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Month: August 2021

Because It’s Not Just Talk

Eduard Florea admitted in Brooklyn federal court to threatening to kill Sen. Raphael Warnock.
The face of a man who lived with 1000 rounds of ammo,
75 combat knives, hatchets, and an unreasoning hatred for the United States.

They’re serious. They’re fucking serious:

On Jan. 12, federal agents and police flooded [Eduard] Florea’s neighborhood in Queens, driving an armored truck onto his street and raiding his basement apartment, the New York Daily News reported. Agents discovered more than 1,000 rounds of ammunition, plus hatchets, swords and 75 military-style combat knives

And why did they know to raid his apartment?

Hours before the special Senate runoff in Georgia was called for the Rev. Raphael G. Warnock (D) in the early hours on Jan. 6, Eduard Florea went on the conservative social media platform Parler and wrote: “Warnock is going to have a hard time casting votes for communist policies when he’s swinging with the … fish.”

In a later post, he wrote in reference to Warnock: “Dead men can’t pass [expletive] laws.”

He was a Proud Boy or maybe just a Proud Boy supporter. I’m sure there’s a difference that someone can detect, someone who’s more interested in drawing nuanced distinctions among Nazi-adjacent extremists than yours truly.

As more details emerge, it becomes clear that it was only sheer luck that stood between the fatal mayhem of January 6 and mass slaughter. Luck and some underpaid and utterly indispensable fast-thinking police officers.

The Big Beneficiaries

We know the military industrial complex made huge profits from the wars of the last two decades. The costs were staggering — in the trillions. That alone should make anyone complaining about spending money on US infrastructure or needed human support be told to sit down and shut up. If you want to know what the underlying rationale really was, you need to look no further than those economic incentives.

However, it wasn’t just the military industrial complex. The US spent massive sums on the Afghan Army and government:

The United States insisted on the country’s security architecture but has retrenched from its willingness to pay for it. Since 2014, Washington has provided about 75 percent of the $5 billion to $6 billion per year needed to fund the Afghan National Security Forces while the remainder of the tab was picked up U.S. partner nations and the Afghan government. However, for fiscal year 2021, the U.S. Congress appropriated around $3 billion for Afghanistan’s fighting forces, the lowest amount since fiscal year 2008. This diminution of U.S. support came after Afghan President Ashraf Ghani said his government cannot support its army for even six months without U.S. financial aid.

Although much of the U.S. expenditures pertained to defense, the United States has ostensibly invested in other sectors of Afghan governance. As of June 30, the United States has spent about $144.98 billion in funds for reconstruction and related activities in Afghanistan since fiscal year 2002, including $88.61 billion for security (including $4.6 billion for counternarcotic initiatives); $36.29 billion for governance and development (including $4.37 billion for counternarcotic initiatives); $4.18 billion for humanitarian aid; and $15.91 billion for agency operations.

Although these numbers are staggering, much of U.S. investment did not stay in Afghanistan. Because of heavy reliance on a complex ecosystem of defense contractors, Washington banditry, and aid contractors, between 80 and 90 percent of outlays actually returned to the U.S. economy. Of the 10 to 20 percent of the contracts that remained in the country, the United States rarely cared about the efficacy of the initiative. Although corruption is rife in Afghanistan, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction repeatedly identifies bewildering corruption by U.S. firms and individuals working in Afghanistan.

In many cases, U.S. firms even defrauded Afghans. In 2010, one military official with the International Security Assistance Force explained to New York Times journalist Carlotta Gall that “without being too dramatic, American contractors are contributing to fueling the insurgency.”

There’s a lot of talk about just how corrupt the Afghan government and military were. I don’t doubt it. But let’s not get too morally superior. There was plenty of corruption going on on the US side too. Indeed, if it weren’t for the massive profits to be made we’d have been long gone many years ago.

Profile in Courage

September 14, 2001: The only member of Congress and one of the only members of the Federal government to demonstrate exemplary political and moral courage back then.

Please watch.

Psychological collapse

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1427662130518675459

Yglesias is right. I don’t know if Biden was aware or ignored the intelligence, or what. But I cannot imagine that anyone with a brain thought that if he had accelerated the evacuation it wouldn’t have also accelerated the collapse. One follows the other.

Let’s not forget

This has already been scrubbed from the RNC website:

Charlie Sykes notes that some Never-Trumpers had concerns:

David French wrote of the Trump-Taliban deal back in 2019:

There is a difference between peace and retreat. The Trump administration’s agreement with the Taliban represents a full retreat. It’s an agreement that most Republicans would deplore if a Democrat president made the deal, and they’d be right to be angry. ..

https://twitter.com/barubin/status/1427383096450691074?s=20

ICYMI: Trump’s demands for immediate withdrawal preceded his presidency.

And, as I posted earlier, there’s this:

The happy-sad media

I’m still on the road so unable to really get into this, but for what I can tell, Josh Marshall is right about this. So predictable:

If nothing else for media watchers there’s a fascinating dynamic developing over the last day or so in trying to define the US exit from Afghanistan. It’s not a new dynamic. In fact, it’s one I first saw a quarter century ago when DC’s establishment press got really, really upset that not only Bill Clinton but more importantly most of the country didn’t agree with their take on impeachment in 1998. Official DC was baffled when Democrats actually managed to pick up a few seats in the 1998 midterm that was entirely about impeachment. The specifics of the case are of course pretty radically different. But the dynamic of establishment DC press escalation is not. Politico’s morning newsletter this morning captures the dynamic. It starts quoting David Axelrod making clear that Biden messed up and has admit he messed up but then notes that Biden didn’t get the message and said it was the right decision. A sort of primal scream of “WTF, JOE BIDEN?!?!?!!?!” virtually bleeds through the copy.

After quoting Biden at length saying “I stand squarely behind my decision…” Politico jumps back in: “Of course, that’s not the issue. And Republicans — as well as many in the media — were quick to point that out …”

No, no, no, Joe Biden! that’s not right!

As I’ve made clear repeatedly, it’s not like this is a big win for Biden, at least in the near term. American public opinion is never going to like seeing the people we spent twenty years and a trillion dollars fighting getting comfy in the presidential palace after the US-backed President hopped the first plane out of Kabul. That stings no matter what the backstory. But there’s also little question that the very strong consensus among establishment DC press opinion-makers is not in line with the mood or opinion of most of the country.

At least half a dozen Politico articles in the last 36 hours have run with a snap Morning Consult poll showing that support for Biden’s withdrawal plan has fallen from 69% in May to 49% on Sunday, a whopping 20 point drop. This is hardly surprising: the concept of bringing everyone home is easier to support without pictures of the messy realities of the situation. The data point is listed in this morning’s Politico newsletter as well (“Here’s one bad sign for Biden:”). Not mentioned as far as I can tell in any of these write-ups is this: Even after a weekend of chaotic, ugly images and 48 hours of relentlessly negative news coverage, support and opposition to Biden’s withdrawal plan, according to this poll was 49% in favor and 37% opposed. The fact that the plan still has a net +12 approval even at such a bleak moment is surely a relevant part of the story.

There’s a pretty palpable reflex to keep the storyline in check and Biden is not helping.

That doesn’t mean most of the country is right of course. Political reporters resident in DC often see a lot of the details up close, which it takes a while for the rest of the country to absorb. Sometimes DC based observers get it and the rest of the country never does. But the capital, especially on foreign policy questions, with its connections to national security think tanks, trips to war zones, embed experiences and the like is its own subculture. When it settles on a narrative it can quickly escalate to echo-chamber proportions. Finding out not everyone is going along or agrees can be pretty upsetting and the result is seldom pretty. Of course, maybe it’s just Biden. Maybe the whole country is in line with the folks who run the leads at Politico and The Washington Post and Punchbowl News. But if so, even Biden’s non-compliance seems to be highly, highly upsetting.

The press was desperately waiting for the chance to prove that their criticism of Trump didn’t come from being in the tank for the Democrats. Any Democrat would face that at some point. This issue is perfect because it tickles the national security lizard brain in ways that go way, way back in our history.

Biden decided to rip the band-aid off this long festering wound and it’s very bad. I’m sure they could have done it more efficiently than this, which is chaotic and horrible. But I am very skeptical that this would go well in any case. It’s clear that the Taliban was going to take over very quickly — in fact, we knew that when the Trump administration negotiated directly with the Taliban on the timeline for withdrawal. I can’t imagine that anyone believed otherwise. But the media is pretending that the Americans could have somehow made all this neat and tidy with an orderly withdrawal — without triggering violence between US troops and an escalation — wash, rinse, repeat.

Anyway, more to say as the day goes on. It’s awful and it was always going to be awful to some extent. But the press’s predictability alone should make you skeptical. They default to assumptions of American exceptionalism whenever they get the chance. It’s one of their favorite poses. But America can’t work miracles and its insane reliance on military might to solve the world’s problems fails over and over again.

By the way, where was the press on this story over the last few months/years? For all their hand-wringing about what’s happening there, I don’t recall many attempts to prepare the public for any of it, do you?

Sitting ducks

Afghan civilians are not the only ones in harm’s way this morning (The Guardian):

The US could soon see Covid-19 cases return to 200,000 a day, a level not seen since among the pandemic’s worst days in January and February, the director of the National Institutes of Health warned on Sunday.

While the US currently is seeing an average of about 129,000 new infections a day – a 700% increase from the beginning of July – that number could jump in the next couple of weeks, Dr Francis Collins said on Fox News Sunday.

“I will be surprised if we don’t cross 200,000 cases a day in the next couple of weeks, and that’s heartbreaking considering we never thought we would be back in that space again,” Collins said.

Collins pleaded anew for unvaccinated Americans to get their shots, calling them “sitting ducks” for a Delta variant that is ravaging the country and showing little sign of letting up.

Courtesy of sitting ducks aiding and abetting the Covid pandemic in killing tens of thousands more, the already vaccinated soon will be lining up for a booster shot (New York Times):

The Biden administration has decided that most Americans should get a coronavirus booster vaccination eight months after they received their second shot, and could begin offering third shots as early as mid-September, according to administration officials familiar with the discussions.

Officials are planning to announce the decision as early as this week. Their goal is to let Americans who received the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines know now that they will need additional protection against the Delta variant that is causing caseloads to surge across much of the nation. The new policy will depend on the Food and Drug Administration’s authorization of additional shots.

Officials said they expect that recipients of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which was authorized as a one-dose regimen, will also require an additional dose. But they are waiting for the results of that firm’s two-dose clinical trial, expected later this month.

The first shots will go to nursing home residents, health care workers and emergency workers, the Times reports. But also to those already immunocompromised. My friend Laura (a cancer survivor and new executive director for Health Care Voter) is one of them:

https://twitter.com/lpackard/status/1426582769656909827?s=20

Another friend “in the business” agrees that booster shots will be necessary:

Thanks, refusenik assholes. The Australian Government Department of Health wants a word with you.

https://youtu.be/5v0Xc4dWYH4

The ad was just controversial. The disease is deadly.

America-hating America-lovers

Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul.

America-hating America-lovers are celebrating the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. And what’s not for right-wing extremists to love? A fundamentalist army carrying infantry weapons overran the capitol in just days and drove out the government in power. Winning a second U.S. civil war is what every Three Precenter, Proud Boy, and weekend militiaman dreams of. Our domestic terrorists just failed to pass out the AR-15s at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6. They can chalk up their failed assault to being a dress rehearsal. The Taliban launched the real thing.

Ben Makuch writes at Vice:

“I think Islam is poisonous,” posted an account linked to a former Proud Boys network on Telegram, an encrypted app widely used by the far right. “BUT, these farmers and minimally trained men fought to take their nation back from [world governments]. They took back their national religion as law, and executed dissenters. Hard not to respect that.” 

“If white men in the West had the same courage as the Taliban, we would not be ruled by Jews currently,” said the same post that garnered nearly 2,500 views.

Many of the posts were (like the one above) blatantly antisemitic. So, under “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” principle, perhaps joint Proud Boy-Taliban exercises in the future? There’d be running and tumbling, tips on weapons maintenance, back-slapping and sharing of anti-Jewish memes. Then again, the posters were “quick to point out that they hate the Middle East and people of color.”

Still, the Taliban blitzkrieg got right-wing extremists’ nether regions all tingly:

“To be honest, the Taliban is epic,” said a popular white-nationalist commentator on Telegram, in a post viewed over 2,000 times. “The US had to invade in the early 2000s and stay over 20 years, spending $1 trillion dollars, and dozens of American lives to hold them back. As soon as we left, the Taliban took over the whole country in like 12 hours. LMAO.”

“I celebrate every time the [the U.S. government] is embarrassed. You should too.”

Neo-nazis also celebrated:

“For those unaware, NATO is pulling out of Afghanistan after 20 years of war with the Taliban and losing,” [a blog linked to members of neo-Nazi terrorist organizations the Atomwaffen Division and the National Socialist Order] stated. “This should in fact be celebrated as a victory against the Jewish-controlled world. While the Taliban does have its faults, they are nonetheless a marked enemy of the Jews.”

They continued: “Another reason to celebrate this victory for the Taliban is yet another example that our enemy, this system, is but a paper tiger.”

Meanwhile, the Republican National Committee was too busy wiping away fingerprints and readying a barrage of criticism aimed at Pres. Joe Biden (The Independent):

A web page on the site of the Republican National Committee detailing former President Donald Trump’s work on issues related to terrorism and the Middle East disappeared over the weekend as Taliban militants took control of Kabul and toppled Afghanistan’s government.

The page, which returned a 404 error as of Monday but could still be seen on archive sites, dealt with a number of issues including the Trump administration’s negotiations with the Taliban as well as the normalisation of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.

“President Trump has continued to take the lead in peace talks as he signed a historic peace agreement with the Taliban in Afghanistan, which would end America’s longest running war,” read the web page before it was taken down.

Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) of Colorado strapped on her sidearm before tweeting:

Best of luck with Shooters Grill-Kandahar, Ms. Boebert.

Boebert later joked about desperate Afghans being killed as they tried to climb aboard a taxiing U.S. Air Force jet.

Parker Molloy of The Present Age responds:

https://twitter.com/ParkerMolloy/status/1427417443975188482?s=20

It’s hard to argue with that.

Shaping the narrative

Another smart insight from Rick Perlstein from a while back about the Vietnam withdrawal and which echoes today, posted by a DKos commenter who wrote this:

Now I am against the Iraq war and have been that way since the beginning. But we also have to understand that conservatives are going to try and pin the failure of Iraq on us. We need to be aware of this and be ready to fight it. I am posting this so people can see how they did this with Viet Nam.

This story by Rick Perlstein is great. It examines the myth that congressional liberals voted to cut funds from American troops while they were still fighting in Viet Nam. It also is a good example of how the rightwing noise machine works.

Perlstein wrote this in 2007:

The fact that Hillary Clinton has to sprinkle any Iraq speech with irrelevancies about how she won’t leave American troops without armor is testament to the most perversely successful propaganda campaign in American history. And who’s the figure most responsible for the absurdity?

When Senator Hillary Clinton stepped up to the microphones Wednesday to introduce her new anti-surge bill, the language was so defensive you’d think she was proposing to outlaw Christmas–not to stop one of the most unpopular ideas a president has ever dared to propose. She framed her bill not as an effort to keep President Bush from adding more troops to Iraq (though a Newsweek poll suggests that only 23 percent of Americans support adding troops) but as a bill to add troops to Afghanistan. Most importantly, she made sure to emphasize, “I do not support cutting funding for American troops.” (She repeated that on the NewsHour the next evening: “Instead of cutting funding for American troops, which I do not support because still, to this day, we do not have all of the equipment, the armored Humvees, and the rest that our troops need… .”)

If Americans didn’t think so irrationally about war and the politics of ending it, more people might have thought to ask: Who had suggested she had? Who was she defending herself against? Why would the most cautious politician in the Senate commit anything so morally enormous as “cutting funding for American troops” as they faced a dangerous enemy on the battlefield?

It was one of those Faulknerian moments where the past is not dead–it’s not even past. In fact, no senator in history I’m aware of has ever proposed such a thing. It’s just that we think they did. There is a popular fantasy that liberals in Congress, somehow, at least metaphorically, abandoned American troops in Vietnam–and that, if liberals had their way, they’d do it again in Iraq. This notion was nurtured in the bosom of popular culture–as when Sylvester Stallone, in Rambo: First Blood Part II (1985), sent back to the jungles of Vietnam by his old commander, plaintively asks, “Sir, do we get to win this time?” But it survives even in elite discourse–as when Nixon’s former defense secretary, Melvin Laird, wrote–in a Foreign Affairs article called “iraq: learning the lessons of vietnam”–that “the United States had not lost when we withdrew in 1973.”

n 1970, during the Vietnam war, an amendment to the military procurement authorization act introduced by Republican Mark Hatfield and Democrat George McGovern proposed that, unless President Nixon sought and won a declaration of war from Congress, no money could be spent after the end of the year “for any purposes other than to pay costs relating to the withdrawal of all United States forces.” Of course, withdrawing forces is not cutting funding for them (in fact, it might have turned out to be more expensive in the short term), and Hatfield-McGovern never got more than 42 votes in the Senate–even though, in its second go-round in 1971, 73 percent of the public supported it.

The first time the Senate actually voted to suspend funding for American military activities in Vietnam was in the summer of 1973, two months after the last American combat brigades left, by the terms of a peace treaty Nixon negotiated. That amendment passed by a veto-proof majority–encompassing Republicans and Democrats, conservatives and liberals–of 64 to 26.

Peace was not quite at hand in Vietnam. The corrupt, incompetent, and hardly legitimate South Vietnamese government in Saigon was fighting for its life against the advancing Communist forces from the North. Early in 1974, Nixon requested a support package for the South Vietnamese that included $474 million in emergency military aid. The Senate Armed Services Committee balked and approved about half. A liberal coup? Hardly. One of the critics was Senator Barry Goldwater. “We can scratch South Vietnam,” he said. “It is imminent that South Vietnam is going to fall into the hands of North Vietnam.”

The House turned down the president’s emergency aid request 177 to 154; the majority included 50 Republicans. They were only, as I wrote in The New Republic (“The Unrealist,” November 6, 2006), honoring what Nixon and National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger privately believed. They had gladly negotiated their peace deal under the assumption that South Vietnam would fall when the United States left. What would it have cost to keep South Vietnam in existence without an American military presence? The Pentagon, in 1973, estimated $1.4 billion even for an “austere program.” Nixon and Kissinger were glad for the $700 million South Vietnam eventually got (including a couple hundred million for military aid), because their intention was merely to prop up Saigon for a “decent interval” until the American public forgot about the problem. By 1974, Kissinger pointed out, “no one will give a damn.”

Apparently, they didn’t tell Gerald Ford. He addressed the nation in April of 1975, eight months after becoming president, and implored Congress for $722 million in military aid. The speech was overwhelmingly and universally unpopular–the kind of thing that made Ford seem such a joke to the nation at the time. Rowland Evans and Robert Novak called it “blundering.” Seventy-eight percent of the public was against any further military aid; Republicans like James McClure of Idaho and Harry Bellmon of Oklahoma opposed the appropriation. Republican dove Mark Hatfield said, “I am appalled that a man would continue in such a bankrupt policy”–and Democratic hawk Scoop Jackson said, “I oppose it. I don’t know of any on the Democratic side who will support it.” The Senate vote against it was 61 to 32.

Leading up to the vote, however, Saint Gerald made extraordinary claims–saying that “just a relatively small additional commitment” to Vietnam (compared with the $150 billion already spent there) could “have met any military challenges.” With it, “this whole tragedy”–the imminent fall of Saigon–“could have been eliminated.”

So much for the Pentagon’s claim that $1.4 billion would be an “austere program.” So much for Nixon and Kissinger’s belief that “South Vietnam probably can never even survive anyway.” Ford’s miraculous $722 million somehow became enshrined in public memory as the margin that assured American dishonor. As Laird put it in that Foreign Affairs essay, “[W]e grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory. … We saved a mere $297 million a year and in the process doomed South Vietnam, which had been ably fighting the war without our troops since 1973.”

The public memory of congressional votes on Vietnam from 1970 through 1975 is almost hallucinogenically jumbled. Republican propagandists rely on the confusion. This slender reed of a myth–that congressional liberals are responsible for the fall of South Vietnam–conflates the failed 1970-1971 votes to end the war in South Vietnam, and the overwhelmingly popular (and, on Nixon and Kissinger’s terms, strategically irrelevant) vote to limit military aid to South Vietnam. It is but a short leap for a public less informed than Laird to reach the Rambo conclusion: that this was just the last in a comprehensive train of abuses–exclusively Democratic and liberal–that kept us from “winning” in Vietnam. And that, adding in the mythology about prisoners of war in Vietnam, American troops were, roughly speaking, “abandoned” there.”

It requires some filthy lies to sustain. But the fact that a sad old man is allowed to propound some of them in the foreign policy establishment’s journal of record shows how successful it remains. And the fact that the front runner for the Democratic presidential nomination seems to take it as second nature that she has to defend herself against them shows it, too. Stop it now. No responsible American politician has ever cut funding an American troop needed to fight while he or she was in the field. No responsible American politician ever would. Limiting the number of troops in the theater of operations is not cutting funding for American troops. Neither, of course, is withdrawing them “over the horizon.”

Something to keep in mind today, no?