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Month: February 2022

Nightmare

In the pandemic summer of 2020 I watched “The French Village” about the German occupation during WWII. It’s a great series about civilian life during the war with all the horrors combined with the normal banal dramas of daily life. It felt so distant, so unthinkable although it happened not all that long before I was born. My father fought in the war.

Around the same time I also watched “The Plot Against America” based on Philip Roth’s alternate history of America in which the “America First” hero Charles Lindburgh had become president and turned the country toward fascism. That seemed distant and unthinkable too.

I’m going to watch them again. They don’t seem so unthinkable anymore.

This is right out of “The French Village”. In 2022…

This could be the “The Plot Against America.” In 2022 …

Tucker’s act

Eric Wemple charts the changes over his two decade career. It seems clear to me that he’s always been nothing but a performer who puts on a good show. Now that I think about it, I should have known that from the bow tie:

Back when Tucker Carlson practiced his punditry on MSNBC in the 2000s, he held Russia in low esteem. “The bottom line here is that freedom of the press is disappearing in Russia,” Carlson said in August 2005, after Russia barred ABC News staffers over the network’s interview of a Chechen rebel leader. Carlson agreed with a fellow pundit’s assessment that a “reinstatement of the Russian police state” is afoot; he said that Russia and China “have very different goals from our goals,” that Vladimir Putin was “in league with our enemies,” and that action should be taken against Russian entities doing business in Iran.Opinions to start the day, in your inbox. Sign up.

That was then.

These days, Carlson is providing comfort to the Russian president in what the host on Tuesday night termed a “border dispute” with Ukraine. Addressing the Biden administration’s determination to oppose Russian aggression, Carlson said, “You’re going to win an important moral victory against dastardly old Vladimir Putin, who is much, much worse than Justin Trudeau, just so you know.”

“So you can feel good about that, because — because,” snarked the host. “Let’s see, come to think of it, why would you feel good about that?”

As with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the building blocks for Carlson’s Russophilia — or at least Russoindifferentia — have been lining up for several years now. Sohis propagandaduring this crisis shouldn’t shock his devoted, polemic-accustomed audience.

In November 2019, Carlson was discussing the impeachment of President Donald Trump, which involved U.S. military aid to Ukraine meant to assist in its fight with Russia in Crimea and the country’s east. “Why do I care what is going on in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia?” Carlson asked. “And I’m serious. Why do I care? Why shouldn’t I root for Russia? Which I am.”

Just before that show concluded, Carlson issued a retraction: “Earlier in the show, I noted that I was rooting for Russia in the contest between Russia and Ukraine. Of course, I’m joking. I’m only rooting for America.” Several days later, however, he clarified where his allegiances stood: “I don’t think that we should be at war with Russia. And I think we should probably take the side of Russia if we have to choose between Russia and Ukraine. That is my view,” said Carlson.

Perhaps looking to subtweet Carlson’s whitewash, MSNBC host Rachel Maddow later that week rummaged through an inventory of Russian atrocities: annexingCrimea;helpingNorth Korea evade sanctions; bombing hospitals and civilians in Syria to prop up an authoritarianregime; doping Olympic athletes, “then sabotaging the whole worldwide anti-doping infrastructure”; interferingwith the 2016 U.S. presidential election; exportinghigh-end organized crime; and, of course, killing Kremlin critics.

There’s little chance those outrages escaped the notice of Carlson, who’s easily the best-read, best-informed troll on cable news. He understood the horror of Russia back in his MSNBC days and understands it these days, too.

Which is to say, Putin hasn’t changed; Carlson has. A convincingexplanation for his embrace of Putin — as well as of Hungary’s strongman, Viktor Orbán — comes from the Atlantic’s Anne Applebaum: “The aggrieved Americans who now find their way to Orbán or Vladimir Putin also dislike their own country, albeit for different reasons. They cannot abide its racial diversity, its modern culture, its free press.”

The core of Carlsonism is a roaring contempt for immigrants, whose alleged crimes he hypes and who he says make this country “poorer and dirtier.” Now compare that platform with Putin’s position: “This liberal idea presupposes that nothing needs to be done. That migrants can kill, plunder and rape with impunity because their rights as migrants have to be protected,” Putin told the Financial Times.

Ideological affinity poured out ofCarlson’s on-air lecture Tuesday, in which he blasted “permanent Washington” for its anti-Putinism.

“Why do I hate Putin so much?” mocked the host. “Has Putin ever called me a racist? Has he threatened to get me fired for disagreeing with him? Has he shipped every middle-class job in my town to Russia? Did he manufacture a worldwide pandemic that wrecked my business and kept me indoors for two years? Is he teaching my children to embrace racial discrimination? Is he making fentanyl? Is he trying to snuff out Christianity?”

The message: Putin is no worse than American liberals and various other malefactors.

Perhaps the simplest explanation, however, is just that Carlson isshowing off his extremist bona fides for MAGA viewers. Say stuff that no one else is saying, no matter what; out-Trump Trump; watch the ratings spike.

Consider how Carlson fared when he was voicing less autocratic thoughts. The low-rated MSNBC program that featured him as a reasonable-yet-combative conservative went through “two names, four time slots and multiple formats” before network executives dumped it in 2008.

On this Thursday’s show, Carlson finallybowed to programming realpolitik. With Russian forces blasting their way through Ukraine, the host struck a new tone, calling the Russian action “awful” and saying, “Vladimir Putin started this war. So whatever the context of the decision that he made, he did it.”

But history — and everything we know about Carlson — instructs us not to be fooled. Don’t forget that he denounced the violence of the Capitol riot on the night of Jan. 6, 2021, then adjusted andadjusted until he was casting the rioters as persecuted freedom fighters.

Tucker Carlson has morphed into an unreasonable nihilist who boostswhite nationalism, autocracy and whatever other lunacies are left in the Fox News cupboard. That formula has made his program the No. 1 show on cable news; it’ll mark its sixth baleful year on air this fall. Don’t expect Putin to stay the bad guy that long.

The problem with this is that showboaters like him are often successful in politics.

Bush/Iraq Redux

Why did Bush go to war in Iraq? | Opinions | Al Jazeera
He is responsible for far worse than bad paintings

The parallels between now and 1939 are obvious. But so are the parallels to 2003. The most cynical and flimsiest pretexts for war. Government officials so intimidated that they rubber stamp an utterly unprovoked invasion. Unimaginably swift and horrible violence intended to decapitate the government and replace it with puppets beholden to the invaders. A world united in protest against the invasion — including huge numbers of people in the invading country.

Nearly all of Putin’s strategy is a replay of Bush’s. Very few people have spoken about this eerie parallel publicly. This article makes some interesting points:

Remember that during the Iraq war, Putin’s regime was viscerally opposed to then-US president George W Bush’s “war of choice” against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. Bush neither cared nor listened to his Russian counterpart. The drumbeat for war in Washington was far too loud. 

The neoconservative ideologues who had surrounded Bush were convinced that war in Iraq would reassert what they believed was America’s flagging power in the post-Cold War era and restore American credibility in a region of the world where the United States had little credibility remaining. 

Power shift

America was at the apex of its military power in 2002-03. Its leaders and people were galvanized in the wake of the attacks of September 11, 2001, to wage war upon any enemy they thought they could take on – and the Bush administration was going to do it regardless of what the international community believed or what international norms existed. That Saddam Hussein acted as a cartoon villain was an added inducement for war.

Russia chafed at the time as its power and influence were nowhere near what they are today. Moscow resisted and balked at the Americans but ultimately could do nothing to stop the invasion of Iraq. 

Twenty years later, however, we are at a different point in time. Today, it is the Americans who are at their breaking point; who’ve been humiliated and dejected by 20 years of failed wars, disastrous leaders, and a volatile economic situation at home. The Russians, while nowhere near as potent today as the Americans were in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq, are at their greatest level of power since the end of the Cold War. 

Empowered by extraordinarily high prices of fuel on the global market (Russia is an energy-producing superpower upon which Europe depends for roughly 40% of its energy needs), feeling unstoppable in the face of sclerotic American and ambivalent Europeanopposition, the Putin regime is executing its own rapid invasion of a smaller nation with which it has had a long-standing conflict. 

No amount of caterwauling or virtue-signaling from Western leaders will stop the Russian advance – any more than Russian grandstanding on the eve of the Iraq war could stop Bush’s war of choice. It’s about raw power and will. The Russians have the advantage in these areas today whereas the Americans had the advantages in 2003.

Bloodlust

And like the opening phases of the Iraq war in 2003, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has gone well for Moscow so far. It manipulated the situation flawlessly: probing and provoking its rivals to keep them off balance while playing the various Western leaders off each other repeatedly – all while it massed a force large enough to overcome local opposition but small enough to keep even the most seasoned Western observers uncertain as to Russia’s true intentions…

Vladimir Putin is about to repeat the same mistaken choices that George W Bush made, with similarly terrible results.

Agreed. But let’s make explicit at least one major difference between now and 2003. And also let’s note the depth of Establishment-America’s complicity in Bush/Iraq.

Zelensky (who seems to be both relatively decent and brave) is not, and will never be, comparable to the monstrous Saddam. A monstrous leader is not, however, a viable pretext for invasion. It is insane to imagine Canada or Russia justifying an invasion of the US during Trump with such logic. Similarly, Putin’s pretext for invading Ukraine — and Bush’s for Iraq.

Finally, before we denounce the members of the Russian government for disgraceful cowardice, we shouldn’t forget who voted for the Iraq war. American democracy has been seriously dysfunctional for a very, very long time.

Adding: This post provides, as I see it, some needed context but nothing I’ve written or quoted above in any way justifies the murderous ambitions of Vladimir Putin. The Ukrainian war needs to end immediately, Russia should withdraw and Putin should stand trial for his crimes. As should all leaders who execute invasions of choice.

Put these seeds in your pockets

The Guardian: A woman is being hailed on social media after she confronted a heavily armed Russian soldier and offered him sunflower seeds – so that flowers would grow if he died there on Ukraine’s soil.

“Take these seeds and put them in your pockets so at least sunflowers will grow.”

“From this moment you are cursed.”

A Russian warship on Thursday radioed the 13 Ukrainian border guards on tiny Snake Island in the Black Sea, reports say, demanding they lay down their weapons and surrender:

“I am a Russian warship,” a voice from the invaders said, according to a recording of the communications. “I ask you to lay down your arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed and unnecessary deaths. Otherwise, you will be bombed.”

The Ukrainians responded boldly.

“Russian warship,” came the reply, “go f— yourself.”

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For The Win, 4th Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free, countywide get-out-the-vote planning guide for county committees at ForTheWin.us. This is what winning looks like.

Ukrainian gothic

Photo by Yaryna Arieva via CNN.

These images are not as grim as the drowned Syrian boy washed up on a beach. Nonetheless, I can’t shake them.

https://twitter.com/ScooterSchaefer/status/1497276541981626372?s=20&t=xs_VNq3RfDEDO4wwJCloxQ

CNN:

Ukrainian citizens Yaryna Arieva and Sviatoslav Fursin got married just hours after Russia launched its invasion of their country. They spent their first day as a married couple collecting their rifles and getting ready to defend Ukraine.

It was supposed to be a May wedding, but the couple were no longer sure of what their future holds.

Arieva and Fursin have both signed up with the Territorial Defense Forces, a branch of Ukraine’s armed forces that is comprised mostly of volunteers. Once armed, the couple headed to the office of their political party, the European Solidarity.

“Right now, we are here and we are doing everything we can. So there is a lot of work to do, but still, I hope everything will be OK,” Arieva said, adding that some civilians who are not part of the defense force were also given rifles.

Kira Rudik (below), a member of Ukraine’s parliament, armed herself in preparation for the defense of Kyiv.

“I learn to use #Kalashnikov and prepare to bear arms,” Rudik tweets. “It sounds surreal as just a few days ago it would never come to my mind. Our #women will protect our soil the same way as our #men. Go #Ukraine!”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has surprised the world (and Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin) by becoming the leader no one thought the politically inexperienced former entertainer could be. He is personally leading the resistance to the Russian invasion while targeted for arrest or worse by Putin. He held firm against extortion threats from former American President Donald Trump. He’s carrying a Kalashnikov now in defiance of Putin’s invasion troops now.

Zelenskyy continues to tweet videos to demonstrate he is still in place and defiant. As of 2 a.m. this morning, MSNBC reports Kyiv has not fallen.

Associated Press:

KYIV, Ukraine — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was asked to evacuate Kyiv at the behest of the U.S. government but turned down the offer.

Zelenskyy said in response: “The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride,” according to a senior American intelligence official with direct knowledge of the conversation, who described Zelenskyy as upbeat.

Russian president Vladimir Putin has isolated himself on the world stage. Would-be ally China abstained in a U.N. Security Council vote condemning Russia (that Russia vetoed). “India and the United Arab Emirates also abstained, while Brazil, another ‘swing vote,’ joined the U.S.-led condemnation, Axios reports.

Ally Kazakhstan has denied Putin support, NBC News reports:

Kazakhstan, one of Russia’s closest allies and a southern neighbor, is denying a request for its troops to join the offensive in Ukraine, officials said Friday.

Additionally, the former Soviet republic said it is not recognizing the Russia-created breakaway republics upheld by Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, as a pretext for its aggression in Ukraine. 

If reports are accurate, bodies of perhaps hundreds of Russian paratroops will be heading home soon:

KYIV, Ukraine — A second Russian Ilyushin Il-76 military transport plane was shot down near Bila Tserkva, 50 miles (85 kilometers) south of Kyiv, according to two American officials with direct knowledge of conditions on the ground in Ukraine.

On Friday, Ukraine’s military said it had shot down a Russian military transport plane with paratroopers on board.

According to a statement from the military’s General Staff, the first Il-76 heavy transport plane was shot down near Vasylkiv, a city 25 miles south of Kyiv. The Russian military has not commented on either incident so far, and the reports could not be immediately verified.

The news is sure to intensify opposition to Putin’s invasion in Russia proper. Those protests continued Friday and could further erode both Putin’s position and lead to even more conflicting opinions about his mental state.

The ultimate outcome for Ukraine may not be in doubt. Ukraine is outgunned and outmanned. But whether what Putin gains in territory will offset the damage he suffers in international isolation and in Russian blood may not be known for some time.

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For The Win, 4th Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free, countywide get-out-the-vote planning guide for county committees at ForTheWin.us. This is what winning looks like.

Friday Night Soother

Here are some pet photo bombs:

I love him. (The dog, not The Man Called Petraeus.)

Here’s a classic:

https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1255888922045042690?s=20&t=P3HLSDUL_smu_igum9dHqg

It makes my day when the pets show up.

What America Thinks About Putin

This is some early polling on the Ukraine situation, starting last Sunday and ending on Thursday. Since that doesn’t include very much time since the invasion was launched on Wednesday, I wouldn’t place too much importance on this data. Nonetheless, it’s interesting to know where the country stood on the precipice of this war.

And, by the way, I don’t think most people hold the Russian people responsible for this, Putin is a dictator and this is on him:

On Biden personally, views revert to typical sharp partisanship, with independents — usually the fulcrum in national politics — siding negatively. Sixty-six percent of Democrats approve of Biden’s handling of the situation, dropping to 30% of independents and 8% of Republicans. Instead, 75% of Republicans and 54% of independents disapprove, compared with 13% of Democrats; the rest in each case are undecided.

I’m not sure what people think Biden could have done that would have prevented this? Sucked up to Putin like Trump did? I’m afraid that only works when Putin is dealing with a narcissistic moron. And such a relationship has diminishing return for America and the world.

Update — This clarifies that question a little bit:

Clean the dirty laundry

Paul Krugman discusses going after the oligarchs:

The United States and its allies aren’t going to intervene with their own forces against Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. I’ll leave it to others with relevant expertise to speculate about whether we’ll send more arms to the Ukrainian government or, if the Russian attack achieves quick success, help arm the Ukrainian resistance.

For the most part, however, the West’s response to Putin’s naked aggression will involve financial and economic sanctions. How effective can such sanctions be?

The answer is that they can be very effective, if the West shows the will — and is willing to take on its own corruption.

By conventional measures the Putin regime doesn’t look very vulnerable, at least in the short run.

True, Russia will eventually pay a heavy price. There won’t be any more pipeline deals; there will be hardly any foreign direct investment. After all, who will want to make long-term commitments to a country whose autocratic leadership has shown such reckless contempt for the rule of law? But these consequences of Putin’s aggression will take years to become visible.

And there seems to be only limited room for trade sanctions. For that, we can and should blame Europe, which does far more trade with Russia than America does.

The Europeans, unfortunately, have fecklessly allowed themselves to become highly dependent on imports of Russian natural gas. This means that if they were to attempt a full-scale cutoff of Russian exports they would impose soaring prices and shortages on themselves. Given sufficient provocation, they could still do it: Modern advanced economies can be incredibly resilient in times of need.

But even the invasion of Ukraine probably won’t be enough to persuade Europe to make those sorts of sacrifices. It’s telling, and not in a good way, that Italy wants luxury goods — a favorite purchase of the Russian elite — excluded from any sanctions package.

Financial sanctions, reducing Russia’s ability to raise and move money overseas, are more easily doable — indeed, on Thursday President Biden announced plans to crack down on Russian banks. But the effects will be limited unless Russia is excluded from SWIFT, the Belgium-based system for payments between banks. And a SWIFT exclusion might in practice mean a stop to Russian gas supplies, which brings us back to the problem of Europe’s self-inflicted vulnerability.

Yet the world’s advanced democracies have another powerful financial weapon against the Putin regime, if they’re willing to use it: They can go after the vast overseas wealth of the oligarchs who surround Putin and help him stay in power.

Everyone has heard about giant oligarch-owned yachts, sports franchises and incredibly expensive homes in multiple countries; there’s so much highly visible Russian money in Britain that some people talk about “Londongrad.” Well, these aren’t just isolated stories.

Filip Novokmet, Thomas Piketty and Gabriel Zucman have pointed out that Russia has run huge trade surpluses every year since the early 1990s, which should have led to a large accumulation of overseas assets. Yet official statistics show Russia with only moderately more assets than liabilities abroad. How is that possible? The obvious explanation is that wealthy Russians have been skimming off large sums and parking them abroad.

The sums involved are mind-boggling. Novokmet et al. estimate that in 2015 the hidden foreign wealth of rich Russians amounted to around 85 percent of Russia’s G.D.P. To give you some perspective, this is as if a U.S. president’s cronies had managed to hide $20 trillion in overseas accounts. Another paper co-written by Zucman found that in Russia, “the vast majority of wealth at the top is held offshore.” As far as I can tell, the overseas exposure of Russia’s elite has no precedent in history — and it creates a huge vulnerability that the West can exploit.

But can democratic governments go after these assets? Yes. As I read it, the legal basis is already there, for example in the Countering America’s Enemies Through Sanctions Act, and so is the technical ability. Indeed, Britain froze the assets of three prominent Putin cronies earlier this week, and it could give many others the same treatment.

So we have the means to put enormous financial pressure on the Putin regime (as opposed to the Russian economy). But do we have the will? That’s the trillion-ruble question.

There are two uncomfortable facts here. First, a number of influential people, both in business and in politics, are deeply financially enmeshed with Russian kleptocrats. This is especially true in Britain. Second, it will be hard to go after laundered Russian money without making life harder for all money launderers, wherever they come from — and while Russian plutocrats may be the world champions in that sport, they’re hardly unique: Ultrawealthy people all over the world have money hidden in offshore accounts.

What this means is that taking effective action against Putin’s greatest vulnerability will require facing up to and overcoming the West’s own corruption.

Can the democratic world rise to this challenge? We’ll find out over the next few months.

I don’t think there’s much choice in this unless the west makes the ridiculous calculation that letting autocrats get away with whatever they want is good for business. One would hope they aren’t that naive but you never know.

What we can expect

Michael Tomasky spoke with Russian expert Andrew Weiss today and it’s well worth taking a listen if you are concerned about the end game in Ukraine. Eeek:

This is a time when we definitely rely on what we used to call our “Russia hands” during the Cold War. They don’t come any smarter than Andrew Weiss, the James Family chair and vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he oversees research on Russia and Eurasia. He is also the Library of Congress chair in U.S.-Russia relations. Among other government posts at the National Security Council and the State Department, he’s served under the administrations of Presidents Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush. Weiss has spent considerable time in both Russia and Ukraine and is widely acknowledged as one of the leading Russia commentators in the United States.

Speaking with TNR editor Michael Tomasky late Friday morning, Weiss didn’t mince  words about Putin’s aims in the rapidly evolving—and dire—situation in Ukraine. Putin will not be content, Weiss says, to settle for annexing a few autonomous states in the Donbas. Rather, he asserts, Putin’s aim is clear, and has been so for a long time to those who study the region and have paid attention to the Russian president’s  rhetoric: He wants to destroy an independent Ukraine. Weiss thinks Biden’s proposed sanctions will have real bite and will “have spectacular effects.” At the same time, Putin “is loaded with cash”—some $650 billion in oil reserves. What Putin’s doing could portend  a “horrible crisis” that will consume the Biden administration and other Western governments for years. 

Like I said — eek.

An unlikely hero

I knew Zelensky had guts because he stood up to Donald Trump when he attempted to blackmail Ukraine into sabotaging Joe Biden’s campaign for him. But this is something else again.

Apparently, President Zelensky told the heads of the European Union on the phone last night that it may be the last time they see him alive. I can’t imagine that kind of responsibility — and fear.

Josh Marshall wrote a twitter thread about him that I thought was quite compelling:

There must have been many moments over the last few weeks when Zelensky said to himself, “How the fuck did I get here?” As most of you know, Zelensky was a comedian and actor. Sort of a lark candidacy. I believe he actually owed a lot of his fame to a show in which he played a President of Ukraine. Not certain I remember that right but I think so. It seems almost unimaginable that he could have had any idea it would come to quite this.

And yet now he’s in a position in which he will either preside over the dissolution of the independent Ukrainian state or, if things go very differently, probably be regarded as something like a founding father of it.

Through the last few weeks I’ve heard lots of commentary from public sources or just region experts in convo saying the guy is just hopelessly in over his head. And I don’t know enough about the precise negotiations or internal Ukrainian state stuff to know whether that’s true or not. But history often lives or dies in key, clutch moments. And I must say the recent speeches barreling into war … they’ve shown a moral courage that is very hard to second guess. And let’s be frank, there’s something between a non-trivial and very good likelihood he will not physically survive this conflict.

And yet, there he is. Not running. It’s hard not to compare it – though the facts are very very different to the last President of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani, who got the fuck outta dodge at the first hint things were going south. Very very few of us will ever face a situation with such a combination of historic consequence and physical danger.

But many of us face moments where we must choose to face fear and live out our promises or run. And you have to say this guy is really passing that test. And though the resistance we’re seeing is definitely one that involves millions of Ukrainians I have to imagine that a rapid collapse or evacuation of state or its leadership would have been a gut punch to the morale we’re seeing standing in defiance today.

Originally tweeted by Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) on February 25, 2022.

Vladimir Putin calls him a Nazi. He is Jewish.

He is a brave leader.