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Month: March 2022

Bill Barr’s new book: a study in Fox News Brain Rot

t the end of 2020 I thought I had written my last piece about former attorney general William Barr. I had followed his two-year tenure very closely and wrote about it often, always dismayed by what was obviously a very arrogant man who was suffering from a terminal case of Fox News Brain Rot. He would have been more to be pitied than censured if it weren’t for the fact that he was running interference for the most powerful man in the country. Now Barr has published the obligatory tell-all about his time in the Trump administration, called “One Damn Thing After Another,” and I am compelled to write about him one more time.

Barr’s overweening egotism, so flamboyantly displayed in his new book and accompanying promotional appearances, is second only to Donald Trump himself. He has said repeatedly on his book tour that he doesn’t care what people think of him and I believe him. After all, when you think as highly of yourself as he does, approbation from others is totally unnecessary.

His book discusses his happy life growing up in New York City in a conservative family and attending Columbia University before briefly joining the CIA while in law school at night. He eventually joined the Department of Justice and was named George H. W Bush’s Attorney General at the young age of 41. He is mostly remembered in that assignment for pushing the president to pardon the parties involved in the Iran Contra scandal — which Bush did on Christmas Eve 1999, eerily foreshadowing what was to come 30 years later.

He spent the next couple of decades cashing in handsomely, as so many do, and obviously spent a lot of time immersed in right-wing media which nurtured his cultural grievances. By the time Donald Trump became president, Barr was spouting off about Hillary Clinton and “Uranium One” and writing letters to the White House expressing his dismay that the Democrats and the Deep State were in cahoots to destroy the president with the Russiagate investigation. Of course, Barr is too sophisticated to let the cat out of the bag by publicly using those catchphrases but it’s clear nonetheless that he is a true believer of the Lou Dobbs/Sean Hannity variety.

In his book, Barr rails against everything and everyone to the left of Ted Cruz, writing that Barack Obama is a “left-wing agitator [who] throttled the economy, degraded the culture and frittered away U.S. strength and credibility in foreign affairs” and claims that Critical Race Theory is “at bottom, essentially the materialist philosophy of Marxism, substituting racial antagonism for class antagonism.” He carries on about left-wing “Maoism” and “militant secularism” declaring that there is a “mounting effort to affirmatively indoctrinate children with the secular progressive belief system — a new official secular ideology.” He knows who the enemy is, righteously proclaiming that he is “under no illusion about who is responsible for dividing the country, embittering our politics and weakening and demoralizing our nation — it is the progressive left and their increasingly totalitarian ideals.”

You might wonder why a man with such staunch views about morality and secularism would eagerly seek out a libertine TV star with five kids by three different wives but to Bill Barr, the country was careening toward a constitutional crisis by trying to restrain President Trump from doing anything he damn well pleased. Barr, you see, believes in the near infallibility of the executive branch and Trump believes in the infallibility of Trump so it made a lot of sense for them to join forces.

Barr goes to incredible lengths to excuse Trump’s crude and ignorant behavior as president portraying him as a sort of unruly teenager whose “madcap rhetoric” and “imprecise comments” would get him into scrapes. Sure, he has an “imprecise and discursive speaking style” which includes “flights of gross hyperbole” but he’s really an entertainer and everyone knew his words weren’t meant to be taken literally. (He even approvingly quotes that fatuous Salena Zito quote that “the press takes him literally but not seriously and the people take him seriously but not literally” in the same breath.) This is bizarre coming from the man who takes himself and his politics as seriously as an undertaker.

Barr adamantly denies that he served more as Trump’s personal lawyer than as the independent Attorney General but gives the game away when he repeats something he told Trump during the famous meeting in which he said all the vote fraud claims were “bullshit.” He writes that he told Trump, “‘No, Mr. President, I don’t hate you,’ I said. ‘You know I sacrificed a lot personally to come in to help you when I thought you were being wronged.'”

Of course, it was obvious from the beginning that he saw his mission to protect Trump from the alleged depredations of the “swamp” that was out to get him. His mischaracterization of the Mueller report and eagerness to launch Trump’s “investigate the investigators” vendetta. He overruled the Justice Department prosecutors to recommend a lighter sentence and dropped the charges against Trump’s loony former National Security adviser Michael Flynn even after he had pleaded guilty. He claims that he was simply ensuring that the department was meting out equal justice but strangely, those were the only two people he found in the whole country who deserved that intervention.

Barr claims that Trump did a terrific job as president, “pursuing sound, conservative policies” up until the election at which point he seems to have abruptly turned into some kind of unrecognizable Mr. Hyde, who “cared only about one thing: himself. Country and principle took second place.” Barr goes on to write that “after the election he was beyond restraint. He would only listen to a few sycophants who told him what he wanted to hear. Reasoning with him was hopeless.”

It’s remotely possible that Barr did not remember that Trump had said back in 2016 that he would only accept the results of the election if he won? But he knows very well that Trump was telegraphing his plan to contest the election in 2020 if he did not win — he was helping him set it up. He personally cast doubts on the mail-in ballots, inanely suggesting that they were subject to foreign interference. Trump had been hedging his bets for months, suggesting it was rigged long before any votes were cast.

It’s tempting to see this book as Barr’s attempt at redemption but it really doesn’t come off that way. Barr truly believes he has had a stellar career, topped off by his exemplary service to the nation as the Attorney General who acted with integrity when the president suffered a breakdown and refused to accept his loss. He describes Trump at that moment as “out of touch with reality.” I would suggest Trump isn’t the only one.

Salon

Thank God it’s not Trump in the White House

Presidents face crises that lie beyond their control. Ask George W. Bush about September 11, 2001 or Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Their legacies are defined by how they respond to them. President Joe Biden is handling the Russian invasion of Ukraine deftly, argues Franklin Foer in The Atlantic. A Hillary Clinton attack ad from 2008 proposed a 3 a.m. call to the White House to suggest Barack Obama was dangerously underqualified to be president. Biden actually took that call and responded skillfully to a Ukraine crisis that could easily escalate into nuclear war:

Joe Biden hasn’t received the full credit he deserves for his statecraft during this crisis, because he has pursued a policy of self-effacement. Rather than touting his accomplishments in mobilizing a unified global response to the invasion, he has portrayed the stringent sanctions as the triumph of an alliance. By carefully limiting his own public role—and letting France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz take turns as the lead faces of NATO—he has left Vladimir Putin with little opportunity to portray the conflict as a standoff with the United States, a narrative that the Russian leader would clearly prefer. He’s shown how to wield American leadership in the face of deep European ambivalence about its exercise.

His handling of the domestic politics of the crisis has been just as savvy. Although he could justifiably have portrayed Republicans as the party of Putin apologists, he refrained from dinging his political enemies. During his State of the Union address, he actively encouraged Republicans to feel as if they were his partners in a popular front.

This is surely redolent of the bipartisan foreign policy that Biden nostalgically yearns to revive.  But it’s also an important tactic. By depoliticizing the issue, he has made it likely that Congress will quickly fund aid and arms for the Ukrainian military. And as gas prices spike, it will be rhetorically harder for Republicans to effectively pin the blame on him, because they have been fully supportive of sanctions.

Hardly. Republicans and their News Corp. propaganda arm will try.

Would Republicans support cutting off Russian oil imports then turn around and blame Biden for higher gas prices? Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy responded with sarcasm, writes Slate’s Jim Newell:

“Of course Republicans are going to savage Democrats for an increase in gas prices, and will not reference their support for a Russian oil embargo at all,” Murphy, stepping down from the sarcasm, went on. “We just need to be ready for that, that Republicans are not going to play this straight.”

Facebook mem from assembled 2008 gas prices. Yahoo News reminds readers that, adjusted for inflation, “gas prices would have to hit $5.25 per gallon to be a new record high, in real terms.” Not that Republicans deal in real terms.

Biden has played his role less reflexively, writes Foer, avoiding bluster and refusing to match Putin’s putting his nuclear arsenal on “special combat readiness.” Biden has rebuffed calls for establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine that would allow Putin to argue he and Russia are U.S. targets. Not to mention sparking WWIII.

After Afghanistan revealed a failure to imagine the worst-case scenario, Biden’s response to Russia’s war has been marked by its creativity. In advance of the invasion, the administration surreptitiously hastened its shipments of arms to Ukraine, bestowing on it an armament well suited to the eventuality of urban combat. By preparing a suite of unconventional sanctions long before Putin’s troops crossed the border, the administration avoided the need to cobble together policy and the scramble to inform allies of its plans. The legwork was already done. Most impressively, it broadcast its intelligence about Russia to the world in anticipation of an invasion. (Having a veteran diplomat as CIA chief helps.) Because its assessment of Russian intentions proved to be painfully accurate, the maneuver has helped reclaim the lost trust of allies and the global public.

“In the middle of Joe Biden’s 3 a.m. call, I find myself grateful that he’s the one answering the phone,” Foer concludes. Perhaps he had the former president in mind in writing that.

The United States “should label its F-22 planes with the Chinese flag and ‘bomb the s–t out of Russia.’” former president Donald Trump told top GOP donors on Saturday. “And then we say, China did it, we didn’t do it, China did it, and then they start fighting with each other and we sit back and watch.”

Yeah, we might have had that guy in the White House. It’s enough to send cold chills down your spine.

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“apocalyptic”

The damage in Yaroslava Kaminska’s home village. (Yaroslava Kaminska via CNN)

News from Ukraine is as chaotic as reported conditions there.

The Chernobyl nuclear plant site has been knocked off the power grid; its cooling systems are operating on backup power.

CNN reports that Ukraine “has agreed to a 12-hour ceasefire with Russia on Wednesday to allow civilians to escape through humanitarian corridors.” That is, if the agreement holds.

A surprise Polish proposal to transfer 28 MiG-29 fighter planes to the U.S. for transfer to Ukraine has been dismissed by the U.S. as not “tenable.”

“Conditions in the port of Mariupol have been described as ‘apocalyptic,’” reports The Guardian, “where hundreds of thousands of residents have been sheltering from brutal Russian shelling and missile attacks for more than a week without water, power or heating. Phone signals are also down.”

Yaroslava Kaminska, her husband and grandparents from the village of Nemishayevo outside Kyiv have been sheltering in their home to avoid shelling and snipers. They were “naive idiots” to believe Russian troops would not come there, and have lacked water, electricity and heat since Feb. 28. “This is not war; this is extermination,” she said.

Ukraine continues to release videos created to display determination to resist occupation and to inspire support.

From all of his time reporting from war zones, CNN’s Anderson Cooper in Lviv told Stephen Colbert on Monday, “I’ve never seen a country as determined and unified.”

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told ABC News he is prepared to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and neighboring states over security guarantees for Ukraine and the future of Crimea and Donbas. But he condemned Russian talk of “denazification” as no more than a goal to wipe Ukraine from the map.

The wounded and dead remain undercounted.

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The zealots will never stop

It’s International Women’s Day and to celebrate the event a Missouri state Rep. has introduced a Texas vigilante law to stop women from going across state lines to obtain an abortion. I’m not kidding:

The pattern emerges whenever a Republican-led state imposes new restrictions on abortion: People seeking the procedure cross state lines to find treatment in places with less-restrictive laws.

Now, a prominent antiabortion lawmaker in Missouri, from where thousands of residents have traveled to next-door Illinois to receive abortions since Missouri passed one of the country’s strictest abortion laws in 2019, believes she has found a solution.

An unusual new provision, introduced by state Rep. Mary Elizabeth Coleman (R), would allow private citizens to sue anyone who helps a Missouri resident obtain an abortion out of state, using the novel legal strategy behind the restrictive law in Texas that since September has banned abortions in that state after six weeks of pregnancy.

Coleman has attached the measure as an amendment to several abortion-related bills that have made it through committee and are waiting to be heard on the floor of the House of Representatives.

Abortion rights advocates say the measure is unconstitutional because it would effectively allow states to enact laws beyond their jurisdictions, but the Republican-led Missouri legislature has been supportive of creative approaches to antiabortion legislation in the past. The measure could signal a new strategy by the antiabortion movement to extend its influence beyond the conservative states poised to tighten restrictions if the Supreme Court moves this summer to overturn its landmark precedent protecting abortion rights.

“If your neighboring state doesn’t have pro-life protections, it minimizes the ability to protect the unborn in your state,” said Coleman, who said she’s been trying to figure out how to crack down on out-of-state abortions since Planned Parenthood opened an abortion clinic on the Illinois-Missouri border in 2019.[…]

Coleman said she hopes her amendment will thwart efforts by Missourians to cross state lines for abortions. The measure would target anyone even tangentially involved in an abortion performed on a Missouri resident, including the hotline staffers who make the appointments, the marketing representatives who advertise out-of-state clinics, and the Illinois and Kansas-based doctors who handle the procedure. Her amendment also would make it illegal to manufacture, transport, possess or distribute abortion pills in Missouri.

If the Supreme Court upholds the Texas law, you can bet we’ll see this in red states all over the country. This vigilante gambit has opened up Pandoras Box and we just have to hope the Supremes will shut it down. I am not optimistic.

PSA: more free COVID tests

It doesn’t seem as if this is being well publicized so I thought I’d pass it along:

People in the U.S. can now order up to four additional free, at-home rapid COVID-19 tests from the government. The Biden administration announced the program to provide people in the U.S. with free COVID-19 tests in December amid the Omicron surge, and the first batch of tests started going out to people in January.

 “Starting this week, every home in the U.S. will be able to order an additional set of 4 tests,” an update to the website’s frequently asked questions page states.

  • The U.S. Postal Service announced last week that it has delivered 68 million free COVID-19 test kit packages — with 4 tests per package — since the tests began being shipped out in January.

I ordered mine and it was just as easy as the first time. It’s not a bad idea to have these in stock. We just don’t know when we’re going to need them.

Yes, they are very useful

After 9/11 a Colorado professor named Ward Churchill was ritually sacrificed for saying that the “chickens came home to roost” and suggesting that people who worked in the World Trade Center were accomplices in the West’s capitalist crimes against the rest of the world. It was written as a cheap shot, although a serious critique, but the timing was very bad and in that environment it was deemed to be tantamount to treason by Republicans and tut-tutted by most Democrats as well.

Now look at this:

https://twitter.com/katestarbird/status/1501042101764509698

Imagine if Chris Hayes had Ward Churchill talking about the “Little Eichmans” who worked in the WTC on his show in the days after 9/11 and Al Qaeda was broadcasting it all over Al Jazeera. I think we can imagine the response from Tucker Carlson and his cohort, can’t we? Aaron Mate is a voice of the left, so he is consistent in his criticism of the US although excusing Vladimir Putin’s unilateral invasion and merciless bombing of civilian populations certainly isn’t consistent with any anti-war position I’m familiar with.

It’s always fair to criticize American policy and Tucker is free to spread whatever unmoored from reality conspiracy theories he likes as long as the platform he’s on allows it. But the shamelessness of this faux earnest “just asking questions” schtick that Carlson does is more than I can take.

Of course, Donald Trump commonly says the US is the stupidest nation on earth and his flag-wearing so-called cult of patriots cheers him like he’s Uncle Sam himself. So consistency isn’t their strong suit.

Krugman on what’s coming

When Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, I think it’s fair to say that most observers expected him to get away with it. Surely Russia’s huge military would take Kyiv and other major cities within a few days; surely the West would respond with its usual timidity, giving Russia no more than a minor slap on the wrist.

Instead, here we are, 13 days in, with Kyiv and Kharkiv still standing and invading forces bogged down by fierce Ukrainian resistance (helped by a rapid influx of Western weapons) and disastrous logistical problems. At the same time, Western sanctions on the Russian economy are clearly already having severe effects and may get even stronger.

Obviously all this could change: Russian forces could regroup and resume the offensive, weak-kneed Western governments could start lifting sanctions. For now, however, Putin is facing far worse consequences than he could have imagined.

Unfortunately, standing up to aggression doesn’t come free. Events in Ukraine and Russia will, in particular, impose serious costs on the world economy. The question is, how serious?

My tentative answer is that it will be bad, but not catastrophic. Specifically, the Putin shock seems unlikely to be nearly as bad as the oil shocks that roiled the world economy in the 1970s.

As in the 1970s, the blow to the world economy is coming from commodity prices. Russia is a major exporter of oil and natural gas; both Russia and Ukraine are — or were — major exporters of wheat. So the war is having a big impact on both energy and food prices.

Start with energy. So far, the sanctions being applied by Europe against Russia conspicuously don’t apply to oil and gas exports; the United States is banning oil imports from Russia, but this won’t matter that much, because America can buy and Russia can sell elsewhere. Markets are nonetheless reacting as if supplies are going to be disrupted, either by future sanctions or because global energy companies, fearing a public backlash, are “self-sanctioning” their purchases of Russian crude. Indeed, Shell, which bought Russian oil at a discount the other day, has apologized and says it won’t do it again.

As a result, the real, inflation-adjusted price of oil has shot up almost to the level it hit during the Iranian revolution in 1979:

Oil prices in 2022 dollars.FRED, Bloomberg

To be honest, I’m a bit puzzled by the size of this price spike. Yes, Russia is a major oil producer. But it accounts for only about 11 percent of world production, whereas Persian Gulf producers extracted a third of the world’s oil back in the 1970s:

Russia isn’t the Persian Gulf.Our World in Data

And Russia will probably find ways to sell a significant fraction of its oil despite Western sanctions.

Furthermore, the world economy is much less dependent on oil than it used to be. Oil “intensity” — the number of barrels of oil consumed per real dollar of gross domestic product — is half what it was in the 1970s:

Oil consumption isn’t what it used to be.Columbis Center on Global Energy Policy

What about natural gas? Europe depends on Russia for a lot of its supply. But gas consumption is strongly seasonal:

Winter is coming — but not for quite a while.European Commission

So the impact of Russian disruption won’t be that big until late this year, giving Europe time to take measures to make itself less vulnerable.

Overall, then, the Putin-made energy crisis will be serious but probably not catastrophic. My biggest concern for the United States, at least, is political. You mightn’t think that Republicans could simultaneously demand that we stop buying Russian oil and attack President Biden for high gasoline prices. That is, you mightn’t think that if you’d spent the past 25 years sleeping in a cave. In fact, that’s exactly what’s about to happen.

Politics aside, food may actually be a bigger issue than energy. Before Putin’s war, Russia and Ukraine combined accounted for more than a quarter of the world’s wheat exports. Now Russia is sanctioned and Ukraine is a war zone. Not surprisingly, wheat prices have shot up from less than $800 a bushel before Russia began massing its forces around Ukraine to around $1,300 now.

In wealthy regions like North America and Europe, this price surge will be painful but for the most part tolerable, simply because advanced-country consumers spend a relatively small percentage of their income on food. For poorer nations, where food is a huge fraction of family budgets, the shock will be much more severe.

Finally, what impact will the Ukraine war have on economic policy? Spiking oil and food prices will raise the rate of inflation, which is already uncomfortably high. Will the Federal Reserve respond by raising interest rates, hitting economic growth?

Probably not. The Fed has long focused not on “headline” inflation but on “core” inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices — a focus that has stood it in good stead in the past. So the Putin shock is exactly the kind of event that the Fed would normally ignore. And for what it’s worth, investors appear to believe that it will do just that: Market expectations of Fed policy over the next few months don’t seem to have changed at all.

Overall, the Russian shock to the world economy will be nasty, but probably not all that nasty. If Putin imagines that he can hold the world to ransom, well, that’s probably yet another fatal miscalculation.

Nuclear War for dummies

I know you don’t want to hear this but you need to. I know I needed to hear it, just as a reminder of how dangerous this moment is — and that the fact we have these weapons at all is insane. This is from the Lancet:

On Feb 27, 2022, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian nuclear forces to be placed on “the special regime of combat duty”. This decision increased the alert status of Russian nuclear forces from a peacetime status to a pre-combat status, creating the legal conditions for any further instruction to launch missiles.

Presumably Putin’s move is intended to create fear and uncertainty, intensify pressure on Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies and partners, reduce resistance to Russian attacks in Ukraine, and extract concessions in negotiations. But these threats represent an absolutely unacceptable escalation of his invasion of Ukraine.

The threat of nuclear weapons ratchets up tensions and increases the anxiety and stress that every soldier, resistance fighter, civilian, and politician is experiencing. This threat is also likely to affect analysis and decision making by all parties to the conflict in regard to the potentially far-reaching impacts of decisions. Indeed, history has shown us the risks that these types of situations can pose.

Since the 1960s the assumption by nuclear armed states was that the prospect of mutually assured destruction would guarantee that nuclear weapons are never used. Nuclear war was believed to be so catastrophic that no leader would ever dare use their nuclear arsenals. More recently, in January, 2022, all the nuclear weapons states that are signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (China, France, Russia, the USA, and the UK) reiterated the Reagan–Gorbachev statement that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”. 

Nonetheless, documentary research and testimonies have revealed occasions during the decades after the Cuban missile crisis when nuclear weapons were very nearly used as a result of misperceptions and misinterpretation of signals. In 1983, for example, the NATO Able Archer military exercise increased the fear level in the Soviet Union to such an extent that Russian nuclear forces were mobilised. Also in 1983, satellite signals that appeared to be incoming nuclear missiles from the USA to the Soviet Union nearly led to a launch-on-warning response from Moscow. The decision not to do so rested largely on the decisions of one individual, lieutenant colonel Stanislav Petrov 

Even after the end of the Cold War, when tensions were low, a Norwegian rocket was initially feared to be an incoming nuclear weapons attack in Russia. In the case of nuclear weapons, such mistakes, if they lead to inadvertent use, can never be small or put right. Any use of so-called tactical nuclear weapons (in the low kiloton range) in battle situations would also risk rapid escalation to large-scale nuclear war.

The overwhelming humanitarian catastrophic impact of a nuclear weapon is too great to allow these weapons into stressful conflict situations in which such mistakes will occur. Humanity has not avoided nuclear war thus far because of wise leaders, sound military doctrine, or infallible technology. As former US Defense Secretary Robert McNamara observed: “We lucked out. It was luck that prevented nuclear war.”

An estimated 200 000 people died within 5 months of the nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan, in 1945 and many survivors suffered long-term effects, including increased risk of leukaemia, other types of cancer, and effects on mental health. The world’s nuclear armed states currently have a combined arsenal of around 12 700 nuclear weapons.

According to the Federation of American Scientists, the USA deploys 1644 and Russia deploys 1588 strategic warheads on bombers and missiles, many with an explosive power of 100 kilotons or more. Both countries are modernising their nuclear delivery systems.

If a single warhead of 100 kilotons exploded over a major city it would kill hundreds of thousands of people outright and injure many more, overwhelming the health-care system of an entire nation.

 Even a small-scale nuclear war, involving 250 of the deployed nuclear weapons in the NATO and Russian arsenals, or as might take place between India and Pakistan, would be expected to result in sufficient dust and smoke blocking solar radiation to cause major climate disruption that would trigger a global famine, putting billions of people at risk and destroying modern civilisation. 

A large-scale nuclear war would create a nuclear winter, with temperatures falling an average of about 10°C across the globe, and could kill most of humanity over 10 years.

Those of us of a certain age are well aware of all this. We grew up with it. But in recent years this knowledge has receded into an abstraction for many people, particularly young people. But it’s back.

It’s hard to believe that humankind failed to deal with this insane threat over the last 70 years but we didn’t. And here we are.

How many deaths can we tolerate?

Ed Yong asks the big question: why are we so blase about the nearly million COVID deaths?

The united states reported more deaths from COVID-19 last Friday than deaths from Hurricane Katrina, more on any two recent weekdays than deaths during the 9/11 terrorist attacks, more last month than deaths from flu in a bad season, and more in two years than deaths from HIV during the four decades of the AIDS epidemic. At least 953,000 Americans have died from COVID, and the true toll is likely even higher because many deaths went uncounted. COVID is now the third leading cause of death in the U.S., after only heart disease and cancer, which are both catchall terms for many distinct diseases. The sheer scale of the tragedy strains the moral imagination. On May 24, 2020, as the United States passed 100,000 recorded deaths, The New York Times filled its front page with the names of the dead, describing their loss as “incalculable.” Now the nation hurtles toward a milestone of 1 million. What is 10 times incalculable?

Many countries have been pummeled by the coronavirus, but few have fared as poorly as the U.S. Its death rate surpassed that of any other large, wealthy nation—especially during the recent Omicron surge. The Biden administration placed all its bets on a vaccine-focused strategy, rather than the multilayered protections that many experts called for, even as America lagged behind other wealthy countries in vaccinating (and boosting) its citizens—especially elderly people, who are most vulnerable to the virus. In a study of 29 high-income countries, the U.S. experienced the largest decline in life expectancy in 2020 and, unlike much of Europe, did not bounce back in 2021. It was also the only country whose lowered life span was driven mainly by deaths among people under 60. Dying from COVID robbed each American of, on average, nine years of life at the lowest end of estimates and 17 at the highest. As a whole, U.S. life expectancy fell by two years—the largest such decline in almost a century. Neither World War II nor any of the flu pandemics that followed it dented American longevity so badly.

Every American who died of COVID left an average of nine close relatives bereaved. Roughly 9 million people—3 percent of the population—now have a permanent hole in their world that was once filled by a parent, child, sibling, spouse, or grandparent. An estimated 149,000 children have lost a parent or caregiver. Many people were denied the familiar rituals of mourning—bedside goodbyes, in-person funerals. Others are grieving raw and recent losses, their grief trampled amid the stampede toward normal. “I’ve known multiple people who didn’t get to bury their parents or be with their families, and now are expected to go back to the grind of work,” says Steven Thrasher, a journalist and the author of The Viral Underclass, which looks at the interplay between inequalities and infectious diseases. “We’re not giving people the space individually or societally to mourn this huge thing that’s happened.”

After many of the biggest disasters in American memory, including 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina, “it felt like the world stopped,” Lori Peek, a sociologist at the University of Colorado at Boulder who studies disasters, told me. “On some level, we owned our failures, and there were real changes.” Crossing 1 million deaths could offer a similar opportunity to take stock, but “900,000 deaths felt like a big threshold to me, and we didn’t pause,” Peek said. Why is that? Why were so many publications and politicians focused on reopenings in January and February—the fourth- and fifth-deadliest months of the pandemic? Why did the CDC issue new guidelines that allowed most Americans to dispense with indoor masking when at least 1,000 people had been dying of COVID every day for almost six straight months? If the U.S. faced half a year of daily hurricanes that each took 1,000 lives, it is hard to imagine that the nation would decide to, quite literally, throw caution to the wind. Why, then, is COVID different?

I highly recommend you read the whole thing. He points to the inequities in our system and the fact that old people and marginalized populations are more likely to get the virus and die from it as one reason, which is surely correct. He also suggests that individualism is at fault which I think may be a primary reason that explains the right’s inexplicable decision to let ‘er rip in their own lives and the lives of those around them. He quotes a medical historian who says, “Like gun violence, overdose, extreme heat death, heart disease, and smoking, [COVID] becomes increasingly associated with behavioral choice and individual responsibility, and therefore increasingly invisible.”

That’s depressing. But I have to admit that I’ve come to see this as an every man for himself kind of a problem, out of necessity. I’m happy to wear a mask or do other things to keep the community safe, but we have millions of our fellow Americans who are not willing to do the same for me. It’s a problem.

He goes on to discuss what we should be doing now, to both think about what we really are prepared to tolerate and build a better system for the next time. I highly recommend reading it. It’s bracing.

Update — Brian Buetler wrote this on twitter and I agree completely:

The only thing I’d add to this: there’s a fatalism about COVID that spans both parties, but works in different ways within each.

Among Republicans it’s an affected mechanism to cope with Trump’s atrocious abdication when first confronted with the virus. Doing more meant implying Trump hadn’t done enough, which meant crossing Trump, which meant pretending to believe this was the best we could do.

Among Dems it’s a sense that collective action is hopeless, the public will reject mitigation, the right is hopelessly ungovernable. I’m sympathetic to the institutional constraints and sabotage they’ve faced, but see little evidence internationally for the general proposition.

Which democratic governing party that handled COVID better than we did is more politically endangered because of it?

Even within the U.S., we saw at the outset an incredible level of solidarity spring up almost unbidden. Trump wrecked it because his mind is fully corrupted and he couldn’t imagine anyone responding selflessly in a crisis.

He assumed asking for collective sacrifice would blow back on him, and he was only interested in him. But I think he was just wrong; in fact I think he’d be president today if he’d done the patriotic thing, instead of lying and polarizing the country around pandemic disease.

To be sure, he shat the entire bed (can’t only do that partially) and restoring solidarity after he was gone was going to be very hard. After a few months of trying Dems deemed the challenge impossible and moved on to current policy.

The alternative would’ve entailed mobilizing the anti-COVID supermajority against the GOP (remember that one weird week when Republicans got scared of polls showing they’d grown too close to anti-vaxxers?), countering demagoguery with demagoguery, and they just wouldn’t do that.

Obviously can’t say for sure if it would’ve worked, but it was worth trying in a concerted way.

Originally tweeted by Brian Beutler (@brianbeutler) on March 8, 2022.

It illustrates much of the political dynamic in general doesn’t it?

Just for fun

An online friend posted this mask advice above yesterday. Thought I’d share.

I suppose my preferred response is:

If the gummint can’t make me wear one, you sure as hell can’t tell me not to.

That “freedom” enough for you?

Yes, mask harrassment is still happening:

Woman who allegedly attacked McCully store clerk over masking arrested at Honolulu airport

Anti-masker involved in school board meeting fight charged with assault

And of course the wannabe next president of the United States:

Fla. Gov. Ron DeSantis upbraids students for wearing masks, calling it ‘covid theater’

Don’t you have a truck rally to be at?

(h/t SB)

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