answer has been, “What day of the week is it?” I keep up with this stuff and can’t keep up with this stuff. November could be a rough ride:

Two days of training next week for election officials in all 100 counties also must be retooled. Counties already finalizing plans for 10 days of early voting now must develop plans to cover 17 days. Counties may have to spend more on staffing the extra days and precinct worker training, according to the North Carolina Association of County Commissioners.

[…]

Already this year, a federal court struck down North Carolina’s congressional boundaries, which had to be redrawn before separate primaries in June. Voters in Wake County, which includes Raleigh, still don’t know how local government elections will be carried out following a decision striking down district boundaries.

In their desire to double- and triple-bunk incumbent Democrats and to disenfranchise voting groups that tend to vote the wrong way, Republican lawmakers have turned putting on an election in North Carolina into an Olympic event. If staffs of local Boards of Elections can pull off this November’s election with a minimum of confusion, lines and errors, they deserve gold medals.

Trump and Tweety on nukes in March

Trump and Tweety on nukes

by digby

03/30/16

Matthews asked Trump about his contradictory statements, in which he said he was concerned about the spread of nuclear weapons, but then said countries including Japan, South Korea and Saudi Arabia should be able to acquire them.

‘Look, nuclear should be off the table, but would there a time when it could be used? Possibly,’ Trump responded.

Matthews asked how the United States could ‘conceivably use a nuclear weapon in the Middle East or in Europe in fighting ISIS’ and Trump said he would be ‘very, very slow and hesitant to pull that trigger’.

Matthews then asked Trump where specifically Trump would drop a nuclear weapon.

‘I was against Iraq. I’d be the last one to use the nuclear weapon,’ Trump said. ‘[But] I would never take any of my cards off the table.’

Matthews asked if Trump would ever use nuclear weapons in Europe.

‘I’m not going to take it off the table,’ Trump responded. Even when asked a second time to clarify, Trump responded with the same phrase. ‘I am not — I am not taking cards off the table.’

He should have asked Trump if he would ever use nuclear weapons on the United States. I suspect he’d have gotten the same answer.

Update: check this out from Greg Sargent:

QUESTION: Are you comfortable with Donald Trump possibly having control of the nuclear arsenal?

McCAIN: [Silence, followed by unintelligible stammering.] Anyone that the people of this country choose to be the commander in chief and the President of the United States — therefore can lead this country, and will lead in a responsible fashion. Anyone who is elected president fairly in this country. And that’s the way that our democratic system works.  That’s how our government works. The American people select the next president of the United States, knowing full well what the role of the commander in chief is. Therefore, I have the utmost respect for the verdict of the people.

White nationalism FTW

White nationalism FTW

by digby
Conservative intellectual Avik Roy offers an interesting critique that (correctly in my opinion) argues the GOP has been primarily a white nationalist party for a very long time. He is answering a series of posts offered by Ross Douthat on twitter arguing that this new which is why his name comes up through this passage.  Read the whole thing for context:

Ross argues that the GOP nominated “moderate-conservatives” in every non-Reagan election since Goldwater. This is conventional wisdom in certain sections of the conservative movement—it’s a line often repeated by Ted Cruz—and it’s also an important misunderstanding of what happened. Douthat and Cruz think of Dole as a “moderate” because he didn’t exert himself when it came to reducing government spending or cutting taxes. But that stuff didn’t matter to nationalist GOP voters, who admired Dole because of his heroism in World War II. Same for McCain and Vietnam; in 2008, McCain’s GOP convention theme was “Country Mitt Romney wasn’t the nationalists’ first choice, but his aggressive rhetoric about “self-deportation” brought the nationalists to his side in his fight against Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who had signed a bill granting in-state college tuition to illegal immigrants in Texas. 

Dole and McCain proved, long before Donald Trump, that GOP voters are much less ideologically conservative than intellectual conservatives would prefer. They won the GOP nod not because they were moderates, but because they appealed to the nationalist tendencies of white GOP voters. 

This is not to say that those nationalist tendencies are inherently bad—caring about the fate of one’s country is a fundamentally healthy instinct—but rather to point out that nationalism is not the same thing as “moderate-conservatism.” 

Conservatives have resisted the left’s allegation that the GOP is fundamentally racist, and rightly so. Most conservatives are people of good will who genuinely believe their views are color-blind. But they aren’t always. 

Let me put it this way: Did you spend more time in the last 12 months being offended by intrusions on the liberties of Christian cake bakers than you did being offended by intrusions on the liberties of black asthmatics? 

This is what I mean when I talk about a politics that isn’t racist but isn’t exactly color-blind either. The question conservatives have to ask themselves is: have they committed themselves, in their rhetoric and their policies and their daily lives, to making sure that every American—regardless of color or creed or national origin—benefits from the American way of life? 

The GOP has been in a white identity death spiral since 1964. Every year, the GOP’s overwhelmingly white majority tends to the grievances of the subpopulation of white voters who are angry, while ignoring the concerns of non-white voters, a tendency that drives away the few non-white Republicans try to who stick around. Over time, the only Republicans left are people who have no idea what non-white voters care about, because they spend so little time interacting with people who don’t look like them. 

Ross is right that the GOP failed its voters. And he’s right that the stagnant post–2007 economy plays a role in the anger of working-class whites. The economy, however, is not what GOP voters complain about on talk radio or on Fox News. Nor are GOP voters up in arms because Republicans failed to reform Medicare or cut capital gains taxes, or because they helped pass NAFTA. The economies of our inner cities have also been stagnant—for a much longer period—and there is a lot less gnashing of GOP teeth about that. 

The GOP failed in one area in particular: it failed to stem demographic and cultural changes that expanded the power of brown and black Americans (and immigrants and non-Christians) while the white working class was coming apart. 

Guys like House Speaker Paul Ryan support Donald Trump because they’re worried about the damage that Hillary Clinton could do if she’s elected. But they’re not sufficiently worried about the damage Donald Trump could do to the causes they care about. 

If you’re a white gun owner, I get it: you’re legitimately concerned that Hillary Clinton will appoint a liberal to the Supreme Court and gut the Second Amendment. But if you’re a black gun owner, you’re legitimately concerned that a President Donald Trump will put your life in danger, because Trump will be inclined to side with cops in every dispute between them and you. 

Paul Ryan spent much of 2013 and 2014 in urban communities, traveling with the great Bob Woodson and hearing the stories of black Americans trapped in poverty. Ryan has genuinely been trying to build a GOP that works for all Americans. 

But trust is hard to earn, and easy to destroy. 10 years from now, no one will remember that Paul Ryan did a listening tour in black communities. They will remember that he endorsed Donald Trump for President. Every day that Ryan remains in the Donald Trump camp is a day that further advances the GOP’s white identity death spiral. But most politicians can’t see beyond the next election. And that’s why the GOP’s long-term survival is an open question.

I think he’s right. If there’s one thing obvious to me it’s that the elaborate ideology of the conservative movement was always just a prop. It was the tribalism and dogwhistles that kept their coalition together. White nationalism is really all there is.

But consider his example here and how that plays out in the real world:

Did you spend more time in the last 12 months being offended by intrusions on the liberties of Christian cake bakers than you did being offended by intrusions on the liberties of black asthmatics? 

The Christian baker’s “intrusion on liberty” results in him being required to  make a cake for someone he believes should not be allowed to marry. The “intrusion on liberty” of the black asthmatic results in the black asthmatic being killed in the street by the authorities. There are “intrusions on liberty” and intrusions on liberty.

And also, you cannot discount the many people who believe that black asthmatic and others like him deserved what they got. Those people exist too.

.

The Donald tries to vote

The Donald tries to vote

by digby

Donald Trump’s Election Day Disaster – A Look Back (2004)

Back in 2004, Billy Bush followed Donald Trump as he was going to vote in New York City, but things turned sour very quickly when a mix-up occurred with The Donald’s polling location. Check out Billy trying to stay out of Trump’s way as The Donald gets more and more heated due to being turned away from the polls!


You just have to see it to believe it.

h/t to TS

“Lock her up” goes mainstream #teachingittothekids

“Lock her up” goes mainstream



by digby

This is really, really creepy:


A parade float featuring a Hillary Clinton lookalike wearing a prison jumpsuit and being pelted with water balloons left some in Arcadia, Iowa, laughing and others grumbling Saturday. 

The Clinton character was inside a cage hauled through town during a parade celebrating the centennial of the Arcadia Fire Department, according to photos published by the Daily Times Herald newspaper of nearby Carroll, Iowa. 

Clinton is the Democratic candidate for president and the first woman nominee of a major party. 

The Carroll paper reported that Kyle Julin of Manilla, Iowa, and two other area men, Josh Reetz and Adam Corky, built the float. Corky served as the Clinton impersonator. 

“Only one group booed us,” Julin told the Daily Times Herald. “My consensus from that was 99 percent to 1 percent liked it.” 

The Carroll paper’s story depicted a young boy running into the street, taking aim and hurling the balloon toward the float, and then walking away with “the prideful smile of a job well done.” 

Tim Tracy of rural Carroll, chairman of the Carroll County Democratic Central Committee, told The World-Herald that he found the float inappropriate. 

“It is “not appropriate to be handing water balloons to little children and inviting them to throw” them at such a display, Tracy said. “I’m sure there are some that wondered, ‘Why is that lady in a cage? Why are they being mean? Why are they throwing water balloons at her?’ ”
Julin estimated that his group handed out about 400 water balloons during the parade. 

As for those who might take offense, “I mean if they do, they do,” Julin said. “We believe if Hillary gets in, it’ll be bad for moving our political agenda forward. … Also, it wasn’t just kids, there were a bunch of adults grabbing water balloons and cheering.” 

Craig Williams, chairman of the Carroll County Republicans, said the local GOP had nothing to do with the float but did publish photos of it on Facebook.

I’m sure I don’t have to remind anyone that the idea of putting women in a cart and running her all over town to be demeaned and humiliated is nothing new. That’s what they did to witches and prostitutes for centuries:
This is how the little girls who saw that will remember how they treated the first woman nominee for president.
You may think it’s trivial and silly to worry about this. It’s not. Women and girls may not consciously know the significance of these archetypal misogynist behaviors, but they feel it. 
.

A tag team partner for Trump? by @BloggersRUs

A tag team partner for Trump?
by Tom Sullivan

Should Reince Priebus’ apoplexy over Donald Trump turn into a cage match pitting the Republican presidential candidate against the rest of his party, former WrestleMania star Trump may need a tag team partner. This guy sounds perfect:

Current WWE wrestler Rhyno won Tuesday’s Republican primary for a seat in the Michigan House of Representatives, beating his closest competitor by just 54 votes.

Terrance “Rhyno” Gerin may first have to get by his Democratic opponent. Health care consultant Abdullah Hammoud won his House District 15 primary in a landslide in a six-way race after anonymous robocalls attacked his identity.

In Michigan House District 53 (Ann Arbor), Washtenaw County Commissioner Yousef Rabhi won his primary by a “huge margin.” Both Hammoud and Rabhi are expected to win in districts favoring Democrats.

Neither of these races says much about Trump’s run for president on anti-Muslim rhetoric after attacking the family of a fallen American Muslin soldier. But the notion that he will get much traction among struggling workers in the American Rust Belt was called into question by recent Michigan polling that shows Hillary Clinton with a 9-point lead there:

The poll contains many troubling signs for Trump’s White House campaign, including a “shocking” lead for Clinton in the Republican strongholds of west and southwest Michigan, pollster Richard Czuba said.

Sixty-one percent of likely general election voters said Trump is ill-prepared to be the nation’s commander-in-chief. The figure grows to 67 percent among women, a group with whom Trump performs poorly. Clinton has a commanding 21-percentage-point lead among female voters.

“He’s sitting in the cellar right now, and they’re going to have to do something to dramatically turn this around,” said Czuba, president of the Glengariff Group Inc. polling firm. “If I were a Republican running on this ticket right now, I’d be beyond nervous.”

Maybe an intervention? Good luck with that.

Gender gap stats

Gender gap stats

by digby

With the news that high level GOP women are openly supporting Clinton, this Pew Poll info from before the convention is pertinent:

According to a Pew Research Center survey conducted June 15-26 (before the Republican and Democratic conventions), there is a 16-point gender gap in general election support for Clinton. Overall, 59% of women voters say they would support Clinton over Trump, compared with 43% of men. 

Other recent national polls also have found a double-digit gap between men and women in their support for Clinton. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey fielded July 9-13 found women registered voters were 13 points more likely than men to back Clinton over Trump in a head-to-head contest. A CBS News poll conducted last week (July 22-24) has women registered voters 11 points more likely than men to support Clinton. 

More than three months before Election Day, the presidential contest is fluid. It remains to be seen whether the gender gap this fall will be on par with other recent elections, or whether men and women will be further apart in their preferences than in any of the last 11 presidential elections. 

The June Pew Research Center survey shows the gender gap in presidential candidate preference can be seen across demographic groups. For example, among those ages 18-34, there is an 18-point gap in support for Clinton between women (69%) and men (51%). Among those ages 65 and older – a group that overall supports Clinton at lower rates than younger adults – there is a 13-point gap between the share of women (52%) and men (39%) who favor the Democratic candidate.
Differences between men and women also are seen in their views of the two 2016 candidates’ personal traits and characteristics. 

More women (53%) than men (42%) say Clinton understands the needs of people like them very or fairly well. Four years ago, there was a similar 10-point gap between the share of men and women who said that Democratic candidate Barack Obama understood their needs (53% of men, compared with 63% of women). 

In the Center’s current survey, men were 15 points more likely than women to say Trump understands their needs (44% vs. 29%); in 2012, there was a smaller 6-point gap between the share of men (47%) and women (41%) who said the Republican candidate Mitt Romney understood their needs. 

When it comes to which candidate is better described by the phrase “would use good judgment in a crisis,” 46% of men say Clinton is better described this way, compared with 60% of women. This 14-point gap is larger than the gender difference in views of Obama on this dimension in 2012. Four years ago, 46% of men and 52% of women said Obama was the candidate better described by the phrase “would use good judgment in a crisis.”