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Month: December 2020

Will they make the Democrats pay for Donald Trump’s sins?

After the Supreme Court delivered a sound rejection of the ridiculous case brought by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton seeking to overturn the election results late Friday, the 19 Republican state attorneys general and 126 House Republicans who made ridiculous fools of themselves by signing on to an amicus brief in support of the case kept a somewhat low profile over the weekend. There were a few who expressed their disappointment and pledged to carry on the fight, while a few thousand unhinged bitter-enders showed up for a rally in Washington as Trump whined and blubbered about as usual on Twitter. That was about it.

The air is finally starting to seep out of the president’s overinflated “Stop the Steal” bubble. On Monday, 538 electors in all 50 state capitals and the District of Columbia will cast their constitutionally mandated votes for president, a key step in formalizing Joe Biden’s win.

That doesn’t mean that Trump is going to concede and make a graceful exit, of course. It’s laughable to even imagine such a thing. He will carry on with the lie that the election was stolen from him until his dying day, and he will milk the grievance of his cult-followers as long as they still adore him and are willing to give him money.

But what is more pertinent than Trump acting like the spoiled, petulant, self-indulgent man-child he has always been is how badly congressional Republicans are behaving. I didn’t have much hope that they’d rise to the occasion but I certainly didn’t think they’d sink as low as they have. The Georgia runoff races weigh heavily here, of course, and perhaps we’ll see some repudiation of Trump by the Republican establishment once that’s settled. (Monkeys might fly out from beneath the Proud Boys’ kilts, too, but it’s highly unlikely. )

The truth is that nobody really knows or what’s going to happen next. As Andrew O’Hehir writes in his recent Salon op-ed, this torturous surreality makes it very difficult to know whether we are dealing with a major threat to everything we hold dear or some kind of “hilarious troll” along the lines of a WWE wrestling tournament. O’Hehir asks if we will ever be able to tell the difference and I’m not actually sure. I suspect the disorientation is a goal in itself.

I do see the contours of some familiar behaviors starting to reassert themselves, however, which leads me to think that the likely outcome of all this will be a return to the comfortable old ways for a while. What I mean is that “mainstream” Republicans will serve as sanctimonious, unctuous manipulators while the wild and crazy backbenchers keep the base in line. The latter will be led by Donald Trump, the “shadow president,” at least for a while, while the professional saboteurs in the GOP leadership do what they do best: cripple the opposition.

For Trump it’s personal. For Mitch McConnell and the GOP establishment, it’s strictly business. They’ve already wasted no time in putting Hunter Biden back in the hot seat, undoubtedly for the singular purpose of torturing the president-elect, who is tremendously sentimental about his family. If they can destroy his only living son, they know they will have destroyed him as well.

Hunter Biden engaged in a corrupt but unfortunately legal and very common scheme to make money by leveraging his important father’s name. We’ve seen this with families going back to the beginning of the republic, most recently with the likes of Donald NixonHugh and Tony RodhamBilly CarterNeil Bush and many others. It’s an ugly little sideline often crudely taken up by the most screwed-up members of the family.

Of course, in the case of the Trumps, the three most prominent adult children, along with son-in-law Jared Kushner and the president himself have behaved in a blatantly corrupt manner from the moment he was elected in 2016. They’ve leveraged their name from Dubai to India to Qatar and beyond while gorging on taxpayer money and tributes from people all over the world attempting to curry favor with the White House.

The press has dutifully reported all that. But the Republican-controlled Congress never really investigated it, certainly not the way the Republicans will go after Hunter Biden if they maintain the Senate majority. They are skillful at weaponizing the congressional investigative power in ways that Democrats never have the guts to do. (Recall that there were 10 investigations into Benghazi, six of those by different Republican-controlled House committees.) By the time they are done, Hunter Biden’s scandal will look like the equivalent of Watergate while Trump’s refusal to divest himself of his companies or show his tax returns will just be part of some vague sense of “norm-busting” that didn’t really add up to anything.

Last week, several career officials at the Department of Justice informed the incoming administration that they want full “independence” from politics, which may be well-intended but in reality may well mean that Attorney General Bill Barr’s recent designation of John Durham as a special counsel charged with “investigating the investigation” will be seen as inviolable by a new AG. The same logic will apply if Trump manages to persuade Barr (or his replacement, if he fires him before Jan. 20) to name special counsels to investigate Hunter Biden or the alleged election irregularities.

Even if the Trump regime doesn’t salt the earth with burrowed-in investigations, a Senate committee sending some sort of criminal referral to the DOJ, after the latter demands insulation from the Biden White House, would likely see its request granted. Even in the House, Democrats may successfully be cowed by GOP pressure to investigate Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., even though he has not actually been accused of wrongdoing, simply to show how fair they are.

You see, Democrats and the Biden team will be anxious to “restore norms” and show they’re not hypocrites, so they’ll go out of their way to accommodate Republicans’ insincere caterwauling about “corruption.” And if Democrats bring up the GOP’s servile acquiescence to Trump’s criminality, Republicans will shake their fists and accuse them of “what-about-ism.” These folks are shameless, so we need to prepare ourselves for an unbelievably smarmy display of sanctimony. The more hypocritical they are, the more energetically they clutch their pearls.

Since the mainstream media has every incentive to make a show of the fact that their relatively tough reporting of the Trump years was not based upon ideological bias, they’ll be more than willing to listen. That old “working the refs” tactic still works, perhaps even more effectively since the right-wing media no longer even pretends to report the truth. It will all be as difficult to untangle as this meticulous response to a Fox News reporter by David Frum.

Can you imagine having to spend that kind of time explaining why you chose not to follow some right-winger down the rabbit hole? That’s part of the old playbook as well. Trump exhausted everyone with his relentless and transgressive misconduct. But establishment Republicans know how to wear down the public in their own style, with baseless accusations and innuendo. They’re now revving up their rusty old smear machine one more time, and everything Trump did during these past four years will have had the perverse effect of making all the players in our great political drama feel the need to make the Democrats pay for it.

It’s Happy Hollandaise time! If you’d like to help keep this old blog going for another year, you can do so here:


“Credible threats of violence”

Armed protesters enter Michigan's state capitol to demand end to  coronavirus lockdown - ABC News
Armed protesters (including a Travis Bickle wannabe) flooded Michigan’s State Capitol in late April. Photo via Australian Broadcasting Corp.

Electors casting votes for president today in Lansing, Mich. will meet behind closed doors inside the State Capitol at 2 p.m. EST. Officials closed all legislative offices in the face of “credible threats of violence.”

Astonishing, right?

The Washington Post reports:

Gideon D’Assandro, a spokesperson for Republican state House Speaker Lee Chatfield, confirmed on Sunday to the Washington Post that Michigan House and Senate leadership consulted with the state police regarding the threats. The state Capitol, where the vote is set to take place, was already set to be closed to the public Monday.

Details about the threats remain unspecified and unconfirmed. D’Assandro declined further comment about the closures, while spokespersons for Whitmer, Michigan State Police and Democratic leaders in the state legislature did not immediately respond to requests for comment late on Sunday.

Amber McCann, a spokesperson for Republican Michigan Senate majority leader Mike Shirkey, said in an email to the Post that the decision to close legislative offices “was not made because of anticipated protests, but was made based on credible threats of violence.”

Very fine people. Very angry-fine people. Very national-security-threat-angry-fine.

Former Acting Assistant Attorney General Mary McCord is Visiting Professor of Law at Georgetown University Law Center. She and a bipartisan group of former national security officials watch with alarm as ordinary conservatives march alongside armed radicals. The line between mainstream and fringe is disappearing, she tells NPR. Mass radicalization is occurring. Elizabeth Neumann, former assistant secretary of counterterrorism and threat prevention at the Department of Homeland Security, considers the conservative media world as a portal to a separate reality.

A Separate Reality” used to mean Carlos Castaneda’s vision-trips with Yaqui Indian sorcerer Don Juan, all fueled by peyote and magic mushrooms. All today’s wingnut seeker needs to get there is a radio, a TV, an internet connection, and an AR-15.

Will Democrats fight?

Photo: Santa Cruz Sentinel sportswriter Jim Seimas.

Today the Electoral College elects the next president of the United States. The anachronistic ritual is pro forma. There should be no surprises unless the con man of Mar-a-Lago has managed to bribe a few electors since his snubbing by the Supreme Court on Friday.

It is never a good bet to think Donald J. Trump won’t stoop that low or lower. But the question Democrats have to answer now both for others and for themselves is what they will do to defeat the New Confederacy that announced itself last week.

Democrats’ first instinct will be to put the Recent Unpleasantness behind them, to pretend it never happened, and to move on to delivering improved lives for the American people. Improving people’s lives is laudable, and it will be Joe Biden’s instinct even in the face of implacable opposition by Republicans in the House, in the Senate, and by his foes in right-wing media. Given the events of this weekend in the streets of Washington, D.C., Democrats may face fists and arms there too.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi assured voters ahead of the impeachment of Donald J. Trump that Democrats’ efforts on Americans’ behalf would not stop just because of impeachment proceedings. “@realDonaldTrump and Republicans in Washington want you to think Democrats can’t walk and chew gum at the same time,” Pelosi tweeted. Now Democrats get to prove them wrong again.

One of the outgoing president’s most virulent supporters.
IRONY.

Under a Biden administration, will Democrats hold Republicans officials accountable for criminal misconduct in office? For betraying their oaths of office? Have they the temperament for it, a friend wondered Sunday. Because if miscreants walk again, as they have in the past because Democrats were too squeamish about engaging that political fight, we will see worse in a few, short years. And not in the average 15-year interval since Watergate, either. Bet money on it.

Our Sunday conversation recalled a post I wrote here nearly four years ago:

The Ring has to go to Mordor
by Tom Sullivan

The biggest challenge Democrats face is not Donald Trump, but constitution. Not the one in the National Archives, but their inner constitution.

The Democratic Party as an “establishment” organization is conservative by disposition. When shaken or defeated, or when facing the unknown, like now, such organizations by reflex seek safety in the comfortable and familiar. They shy from risk. Democrats fret about what Republicans might say about them at election time. Inner circles across the country worry about fundraising: regular donors might not support untested, young leaders. Democrats fret about how a new direction might induce “division in the party.” (Translation: chieftains might have less influence going forward). That is,

… they like to be the deciders of whose turn it is. There is a tendency to hang onto power and not to cultivate new leadership possessing skills they don’t understand. Old boys would rather turn over the reins to old chums — regardless of their skills — when they can’t chew the leather anymore.

Institutional reserve leaves Democrats as a party in a perpetual, defensive crouch, looking for all the world more like abused spouses than bold leaders. All defense, as if in the age of Trump they have something left to lose.

It seems we have a republic to lose. If Democrats will not hold the New Confederacy to account, it will grow stronger and the republic weaker. Americans will not trust the kids who let bullies take their lunch money to lead them. They will not support a party that will not defend itself or the country they cherish. Sad to say, many would prefer an autocrat. They’ve set that precedent.

The post above came after a conversation with a friend:

So this week I saw Rogue One — Jyn Erso: will she fight? — just before having a beer with a local elected official. After confiding my concerns about Democrats playing it safe in the age of Trump, my friend summed up the situation in a single, powerful metaphor: “The Ring has to go to Mordor. It won’t help to carry it back to The Shire.”

I’ve noted before: How many Rocky movies did Stallone make? And they’re all the same movie. So why do people keep going? Because so many Americans themselves feel like underdogs. We want to root for the little guy with heart. Facing insurmountable odds. Risking it all. We want to feel the thrill up our spines and in the tops of our heads when Bill Conti’s trumpet fanfare introduces the training sequence. We want to hear that. Wait for it. Cheer for it. Pay for it. Over and over and over.

Democrats think politics is about good policy and good governance. It is. But only if you win the power to make it happen. Elections are not about good policy. If Trumpism has not disabused Democrats of that fantasy, there’s no hope for them. Voters want leaders — even phony ones — willing to fight for them and to risk themselves in the effort. Wimps need not apply. Stern words to not count.

Shameless Sore Losers

The ensuing fight promises to shape how President Trump’s base views the election for years to come.
The ensuing fight promises to shape how President Trump’s base views the election for years to come

They’re going over the cliff:

President Trump lost key swing states by clear margins. His barrage of lawsuits claiming widespread voting fraud has been almost universally dismissed, most recently by the Supreme Court. And on Monday, the Electoral College will formally cast a majority of its votes for President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.

But as the president continues to refuse to concede, a small group of his most loyal backers in Congress are plotting a final-stage challenge on the floor of the House of Representatives in early January to try to reverse Mr. Biden’s victory.

Constitutional scholars and even members of the president’s own party say the effort is all but certain to fail. But the looming battle on Jan. 6 is likely to culminate in a messy and deeply divisive spectacle that could thrust Vice President Mike Pence into the excruciating position of having to declare once and for all that Mr. Trump has indeed lost the election.

The fight promises to shape how Mr. Trump’s base views the election for years to come, and to pose yet another awkward test of allegiance for Republicans who have privately hoped that the Electoral College vote this week will be the final word on the election result.

For the vice president, whom the Constitution assigns the task of tallying the results and declaring a winner, the episode could be particularly torturous, forcing him to balance his loyalty to Mr. Trump with his constitutional duties and considerations about his own political future.

The effort is being led by Representative Mo Brooks, Republican of Alabama, a backbench conservative. Along with a group of allies in the House, he is eyeing challenges to the election results in five different states — Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia and Wisconsin — where they claim varying degrees of fraud or illegal voting took place, despite certification by the voting authorities and no evidence of widespread impropriety.

“We have a superior role under the Constitution than the Supreme Court does, than any federal court judge does, than any state court judge does,” Mr. Brooks said in an interview. “What we say, goes. That’s the final verdict.”

Isn’t that special? You’ve just got to love their stubborn adherence to the spirit of democracy don’t you? Or at tleast the concept of “one Trump cultists, one vote.”

This won’t work, of course. But I have to say I will love watching MIke pence dance on the head of a pin when it happens:

Under rules laid out in the Constitution and the Electoral Count Act of 1887, their challenges must be submitted in writing with a senator’s signature also affixed. No Republican senator has yet stepped forward to say he or she will back such an effort, though a handful of reliable allies of Mr. Trump, including Senators Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Rand Paul of Kentucky, have signaled they would be open to doing so.

The president has praised Mr. Brooks on Twitter, but has thus far taken no evident interest in the strategy. Aides say he has been more focused on battling to overturn the results in court.

Even if a senator did agree, constitutional scholars say the process is intended to be an arduous one. Once an objection is heard from a member of each house of Congress, senators and representatives will retreat to their chambers on opposite sides of the Capitol for a two-hour debate and then a vote on whether to disqualify a state’s votes. Both the Democratic-controlled House and Republican-controlled Senate would have to agree to toss out a state’s electoral votes — something that has not happened since the 19th century.

[…]

“My No. 1 goal is to fix a badly flawed American election system that too easily permits voter fraud and election theft,” Mr. Brooks said. “A possible bonus from achieving that goal is that Donald Trump would win the Electoral College officially, as I believe he in fact did if you only count lawful votes by eligible American citizens and exclude all illegal votes.”

It remains unclear how broad a coalition he could build. More than 60 percent of House Republicans, including the top two party leaders, joined a legal brief supporting the unsuccessful Texas lawsuit asking the Supreme Court to overturn the election results. But it is one thing to sign a legal brief and another to officially contest the outcome on the House floor.

Some Republicans including Representative Scott Perry of Pennsylvania and Matt Gaetz have also signaled they could support an objection. Mr. Brooks said he had been speaking with others who were interested. But prominent allies of the president who have thrown themselves headfirst into earlier fights, like Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio or even the House minority leader, Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, have so far been publicly noncommittal.

“All eyes are on Jan. 6,” Mr. Gaetz said on Fox News Friday night after the Supreme Court rejected Texas’ suit. “I suspect there will be a little bit of debate and discourse in the Congress as we go through the process of certifying the electors. We still think there is evidence that needs to be considered.”

Mr. Paul, Republican of Kentucky, said he would “wait and see how all the legal cases turn out” before deciding what to do.

Mr. Johnson plans to hold a hearing this week “examining the irregularities in the 2020 election,” featuring Ken Starr, the former independent counsel who is a favorite of the right, and at least two lawyers who have argued election challenges for Mr. Trump. Whether he proceeds to challenge results on Jan. 6, he told reporters last week, “depends on what we find out.”

So yes, they are planning to turn it into a circus.Some probably believe this horsehit and some are likely just setting the table to take on “voter fraud” so they can cheat the way they are falsely accusing the Democrats of doing. (It’s yet another example of “I know you are but what am I” politics.)

But that’s not all, oh no:

President Donald Trump is angry that Attorney General Bill Barr knew about investigations into Hunter Biden but did not make them public until after the election, according to a new report by The Wall Street Journal.

“President Trump has expressed interest in pursuing the appointment of a special counsel to investigate allegations of fraud in the November elections and issues related to Hunter Biden, according to people familiar with the matter. In recent days, the president has directed advisers to look for people who could serve in such a position, one of the people said, as lawsuits and other efforts by Mr. Trump and his campaign to reverse the election results founder,” the newspaper reported Friday evening.

There might be two special counsels appointed.

“White House chief of staff Mark Meadows has told people that the president is interested in pursuing a special counsel to investigate election fraud and wants to act quickly, one of the people said. Senior White House officials have also discussed the possibility of pursuing a special counsel to investigate Hunter Biden, expressing frustration over Attorney General William Barr’s handling of investigations into Mr. Biden’s business and financial dealings and concern that the incoming administration of Joe Biden could seek to shut down any probes into Mr. Biden’s son, Hunter, an administration official said,” The Journal reported.

“Mr. Trump has expressed rising frustration with his attorney general in recent months, privately and publicly, according to aides, as efforts by the president and his supporters to overturn the election have repeatedly failed,” the newspaper reported. “Mr. Barr’s announcement that the Justice Department hadn’t found evidence of widespread election fraud that would reverse Mr. Biden’s victory infuriated the president, the aides said, and Mr. Trump has openly accused the Justice Department of being involved in the election fraud he has alleged.”

If Barr won’t do this I guess he’ll have to appoint a new AG — I’m sure there’s some toady he can put in there — to appoint these two special counsels on the last day and insulate them from being fired. (A new AG has the authority to fire a special counsel for cause but the idea is that these, like the Durham probe, would be too politically hot for a Biden AG to do it.) That is the Whitewater template, only in that case they pressured Clinton’s own AG into naming an Independent Counsel for every stupid scandal they dreamed up.

Gird yourselves. The entire GOP is on board a campaign to sabotage the new administration. It’s really the only thing they know how to do.

Inadvertent confession

Oh Newtie. You just can’t help yourself, can you?

Does he know what he’s saying? Or does he just think it doesn’t matter anymore?

I think it’s the latter. Republicans are just letting their freak flags fly now. No need for dogwhistles or reading between the lines. It’s all pure partisan power.

Here’s Raffensperger responding to a Georgia official:

They were fine with it when it was Republicans who mostly took advantage of absentee voting. Now that Democrats decided to do it too (rather than stand in line for the usual 12 hours to vote — in the middle of a deadly pandemic) they don’t like it so much.

Raffensperger doesn’t like being told he did a bad job so he’s defending the idea that the election was run fairly under the rules and you can’t change them after the fact.

But nobody should get the idea that he’s off the team:

“…unchecked liberal, socialist agenda to federalize elections, pack SCOTUS and raise taxes.” Get outta here …

I don’t think that’s going to get him back in the good graces of the Trumpies and it’s pathetic that he’s even trying. They are sending “sexualized” threats to his wife and threatening to kill him. And yet he still wants to be a member of their team.

This whole thing has certainly clarified who the Very Fine People on their side really are. Some of them aren’t carrying torches and shouting “Jews will not replace us.” But they’re still walking beside them.

An Epic Economic Failure

There are many things about the Trump era that infuriate and frustrate me. I don’t know if I’ll ever fully get past the trauma of it. But the incessant bragging about how much he’s “done for the country” especially the bragging about his allegedly great economy is right at the top of the list.

It was always BS and after his monumental fumbling of the pandemic and the economic fallout it’s been a historic failure. Why they are able to keep up the pretense that he was a good steward of the economy is a reflection of long-standing prejudice in favor orf Republicans and the phony “a businessman knows what he’s doing” myth they perpetuated for decades. If we lived in any kind of reality the fact that he’s leaving office being the first president to lose jobs in his term and the overall dumpster fire of his presidency should explode those myths once and for all. Sadly, polling shows that this is the one issue on which Trump still gets majority approval.

Anyway, here’s some truth from John Harwood of CNN, worthy of bookmarking in case you ever have to reply to some Trump Liar on Facebook on this subject:

President Donald Trump still can’t accept the numbers measuring his loss to Joe Bidenmore than 7 million popular votes and 74 electoral votes.

But another set of numbers adds insult to his psychological injury. They show that — notwithstanding lies as promiscuous as the ones he tells about election fraud — Trump will leave office in January with a historically bad record on the economy.

That sounds discordant since many Americans believe the economic fable that Trump has repeated relentlessly throughout his term. But placing his bottom-line results alongside those of his predecessors paints a deeply unflattering portrait.

Alone among the 13 presidents since World War Two, Trump will exit the White House with fewer Americans employed than when he started. He will have overseen punier growth in economic output than any of the previous 12 presidents.

His throwback “America First” agenda has failed to restore the old economic engine that powered an earlier era’s prosperity. On Trump’s watch, industrial production has fallen. The Federal Reserve says the manufacturing sector fell into recession in 2019 even before the coronavirus pandemic hit.Last week was the 38th in a row in which at least 700,000 Americans filed first-time claims for unemployment benefits.

Holiday-season lines at food banks dramatize the scale of human suffering. More abstract measures, such as the US trade deficit and ratio of government debt to the size of the economy, have also worsened during Trump’s term.

“Trump’s economic record ranks near or at the bottom compared with other presidents,” concludes Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi, who compared the economic results of all presidents from the last 70 years. “The economy under his watch has performed very poorly.”To be sure, the deadliest public health pandemic in a century has devastated economic activity during this last year of the President’s term. But responding to unexpected catastrophe — from hurricanes to terrorist attacks to civil unrest to financial crises — represents a big part of the job. And, as Zandi notes, Trump’s bungled coronavirus response has exacerbated and extended damage to jobs and output.

Trump’s record offered little legitimate grounds for boasting before the pandemic. The persistent growth in output and decline in the unemployment rate during his first three years extended trends in the recovery from the Great Recession that he inherited from President Barack Obama.Growth accelerated in early 2018 following Trump’s sole major legislative achievement, the tax cuts he and Congressional Republicans enacted. But that didn’t last long with the economy already near full employment, and the budget deficit swelled. A temporary surge in investment resulted mainly from higher energy prices.

“It provided no long-term benefit,” Zandi says.The counter-productive tariff wars Trump initiated quickly offset any short-term benefit from the tax-cuts and the administration’s deregulation push. That’s why Trump, to avoid further damaging the economy in his re-election year, called a truce with China in January without obtaining the structural reforms he had demanded from Beijing. Trump earlier threw away leverage by abandoning the Trans-Pacific Partnership with allies that the Obama administration had negotiated.

Among Trump’s “very serious policy mistakes,” Zandi said, were his attacks on international and domestic institutions. They include “actively trying to undermine” the Fed’s independence.Trump can accurately point to above-average financial market gains. Through November the S&P 500 had risen by an average of 14.34% per year during his term, slightly more than the 12.43% under Obama.

But those gains have largely been driven by rock-bottom interest rates, which drive investors into stocks in search of higher returns. And the benefits of those gains accrue largely to the most affluent Americans who own most of the stocks.

The President can also cite a higher-than-average 3.32% annual gain in real per capita disposable income. But that average conceals the extent of those gains that flowed to the affluent, who benefited disproportionately from his tax cuts.

As a candidate in 2016, Trump championed the beleaguered blue-collar workers he called “the forgotten Americans.” His policies have not closed the gap between them and economic elites.

Through the third quarter of 2020, Zandi says, the least wealthy 50% of Americans own just 1.9% of the nation’s net worth, while the top 1% own 30.5%. The surging pandemic promises make that disparity worse before Trump leaves office.

When the Labor Department issues the final monthly jobs report of his presidency in early January, Zandi expects it to show a renewed decline in employment. In the first quarter of 2021, as Trump yields power to Biden, the Wall Street firm JPMorgan predicts that economic output will shrink.

Crisis on crisis

We have a lot of problems. Big problems. Huge. The immediate crisis we face is the pandemic and the resultant economic fallout. It’s going to take everything we have to fix that and it will undoubtedly require a ton of energy and focus over the next year. The medium crisis we face is the assault on democracy by the Republican Party and the growing economic inequality which is making everything worse. And, of course, there is the existential long term crisis of climate change, which simply cannot wait any longer.

All of these are urgent and must be dealt with if we plan to survive as a country — and a species.

Al Gore weighs in on all this and it’s very good. And hopeful!:

This weekend marks two anniversaries that, for me, point a way forward through the accumulated wreckage of the past year.

The first is personal. Twenty years ago, I ended my presidential campaign after the Supreme Court abruptly decided the 2000 election. As the incumbent vice president, my duty then turned to presiding over the tallying of Electoral College votes in Congress to elect my opponent. This process will unfold again on Monday as the college’s electors ratify America’s choice of Joe Biden as the next president, ending a long and fraught campaign and reaffirming the continuity of our democracy.

The second anniversary is universal and hopeful. This weekend also marks the fifth anniversary of the adoption of the Paris Agreement. One of President Trump’s first orders of business nearly four years ago was to pull the United States out of the accord, signed by 194 other nations to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases threatening the planet. With Mr. Trump heading for the exit, President-elect Biden plans to rejoin the agreement on his Inauguration Day, Jan. 20.

Now, with Mr. Biden about to take up residence in the White House, the United States has the chance to reclaim America’s leadership position in the world after four years in the back seat.

Mr. Biden’s challenges will be monumental. Most immediately, he assumes office in the midst of the chaos from the colossal failure to respond effectively to the coronavirus pandemic and the economic devastation that has resulted.

And though the pandemic fills our field of vision at the moment, it is only the most urgent of the multiple crises facing the country and planet, including 40 years of economic stagnation for middle-income families; hyper-inequality of incomes and wealth, with high levels of poverty; horrific structural racism; toxic partisanship; the impending collapse of nuclear arms control agreements; an epistemological crisis undermining the authority of knowledge; recklessly unprincipled behavior by social media companies; and, most dangerous of all, the climate crisis.

What lies before us is the opportunity to build a more just and equitable way of life for all humankind. This potential new beginning comes at a rare moment when it may be possible to break the stranglehold of the past over the future, when the trajectory of history might be altered by what we choose to do with a new vision.

With the coronavirus death toll rising rapidly, the battle against the pandemic is desperate, but it will be won. Yet we will still be in the midst of an even more life-threatening battle — to protect the Earth’s climate balance — with consequences measured not only in months and years, but also in centuries and millenniums. Winning will require us to re-establish our compact with nature and our place within the planet’s ecological systems, for the sake not only of civilization’s survival but also of the preservation of the rich web of biodiversity on which human life depends.

The daunting prospect of successfully confronting such large challenges at a time after bitter divisions were exposed and weaponized in the presidential campaign has caused many people to despair. Yet these problems, however profound, are all solvable.

Look at the pandemic. Despite the policy failures and human tragedies, at least one success now burns bright: Scientists have harnessed incredible breakthroughs in biotechnology to produce several vaccines in record time. With medical trials demonstrating their safety and efficacy, these new vaccines prefigure an end to the pandemic in the new year. This triumph alone should put an end to the concerted challenges to facts and science that have threatened to undermine reason as the basis for decision-making.

Similarly, even as the climate crisis rapidly worsens, scientists, engineers and business leaders are making use of stunning advances in technology to end the world’s dependence on fossil fuels far sooner than was hoped possible.

Mr. Biden will take office at a time when humankind faces the choice of life over death. Two years ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned of severe consequences — coastal inundations and worsening droughts, among other catastrophes — if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced by 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030 and 100 percent by 2050.

Slowing the rapid warming of the planet will require a unified global effort. Mr. Biden can lead by strengthening the country’s commitment to reduce emissions under the Paris Agreement — something the country is poised to do thanks to the work of cities, states, businesses and investors, which have continued to make progress despite resistance from the Trump administration.

Solar energy is one example. The cost of solar panels has fallen 89 percent in the past decade, and the cost of wind turbines has dropped 59 percent. The International Energy Agency projects that 90 percent of all new electricity capacity worldwide in 2020 will be from clean energy — up from 80 percent in 2019, when total global investment in wind and solar was already more than three times as large as investments in gas and coal.

Over the next five years, the I.E.A. projects that clean energy will constitute 95 percent of all new power generation globally. The agency recently called solar power “the new king” in global energy markets and “the cheapest source of electricity in history.”

As renewable energy costs continue to drop, many utilities are speeding up the retirement of existing fossil fuel plants well before their projected lifetimes expire and replacing them with solar and wind, plus batteries. In a study this summer, the Rocky Mountain Institute, the Carbon Tracker Initiative and the Sierra Club reported that clean energy is now cheaper than 79 percent of U.S. coal plants and 39 percent of coal plants in the rest of the world — a number projected to increase rapidly. Other analyses show that clean energy combined with batteries is already cheaper than most new natural gas plants.

As a former oil minister in Saudi Arabia put it 20 years ago, “the Stone Age came to an end, not because we had a lack of stones, and the oil age will come to an end not because we have a lack of oil.” Many global investors have reached the same conclusion and are beginning to shift capital away from climate-destroying businesses to sustainable solutions. The pressure is no longer coming from only a small group of pioneers, endowments, family foundations and church-based pension funds; some of the world’s largest investment firms are now joining this movement, too, having belatedly recognized that fossil fuels have been extremely poor investments for a long while. Thirty asset managers overseeing $9 trillion announced on Friday an agreement to align their portfolios with net-zero emissions by 2050.

Exxon Mobil, long a major source of funding for grossly unethical climate denial propaganda, just wrote down the value of its fossil fuel reserves by as much as $20 billion, adding to the unbelievable $170 billion in oil and gas assets written down by the industry in just the first half of this year. Last year, a BP executive said that some of the company’s reserves “won’t see the light of day,” and this summer it committed to a 10-fold increase in low-carbon investments this decade as part of its commitment to net-zero emissions.

The world has finally begun to cross a political tipping point, too. Grass-roots climate activists, often led by young people of Greta Thunberg’s generation, are marching every week now (even virtually during the pandemic). In the United States, this movement crosses party lines. More than 50 college conservative and Republican organizations have petitioned the Republican National Committee to change its position on climate, lest the party lose younger voters.

Significantly, in just the past three months, several of the world’s most important political leaders have introduced important initiatives. Thanks to the leadership of Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, the E.U. just announced that it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent in the next nine years. President Xi Jinping has pledged that China will achieve net-zero carbon emissions in 2060. Leaders in Japan and South Korea said a few weeks ago said that their countries will reach net-zero emissions in 2050.

Denmark, the E.U.’s largest producer of gas and oil, has announced a ban on further exploration for fossil fuels. Britain has pledged a 68 percent reduction by 2030, along with a ban on sales of vehicles equipped with only gasoline-powered internal-combustion engines.

The cost of batteries for electric vehicles has dropped by 89 percent over the past decade, and according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, these vehicles will reach price parity with internal-combustion vehicles within two years in key segments of vehicle markets in the United States, Europe and Australia, followed quickly by China and much of the rest of the world. Sales of internal-combustion passenger vehicles worldwide peaked in 2017.

It is in this new global context that President-elect Biden has made the decarbonization of the U.S. electricity grid by 2035 a centerpiece of his economic plan. Coupled with an accelerated conversion to electric vehicles and an end to government subsidies for fossil fuels, among other initiatives, these efforts can help put the nation on a path toward net-zero emissions by 2050.

As the United States moves forward, it must put frontline communities — often poor, Black, brown or Indigenous — at the center of the climate agenda. They have suffered disproportionate harm from climate pollution. This is reinforced by recent evidence that air pollution from the burning of fossil fuels — to which these communities bear outsize exposure — makes them more vulnerable to Covid-19.

With millions of new jobs needed to recover from the economic ravages of the pandemic, sustainable businesses are among the best bets. A recent study in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy noted that investments in those enterprises result in three times as many new jobs as investments in fossil fuels. Between 2014 and 2019, solar jobs grew five times as fast in the United States as average job growth.

Still, all of these positive developments fall far short of the emissions reductions required. The climate crisis is getting worse faster than we are deploying solutions.

In November of next year, all of the signatories to the Paris Agreement will meet in Glasgow with a mandate to reduce greenhouse gas emissions much faster than they pledged to do in 2015. What will be new in Glasgow is transparency: By the time the delegates arrive, a new monitoring effort made possible by an array of advanced technologies will have precisely measured the emissions from every major source of greenhouse gases in the world, with most of that data updated every six hours.

With this radical transparency, a result of efforts of a broad coalition of corporations and nonprofits I helped to start called Climate Trace (for tracking real-time atmospheric carbon emissions), countries will have no place to hide when failing to meet their emissions commitments. This precision tracking will replace the erratic, self-reported and often inaccurate data on which past climate agreements were based.

Even then, a speedy phaseout of carbon pollution will require functional democracies. With the casting of a majority of the Electoral College votes on Monday for Mr. Biden, and then his inauguration, we will make a start in restoring America as the country best positioned to lead the world’s struggle to solve the climate crisis.

To do that, we need to deal forthrightly with our shortcomings instead of touting our strengths. That, and that alone, can position the United States to recover the respect of other nations and restore their confidence in America as a reliable partner in the great challenges humankind faces. As in the pandemic, knowledge will be our salvation, but to succeed, we must learn to work together, lest we perish together.

Al Gore shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for his work to slow global warming.

The right wing smear machine powers up

This twitter thread from Never-Trumper David Frum is interesting because it doesn’t apply to Donald Trump and yet it is … right. Go figure.

Keep your eyes open to this stuff. It’s just starting. And it’s good to have some of the former wingnuts alert to how this works and exposing it. I don’t know that more than a handful of Republicans around the country are listening to these guys but it’s worth noting that 25-30% of Republicans are telling pollsters that they believe Biden won the election fairly so maybe they are at least slightly open to reality.

I got overnight via email a query from @briansflood at Fox News, the principal part of which I reproduce below. I answered by email too. I’ll append that reply in the next threaded tweet:

My reply:

Hunter Biden’s dubious business activities have been reported for years. Here for example is @TheAtlantic in September 2019, year *before* @nypost

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/09/hunter-bidens-legal-socially-acceptable-corruption/598804/

That emails attributed to Hunter Biden were circulating was also known well before the NYPost story in October. Here’s TIME magazine

https://time.com/5902557/hunter-biden-rudy-giuliani-ukraine/

What @nypost added to the work earlier done by others was a new *origin* story for the materials that circulated in Ukraine in 2019. When other media organizations attempted to corroborate that story, hijinx ensued. https://www.thedailybeast.com/man-who-reportedly-gave-hunters-laptop-to-rudy-speaks-out-in-bizarre-interview’s @thedailybeast account

I doubt that anybody at any responsible media organization holds any particular brief for Hunter Biden. I sure don’t. If he did wrong, he should face the consequences. But Hunter Biden’s legal situation was not what was at issue with the NY Post report.

What was at issue in the NYPost story were these two questions: “Is this material about Hunter Biden being promoted by Steve Bannon and Rudy Giuliani genuine? If yes, where does this material come from?”

In November 2019, Russian spy agencies hacked servers at Burisma, the Ukrainian company on whose board Hunter Biden sat. The NYTimes reported in January 2020:

When the Trump White House shopped purported Hunter Biden materials to reputable news organizations like the Wall Street Journal, reporters went to work verifying authenticity and sourcing. That process unnerved the Trump White House and its allies.

The Trump White House and its allies wanted their purported Hunter Biden materials to be published with no uncomfortable questions asked about its authenticity and its origins. For that, they turned to the New York Post.

Even after the NYPost published, the Trump team still refused other media organizations the information they needed to verify the NYPost story. This behavior – plus the selective leaking to pro-Trump outlets that didn’t bother with verification – naturally sowed suspicion.

Now there’s a new report on DoJ investigation of Hunter Biden’s activities. That report is of course something every media organization will want to dig deeper into.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/09/justice-department-interest-hunter-biden-taxes-444139

But those latest stories, properly sourced, do not confer retrospective rehabilitation on what the NY Post was doing in October – or on the Trump White House officials doing Trump campaign work at taxpayer expense.

Last point. It very often happens that presidents must deal with family members who try to trade on their relationship to power: James Roosevelt, Donald Nixon, Billy Carter, Hugh Rodham – it’s a recurring problem.

I’ve suggested from time to time that one way to deal with that problem is to require publication of tax returns by any member of the First or Second family who accepts Secret Service protection.

But even that answer – tax returns for Secret Service – only carries us so far. In the end, there’s probably no once-and-for-all legal remedy to the problem of relatives trading on power. The ultimate guarantor of ethical standards must be vigilant media and a concerned public.

At the same time, it’s essential to keep a sense of proportion. For the past four years, the US government has been led by the most corrupt president in history. Trump’s children and their spouses eagerly grabbed their pieces of the action too, again on a scale never before seen.

It may turn out that Hunter Biden is our next generation Jimmy Roosevelt or Donald Nixon. It’s right to expose that, and to demand that the Biden administration distance from him.

But when the Trump family tries to excuse its massive depredations by invoking Hunter Biden’s activities – we have left earth’s orbit.

When Donald Trump Jr. asks, “Can you imagine if I did … ” the right answer is : Junior, you did that -and worse- just before breakfast today

So there’s my answer to the @briansflood query – and to the pro-Trump trolls who have been frolicking in my Twitter timeline over the past 24 hours. I’ll put it here, where they live – aware that the truth may not matter much to them, but confident it matters to everybody else.

Originally tweeted by David Frum (@davidfrum) on December 11, 2020.

It will always be uncomfortable to endorse anything David Frum says. But when he’s right, he’s right.

Feeling sad for the snowflake in chief

Or is he a Big Strongman who makes the libruls cry?

That’s rich coming from the “fuck your feelings” crowd.

I would think there has to be some psychological dissonance among these people at this point. After all, their big, dominating, super-hero president is whining like a little baby to the point where his worshipers feel sorry for him.

But there’s always been an aspect of this that’s just WWE wrestling, isn’t there? They know it’s an act but they they cheer and boo anyway.

So, this is going well

They seem nice:

Thousands of maskless rallygoers who refuse to accept the results of the election turned downtown Washington into a falsehood-filled spectacle Saturday, two days before the electoral college will make the president’s loss official.

In smaller numbers than their gathering last month, they roamed from the Capitol to the Mall and back again, seeking inspiration from speakers who railed against the Supreme Court, Fox News and President-elect Joe Biden. The crowds cheered for recently pardoned former national security adviser Michael Flynn, marched with conspiracy theorist Alex Jones and stood in awe of a flyover from what appeared to be Marine One.

But at night, the scene became violent. At least four people were stabbed after repeated brawls near 11th and F streets NW between the Proud Boys, a male-chauvinist organization with ties to white nationalism, and counterprotesters.

The victims were hospitalized and suffered possibly life-threatening injuries, said D.C. fire department spokesman Doug Buchanan. It was not immediately clear with which groups the attackers or the injured might have been affiliated.

The violence escalated after an evening of face-offs that took place near Black Lives Matter Plaza, Franklin Square, Harry’s Bar — a hangout popular with Trump supporters — and other spots around downtown.

At first, officers in riot gear successfully kept the two sides apart, even as the groups splintered and roamed. In helmets and bulletproof vests, Proud Boys marched through downtown in militarylike rows, shouting “move out” and “1776!” They became increasingly angry as they wove through streets and alleys, only to find police continuously blocking their course with lines of bikes.

“Both sides of the aisle hate you now. Congratulations,” a Proud Boy shouted at the officers.

But before long, the agitators determined to find each other were successful — and posturing quickly turned into punching, kicking and wrestling.

Again and again, officers swarmed, pulling the instigators apart, firing chemical irritants and forming lines between the sides. At Harry’s Bar, an ambulance arrived, but the extent of injuries was unknown.

Each time a fight was de-escalated, another soon began in a different part of town.

D.C. Police Chief Peter Newsham made a brief appearance in the chaos, telling protesters: “We’re doing the best we can.”

Nothing to worry about folks. They’re just kooky Real American Trump voters. It’s all good.