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Month: May 2020

Thanks a lot, spreaders

Let’s give a shoutout to MAGA for helping to spread COVID-19 all over the country:

Cellphone location data suggests that demonstrators at anti-lockdown protests – some of which have been connected with Covid-19 cases – are often traveling hundreds of miles to events, returning to all parts of their states, and even crossing into neighboring ones.

The data, provided to the Guardian by the progressive campaign group the Committee to Protect Medicare, raises the prospect that the protests will play a role in spreading the coronavirus epidemic to areas which have, so far, experienced relatively few infections.

The anonymized location data was captured from opt-in cellphone apps, and data scientists at the firm VoteMap used it to determine the movements of devices present at protests in late April and early May in five states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Colorado and Florida.

They then created visualizations that tracked the movements of those devices up to 48 hours after the conclusion of protests. The visualizations only show movements within states, due to the queries analysts made in creating them. But the data scientist Jeremy Fair, executive-vice president of VoteMap, says that many of the devices that are seen to reach state borders are seen to continue across them in the underlying raw data.

One visualization shows that in Lansing, Michigan, after a 30 April protest in which armed protesters stormed the capitol building and state police were forced to physically block access to Governor Gretchen Whitmer, devices which had been present at the protest site can be seen returning to all parts of the state, from Detroit to remote towns in the state’s north.

One device visible in the data traveled to and from Afton, which is over 180 miles from the capital. Others reached, and some crossed, the Indiana border.

In the 48 hours following a 19 April “Operation Gridlock” protest in Denver, devices reached the borders of neighboring states including Wyoming, Nebraska, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Utah.

In Florida on 18 April, devices returned to all parts of the peninsula and up to the Georgia border. In Wisconsin on 24 April, devices returned to smaller towns like Green Bay and Wausau, and the borders of Minnesota and Illinois.

Let’s just hope that testing, tracing and continued social distancing and mask wearing by normal people will be enough to stop a massive return outbreak because some people just can’t behave like responsible adults.

One does not tell King Trump what he may or may not do

Oh my. The Pompeo scandal just got much more real. It turns out he and Trump may have fired the State Department Inspector General for more reasons than just the fact that he was investigating the Pompeos’ use of government employees as their personal servants.

Ousted State Department Inspector General Steve Linick was investigating Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s decision to greenlight arms sales to Saudi Arabia against the will of Congress when he was abruptly removed from his post, congressional officials tell NBC News.

The probe into the Saudi arms sale is the second known investigation into Pompeo’s activities that Linick is known to have been pursuing when he was fired by President Donald Trump on Friday evening, in a letter to Congress explaining that the administration no longer had confidence in Linick. The inspector general was also looking into allegations Pompeo enlisted a political appointee to perform personal chores like picking up dry cleaning, NBC News previously reported.

Three officials from different congressional committees say investigators on Capitol Hill believe that Linick’s investigations into the Saudi arms sale and Pompeo’s use of the political aide contributed to his firing. A White House official has said that Pompeo recommended to Trump that Linick be fired, and that Trump agreed.

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Eliot Engel, D-N.Y., confirmed Monday that Linick was looking into the Saudi arms deal.

“His office was investigating — at my request — Trump’s phony declaration of an emergency so he could send weapons to Saudi Arabia,” Engel said in a statement. “We don’t have the full picture yet, but it’s troubling that Secretary Pompeo wanted Mr. Linick pushed out before this work could be completed.”

Engel urged the Trump administration to comply with a request for related records jointly issued late last week by Engel’s committee and by Sen. Robert Menendez of New Jersey, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

The State Department and Pompeo’s office did not respond to multiple requests for comment. But in brief excerpts from a forthcoming interview with The Washington Post, posted by the reporter to Twitter, Pompeo said the inspector general “wasn’t performing a function in a way that we had tried to get him to” and was “trying to undermine what it was that we were trying to do.”

Trump in May 2019 issued an emergency declaration, using Iran concerns as the basis, that allowed the administration to sell billions in arms to the Saudis despite opposition from both parties in Congress following atrocities in Riyadh’s military effort in Yemen, the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi and other concerns about Saudi Arabia. The total for that tranche of sales to both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates was about $8 billion.

That emergency declaration enabled Pompeo to expedite the arms to the Saudis without the typical congressional notification process, in which Congress has a window to block proposed foreign military sales that it opposes.

“Today’s action will quickly augment our partners’ capacity to provide for their own self-defense and reinforce recent changes to U.S. posture in the region to deter Iran,” Pompeo said in a May 24 statement announcing the emergency notification.

But lawmakers from both parties have maintained there was no legitimate emergency to justify sidestepping Congress by authorizing the arms sale, arguing that it’s unclear how the weapons could even help Saudi Arabia defend itself against Iran, which has long preferred asymmetric warfare and use of proxy groups to actual military-to-military conflict with its enemies.

Linick’s firing has prompted bipartisan concern on Capitol Hill, with Democrats calling it clear retaliation and many Republicans taking the milder approach of saying that the administration has failed to offer a specific rationale for why he was removed. One Republican who has frequently sparred with Trump, Utah Sen. Mitt Romney, called Linick’s removal “a threat to accountable democracy.”

Interfering with King Trump’s relationship with the “prince” simply isn’t done.

To all those who say that congress can always use their “power of the purse” to stop the president from abusing his power — well, it’s not so easy, is it?

Remember, Iran contra was partly about this very thing. Bill Barr recomended that Bush Sr pardon all the people involved and he did. They don’t believe that congress has any power over a Republican president, ever.

Trump’s purge continues, no matter what

Never let it be said that the Trump administration can’t walk and chew gum at the same time. Even as the president’s minions work overtime to botch every single aspect of the federal response to the COVID-19 crisis and prepare to cover up the number of cases and the number of deaths in order to make his “numbers” look good, they still manage to find the time to complete the purge of Trump critics within the government and destroy all mechanisms for accountability.

Trump’s forces have pretty much rendered the Congress impotent, going so far as to argue before the Supreme Court last week that not only should a sitting president be immune from any and all investigation and prosecution, he’s also immune from congressional oversight. It’s well within the realm of possibility that the right-wing majority on the court will see it their way — at least when it comes to Republican presidents. (I wouldn’t expect them to feel bound by their own precedents when it applies to Democrats. )

On Friday night, the administration announced the fourth firing in six weeks of an inspector general, State Department IG Steve Linick, in what the Washington Post has dubbed a “slow-motion Friday Night Massacre.”

Back on April 3, Trump fired intelligence community IG Michael Atkinson, in retaliation for his having done his job by passing on a whistleblower’s complaint to Congress about the president’s phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. That seems like another era of history now, but it did indeed lead to Trump’s impeachment. A week later he removed acting Defense Department Inspector General Glenn Fine, who had been tasked with overseeing the $2 trillion pandemic relief fund. He was replaced with a Trump loyalist.

On May 2, acting Health and Human Services Inspector General Christi Grimm was removed after Trump learned about a report she wrote that found severe shortages of supplies and equipment in hospitals around the country. Trump told the press that Grimm’s report was wrong and accused her of being an Obama partisan, although she’d been a career official for two decades under both Republican and Democratic administrations.

The latest is Linick, who had come under fire during the impeachment inquiry when he delivered to Congress some bizarre documents he’d received from Rudy Giuliani about Marie Yovanovitch, who was then the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. Again, Linick was only doing his job, but it was seen as an act of disloyalty to the king.

Linick was spared from the purge until last week, perhaps because he’d been critical of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s email practices, which no doubt pleased the president. It appears he finally went too far, however, and was investigating Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s use of State Department personnel for personal use. By all accounts, Pompeo requested Linick be fired and Trump was happy to comply.

Considering the vast amount of corruption, graft and self-dealing by Trump and his cronies — even now, during the COVID-19 crisis — this scandal almost seems quaint. It brings back memories of the early days of the Trump presidency when half his cabinet members were behaving like members of Louis XIV’s inner circle, traveling in private planes at taxpayer expense and using staff as their personal valets.

Who can forget former EPA administrator Scott Pruitt, who not only spent vast amounts on unnecessary travel, but was so paranoid he had his office soundproofed and demanded around-the-clock security, including 18 agents who cost the taxpayers millions of dollars? Pruitt didn’t even try to hide all that, but it nonetheless took months of blaring headlines before he was finally forced to spend more time with his family (as the cliché has it). Then there was HHS Secretary Tom Price, who finally resigned after multiple investigations into his use of private charter and military jets to travel around the country on your dim and mine. Former Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke likewise had to resign after it was revealed he too was bilking the treasury for extravagant travel expenses.

Others managed to survive, notably Trumpfamily members like Jared Kushner who used his position to pursue a business deal with a Chinese company with ties to the Beijing government, as well as some dubious Middle East dealings to help his family’s real estate business. HUD Secretary Ben Carson remains in his office doing God knows what, despite having been caught spending wildly on office furniture. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin wriggled out of his own expensive travel scandal. And of course there’s the president himself, who has been promoting his own businesses and profiting from them the entire time he’s been in office.

The sheer magnitude of corruption in the Trump administration has been unprecedented and yet it all seems like a distant memory. One of Trump’s great gifts has been to offer up so much carnage, graft, incompetence and scandal that it’s hard to keep track of it all.

Pompeo is a different case. His scandal has to do with his wife Susan, to whom he is exceedingly devoted. Indeed, reports suggest she is constantly by his side constantly. When he was CIA director, there was reportedly consternation over the fact that Susan Pompeo commandeered office space at the agency’s headquarters in Langley, Virginia, and was “assisted” by CIA employees, who could have been forgiven for thinking they were expected to do whatever the director’s wife told them to. According to the Washington Post, Susan fashioned herself as the “first lady of the CIA,” which isn’t actually a thing.

From the beginning, there have been raised eyebrows in both the CIA and the State Department over Susan Pompeo’s extensive travel with her husband, which he has referred to as a “force multiplier.” Apparently she runs meetings as well, in some quasi-official role. Someone filed a whistleblower complaint last summer about the Pompeos tasking staffers with personal errands. No one knows this for sure, the assumption is that Linick, the State IG, was looking into that matter as well, prompting Pompeo to request that he be fired.

But something has changed since the days of the Scott Pruitt scandal. Trump and his henchmen no longer care about “optics,” if they ever did, and now believe there are no legal constraints on their behavior at all. If a government watchdog displeases them, they just fire her and install a loyal minion in her place. The Department of Justice is their personal Praetorian Guard. They know their media friends will cover for them and they feel no fear of Congress or the courts.

The president clearly believes he can put an end to independent watchdogs and whistleblowers altogether:

Perhaps Trump will lose in November and a new administration government will be able to put safeguards in place to prevent any future president from manipulating the system this way. But that will be difficult.

Trump has demonstrated for all the world to see how easy it is for a corrupt leader with no integrity or honor to use the power of the presidency to dismantle all the levers of accountability, as long as he has enough members of the Senate behind him. A more intelligent and cunning demagogue will be able to use this much more efficiently and ruthlessly than he has done.

My Salon column reprinted with permission.

Blessings, 2020-style

Photo by parishioner Larry Peplin via Facebook.

Social distancing is proved effective. Even as people keep it up, they are finding creative ways to do what they do in coronavirus-safe way. But this is a little surreal:

DETROIT – A Grosse Pointe priest recently took social distancing to a creative new level when he used a toy squirt gun to shoot holy water on parishioners’ Easter food and flowers outside St. Ambrose Church.

The Rev. Tim Pelc was geared up in a mask, face shield and rubber gloves as a precaution against the coronavirus as he greeted each car full of people as they stopped by the steps of the Roman Catholic parish on the day before Easter for the traditional blessing. The photos were posted by the church on social media, according to the Associated Press.

BuzzFeed News:

Pelc came up with the idea of using a water gun to bless his parishioners’ Easter baskets from a safe distance, and consulted with his friend, an emergency room doctor in Detroit, to ensure it was safe to do so.

“He said, ‘not only is this safe, this is fun,’ and he came with his kids,” Pelc said. “He provided me with all the personal protection stuff that I needed. The sun was out, we had a nice turnout. It was a way of continuing an ancient custom, and people seemed to enjoy it.”

The photos have just now gone viral. The Internet must be losing it edge.

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Note: The pandemic will upend standard field tactics in 2020. If enough promising “improvisations” come my way by June, perhaps I can issue a COVID-19 supplement.

America ghosted

A UN flag waves in front of the United Nations (UN) building in Bonn, Germany

This seems like a useful mission:

Australia has received international backing for an independent coronavirus inquiry as trade tensions with China come under heavy strain.

More than 60 countries including Russia, Indonesia, India, Japan, Britain, Canada, New Zealand and all 27 European Union member states have co-sponsored the motion.

The draft resolution calls for impartial, independent and comprehensive evaluation of the international response to the pandemic.

It doesn’t mention China, but Australia’s push for the inquiry has angered Beijing, which has threatened a huge tariff on barley and blocked some beef imports.READ MORE

Health Minister Greg Hunt will represent Australia at the virtual World Health Assembly meeting on Monday night.

A vote is expected in the early hours of Tuesday.

Agriculture Minister David Littleproud said the inquiry was about investigating what the world could learn from the devastating pandemic.

“That’s the responsible thing to do when 300,000 souls have lost their lives around the world,” he told the ABC on Monday.

The best thing about it is that the US is not included. Trump would only make everything so much worse.

It’s fair for countries to come together to try to sort out exactly what happened. It doesn’t sound like they are being bellicose and hostile which is unproductive while the bodies are still piling up and we need every bit of data we can get.

If people have been wanting the US to withdraw from the world, they are getting their wish. Only it’s the rest of the world withdrawing from us. And I can’t blame them.

The herd won’t save us

From 538:

Daniel Arlein has already had COVID-19. In March, the 36-year-old small business owner and DJ, who lives in Brooklyn, tested positive for the viral infection and suffered through two weeks of flu-like symptoms.

Arlein has since recovered, and while he’s still being careful — avoiding leaving the house, washing his hands more often and wearing a face mask — he can’t help feeling a bit relieved to have already had the infection.

“The only way it’s helping me is psychologically, to be able to go out in the world and still be careful but not be freaked out that I’m going to get sick,” he said. “I have no idea if I will get sick again. I feel like I won’t, but I have no idea if I can get it again.”

Most people understand immunity to mean that once a person has been exposed to a disease, they can’t get it again. It’s an easy concept to grasp, and some people have hoped that widespread immunity could be the way out of this pandemic: If enough of the population becomes immune to the disease, the spread would be stopped, since the virus would run out of new, susceptible targets. The “herd” of immune people would protect everyone.

But getting to herd immunity without a vaccine isn’t as simple as the idea itself. A number of variables can affect when herd immunity is reached — and what it costs to get there — and they vary depending on the disease. How infectious is the disease? How deadly is it? And how long do people stay immune once they’ve gotten it? Adjusting any of these variables can drastically change the outcome of this equation. You can probably sense where this is heading …

We’ve built a very simplified version of how those variables interact. (You’ll see just how simple in the methodology beneath the simulator.) To be clear, this is not about COVID-19 itself — instead, our calculator shows how a theoretical disease we’re calling Fictionitis would play out in a population that has never encountered it before and does nothing to try to stop it.

You’ll notice that each variable plays a role in setting a herd immunity threshold and reaching it.

The more people a person with Fictionitis infects on average, the higher the herd immunity threshold rises, but the faster spread also means that the threshold is reached more quickly. That, of course, can lead to a huge portion of the population getting ill at once, which would overwhelm hospitals. Unless the death rate is extremely low, that would be a devastating mix. A disease that doesn’t spread as readily will stick around for longer, but it helps maintain a flatter curve.

If you shortened the immunity duration, you may have also seen that the blue bar showing how much of the population is susceptible rose again even after the herd immunity threshold had been crossed. That’s because if immunity fades while the disease is still active, people who were previously immune once again become at risk for infection. Herd immunity only truly works while the recovered population has immunity to the disease.

For COVID-19, of course, we can’t change these variables, and we still haven’t nailed down their exact values, anyway. What we do know so far paints a stark picture: This disease is too deadly, too contagious and too new to depend on post-infection immunity (as opposed to immunity via vaccination) as a solution. Naturally acquired herd immunity is not the answer.

Read on for the details. They’re pretty compelling.

The road we would have to take to get to herd immunity is piled high with dead bodies. And while it might happen “faster” we shuld not want that. If you are fated to get this thing, you want to get it later not sooner — they are learning new things about this thing every day, new treatments, protocols, diagnostic tools. Maybe they’ll come up with some drug treatments that work.

Being in the herd is great unless you’re being trampled in a stampede.

The orders and guidelines helped. A lot.

Now it appears that many states are basically throwing caution to the wind and telling their citizens it’s every man for himself. And a whole lot of individuals, and not just Trump voters, have decided they aren’t going to follow the guidelines anymore anyway.

However, containing the virus doesn’t require that every asshole and moron follows the guidelines. If most people do it, it will help to keep the caseload from rising exponentially as it did in the beginning. We could undoubtedly do a lot better if we didn’t have a political leadership that’s telling people that nothing matters more than going out and getting drunk in a bar without following guidelines. But if those of us who understand the stakes do the right thing we can mitigate this just a bit.

It’s the best we can hope for.

Garden variety corruption growing like weeds

Senator Jane Nelson calling the protesters not "real Texans ...

I realize this sort of thing is almost not even worth noting in the current environment. The corruption is so extreme that donors getting government handouts and regulatory favors is rather quaint.

Still, you almost have to admire the sheer chutzpah of Trump donors who run lung destroying businesses getting Coronavirus money because their killer industries are in trouble:

A year ago, Kelly Craft was serving as Washington’s frequently absent ambassador to Canada, soon to be en route to the United Nations. Her spouse, the coal baron Joseph Craft III, was knee-deep in a Trump administration assault on federal rules aimed at safeguarding the environment, slowing climate change and protecting miners and other breathing Americans from the illnesses, injuries and deaths linked to the burning of coal.

What a difference a pandemic can make.

The Crafts were reaping the rewards after showering Trump and numerous other Republican political candidates with millions in campaign contributions during the 2016 election cycle. The good times were rolling because Joseph Craft’s work eliminating those regulations was driving up coal sales and the value of the coal under his control as the chairman, president and chief executive officer of mining giant Alliance Resource Partners.

Alliance, a publicly-traded diversified energy firm, is the second-largest coal producer in the eastern United States, with about 1.7 billion tons of reserves in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

On May 14, 2019, Alliance Resource Partners stock was trading at $18.53 a share. The Crafts’ estimated net worth at the time, amounting to more than a billion dollars, mostly in energy stocks, was so vast that Kelly Craft was barred by a federal ethics agreement from participating in climate change matters when she became U.N. ambassador last September.

Fast forward to May 13, 2020, just months after the pandemic struck, and a share was selling at $2.89—about 84 percent of its value having evaporated.

Joseph Craft is the beneficial owner of more than 19 million shares of Alliance Resource, or 15 percent of the total outstanding, according to the company’s annual report for 2019. That means the value of his holdings fell by more than $300 million over the past year.

Wall Street, while uncertain about the future of the coal business, seems to favor a rosier future for Alliance. Analysts are playing down the danger of the company going belly up, saying it appears to be holding on to its customers and existing contracts even as other coal producers find themselves in worse shape.

But behind the scenes, Alliance also appears to be looking to its friends in the Trump administration for a helping hand.

In other words, having spent a lifetime fighting government interference in the marketplace, Craft thinks that when it comes to the money in his company’s pocket, it’s time for the government to pony up.

Soon after the crisis hit, the mining industry, in which Joseph Craft is a leading figure in Washington, won a valuable ruling from the federal Department of Homeland Security, which concluded in late March that coal was an essential industry, “critical to ensuring the reliability of the electrical system” and thus “critical to public health and safety, as well as economic and national security.”

The decision enabled the entire coal-supply chain to continue to fully function during the coronavirus outbreak—while most of America’s economy was shut down, sending millions into unemployment lines.

Alliance has also joined a National Mining Association drive to reduce mandatory industry payments to federal programs aiding coal workers sick with black lung disease and cleaning up the polluted sites of abandoned coal mines. The government has yet to act on this request.

Alliance has also won support from 11 Republican senators—two of whom it has given campaign contributions—for a proposal to help Alliance raise precious capital more easily by weakening Federal Reserve Board requirements on bond ratings.

There more to this story at the link. The amount of sheer corruption at every level continues to be astonishing.

And yet this criminal administration won, with the help of the media, by calling Hillary Clinton corrupt. It’s enough to make you feel like you’re losing your mind.

Tapper FTW

In case you aren’t following the fever swamps, here’s a little example of what he’s talking about:

President Trump’s eldest son on Saturday posted a social media message suggesting Joseph R. Biden Jr. was a pedophile, an incendiary and baseless charge that illustrates the tactics the president is turning to as he attempts to erase Mr. Biden’s early advantage in key state polls.

Donald Trump Jr., who is one of his father’s most prominent campaign surrogates, put on Instagram a picture of Mr. Biden saying: “See you later, alligator” alongside an image of an alligator saying: “In a while, pedophile.”

When a reporter shared the Instagram post online, the younger Mr. Trump, echoing one of his father’s tactics, wrote on Twitter that he was only “joking around” and noted that he had included emojis of a laughing face.

Yet in the same Twitter post, he also reprised his original insinuation. He accused the former vice president of “unwanted touching” alongside a collage of photographs of Mr. Biden showing affection for children. The misleading images were mostly taken from public swearing-in ceremonies at the Capitol, where the former vice president warmly greeted lawmakers and their families.

Pedophilia is a MAGA obsession, so much so that you really have to wonder about projection. Recall that they also accused Hillary Clinton of pedophilia resulting in one of the braindead cultists showing up with a gun at a Washington DC pizza parlor these fools had insisted was the center of Clinton’s child sex trafficking ring. It was just lucky that someone wasn’t killed.

Don Jr is a monster. His brother is simply delusional:

It’s only May. This isn’t going to get any better. Here’s the kind of swill circulating in the fever swamps. Maybe it’s Russian bots. But we know who the audience is for sure:

If the rest of the media follow Tapper’s lead and refuse to go down the grotesque Biden smear rabbit hole it will help a great deal. But this stuff is all over social media and it’s only the beginning.

Any hope of Trump’s cult behaving responsibly in the pandemic and not spreading it like wildfire is way too optimistic. They will be focused like a laser on smearing Biden in the most odious ways possible.

And it will come from the very top.

Make it stop

He actually tweeted this:

In the middle of a global catastrophe that’s already killed 90,000 Americans the president is spending his time pathetically tweeting out the Bill Pullman speech from the alien invasion movie “Independence Day” — with his own head superimposed on it.

Meanwhile, here in the real world, the former president gave this commencement speech that was watched on national television by high school seniors and their families all over the country:

If you think it’s incredibly odd that we had the former president giving that national address while the actual president was shit-posting on Twitter well … it is. But that’s where we are.