Month: April 2018

Another worry for the future

by digby

The online survey of more than 16,000 registered voters ages 18 to 34 shows their support for Democrats over Republicans for Congress slipped by about 9 percentage points over the past two years, to 46 percent overall. And they increasingly say the Republican Party is a better steward of the economy.

Although nearly two of three young voters polled said they do not like Republican President Donald Trump, their distaste for him does not necessarily extend to all Republicans or translate directly into votes for Democratic congressional candidates.

That presents a potential problem for Democrats who have come to count on millennials as a core constituency – and will need all the loyalty they can get to achieve a net gain of 23 seats to capture control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November.

They know nothing about the economy other than that Donald fucking Trump is allowed to take credit for the recovery from the deepest recession in decades that happened under George fucking Bush.

Someone could teach them this is school but then they’d be fired for being partisan.

I really hope this is wrong but it’s probably right. Trump himself is a toxic mess. But GOPers who adopt his brash, reality show style without the overt racism could probably find some success with young people who are positive about the economy under Republican rule. It happened in the 80s.

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Yes,the autobahn was awesome. But there was a hell of a flip side.

by digby

Via Wikipedia:

The Reichsautobahn system was the beginning of the German autobahns under the Third Reich. There had been previous plans for controlled-access highways in Germany under the Weimar Republic, and two had been built, but long-distance highways had not been successfully built. After previously opposing plans for a highway network, the Nazis embraced them after coming to power and presented the project as Hitler’s own idea. They were termed “Adolf Hitler’s roads” (German: die Straßen Adolf Hitlers) and presented as a major contribution to the reduction of unemployment. Other reasons for the project included: enabling Germans to explore and appreciate their country, and there was a strong aesthetic element to the execution of the project under the Third Reich; military applications, although to a lesser extent than has often been thought; a permanent monument to the Third Reich, often compared to the pyramids; and general promotion of motoring as a modernization that in itself had military applications.

I’d just like everyone to think about that as you read this story about whether or not to give Trump credit for things like the possible North and South Korean diplomatic thaw and low unemployment, which the author calls “quiet achievements”

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The yin of Donald Trump is the one he presents publicly: The president who is routinely dishonest, dishonorable, immature, erratic, reckless, spoiled and threatening to our legal and governmental institutions and norms. The yin is what his fiercest critics point to and say, “I was right all along.”

The yang of Donald Trump gets less attention, mostly for no one’s fault other than his own. It is the president who seems to get just enough policy victories and international leverage to keep his fiercest supporters crowing that, in fact, they were the ones who were right. “Take that Never Trumpers.”

Both his critics and supporters don’t like accepting that the flip side to Trump exists. But the duality is real and it’s important that each side acknowledge its existence.

[…]
So, is the yang worth the yin?

Is the tradeoff worth the damage he may cause long term to our politics or our institutions? Is the exhaustion of following his Fox & Friends-induced stream of consciousness for three more years… or seven… worth some quieter results? His supporters, or those who have simply accepted the situation for what it is, said yes a long time ago. There are moments like the Korea summit where his harshest critics should wrestle with the question again.

In the meantime, partisans are constantly harping about wishing a president to succeed even when they disagree with them. Perhaps we just need to wish for Donald Trump to succeed where he can, hope to be surprised more often, and give him credit when it is deserved.

But don’t forget the yin either.

It’s true that autobahn was a wonderful, job creating monument to Germany’s greatness so let’s give Hitler credit when it’s deserved.

But don’t forget about the holocaust either.

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Good work press corps

by digby

All of their stupid handwringing over the Michelle Wolf routine on Saturday in order to “uphold standards” is just sickening sycophancy for a depraved political faction.

These people are working on a different dimension:

In April 2018, Comedian Michelle Wolf became the target of a smear campaign after she offered numerous pointed jabs at members of the Trump administration, news media figures, and politicians at the annual White House Correspondents Dinner.

Fake news articles were published falsely claiming that Wolf had been fired from her job at Comedy Central and that her stand-up special had been cancelled by Hulu. We also came across an image of purported newspaper clipping from July 2015 reported that Wolf had pled guilty to bestiality charges.

It is from a clip generating app (which you can see at the Snopes site) and is being shared widely on right wing social media.

Seriously, these people are grotesque monsters. That the press corps believes Wolf’s comedy is out of line just shows that they are still missing the story.

Still.

After all these years.

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Trump’s savvy playground negotiating style


by digby

I guess the Trump administration thinks Kim Jong Un is as dumb as Trump because they are “negotiating” with him to give up his nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions at the same time that they are swaggering around insisting they are going to tear up the Iran deal that was based on exactly those terms. And they must think he’s unaware of US past behavior when we deposed Iraq’s leader after he had given up his weapons and attacked Libya’s leader after he gave up his. There were different reasons for both of those attacks but the pattern must look pretty obvious to Kim.

Still he’s never dealt with a man with hands the size of Trump’s so all bets are off.

I guess.

Here’s Axios on Trump’s masterful negotiating “style.” It’s lucky he was born with money or he would have been nothing more than a cheap street hustler selling stolen watches on a street corner:

President Trump tells people he keeps the world guessing with his wild unpredictability. But those who work most closely with him say he’s a one-trick pony in negotiations.

The trick: Threaten the outrageous, ratchet up the tension, amplify it with tweets and taunts, and then compromise on fairly conventional middle ground.

​“His ultimate gamble is: ‘You don’t have as big of stones as I do,'” a source close to Trump told me. “‘You’re going to feel too uncomfortable where I go. The stakes are too high. This is too far outside your comfort zone.'”

Consider these threats: To withdraw from Syria (he reengaged with missile strikes), withdraw from Afghanistan (he settled on the more-of-the-same strategy recommended by his generals), withdraw from the U.S.-Korean trade deal (Trump’s team negotiated with the Koreans and announced modest changes to the deal), veto the government spending bill (he signed it), and impose severe worldwide tariffs on steel and aluminum (he offered a bunch of exemptions).

Sources who’ve been in the room with Trump for negotiations over NATO and various trade deals tell me they’ve at times felt “awkward” watching Trump go in hard against foreign leaders. 

They say Trump seems immune to awkwardness — but then rarely follows through on his most extreme rhetoric.

The next few weeks promise three more Trump tricks: 

After sending financial markets into a mass freakout over a trade war with China — which culminated in Trump’s threatening China with $100 billion in tariffs — some senior officials, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, are cautiously optimistic they’ll find a compromise with Beijing. On Tuesday night, Mnuchin leads a delegation to China to try to negotiate a way out of the trade war.

Senior White House officials tell me a NAFTA deal could be “imminent” — meaning, an announcement could come in the next few days. Trump’s team is still negotiating and views Canada as a major problem, but we’re a far cry from a year ago when Trump’s aides were telling us he was hellbent on terminating NAFTA. 

Last August, the world braced for nuclear apocalypse as Trump threatened “fire and fury” against North Korea. And less than four months ago, Trump tweeted that his nuclear button is “much bigger & more powerful” than Kim Jong-un’s. Now, we’re anticipating peace talks on the Korean Peninsula.

He’s so dreamy. He talks tough and gets results and nobody needs to worry that it’s going to get out of control. He’s got this.

Can you feel the Villagers getting excited?

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The WHCD Kabuki theater should end its run


by digby

My Salon column this morning:

The annual “nerd prom,” otherwise known as the White House Correspondents’ Dinner (WHCD), was Saturday night. If we are lucky, it will be the last one. The entire event is inappropriate, and it has nothing to do with comedians being rude to the people in the audience or on the dais. After all, they are hired to do that. The whole tired ritual is based on the old tradition of the comedy “roast,” where people get up and insult the guest of honor, which in the case of the correspondents’ dinner, is the president and the D.C. establishment, including the press.

No, the event is inappropriate because it’s an obnoxious suck-up to power, no matter who the president is or how edgy the comedian. The press and the politicians lining up on red carpets with Hollywood celebrities and yukking it up together, as if politics and government were just one big performance and this was their awards show, has always been an excellent illustration of everything that’s wrong with our civic life. But in the age of Trump it’s become downright decadent and disturbing.

This year’s dinner seems to have hit quite a nerve. Comedian Michelle Wolf’s comedy stylings were not appreciated by the press corps or the administration. She called the president and the White House staff liars, which is true, and pointed out that the media benefits from this surreal circus, which is also true. This bound both together in a way that clearly made everyone extremely uncomfortable, as it was meant to.

So now we have much clutching of pearls and rending of garments among members of the press, demanding apologies from Wolf for allegedly insulting Sarah Huckabee Sanders’ looks (which Wolf did not do) and for comparing her to Aunt Lydia in “The Handmaid’s Tale,” which is as spot-on as you can get. (As New Yorker TV critic Emily Nussbaum pointed out on Twitter, “her job is *exactly* like Aunt Lydia: she is the frowning female enforcer for a fascist patriarchal society, punishing those who resist her lies.”)

Anyway, Sanders has no right to be upset by any rude insults when she serves as an apologist for this man:

I heard poorly rated @Morning_Joe speaks badly of me (don’t watch anymore). Then how come low I.Q. Crazy Mika, along with Psycho Joe, came..

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 29, 2017

…to Mar-a-Lago 3 nights in a row around New Year’s Eve, and insisted on joining me. She was bleeding badly from a face-lift. I said no!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 29, 2017

Wolf’s jokes were sharp, to be sure, but they were nothing like that. I’m sure no one needs to be reminded of the president’s daily assaults on the press and his political rivals, or anyone else who angers him. So the Trump administration calling for smelling salts over this routine is the biggest laugh line of the night.

Here’s a typical example of the Beltway handwringing on Sunday morning.

Apology is owed to @PressSec and others grossly insulted ny Michelle Wolf at White House Correspondents Assoc dinner which started with uplifting heartfelt speech by @margarettalev  – comedian was worst since Imus insulted Clinton’s

— Andrea Mitchell (@mitchellreports) April 29, 2018

This is also part of the tiresome ritual, which seems to work itself into a full blown hissy-fit every few years. Mitchell is referring to the Radio and Television Correspondents’ Dinner in 1996 where the comedian for the night was radio personality Don Imus, who rudely referenced the president’s infidelities in front of Hillary Clinton and said that the Clinton administration’s diverse cabinet looked like “the scene out of Star Wars.” Hillary glared and Bill covered his face and everyone was very upset. The correspondents’ association even sent the president and first lady an apology.

But here’s the thing. Clinton regularly appeared with Imus during his campaigns, and the longtime shock jock was even credited with putting Clinton on the map back in 1992. Imus’ show featured a regular parody song about Hillary Clinton with lyrics about how she “fornicates,” “menstruates” and “urinates,” with the refrain: “That’s why the First Lady is a tramp.” He called the president a “fat pantload” and a “lying weasel.” It didn’t stop Bill from calling in and kibitzing with the guy.

Don Imus was a reprehensible racist and misogynist. Yet politicians of both parties lined up to be on his show. And it wasn’t just them. For years after his allegedly despicable performance at that dinner, members of the political press corps kept on appearing with him. It wasn’t until 2007, when Imus described the Rutgers women’s basketball team as “nappy-headed hoes,” that he was finally forced off the air, if only temporarily. (Which made many of his media pals very sad.)

The last time the D.C. establishment had a full WHCD meltdown, it was over the appearance of Stephen Colbert in 2006, who performed as his Bill O’Reilly-esque character from Comedy Central and skewered the attendees to the bone over the sycophantic relationship between the media and the George W. Bush administration. That performance is legendary today, but at the time ,everyone in Washington was appalled. Again.

As Wikipedia reminds me, Washington Post columnist Richard Cohen called Colbert “rude” and a “bully.” Rep. Steny Hoyer, D-Md., House Democratic whip at the time, told the Hill that Bush was “the President of the United States, and he deserves some respect.” Right-wing operative Mary Matalin called Colbert’s performance a “predictable, Bush-bashing kind of humor” and columnist Ana Marie Cox said that Colbert was no hero and sagely observed that “comedy can have a political point but it is not political action.”

Colbert’s routine was savage toward the press, but in subsequent years they all couldn’t wait to get booked for interviews on his show.

Now we have the press corps calling for the fainting couch over Michelle Wolf’s comedy act in what appears to be a once-a-decade bonding exercise between the media and the administration. Journalists are defending the White House against the rude depredations of Big Comedy, while the Trump administration pretends that it and the Washington press corps are victims of the coarsening of our patriotic institutions.

Needless to say, this has never been more fatuous than it is right now. While journalists, celebrities and politicians all preened on the red carpet, President Trump was in Michigan calling the press fake, dishonest and despicable, as usual. His worked-up followers stood in front of the media and also preened for the cameras, calling them “degenerate filth.”

This Trump supporter repeatedly yelled at the press, calling media “degenerate filth” and to get out of his country after the Michigan rally concluded pic.twitter.com/hbd8vhpVYc

— Brianna Sacks (@bri_sacks) April 29, 2018

If anyone thinks that comedians pulling their punches at black-tie Washington events will do anything to change this dynamic, they are fooling themselves.

The White House Correspondents’ Dinner is a kabuki dance performed by people who want to pretend that sharing one night where they can all dress up in fancy clothes and enjoy their mutual fame is desirable and useful to the government and the system. Every decade or so they also need to pretend to be offended on each others’ part when the comedian they hire to roast themselves “takes it too far” by pointing out what a farce it all is:

If Donald Trump does one good thing during his misbegotten presidency, perhaps it will be to put an end to this charade once and for all.

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And the pig likes it
by Tom Sullivan

Can you say self-absorbed? Michelle Wolf’s White House Correspondents’ Association dinner act Saturday night stuck a pin in the press corps’ self-importance. Rather than a loud pop, the result has been a long, high-pitched whine as the air escapes. Worse, Wolf upstaged Trump’s Saturday night performance outside Detroit, as did the Trumper shouting “degenerate filth” at the press pen. While the WHCA sucked up to the White House, Wolf put them down. The Beltway has a sad.

Hey mags! All these jokes were about her despicable behavior. Sounds like you have some thoughts about her looks though? 😘 https://t.co/JRzzvhBuey— Michelle Wolf (@michelleisawolf) April 29, 2018

“In a normal environment,” writes E.J. Dionne, “the Republican Congress’s assault on food-stamp recipients, the administration’s waivers allowing states to erode Medicaid coverage, and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson’s proposed rent increases for some of the country’s poorest people would be front and center in the news.”

Wolf pointedly observed the press is part of why they are not. So the press had a fit over jokes about Sarah Huckabee Sanders, demonstrating how Trump’s talent for diversion is rubbing off. It’s what comes from becoming too chummy. As the adage says, “… and the pig likes it.” (Though probably not.)

Dionne continues:

Nothing is significant for long, everything is episodic, and old scandals are regularly knocked out of the headlines by new ones. It’s a truly novel approach to damage control.

Dionne is not addressing the national press, but speaking about how the “profound swampiness” of the current administration is eroding confidence in liberal democracy. The self-absorption of a national media with the Trump reality show and its being coopted as extras is not helping.

A weekend news program guest observed that politicians talk more than they do something about problems their constituents face. Mental health care was the topic, but the criticism applies to a host of issues more important than hurt feelings and civility debates inside the Beltway. To put a punctuation mark to that point, Axios quotes Republican Study Committee Chairman Mark Walker:

“We need some more wins, first of all because that’s the right thing to do, second of all, because it’s politically expedient to our base to turn out in the fall, to make sure they see us being active and following through on this stuff.”

They need accomplishments to talk about on the campaign trail, but cannot agree on what they should be.

“People want to know what you will do; they don’t want you constantly saying ‘You’re welcome’ for being functional long enough to pass tax reform. Especially when tax reform isn’t overwhelmingly popular,” a senior GOP House aide told me.

Neither is much else in D.C. Peering over the perimeter of I-495, it’s easy to see why.

* * * * * * * *

For The Win 2018 is ready for download. Request a copy of my county-level election mechanics primer at tom.bluecentury at gmail.

Russians, Russians everywhere …

by digby

Not that there’s anything wrong with that generally, just that when it comes to Donald Trump and his associates it takes on a bit of a different hue.

I have no idea what this means, but it’s interesting. Apparently, Cohen’s businesses are all mixed up with Russians of various types. It’s unknown if this has anything to do with the Russia investigation, but it’s yet another dot to be connected….

A Russian mixed martial arts fighter who has connections with President Donald Trump, the president’s personal attorney Michael Cohen and Russian President Vladimir Putin was questioned this week by the FBI, his manager confirmed Saturday.

Fedor Emelianenko was questioned by agents who met him in his hotel room on Tuesday, manager Jerry Millen said before Emelianenko’s Bellator MMA heavyweight fight against Frank Mir. Millen declined to detail his client’s conversations with the agents.

“The FBI came to the hotel looking to talk to Fedor and they were very nice, came in to speak with Fedor for a few minutes, spoke to me, very cool guys, and that’s all I can really say about it. Again, the FBI did come to the hotel, they found us, knocked on the door,” Millen said.

“Hundred percent, kind of surprised,” Millen added. “They were very nice, very professional.”

The agents were in attendance at Saturday’s fight, Millen said.

Putin has attended Emelianenko’s fights, and the 41-year-old fighter has been photographed with the Russian president. His connection with Trump dates back to 2008, when he was signed by Affliction Entertainment, a fight league in which Trump had an ownership stake. Trump announced a joint venture involving MMA and Emelianenko at a news conference on June 5, 2008.

Affliction ended up folding for financial reasons after two events, both headlined by Emelianenko.

Cohen was the league’s chief operating officer. Two weeks ago, the FBI raided Cohen’s New York offices, hotel and home, seeking information about a nondisclosure agreement he brokered with porn star Stormy Daniels days before the 2016 election. Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, has said she had an affair with Trump in 2006.

That whole thing seems weird even for Trump. Two headline events only? I know he’s the world’s worst business man, but that seems bad, even for him.

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Veiled threats from Trump? That would be so unlike him.

by digby

Trump said this last night as his Nuremberg rally:

“Tester started throwing out things that he’s heard. Well I know things about Tester that I could say too. And if I said them, he’d never be elected again.”

Or this from just the other day:

“The U.S. has put together a STRONG bid w/ Canada & Mexico for the 2026 World Cup. It would be a shame if countries that we always support were to lobby against the U.S. bid. Why should we be supporting these countries when they don’t support us (including at the United Nations)?”

This piece by Ryan Goodman in Just Security about evidence of obstruction of justice that came out of the House Intelligence Committee’s minority report is  worth reading. He issues all the important disclaimers and caveats about what we know and don’t know and the partisanship of the exercise yadda, yadda yadda.

And then:

The Minority report contains information that adds to the substantive allegations of obstruction, and also to the range of corroborating evidence.

One of the most important revelations is that the FBI General Counsel and FBI Director’s chief of staff listened in on James Comey’s side of at least some phone conversations with the president, in which Mr. Trump reportedly engaged in efforts to alter the course of the Russia investigation. As the Minority report states, “(Jim) Rybicki and Baker also heard Comey’s side of phone conversations with the President, in real time.” It is, however, not clear which particular phone conversations with the president they were able to hear in this manner. Comey testified to Congress that he had six separate phone conversations with Trump.

Both the FBI Director and Deputy Director interpreted one of the president’s phone calls as threatening Comey if he did not lift the cloud of the Russia investigation. In a phone conversation on April 11, Trump said he wanted Comey to lift the cloud, “because I have been very loyal to you, very loyal; we had that thing you know,” according to Comey’s written testimony and contemporaneous memo. But why would the president refer to his loyalty to Comey rather than Comey’s “honest loyalty” to the president?

McCabe testified that the FBI Director and he “weren’t 100 percent sure what that was” but interpreted it as “a veiled threat.” Rep. Adam Schiff (D.-Calif) asked McCabe to clarify:

SCHIFF: And in this case the veiled threat would be against Director Comey?

MCCABE: That’s correct.

SCHIFF: Along the lines of, I the President have been very loyal to you. I want you to lift the cloud.  Otherwise I might be less loyal to you.  Is that the—

MCCABE: That’s correct.

SCHIFF: That was the impression of Director Comey?

MCCABE: It was his and my impression

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Second, the FBI Director and Deputy Director were also concerned that the president was threatening to take action against McCabe if the FBI Director did not lift the cloud of the Russia investigation. According to Comey’s testimony and contemporaneous memos, Mr. Trump repeatedly brought up McCabe in these conversations about the Russia investigation. McCabe testified that he and Comey were concerned that the president “was bringing it up as some sort of an almost a veiled threat.”

Rep. Schiff once again asked McCabe to clarify:

SCHIFF: That if the Director didn’t lift the cloud of the Russian investigation, that he would take action against you?

MCCABE: That’s correct. That was my concern, and as I understand it, that was Director Comey’s concern as well. 

Other observations in the Minority report and in McCabe’s testimony are perhaps less significant on their own, but also add to the case of obstruction and abuse of power. It is readily apparent that McCabe’s testimony very closely tracks Comey’s congressional testimony. McCabe testified, for example, that the FBI Director debriefed senior FBI leadership following encounters with the president and that McCabe and others shared Comey’s views of the inappropriateness of the president’s actions. McCabe corroborated that in February 2017 Comey, following his meeting with the president in the Oval Office, informed his senior FBI leadership that “the President was asking him to end an investigative matter.” The president’s subsequent phone calls to the FBI Director were even broader. “Comey’s impression was that the President was still quite frustrated with the fact that we were continuing our investigative efforts into the — into the campaign and Russia issues,” he told the Committee.

The Minority report ends with a remarkable statement: it ties the specific timing of McCabe’s testimony to Mr. Trump’s going after not only McCabe but also the FBI’s General Counsel. Recall that the General Counsel was present during McCabe’s testimony, was cited as a witness by McCabe for important events, and he was also then told by the Committee that he may be called as a witness. Mr. Trump’s tweets followed within days. The report states:

Only three days after McCabe’s testimony before the Committee, for which then-FBI General Counsel James Baker was present and during which the Majority indicated that they might also call him in as a witness, the President tweeted: “Wow, ‘FBI lawyer James Baker reassigned,’ according to @FoxNews”.  Trump turned his sights on McCabe later the same afternoon.

Whether such efforts by the president could be a form of witness tampering is a matter that has been discussed before at Just Security and elsewhere. If what inspired Trump was that he had been specifically informed of McCabe’s congressional testimony and the connection to the FBI General Counsel as a potential witness, it would be alarming. That said, there are other plausible explanations for the timing of Trump’s tweets that Saturday. Also within days before the president’s tweets, news outlets had raised different questions about the FBI General Counsel that could have inspired the president as well. Still, this all leaves obvious questions to be asked about the Committee’s possible communications with the White House and about Trump’s motivations. The Minority report appropriately points in the direction of those questions.

Destroying the credibility of these top DOJ officials looks very important in light of this.

I’m cynical about our institution’s ability to deal with people who are this boldly corrupt, but I guess we’ll see. I certainly have heard no innocent explanations for this behavior that make any sense.

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Politics and Reality Radio: Study: Trump Has Made White People More Hateful | Digby on the Conservative Cult of Victimhood

with Joshua Holland

Give us an inch and we’ll take the entire world

by digby

Can someone explain to me what the strategy for “denuclearization”  of North Korea is in light of this?

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrived in Saudi Arabia on Saturday on a hastily-arranged visit to the Middle East as the United States aims to muster support for new sanctions against Iran. 

The visit to Riyadh, Jerusalem and Amman just two days after Pompeo was sworn-in comes as President Donald Trump is set to decide whether to pull out of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran that is still supported by European powers. 

“We are urging nations around the world to sanction any individuals and entities associated with Iran’s missile program, and it has also been a big part of discussions with Europeans,” Brian Hook, a senior policy advisor traveling with Pompeo, told reporters. 

Hook said a salvo of ballistic missiles fired into Saudi Arabia by Yemen’s Iran-allied Houthi movement that killed a man earlier on Saturday had been provided by Tehran.
“Iran’s missiles prolong war and suffering in the Middle East, they threaten our security and economic interests and they especially threaten Saudi Arabia and Israel,” he said.
The 2015 deal that limits Iran’s nuclear program in return for sanctions relief does not cover its missile program.

Why would you push more sanctions on Iran when it’s complying with the deal it made to stop its nuclear program? What kind of message is that sending, exactly? Do what we want and we’ll just keep demanding more and hitting you harder economically?

But hey, Donald Trump is the greatest negotiator in the world, already being feted as the new Gandhi by people in the media so what do I know? Maybe logic has been overrated this whole time.