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Month: July 2018

Straight-up outright corruption and nobody cares

Straight-up outright corruption and nobody cares

by digby

When I think about the shrieking wingnut outrage about Clinton speaking on the phone with some people who gave money to the family charity I feel as if my head is going to explode. The president and all of his cronies are blatantly and openly corrupt and yet unless it is so overwhelming in dozens of different ways and is relentless chronicled in the press as it was with Pruitt, nobody gives a damn.

Get a load of this:

Rudolph W. Giuliani continues to work on behalf of foreign clients both personally and through his namesake security firm while serving as President Trump’s personal attorney — an arrangement experts say raises conflict of interest concerns and could run afoul of federal ethics laws.

Giuliani said in recent interviews with The Washington Post that he is working with clients in Brazil and Colombia, among other countries, as well as delivering paid speeches for a controversial Iranian dissident group. He has never registered with the Justice Department on behalf of his overseas clients, asserting it is not necessary because he does not directly lobby the U.S. government and is not charging Trump for his services.

His decision to continue representing foreign entities also departs from standard practice for presidential attorneys, who in the past have generally sought to sever any ties that could create conflicts with their client in the White House.

Well ok then. There’s nothing at all suspicious about working pro-bono for the president of the United States while taking money from foreign governments. Who could object to that? He says he isn’t lobbying so that’s all we need to know.

Lookee here:

Standard disclaimer for the kids: this isn’t normal. It isn’t normal at all.

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The Trump collusion timeline

The Trump collusion timeline

by digby

Just Security has put together a nice timeline of Trump’s interactions with the Russian government since he was elected. It’s quite interesting when you look at it all together. It’s certainly fine to propose a fresh start with relations between the two countries. But they seemed to have a much more specific agenda from thevery beginning.

I’ve just excerpted the first six months after the election:

Nov. 14, 2016 — In their first official phone call, President-elect Trump and Putin agree on the “absolutely unsatisfactory state of bilateral relations” between Russia and the U.S., according to the New York Times. The two leaders agreed to meet at some point in the future and “endorse” the idea of taking efforts “to normalize relations and pursue constructive cooperation on the broadest possible range of issues.”

Nov. 18, 2016 — President-elect Trump names retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn as his national security advisor, stirring controversy in part because of Flynn’s ties to Russia, according to the Washington Post. In 2015, Flynn accepted payment from RT — a Russian news channel that had become a propaganda arm — to attend the station’s gala event in Moscow. Putin also attended the gala, and RT later published photos of the two dining next to each other.

Dec. 1 or 2, 2016 — Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak meets with former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn and Trump Senior Advisor Jared Kushner in Trump Tower. The meeting is not disclosed to the public until March 2017. The White House first states that its purpose was to “establish a line of communication.” Kislyak later reports to superiors in Moscow that, in the meeting, Kushner suggested setting up a secure channel between the Trump transition team and the Kremlin, to be hosted at the Russian embassy or consulate, according to the Washington Post.

Dec. 12, 2016 — President-elect Trump officially nominates Rex Tillerson as secretary of state, spurring controversy because of Tillerson’s close relationship with Russia. As CEO of Exxon Mobil, Tillerson had engaged in joint ventures with Rosneft, a state-backed Russian oil company, and had received the Order of Friendship from Russia in 2013, according to the New York Times.

Dec. 13, 2016 — Senior Trump Advisor Jared Kushner meets with Sergey Gorkov, then-chairman of Russia’s government-owned Vnesheconombank (VEB) and a close ally of Putin, at Russian Ambassador Kislyak’s request. The bank was placed on the sanctions list following Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. In June 2017, the Washington Post reports that VEB says the meeting was conducted in relation to Kushner’s family real estate business. However, the Trump White House later maintains it was a diplomatic meeting in which Kushner was acting in his role as soon-to-be presidential adviser. Kushner testifies on July 24, 2017 to the Senate and House Intelligence Committees that Kislyak had recommended the meeting because Gorkov “had a direct relationship with” Putin. Kushner said they discussed the general poor state of US-Russian relations but that they didn’t touch on any specific policies nor on Obama-era sanctions against Russia. “At no time was there any discussion about my companies, business transactions, real estate projects, loans, banking arrangements or any private business of any kind.”

Dec. 29, 2016 — Shortly after the White House notifies Russia of sanctions that the Obama administration will impose for election interference, Michael Flynn speaks with Russian Ambassador Kislyak. During the phone call, Flynn discusses the sanctions. According to several current and former officials who read transcripts of the call, Flynn told Kislyak that Russia should not overreact to impending sanctions for election interference because the Trump administration would be in a position to revisit the sanctions and change policy toward Russia, according to the Washington Post. Nearly one year later, Flynn pleads guilty to lying to investigators regarding his conversations with the Russian ambassador.

Dec. 29, 2016 — Within four hours of the Obama White House’s announced sanctions against Russia for election interference, Trump issues a written statement in response saying, “It’s time for our country to move on to bigger and better things.”

Dec. 30, 2016 — Following Russia’s surprise turnaround decision not to respond to the U.S. sanctions in-kind, Trump tweets: “Great move on delay (by V. Putin) – I always knew he was very smart!” Putin’s decision came as a surprise in part because Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had earlier said in televised remarks, “Of course, we cannot leave these sanctions unanswered … Reciprocity is the law of diplomacy and international relations.”

Jan. 3-4, 2017 — In a series of tweets, Trump disparages the intelligence from U.S. agencies scheduled to brief him on their findings that Russia interfered in the 2016 election.

Jan. 6, 2017 – May 9, 2017 — Jan. 6 is the date then-FBI Director James Comey helped brief Trump on Russian election interference, and May 9 was his final day as FBI Director. In his testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee, Comey is asked (by Senator Joe Manchin) whether Trump showed “any concern or interest or curiosity about what the Russians were doing.” Comey responds that he does not recall any conversations with Trump about Russian election interference during the former FBI Director’s time in office. Comey is also asked (by Senator Martin Heinrich), “Did the President in any of those interactions that you’ve shared with us today ask you what you should be doing or what our government should be doing — or the intelligence community — to protect America against Russian interference in our election system?” Comey says he does not recall any conversation like that–“never.”

Jan. 6-7, 2017 — After the briefing by intelligence officials, Trump acknowledgesthat the Russian government may have been involved in the hacking of Democratic National Committee computers, but says it didn’t affect the outcome of the election because Russia didn’t gain access to voting systems, and says he wants to improve relations with Russia.

Jan. 11, 2017 — George Nader, a Lebanese-American fixer and advisor to the United Arab Emirates, convenes a secret meeting in the Seychelles at the “behest” of UAE Crown Prince Mohammed, according to the New York Times. The meeting is between Erik Prince, the founder of Blackwater and a Trump supporter (and brother of Betsy DeVos, Trump’s then-nominee to be secretary of education), and Kirill Dmitriev, a Russian wealth fund manager with ties to President Putin. The apparent purpose of the meeting is to test Russia’s commitment to Iran and to set up a communication channel between President-elect Trump and Moscow, according to the Washington Post.

Prince testifies before Congress in November that the meeting with Dmitriev was a “chance-encounter,” and that he traveled to the Seychelles to pursue a “business opportunity” with potential customers from the UAE, who had suggested that he meet with a Russian businessman staying at the same hotel, Vox reports. However, according to reporting by ABC News and the Washington Post, Special Counsel Robert Mueller reportedly has new evidence and a cooperating witness in Nader, who is allegedly testifying that the meeting was preplanned to set up communications between the Trump transition team and Moscow so that they could “discuss future relations between the countries.” The New York Times also reports that Kirill Dmitriev had met Trump associate Anthony Scaramucci at the 2017 Davos forum, after which Scaramucci criticized the Obama administration sanctions on Russia with a TASS reporter.

Jan. 11, 2017 — At a news conference, Trump says, “I think it was Russia” that hacked the 2016 U.S. election, but then diminishes its significance, adding, “But I think we also get hacked by other countries and other people.” He draws comparisons to other incidents of hacking, and suggests that the DNC left itself open to hacking and deserves some blame. Trump also says, “Russia will have much greater respect for our country when I am leading it than when other people have led it,” according to CNN.

Post-Jan. 20, 2017 — In the “early weeks” of the administration, top Trump administration officials task State Department staff “with developing proposals for the lifting of economic sanctions,” until their efforts are blocked by State Department officials and members of Congress, according to reporting by Michael Isikoff of Yahoo News.

Jan. 20-early Feb., 2017 — National Security Advisor Michael Flynn advocates for closer military communication with Russia to fight ISIS. According to several current and former Pentagon sources cited by the Daily Beast, Flynn suggests that a military communications channel originally established to prevent in-air collisions be expanded for other purposes that could have approached “outright cooperation” with Russia. Both the Pentagon and Centcom oppose Flynn’s idea.

Jan. 26-Feb. 13, 2017 — Acting Attorney General Sally Yates meets personally with White House Counsel Don McGahn about National Security Advisor Flynn’s conversations with Russian Ambassador Kislyak in December 2016. Yates warns the White House Counsel that Flynn’s statement that he did not discuss sanctions with the Russian Ambassador is untrue and that in her view Flynn is accordingly vulnerable to being blackmailed by Russia. Yates is fired on January 30 for refusing to enforce the immigration ban. (ABC News). It is not until February 13 that Flynn is asked to resign, following a Washington Post story revealing the meeting with Yates and the White House Counsel. (New York Times) (Washington Post)

Feb. 6, 2017 — In a Super Bowl interview with Bill O’Reilly, Trump says he respects Putin and dismisses the host’s characterization of the Russian president as a “killer.” “There are a lot of killers,” Trump says. “Do you think our country is so innocent?

Feb. 14, 2017 — The New York Times reports that Russia has deployed a cruise missile in violation of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force (INF) treatysigned by President Ronald Reagan and his Soviet counterpart Mikhail Gorbachev. In congressional testimony, Gen. Paul Selva, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff states, “We believe that the Russians have deliberately deployed it in order to pose a threat to NATO and to facilities within the NATO area of responsibility.” The administration does not issue a public statement rebuking Russia. When Trump is asked about the violation in a February 24 interview with Reuters, he says, “To me, it’s a big deal,” and adds that he “would bring it up” with Putin “if and when we meet.” The State Department reiterated the alleged violation in its April 2017 report and in December 2017, released a strategy to counter the alleged violations, according to the Arms Control Association.

March 21, 2017 — The State Department announces that Secretary Rex Tillerson will not attend his intended first NATO meeting in Brussels on April 5-6, and will instead stay in the U.S. to join Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. During the same announcement, the State Department notes that Tillerson will travel to Russia in April, drawing criticism that the administration is prioritizing Russia over historical allies and the NATO alliance, according to Reuters. Subsequently, the State Department offers new dates to reschedule the NATO meeting, and Tillerson attends.

March 31, 2017 — Tillerson meets with NATO leaders in Brussels. In his remarks, Tillerson reiterates the frequent U.S. exhortation over the years that allies increase their defense spending, but seems to take it a step further, saying: “As President Trump has made clear, it is no longer sustainable for the U.S. to maintain a disproportionate share of NATO’s defense expenditures.”

April 2-27, 2017 — In an interview on April 2, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley says: “Certainly I think Russia was involved in the U.S. election.” On April 5, Haley criticizes Russia for obstructing UN action on Syria and for supporting Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Haley says Russia made an “unconscionable choice” by opposing a resolution condemning the use of chemical weapons, and rhetorically asks “how many more children have to die before Russia cares?”

However, during a working lunch on April 24 with UN Security Council ambassadors including Haley, Trump jests, “Now, does everybody like Nikki? Because if you don’t … she can easily be replaced,” according to the Washington Post. Further, on April 27, Secretary of State Tillerson sends UN Ambassador Haley an email instructing her that, from then on, her comments should be “re-cleared with Washington if they are substantively different from the building blocks, or if they are on a high-profile issue,” according to the New York Times.

April 6, 2017 — In response to a reported chemical attack perpetrated by the Assad regime, the Trump administration launches a military attack on a Syrian-government airfield near Homs from which the chemical weapons attack reportedly was launched, according to NBC News. In an interview with Fox News, National Security Advisor Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster suggests Russia may have known about the chemical attacks in advance saying: “I think what we should do is ask Russia, how could it be, if you have advisers at that airfield, that you didn’t know that the Syrian air force was preparing and executing a mass murder attack with chemical weapons?”

April 23, 2017 — In an Associated Press interview, Trump expresses strong support for far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in upcoming French elections; Le Pen is supported by Putin and promises to remove France from the EU, a long-term goal for Putin. Le Pen had also visited Trump Tower in January, according to AP and Politico.

May 10, 2017 — Secretary of State Tillerson meets with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Ambassador Kislyak and says the U.S. would no longer require Russia to unfreeze the construction of an American consulate in St. Petersburgbefore considering handing back seized Russian diplomatic compounds in Maryland and New York as part of the Obama sanctions for election interference. The statement represented a reversal of the position staked out two days prior by Undersecretary of State Thomas Shannon, the Washington Post reports.

May 10, 2017 — During an Oval Office meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Ambassador Kislyak, Trump tells the Russian officials that he had fired the “nut job” FBI director (James Comey) who was investigating Russian election interference, according to the New York Times. Trump also says he had faced “great pressure” because of Russia, which had now been relieved. Additionally, Trump discloses highly classified information to the Russian officials. The intelligence was provided by Israel, which had not authorized the U.S. to share it, according to the Washington Post. The intelligence centered on Syrian extremist bomb-making plans, and was obtained in part through highly classified cyber operations, the disclosure of which “infuriated” Israeli officials, according to the New York Times. Israel subsequently changes its intelligence sharing protocols with the United States. No U.S. press are allowed into the Oval Office meeting, but Trump does allow TASS, the Russian state-owned agency, according to the Washington Post. Trump does not disclose to the press that Kislyak attended the meeting until TASS publishes photographs showing him in the room; the White House releasefollowing the meeting only mentions Lavrov. In a later interview, National Security Advisor McMaster refuses to confirm that Russian interference was discussed, even when asked directly about it.

May 10, 2017 — Following the meeting with Trump, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov tells TASS: “At present, our dialogue is not as politicized as it used to be during Obama’s presidency. The Trump administration, including the President himself and the Secretary of State, are people of action who are willing to negotiate.”

May 25 – 26, 2017 — Arriving in Europe with Trump, top White House economic advisor Gary Cohn tells reporters that the U.S. is “looking at” the future of sanctions on Russia. When pressed on what the current U.S. position is, he says: “Right now we don’t have a position.” The following day, Cohn counters that statement, saying the U.S. will not ease sanctions on Russia and, “if anything, we would probably look to get tougher.”

May 25, 2017 — In Europe, Trump chastises NATO leaders for their “chronic underpayments” to the alliance and fails to reaffirm U.S. commitment to Article 5 – the collective defense clause of the NATO agreement – promising only to “never forsake the friends that stood by our side” in the wake of Sept. 11 (a statement later labelled by the administration as an affirmation of Article 5). According to Politico, several Trump advisors, including National Security Advisor McMaster, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, are surprised by the omission, having endeavored to include language supporting Article 5 in Trump’s remarks prior to the summit. Additionally, National Security Council spokesman Michael Anton says Russia was not discussed in a larger meeting between American and European officials, but that he could not speak for a meeting involving just Trump, President of the European Council Donald Tusk, and President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker. Tusk later says he is “not 100 percent sure” he and Trump share a “common position, common opinion, about Russia,” according to the New York Times.

May 26, 2017 — At a political rally the day after the Brussels meeting, German Chancellor Angela Merkel says: “The times in which we could rely fully on others — they are somewhat over. This is what I experienced in the last few days. We Europeans truly have to take our fate into our own hands,” implying that Europe could no longer rely on a close alliance with the U.S.

May 30, 2017 — In a press briefing, White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer is asked about Trump’s reaction to Angela Merkel’s comments implying Europe could no longer rely on the U.S. He responds that Europe, “working in friendship with the U.S., the U.K., Russia, and other partners,” is precisely “what the President called for.” (May 30 press briefing). Trump reacts to Merkel’s comments on Twitter: “We have a MASSIVE trade deficit with Germany, plus they pay FAR LESS than they should on NATO & military. Very bad for U.S. This will change.”

Yes, he’s saying the policy is a deterrent

Yes, he’s saying the policy is a deterrent

by digby

She should have thought twice before she joined MS-13 and illegally immigrated

The president today:

Q: Reaction to latest deadline missed on child reunions?

“Well, I have a solution. Tell people not to come to our country illegally. That’s the solution. Don’t come to our country illegally. Come like other people do. Come legally.

Q: “Is that what you’re saying? you’re punishing the children?”

“I’m saying this: We have laws. We have borders. Don’t come to our country illegally. It’s not a good thing. And as far as ICE is concerned, the people that are fighting ICE? It’s a disgrace. These people go into harm’s way. There is nobody under greater danger than the people from ICE. What they do to MS-13, and everything else. So we ought to support ICE, not do what the Democrats are doing. Democrats want open borders, and they don’t mind crime. We want no crime, and we want borders where borders mean something. And remember this: Without borders, you do not have a country. Thank you everybody.”

The man is so narcissistic he is incapable of caring about these little kids’ suffering. Plus, he apparently believes they are all “animals” “infesting” our great white country.  So he’s fine with torturing them to try to influence their parents to not try to seek asylum in our fabulous country where all the white Trump voters pure and good and everyone else is evil.

He is a big believer in punishing innocents as a deterrent:

He’s sick.

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Trump’s global demolition derby continues

Trump’s global demolition derby continues

by digby

My Salon column today tees up Trump’s upcoming foreign trip

Today begins the latest installment of Donald Trump’s great global demolition derby as he leaves for the annual meeting of NATO allies, a meet and greet with the queen of England and a big bilateral summit in Finland with his favorite authoritarian oligarch, Russian President Vladimir Putin. Odds are that he is feeling his oats after handing the rose to his latest Supreme Court pick, Brett Kavanaugh, which he sees as yet another unprecedented accomplishment due to his leadership genius. So get ready: This could be a wild ride.

Before Trump gets back on Air Force One, we should catch up on the latest news surrounding his last bit foray into international gamesmanship, the pageant in Singapore last month. I know this will come as a huge surprise to everyone, but it turns out that Kim Jong Un wasn’t actually so enthralled by the force of Donald Trump’s dazzling personality that he rushed back to Pyongyang to order the immediate dismantling of his nuclear program. He and his government seem to have come away from the talks under the impression that the United States would make even more concessions before North Korea needed to think about doing anything at all. Frankly, since Trump chatted alone with Kim for some time and the agreement they ended up signing was so vague, that may very well be what was agreed between them.

Bloomberg published a fascinating inside look at Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s disastrous follow-up trip to Pyongyang last week. The North Koreans really ran him through his paces and in the end contradicted his happy talk about “progress” by complaining that the U.S. was acting “gangster-like” with its demands that they denuclearize. It’s pretty clear they would prefer to deal directly with the president, for obvious reasons.

Trump, who had grandly proclaimed after the summit that we could all sleep easily because North Korea was “no longer a nuclear threat,” responded to the Pompeo debacle with a lame tweet that practically begged his pal Kim to stop making him look bad and suggested that China was pulling the strings.

XXXX

As I have written many times, any day that we are not in a nuclear crisis is better than the alternative. Perhaps at some point this will result in some kind of normalization of relations with North Korea. But Trump’s other foreign policy disasters with the trade war with China, the G7 summit in Quebec and what most observers expect will be yet another clash at the upcoming NATO summit have left Trump without many friends at a time when he needs them more than ever to ensure that happens.

North Korea expert Victor Cha has said that normally in this situation, the U.S. would go to Chinese President Xi Jinping and say that diplomacy has hit a snag and it was time for China to tighten its sanctions to bring North Korea back to the table. But Trump has started a nasty (and incoherent) trade war with the Chinese and is now blaming them for the diplomatic impasse with Pyongyang. So his government is unlikely to get much of a hearing there.

He could also, in normal circumstances, go to NATO and other regional allies to put pressure on China and otherwise show a united front to lean on the North Koreans. But he’s loaded for bear going into the annual meeting and is preparing to harangue the other NATO members over money again because it is literally the only aspect of the organization he knows or cares about. To state the obvious, Trump’s ability to bring America’s traditional allies on board for any collective campaign is now severely hampered by his increasingly hostile relationship with all of them.

So that leads up to Trump’s meeting in Helsinki with his most trusted foreign policy adviser, Vladimir Putin, who will likely suggest that the president do something that will weaken the West’s position and strengthen Putin’s own country. After all, he already persuaded Trump to cancel the joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises as a freebie in the North Korean negotiations. (Trump has unconvincingly insisted that was done to save money, even though those exercises cost less than his cumulative trips to Mar-a-Lago.) Who knows what Putin can persuade Trump to give up next?

When I characterize Putin as being Trump’s favorite foreign policy adviser, I’m not entirely joking. Our president apparently asks the Russian leader for guidance with some frequency. The Washington Post describes a call between them last November in which Trump reportedly asked his friend, “What should I do about North Korea?” Meanwhile:

Some White House officials worry that Putin, who has held several calls with Trump, plays on the president’s inexperience and lack of detailed knowledge about issues while stoking Trump’s grievances. The Russian president complains to Trump about “fake news” and laments that the U.S. foreign policy establishment — the “deep state,” in Putin’s words — is conspiring against them, the first senior U.S. official said. 

“It’s not us,” Putin has told Trump, the official summarized. “It’s the subordinates fighting against our friendship.”

The New York Times reports that when Putin complained about some Trump aides not wanting the president to congratulate him on his electoral win, Trump told him to pay no attention because they are “very stupid” people. In contrast, the Times describes Trump being brusque and impatient with leaders of America’s traditional allies, often interrupting them in mid-sentence or insulting them to their faces.


As we have now seen demonstrated in living color, Trump’s alleged negotiating savvy and deal-making prowess have been monumentally oversold. It’s not that we didn’t suspect that already, considering how clumsily he has botched his own domestic legislative agenda over, even with a friendly GOP Congress. Still, you never know. Maybe he had a secret talent for one-on-one negotiations with foreign leaders. But no. He is a disaster.

There is a lot of trepidation among experts in the U.S. and around the world about this trip. Trump seems intent upon blowing up the NATO alliance over his obsession with what even some Europeans now describe as a “protection racket,” in which he blatantly threatens to trade security for economic return.

Since Trump is uninterested in history, he does not know or care that peace and prosperity in Europe are essential to peace and prosperity in the United States. When Europeans go to war with each other, as they did twice in the last century, the U.S. ends up paying a huge price in both human and financial terms. As former U.S. ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder said on MSNBC this week, “70 years of peace is a pretty darned good investment.”

But then, good investments are something Donald Trump doesn’t really understand. This is the guy who couldn’t even make a profit running casinos. He simply can’t recognize a sensible long-term deal when he sees it.

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The shrill one on Trump’s tariffs

The shrill one on Trump’s tariffs

by digby

In tweet form:

I guess his advisers can’t stop him from doing this so they’re just sitting there like a bunch of potted plants hoping for the best.

I guess we all are.  What a ridiculous situation.

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Putin’s putty by @BloggersRUs

Putin’s putty
by Tom Sullivan

One advantage Donald Trump has over his domestic opponents is his tolerance for chaos. As Gov. Jeb Bush predicted, he is a chaos president.

Ahead of the sitting president’s “reveal” last night of Judge Brett Kavanaugh of the DC Circuit Court of Appeals as his nominee to the Supreme Court, hundreds were poised outside the Supreme Court and Trump Tower in New York last night to protest any pick coming from the Trump White House. Ruling from a court driven rightward by Kavanaugh’s addition could upend decades of precedent.

But even as the U.S. Senate settles in for a confirmation fight, Donald Trump, president for now, jets off for his July 16 summit with Russian president Vladimir Putin in Helsinki. After reading David J. Kramer’s predictions of Putin’s approach to the meeting, it is not clear which event will be more unsettling, the one we will watch under the glare of press coverage or the one held behind closed doors.

Kramer is former assistant secretary of state for democracy, human rights and labor under president George W. Bush. He teaches now in the Vaclav Havel Program for Human Rights and Diplomacy at Florida International University’s Steven J. Green School of International & Public Affairs. He lays out in the Washington Post Putin’s likely approach to reducing the his counterpart (asset?) to putty in his hands.

Kramer lays out three strategies the former KGB officer may use in further undermining U.S. influence and decades of western security agreements secured by NATO.

First comes the flattery:

Putin is sure to remark how Trump overcame the odds in a presidential election few thought he could win — most likely including, by the way, Putin himself.

Putin will emphasize Trump’s ability to be his own man, unbeholden to the “swamp creatures” of Washington. He will admire Trump’s candor and readiness to defy norms, especially by challenging allies who are “taking advantage” of the United States.

Next comes Putin ratifying Trump’s antipathy to his predecessor, Barack Obama:

Second, Putin will blame all of the problems in U.S.-Russia relations on Trump’s predecessor, Barack Obama. Not lost on those in Moscow is Trump’s readiness to seek to do the opposite of what Obama did. As Trump himself has said, Obama let Putin take Crimea. Putin will say that it was Obama who imposed sanctions on Russia and accused Moscow of interfering in the election in an attempt to discredit Trump’s legitimacy.

Obama’s interference in Ukraine left Putin no choice but to defend Russian-speakers in Crimea. Obama’s failures in Syria, Putin will say, forced Russia to back Bashar al-Assad in pushing back against Islamic extremists. If the U.S. wants out, let us handle it. Pay no attention to our cooperation with the Iranians.

Finally, there’s NATO, the E.U., the G7, and the World Trade Organization:

Putin will claim that he and Trump have had enough of these institutions, which seek to block Russia and exploit U.S. generosity. Let’s start over, Putin will urge, to build the greatest partnership between Russia and the United States ever.

Only Trump, Putin will claim, is bold enough to toss aside these obsolete institutions and build a new foundation in their place. Such a foundation should be laid by the two great powers, Russia and the United States, led by their two great current leaders. Their meeting in Helsinki opens the way for the two of them to make history. Smaller countries, the Russian leader will posit, only get in the way of a brighter future together. Indeed, he and Trump could make Russian-American relations great again!

That’s only the most unsettling thing I’ve read this hour. Because it is more likely to work than not.

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For The Win 2018 is ready for download. Request a copy of my county-level election mechanics primer at tom.bluecentury at gmail.

MAGA for dummies

MAGA for dummies

by digby

Maybe these folks will be happy to be human sacrifices. But it’s a big ask.

Greg Sargent has the latest:

With the exception of the big, beautiful wall that is already being built on the southern border (in President Trump’s mind, anyway), the issue that taps most directly into the most visceral strains of Trumpism is his escalating trade war with China. Given how often he preens about his “toughness” toward China before roaring, worshipful rally crowds, it’s hard to see how he’ll back down, no matter what the consequences.

Numbers provided to me by the Brookings Institution suggest that those consequences will most directly impact the counties that voted for Trump. Indeed, the numbers show that China has taken aggressive steps to sharpen its targeting of Trump counties in the latest round of retaliatory tariffs it just announced.

This morning, Politico reports on the backstory leading up to Trump’s trade war. Trump has been ranting for decades about other countries “ripping off” the United States on trade. Now that hostilities are escalating, Politico notes that Trump has “no clear exit strategy and no explicit plans to negotiate new rules of the road with China, leaving the global trade community and financial markets wracked with uncertainty.” But Trump loyalists say he’s playing a long game and won’t buckle. As Stephen K. Bannon puts it, Trump “has preached a confrontation with China for 30 years,” making this a “huge moment” that pits “Trump against all of Wall Street.”

Despite this phony populist posturing about Trump targeting “Wall Street,” Trump counties are the ones most likely to take a hit. The Brookings Institution, which keeps detailed county-by-county data on employment by industry, looked at all the counties that have jobs in industries that China is targeting, and broke them out by counties that voted for Trump and Hillary Clinton. Brookings provided me with this table showing the results:

Nearly two-thirds of the jobs in industries targeted by China’s tariffs — a total of more than 1 million jobs — are in more than 2,100 counties that voted for Trump. By contrast, barely more than one-third of the jobs in China-targeted industries — just over half a million — are in the counties that voted for Clinton. (This is based on 2017 county/employment data.) This doesn’t mean those jobs will definitely be lost; it means that they are in industries that are getting caught up in Trump’s trade war, making them vulnerable, depending on what happens.

China’s retaliatory tariffs are mainly aimed at U.S. exports of agricultural and food products such as soybeans, cereal, seafood, meats, fruits and nuts, and dairy, as well as intermediate goods and transport equipment, including vehicles.

Mark Muro, a senior fellow at Brookings who compiled this data, tells me that the jobs targeted by Chinese tariffs include well over 200,000 in poultry processing; nearly 140,000 in other animal slaughtering; over 120,000 in automobile manufacturing; and tens of thousands apiece in industries involving the manufacture of light trucks, utility vehicles and construction machinery, among others. As maps compiled by The Post show, many of these industries are concentrated in the Midwestern heartland and in the South.

The rub here, Muro tells me, is that China’s new retaliatory tariffs actually go further in targeting red counties than its previously threatened list did. “These tariffs will touch down in very specific places,” Muro said. “They appear calculated to have that effect. In its final iteration the list became significantly more rural and agricultural and red.”

It’s sometimes said that this trade war might have a negligible effect on the U.S. economy overall. But Muro points out to me that, by targeting industries that are particularly important in their geographic areas, the tariffs could have outsize impact in concentrated localities. “These counties rely pretty heavily on these industries,” Muro says. “Certain places could be hit quite hard.” Red places, to be precise.

As Paul Krugman points out, Trump’s trade escalation is built on a foundation of delusions: the idea that trade wars are easy to “win” or that the country with the largest trade surplus has secured some sort of conquering status; the refusal to grasp that disrupting complex international supply chains hurts people on all sides, including U.S. companies and workers; the lie that the United States is getting “ripped off” by punishingly high tariffs. We don’t know how far Trump’s trade war will go. But given how deeply entangled it has become with Trump’s own megalomania and with the simplistic, rage-addled vision he has nursed about international trade for decades, does anyone want to wager that Trump will find a way out anytime soon?

Nope. But it’s always possible that they’ll find a way to rationalize the whole thing as something Obama and Clinton did to them. Trump will almost certainly find a way to blame someone else, even aside from the Chinese or the Canadians or some other foreign country. It’s how he rolls.

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Speaking of pro-torture imperialist presidencies

Speaking of pro-torture imperialist presidencies

by digby

Borat is back. Via National Memo:

The film’s star and creator Sacha Baron Cohen understands the significance of his art form. That’s why his latest resurrection of the character is not focused on sight gags, but on the American political landscape.

Little else is known about Cohen’s new project, slated to premiere on Showtime in mid-July. This teaser clip from Cohen’s Twitter account features Borat’s unmistakable voice asking for an autograph from none other than GOP icon Dick Cheney.

Borat is always funny to listen to. But the former Bush VP’s behavior in the clip may send a chill up your spine.

Click for creepy time, eh?

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Another skirmish in the civility wars

Another skirmish in the civility wars

by digby

So the big story today is that Trump’s unctuous factotum, Stephen Miller, was cursed at by a bartender from a sushi bar and it was so upsetting to him that he threw the sushi away.

That’s very, very uncivil. Shocking really.

Meanwhile:

The lead hard-core gang prosecutor in the San Bernardino County District Attorney’s Office is under investigation for a series of offensive rants on social media, triggering demands for his dismissal.

Deputy District Attorney Michael Selyem, who joined the D.A.’s Office 12 years ago, targeted outspoken U.S. Rep. Maxine Waters, former first lady Michelle Obama, Mexican immigrants and the victim of a police shooting in Facebook and Instagram posts labeled by one critic as “hateful rhetoric.”

Of Waters, Selyem said: “Being a loud-mouthed c#nt in the ghetto you would think someone would have shot this bitch by now …”

In an online argument with someone over the police shooting of a civilian, Selyem wrote, “That s—bag got exactly what he deserved. … You reap what you sow. And by the way go f— yourself you liberal s—bag.”

It was unclear which police shooting Selyem was referencing, and whether or not it was an open case in San Bernardino County or had occurred elsewhere.

Selyem also posted a doctored picture of Michelle Obama holding a sign saying, “Trump grabbed my penis.”

Selyem, a 50-year-old resident of Placentia, is the lead attorney in a unit tasked with cracking down on criminal gang activity that surged as members moved inland from Los Angeles County in search of more affordable housing. Many of those gangs are predominantly Latino. One of Selyem’s posts showed a man in a giant sombrero with the words, “Mexican word of the day: Hide.”

And yes, he is a Trump lover. Bigly.

Selyem apparently is an ardent supporter of President Donald Trump. Beneath a Facebook post offering free tickets to Trump’s presidential inauguration, Selyem wrote, “I love that all of you liberal f—–g p—–s are so filled with hate. Gonna be a long 8 years for you scumbags. choo choo trump” 

Beneath a Breitbart News post about the Budweiser Super Bowl ad that celebrated the immigrant success story of the beer empire’s founder, Selyem wrote: “I am all for white males immigrating here legally and starting a business. It is the terrorist a–holes sneaking in here wanting to kill me an (sic) my family that I am opposed to. I cannot believe how shallow democrats are. They must really think people are stupid. I guess that is evident because they actually thought Hilary (sic) Clinton could win a presidential election… TWICE!!! LMFAO!!!”

Update: lol. The chicken-shit bully Trump wants his staff to yell back at their critics. One assumes he would approve of using this prosecutor’s language.

The president himself leads a cloistered existence, never visiting a restaurant or golf club other than the ones he owns or controls. Reared in New York’s indelicate political culture, Trump does not like to appear meek, using rallies and his Twitter account to lacerate rivals.

In recent weeks, say senior administration officials, Trump has voiced dissatisfaction with aides who have backed down during public confrontations, including his spokeswoman, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who was asked to leave the Red Hen restaurant in Virginia last month by the establishment’s owner.
[…]
Newt Gingrich, the former Republican House speaker and Trump ally, said the way to end the public confrontations is “to call the police.”

“You file charges and you press them,” Gingrich said. “We have no reason to tolerate barbarians trying to impose totalitarian behavior by sheer force, and we have every right to defend ourselves.”

I love that he characterizes people exercising their free speech as totalitarians but calling the police to stop them is the freedom loving response. 

But that’s Newt. The original schizo-fascist.

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The bots are back in town

The bots are back in town

by digby

Not that they ever left. Salon has a new article about the latest agit-prop campaign to convince progressives to #walkaway from the Democratic party so that Republicans can win in November and give Donald Trump free rein, which is surely the best way to advance progressive goals.

Anyone who’s spent time in the harrowing weeds of political Twitter recently, however, has surely witnessed the prevalence of trolls and bots swarming popular liberals and “blue checks” while simultaneously spreading propaganda designed to influence the outcome of the election.

One of the present-day agitprop campaigns linked to Putin’s hacker squads is the “WalkAway” hashtag.

The Huffington Post reported over the weekend that this troll attack is a counter-measure against the potential “blue wave” coming this fall, with the WalkAway hashtag intended to simulate real-world Democrats who have apparently chosen to leave the party due to its (try not to laugh) alleged intolerance and lack of civility. It’s a ludicrous concept, given the galactically more egregious incivility of Trump and his Red Hats, extending back at least three years and including a deadly terrorist attack in Charlottesville, among myriad other examples.

In any case, this “hashtag has been connected to Russian bots,” according to the HuffPost report:

It has ranked as the third or fourth most popular Kremlin-linked hashtag for days, according to bot tracking by the Hamilton 68 site run by the bipartisan Alliance for Securing Democracy, which keeps tabs on Russian activity on the American internet.

Arc Digital has made the same connection in the “strikingly similar” tweets pushing a “familiar narrative” of Democratic “bullying.” Arc traced the campaign from a Facebook group in May and subsequent tweets whose traffic suddenly began to explode late last month.
[…]
To be clear: This isn’t being circulated by earnest yet misguided voters who formerly identified as Democrats. This is clearly being circulated by trolls connected to the Russian influence operations. #WalkAway has obvious roots in the 2016 primaries, when Russian trolls attempted to turn liberal or left-wing voters against casting general election ballots for the eventual Democratic nominee (either Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton), thus diminishing Democratic turnout. The same goal applies here.

Oh and yes, the conservative entertainment complex is on board. Despite the reality that Russians are accosting voters with nefarious agitprop like this — including other keywords like “rigged” and “witch hunt” — HuffPost noted that Fox News is reporting this active measure as if it were an actual grassroots “movement.” It’s not.

More at the link.

The message of #walkaway is so obviously conservative (“Democrats want to keep people of color and LGBT victims”) that I can’t imagine any real progressives would fall for it. But who knows? A lot of people don’t read the fine the fine print and the meme itself has strong echoes in leftist circles.

In any case, this is definitely a bot meme:

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