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Month: April 2019

About that demobilization

About that demobilization

by digby

Despite everyon’es fears that the 2018 midterm victory sapped all the energy out of the Democratic electorate, it appears that those voters are still on fire:.

Democratic freshman lawmakers are posting huge fundraising numbers even though it is the beginning of the 2020 cycle, signaling trouble for Republicans hoping to reclaim the House.

Democratic presidential candidates are posting some impressive first-quarter fundraising hauls. But it’s the stellar numbers from relatively obscure, freshman House Democrats that have caught the attention of Republican operatives. Rep. Josh Harder, D-Calif., raised $800,000 from Jan. 1 to March 31; Rep. Antonio Delgado, D-N.Y., raised $750,000; and Rep. Joe Cunningham, D-S.C., raised $650,000, to name a few.

Fatigue typically sets in after an election as donors retrench and the grassroots bask in victory. To the extent robust, post-midterm election activity continues, presidential candidates usually benefit. But House Democrats — even those not named Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. — are maintaining their 2018 momentum.

“The Democrats’ liberal base is still motivated by their white-hot hatred of President Trump,” said Michael Steel, a Republican operative.

Democrats collectively raised more than $1 billion in 2017 and 2018 on their way to flipping 40 House seats and winning control of the chamber after eight years in the minority. The party lost a net of two Senate seats but successfully defended a handful of targeted seats while capturing two from the GOP in the key battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada. In doing so, Democrats vastly outraised the Republicans.

Some Republicans assumed that the progressive energy fueling the Democratic Party’s green wave of fundraising and activism in 2018 would cool down post-election. According to this line of this line of thinking, seizing the House, and exercising the power it afforded, would satisfy some of the hunger to combat Trump.

But some Republicans are warning colleagues to ignore this conventional wisdom after seeing the initial wave of first quarter fundraising figures from House Democrats who were elected just last November and are far from household names. “Democrats are serious about defeating the president and they want a House that will be helpful,” said a veteran Republican strategist, who requested anonymity to avoid publicly criticizing the party.

“In 2018, Democrats were just getting started,” this operative added.

And I’d guess Trump’s ongoing lunacy, which is getting worse, will keep this energy at a very high level, especially if the Presidential candidates deliver a hopeful policy agenda.

Hate plus hope FTW

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Spies at the country club

Spies at the country club

by digby

This is fine:

You have to wonder how many people like this made it in.

Trump fired the head of the Secret Service today but there’s no evidence it had anything to do with this. I would guess that if it did it was because the head of the Secret service wanted to tighten security. Trump wants the money that comes from random people paying to go to Mar-a-lago and he doesn’t care where it comes from or what they’re doing.

But hey. No biggie, amirite?

He is desperate to find a way to appease Ann Coulter

He is desperate to find a way to appease Ann Coulter

by digby

This is what he wants to see more of


Get those cages cleaned out. He wants to fill ’em up:

President Donald Trump has for months urged his administration to reinstate large-scale separation of migrant families crossing the border, according to three U.S. officials with knowledge of meetings at the White House.

Trump’s outgoing Homeland Security secretary, Kirstjen Nielsen, resisted — setting her at odds with the president.

According to two of the sources, Nielsen told Trump that federal court orders prohibited the Department of Homeland Security from reinstating the policy, and that he would be reversing his own executive order from June that ended family separations.

Three U.S. officials said that Kevin McAleenan, the head of Customs and Border Patrol who is expected to take over as acting DHS secretary, has not ruled out family separation as an option.

The policy McAleenan would consider, according to the officials, is known as “binary choice” and would give migrant parents the option between being separated from their children or bringing their children with them into long term detention.

Trump has been pushing this policy since January, the sources said, when the numbers of undocumented immigrants crossing the border began to rise.

A senior administration official said it seems Trump is convinced that family separation has been the most effective policy at deterring large numbers of asylum-seekers.

They are going to do something about it too:

White House senior adviser Stephen Miller wants to make sure that outgoing Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen is only the first of a string of senior officials headed out the door. 

Trump administration officials say that Miller, who played key a role in Nielsen’s ouster, also wants the President to dismiss the director of United States Citizenship and Immigration Services, Lee Cissna, and the department’s general counsel, John Mitnick.

A senior administration official also said that under the law, DHS Under Secretary of Management Claire Grady, the current acting deputy secretary, is next in line of succession to be acting secretary. That means there are questions as to whether she will need to be fired as well in order to make Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Kevin McAleenan the acting DHS secretary, as Trump tweeted Sunday night.

Miller’s heightened influence within the West Wing has been aided by the President, who recently told aides in an Oval Office meeting that Miller was in charge of all immigration and border related issues in the White House, according to a person familiar with the meeting.

Miller has always informally been one of the leading hardliner voices on immigration in the West Wing. But this change formalizes that role and it also gives him the ability to call and chair meetings on immigration issues. This change was first reported by The Washington Post.

The sudden shift in personnel is indicative of the White House trying to redirect immigration policy following a surge of migrant apprehensions at the southern border in recent months.
The President has pushed in recent weeks to reinstate the family separation policy, which Nielsen resisted, a source familiar with the discussions says. Trump rescinded that policy amid public outrage and scrutiny from the courts last summer.

Additionally, after Trump walked back his threat to close the US-Mexico border and praised Mexico for doing more to stop the flow of immigrants, the President has since soured on his own walk back. By the end of the week, Trump became frustrated once again about the issues at the border, dissatisfied that Mexico was not doing enough and looking for his aides to take tougher steps to address the problem.
The changes have left the department in limbo, which has had at least three positions filled by people in an acting capacity in senior roles.

Late last week, the White House abruptly withdrew the nomination of Ron Vitiello for director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, which caught both Congress and the department by surprise. Nielsen was unaware what was happening until after the nomination was pulled, a person familiar with the news said.

Asked about the mood at DHS following Nielsen’s resignation, one DHS official told CNN there was “some exasperation,” adding that the department doesn’t “have enough depth” to fill longtime vacancies.

“We are losing leadership faster than we can get it confirmed or even hired permanently,” the official said.

They will keep firing people until they find a fascist who will get ‘er done.  I  think it’s pretty obvious  that the CPB and ICE are champing at the bit to get hardcore. The military may be deployed as well.

Let’s face it. Trump is nearly desperate not to lose the next election. It’s not just because he can’t stand being a loser. It’s that he knows he has serious legal liability stemming from his businesses waiting for him. He needs to let the statute of limitation run for as long as possible.  Or at least until he can ensure that he has cronies in place to cover him in the courts and-or pardon him at all levels. That takes time.

I think he believes that he is vulnerable on this issue because Ann Coulter is mad about it.  Any slippage in the base is a disaster for him. Of course, he doesn’t realize that these inhumane policies just rev up the other side. He doesn’t seem to worry about that for some reason.

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The other white working class

The other white working class

by digby

We know that white non-colleged evangelical voters love Trump. God help them. And I know everyone sees the plight of men who wear “steel toed boots” to be a major problem for the white working class, and it is. And they love Trump for all kinds of complicated reasons. But other white working-class voters who are looking to the Democrats. Maybe a presidential candidate who addresses their specific concerns might be successful in bringing back more of that demographic.

This article is from last November:

It’s well-known that white working-class voters are a central part of the GOP’s and Donald Trump’s electoral base. It’s also well-known that white evangelical voters are even more prone to go MAGA. The fact that these two groups significantly overlap, especially in the South, has created some confusion in understanding the nature of these Trumpian allegiances. And it suggests that it might be a good idea to disentangle class, gender, and religion in analyzing these groups.

Back before the elections, the Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter drew attention to this issue, noting research showing a bigger gap in Trump approval ratings between evangelicals and non-evangelicals than between groups divided by gender or class (defined as education levels). She suggested that fact should point Democrats towards some largely undiscussed opportunities:

White evangelical women without a college degree give Trump a 68 percent job approval rating, while those with a degree give him a much lower, though still positive 51 percent approval rating. Meanwhile, Trump’s approval among white, non-evangelical women without a college degree is 35 percent, just five points higher than the 30 percent approval rating he gets from white, non-evangelical college-educated women …

First, stop assuming that all white, non-college voters are core Trump supporters. Trump’s base is evangelical white voters, regardless of education level. Second, white non-evangelical, non-college women are the ultimate swing voters.

Now with the benefit of exit polls, we can check to see if Walter’s hypothesis checked out. Ron Brownstein demonstrates that it did:

Democrats … ran particularly well this year among white working-class women who are not evangelicals, a group that also displayed substantial disenchantment in the exit poll with Trump’s performance. Those women could be a key constituency for Democrats in 2020 in pivotal Rust Belt states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where relatively fewer blue-collar whites are also evangelical Christians.

Nationwide, nearly three-fifths of blue-collar white women who are not evangelicals voted Democratic in last month’s House races, while an equal number said they disapproved of Trump’s performance in office, the analysis of exit poll results found. That was well over double the Democratic share of the vote among non-college white women who are evangelical Christians.

To be specific about it, Democrats led among non-evangelical white non-college-educated women by a robust 57/41 margin. Republicans won evangelical white non-college-educated women by a huge 71/22 margin. Despite a gender gap among white working-class voters, Democrats won the overall non-evangelical white working-class demographic by a 52/46 margin.

The implications for 2020 are already sinking in, notes Brownstein:

This bubbling private debate has given rise to a new and improbable acronym that some Democrats see as a potentially pivotal group for 2020: WNCNEW, as in white non-college, non-evangelical women.

“WNCNEW is the group Democrats should care about,” one Democratic strategist insisted in an email. Those women represented about one in nine voters nationally this year and an even larger share in key Rust Belt battlegrounds.

This realization should at least supplement the excitement Democrats are expressing about their gains among college-educated suburban voters in 2018, and the expectation that growing non-white populations will eventually tip the balance against lily-white elephants. There is an opening among certain categories of white working-class voters, and taking advantage of it does not require evading or disguising progressive cultural positions. And it just so happens the most promising of these voters disproportionately live in some of the most essential states. It could be a very big deal in 2020.

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Yes, he really is dangerous

Yes, he really is dangerous

by digby

The Washington Post rounds up the latest on Trump’s authoritarian tendencies:

President Trump often demands legally dubious solutions to complex problems. When he’s denied, he blames others — including his own staff. That’s really the nub of why he’s pushing out Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen.

Well at least he’s not an icky Democrat. That’s the main thing. Sure he’s a viciously racist demagogue and instinctive fascist, but no need to worry until he actually gets people killed. (Oh wait …. And wait.)

The 30-minute sit-down in the White House residence at 5 p.m. on Sunday wasn’t like the end of an episode of “The Apprentice.” It wasn’t televised in prime time, for one, and he didn’t dramatically say “You’re fired” at the end.

But it had the same effect. Just like the partial government shutdown he forced earlier this year in a futile effort to get money for a wall, Trump telegraphed to his base that he’s willing to do whatever it takes to secure the southern border and conveyed that he intends to make this issue a centerpiece of his reelection campaign.

“Two senior administration officials said that Nielsen had no intention of quitting when she went to the meeting Sunday with the president and that she was forced to step down,” Nick Miroff, Josh Dawsey, Seung Min Kim and Maria Sacchetti report. “Trump told aides last fall that he wanted to fire Nielsen … She appeared to regain her footing after U.S. Border Patrol agents used tear gas to repel a large crowd attempting to break through a border fence — the kind of ‘tough’ action Trump said he wanted …

The president grew frustrated with Nielsen again early this year as the number of migrants rose and as she raised legal concerns about some of Trump’s more severe impulses, particularly when his demands clashed with U.S. immigration laws and federal court orders.”

This is a central theme in all the news accounts of why Trump turned on her.

“The president called Ms. Nielsen at home early in the mornings to demand that she take action to stop migrants from entering the country, including doing things that were clearly illegal, such as blocking all migrants from seeking asylum,” the New York Times reports. “She repeatedly noted the limitations imposed on her department by federal laws, court settlements and international obligations. Those responses only infuriated Mr. Trump further.”

It’s part of a pattern. Trump has repeatedly shown disdain for the rule of law. The president declared a national emergency on Feb. 15 so he could divert money from the military to build his wall, even though his own lawyers at the White House and Justice Department advised him against doing so.

Trump alone cannot fix it, but he’s still learning the limits of the presidency and the added constraints that come with divided government.

The law needs to change to accomplish most of what Trump wants at the southern border, and this is very unlikely to happen now that Democrats control the House. The president ran promising that he alone can fix it, and he appears to still be learning that this is not how republican government works.

Nielsen “believed the situation was becoming untenable” because Trump was “becoming increasingly unhinged about the border crisis and making unreasonable and even impossible requests,” a senior administration official told CNN.

The Wall Street Journal’s conservative editorial board describes her termination as “a ritual sacrifice”: “Ms. Nielsen wasn’t responsible for the surge of Central American migrants arriving at the border to claim political asylum, but Donald Trump and Democrats in Congress both needed a fall guy.”

Trump prefers to surround himself with yes men.

This is a major reason that the administration has experienced historically high turnover.

“Nielsen’s ouster fits with a pattern of Trump forcing out officials who have pushed back against his more radical instincts or been unable to carry them out, or who have earned his ire for being unwilling to match his defiance for governing practice and convention,” CNN’s Stephen Collinson notes. “They include former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, ex-Attorney General Jeff Sessions, former national security adviser H.R. McMaster and former chief of staff John Kelly.”

Nielsen waits for Trump to disembark from Air Force One on Friday in California so he can visit the border. (Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images)

The proliferation of “acting” secretaries continues.

Trump announced that Kevin McAleenan, the commissioner of Customs and Border Protection, will take over as acting DHS secretary. Normally, the deputy secretary would take over on an acting basis, but the president hasn’t nominated a No. 2 – despite all his talk of there being a national emergency. Nielsen tweeted that she’ll stay on through Wednesday — the day after tomorrow — “to assist with an orderly transition.”

This means that there will be interim leaders, who have not been confirmed by the Senate for the jobs they hold, atop the departments of Defense, Interior and Homeland Security. There is also not a permanent director of the Office of Management and Budget, and Mick Mulvaney remains the acting White House chief of staff.

Trump has said that he prefers it this way, and he’s “in no hurry” to name permanent replacements who can hold the jobs indefinitely. He wants his people at places like the Pentagon to feel like they’re on a tight leash. It means they’re constantly trying to curry favor.

[…]
It’s not clear that someone who will be “tough” enough for Trump can get confirmed to lead ICE or DHS.

Trump said Friday that he wants someone “tougher” to lead ICE after he unceremoniously dumped Ron Vitiello, a 30-year veteran of the U.S. Border Patrol, just weeks before he was poised to win confirmation. No one from the White House bothered to tell Vitiello he was being dumped. He found out the nomination had been formally rescinded in the press. His staff initially thought it was a clerical error. The challenge is finding someone who will be as “tough” as Trump wants without turning off moderate Senate Republicans.

Former Virginia attorney general Ken Cuccinelli is under consideration to replace Nielsen and has been at the White House recently, according to my colleagues on the White House beat. But he could run into trouble over his efforts to block Trump from winning the Republican nomination in 2016.

One name getting a lot of attention is Kris Kobach, the former Kansas secretary of state who lost the governor’s race in November. He’s a hard-liner who co-chaired Trump’s ill-fated commission to explore voter fraud. For several reasons, a Kobach nomination would put a bunch of Republican senators in a tough spot. The likeliest role for him would be a post that doesn’t require Senate approval.

Energy Secretary Rick Perry is seen inside the White House as the most confirmable of the names being floated, per Bob Costa.

Conservative provocateur Ann Coulter, who has publicly soured on Trump over his failure to deliver the wall, celebrated Nielsen’s departure but worriedon Twitter that her replacement won’t be any better.

Stephen Miller listens as President Trump meets with Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer in the Oval Office on Dec. 11. That was the meeting at which Trump said he would take responsibility for shutting down the government. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

Stephen Miller is ascendant.

The White House policy adviser has recently gotten more control over this issue internally. Trump said in a recent Oval Office meeting that Miller is now in charge of all immigration initiatives. He’s encouraged Trump’s nativist tendencies and criticized both Vitiello and Nielsen to the president.

“Miller has pushed for someone to take over the ICE role who would be more receptive to his policy ideas,” per Nick, Seung Min and Josh. “He also is ‘particularly adept,’ one administration official said, at placing blame on others in the White House when ideas he promotes do not work. ‘Ron Vitiello has spent as much time defending our nation’s borders as Stephen Miller has been alive,’ one official said of Miller, who is 33. One senior official said: ‘This is part of an increasingly desperate effort by Stephen to throw people under the bus when the policies he has advocated are not effective. Once it becomes clear that Stephen’s policies aren’t working, he tells the president, “They’re not the right people.”’”

“Miller has also recently been telephoning mid-level officials at several federal departments and agencies to angrily demand that they do more to stem the flow of immigrants into the country,” Politico reports. “The officials at the Departments of Homeland Security, Justice and State, who each handle different parts of the immigration process, were initially surprised that a high-ranking White House official like Miller would call them directly, rather than contact their bosses. ‘It’s intimidation,’ one of the people who was briefed on the calls [said]. ‘Anytime you get a call like this from the White House it’s intimidation … Under normal circumstances, if you were a deputy in one of these agencies, it would be very unusual.’”

The story quotes “a person close to Nielsen” saying: “They failed with the courts and with Congress and now they’re eating their own.”

Nielsen’s departure is also a win for John Bolton,
who has consolidated power since John Kelly left as chief of staff.

The national security adviser has repeatedly told the president that Nielsen isn’t the right fit for her job, a senior administration official told The Post.

Nielsen, 46, was Kelly’s chief of staff when he was the secretary of homeland security and replaced him when he became White House chief of staff. With her protector gone, and her enemies in such close proximity to the president, Nielsen struggled to survive.

Feel safer? Everything this fine?

Insufficient cruelty by @BloggersRUs

Insufficient cruelty
by Tom Sullivan


Image from promo for The Strain, Season 3

Someone purporting to be president of the United States tweeted Sunday night:

“Secretary of Homeland Security Kirstjen Nielsen will be leaving her position, and I would like to thank her for her service. I am pleased to announce that Kevin McAleenan, the current U.S. Customs and Border Protection Commissioner, will become Acting Secretary for @DHSgov. I have confidence that Kevin will do a great job!”

In Donald Trump’s reality-show presidency, everyone is acting.

The New York Times reports Nielsen’s resignation came after she met with the sitting president on Sunday to find “a way forward” in their relationship, “in part thinking she could have a reasoned conversation with Mr. Trump,” according to three sources.

CBS News reports it is unclear whether Nielsen left on her own or was pressured to resign.

A senior official told CBS top Trump administration adviser Stephen Miller is driving a “massive DHS overhaul” of which Nielsen’s departure is one piece. Slate’s Daniel Politi adds the change comes days after Trump retracted the nomination of Ron Vitiello to head US Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

“We’re going in a little different direction,” Trump said Friday. “Ron’s a good man but we’re going in a tougher direction. We want to go in a tougher direction.”

Trump in recent days has repeatedly threatened to close the southern U.S. border to stem the flow of migrants and asylum seekers from Central America.

Former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, on the short list to become Trump’s white-nationalist “immigration czar,” told Lou Dobbs of Fox Business last week the U.S. should incarcerate asylum seekers awaiting processing in “camps” until they can be deported:

“Instead of selling [the thousands of empty mobile home trailers that the United States owns], deploy them to the border cities, and create processing towns that are confined,” Kobach said. “We process them right there, in that camp, where they have the three square meals, they’re living in a nice mobile home, and then as soon as they’re done … they’re on the next plane back home.”

The Bush administration had enough residual shame to hide its cruelties in black sites offshore. Confined to U.S. border camps, migrants might be less exposed to the elements but only slightly less exposed to the eyes of the world. Last week’s images of families with children and babies behind fencing and razor wire below the Paso del Norte Bridge in El Paso, Texas lent a gulag-ish look to a country once the self-styled leader of the free world.

It is a look gleefully cruel enough to cheer Trump’s white nationalist Republican base. Yet, it demonstrates to Trump his hirelings are not deporting the wretched refuse, the homeless, tempest-tost fast enough to prove he is Supreme Leader. Providing American support to Central American countries that might help stem the migrant flow at the source would be a rational person’s response. It is a non-starter for Trump because he sees no personal profit in the federal investment. And it might make Supreme Leader appear less tough.

Child separation was not enough for him. Tear gas was not enough. Zero tolerance was not enough. Like an addict needing more and stronger drugs, Trump, with Miller’s prompting, keeps upping his dose. Cruelty may be the point, but cruelty is not enough to scratch their itch, and Nielsen was not scratching hard and fast enough. One fears where this trajectory leads next.

He’d send back the robed woman in New York harbor if she was not such a tourist draw.

The counter-narrative continues

The counter-narrative continues

by digby

We have Lindsey Graham agreeing to go after Hillary Clinton and the FBI from his perch as the new Chairman of the Judiciary Committee in order to throw some bloody red meat at the slavering Trump base. (He’s running for re-election in South Carolina.)
Now Devin Nunes is back in business:

House Intelligence Committee ranking member Devin Nunes exclusively told Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures” that he is preparing to send eight criminal referrals to the Department of Justice this week concerning alleged misconduct from “Watergate wannabes” during the Trump-Russia investigation, including the leaks of “highly classified material” and conspiracies to lie to Congress and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) court.

The dramatic step comes as Republicans have pushed for the release of key documents to uncover the origins of the now-discredited narrative that the Trump campaign colluded improperly with the Russian government. President Trump recently told Fox News he would release the entirety of the FISA applications used to surveil one of his top aides, and other related documents.

Nunes said he has been working on the referrals for more than two years, and wanted to wait until the confirmation of Attorney General Bill Barr.

They needed Trump’s Roy Cohn and they seem very convinced that they finally have him.

Fasten your seatbelts. These next two years are going to be doozies.

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It depends on what the meaning of “really bad” is

It depends on what the meaning of “really bad” is

by digby

TPM reports:

President Donald Trump’s personal attorney Rudy Giuliani said Sunday that he was “confident” there would “be no evidence of anything really bad” in special counsel Robert Mueller’s final report.

But, in an interview with CBS News’ Margaret Brennan, Giuliani stopped short of saying there would be no evidence of obstruction of justice in the report, a question that Attorney General William Barr’s four-page summary of the expansive document left open.

“Are you confident there will be no evidence of obstruction of justice in these 400 pages?” Brennan asked Giuliani.

“I’m going to tell you why I’m confident there will be no evidence of anything really bad,” Giuliani said, before pivoting to a separate point and accusing Mueller’s team of leaking to reporters “all along” during the investigation.

He said later that Trump did nothing “wrong” which is truly a bridge too far. We already know that he’s the most immoral, unethical, corrupt president in history. And we also know that the government has determined that the only thing that can be done about that is to impeach him.

Now it’s a matter of whether or not the US Congress, charged with reining in such an unfit despot has the political will to do it. With the Republicans having a majority in the Senate, and acting like followers of Jim Jones and the People’s Temple, it look as if removing him that way will be impossible. (I’m for doing it anyway and letting the Republicans run on defending him but I think I’m in a minority.)

But did he “do anything wrong?” Yes. That was wrong. He also committed dozens of other impeachable crimes as far as I’m concerned. The abuse of power and financial corruption alone should do it. But unfortunately, we have a thoroughly unethical, nihilistic political party and tens of millions of its cult followers who are just fine with all of that.

Barring some news that is so overwhelming that it snaps the cult out of its trance, that probably means the rest of the country has to mobilize and vote them out — while the mechanism to do that is still available.

A lovely family picture except for one thing …

A lovely family picture except for one thing …

by digby

I am not a big fan of Congressman Tim Ryan. I wouldn’t vote for him in a presidential primary. He’s a conservative Blue Dog style Democrat.

But he does have a lovely family:

The great Bill “Jeers and Cheers” Harnsberger pointed out what’s wrong with this picture:

Seriously. What were they thinking?

I guess it says nothing about what kind of president he would be. But it says something …

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