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Month: March 2020

Trump holds grudges, Jeff

He’s not in a forgiving mood:

There were several key primaries taking place all around the country last night — including in Alabama, where President Donald Trump’s former Attorney General Jeff Sessions finished well short of a majority in the state’s Senate primary. Now, Sessions will have to face a runoff on March 31 against former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville — but Trump may have just doomed Sessions’ chances for a congressional comeback.

While Trump stayed silent in the primary, he ripped Sessions on Twitter this morning, saying “this is what happens to someone who … doesn’t have the wisdom or courage to stare down & end the phony Russia Witch Hunt.” Trump’s intervention in the deep red state, where the president is immensely popular, could be enough to end Sessions’ comeback bid and political career, writes James Arkin.

He’ll probably come around if Sessions prevails in the runoff, but Sessions is going to have to do some world-class fluffing and bootlicking before then. He’s up to the task, I’m sure.

Remember, there is no longer an actual Republican Party. It is a Trump cult. And Sessions was excommunicated for having a tiny bit of integrity. The lesson is stark to all who wish to participate.

The president is botching the coronavirus response

Last Wednesday, Donald Trump held his first press conference about the coronavirus epidemic. His point man on the crisis, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, made an important observation. He said, “What every one of our experts and leaders have been saying for more than a month now remains true: The degree of risk has the potential to change quickly, and we can expect to see more cases in the United States.” Ann Schuchat of the Centers for Disease Control backed him up, saying that the U.S. can expect more cases. Then the president took the podium and totally contradicted them:

When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.

As Steve Benen at MSNBC said at the time, “It wasn’t exactly George W. Bush’s ‘Mission Accomplished’ moment, but Trump’s unscripted comments were certainly its rhetorical cousin.”

Our hosts unpack the complex technology needed to make a smartphone, and U.S.-China relations.

Indeed. More than 100 cases have since been identified across the country, with nine deaths. Those numbers are growing rapidly. That hasn’t stopped Trump’s happy talk one bit. On Tuesday afternoon as he was setting off from the White House, a reporter asked him if he thought the virus was going to spread all across the country. He replied:

Well, it’s — anything can happen, but I wouldn’t say inevitable at all. No. I wouldn’t say — we’ve really — we’ve done a good job by doing it and combating it so early. We have the best people in the world. And I think we’re getting a lot of credit for having made that early move. So, no, I don’t think that’s inevitable at all.

That is again a direct contradiction of what the health experts are all saying. The virus is spreading, and it’s spreading exponentially.

Trump has been doing this from the beginning, apparently believing, like Tinker Bell that if he just claps his hands it will all go away. Or, to be more precise, if he just tells everyone that he’s doing “a fantastic job” they won’t notice that people are getting sick with this lethal virus all over the country and his government is botching the response.

The first problem is Trump’s obvious ignorance of science and his inability to know when to shut up. On Monday, he held one of his cabinet room spectacles with CEOs of Big Pharma to talk about the possibility of a vaccine. Try as they might, they found it very difficult to make him understand that it was not possible to develop one that could be tested and distributed to the public any sooner than a year or so from now. 

Our president may be a very stable genius, but he doesn’t know how any of this works:

In a move reminiscent of the famous lecture undertaken by national security officials at the start of his term, culminating in former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s famous comment that Trump was “a fucking moron,” public health experts took the president to the National Institutes of Health on Tuesday, in hopes that they could illustrate for him the kind of work they must do to find a vaccine and therapeutic drugs to treat the virus. It is unclear from the press availability afterward that they were successful.

The Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, had to go to great lengths to ensure that the president was happy. It is embarrassing that they have to put this in such juvenile terms:

So, what we did is we just had the opportunity to take the president and show him the actual individual researchers who are doing the things that we’ve been talking about. And what they were referring to is that the actual scientists — middle-level, senior, junior — were there and explained to the president what I have actually been explaining to the press, but showed it on graphics: How after the virus was identified, the sequence was taken and put into this platform called messenger RNA. And what happened is that, literally, within a period of a couple of days, we were able to stick it in.

Trump was impressed:

NIH is the home of — I mean, I see so many different factors, and it’s true — the greatest doctors. I’ve heard that for so long. I heard that from my uncle, Dr. John Trump. He — big fan of what you’ve done and how it started. And it’s really been an incredible situation.

You may recall Trump mentioning his brilliant uncle, with whom he shares his excellent genes, once or twice:

Fauci was clearly walking a fine line, as are all the experts, trying desperately not to offend the president with inconvenient facts while also trying desperately to impart information to ensure public safety. He said as much in an interview:

“You should never destroy your own credibility. And you don’t want to go to war with a president,” Fauci, who has been the country’s top infectious diseases expert through a dozen outbreaks and six presidents, told POLITICO in an interview Friday. “But you got to walk the fine balance of making sure you continue to tell the truth.”

It is obvious that the word has gone forth that all members of the crisis team must genuflect to Trump’s great leadership before every briefing.

I am impatient with the people inside the administration, like the “Anonymous” op-ed author, who flatter themselves by insisting they are saving the republic by kowtowing to Trump. But these scientists are another story. They are literally trying to save lives and this president is so self-serving that they must play these games in order to appease him so he’ll allow them to do their work. 

Hayes was referring to the fact that the most pressing problem is the lack of testing around the country as the virus grows unchecked. Researchers are fully capable of doing what needs to be done about finding a vaccine and therapies for the disease. Trump, however, is obsessed with a quick cure, so they all have to spend time educating him about it when they could be informing the public and speeding the response.

This absurd ritual is playing itself out all over the government. The New York Times reported on Tuesday :

Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper has urged American military commanders overseas not to make any decisions related to the coronavirus that might surprise the White House or run afoul of President Trump’s messaging on the growing health challenge, American officials said.

The commander of U.S. forces in South Korea, where 4,000 cases have been identified, said he might have to make urgent decisions regarding the health of his troops. 

Reportedly the latest briefing this week was much more sober and informative than they’ve been in the past. Unfortunately, they are not being televised.

No doubt this was done to prevent the president from hearing any bad news. But that also means the public won’t hear it either.

My Salon column reprinted with permission

Outbreak Hotel

Friends in Seattle recommended following Seattle area news outlets because amidst Super Tuesday reporting what they are hearing about the COVID-19 outbreak there is under-reported. So, here you go:

Seattle Times:

Nine people in Washington have died from COVID-19, the illness caused by a new coronavirus known as SARS-CoV-2, and officials say that an extraordinary effort to contain and manage the health crisis is moving toward a new stage.

As of 6 p.m. Tuesday, at least 27 people in King and Snohomish counties had been diagnosed with COVID-19. Seven new cases were announced Tuesday in King County, bringing the county’s overall total to 21.

The majority of King County’s cases are linked to the Life Care Center of Kirkland, and seven of the nine people who have died were residents of the nursing home. This has prompted a wave of questions from family members with relatives inside Life Care and scrutiny over how prepared the care facility and others are for an outbreak.

KOMO News:

People living in White Center are voicing concern after King County started setting up a temporary quarantine village for people with coronavirus in the middle of a neighborhood.

King County has started work on temporary housing for people who may need to be quarantined because of exposure to coronavirus.

The county started moving in trailers Tuesday afternoon in the White Center neighborhood in the 200 block of southwest 112th Street. None of the neighbors in the area had a clue about the temporary housing and many were asking why was their neighborhood chosen.

The units will not have water or sewer at first. Porta potties will be provided. Memories of SNL’s “sanitized for your protection” skit from 1977.

Siting modular isolation trailers follows news from a couple of days ago that King County officials plan to purchase a hotel to house patients during quarantine. The location of Outbreak Hotel has not been announced. Perhaps “down at the end of Lonely Street”?

Closer to home:

The first presumptive case of the novel coronavirus in North Carolina is linked to a Kirkland, Washington nursing home facility where five residents were sick and later died, authorities in the Tar Heel state said Tuesday.

The new patient is from Wake County, home to Raleigh and 1.1 million people. North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said the person was exposed at a center in Washington where there is a Covid-19 outbreak while on a trip.

The man is in isolation at home. His test has not been confirmed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta. Officials are investigating how many others may have come in contact with him between Seattle and Raleigh.

On how many airplanes and airports?

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For The Win, 3rd Edition is ready for download. 2,600+ counties contacted, roughly 900 “opens,” over 400 downloads. (It’s a lead-a-horse effort.) Request a copy of my free countywide election mechanics guide at ForTheWin.us. This is what winning looks like.

Another Nunes Toadie Rises to Power

The corruption of national security continues unabated:

A White House lawyer and former counsel to the House Intelligence Committee under Devin Nunes has been named senior director for intelligence on the National Security Council, the latest instance of President Donald Trump elevating a trusted loyalist to control the intelligence community.

Michael Ellis, a deputy to White House lawyer John Eisenberg, started in the role on Monday, according to a senior administration official and a former national security official. Ellis left the counsel’s office, so he won’t be dual-hatted with his new job.

The office of the director for intelligence serves as the day-to-day connective tissue between the intelligence community and the White House. Sensitive information coming in from the intelligence agencies will go to that office, especially if it is in hard copy form. The office also coordinates covert action activities between the White House and the intelligence community, and it’s where the NSC server is housed that stores the most sensitive classified information.

Marc Polymeropoulos, who served 26 years in the CIA before retiring from the agency’s Senior Intelligence Service in June 2019, said the position “traditionally has gone to a senior member of the intelligence community, such as the CIA, the State Department, or NSA. It was an apolitical position, coveted and also seen as highly career advancing.”

Polymeropoulos added that the role is particularly significant given it oversees critical intelligence community functions such as covert action. “Managing the interagency process on covert action as well as advising the national security adviser on this key aspect of American power took finesse and skill,” he said.

So, of course Trump puts some wingnut Nunes crony in the job. I guess his houseboy wasn’t available.

Can we get through 10 more months without Trump destroying the world?

God, I hope so…

Don’t buy this book

He had his chance to be a patriot and he wanted to sell books instead. So it’s hard to feel sorry for him now:

The publication of John Bolton’s book about his time working for President Trump, “The Room Where It Happened,” has been pushed back from March until May due to the Trump White House’s review of the manuscript.

The delay revives questions about whether the government is unfairly holding up Bolton’s book for partisan political reasons.”I hope it’s not suppressed,” Bolton said at a public speaking engagement on February 17.

Bolton struck a deal to write the book shortly after stepping aside as Trump’s national security adviser in September, after 17 months in that post. Simon & Schuster reportedly paid about $2 million for the rights to the book.

On January 26, Simon & Schuster announced the book’s title — which alludes to the Oval Office — and a March 17 release date.That same day, The New York Times reported that the book contained information that was relevant to the Trump impeachment inquiry.According to The Times, Bolton’s manuscript alleges that Trump directed him to help with his pressure campaign to get damaging information about Democrats from Ukraine.

Bolton said on February 17 that “there are portions of the manuscript that deal with Ukraine,” but he called those portions “the sprinkles on an ice cream sundae, in terms of the book. This is an effort to write history.”Bolton’s lawyer submitted the manuscript to the White House for “prepublication security review” on December 30. This is a normal process for former government officials like Bolton, to ensure that no classified information is disclosed.

But what’s unfolded since then is not normal.

President Trump has lashed out at Bolton and, according to the Washington Post, has “directly weighed in on the White House review.”The Post reported on February 21 that Trump has told staffers that “everything he uttered to the departed aide about national security is classified and that he will seek to block the book’s publication, according to two people familiar with the conversations.”In response, Bolton’s lawyer said the “pre-publication review” is proceeding and “we have nothing to say beyond that.”Publishers typically need more than a few weeks to print and distribute books, so the March 17 date has been looking untenable.

On Tuesday morning Simon & Schuster adjusted the online pre-order pages for the book and announced May 12 as the new release date.”The new date reflects the fact that the government review of the work is ongoing,” a company spokesperson said.

They can hold it up until Trump’s last day in office as far as I’m concerned. Bolton played cute and now he’s suffering for it. As he deserves.

Don’t buy this book. He should not be rewarded for his avarice.

Intimidation by lawsuit

Trump is counting on the courts to help him silence media criticism. It’s very creepy:

The Trump campaign filed a libel lawsuit against The Washington Post on Tuesday for allegedly “intentionally publishing false statements” against President Trump’s re-election effort. The lawsuit took issue with two opinion pieces published in the newspaper in June 2019. The lawsuit claims the first article, by Post opinion writer Greg Sargent, stated that ex-Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report concluded that Trump’s 2016 campaign “tried to conspire with” Russia—which they say is not what Mueller concluded. However, Sargent did note in his piece that “Mueller did not find sufficient evidence of a criminal conspiracy.”

The lawsuit also claimed the second article, from Post opinion writer Paul Waldman, suggested Russia and North Korea would give “aid” to the 2020 campaign now that Trump “invited them to offer their assistance.” “There has never been any statement by anyone associated with the Campaign or the administration ‘inviting’ Russia or North Korea to assist the Campaign in 2019 or beyond,” the lawsuit states. “There also has never been any reporting that the Campaign has ever had any contact with North Korea relating to any United States election.”

The campaign is asking for “compensatory damages in the millions of dollars.” The lawsuit comes after the campaign filed a similar lawsuit against The New York Times last week.

With all the lies Trump tells about everything you’d think he’d be a little bit cautious about free speech issues. But again, he’s counting on all of McConnell’s unqualified wingnut judges to back him up. Kavanaugh and Gorsuch almost certainly will. Recall that Kavanaugh promised payback in his confirmation hearing:

“The consequences will extend long past my nomination. The consequences will be with us for decades. This grotesque character assassination will dissuade confident and good people of all political persuasions from serving our country, and as we all know, in the political system of the early 2000s, what goes around comes around.”

We don’t know diddly

About the spread of the coronavirus just yet.

We know, irrefutably, one thing about the coronavirus in the United States: The number of cases reported in every chart and table is far too low.

The data are untrustworthy because the processes we used to get them were flawed. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s testing procedures missed the bulk of the cases. They focused exclusively on travelers, rather than testing more broadly, because that seemed like the best way to catch cases entering the country.

Just days ago, it was not clear that the virus had spread solely from domestic contact at all. But then cases began popping up with no known international connection. What public-health experts call “community spread” had arrived in the United States. The virus would not be stopped by tight borders, because it was already propagating domestically. Trevor Bedford’s lab at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, which studies viral evolution, concluded there is “firm evidence” that, at least in Washington State, the coronavirus had been spreading undetected for weeks. Now different projections estimate that 20 to 1,500 people have already been infected in the greater Seattle area. In California, too, the disease appears to be spreading, although the limited testing means that no one is quite sure how far.

In total, fewer than 500 people have been tested across the country (although the CDC has stopped reporting that number in its summary of the outbreak). As a result, the current “official” case count inside the United States stood at 43 as of this morning (excluding cruise-ship cases). This number is wrong, yet it’s still constantly printed and quoted. In other contexts, we’d call this what it is: a subtle form of misinformation.

This artificially low number means that for the past few weeks, we’ve seen massive state action abroad and only simmering unease domestically. While Chinese officials were enacting a world-historic containment effort—putting more than 700 million people under some kind of movement restriction, quarantining tens of millions of people, and placing others under new kinds of surveillance—and American public-health officials were staring at the writing on the wall that the disease was extremely likely to spread in the U.S., the public-health response was stuck in neutral. The case count in the U.S. was not increasing at all. Preparing for a sizable outbreak seemed absurd when there were fewer than 20 cases on American soil. Now we know that the disease was already spreading and that it was the U.S. response that was stalled.

Meanwhile, South Korean officials have been testing more than 10,000 people a day, driving up the country’s reported-case count. Same goes for Italy: high test rate, high number of cases. (Now some Italian politicians want to restrict testing.) In China, the official data say the country has more than 80,000 cases, but the real number might be far, far higher because of all the people who had mild(er) cases and were turned away from medical care, or never sought it in the first place. That may be cause for reassurance (though not everyone agrees), because the total number of cases is the denominator in the simple equation that yields a fatality rate: deaths divided by cases. More cases with the same number of deaths means that the disease is likely less deadly than the data show.

The point is that every country’s numbers are the result of a specific set of testing and accounting regimes. Everyone is cooking the data, one way or another. And yet, even though these inconsistencies are public and plain, people continue to rely on charts showing different numbers, with no indication that they are not all produced with the same rigor or vigor. This is bad. It encourages dangerous behavior such as cutting back testing to bring a country’s numbers down or slow-walking testing to keep a country’s numbers low.

Read: A coronavirus quarantine in America could be a giant legal mess

The other problem is, now that the U.S. appears to be ramping up testing, the number of cases will grow quickly. Public-health officials are currently cautioning people not to worry as that happens, but it will be hard to disambiguate what proportion of the ballooning number of cases is the result of more testing and what proportion is from the actual spread of the virus.

People trust data. Numbers seem real. Charts have charismatic power. People believe what can be quantified. But data do not always accurately reflect the state of the world. Or as one scholar put it in a book title: “Raw Data” Is an Oxymoron.

The reality gap between American numbers and American cases is wide. Regular citizens and decision makers cannot rely on only the numbers to make decisions. Sometimes quantification actually obscures as much as it reveals.

It’s just such good news that we have a government led by a president who is honest as the day is long. We can trust him to always tell the truth and deal with reality.

So, no need to worry. It’s all good.

Trump already had his “Mission Accomplished” moment

And it’s a bad one:

Early on during [last] Wednesday’s White House briefing on the coronavirus outbreak, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar stressed an important and accurate point. “[W]hat every one of our experts and leaders have been saying for more than a month now remains true: The degree of risk has the potential to change quickly, and we can expect to see more cases in the United States,” the cabinet secretary explained.

Shortly thereafter, the CDC’s Anne Schuchat added that while the United States currently has “low levels” of confirmed coronavirus cases, “we do expect more cases.”

And then it was Donald Trump’s turn, at which point Americans heard their president say largely the opposite.

“[W]hen you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.”

It wasn’t exactly George W. Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” moment, but Trump’s unscripted comments were certainly its rhetorical cousin.

Six days later:

The number of coronavirus cases continues to climb in the U.S.  The new disease has killed six people in the country, four from one nursing home near Seattle and two others in the same county. The cluster of deaths at the nursing facility in King County highlights the serious threat the disease poses to the elderly and infirm. There were just over 100 cases in 15 states as of Tuesday morning, with New Hampshire and Georgia being the most recent to join the battle against the virus.

As the head of the World Health Organization announced new estimates suggesting the disease was far more lethal overall than previously suspected — but also less transmissible — schools and hospitals across the U.S. stepped up preparations for a potential pandemic.

While officials acknowledge the threat posed by the virus, both the Trump administration and the World Health Organization continue to say it’s a manageable threat.

The top government economists from the U.S. and the world’s six other biggest economies held a conference call Tuesday and then pledge to do everything in their power to mitigate the impact of the virus — and fears of it — on global economies. Shortly thereafter, the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate by half a point.

Globally, outbreaks in South Korea, Italy, Iran and Japan have continued growing fast, but draconian control measures in epicenter country China appeared to be paying off. China’s daily rate of new infections continued to fall Tuesday, showing it is possible to contain the disease, even in the hardest-hit communities.

But with more than 90,000 people infected and 3,100 killed by COVID-19, exactly what measures can and should be implemented to rein in the virus in societies less-strictly controlled than China remained unclear. As WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Monday, “we are in uncharted territory.” 

It is certainly uncharted territory, especially since the government is acting like Keystone Kops and we are led by a mendacious imbecile.

It is documented that Trump has been frantically trying to downplay this crisis for his own political reasons.

That’s obviously happening all over the government, including the public health officials who are clearly required to fluff and fete Trump before they say anything.

Before voting today (Super Tuesday)

Consider not thinking yourself into knots before you vote today. This is from a February article in Nautilus:

Last summer, in a New York Times article about Warren, a voter stated, “I love her enthusiasm. She’s smart, she’s very smart. I think she would make an amazing president,” before adding, “I’m worried about whether she can win.” The voter’s sentiment is reflected in a 2019 poll in which 74 percent of Democrats said they would be comfortable with a female president, yet only 33 percent of them thought their neighbors felt the same way.

We do this all the time. We go straight from hope to despair, from possibility to worst-case scenario without stopping for a breath. It’s flawed thinking, but tough to identify from inside your skull.

Bella DePaulo, Ph.D. commented on the phenomenon calling it “pluralistic ignorance” (no offense):

The pluralistic ignorance process goes like this: You feel a certain way. So do most other people. But you don’t realize other people feel the same way you do. You think it’s just the opposite. You behave based on your false beliefs about other people, rather than behaving in a way that is true to yourself. 

It’s “pluralistic” because you are holding onto two sets of beliefs at once — your true beliefs and what you think other people believe. It is “ignorance,” because you are wrong about other people’s beliefs. 

It is also a shared ignorance. You think your favorite candidate can’t get elected because you assume most people would not vote for that candidate. Lots of other people are doing the exact same thing – they have the same favorite candidate that you do, but they also assume that other people won’t vote for the candidate. That candidate can end up dropping out of the race or getting defeated, not because people didn’t believe in that candidate, but because of the pluralistic ignorance of thinking their own belief in the candidate was not shared, when it was. Too many people end up voting based on their mistaken beliefs about other people’s preferences, rather than their own preferences, which really are popular. 

As a shy kid, I always fretted that people were looking at me and judging. It took way too long to realize other people were too busy worrying about how others perceived them to bother paying attention to me. That mistaken belief cost me a lot of years disappeared into the wallpaper. I don’t do that anymore. You should not either.

Please go vote and be true to yourselves. Bring a friend or two.

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

For The Win, 3rd Edition is ready for download. 2,600+ counties contacted, roughly 900 “opens,” over 400 downloads. (It’s a lead-a-horse effort.) Request a copy of my free countywide election mechanics guide at ForTheWin.us. This is what winning looks like.