I will admit that this new analysis from Larry Sabato surprises me a bit. Lindsey Graham?
— The focus on the evenly-matched battle for the Senate has in some ways narrowed to four GOP-held seats: Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina.
— Practically speaking, Democrats probably have to win all four, and the White House, to win the Senate.
— However, the map may be expanding. Democrats’ best bet among the other targets probably is Montana, but we still see a small Republican edge there.
— We are making two rating changes this week on the periphery of the Senate map: Alaska and South Carolina move from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
I doubt he’s really in trouble. But if this change is recent it may be that Graham’s obsequious Trump bootlicking may have actually hurt him a little bit. What’s Lindsey going to do? Hug Trump even tighter? How is that possible? If he moves away from him, he risks losing the cult. Oh, what a dilemma.
Taking the Senate out of McConnell’s hands is as important as removing Trump from the White House. They are the Tweedledee and Tweedledum of American Carnage. If this holds up there is a slight chance that we might actually be able to stop this ship of state from completely sinking.
Iowa, Oklahoma and other states reopening soon amid the coronavirus outbreak are issuing early warnings to their worried workers: Return to your jobs or risk losing unemployment benefits.
The threats have been loudest among Republican leaders in recent days, reflecting their anxious attempts to jump-start local economic recovery roughly two months after most businesses shut their doors. In Iowa, for example, state officials even have posted a public call for companies to get in touch if an “employee refuses to return to work.”
For some states, the concern is that residents who are offered their old jobs back simply may not accept them, choosing instead to continue tapping historically generous unemployment aid. The $2 trillion congressional coronavirus relief package signed by President Trump in March greatly added to weekly benefit checks for out-of-work Americans, and some people may be earning more than they did previously.
Business leaders say they desperately need workers to return to stores, restaurants and other operations to stay afloat financially. Labor activists, however, contend the reality is far more complicated: Some now-unemployed Americans weren’t making much money in the first place, so they may not want to risk their safety just to return to underpaid old gigs.
In the process, some states’ public comments have frustrated federal lawmakers, labor activists and public health officials, who say forcing workers to return so quickly might be dangerous — and could undermine the country’s response to the deadly pandemic.
“These states are offering people the choice to endanger your life or starve,” said Damon A. Silvers, the director of policy and special counsel for the AFL-CIO.
That this is even an issue is a sign of how sick this country’s political class has become.
I know this person is almost certainly suffering from some kind of mental illness so I feel sympathy for her. But it’s amazing just how much the Trump fever swamp attracts and inspired these folks:
An Illinois woman inspired by pro-Trump QAnon conspiracy theory videos traveled to New York City on Wednesday with more than a dozen illegal knives and threatened to kill former Vice President Joe Biden, according to police and her own social media posts.
New York police officers arrested dancer Jessica Prim, 37, on Wednesday after she began to act strangely on a city pier. In a live video Prim posted on Facebook of her arrest. She ranted about saving children and claimed she had come to New York because of an internet conspiracy theory video about a “cabal” of pedophile Democrats.
“Have you guys heard about the kids?” a tearful Prim said as she was arrested. “OK, I’m not lying.”
Shortly before her arrest, Prim posted on Facebook that Hillary Clinton and Biden “need to be taken out.”
“Hillary Clinton and her assistant, Joe Biden and Tony Podesta need to be taken out in the name of Babylon!” Prim wrote. “I can’t be set free without them gone. Wake me up!!!!!”
At another point during her arrest, Prim said she believed Donald Trump was talking to her directly during his coronavirus press conferences. Prim is facing more than a dozen counts of criminal possession of a weapon over the knives, as well as a marijuana possession charge, according to the New York Daily News.
Prim’s Facebook page is filled with references to QAnon, a conspiracy theory that holds that top Democrats like Biden and Clinton are cannibal-pedophiles scheming to undermine Donald Trump. Prim encouraged her Facebook fans to check out QAnon “clues,” anonymous posts from the anonymous person or group of people who direct QAnon believers. In a Facebook video posted just hours before her arrest, Prim ranted about a fictitious video — ”Frazzled Rip” — that QAnon believers claim features Clinton and former Clinton aide Huma Abedin murdering a child.
Prim appears to have gone to the pier because she was convinced it was near the U.S. Navy Hospital Ship Comfort, the hospital ship that was sent to New York City to help with the coronavirus pandemic. A faction of QAnon believers have become obsessed with the Comfort, convinced that it’s being used to rescue “mole children” abused by the “cabal.”
“I’m at the Comfort,” Prim said in the video.
In fact, Prim had mistaken the Comfort for the U.S.S. Intrepid, a former aircraft carrier that now serves as a museum.
This isn’t the first time QAnon believers inspired by fringe internet content have turned to real-world crime. Two QAnon supporters have been charged with murders apparently inspired by the conspiracy theory, including the slaying of a top New York mafia boss. Another supporter pleaded guilty to committing a terrorist incident near the Hoover Dam, while other supporters have been involved in two separate child kidnapping plots.
This also isn’t the first time the hospital ships have drawn conspiracy theorists’ attention. In April, a train engineer in Los Angeles allegedly derailed a train near the U.S. Navy Hospital Ship Mercy because he was convinced something suspicious was happening onboard.
There is a deep sickness in our culture that produces this sort of mass delusion. And it is a mass delusion. Remember, the Q-Anon true believers are all over the Trump rallies:
In an interview with Reuters in the Oval Office on Wednesday, Trump talked tough on China and said he was looking at different options in terms of consequences for Beijing over the virus. “I can do a lot,” he said.
Trump has been heaping blame on China for a global pandemic that has killed at least 60,000 people in the United States, according to a Reuters tally, and thrown the U.S. economy into a deep recession, putting in jeopardy his hopes for another four-year term.
The Republican president, often accused of not acting early enough to prepare the United States for the spread of the novel coronavirus, said he believed China should have been more active in letting the world know about the virus much sooner.
Asked whether he was considering the use of tariffs or even debt write-offs for China, Trump would not offer specifics. “There are many things I can do,” he said. “We’re looking for what happened.”
“China will do anything they can to have me lose this race,” said Trump. He said he believes Beijing wants his Democratic opponent, Joe Biden, to win the election to ease the pressure Trump has placed on China over trade and other issues.
“They’re constantly using public relations to try to make it like they’re innocent parties,” he said of Chinese officials.
In Beijing, China’s foreign ministry said it has no interest in interfering in the U.S. presidential election.
There is no American adversary in the world who doesn’t want to see Trump re-elected. He has done more to weaken this country in every possible way than any American leader in history. They know he is a fool.
On the other hand, maybe China is actually more responsible than we are and would like to see the whole world be a safer place. But I wouldn’t bet on it. All the authoritarians love this guy.
President Trump’s handling of the coronavirus crisis has produced a political emergency for the White House, with a raft of signs suddenly pointing to possible big trouble when he faces re-election six months from now.
The state of play: His favorability rating, mostly stable throughout his presidency, has ticked down in Gallup to 43%, from 49% on March 22 — and a furious Trump blew up at his campaign team last week, snapping at campaign manager Brad Parscale: “I am not f—ing losing to Joe Biden,” AP reported.
The backdrop was a series of swing-state polls showing real trouble for Trump, and a string of polls showing older voters — a bedrock group for the president — drifting to Biden.
Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.), a Trump loyalist who’s up for re-election, said during an off-the-record conference call this week, according to CNN: “The state of Georgia is in play” — a jarring read on a traditionally red state where Trump beat Hillary Clinton by five points.
Trump led in Florida polls in March but is now modestly behind Biden, per the Tampa Times.
A senior White House official, reflecting the view of many in Trump’s orbit, told Axios: “I think you can take a snapshot of the first of May, and it’ll be incredibly different than the first of November.”
“The likelihood you’ll have several months of job growth and a better economy in November is a real thing.”
Behind the scenes: Trump administration officials privately tell Axios’ Alayna Treene and Margaret Talev that the virus has made them more worried about the election than they’ve ever been.
Trump had been riding a strong economy his entire time in office. Now, the Nov. 3 outcome could well depend on whether he’s able to conjure signs of recovery out of this calamity, with 26.5 million jobs lost in five weeks.
Between the lines: All this comes amid yet more West Wing turnover, with aides divided about how to respond.
And the Trump playbook — punch back, blame someone else — has been off-key in this moment.
Ya think? I guess what surprises me is that they thought their tepid poll number before this, which haven’t really changed that much, were so great that he was a shoo-in. On what planet is a 43% average, even in the electoral college says the election is in the bag?
Oh right. They cheat.
Here he is projecting (in a really incoherent, weird way) his own dishonesty just this morning:
We can’t let the Fake News, and their partner, the Radical Left, Do Nothing Democrats, get away with stealing the Election. They tried that in 2016. How did that work out?
"You shouldn't be hearing about testing, but that's the last thing [the media] can complain about I guess … I don't know that all that [testing] is even necessary" — Trump downplays importance of testing, which he suggests is a luxury (experts say more testing is necessary) pic.twitter.com/2eMSedp4aR
Trump has met with corporate CEOs at the White House for three straight days but it's unclear whether he's talked to the family of a single coronavirus victim whose family he didn't already know https://t.co/YEBHfchchS
"If we lose 65,000 people" — Trump has moved the goalposts from no deaths to fewer deaths than the Swine Flu to 60,000 deaths & now to 65,000 or 70,000 deaths.
He's positioned himself to proclaim any death toll smaller than 2 million Americans as a reflection of his good work. pic.twitter.com/y0pOhf3iEE
Meanwhile, here he is hard at work this morning last night:
I must admit that Lyin’ Brian Williams is, while dumber than hell, quite a bit smarter than Fake News @CNN “anchorman” Don Lemon, the “dumbest man on television”. Then you have Psycho Joe “What Ever Happened To Your Girlfriend?” Scarborough, another of the low I.Q. individuals!
That’s when he isn’t wanking furiously about the Russia investigation.
He’s worse than usual. And he could win re-election anyway. I guess it serves us right for ever allowing such a monster to get within a mile of then the first place. But little kids don’t deserve this.
On the political left are plenty of armchair activists as quick as Foghorn Leghorn to tell those actually doing how things ought to be done. Nancy Pelosi, “The Democrats” or whoever are doing it all wrong. Now a smart, ah say, a smart progressive would….
It’s like a non-driver watching someone operate a clutch from the passenger seat. The principle sounds simple. It looks simple. But try doing it the first time. God help you the first time the light turns green and you’re on an uphill incline with the driver behind you riding your bumper.
Donald Trump is one of those kibitzers from the right side of the political spectrum. Malignant narcissist that he is, he knew he could be the best American president in history. Ever. Zero experience in government? Not an obstacle. Knowing nothing was no obstacle. (He knows more about everything than anybody.) Being president would be a lark. He and his grifter family could make out like the bandits they are.
It’s certain the Beast doesn’t have a clutch and as president Trump would never have to drive it. What he does face is navigating a deadly global pandemic that has already killed 60,000-plus Americans and ground to a halt what Trump still claims credit for as “the greatest economy in the history of the world.” He’s found out being president is much harder than it looks. Or he would find out if he attempted to actually do the job.
Ezra Klein on Wednesday summarized the Donald Trump presidency in 54 words:
Donald Trump does not want to be in charge of any of this. He wants to play president on TV. He doesn’t want responsibility for governance in a time of crisis, and in every way he can, he’s refusing to do that job, and lashing out at those who ask him to do it.
Donald Trump does not want to be in charge of any of this. He wants to play president on TV. He doesn't want responsibility for governance in a time of crisis, and in every way he can, he's refusing to do that job, and lashing out at those who ask him to do it.
Exactly. And this was clear from the very beginning. Recall that, after securing the nomination, he reportedly offered Kasich the vice presidency with the promise that Kasich could actually run the government while Trump would “Make America great again.”
Trump: "I've been at the White House now for many months, and I'd like to get out." He traveled multiple times last month.
Trump is bored with all this dodging responsibility, not answering tough questions, and being stuck in the White House. He wants to get out, play some rounds of golf, hold an adulation rally or two:
President Trump on Wednesday said he plans to resume traveling next week with a trip to Arizona after spending the past month largely cloistered in the White House due to the coronavirus pandemic.
“I think I’m going to Arizona next week, and we look forward to that,” he told reporters during a roundtable with business leaders.
“And I’m going to, I hope, Ohio very soon,” he continued. “And we’re going to start to move around, and hopefully in the not too distant future we’ll have some massive rallies and people will be sitting next to each other.”
Fintan O’Toole observed on MSNBC’s “The Last Word” Wednesday night the conservative valorization of risk, the notion that “real men take risks.” They don’t wear masks in a pandemic. For Trump’s whole career, he’s made others pay the cost of his bad risk-taking. Anyone who doesn’t take risks is a “loser.”
So Trump wants to gamble with other people’s lives and ramble around during a deadly pandemic.
New Orleans. New Orleans would be good. Maybe New York’s 14th congressional district (Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s district), the epicenter of the epicenter.
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For The Win, 3rd Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide GOTV mechanics guide at ForTheWin.us. This is what winning looks like. Note: The pandemic will upend standard field tactics in 2020. If enough promising “improvisations” come my way by June, perhaps I can issue a COVID-19 supplement.
A network of conservative leaders, donors and organizations has launched a legal onslaught against state and local restrictions intended to slow the spread of the coronavirus, pushing to allow churches to hold services, businesses to reopen and people to be able to visit with family and friends.
They have been emboldened in recent days by increasing signs of support from a powerful ally: The Justice Department.
Justice Department officials have spoken on conference calls with leaders of conservative groups, who have flagged individual cases as worthy of the department’s review. Some cabinet officials have signaled that they back the effort by participating in private calls with conservative allies, according to multiple people involved with the calls.
This week the Justice Department delivered the clearest show of support yet when Attorney General William P. Barr issued a memorandum directing two of his department’s top lawyers to lead an effort with other federal agencies to monitor state and local policies “and, if necessary, take action to correct” those that “could be violating the constitutional rights and civil liberties of individual citizens.”
“We do not want to unduly interfere with the important efforts of state and local officials to protect the public,” Mr. Barr wrote. “But the Constitution is not suspended in times of crisis.”
Though the Justice Department has so far weighed in formally on only one case — a lawsuit by a Baptist church in Greenville, Miss. — the new directive reinforced the message that court challenges to state and local restrictions by President Trump’s allies could get a favorable viewing, and potential support, from the administration.
The guidance raises the prospect that the Trump administration could side with supportive groups in legal challenges against elected state and local leaders who enacted policies that were intended to stave off the spread of the virus, which has led to more than 53,000 deaths. Public health officials fear the virus’s spread could be accelerated by premature lifting of restrictions.
Sure, that’s perfectly normal. Department of Justice lawyers conferring with the president’s political allies to determine if they want to join lawsuits they are filing to help him with his re-election campaign.
Meanwhile, the DOJ is investigating itself for looking into evidence that Russia helped the president get elected — evidence that has been fully corroborated by several other investigations.
Within moments, the President was shouting — not at the aides in the room, but into the phone — at his campaign manager Brad Parscale, three people familiar with the matter told CNN. Shifting the blame away from himself, Trump berated Parscale for a recent spate of damaging poll numbers, even at one point threatening to sue Parscale.
It’s not clear how serious the President’s threat of a lawsuit was.The White House did not immediately respond to a CNN request for comment and the Trump campaign declined to comment.Faced with an increasingly uphill battle for reelection and aides trying to steer him in new, sometimes conflicting directions, Trump has grown increasingly unnerved in the last week about his reelection prospects. Lashing out at Parscale was just the most recent manifestation of that anxiety.
“He’s p*ssed because he knows he messed up in those briefings,” one Republican close to the White House said of Trump lashing out.Last Wednesday, two days before Trump lashed out at Parscale, his campaign manager and several other top political advisers briefed him on internal campaign and Republican National Committee data showing the President was heading for defeat in key battleground states. Parscale, RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel and other advisers urged him to scale back his daily, combative news conferences and pointed to data showing that the briefings were hurting him with critical swing voters in those states.
Trump has complained to aides that his restricted travel has hurt his numbers, not the briefings.One person familiar with the call said the message didn’t appear to sink in with the President, who instead changed the subject away from the issue of briefings.But the next day, Trump’s outlandish comments about disinfectant only amplified those advisers’ urgings. Even as he erupted at Parscale on Friday evening, during that day’s briefing the President took no questions. And the next day he scrapped the briefing altogether.
He’s got to blame somebody…
I think it’s interesting that he really, truly believes that his rallies are key to his re-election.
The truth is that his rallies only make him feel good about himself. They have the same effect on non-cultists that his briefings do —extreme loathing. The difference is that everyone is at home glued to their TVs and are seeing the dumpster fire on a daily basis.
