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Month: October 2020

Killing his own voters

The Obama-Trump Voters Are Real. Here's What They Think. - The New York  Times

I will never understand why he thought this was a good idea. It’s not as if they weren’t predicting a big wave in the fall. I guess he didn’t realize that the virus wasn’t always going to be his ally in the civil war.

Trump’s going to swing states this weeks to hold rallies.

The fall surge is concentrated in the states Trump insists have to leave their houses and go vote in person 3 weeks from now. And most of them will happily do it. Without masks and social distancing. *Sigh*

These charts were from this site which takes the data from the New York Times. There are a whole bunch of them that show the changes through time. It fascinating to see the way the virus has moved all over the country. No one is safe from it. Not even Trump.

“And then we fell in love ….”

North Korea unveiled what analysts believe to be the world's largest liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile at a parade in Pyongyang early Saturday.

Trump has been insisting that his love affair with Kim Jong Un has kept the North Korean dictator from pursuing his ambitions to be able to threaten the world with his nuclear arsenal.

Maybe this thing is some kind of phony mock-up, who knows? But he does seem to be sending a message of some sort that says he’s been busy while Trump was sleeping with his love letters under his pillow:

North Korea unveiled what analysts believe to be one of the world’s largest ballistic missiles at a military parade celebrating the 75th anniversary of the Workers’ Party broadcast on state-run television on Saturday.

The massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.Analysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.

“Largest *road-mobile* liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,” tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.”Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,” tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.

“What North Korea has shown us, what appears to be a new liquid-fueled ICBM that seems to be a derivative of what was tested back in late 2017, known as the Hwasong-15, is much bigger and clearly more powerful than anything in the DPRK’s arsenal,” said Harry Kazianis, senior director of Korean studies at the Washington DC-based Center for the National Interest.

I don’t think anyone knows yet just how much damage he’s done in national security and foreign policy.

Election poll dancing

Ferdnand Amandi knows how to tease.

Can’t tell if this ABC News/Washington Post poll is the one he means or not:

In the aftermath of his own COVID-19 diagnosis, two-thirds of registered voters say Trump failed to take appropriate precautions against the virus, 62% distrust what he says about it and eight months since its arrival in the United States just 21% say it’s under control.

Also damaging to Trump: 58% disapprove of how he’s handled the pandemic — essentially steady since July — and a new high, 73%, are worried they or an immediate family member might catch the coronavirus (or say it’s already happened). Worry about the virus remains a significant independent predictor of support for Biden over Trump.

This is hardly the first poll to show a double-digit advantage for Joe Biden. Eight others tracked since the end of September by Real Clear Politics show that. But Trump polling even among all men must leave a sick feeling in someone’s future-indictable tummy, even if he still holds an 11-point advantage among white men.

Biden’s support comes from liberals, city-dwellers, minorities, and the more-educated, as you’d expect:

Trump’s, conversely, are Republicans (90 percent), conservatives (84 percent), evangelical white Protestants (79 percent), rural residents (58 percent) and those with no more than a high school diploma (57 percent). Notable here is that Trump loses 9 percent of Republicans to Biden, while Biden loses 4 percent of Democrats to Trump – although it’s that 12-point Biden lead among independents that makes the big difference.

That rural edge will come into play in deciding who controls state legislatures and 2021 redistricting, so support Democrats running in those rural state House and Senate districts.

Early voting of all types typically favors Democrats, but Republicans make up serious ground on Election Day. No early turnout lead is safe. But Americans have cast more than 9 million ballots in the 30 states where that data is available. More than twice as many Democrats than Republicans have voted to date. But as the ABC News/Washington Post suggests, how registered independents break will tell the tale.

What could matter a lot is how Democrats and independents vote in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin which do not allow processing of absentee ballots before Election Day. If you can vote early in person in those states, please do so. Your absentee ballot there will is subject to challenge.

Still, this early vote spread will mean Trump and Republicans will rely on heavy Election-Day turnout if they have any hope of pulling close enough to cheat. A little snow, sleet, or rain in those states on Nov. 3 could ruin their day. And the days that come after.

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For The Win, 3rd Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide GOTV mechanics guide at ForTheWin.us. This is what winning looks like.

A tweetle beetle bottle puddle paddle battle muddle

When tweetle beetles fight,
it’s called a tweetle beetle battle.

Republicans decided years ago that if they cannot win control of Washington, D.C. with policies a majority of Americans support, they would game democracy so they might rule as a minority. Failing that, their backup plan is to stack the courts with far-right judges appointed for life. On occasions when the GOP lacks the votes to prevent popular legislation legislation they dislike, Republicans can appeal to “activist” judges of their choosing to overrule the will of the electorate.

Failing that, they just might burn the place down.

For years, Republicans have made it their mission to install young, under-qualified ideologues to lifetime federal judgeships while blocking Democrats from filling vacancies with qualified ones. Under Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, that has become virtually the only work of the U.S. Senate during the Trump administration.

https://twitter.com/GovHowardDean/status/1315241136856985602?s=20

With the looming prospect that Republicans will lose bigly in a few weeks, McConnell is fixated on getting one last ideologue appointed to the Supreme Court before he loses control of the Senate. The prospect that Democrats might neutralize the conservative advantage once they have a turn at appointing judges — and might even expand the Supreme Court — has Republicans fuming.

The bad form of it all! The un-Americanness of tinkering with Platonic Forms handed down from the mountaintop!

Digby argued on Saturday that expanding the court is necessary to restore representative government Republicans have undermined. Democrats have a duty “to re-balance the court and otherwise re-establish a constitutional order that recognizes majoritarian governance with protection of the minority instead of the GOP’s new formulation of minority rule with repression of the majority.”

Parker Molloy drew attention on Saturday to a time when Republicans found rejiggering the courts to their liking very, very American.

https://twitter.com/ParkerMolloy/status/1315019816357564416?s=20
https://twitter.com/ParkerMolloy/status/1315024167989899267?s=20

See “Reason 466 for why Dems should expand the Court” from Saturday.

https://twitter.com/ParkerMolloy/status/1315025949365239808?s=20

LateFriday, Marc Elias of Democracy Docket celebrated a federal district court victory blocking Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s order restricting Texas counties to one ballot drop box each. One: no matter if the population of the counties numbered in the hundreds or the millions. Great, Marc. Now, can you make it stick?

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1314750877442412544?s=20

Not yet. A three-judge appellate court swiftly stayed that order. Guess who appointed all three?

It’s like a tweetle beetle battle. “Voters are screwed again,” tweeted NBC’s Andrea Mitchell.

Somewhere between Lewis Carroll and Dr. Seuss exists the land of “Make Believe the United States Is Not A Bad Movie.” There a drugged-up autocrat contagious with a deadly disease is not screaming “off with their heads” to an arena filled with maskless, vulnerable subjects and tweetle beetles in a puddle are not battling with paddles over the size of their bottle.

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For The Win, 3rd Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide GOTV mechanics guide at ForTheWin.us. This is what winning looks like.

To serve man: The Social Dilemma (***)

https://i0.wp.com/lovethynerd.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/The-Social-Dilemma_2.jpg?quality=89&ssl=1

“You know, one thing I learned from my patients… they all hate the phone company. It’s interesting; even the stockholders of the phone company hate the phone company!”

― from the 1967 social satire The President’s Analyst

“It’s not about the technology being the existential threat. It’s the technology’s ability to bring out the worst in society…and the worst in society being the existential threat.”

― from the 2020 documentary The Social Dilemma

“You have created a monster, and it will destroy you!”

― from the 1931 horror classic Frankenstein

Just in: From the nanosecond you log in to a social media platform, you are being tracked. Not only are you being tracked, but you are being filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed, and numbered (YOU are Number 6). In short: you are being bought and sold. That smart phone, laptop, or tablet in your hands is not the “product”. YOU are.

So like, wake UP, sheeple!

As I see you are currently busy checking Twitter notifications on your cell, I’ll cut to the chase. I recently observed a number of my friends on (wait for it) Facebook buzzing about the (relatively) new Netflix documentary The Social Dilemma, so I thought I’d check it out.

“All through my life I’ve had this strange unaccountable feeling that something was going on in the world, something big, even sinister, and no one would tell me what it was.” “No,” said the old man, “that’s just perfectly normal paranoia. Everyone in the Universe has that.”

― from the The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, by Douglas Adams

Never before have a handful of tech designers had such control over the way billions of us think, act, and live our lives.

― the “dilemma”, as posited on the official website for the film The Social Dilemma

Directed by Jeff Orlowski (Chasing Ice) the film operates from the premise that (with all due respect to the late great Douglas Adams) the “strange unaccountable feeling” you may have “that something was going on in the world, something big, even sinister” is in fact not “just perfectly normal paranoia.” This is not a dream…this is really happening.

Sinister terms like “data mining” and “surveillance capitalism” may elicit yawns or shrugs from a generation that assumes laptops, cell phones and the internet are immutable elements of human existence, but Orlowski offers a twist by having the architects of social media utter dire warnings you’d normally only expect to hear coming from the lips of members of the anti-Big Tech conspiracy fringe.

These are not minor players; people like VR guru Jaron Lanier, former head of Pinterest Tim Kendall, Center for Humane Technology co-founders Aza Raskin and Tristan Harris, Facebook “like” button co-creator Justin Rosenstein, et.al. Orlowski also enlists academics, like Harvard University professor/social psychologist Shoshana Zuboff and Stanford Addiction Medicine Dual Diagnosis Clinic Chief/psychiatrist Anna Lembke.

It is not just a cliché that we are “addicted” to our cell phones, to Facebook, to Twitter, to email; scrolling away hours, days, weeks, months of our lives as we circle down the rabbit hole (“There are only two industries that call their customers ‘users’: illegal drugs and software,” observes one talking head in the film). How do we escape this time-sucking alternate reality? Ironically, Virtual Reality pioneer Jaron Lanier offers the most pragmatic advice-in essence saying “Just unplug yourself, stupid.” Easier said than done, grasshopper.

Even some of the people who have helped create “virtual” addiction admit they can’t stop getting high on their own supply. Again, these are the very smart, self-aware men and women “behind the curtain” who have basically distilled all the trickery and mind games that magicians, con artists, used car salesmen and revival tent evangelists have perfected over the centuries into algorithms.

OK…Orlowski’s film is somewhat depressing, especially if you expect light at the end of the tunnel. But it is timely, considering that the November 3rd election looms. You know how people say, “our country has never been more divided”? According to some of the interviewees, the reality may be our country has never been more manipulated. One says:

The manipulation by third parties is not a ‘hack’. The Russians [in the lead-up to the 2016 presidential election] didn’t ‘hack’ Facebook. What they did was they used the tools that Facebook created for legitimate advertisers and for legitimate users. And they applied it to a nefarious purpose.

So what he is saying (if I read him correctly) is that the Russians were merely using the tools of capitalism to do exactly what they are designed to do: reap a profit (in this case, they would gain political capital, one assumes). This is a profound observation, the more I think about it. And it reminds me of this evergreen monologue (delivered by Ned Beatty) from the 1976 film Network (directed by Sidney Lumet and written by Paddy Chayefsky). To wit:

There is no America. There is no democracy. There is only IBM, and ITT, and AT&T, and DuPont, Dow, Union Carbide, and Exxon. Those are the nations of the world today. What do you think the Russians talk about in their councils of state, Karl Marx? They get out their linear programming charts, statistical decision theories, Minimax solutions, and compute the price-cost probabilities of their transactions and investments, just like we do. We no longer live in a world of nations and ideologies, Mr. Beale. The world is a college of corporations, inexorably determined by the immutable bylaws of business. The world is a business, Mr. Beale. It has been since man crawled out of the slime.

Plus ca change.

The Social Dilemma also touches on what has become the greatest bane of social media: fake news. One of the tech insiders offers this less-than-comforting thought:

Algorithms and politicians are becoming so expert at how to trigger us …getting so good at creating fake news that we absorb it as if it were reality and confusing us into believing those lies. It’s as if we have less and less control over who we are and what we believe.

 I guess I’ll leave you with that happy thought, because I must go check my email.

(The Social Dilemma is currently streaming on Netflix)

UPDATE: Twitter’s VP talks to Brian Stelter about their election night plan:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2020/10/11/twitter-exec-we-will-take-action-on-election-disinformation.cnn

More reviews at Den of Cinema

Dennis Hartley

Reason 466 for why Dems should expand the Court

That is a June 2013 bill introduced by then Congressman Tom Cotton calling to reduce the DC circuit from 11 seats to 8. He had the nerve to call it the “Stop Court Packing” act.

Here are Republicans holding a hearing in which they lament Obama attempting to fill those three empty seats on the DC Circuit:

Republicans at a House Judiciary Committee hearing condemned President Obama’s nominations to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals as political court-packing that will cost U.S. taxpayers an unnecessary $1 million per judge per year.

 “These three nominations, with the confirmation of another, is intended to pack the D.C. Circuit to capacity of 11 authorized judgeships,” said Rep. Bob Goodlatte, R-Va., at the Monday hearing his party called “Are More Judges Always the Answer?”

Republicans vehemently condemned Obama’s nominees Robert Wilkins, Cornelia Pillard and Patricia Millet throughout the two-hour hearing, often directing their anger at Nan Aron, the president of Alliance for Justice, who testified


 “It’s either [Obama’s] asleep at the wheel or he’s negligent,” Georgia Republican Doug Collins said, reacting to Aron’s statement that the D.C. Circuit is the “crown jewel” of the judiciary and the “farm team” to the U.S. Supreme Court, and needs to be filled .    

Few Democrats spoke at the two-hour hearing – ranking Democrat John Conyers of Michigan stepped out just before the hearing began and never returned. Those who did speak criticized Republicans’ efforts to block all nominations coming from the White House.
  
“The entire budget of the federal judiciary makes up less than 1 percent of our entire federal budget,” said Rep. Hank Johnson, D-Ga. “It is not driving budget deficits and debt, and we know that this failure to adequately staff the judiciary is not about saving taxpayer dollars. It’s really about forming a judiciary that has certain ideological views, and it’s my friends on the other side of the aisle that seem to have that aspiration.

 According to the www.uscourts.gov website, checked this morning, 74 of the 677 U.S. District Judge seats are vacant, with 41 nominees pending; and 17 of the 179 seats on the Federal Appellate Courts are empty, with nine nominees pending.

 “Due in large part to the Republican obstructionism, nominees to the federal bench face record wait times from nominations to current confirmation in the Senate as compared to recent administrations,” Johnson said.

 The president himself called Republican efforts to block his judicial nominations “unprecedented” during his June announcement of nominations for the D.C. Circuit, though he acknowledge that the Democrats had “not been completely blameless” of using the same tactics when he was a member of the Senate.     

Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, made the short trip across Capitol Hill to testify at the hearing and promote his bill, the Court Efficiency Act, which would remove one seat from the D.C. Circuit and reallocate seats to the Second and Eleventh Circuits.

Grassley claimed that the president plans to pack the court with judges sympathetic to his agenda to act as his rubber stamp and eat up tax dollars. Grassley and House Republicans also pointed to the president’s desire to fill the D.C. Circuit before other judicial emergencies as evidence of Obama’s desire to cement his political allies within the judiciary.

Let’s hear no more about how the Democrats are trying to destroy political norms by expanding the Supreme Court. After the Republicans’ unprecedented obstructionism during President Obama’s term, after which they turned around an packed the federal courts to gills with extremists and hacks — including stealing one Supreme Court seat under a made-up rationale and then completely discarding that rationale when it benefited them four years later — they have been left with no choice.

Republicans have become a rogue, undemocratic, power-mad political faction that no longer cares about legitimacy. They are dangerous to the survival of our constitutional order. Therefore, Democrats are obligated to use their own legal and constitutional power to re-balance the court and otherwise re-establish a constitutional order that recognizes majoritarian governance with protection of the minority instead of the GOP’s new formulation of minority rule with repression of the majority.

The Republicans have discovered that shamelessness is their superpower and they are unafraid to deploy it to force their ideology on the entire country. Democrats can no longer afford to stand by and let it happen out of an antediluvian adherence to “norms” that only they are observing.

Uh oh — there goes The Villages

Pence is heading to Villages. He shouldn’t have to do that. But it’s slipping away:

Sara Branscome’s golf cart whizzed down the smooth asphalt path that winds through The Villages, the nation’s largest retirement community, an expanse of beautiful homes, shops and entertainment venues that bills itself as “Florida’s Friendliest Hometown.”

Branscome’s cart was festooned with two American flags that flapped in the warm afternoon breeze. A line of oncoming carts bedecked with balloons and patriotic streamers chugged past while honking. Branscome jabbed her left foot on the horn pedal, then gave a thumbs-up.

“This gets you rejuvenated and ready for the next month or so, so we can do this and win. It gives you hope,” the 60-year-old retiree said.

Then she let out a whoop and two surprising words: “Go Biden!”

It’s not a cry that might be expected to resound in The Villages, and it’s certainly not one that is encouraging to President Donald Trump. Older voters helped propel him to the White House — the Pew Research Center estimates Trump led among voters 65 and older by 9 percentage points in 2016 — and his campaign hoped they would be a bulwark to cement a second term.

They remain a huge chunk of the electorate. Pew estimates that nationwide, nearly 1 in 4 eligible voters will be 65 and older. It’s the highest level on record, going back to 1970.

But there have been warnings that older voters are in play. To be sure, Trump has solid support among older adults, but his campaign has seen a drop-off in its internal research, according to campaign aides, and some public polls suggest Democrat Joe Biden is running ahead or just even with Trump.

Mostly, it seems, older voters have been put off by Trump’s handling of the coronavirus, which affects these voters more acutely than others. They were particularly alarmed by Trump’s performances at daily task force briefings in the spring because his remarks showed an uneven handling of the crisis and inspired little confidence.

The president has tried to shore up his popularity with older adults. He has emphasized themes of law and order, and has warned that Democrats would preside over a sundering of the suburbs. He has promoted his prescription drug policy. And he has kept up steady visits to Florida — after Maine, the state with the oldest population — and advertised heavily there.

But whatever improvement he saw is now in jeopardy. The president’s own COVID-19 infection has refocused attention on the virus and his handling of it. If the 74-year-old Trump can’t safeguard his own health, some wonder, how can he be trusted to protect other older adults who are far more vulnerable?

In few places could any significant drop-off spell doom more profoundly than Florida, a state Trump almost certainly must win. Older adults historically are the most reliable voters, and Florida is infamous for its tight races. So even a modest drop in support could send Trump back to private life.

The Villages, where the median age is 66, is built on the American dream of a golden retirement. “We’ve created the backdrop of possibilities for you to write the next chapter in your story,” its website says.

Retirees can enjoy everything from golf to seminars on Mark Twain to drinking a cold beverage in the town square while listening to a “jamgrass” band (progressive bluegrass in the vein of Phish).

Politically, it long has been considered a conservative redoubt, so entrenched that it’s a must-stop for any national or statewide Republican running for office. One clear measure of its importance: Vice President Mike Pence’s scheduled visit Saturday.

The Morse family, which developed the community northwest of Orlando, has given hundreds of thousands of dollars to Republican campaigns over the years. During the 2008 presidential race, GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin drew a stadium-sized crowd with 60,000 residents flocking to see her in one of the community’s town squares.

Last fall, Trump picked The Villages to promote his support for Medicare and its private insurance option.

But on Wednesday, the scene told a markedly different story. An armada of as many as 500 golf carts gathered at the Sea Breeze Recreation Center to caravan to the nearby elections office, so folks could drop off ballots for Biden.

As each cart rolled into the parking lot and slid a ballot into a locked box under the watchful eye of elections supervisors, dozens lined the sidewalk, cheering and clapping every time a vote was cast.

“I think we all came out of the closet for this election,” said Branscome.

It’s about time.

And let’s be clear. For better or worse, these people vote:

“I could be one of the diers”

White House Is Not Contact Tracing 'Super-Spreader' Trump Rose Garden Event  - The New York Times

If you read nothing else today, this piece by Olivia Nuzzi in NY Magazine is the one:

Donald Trump was on the phone, and he was talking about dying. It was Saturday, October 3, and while his doctor had told the outside world that the president’s symptoms were nothing to worry about, Trump, cocooned in his suite at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland, was telling those close to him something very different.

“I could be one of the diers,” he said.

The person on the other end of the line couldn’t forget that unusual word the president used: dier. A seldom-said dictionary standard, it was a classic Trumpism, at once sinister and childlike. If being a loser was bad, being a dier was a lot worse. Losers can become winners again. Diers are losers forever. But aren’t we all diers in the end? Donald Trump, the least self-reflective man in America, was contemplating his own mortality.

He said it again: “I could be one of the diers.”

The previous day, at 12:54 a.m., he had announced that he and the First Lady, Melania, had tested positive for COVID-19 in an outbreak that would sideline dozens across the West Wing, the East Wing, the highest levels of the federal government, the military ranks, Trump’s 2020 campaign team, and prominent supporters in the religious community. The virus had barreled into the very White House that allowed its spread throughout the United States, where 213,000 were dead and 7.6 million more were infected amid the biggest economic collapse since the Great Depression.

As infections swelled nationwide, the virus made its way inside the president himself — an epic security failure with no modern analog. It was over a century ago, amid a pandemic in 1919, that Woodrow Wilson got sick in Paris. His White House blamed what it called a cold and a fever on the dreary weather. But, in fact, Wilson was sick with the virus now known as the Spanish flu, which killed hundreds of thousands of Americans as his administration looked away. One hundred and one years later, the story of Trump’s “mild symptoms” became less and less true as the hours ticked by. His fever crept up. His cough and congestion grew worse. Doctors gave him oxygen and administered a high dose of an experimental antibody treatment unavailable to the ailing masses and made using fetal tissue, a practice his administration opposes, from the drugmaker Regeneron. Still, he resisted going to Walter Reed. “I don’t need to go,” he said, according to a person who spoke to him. “I’m fine. I’m fine. We have everything we need here.”

Persuading him to leave the White House required an intervention from his doctors, members of the White House operations staff, the Secret Service, and his son-in-law and senior adviser, Jared Kushner. They had failed to stop the mass deaths of high-risk Americans, but they were going to save Trump, the most important high-risk American of them all. They told him, “This isn’t just your choice. This really isn’t about you. It’s about the presidency. Our job is to protect the presidency, and you occupy it.” They asked him to think about the military and everyone else whose life would be upended if the state of the country’s leadership was in doubt.

Fine. He agreed to walk across the South Lawn and board Marine One. The White House said the move was made “out of an abundance of caution.” In a video posted on social media, the president hinted that things weren’t so great. He put it this way: “I’m going to Walter Reed hospital. I think I’m doing very well, but we’re going to make sure that things work out.”

In the hospital, Trump’s world shrank overnight in a way it hadn’t since he arrived in Washington from New York to be sworn into office nearly four years ago. Contagious and isolated from his family and closest aides, he was accompanied by Dan Scavino, the social-media director who had first been his caddie and had survived at his side longer than anyone who wasn’t blood, and Mark Meadows, his highly emotional chief of staff, who slept in a room nearby, and was attended to by a team of camera-conscious doctors. In this sterilized confinement, he tried to distract himself from his illness. He plotted his escape, planned public-relations stunts, watched TV, and took calls from friends, members of his staff, and Republican lawmakers. But he remained consumed by what the doctors told him about his chances of survival. It wasn’t a sure thing.

Nine months into the pandemic and one month away from Election Day, the president considered for the first time that the disease killing him in the polls, threatening his political future, might just kill him, too. On the phone he remarked sarcastically, “This change of scenery has been great.”

He asked for an update on who else in his circle had contracted the virus, though he expressed no regret, no indication that he understood his own decisions could have led to the infections. Unable to process the irony of his own misfortune, he tried his best to find the Trumpiest spin. Looked at one way, he was having the greatest and most important illness of all time. He had the best care in the world, and he raved about the virtues of the drugs the doctors had him on, including dexamethasone, a steroid pumping up his lungs that can induce euphoria. He was awed by the wonders of modern medicine. He said he was feeling really good, and it didn’t sound like he was lying. Then he admitted something scary. That how he felt might not mean much in the end.

“This thing could go either way. It’s tricky. They told me it’s tricky,” the president said. “You can tell it can go either way.”

Statistically, the coronavirus is more likely to cost Donald Trump the White House than his life, though the threat to the latter isn’t helping the former. A little more than three weeks before the election, potentially contagious and freaking everybody out, Trump faces what looks like the end of his presidency. “He’s mishandled the coronavirus, he’s never been popular, and he’s gonna lose badly. I think it’s pretty simple,” a senior Republican official said. “Of course he was going to say, ‘Oh look, I feel great! Look how badly I beat this puny little virus!’ Meanwhile, it touches every American’s life every day in multiple different ways, and he’s handled it badly and people don’t forget that.” Or, as ex–Trump adviser Sam Nunberg put it, “Everything has just completely gone to shit.”

The polls suggest not just that the president will lose to Joe Biden but that he might lose bigly, in a landslide.

When the coronavirus came to America, the president was preoccupied with more obvious threats. The first positive case was confirmed in Washington State on January 21, and that same day, as he landed in Davos, the Senate was debating an organizing resolution for the president’s impeachment trial. In the Alps, he dismissed the news about the virus at home. “We have it totally under control,” he said. In fact, the president soon thought that things could hardly be going better.

After three years of crisis, the election year had begun with his acquittal on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of justice brought by the House under Articles of Impeachment. At the same time, the economy was booming. In the Democratic primary, which would select his opponent for the general election, the candidate he most feared, Joe Biden, seemed to be choking. And Michael Bloomberg was threatening to blow the whole thing up anyway. Trump thought about the last campaign and, ever superstitious, how to replicate its magic. He was relieved when Hope Hicks, his closest aide, returned to the White House after two years in exile in Los Angeles. Around the same time, he welcomed back Johnny McEntee, a former aide he believed to be a MAGA whisperer, capable of knowing exactly what would appeal to his base. He didn’t think about the coronavirus much. And then the deaths began.

“If the president had his way, he’d be back in February,” Newt Gingrich told me. The former Speaker of the House is an opportunist, and in the era of Donald Trump, that means he must be an optimist. In 2016, Gingrich supported Trump’s campaign in the hope that he’d be asked to be the vice-president. Instead, Trump repaid his loyalty not with power or higher status in history but with the cushiest gig in Europe: He made Gingrich the husband of the United States ambassador to the Vatican, based in Rome. Before the pandemic, whenever you’d call the guy, he was in a loud restaurant — “Hi! Yeah?! This is Newt!” — having the time of his life. So one might understand why he’s invested in keeping this whole thing going.This is what it looks like when the president knows he’s losing, but it’s also close to what it looked like when he won.

Gingrich grasps better than most how to stick to a message, and he keeps a straight face on Trump’s behalf even as he argues things he knows cannot be true. That voter surveys are skewed by the left-wing media. “I think the election is not quite like the public-opinion polls,” he says. That the president’s illness is a political asset. “It gives him a better understanding of what people are going through,” he says. Or that the president doesn’t mean to imply those killed by the virus were weak when he says he’ll beat it because he’s strong. “I think he’s talking about a national attitude. Should it be ‘Hunker down in the basement’ or ‘Reopen the schools’?” he says. Still, he cannot help but break character to admit the obvious: “If the president had his way, there’d be no virus. There’d be historically high employment among Blacks and Latinos. But you don’t get to pick the circumstances in which you run.”

And the circumstances have grown less pickable each day. “I think some of this is sad to watch,” Nunberg said. “It’s getting to the point where he’s almost turning into a laughingstock. What I’m worried about is whether he wants to completely self-destruct and take everything down with him vis-à-vis the election and the Republican Party.” He added, “This is a guy who’s not gonna lose joyfully.”

It does appear at times as though self-destruction may be the point. How else could you explain the Plague Parade circling Walter Reed, in which a very sick Trump boarded a tightly sealed SUV with his Secret Service agents so he could wave at the supporters who had come to fly their flags on the street? Or the Evita-inspired return to the White House, in which a still very sick Trump ascended the staircase to the balcony, ripped off his face mask, and saluted to no one as his photographer snapped away? Or calling in to the Fox Business Channel to suggest his infection may be the fault of the Gold Star military families, since they were always asking to hug him? This is what it looks like when the president knows he’s losing, but it’s also close to what it looked like when he won — after all, he thought he was losing in 2016, too. We all did. “You’re never as smart as you look when you win, and never as dumb as you look when you lose,” according to David Axelrod. In Trump’s case, it may be more like this: What seems like genius when he manages to survive is the very madness that threatens his survival in the first place.

A senior White House official told me there has been an ongoing effort to persuade the president not to do any of this, as there always is during his episodes of advanced mania. Asked what the effort looked like this time, with Trump physically removed from most of the people who might try to calm him down, the official said, “Well, for starters, it’s unsuccessful.”

One former White House official said that stopping Trump from doing something stupid that he really wants to do is possible only if you’re “actually sitting in front of him.” Sick themselves or trying to avoid a sick president, “the people he trusts and respects who would be barriers to that behavior don’t seem to be around,” this person said. “It just looks so chaotic. Duh.

Yeah, duh. It’s very hard to tell the difference between Trump on day 30 of his terms and Trump today. But if you want to see something you never thought you’d see, even from him, take a look at this:

I should have seen Mussolini-style campaign speeches from the White House balcony coming but I confess, I did not.

It’s not just Trump

Republicans celebrate their tax bill — and heap praise on Trump - The  Washington Post
Never forget their deficit busting tax cuts. Never.

THIS is correct and no Democrat running for office should forget to say it every single day:

If you want to know who is causing the pain and suffering, physically, psychologically and economically in this pandemic, look to the Republican party.

It’s not just Trump. Don’t ever forget it.

The swampiest creature of them all

The NY Times has yet another blockbuster expose of Trump’s financial criminality today:

IT WAS SPRINGTIME at President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club, and the favor-seekers were swarming.

In a gold-adorned ballroom filled with Republican donors, an Indian-born industrialist from Illinois pressed Mr. Trump to tweet about easing immigration rules for highly skilled workers and their children.

“He gave a million dollars,” the president told his guests approvingly, according to a recording of the April 2018 event.

Later that month, in the club’s dining room, the president wandered over to one of its newer members, an Australian cardboard magnate who had brought along a reporter to flaunt his access. Mr. Trump thanked him for taking out a newspaper ad hailing his role in the construction of an Ohio paper mill and box factory, whose grand opening the president would attend.

And in early March, a Tennessee real estate developer who had donated lavishly to the inauguration, and wanted billions in loans from the new administration, met the president at the club and asked him for help.

Mr. Trump waved over his personal lawyer, Michael D. Cohen. “Get it done,” the president said, describing the developer as “a very important guy,” Mr. Cohen recalled in an interview.

But Mr. Trump did not merely fail to end Washington’s insider culture of lobbying and favor-seeking.

But Mr. Trump did not merely fail to end Washington’s insider culture of lobbying and favor-seeking.

He reinvented it, turning his own hotels and resorts into the Beltway’s new back rooms, where public and private business mix and special interests reign.

He reinvented it, turning his own hotels and resorts into the Beltway’s new back rooms, where public and private business mix and special interests reign.

As president-elect, he had pledged to step back from the Trump Organization and recuse himself from his private company’s operation. As president, he built a system of direct presidential influence-peddling unrivaled in modern American politics.

As president-elect, he had pledged to step back from the Trump Organization and recuse himself from his private company’s operation. As president, he built a system of direct presidential influence-peddling unrivaled in modern American politics.

Federal tax-return data for Mr. Trump and his business empire, which was disclosed by The New York Times last month, showed that even as he leveraged his image as a successful businessman to win the presidency, large swaths of his real estate holdings were under financial stress, racking up losses over the preceding decades.

Federal tax-return data for Mr. Trump and his business empire, which was disclosed by The New York Times last month, showed that even as he leveraged his image as a successful businessman to win the presidency, large swaths of his real estate holdings were under financial stress, racking up losses over the preceding decades.

But once Mr. Trump was in the White House, his family business discovered a lucrative new revenue stream: people who wanted something from the president. An investigation by The Times found over 200 companies, special-interest groups and foreign governments that patronized Mr. Trump’s properties while reaping benefits from him and his administration. Nearly a quarter of those patrons have not been previously reported.

Read on. This is just stunning. We knew he was corrupt, of course. And that he was making money off the presidency. Of course he was. Just the amount of taxpayer money he’s pocketed at his properties alone is overwhelming. But this report on the pay-to-play is just as bad as we might have imagined.

And to think that he’s now spending hours on social media and right-wing radio and TV carrying on about Hillary Clinton’s emails (yes, he’s obsessing over them again) and talking about how he wants to “lock her up.” You just can’t make this stuff up.

And, by the way, if Joe Biden wins, the Republicans will not blink an eye at accusing him of all the crimes that Trump has flagrantly committed. You know they will. And it is incumbent on the Democrats all all right thinking people to ignore them.