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Month: September 2019

Did Democratic House members listen to their constituents?

Did Democratic House members listen to their constituents?

by digby

My Salon column this morning:

When the Democrats were on the brink of winning the House back in 2018, there were many giddy columns written about the fact that the country would finally get the congressional oversight of the Trump administration that had been lacking under Republican rule. Axios reported that in addition to all the scandals surrounding the Mueller probe, the administration was “preparing for hell” anticipating investigations into Trump’s businesses and tax returns, violations of the emoluments clause, Jared Kushner’s ethics violations — including his mysterious security clearance — all the corruption among Cabinet members, and the lackadaisical approach to classified information, just for starters. The list was very long.

They needn’t have worried too much. The Democrats didn’t move quickly on any of that, instead preferring to wait for the results of the Mueller investigation and pass aspirational legislation that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to even consider, much less pass. They issued subpoenas for documents and interviews that the White House simply refused to honor, sending everything to the courts. When Attorney General Bill Barr put his thumb on the scale for Trump with his “letter” on the Mueller report announcing that the president was pure as the driven snow, Democrats insisted on waiting for the full report. Once it was released, they insisted on waiting for the redacted pages to be released to them. That went to the courts as well. All of this has had the effect of slowing everything down to a crawl.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made it clear from the beginning that she didn’t want to pursue impeachment of the president and, in practice, didn’t really care about accountability for Trump and his minions, preferring to concentrate on passing legislation that was responsive to “kitchen table issues” and drawing a sunny face on the Democratic Party going into 2020. Aggressively taking on Trump doesn’t really fit that strategy.

Before Congress adjourned I wrote that the August recess could be pivotal in whether that strategy would hold. If Democrats’ constituents raised the issue back in the districts it could change some minds. Unlike in 2009, when Republicans stormed the town halls, crudely shouting down their representatives for having the temerity to try to ensure that Americans could see a doctor without going bankrupt, Democratic voters were more polite. So the press didn’t cover it much. However, voters did show up, and a lot of them were talking about impeachment.

Politico reported that “voters across the country — from California to Pennsylvania to Massachusetts — grilled House Democrats on the potential impeachment of President Donald Trump at a series of events.” What’s more, these weren’t coordinated events like the Tea Party brawls:

Instead, people lined up at the microphones eager to discuss specifics of Trump’s actions as outlined in former special counsel Robert Mueller’s report and the House’s lawsuits — a kind of detailed knowledge and energy that suggests pro-impeachment sentiment is more deep-rooted than simply an antagonistic anti-Trump movement and could be impossible for Democrats to ignore long term.

Pelosi herself faced raucous protesters at one event. They held up black tapestries printed with the words “We can’t wait” and chanted, “Which side are you on, Pelosi? Impeach!” Whether that had an effect on the Democratic leader is unknown but we do know that 134 Democrats, plus former Tea Party Republican Justin Amash of Michigan, now support impeachment.

Now that the House will be back in session, there is likely to be some lively debate over gun control — which will almost certainly die in the Senate, as everything does these days — along with some more wish-list bills for the Democrats to put on their résumés. Maybe we will also see some focused energy put toward oversight of the executive branch, which is getting more out of control by the day.

There have been some hopeful developments on that score. House Judiciary Committee chairman Jerry Nadler, D-N.Y., has announced that he considers his committee to be conducting an impeachment inquiry, even though no formal vote has been taken. Legal observers have said this should give him more ammunition before the courts as they considering all these stonewalling maneuvers by the White House.

During the break, House Intelligence Committee chairman Adam Schiff, D-Calif., confirmed that his panel is working with the Judiciary Committee in a very unusual arrangement. According to Politico, Schiff has signed off on a legal strategy that would closely bind the two committees together “as the process unfolds.” Apparently this is all about the question of Trump welcoming Russian help in 2016 as he secretly pursued a business deal in Moscow. It’s good to know that the Democrats still find this outrageous act of corruption and betrayal worthy of concern, particularly since new examples of Trump’s inexplicable and self-destructive attitude toward Russia continue to this day.

Meanwhile, it appears that a credible whistleblower has approached the House Ways and Means Committee with evidence of “inappropriate efforts to influence” the mandatory audit of President Trump’s tax returns. (These are done routinely for all presidents.) Committee chairman Richard Neal, D-Mass., has lately been pushing harder in the case to obtain Trump’s prior returns, and this will add fuel to the fire. This new information could be explosive.

Meanwhile, the House Oversight Committee under chairman Elijah Cummings, D-Md., will be working overtime looking at the administration’s outrageous actions, from the cruel border policy to the process for granting top security clearances to family members. And Nadler’s Judiciary Committee just announced that it plans to hold hearings into the Trump hush-money scheme and the oddly abrupt closure of the case by the Southern District of New York. Its members also plan to look into Trump’s reported dangling of pardons to aides who agree to illegally seize land to build the border wall. Abuse of power of that sort is what impeachment charges are made of. All of that is in addition to the ongoing Judiciary Committee investigations pertaining to obstruction of justice.

There’s more, of course. The Trump administration’s scandals number in the dozens. Perhaps that’s why Democrats have seemed so flummoxed. There are new scandals every day, and the administration and the Republicans simply refuse to acknowledge that anything is amiss. It’s disorienting.

But simply waiting for the voters to take care of everything at the ballot box (assuming there are even fair elections) in the face of Donald Trump’s high crimes and misdemeanors makes Democrats appear as out of touch with reality as those people who watch Fox and listen to Rush Limbaugh. These crimes are not discrete events that happened in the past. They are ongoing and they are serious. Let’s hope the Democrats can muster the energy to address this breakdown in our system so that people are held accountable for what they’ve done. Otherwise it’s going to happen again.

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Who are the swingers? by @BloggersRUs

Who are the swingers?
by Tom Sullivan

MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki last night reviewed polling by the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Cook Political Report on which major party swing voters favor at this early stage of the 2020 contests. They find 3 in 10 fall into that general category. The random telephone sample of 2,402 adults ages 18 and older included both cell phones and land lines and was weighted to balance for national demographics. The margin of error is +/- 3 percent.

Donald Trump: Probably vote for Trump – 9%
Democrat: Probably vote for Democrat – 13%

Only about half of those 3 in 10 (16% of all voters) are truly persuadable, the poll cautions. The polling was complete prior to the mass shootings in El Paso, Texas and Dayton, Ohio.

How do they break down on key issues (again, at this early stage of the 2020 contests)?

Climate Change
Favor Republicans – 22%

Favor Democrats – 59%

Health Care
Favor Republicans – 32%

Favor Democrats – 50%

Immigration
Favor Republicans – 44%

Favor Democrats – 49%

Economy
Favor Republicans – 48%

Favor Democrats – 35%

The polling also identifies how many among those 3 in 10 did not vote in 2016 and 2018. They are younger and more moderate:

Nearly one-fourth of swing voters say they didn’t vote in either the 2016 presidential election (24%) or in the 2018 election (22%). A slightly larger share of Democrat swing voters (33%) say they didn’t vote in the 2016 election than both independents (23%) or Republicans (21%).

But key to determining 2020 outcomes is how the younger cohort of this group will vote — if they vote — in 2020. They are less engaged in politics and less likely to believe the outcome in 2020 matters.

As Digby noted earlier this year:

Democrats win when they embrace the future with optimism and energy. All the Democratic presidents of my lifetime won on that basis. From JFK to Carter to Clinton to Obama, it was always about aspiration for progress not a retreat to the past. These numbers speak to the opening for another successful presidential race if the Democrats choose someone who can carry that message.


The future is Democratic and under-45
. The share of swing voters under 50 is 58 percent. This polling points to what issues might get them to care enough about their futures to turn out in November 2020.

Trump’s accomplices are in every level of government

Trump’s accomplices in every level of government

by digby

This is probably going on throughout the executive branch:

A Trump-appointed Justice Department official is accused of using social media to weed out Trump critics from the process for awarding grants to organizations that assist victims of crime, Reuters reports. A public employees union filed a complaint to the DOJ’s Inspector General against Office for Victims of Crime director Darlene Hutchinson Biehl—who leads the division that compensates crime victims and gives grants to local governments, nonprofits, and other crime organizations.

In an Aug. 16 complaint, the union alleged that Biehl was selecting peer reviewers—or experts hired by the department to ensure grants are given in a fair manner—based on their political views displayed on social media. More specifically, Biehl is accused of looking on platforms like Twitter and LinkedIn to see if a peer reviewer’s immigration views lined up with the Trump administration or if the peer reviewer supported prostitution legalization. The union reportedly asked the Inspector General to look into the matter in the complaint.

Somehow that doesn’t make me feel confident that we will have a real investigation.

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Warren on straws, lightbulbs and cheeseburgers

Warren on straws, lightbulbs and cheeseburgers

by digby

At the marathon climate change town halls on CNN yesterday, the hosts kept asking the candidates whether they were really going to ban lightbulbs, drinking straws and cheeseburgers. It’s so, so dumb:

Elizabeth Warren  had the best answer:

“Oh come on, give me a break,” the Massachusetts senator said at the CNN climate forum when Chris Cuomo asked her to weigh in on whether the government should mandate the kind of light bulbs Americans use in the wake of the Trump administration rolling back energy efficiency regulations.

“This is exactly what the fossil fuel industry hopes we’re all talking about,” Ms. Warren said. “They want to be able to stir up a lot of controversy around your light bulbs, around your straws and around your cheeseburgers. When 70 percent of the pollution, of the carbon that we’re throwing into the air, comes from three industries.”

The three industries contributing to the most carbon dioxide emissions in the United States right now, Ms. Warren noted, are the building industry, the electric power industry and the oil industry.

Ms. Warren repeatedly put the responsibility for addressing the Earth’s warming squarely on the shoulders of fossil fuel companies, and flatly accused major corporations of corruption. Campaign finance reform is critical to addressing emissions, she said, and warned of future climate change legislation “brought to you by Exxon.”

For the first time, Ms. Warren explicitly embraced a carbon tax before quickly pivoting away from the economic instrument as just one tool in curbing emissions. And she departed from Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont who has called for public ownership of electric utilities.

“I’m not sure that’s what gets you to the solutions,” Ms. Warren said. “I’m perfectly willing to take on giant corporations. I think I’ve been known to do that once or twice. But for me I think the way we get there is we just say, ‘Sorry guys, by 2035 you’re done, you’re not going to be using carbon-based fuels anymore.”

She added that she didn’t think there was a problem if people made a profit selling useful technology that helps the common good.

They were all thoughtful and interesting and clearly committed to making climate change a priority if they win election. But I thought Warren communicated the problem and her solutions in the most compelling language.

Update:

+1

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I’m afraid that’s a non-starter Senator Ernst

I’m afraid that’s a non-starter Senator Ernst

by digby

The “crown Jewel” of the Republican caucus, Joanie Ernst, wants to do social security “fixes” behind closed doors.

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) said at a recent town hall that lawmakers should discuss fixing Social Security “behind closed doors,” prompting a wave of criticism from liberal and advocacy groups. 

Ernst, who is running for reelection in 2020, made the remarks Saturday, according to a video posted by the Democratic super PAC American Bridge. The comments began to receive broader attention after they were reported Wednesday by the liberal news website Iowa Starting Line.

Ernst told the audience in Estherville that “there is a point in time when we as Congress will have to address the situation. And I think it’s better done sooner rather than later, to make sure that we’ve shored up that system.” 

“So it’s, you know, a broader discussion for another day,” she added. “But I do think, as various parties and members of Congress, we need to sit down behind closed doors so we’re not being scrutinized by this group or the other, and just have an open and honest conversation about what are some of the ideas that we have for maintaining Social Security in the future.”

There might have been a time when people thought that was a good idea. But I’m afraid the GOP’s whorish devotion to destroying the program over the last 80 years combined with the recent total abdication of all responsible governance under their Liege Lord Donald Trump has made them just a bit untrustworthy.

And frankly, the Democrats unwillingness to do anything but wring their hands and call Trump an icky man doesn’t fill one with confidence either.

We’ve got a very long way to go before the American people can trust their leaders to negotiate in good faith among themselves. It may be for the best if they never get there.  After all, the last time Social Security was on the agenda was when President Obama was in the White House and the Democrats were ready and willing to cut the program. The Freedom Caucus wouldn’t take yes for an answer — it didn’t go far enough.

This is going to be back on the agenda next term whether it’s Trump or a Democrat. The GOP will be demanding cuts to “entitlements”  to try to deal with the deficit. If a Democrat is in office there is going to be a lot of energy put toward other big programs so this could easily be one that goes on the auction block.

Everyone should be prepared.

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They were never going to pay for that fucking wall

They were never going to pay for that fucking wall

by digby

Even Fox and Friends has to admit that now:

Yeah, it was always obvious that this was a nonsensical boast. Mexicans were quite clear about it:

John Amato quips:

Kilmeade said, “Mexico is off the hook, he’s right, the president never should have said Mexico is going to pay for the wall. Though he says the going to get it in fees at the border crossings.”

Every person, political operative, pundit and observer knew that Trump lied when he said Mexico would pay for the wall. It was his media minions on Fox that promoted his border wall lies and then refused to call him out for it.

Steve Doocy chimed in to say: “I think he did think initially he would find a way for Mexico to pay for it, but as we know, that did not work.”

Oh, that makes it all better. Poor Doocy. Poor Brian. Poor Ainsley.

Somebody, please rub their bellies to soothe them.

lol.

For Many Americans, Trump Is the Only Standard For Truth by tristero

For Many Americans, Trump Is the Only Standard For Truth

by tristero

I believe Cilizza is mistaken re: Sharpiegate: 

Trump is so obsessed with being right (or at least being perceived as being right by his supporters) that he blocks out any and all other responsibilities or duties as President to pursue that goal.

Oh, he made a simple slip of the tongue, and he knows it and his advisers know it. He’s not obsessing about this because he needs to be right. He (and his cronies) are not letting this go because it enables them to test how powerful his ability is to manufacture truth is to his base. They’re asking: how many people actually believe Alabama was at risk simply because Trump said it was and don’t believe the debunking?

I’m sure they’re trying to find out. That is the reason the Sharpie-altered map was created. Learning how many people continue to believe Trump no matter documentary evidence to the contrary will provide the GOP a good idea of how much they can capitalize on Trump’s lies in the upcoming campaign. A lot of people actually believe that whatever he says has to be true simply because he said it. If that number is high enough, it doesn’t matter whether Trump actually loses the election. He will simply declare himself the winner and they will never, ever accept the Democrat as the legitimate president.

As I see it, this is not a joke, this is not mental illness, and this is not “having to be right.” This is deliberately capitalizing on a simple mistake in order to quantify Trump’s capacity to set the truth terms of the public discourse even in the most absurd circumstances. It is very, very ominous.

If you think we have problems, what’s going on in Britain is just …

If you think we have problems, what’s going on in Britain is just …

by digby

This analysis of where they are at this moment is from Princeton Professor Kim Scheppele, shared with her permission:

On what happens if Johnson refuses to ask the EU for an extension: It would deepen the constitutional crisis. MPs could take him to court to force him to act, but they would no doubt only know for sure that they needed to do so when it was too late for a full judicial process to run its course before the 31 October deadline. The situation reminds me very much of the Nixon tapes case, when the president suggested that he might not follow a decision of the Supreme Court. That motivated the Supreme Court to write a unanimous opinion so that Nixon had no wiggle room to avoid the judgment. And with overwhelming public opinion on the side of the Court, Nixon complied – and resigned.

I think we’re already seeing “Nixon Tapes” logic play out here. Yesterday, the Commons got through all three required readings of the Benn Bill – and it passed in the end by an even larger margin than we saw in the vote on the procedural issue of taking up the bill in the first place. More conservative MPs are resigning from the government or the party in reaction to the government’s removal of the whip from so many long-time Conservative stalwarts, many of whom favored Brexit and voted for “the deal” multiple times but who would not countenance the chaos that would be unleased with a “no deal” Brexit.

Moreover, the filibuster attempt in the House of Lords, engineered by the government, collapsed in the face of tradition that the (unelected) Lords never stand in the way of a decisive (elective) Commons majority. And conservatives in the Lords – not the world’s most radical body — are clearly also alarmed by the government’s ferocity at delivering Brexit on the deadline no matter how many bodies they leave by the side of the road as they do.

As a result of the climb-down on the Lords’ filibuster, the Benn Bill is back on track to pass the Commons next Monday. Assuming Queen’s assent (the lack of which would create another a constitutional scandal if the government advised her to refuse her assent), then Johnson will be legally bound to avoid crashing out of the EU without a transitional agreement in place. It looks now like Johnson has been soundly defeated and his party is in shambles.

This morning brings us the news that Boris Johnson’s own brother Jo, who is a member of government in addition to being an MP, has resigned his ministerial seat and will not stand for election to the next Parliament. His tweet explained: “In recent weeks I’ve been torn between family loyalty and the national interest — it’s an unresolvable tension & time for others to take on my roles as MP and Minister.” He’s the first minister to resign from a Johnson government, and it is a deep embarrassment to the PM that his own brother who presumably knows him better than anyone has decided to jump ship just when Boris was trying to crash parliamentary government to achieve his “no deal” strategy.

Yesterday, Boris Johnson – determined to bully his way out of the bind – put before the Parliament a motion for a new general election. That motion required a two-thirds vote to pass – and it failed. Many of those thrown out of the party caucus – and therefore who will have no party to stand on for election – have also indicated that they will not stand in the next election. That leaves the Tories with many open seats to defend.

Johnson is now in more or less the same position that he was in in his botched attempt to make a dramatic entrance at the 2012 Olympics in London (when he was mayor): He’s suspended awkwardly above the fray, unable to make a dignified exit, waving UK flags to entertain the crowds. For the video, a must-see if you have not seen it before but oddly prescient even if you have, see [the video above]. The Financial Times this morning describes Johnson’s situation as “effectively trapped in 10 Downing Street by a hostile parliament.”

As a result of this collapsing political support all around, and no groundswell of public support to compensate, Michael Gove – who was the first member of Johnson’s cabinet to threaten that the government would refuse to follow the law – admitted this morning that the government would now honor the Benn Bill.

On why January 31 would be a better deadline: By that date there will surely be another general election that will provide more information about what the public actually wants. The last time there was a general election, the public still had no idea what an actual Brexit would mean. (And they knew even less when the original referendum was held in 2016.) The general election in 2017 was called by Theresa May just after she had triggered Art 50 TEU starting the formal Brexit process in EU law. She called the election with the expectation that she would get a stronger parliamentary majority to strengthen her hand in the negotiations with Brussels. Instead, her parliamentary majority collapsed, forcing her into the deeply unfortunate “confidence and supply” agreement with the DUP, which has made any government compromise on the “Irish backstop” impossible. One hopes that a general election now would make somewhat clearer what the public really wants – a no-deal Brexit, Brexit with the only deal on offer, or Remain. 

The political parties seem to awkwardly lining up to produce that information – with the remains of the Conservative Party aligning with the Brexit Party to stand for a Brexit at any cost, Labour standing for no clear idea about Brexit but perhaps willing to run a second referendum, and with the Lib Dems and Greens standing for Remain. As Robert has been arguing in his posts to the list, given the first-past-the-post system in which the plurality winner wins the seat, the Tories only need about 30-35% in a wide range of districts to win the general election. If the opposition can’t get its act together to run one candidate in each seat either for Remain or for a negotiated Brexit, then the Tories could well win a general election on a no-deal Brexit platform. But it must have come as a surprise to Johnson just how unified a new parliamentary majority became once a no-deal Brexit became the default possibility. Among other things, it peeled away a decisive number of members of his own party. If the opposition to no deal can maintain that level of coherent objection to “no deal” – but only if they can – then the general election will at least rule out one option even if it doesn’t generate a clear sense of a constructive alternative.

Of course, shuffling the deck with a new general election doesn’t mean that all problems will be solved by the end of January. But there will be more information about what the British public actually wants. That’s what they are all counting on in another extension of the deadline.

There’s more to report on the court cases: The Scottish case did not succeed in getting an injunction against prorogation and it is being argued in appeal today. The Miller/Major case in the London courts is being argued today – details to come. But prorogation is a much less serious matter now that it seems the Parliament will be able to tie the government’s hands before it is prorogued.

If you were a history student of the future reading about this time you would conclude that people were blind not to see that the world was coming apart.

Meanwhile:

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Whatever you do don’t call the gravedigger of democracy Moscow Mitch

Whatever you do don’t call the gravedigger of democracy Moscow Mitch

by digby

Yet he enthusiastically backs the president who has made stupid, insulting nicknames his personal brand:

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell complained about the nickname “Moscow Mitch” during a radio interview, calling it “modern day McCarthyism.” On The Hugh Hewitt Show show Tuesday, the Kentucky Republican said it was “unbelievable for a Cold Warrior like me who spent a career standing up to the Russians to be given a moniker like that.” McConnell said he “can laugh about things like the Grim Reaper, but calling me Moscow Mitch is over the top.” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called McConnell “Moscow Mitch” in August for his inaction on legislation for election security and gun restrictions. “This is what we’re up against with the hard left today in America,” McConnell complained in the interview.

So, Moscow Mitch it is.

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Get the net by @BloggersRUs

Get the net
by Tom Sullivan

“We have serious problems to solve, and we need serious people to solve them,” President Andrew Shepherd told a press conference in The American President (1995). Michael Douglas was acting. The actual U.S. president is faking (2019).

There are serious problems that need attention this morning — hurricane relief and climate change are just two — but it is hard to avoid mentioning Donald Trump’s juvenile and utterly insane “war on reality.”

While ten Democratic candidates for president answered climate change questions in a rolling CNN town hall Wednesday night, the hashtags #SharpieTrump and #SharpieGate blew up the Internet.

Digby provided the short version yesterday:

In case you don’t know what this is all about, this spells the whole stupid thing out. Long story short: Trump tweeted out that Alabama was in Hurricane Dorian’s path over the weekend and he was wrong. Instead of admitting it he has doubled down and offered this ridiculous “proof” with a crude sharpie pen line extending the hurricane path.

The map Trump used to prove he was right all along was a week old. But wait. There’s more.

He denied knowing how the image was altered and insisted Alabama was in the original forecast track. It wasn’t. But Trump provided visual proof he was right about that too.

Really? Really?

Naturally, the Internet had a field day:

#SharpieGate is still going strong this morning. Donald J. Trump is still running the Executive Branch. His aides still allow him to handle scissors.

The acting chief of state got into the presidentin’ business claiming he would stop the world from laughing at us (him).

And now? They’re still laughing. We are teaching a new generation to duck and cover. The House impeachment inquiry has a one way ticket to Palookaville. The Trump Cabinet hasn’t the integrity of the supermarket tabloid that covered up for him. Americans across the country are nursing gunshot wounds. The dead don’t need to.

Meanwhile, Trump makes a mockery of the U.S. Constitution, lines his pockets with taxpayers’ and foreigners’ dough, and spends his days hurling insults and pulling stunts unworthy of Bart Simpson. Will the men in white coats, please, throw a net over this guy?