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Month: July 2021

“My dope was a dupe!”

“Or…my dupe was an innocent dope,” Fanny Brice (Barbara Streisand) followed in that Funny Girl exchange with reporters about her husband’s arrest.

The unfunny Melania Trump is not commenting yet on this story from The Guardian. Nor has Trump himself:

Vladimir Putin personally authorised a secret spy agency operation to support a “mentally unstable” Donald Trump in the 2016 US presidential election during a closed session of Russia’s national security council, according to what are assessed to be leaked Kremlin documents.

The key meeting took place on 22 January 2016, the papers suggest, with the Russian president, his spy chiefs and senior ministers all present.

They agreed a Trump White House would help secure Moscow’s strategic objectives, among them “social turmoil” in the US and a weakening of the American president’s negotiating position.

Russia’s three spy agencies were ordered to find practical ways to support Trump, in a decree appearing to bear Putin’s signature.

By this point Trump was the frontrunner in the Republican party’s nomination race. A report prepared by Putin’s expert department recommended Moscow use “all possible force” to ensure a Trump victory.

Western intelligence agencies have been aware of the documents for months, the product of “a serious and highly unusual leak from within the Kremlin.” Independent experts The Guardian consulted deem them authentic.

“A great pulp fiction,” responds Putin spokesman Dmitri Peskov.

More:

The report – “No 32-04 \ vd” – is classified as secret. It says Trump is the “most promising candidate” from the Kremlin’s point of view. The word in Russian is perspektivny.

There is a brief psychological assessment of Trump, who is described as an “impulsive, mentally unstable and unbalanced individual who suffers from an inferiority complex”.

That was obvious to anyone looking closely, and from a lot closer than the Moscow.

There is also apparent confirmation that the Kremlin possesses kompromat, or potentially compromising material, on the future president, collected – the document says – from Trump’s earlier “non-official visits to Russian Federation territory”.

The Kremlin hoped to use Trump’s election to exploit a “deepening political gulf between left and right” as well as the pre-existing anti-establishment mood that grew under Barack Obama. Putin got his wish.

Andrei Soldatov, an expert on Russia’s spy agencies and author of The Red Web, said the leaked material “reflects reality”. “It’s consistent with the procedures of the security services and the security council,” he said. “Decisions are always made like that, with advisers providing information to the president and a chain of command.”

He added: “The Kremlin micromanages most of these operations. Putin has made it clear to his spies since at least 2015 that nothing can be done independently from him. There is no room for independent action.” Putin decided to release stolen DNC emails following a security council meeting in April 2016, Soldatov said, citing his own sources.

Former UK ambassador to Moscow, Sir Andrew Wood, offers that Putin is a more competent version of Trump and also believes himself incapable of mistakes.

Trump is one of the biggest mistakes American voters ever made. At least some of them recognized that by November 2020.

If you can keep it

There are no YouGov polls to reference from ahead of April 12, 1861. No internet or computers, save in alternate history. The divide in the states then was generally among those free and slave. We know how that worked out.

If the country was ever as united as its name boasts, it was perhaps during World War II, twenty years short of a century ago. Then, the enemy was external. Times change.

A YouGov survey of “a representative sample of Americans and an expert sample of political scientists” conducted for Bright Line Watch reveals that “Americans have reasons to worry about the state of their democracy.” But you did not need a poll for that.

The illustration at the top shows the results of one of Bright Line’s questions asked only of the general public: “Would you support or oppose [your state] seceding from the United States to join a new union with [list of states in new union]?” They asked the question of respondents in the states of the proposed regional unions.

Note that their national sample was heavily Democrat.

Bright Line comments:

As in our previous report, we caution that this survey item reflects initial reactions by respondents about an issue that they are very unlikely to have considered carefully. Secession is a genuinely radical proposition and expressions of support in a survey may map only loosely onto willingness to act toward that end. We include the question because it taps into respondents’ commitments to the American political system at the highest level and with reference to a concrete alternative (regional unions). 

… As in the previous survey, levels of expressed support for secession are arrestingly high, with 37% of respondents overall indicating willingness to secede. Within each region, the dominant partisan group is most supportive of secession. Republicans are most secessionist in the South and Mountain regions whereas it is Democrats on the West Coast and in the Northeast. In the narrowly divided Heartland region, it is partisan independents who find the idea most attractive. 

These patterns are consistent from our January/February survey, but the changes since then are troubling. Our previous survey was fielded just weeks after the January 6 uprising. By this summer, we anticipated, political tempers may have cooled — not necessarily as a result of any great reconciliation but perhaps from sheer exhaustion after the relentless drama of Trump. For instance, the historian Heather Cox Richardson posited that sustained consideration of the Big Lie narrative would diminish political ardor among Trump supporters, which she related to waning popular support for secession in the Confederacy during the spring of 1861. 

Yet rather than support for secession diminishing over the past six months, as we expected, it rose in every region and among nearly every partisan group. The jump is most dramatic where support was already highest (and has the greatest historical precedent) — among Republicans in the South, where secession support leapt from 50% in January/February to 66% in June. Support among Republicans in the Mountain region increased as well, by 7 points, from 36% to 43%. Among Democrats in the West, a near-majority of 47% (up 6 points) supports a schism, as do 39% (up 5 points) in Northeast. Support jumped 9 points among independents in the Heartland as well, reaching 43%. Even subordinate partisan groups appear to find secession more appealing now than they did last winter, though only increases for Democrats in the South, Heartland, and Mountain regions are statistically discernible at the 0.05 significance level. The broad and increasing willingness of respondents to embrace these alternatives is a cause for concern.

Other key findings:

  • Constitutional hardball politics like gerrymandering, packing the Supreme Court or blocking Court nominees, voter suppression, abolishing the filibuster, adding new states to the union, or refusing to certify election results enjoy little support among the public and, with few exceptions, among experts. However, these strategies appear to go unpunished by voters when used by elites.
  • Experts expect these tactics to be used more frequently in the years ahead, rating extreme partisan gerrymandering a near certainty; obstruction of Supreme Court nominations highly likely; and refusal to certify popular vote totals as a likely outcome as well. By contrast, the experts place low probability on hardball tactics that are more favored by Democrats, such as adding states to the union, abolishing the filibuster, or packing the Supreme Court.
  • Among the electoral reform proposals recently adopted or currently under consideration in the states, experts perceive grave threats from bills that encroach on the political independence of local election officials and that restrict mail voting.
  • Exposure to information about the official audit in Maricopa County, Arizona more than doubled confidence in the vote count in Republicans, suggesting that information about standard processes intended to verify the results of elections can be reassuring to skeptical members of the public. Surprisingly, exposure to news about the partisan “audit” there also increased confidence among Republicans somewhat, though this effect seems unlikely to persist when the supposed results of that process are announced.
  • The legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election and Donald Trump’s actions afterward remain central to how Americans assess political candidates. In the past six months, Democrats and Republicans have not budged in how they reward or punish prospective candidates for voting to certify the election and for Trump’s impeachment. Independents did shift in favor of candidates who supported the certification of the 2020 vote and who supported transportation infrastructure spending.
  • Experts rate Donald Trump’s continued refusal to accept the results of the 2020 election as highly abnormal and important.

Again, it’s not that people are actively considering breaking up the union. But asked to consider it, they will. Let’s see where people are again in a few months after child care tax credits start rolling in today.

Good 4 her!

Singer and actress Olivia Rodrigo went to the White House today to help persuade young people to get vaccinated. “Get vaccinated!” should be the slogan of the summer and when they get it we should all sing “Good 4 U!”

Meanwhile, her’s Olivia’s hit, which I think every female can relate to. (I’m sure some men can relate to it too… 🙂

A young Texan brings the fuego

He showed how it’s done.

James Tallerico is the youngest representative in the Texas State legislature. And he brought it to Fox News’ top war crimes defender, Pete Hegseth:

Hegseth accused Talarico of being used “as a prop or puppet” by Democrats in Washington.

“I’m an eighth-generation Texan,” Talarico said. “I’ve only been in DC twice in my life … I’m a former middle-school teacher who ran for office just to try to make my community better and I swore an oath when I first got elected two years ago to uphold the constitution.

“The constitution of the United States, and also the constitution of the great state of Texas. And after our former President Donald Trump started his big lie that the election was stolen. Republican legislators in capitols across the country started …”

Hegseth interrupted.

“How did you make this about Donald Trump in 20 seconds?” he asked.

Trump’s lie that his defeat was the result of electoral fraud fueled the deadly attack on the US Capitol on 6 January and attempts by Republicans around the US to restrict voting rights. In May, Texas Democrats left the state capitol to stop the bill passing. In July, they left the state.

“Why are you not in Texas,” Hegseth asked, “and why are you in Washington DC doing press conferences with federal officials?”

“What I was saying,” Talarico said, “is when President Trump lost the election he told Republicans across the country that he didn’t lose the election, and this caused Republican legislators in state capitals from Georgia to Austin to start putting forward bills that would make it harder to vote.

“Texas is one of the hardest places to vote in the whole country. And so when me my Democratic colleagues tried to negotiate with our fellow legislators, most of them Republicans, to try to make the bill less damaging, less harmful, less dangerous to constituencies across the state of Texas, unfortunately our Republican colleagues didn’t want …”

Hegseth interrupted again, raising the issue of alleged electoral fraud and the need for partisan poll watchers.

“Do you remember a second ago when I talked about the big lie?” Talarico asked. “This is exactly what I’m talking about. The reason so many folks believe it is true is because folks like you get on television every night and repeat the lie over and over again.”

Hegseth said Talarico opposed voter ID. Talarico said he opposed measures that sought to make it harder for people to vote.

Hegseth, he added, had “made a lot of money personally and you’ve enriched a lot of corporations with advertising by getting on here and spewing lies and conspiracy theories to folks who … what I’m asking you to do is tell your voters right now that Donald Trump lost the election in 2020.

“Did Donald Trump lose the election in 2020? Can you answer the question? Did Donald Trump lose the election in 2020?

Hegseth said: “I think I’m answering the questions.”

Talarico said: “Is it an uncomfortable question for you?”

Hegseth said: “No.”

The Fox News host – who once achieved fame for claiming not to wash his hands because germs “are not a real thing” – ended the interview by criticising Talarico and his fellow Democrats for flying to Washington on a private plane without wearing masks.

Talarico said the Texas Democrats were fully vaccinated against Covid-19.

The truth just sounds different, doesn’t it?

Incitement to a lynching

“Who shot Ashli Babbitt? We all saw the hand. — Donald Trump

When I heard Trump going on about the officer who shot Ashli Babbit I thought this might be where he’s going. Josh Kovensky at TPM spells it out:

They have a specific individual in mind, a Capitol police officer that they believe to be the culprit in the killing. He happens to be a black man.

It’s a detail that, once known, places the calls for the officer to be exposed and punished in a new light. The ensuing witch hunt takes on a racial tinge, casting Babbitt as a defenseless white woman killed by a black man.

And it’s a context that has allowed Trump and others to blow the dog whistle on the case as loud as possible. He venerated Babbitt as “an innocent, wonderful, incredible woman,” adding, “if that were on the other side, the person that did the shooting would be strung up and hung.”

[…]

In an appearance with Fox Business’s Maria Bartiromo last week, Charlie Kirk, the Turning Point USA director, pointed to a story by Paul Sperry, a reporter with RealClearInvestigations, that attempted to identify the officer in question. The same person had been labeled as the culprit by right-wing blogs such as the Gateway Pundit weeks before.

Officials have not publicly released or confirmed the identity of the officer who shot Babbitt; TPM has not confirmed the officer’s identity. And while that crucial fact hasn’t been confirmed, some far-right groups have already satisfied themselves that they know who it is, and are using that as the basis to build out a palace of grievance over her death.

Babbitt was one of the many Jan. 6 insurgents that Trump had stranded in a reality where, in fact, Biden had stolen the election. The conservative movement has been trying to use her death to recast the insurrection as a case of innocents being killed.

But the fringe right has molded that narrative to incorporate the explicit use of Babbitt’s race. Racist influencers have also emphasized that Babbitt was killed by a black man, explicitly mixing her supposed martyrdom with the race of the person that shot her.

“With Sicknick’s autopsy, it’s now official: no people were killed by the nationalist demonstrators on January 6th,” wrote far-right propagandist Erik Striker in April, on his Telegram channel. “The only homicide victim that day was Ashli Babbitt, murdered by a black criminal with a badge whose identity is still being kept a secret by the media and the government.”

Western Chauvinist, a Telegram channel with nearly 50,000 subscribers, drew racist comparison’s between Babbitt’s death and that of George Floyd.

“Unlike St. Fentanyl Floyd, Ashli Babbitt will receive no justice from this sick anti-white system,” read an April message on the channel. “But WE will always remember her sacrifice and she will never be forgotten.”

In June, Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio posted on his own Telegram channel a message from another account that showed video of a black Capitol police officer on Jan. 6 along with still images of Babbitt’s shooting.

“This black man was waiting to execute someone on january 6th,” the message reads. “He chose Ashli Babbitt.”

In some cases, the racial dynamic is blatant. In others, the dog whistle operates at a less explicit frequency, via layers of obfuscation and deniability.

One thread throughout has been an effort to stoke resentment by drawing comparisons between the mass outrage at the death of George Floyd and what they perceive to be the comparative silence at Babbitt’s killing. In that universe, she’s an unsung martyr not only of the stolen 2020 election, but of the supposedly unfair treatment of whites.

Or, as Fox News’s Tucker Carlson put it in a monologue about Babbitt in April: “Two systems of justice. One for the allies of the people in charge, and a very different one for their enemies.”

Dinesh D’Souza, the conservative commentator, walked a similar line as he described the killing on a Monday episode of his podcast as a parallel with Floyd’s death, suggesting that Babbitt’s race meant she was treated badly and that the cop who killed her was protected.

“But the reason this cordon of protection has gone around him, not only from the authorities but from the media, is they can’t afford to admit that the only lethal force used on Jan 6 was illicitly, inappropriately, and in violation of law — used by a black male capital police officer against a female unarmed trump supporter,” he said.

D’Souza took the narrative even further in the podcast, portraying her as an innocent, unarmed white woman who fell victim to an Black man wielding federal power, and using the lack of transparency from Capitol police on the shooting and on the response to Jan. 6 as a way to stoke racial resentment.

“There have been a number of police shootings,” D’Souza noted. “Can you think of a single case where the identity of the officer has been systematically concealed by the media?”

He then asked listeners why.

The answer, he said, is because the officer is “black.”

“And so we have right away, a racial incident in the sense that you’ve got a black cop shooting and killing an unarmed white woman, who, by the way, is also a veteran,” he said. “And this white woman was doing nothing more in this case than pushing her way through a window.”

Similar comparisons have made their way into radical right members of Congress. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) made the same comparison this week to the death of George Floyd.

“If this country can demand justice for someone like George Floyd,” she said, “then we can certainly demand justice for Ashli Babbitt and everyone deserves to know who killed her … we need to know who it is.”

[…]

Both Rep. Gosar and Trump have used language that, when heard in the context of the officer’s race, sounds very different.

“Who was the person who shot an innocent, wonderful, incredible woman?” Trump told Bartiromo on Sunday. The former president said last week about the officer: “If that were on the other side, the person that did the shooting would be strung up and hung.”

Gosar, who has associated with far-right figures like Nick Fuentes and popularized the idea that Babbitt is a martyr, has made similar remarks. He released a statement last week describing Babbitt as “110-pound woman with nothing in her hands.”

She, Gosar said, was a victim of “a still unknown Capitol Hill police officer.”

But it was still Trump who went the furthest in the mainstream, coming up to the edge without going over.

“If that were the opposite way, that man would be all over,” Trump said. “He would be the most well-known — and I believe I can say ‘man,’ because I believe I know exactly who it is — but he would be the most well-known person in this country, in the world.”

Koensky goes into some analysts’ assumption that this is a typical “anti-government” response like Ruby Ridge. It is not. This is a blatant, racist response that is using the George Floyd killing as a pretext for defending an angry, violent white insurrectionist who was hunting for members of congress with the apparent intent of doing them harm.

As I have written many times, using the rhetoric of social justice and liberal values to degrade both is a familiar right wing tactic. Using it to turn Ashli Babbit into George Floyd takes it to yet another level of grotesque gaslighting.

Javanka and Nikki?

Everybody’s covering their bases:

On Sunday morning, Donald Trump appeared on Fox News and teased a 2024 run. “We’re gonna do very well and people are going to be very happy,” he told host Maria Bartiromo.

Later that day, his daughter Ivanka’s in-laws were hosting a private lunch for a would-be rival. According to two sources briefed on the event, Jared Kushner’s parents invited about 20 friends to meet former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley at the Kushners’ beach house on the Jersey Shore. The Kushners’ chef prepared a meal of salad and salmon. At the event, Jared’s father Charles Kushner predicted that Haley would be “the first woman president,” one of the sources said. Some attendees made donations to Haley’s Stand for America PAC. (Charles Kushner did not respond to requests for comment).

Haley has made no secret of her 2024 ambitions. During a speech in New Jersey on Sunday night, Haley said she has “a big decision to make at the beginning of ‘23.” (A spokesperson for Haley did not respond to a request for comment).

If she runs, as many suspect, it will force Jared and Ivanka to choose between Trump family loyalty and one of their closest political allies (When she left the administration, Haley infamously described Jared as “a hidden genius”). Jared and Ivanka were in Aspen over the weekend and didn’t attend Charles Kushner’s lunch, a person close to Jared said. But last month, the couple was spotted visiting Haley and her husband, Michael Haley, at the Kiawah Island beach club in South Carolina. “They think very highly of Nikki. They get along great,” the person said.

Charles Kushner’s Haley lunch is another indication that Haley is aggressively courting religious Jews, who formed a key part of Trump’s base. On Sunday night, Haley delivered a speech in front of 800 attendees at an event on anti-Semitism sponsored by the Chabad of the Shore in Long Branch. Last month, she visited former Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu with Christians United for Israel founder John Hagee.

I can’t say this surprises me. If I had to guess, if Trump wins the nomination in ’24, I’m pretty sure Nikki Haley will end up being the VP nominee. (It sure as hell won’t be Pence.) Anything can happen, of course. Maybe Trump won’t make it to the finish line. He’s 76 after all. If that happened some of the leftover Trump power will fall to the family, so this is smart of Haley on a number of levels.

And Javanka is clearly trying to set themselves up as the “sane” mainstream Trumpers who have no responsibility for the shitshow we just endured.

Never forget.

“Freedom over Fauscism”

I thought I couldn’t hate anyone more than Trump but Ron DeSantis is challenging that assumption:

Fox News host Tucker Carlson suggested that he should be criminally investigated. Republican members of Congress introduced a “Fire Fauci Act” to remove his salary.

Now White House medical adviser Anthony S. Fauci — a polarizing figure in the U.S. response to the coronavirus — is also part of a rising GOP star’s political branding.

“Don’t Fauci My Florida,” read drink koozies and T-shirts that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s campaign teamrolled out just as his state sees some of the highest coronavirus hospitalizations, new infections and deaths per capita in the country. It’sthe latest example of Republicans running on their opposition to virus-fueled shutdowns and mask mandates. A pandemic hero to some and villain to others, Fauci has become a high-profile target.

While the merchandise is focused on Florida before the 2022 gubernatorial race there, DeSantis is seen as a potential front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination in 2024. A key part of his pitch: He resisted public health experts’ calls for stricter measures against the spread of the coronavirus, spurring criticism on the left andpraise from the right for keeping his state’s schools and economy comparatively open.https://30bcac4ba61073ef53aa1f32c0d861c7.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-38/html/container.html

While discussing the Florida budget this summer, DeSantis said his state’s rosy financial outlook would not have been possible “if we had followed Fauci.”

“Instead we followed freedom,” he said.

His campaign’s “Team DeSantis” Twitter account announced the new merchandise Monday. The Fauci items are listed alongside “Keep Florida Free” hats and red koozies that take aim at face coverings with a DeSantis quote: “How the hell am I going to be able to drink a beer with a mask on?”

The campaign team did not respond to The Washington Post’s questions Tuesday, and Fauci did not respond to a request for comment.

Florida right now:

Almost 3,000 Floridians are being hospitalised each day, according to the New York Times, the highest number in the nation and the fourth-highest per capita. New cases increased by 429% over the past 14 days, a dramatic surge only superseded by that in Tennessee.

That is meaningless to him. He’s owning the libs and that’s the key to success in the GOP.

He’s also killing his own voters — only the unvaccinated are dying at this point and most of them are Republicans — which seems to be politically foolish but whatever. But now that kids are getting it, and young parents, this seems even more cruel than before. In fact, it should be criminal that these right wing nihilists aren’t doing everything they can to tamp down this virus.

I’m afraid they are going to be elected president instead.

Update: Tennessee says “hold my beer cooler”

First came public service ads alerting teenagers in Tennessee that they were eligible to get vaccinated for Covid-19. Then, the state’s top immunization leader, Dr. Michelle Fiscus, distributed a memo that suggested some teenagers might be eligible for vaccinations without their parents’ consent.

By this week, Dr. Fiscus said she was fired — a circumstance she attributed to pushback among Republican lawmakers in the state, who have complained that the Tennessee Department of Health had gone too far in its efforts to raise awareness of the shot among young people.

The Tennessean, the Nashville newspaper that earlier reported Dr. Fiscus’s dismissal, also reported on Tuesday that the health department was pulling back its vaccination outreach efforts to children for all diseases — not just the coronavirus — amid the backlash from lawmakers.

Now they want to make sure kids get sick and die from all the diseases. Maybe if they work at it they can bring back smallpox and polio too.

Trump’s Justices are much happier with him than he is with them

According to “Landslide,” Michael Wolff’s new book about the final days of the Trump administration, former President Trump is very disappointed in his handpicked Supreme Court justices, particularly Brett Kavanaugh. As Axios reports:

There were so many others I could have appointed, and everyone wanted me to. Where wouldhe be without me?I saved his life. He wouldn’t even be in a law firm. Who would have had him? Nobody. Totally disgraced. Only I saved him.

He did? Kavanaugh had a lifetime appointment on the D.C. Court of Appeals when Trump nominated him and would have sailed through the nomination process for the Supreme Court if Christine Blasey Ford hadn’t stepped forward with her accusations of sexual assault when they were high school students. Trump has reportedly claimed that Republican senators begged him to pull the nomination saying, “Cut him loose, sir, cut him loose. He’s killing us, Kavanaugh.” Trump supposedly responded, “I can’t do that,” telling Wolff, “I went through that thing and fought like hell for Kavanaugh — and I saved his life, and I saved his career. At great expense to myself … okay? I fought for that guy and kept him.”

Yes, this sounds so much like Trump. Everyone knows his word is his bond and he’s loyal as the day is long. Wolff also quote Trump as saying:

I don’t want anything … but I am very disappointed in him, in his ruling. I can’t believe what’s happening. I’m very disappointed in Kavanaugh. I just told you something I haven’t told a lot of people. In retrospect, he just hasn’t had the courage you need to be a great justice. I’m basing this on more than just the election.

Since the election seems to literally be the only thing Trump can think about it’s hard to know what else he might be referring to. It’s likely that there has been some grumbling, among those who have made pilgrimages to kiss the ring, that Kavanaugh has not voted with the far-right justices in every case, as they appointed him to do. Trump doesn’t care about that unless it affects him personally, of course, but he considers “his justices” to have been placed on the court to do what they’re told and he doesn’t like it when they are perceived to have deviated from their orders.

But let’s face it, his carping is really about the election. Back in September, Trump made his expectations clear:

His rationale for pushing through Amy Coney Barrett so close to the election was to ensure there were enough votes to decide the contest for him, as he made even clearer a few days later:

I think this [election] will end up in the Supreme Court. And I think it’s very important that we have nine justices. This scam that the Democrats are pulling — it’s a scam — the scam will be before the United States Supreme Court. And I think having a 4-4 situation is not a good situation, if you get that. I don’t know that you’d get that. I think it should be 8-0 or 9-0. But just in case it would be more political than it should be, I think it’s very important to have a ninth justice.

He assumed “his justices” would take up any election case and would naturally vote in his favor, regardless of the facts or the circumstances. They owed him.

None of Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani’s post-election lawsuits made it up the ladder to the court, because they were all garbage. But before the election Kavanaugh was notably amenable to Trump’s arguments about mail-in votes being counted after the election, in a Wisconsin case in which the court affirmed a lower court ruling that the state Supreme Court could not extend the deadline. He also looked favorably on an idea percolating in right-wing legal circles for some time about who gets to decide election cases. Slate’s Mark Joseph Stern raised the alarm about a footnote in Kavanaugh’s concurrence, in which he endorsed a notoriously extreme argument from the Bush v. Gore case:

William Rehnquist, joined by Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas — tried to overturn the Florida Supreme Court’s interpretation of the state’s own election law. As a rule, state Supreme Courts get final say over the meaning of their own state laws. But Rehnquist, Scalia, and Thomas argued that SCOTUS must review their decisions to ensure they comply with the “intent of the legislature.” In other words, the Supreme Court gets to be a Supreme Board of Elections that substitutes state courts’ interpretation of state law with its own subjective view of a legislature’s “intent.” 

Anthony Kennedy and Sandra Day O’Connor refused to sign on to that at the time, and Chief Justice John Roberts didn’t go along with it this time around either. But it’s fair to ask if the new Trump majority of Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett would. Considering Roberts’ hardline views on voting rights, he might, in the end, throw his lot in with them on this too.

There was a lot of chatter around the election about whether or not state election officers and courts have the authority to administer elections. We’ve recently seen state legislatures take action against the secretaries of state and nonpartisan election officials. If the Supreme Court sees fit to make itself the final arbiter of the states’ election laws, it’s entirely possible that this court would be open to letting GOP legislatures capriciously change the laws to their advantage — or even overturn elections. It’s almost certain that any new voting rights laws passed in this Congress will find a hostile majority when cases make their way through the court. It would not be surprising if this Supreme Court was very good for Trump and his movement over the next few years.

Not that it matters, as far as the right-wing justices and their backers are concerned. They wouldn’t actually be doing it for Donald Trump, even if he might benefit from it — and even though he inspired all this drastic action based upon the Big Lie in the first place. The Republican legal community always saw the big opportunity it had in Trump, and ruthlessly exploited it. Former White House counsel Don McGahn, Leonard Leo of the Federalist Society and their most cynical ally, Sen. Mitch McConnell, recognized that they could remake the federal courts and use them to secure power, even as a declining electoral minority. Little did they know that Trump’s loss and the Big Lie that followed would supercharge that plan the way it has.

Trump may be unhappy with “his justices,” but that’s because he never understood that he wasn’t using them. They were using him, and they are perfectly happy with how it’s turned out so far.

Salon

Acting like winners

Still image from Rocky (1976).

“Almost by definition, liberals are the ones pushing for change while conservatives are merely responding to whatever liberals do,” Kevin Drum wrote recently. Damon Linker argues this is true because “Democrats have moved further and faster to the left than Republicans have moved to the right.” But is that right?

Thomas Edsall consulted Jacob Hacker at Yale who writes:

It strains credulity to argue that Democrats have been pushing culture-war issues more than Republicans. It’s mostly Republican elites who have accentuated these issues to attract more and more working-class white voters even as they pursue a plutocratic economic agenda that’s unpopular among those voters. Certainly, Biden has not focused much on cultural issues since entering office — his key agenda items are all bread-and-butter economic policies. Meanwhile, we have Republicans making critical race theory and transgender sports into big political issues (neither of which, so far as I can tell, hardly mattered to voters at all before they were elevated by right-wing media and the G.O.P.).

Democrats have shifted left with the rest of the culture while conservatives have not. It’s no wonder conservatives feel left behind.

Edsall writes:

The Democratic shift to the left reflects in large part a parallel shift in the general public. The median voter has become more liberal and the result is that in 2017, Democratic voters were modestly closer to the median voter than Republican voters (by one point on a 20-point scale).

I asked Brian Schaffner, a principal investigator at the Cooperative Election Study and a political scientist at Tufts, about the Drum and Linker columns. Schaffner made an argument similar to Kiley’s:

The overall median among the population of Americans has moved leftward from 1994 to 2017. Even if Republicans have shifted less than Democrats, compared to their views in 1994, this hardly makes them less extreme in the current moment. To put a finer point on it, imagine an individual who supported school segregation in 1965 and who still held that same view 50 years later. Clearly it is the lack of a shift in views over five decades that would have made that individual extreme in the year 2015.

Schaffner observes that the data

shows a very clear shift among Democrats, while Republicans hardly move at all. But independents are also moving in the same direction as Democrats on these issues. Sure, Republicans aren’t shifting their views, but their unwillingness to update their assessments of racism in America is essentially leaving them behind as the rest of America’s attitudes are evolving.

There is much more at the link. Bottom line: Republicans are going to fight 2022 as a culture war contest and attempt to “gin up enough controversy over the so-called woke agenda” whether or not they can pin the blame on Democrats. Linker believes that benefits Democrats deliver for voters will quench the flames of the culture war, causing it to backfire.

But, says Edsall (and I think he is correct):

If right-wing manipulation of cultural and racial issues does end up backfiring, that will defy the long history of the Republican Party’s successful deployment of divisive wedge issues — from Richard Nixon to Ronald Reagan to George H.W. Bush to Newt Gingrich to George W. Bush to Donald Trump. Republicans have repeatedly demonstrated that the half-life of these radioactive topics is longer than expected, and Democrats, if they want to protect their fragile majority, must be doubly careful not to hand their adversaries ever more powerful weapons.

Or instead of treading lightly like cringes, Democrats might instead lean into the culture war being waged by the right as proof conservatives are losing it and know it. Americans want to support winners. Democrats need to start acting like they are.

“Based” and proud of it

Screen cap from Vice’s “The Rise and Fall of an Alt-Right Gladiator“.

Once upon a time in America, “rednecks” beat up “hippies” for having long hair. That was the 1960s and early 1970s. Then country music stars began sporting mullets. Rednecks followed suit.

Much of movement conservatism grew out of backlash to the various liberations of the 1960s: the Civil Rights movement, women’s liberation, the sexual revolution. Conservative leaders derided the left as radical, anti-American, and having no core values. “Anything goes.” “Do your own thing.” “Moral relativism,” they warned. Then, like rednecks before them, the right followed its cultural icons down darker paths than they accused adversaries of pursuing.

People who raised us at the height of the Cold War warned us that communists would use propaganda and disinformation to destroy America from within. Now, many of those same Real Americans™, self-described patriots, consider trafficking in propaganda and disinformation good, clean fun for the whole family. They are people of the lie. They know it’s wrong and they don’t care.

Monday’s court hearing in Detroit with Team Kraken lawyers proves the case. The Big Lie legal team keeps insisting it be allowed an evidentiary hearing where they can enter into the public record 960 affidavits from people who saw something they thought meant something about which they knew nothing. The documents generated by a Trump voter fraud hotline and website are worthless as evidence, U.S. District Judge Linda V. Parker told them, citing a few. But the truth is not the point. Having courts provide the veneer of credibility to wild accusations is. Lawyers — officers of the court — trying to spin lies into truth is why their careers are on the line.

Dahlia Lithwick considers the legacy of Trumpism and concludes that the lies were always the point:

Back when Donald Trump was the main one telling lies and his boosters were scrambling all around him to make it so, there was a certain comic quality to it all: What was the point in distorting weather maps or crowd sizes just to flatter a weirdo narcissist? Experts in authoritarianism were warning that this type of manipulation was how strongmen cling to power, sure, but it seemed easy enough to push it away and assume that once he was no longer president, the persistent flattery and adjusting of reality for his benefit would stop. But it’s now clear that the falsehood itself is the endgame …

The temptation has always been to try to sort the Trump lies into the hilarious ones and the pernicious ones, but that, too, misses the point. If the lying itself is the objective, the difference between the clueless whopper and the sly distortion is immaterial; in fact, the clueless whopper can be more potent because it offers up greater spectacle and affords more opportunity for performing loyalty. As recently as the second impeachment, the clueless whopper—about peaceful protesters and false flag antifa activists at the capitol—lived largely in the fever swamps. A few months later, it is being parroted by Trump and members of the Senate. The Big Lie, however absurd it might be, can overtake reality so fast the only trick anyone need master is the patience to ride it out. That means the only strategy needed for liars is to repeat the lie. Trump, who had little mastery of most skills, was always a wizard at this move.

For years, Trump used the phrase “many people are saying” to essentially mean “someday people will be saying.” He did so understanding that if you say such things enough times, someone somewhere will parrot it as a fundamental truth, and then your initial statement will be true(ish—many people will be saying the untrue thing). “Many people are saying [this lie]” was always code for “if we get people to say [this lie], it will seem true.” Trump’s admission of that principle at CPAC on Sunday gave away the game. He confessed, about polling numbers, that “if it’s bad, I say it’s fake. If it’s good, I say, that’s the most accurate poll perhaps ever.” The lie thus goes from a fiction in the lizard brain of a dangerously delusional man to headline news to gospel for people who have been trained to invert whatever they see from the news. In which case why wouldn’t Rudy Giuliani advise Trump on election night 2020 that he should simply lie and claim victory? That had been the game all along.

Being able to rewrite history and define reality (or redefine it at will) is perhaps the ultimate power, Orwell thought. Authoritarians such as Trump crave the power Stalin once had. Adhering to norms and societal standards is for the weak. And if there is one thing that makes conservatives cringe it is weakness.

Dave Weigel considers how “based” and “cringe” have become codewords on the right. He explains:

“Based,” an old term usually traced to 1980s cocaine slang, was resurrected by rapper Lil B to mean “not being scared of what people think about you” and “not being afraid to do what you want to do.”

The term gained traction among Trumpists during the 2016 campaign and has survived Trump’s 2020 loss the way Trumpism has survived it.

It’s not complicated, so long as you ignore the usual liberal and conservative labels and view political debate through two frames — “based” or “cringe.” Based means behaving how you want to behave, confident in the belief that you’re right, and that your opposition knows it. Cringe means following rules that you did not write, hewing to norms and tradition and nuance, and broadcasting your own sensitivity to the feelings of others. The cringe politician assumes that the world is changing and he or she had better get ahead of it; the based politician assumes that he or she can stay in the old world and force everyone else to adapt. Nobody claims to be cringe, but plenty of people claim to be based. Part of the fun of declaring yourself being based is getting to label the other side as weak, wrong and pathetic — and, well, cringe.

Half a century after the Lewis Powell memo and the conservative backlash to liberation and long hair, conservatives have let theirs down. What trickled down from the Reagan era was their commitment to ethics and American democratic principles such as one person/one vote. Republicans have devolved from being the “the party of ideas” to being the party of bad ones (Max Boot) or none at all.

Fifty years on, Trump’s radicalized party is anything but conservative. They can lie with abandon. They can flaunt the law. They can be based and proud of it. They can hate anyone openly and boast that it is a sign of strength, not abandonment of principle, community and mutual respect. They haven’t saved the country for conservatism. They’ve been liberated from it.