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Month: April 2022

A whole lot of Americans blame America for Ukraine

Turkey and China stand alone blaming us more than we blame ourselves

I’m not an apologist for American imperialist adventures. In fact, I think the war in Iraq serves as a template in the post-cold war world for this sort of thing and said so at the time. (You can read it all right here on this blog.) But this particular war with Ukraine is simply not America’s fault, even when you look at it from 30,000 feet. Russia opportunistically decided to seize land that doesn’t belong to it, using a spurious pretext, and in the end validated every one of their neighbors’ fears that it will do the same to them, thus ironically strengthening NATO as a defensive alliance.

This war is unconscionable and the blame for it lies solely at the feet of the perpetrator: Russia. Americans who think otherwise, whether based on ideology or propaganda, are wrong.

Too busy to diet

Lol

At an event this week, Mr Trump spoke to an indoor venue and noted that Dr Oz had urged him to lose weight in order to enjoy a healthy lifestyle.

‘Can you believe I weigh 208?’ Trump said. ‘Now maybe a little more’.

“Dr Oz has said you should lose weight. I told him, ‘I don’t have time to lose weight.’’

It wasn’t clear exactly where Mr Trump was speaking, but the event apparently took place some time after Mr Trump’s rally in North Carolina on Saturday at which he made his endorsement official.

The clip is the latest example of Mr Trump mentioning his past interview with Dr Oz on the latter’s show and hinting that the celebrity TV doctor’s praise of his personal health choices carried weight when it came time to make his endorsement.

I’m sure it was decisive.

Republicans in disarray

The Michigan GOP splits over Trump

I assume that all the GOP faithful will vote for Trump if he’s the nominee. But I have to say that these stories are giving me some slight hope that the party may not allow the craziest of crazies to win all the important offices:

The shouting in the banquet hall erupted just minutes after the Macomb County Republican Party convention was called to order.

In a room packed with about 500 people, Mark Forton, the county party chairman and a fierce ally of former President Donald J. Trump, began railing against the establishment Republicans in the audience. A plan was afoot to oust him and his executive team, he said.

“They’re going to make an overthrow of the party, and you have a right to know what this county party has done in the last three years,” he said as his supporters booed and hollered and opponents pelted him with objections. Republicans in suits and cardigans on one side of the room shouted at die-hard Trump supporters in MAGA hats and Trump gear on the other.

The night ended as Mr. Forton had predicted, with a 158-123 vote that removed him and his leadership team from their posts.

The raucous scene in Macomb County exploded after months of infighting that roiled the Michigan Republican Party, pitting Trump loyalists like Mr. Forton, who continue to promote Mr. Trump’s lies about a stolen 2020 presidential election, against a cohort of Republicans who are eager to move on. The splintering threatens to upend the upcoming Republican state convention, where county precinct chairs vote on nominees for secretary of state, attorney general and other statewide offices.

Mr. Trump is all in on trying to sway those contests — and other races across the state, which he lost by 150,000 votes in 2020. The former president has endorsed 10 candidates for the State Legislature, including three who are challenging Republican incumbents, and has already picked his favorite candidate for speaker of the State House next year. Mr. Trump also has made numerous personal entreaties to shore up support for Matthew DePerno, who is running for attorney general, and Kristina Karamo, a candidate for secretary of state.

In Michigan and other battleground states, Mr. Trump’s chosen candidates have become megaphones for his election claims — frustrating some Republicans who view a preoccupation with the 2020 election as a losing message in 2022.

Republicans in Wisconsin and Arizona have encountered similar fractures over support for continued investigations into the 2020 election, and Mr. Trump’s attempts to play kingmaker in the Ohio Senate race is splintering Republicans there as well.

The root of the rupture in Michigan can, in part, be traced to endorsements made by Meshawn Maddock, a co-chair of the Michigan Republican Party and a Trump confidante. The Republican Party leadership has traditionally stayed out of statewide races, especially before the state convention. But Ms. Maddock endorsed Ms. Karamo and Mr. DePerno.

Both candidates have been vocal supporters of Mr. Trump’s falsehoods about the 2020 election. Mr. DePerno was one of the lawyers involved in Republican challenges in Antrim County, Mich., where a quickly corrected human error on election night spawned a barrage of conspiracy theories. Ms. Karamo belongs to a slate of “America First” secretary of state candidates running across the country and campaigning, in part, on distorted views of the 2020 election.

Beyond her endorsements, Ms. Maddock has been working to help prepare convention delegates. Last month, Ms. Maddock attended a mock convention held by the Michigan Conservative Coalition and reiterated glowing praise from Mr. Trump for Ms. Karamo, Mr. DePerno and John Gibbs, the conservative challenger to Representative Peter Meijer, a Republican congressman who voted to impeach Mr. Trump over the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.

“He was so fired up about Michigan,” Ms. Maddock said of conversations with Mr. Trump as she spoke during a question-and-answer session at the mock convention, according to audio of the event obtained by The New York Times. “This man cannot stop talking about Matt DePerno, Kristina Karamo, John Gibbs, who’s running against Peter Meijer.”

In a statement, Mr. DePerno said he’s “proud that local and state party leaders have endorsed my campaign. Ms. Karamo’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Republican candidates facing Mr. DePerno and Ms. Karamo were taken aback by the endorsements and were outraged at the meddling by the state party leadership before the convention. Ms. Maddock, some candidates charged, appeared to be trying to tip the scales in favor of Trump-backed candidates.

Beau LeFave, a Republican state legislator who is running for secretary of state, said that he had spoken to both Ms. Maddock and her husband, State Representative Matt Maddock, “multiple times” before jumping into his race. They told him they were both rooting for him “and that they’re going to stay out of it,” he said.

“So it was quite a surprise to find out that they lied to me,” Mr. LeFave said.

Imagine that…

Climate hope

some good news for a change

There is an extremely important and hope-filled climate paper out in Nature today. It finds that, if all the countries of the world fulfilled their climate commitments, the world would most likely limit climate change to just under 2 degrees C.

This is the latest of more than a dozen studies over the last 3 years that have found that we’ve bent the curve of future warming down significantly. Here’s a summary of those papers, from @hausfath and @ClimateFran

For context, when I started in climate around 2010, expectations were that we would see 4 – 6 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100. That would be truly apocalyptic warming, with a severe chance of kicking off major feedback loops, and dramatic disruptions to civilization.

We now see a line of sight to staying below 2 degrees C. Now, our aspirations have also lifted. We’d like to stay below 1.5 degrees C of warming. And we have to be clear. We are not going to stay below 1.5 degrees C through decarbonization. It’s no longer plausible.

Even if we were to stay below 1.5 degrees C (which we’re not), we would have major challenges with increased extreme weather, fires, & potential loss of almost all coral reefs.

So this new paper, and this wave of modeling studies, are extremely good news. Civilization will not end at 2 degrees C. There’s every reason to believe that median human welfare will be much higher in 2100, at this level of warming, than it is today.

Even so, there is much more work to be done. First, we must actually achieve the decarbonization that matches national pledges, meaning net zero in the rich world by ~2050, and in China and India by 2060 & 2070. That will require tech, policy, and economic innovation.

Second, we ought to find ways to even further accelerate this timeline for decarbonization. Every 10th of a degree matters. Bending the curve further to 1.8 or 1.7 degrees matters. The sooner we get to net zero, the better.

Third, we need to develop tools to intervene in fragile ecosystems to make them more resilient to climate effects. If you care about, e.g., coral reefs, this is no longer optional. They need our help to survive and thrive, even at 1.5-2 degrees C.

Fourth, we need to develop tools to guard against tail risks. While these new studies show warming will *probably* stay below 2C, there are error bars, and there are still risks of feedback loops that cause faster warming than expected. We need tools to knock off that risk…

While I’ve used the past few tweets on controversial opinions, I want to come back to the very good news. Signs are that we’ve bent the curve of future warming from apocalyptic (4-6 degrees) to very survivable (~2 degrees). This is fantastic news.

The full nature paper with this newest modeling study (showing ~1.9 degrees C of warming if all nations fulfill their pledges) is here:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04553-z

A useful explanatory thread on this recent study and the last 3 years of studies showing that we’ve bent the curve is here, from @hausfath

Originally tweeted by Ramez Naam (@ramez) on April 13, 2022.

Crossover

These faith holidays rarely align

Seder plate. Photo byRobert Couse-Baker via Flickr (CC BY 2.0).

From the Columbia Missourian:

For the first time since 1991, the observance of Ramadan, Good Friday and Passover aligned.

For all three religions — Islam, Christianity and Judaism — the holidays represent a time of reflection.

For Muslims, Friday fell within the month of Ramadan, a season of fasting and prayer to celebrate God’s delivery of the holy word.

For Christians, it was Good Friday, a day commemorating the crucifixion of Jesus.

And for Jews, Friday marked the first day of Passover, an eight-day celebration of the exodus of Israelites from slavery.

This overlap of all three religious holidays is rare because of the different calendars followed by each faith.

Borrowed the following shared by Ken Bernstein (teacherken) at Daily Kos whose wife’s friend got it from a friend, etc.

Top ten signs you might be at a Republican seder

10. They refuse to answer the four questions without a subpoena.
9. They demand a recount of the ten plagues.
8. They defend not increasing the minimum wage on the grounds that according to Chad Gadya it still costs only two zuzzimto buy a goat.
7. The afikomen is hidden in the Caymen Islands.
6. They refuse to open the door for Elijah until they see his immigration papers.
5. They attack Moses for negotiating a deal with Pharoah because why would we negotiate with our enemies?  
4. They don’t understand why the Egyptians didn’t cure the plagues with hydroxychloroquine.
3. They omit the parts about slavery from the Haggadah because it reminds them of Critical Race Theory.
2. They keep saying “when do we get to the miracle of the Jewish space lasers?”  
And the number one sign that you might be at a Republican seder:
1. They end the seder by singing “Next year in Mar-a-Lago.”
HAPPY PASSOVER

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For The Win, 4th Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free, countywide get-out-the-vote planning guide for county committees at ForTheWin.us. This is what winning looks like.

Bad Lennon remix

All Vlad is saying: surrender or die

Russian cluster munitions.

No sign of surrender in Mariupol where the situation “remains as severe as possible. Just inhuman,” says Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. An estimated 100,000 Ukrainians still remain in the city reportedly “largely under Russian control” (CNN).:

Russia’s Ministry of Defense confirmed Sunday that an ultimatum for Ukrainian soldiers still resisting an unrelenting assault in parts of the devastated southeastern city to surrender had been ignored.

In a statement, it said that the surrounded Ukrainian soldiers at the Azovstal plant “were offered to voluntarily lay down arms and surrender in order to save their lives.”

“However, the Kiev nationalist regime, according to the radio intercept, forbade negotiations about surrendering,” the Ministry claimed.

It also asserted that according to Ukrainian soldiers who had previously surrendered “there are up to 400 foreign mercenaries who joined the Ukrainian forces” trapped at the plant. including Europeans and Canadians. “In case of further resistance, all of them will be eliminated,” it said.

The Washington Post added after the 6 a.m. Kyiv-time deadline for surrender passed, “Russia gave soldiers holed up in the Avozstal steel works, a final remaining Ukrainian stronghold, a further few hours to lay down their weapons, offering a guarantee that they would be not be killed.”

We won’t kill you if you surrender. Really.

Elsewhere in Ukraine:

Three explosives specialists of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine were killed and four were seriously injured while clearing cluster munitions near Kharkiv.

The head of the Kharkiv regional military administration, Oleh Syniehubov, reported this on Telegram, Ukrinform reports.

“Unfortunately, while clearing Russian cluster munitions near Kharkiv, three explosives specialists were killed and four were wounded. They are now in hospital. In total, 31 people, including four children, were injured in the shelling by the Russians in the past 24 hours. Three civilians died,” he said.

Pope Francis calls for peace amid “Easter of war” (CNN)

Pope Francis on Sunday said the world is marking an “Easter of war,” and called for peace in Ukraine, which he said has been dragged into a “cruel and senseless war.” 

“We have seen all too much blood, all too much violence. Our hearts, too, have been filled with fear and anguish,” the Pope said while delivering his annual “Urbi et Orbi” Easter blessing, adding “our eyes, too, are incredulous on this Easter of war.” 

“May there be peace for war-torn Ukraine, so sorely tried by the violence and destruction of the cruel and senseless war into which it was dragged. In this terrible night of suffering and death, may a new dawn of hope soon appear! Let there be a decision for peace. May there be an end to the flexing of muscles while people are suffering,” Pope Francis said from the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica after Easter Mass. 

[…]

“I hold in my heart all the many Ukrainian victims, the millions of refugees and internally displaced persons, the divided families, the elderly left to themselves, the lives broken and the cities razed to the ground. I see the faces of the orphaned children fleeing from the war,” Pope Francis continued.  

C’mon, ev’rybody’s talking about
Ministers, sinisters, banisters and canisters
Bishops and Fishops and Rabbis and Popeyes and bye-bye, bye-byes

All we are saying is give peace a chance
All we are saying is give peace a chance

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For The Win, 4th Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free, countywide get-out-the-vote planning guide for county committees at ForTheWin.us. This is what winning looks like.

SIFF-ting through cinema: Week 1

https://www.sixpackfilm.com/media/images/werke/A2551.01_b.large.jpg

The 2022 Seattle International Film Festival celebrated its opening night on April 14th. This year’s SIFF is a “hybrid experience”, combining virtual access to many selections with a return to in-person screenings.  SIFF is showing 262 shorts, features and docs from 80 countries. The Festival runs now through April 24th, so let’s just dive right in…

SIFF is showcasing 41 documentaries this year, and many look intriguing. Sweetheart Deal (USA) is billed as an “unflinchingly honest” portrait of 4 heroin-addicted sex workers struggling for survival along Seattle’s infamous Aurora Avenue. Riotsville, USA (USA) tells the story of a government-funded fake town built on a military installation in the late 60s for practicing crowd-control against “Black Panther agitators” (the exercises were filmed and distributed for police training purposes).

On the meditative side: Filmed over 6 years, Dark Red Forest (China) is a verité reflection on the “mysterious daily life” of Buddhist nuns, documenting an annual retreat attended by thousands at the Yarchen Gar Monastery in Tibet. River (Australia) is being compared to the Qatsi trilogy, with “soothing, poetic narration by Willem Dafoe” and a “haunting score by Radiohead’s Johnny Greenwood and more”. They had me at “Qatsi”.

Pop culture docs: Only in Theaters (USA) is billed as “an ode” to a venerable LA-based art house theater chain run by the Laemmle family. Several promising music docs are also on my “too see” list, including a profile of Sinéad O’Connor called Nothing Compares (Ireland), Jazz Fest: A New Orleans Story (USA), which takes a look back at 50 years of the New Orleans Jazz and Heritage Festival, and Bernstein’s Wall (USA) which blends “TV interviews, home movies, and excerpts from sexually frank letters” to construct an (assumingly) intimate portrait of iconic composer and conductor Leonard Bernstein.

Always with the drama: Warm Blood (USA) is set in the 1980s, and described as a “grungy, politically subversive mix of narrative, documentary, and trash B-movies about the underbelly of America”…right in my wheelhouse. Drunken Birds (Canada/Quebec) concerns a Mexican drug cartel worker who finds seasonal migrant work in Quebec while searching for his long-lost love. The trailer suggests a Terrence Malick-style visual palette. Ali & Eva (UK) is a cross-cultural “middle-age lonely-hearts” romance that its director calls “a diegetic musical” (a middlebrow’s confession: I had look up “diegetic”).

Lightening the mood: “Imagine if Ealing Studios and ESPN teamed up to co-produce a film.” I imagine I’ll find out, as the dramedy Phantom of the Open (UK) is on my list. Also from the UK, The Duke is a dramedy based on the 1961 heist of a Goya portrait of from London’s National Gallery, conducted by an unlikely culprit (Jim Broadbent and Helen Mirren are the primary draw for me). Cha Cha Real Smooth (USA) is a dramedy about “a bar mitzvah party host who makes friends with a mother and her autistic daughter” (it earned the U.S. Dramatic Audience Award earlier this year at Sundance).

“Funny” how? Celts (Serbia) is a dark comedy about “a harried and undersexed mother” in 1993 Belgrade who slips out of her 8 year-old daughter’s sleepover party for a little partying of her own during a politically tumultuous era (I’m sensing echoes of Milos Forman’s The Firemen’s Ball). Barbarian Invasion (Malaysia) is “an empowering show-biz satire” about an actress and single mom who has been on hiatus for 10 years taking care of her son. She lands the lead in a surefire-hit action film, with one caveat: she’s required to do her own martial arts stunts. Cop Secret (France/Iceland) is an Icelandic action comedy that goofs on the buddy-cop genre (with a hint of Nordic noir, perhaps?).

Let’s go do some crimes: Hinterland (Germany) is a period thriller set in post WWI Vienna, described as “an expressionist crime thriller, filmed entirely on blue-screen”. The Man in the Basement (France) is a “neighbor from hell” thriller starring one of my favorite contemporary French actors, François Cluzet. A man purchases a basement from a well-off couple as a storage space …but then moves in. In the psychological thriller Out of Sync (Spain), “time, space, and sound fall hopelessly out of sync” for a Foley artist.

Odds and ends: Billed as “an outback Western”, The Legend of Molly Johnson (Australia) was written and directed by star Leah Purcell. The film is a reworking of Henry Lawson’s 1892 colonial classic. Inu-oh (Japan) is an anime fictionalizing “the collaboration between Inu-kong, a 14th-century masked performer, and a blind biwa player.” And 2551.01 (Austria) is “an experimental, punk-style interpretation of Charlie Chaplin’s The Kid—with elements of Guy Maddin, Freaks, the Brothers Quay, David Lynch, and Titicut Follies” …which suggests I picked a bad week to give up doing mushrooms.

Obviously, I’ve barely scratched the surface. I’ll be plowing through the catalog and sharing reviews with you beginning next Saturday (check out my Twitter feed @denofcinema5 for capsule reviews). In the meantime, visit the SIFF site for full details on film schedules, virtual viewing options, event screenings, special guests, and more.

Previous posts with related themes:

SIFF review archives (2007-2021)

More reviews at Den of Cinema

Dennis Hartley

What did Kushner do for all that money?

The big clue is in his bromance with MBS

Vicky Ward (author of the book Kushner, Inc.: Greed. Ambition. Corruption. The Extraordinary Story of Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump) has some stunning reporting. If this is confirmed, it’s hard to imagine how Jared can get away with it.

Oh what am I saying, of course he can get away with it …

Anyway, here’s her report and I have to say that it’s totally believable:

On Monday, I wrote about the staggering sum of $2 billion entrusted by the Saudi investment fund PIF to Jared Kushner’s new fund, Affinity Partners—reportedly at the behest of Saudi Crown Prince MBS over objections by a panel of financial advisers who highlighted Kushner’s lack of track record. I reported that the money was possibly both an IOU for sympathetic foreign policy led by Kushner during the Trump years and also a bet by MBS on a return to the White House by Kushner’s father-in-law, Donald Trump.

Since then, I’ve learned that what’s at the heart of this potentially reveals the reason Kushner was denied a top-secret security clearance by the CIA.

I’m told it was Kushner and Kushner’s allies who blocked top-level U.S. government support for MBS’s cousin, former Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef (MBN)—a long-time intelligence and counter-terrorist asset for the U.S.—when MBN attempted a legal coup d’état in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 2017. MBN believed he had enough support from the so-called “Council of Ministers” to back him in a regime change.

If successful, both King Salman and MBS (then deputy crown prince) would have been unseated and replaced by MBN. My sources tell me it was Kushner and his allies in the White House who got word to MBS of bin Nayef’s plans, and the plot was abruptly stopped. (As I’ve mentioned before, a spokesperson for Kushner has denied passing on intelligence to the Saudis).

But, according to three sources with knowledge, it was this meddling in Saudi royal affairs that caused U.S. intelligence officials to go “apoplectic” and prevent Kushner from getting a top-level security clearance.

MBN has not been heard from since his arrest in March 2020, when he was imprisoned somewhere in Saudi Arabia. Sporadic reports of his health have not been good, to put it mildly.

According to Bruce Riedel, a former C.I.A. officer and senior fellow of both intelligence and Middle East policy at Brookings who has known MBN, it was “highly plausible” that Kushner was “paid off” for getting MBN out of the way.

It’s a view I’ve heard echoed by three other sources in the intelligence community who are experienced in the region and who dealt with Kushner.

“MBN remains the most likely successor, if MBS was ever moved out of the way, despite being in prison for three years now,” says Riedel. “He is a genuine national hero. He risked his life more than once to fight Al-Qaeda and delivered. And I think he became an opponent of the war [in] Yemen. And of course the war [in] Yemen is MBS’s signature foreign policy. I’ve always wondered why the agency was reluctant to give Jared top-secret clearance, and spilling intelligence to the Saudis [about MBN] would be a reason.”

What is already known from public records and reports is that, in May 2017, the Saudi ministry to the interior (Nayef’s purview) hired the D.C. firm of Trump-friendly lobbyist Robert Stryk for $5.4 million to work for bin Nayef and provide “broad advisory services including public relations and media engagement as well as public affairs counsel along with marketing and outreach as pertaining to the United States.” (Stryk filed a FARA (Foreign Rights Registration Act) disclosure.) This was just weeks after MBS—then only deputy crown prince—paid a visit to the White House in March, where he reportedly met with Trump and, separately, Kushner. It was also just weeks before King Salman stripped MBN of the Crown Prince title and gave it instead to MBS.

What has not been reported is that, during this time period, MBN told people he believed that Kushner and MBS had formed an “alliance” of some sort that involved getting rid of him. MBN reportedly felt he needed to act preemptively and wanted to make sure he retained top U.S. government support in the event he staged a coup d’état to usurp both King Salman, whom he believed was mentally incompetent, and MBS, whom he thought was dangerous.

According to someone with knowledge of MBN’s thinking, “He basically wanted the U.S. to tell the Saudis that if they fucked with him, they’d be fucking with all the U.S.-Saudi bilateral agreements.”

MBN knew he had the backing of the U.S. intelligence community, who loved him. In 2017, then-CIA director Mike Pompeo had even awarded him a medal for saving American lives. But MBN also believed that Kushner and MBS were working against him. He even told people that he figured there was some sort of financial arrangement between Kushner and MBS that would eventually be revealed, if their plan was to work.

MBN’s alleged palace coup effort was stymied, however, before it ever began. King Salman and MBS allegedly learned of what was afoot—my sources believe from Kushner or people close to him—at warp speed. “The Kushner machine went into action,” a source told me. And the U.S. did nothing to help MBN when he was deposed and replaced by MBS a month later.

Subsequently, on March 6, 2020, MBN was arrested and charged with treason (which he denied) and has not been heard from since. He has literally been “disappeared.” Meanwhile, his chief aide, Saad bin Khalid Aljabri, fled to Canada.

According to Bruce Riedel, the treatment of a senior royal like this is unprecedented, even in Saudi Arabia: “There’s been reports with pretty gruesome details of knives and torture [about MBN]. All of this is just not the Saudi Arabia that existed for the last hundred years, I can’t think of a single case of a royal prince being arrested and put in jail, not one. Maybe there are one or two junior princesses who got in trouble over drugs or something who were put in rehab. But the notion that a member of the royal family—who let alone is a former crown prince—would be put in prison and basically vanish from the face of the earth is… That’s not how the royal family operates.”

Nor is what allegedly happened normally how the U.S. government works. Which might go some way toward explaining why senior intelligence officials prevented Kushner from getting a top security clearance.

Unlike Mohammed bin Salman, Mohammed bin Nayef was a huge intelligence asset to the U.S. He was viewed as a moderate—someone the U.S. “deep state” wanted to work with as the ruler of Saudi Arabia.

“He gave us the flight plan and the code for bombs that were being sent by commercial industries into the United States,” Riedel told me. “Intelligence never gets more actionable than that. I mean: the flight number that the bomb is coming on. That’s about as good as it gets.”

Further, bin Nayef was well-liked within the council of ministers, unlike MBS, and he was a moderate.

“Saudi Arabia was never a nice place. It was never a democracy, but it was not a repressive police state like this. And, certainly, members of the royal family were never ever imprisoned, nor were senior people in the business world. I mean, that just didn’t happen,” says Riedel referring to the round-ups by MBS of business people, members of the royal family, and former government ministers in 2017 in the Ritz Carlton hotel in Riyadh. “If King Salman dies, I think it’s questionable if MBS is the automatic successor. I think he literally would be prepared to use force to compel them [the council of princes]. But there are going to be some who are going to say, No, he’s a poor choice. He’s misrun the government. He got us involved endless war in Yemen that cost a fortune and ended up with the Iranians winning. He’s shaken down members of the royal family at the hotel. I think there’s a lot more animosity against MBS than is often portrayed. And he becomes much more vulnerable once daddy’s no longer political cover for him. And the person he’s most vulnerable to is Mohammed bin Nayef.”

Given, this you’d think that the Biden administration would be moving heaven and earth to help MBN. Riedel says that, as far as he knows, CIA director Bill Burns is trying. But, according to Riedel, whatever is going on in back-channels is not enough.

“It’s extraordinary that MBN has basically been forgotten by those countries who he worked with and whose citizens he saved, including Americans,” says Riedel. “I can understand that there might be a logic initially to trying to work this quietly behind the scenes, but it’s April—it’s been more than a year since the Biden administration came in. And working behind the scenes has not worked to get Mohammed bin Nayef out.”

I’ve previously reported there’s currently a frenzied back channel between the Biden administration and the Saudis because of the rising price of oil due to the war in Ukraine. This comes after months of a big chill emanating from the Biden White House to Saudi Arabia. So, the news of the Kushner investment and the bad odor it gives off could scarcely come at a less politically expedient moment.

Riedel says that people often ask him why Biden doesn’t put the past behind when it becomes to Saudi Arabia.

“My answer is [that] the Washington Post won’t let him,” Riedel says. (The Post is where Jamal Khashoggi, the dissident who was murdered by a team working for Mohammed bin Salman was employed.) “The Washington Post is not going to let Joe Biden get away with this. In fact, they have an editorial that they just posted about Kushner. It doesn’t talk about Mohammed bin Nayef, but it says it’s pretty obvious that Kushner is getting paid off for something.

I’m sure you remember the stories of the “two lads” talking late into the night, right? How they had an ongoing back-channel chat via WhatsApp (outside the surveillance system that would normally be in place)?

Recall this from The Intercept in March 2021, which backs up at least some of what Ward says:

UNTIL HE WAS stripped of his top-secret security clearance in February, presidential adviser Jared Kushner was known around the White House as one of the most voracious readers of the President’s Daily Brief, a highly classified rundown of the latest intelligence intended only for the president and his closest advisers.

Kushner, who had been tasked with bringing about a deal between Israel and Palestine, was particularly engaged by information about the Middle East, according to a former White House official and a former U.S. intelligence professional.

In June, Saudi prince Mohammed bin Salman ousted his cousin, then-Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, and took his place as next in line to the throne, upending the established line of succession. In the months that followed, the President’s Daily Brief contained information on Saudi Arabia’s evolving political situation, including a handful of names of royal family members opposed to the crown prince’s power grab, according to the former White House official and two U.S. government officials with knowledge of the report. Like many others interviewed for this story, they declined to be identified because they were not authorized to speak about sensitive matters to the press.

In late October, Jared Kushner made an unannounced trip to Riyadh, catching some intelligence officials off guard. “The two princes are said to have stayed up until nearly 4 a.m. several nights, swapping stories and planning strategy,” the Washington Post’s David Ignatius reported at the time.

“Some questions by the media are so obviously false and ridiculous that they merit no response. This is one. The Intercept should know better,” said Peter Mirijanian, a spokesperson for Kushner’s lawyer Abbe Lowell.

On November 4, a week after Kushner returned to the U.S., the crown prince, known in official Washington by his initials MBS, launched what he called an anti-corruption crackdown. The Saudi government arrested dozens of members of the Saudi royal family and imprisoned them in the Ritz-Carlton Riyadh, which was first reported in English by The Intercept. The Saudi figures named in the President’s Daily Brief were among those rounded up; at least one was reportedly tortured.

I don’t know anything about the succession plans for Saudi Arabia and maybe this is just someone with an agenda pushing this. But I think it’s obvious that Kushner was paid off for something, and this is as likely as anything else.

There was no Democratic voter fraud

No really, there wasn’t. There still isn’t.

There was Republican voter fraud, most notoriously by Trump’s White House Chief of Staff. But the 2020 election was legit and Republicans knew it.

The Washington Post’s Philip Bump comments on CNN’s blockbuster story about Senator Mike Lee and Rep. Chip Roy’s series of texts with Mark Meadows about Trump’s attempted coup.

What’s particularly striking about the text messages obtained by CNN sent from Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Rep. Chip Roy (R-Tex.) to President Donald Trump’s chief of staff Mark Meadows in the weeks after the 2020 election is how ready they were to think rampant fraud had actually occurred.

For months before Election Day, Trump and his team had been warning that such fraud was imminent, elevating quickly debunked claims about impropriety and pointing at old research on mail-in balloting as evidence that the structure undergirding the vote was shaky. Trump generated an appetite for stories about ballots being found in the garbage or burned up in mail trucks or what-have-you, and the conservative media scrambled to meet the demand. But all of it was objectively unfounded — as one might have expected a senator or a representative to understand.

That Lee didn’t is explained somewhat by the news sources he shares with Meadows as he tries to help shape the White House’s post-election strategy: an article from Breitbart, one from the Washington Examiner, a tweet from a right-wing pundit. Within that bubble, the run-up to the election was a period of rampant scheming and dishonesty aimed at stealing the election.Advertisement

But then the election happened, and it very quickly became obvious that none of this had happened.

Roy and Lee each pushed for Trump and the White House to release proof of rampant fraud, in their own ways.

On the day the election was called for Joe Biden, Roy insisted to Meadows that “we need ammo. We need fraud examples. We need it this weekend.” Two days later, he demanded “a message that isn’t wild-eyed” — seemingly a tacit excoriation of Trump’s eager embrace of whatever nonsense he came across that smelled at all like fraud. And then, a few days after that, Roy inquired about where he might find a catalogue of fraud claims, something that did exist but which was filled with the sort of wild-eyed nonsense he sought to avoid.

Lee’s approach was more technical, centered on creating alternate slates of electors that — importantly — upheld the letter of state law, which Trump’s didn’t. (Lee also touted attorney Sidney Powell, an error in judgment that will haunt his dreams for decades.) But he, too, told Meadows that the White House would need “a strong evidentiary argument” to compel senators.

It’s a reminder that Trump had no such thing. That he has no such thing. That his insistences before the election that fraud would happen were simply replaced with insistences that fraud would be proved, an unending con job that continues to this day.

At the end of November 2020, three weeks after the election had been called, I wrote an article making this point as gently as possible. Trump had made a massive number of claims about fraud in speeches, in interviews and on social media and, to a one, they had been rejected upon examination. Sometimes that led to Trump simply no longer talking about them. Sometimes he ignored the reality, as with the ballots that were removed from a container in Georgia and which Trump insisted were somehow fraud despite the actual, innocent explanation being available for weeks. He raised that one in his infamous call with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) — despite Raffensperger’s office having helped debunk the claim!

An uncountable number of times, Trump has claimed that evidence of fraud was coming soon. In the early days after the election, this was probably compelling. If you’re Mike Lee or Chip Roy and you’re hoping Trump won, that the Biden victory could be shown to be hollow, that’s going to be compelling. And, in fact, Roy’s texts to Meadows show that sort of enthusiasm.

On Nov. 22, 2020, he told Meadows that “[i]f we don’t get logic and reason in this before 11/30 — the GOP conference will bolt (all except the most hard core Trump guys).” Hence his excitement on Nov. 24 at this Meadows tweet:

What happened in that case? The court gutted the pro-Trump challenge as baseless. Trump’s allies often claim that no court ever considered the evidence of fraud, a claim that’s often true simply because there was no credible evidence of fraud to consider. But in this case in Nevada, the court was very specific.

“In a detailed, 35-page decision, Judge James T. Russell of the Nevada District Court in Carson City vetted each claim of fraud and wrongdoing made by the Trump campaign in the state and found that none was supported by convincing proof,” The Washington Post reported at the time. “The judge dismissed the challenge with prejudice, ruling that the campaign failed to offer any basis for annulling more than 1.3 million votes cast in the state’s presidential race.”

But, of course, none of this deterred Trump himself. His investment in having people believe that his loss was not a function of his own failings preceded the election by months and has followed the election by even longer. Most Republicans have moved away from claiming that the election was stolen through fraud to instead claiming that it was “rigged” by devious things like nonprofit efforts to increase voter turnout. Trump and die-hards like MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell, though, keep claiming that there was also rampant fraud and that they are weeks — no, days! no, hours! — away from proving it.

In an interview with The Post’s Josh Dawsey last week, Trump said this specifically. He pledged that in the following days, new evidence of fraud would emerge, showing millions of illegal votes. Then, in the following days, such a claim did emerge. There was no evidence of millions of illegal votes cast — or, for that matter, any illegal votes. Instead what emerged was a blend of technical complexity and crime-show jargon that, at best, might have caught some people collecting and submitting legal ballots in a way that, in some states, violated the law.

It’s easy to look at the past 17 months with hindsight and recognize that Trump’s simply elevating nonsense in his effort to keep his hooks (and his fundraising siphon) embedded in his base. But it was similarly obvious on Nov. 3 that he was not being honest in his assessments of the election. He had spent so long before the election doing what he has spent the months afterward doing: saying things happened that didn’t happen and suggesting that things were nefarious which weren’t.

A member of the House and a senator should have recognized that Trump was being dishonest before the election and should have not assumed that real evidence of rampant fraud would emerge afterward. It hasn’t. By now, it’s safe to say that it won’t.

The problem is that Trump floods the email boxes of his supporters daily with lies about fraudulent ballots being turned up in Arizona and Wisconsin and thousands of hours of footage of Black people stuffing ballot boxes etc. It’s totally convoluted, impossible to decipher and it’s relentless. Trump is telling them that he has proved the case and that is all the proof they need.

This is a problem that might have be solved if the rest of the party and right wing media had come together to tell the truth, which they know, instead of going along with it. But that ship sailed. and now nearly half the country believes the last election was stolen despite the fact that it is a total lie.

Statistics are reverse racism

…or something

What in the hell is this?

It is obvious that the point of banning CRT is to ban any discussion of race in America. Any.

I’m afraid they are going to be thwarted by the students. They know race exists and they know it is an issue. Good luck trying to erase it from the curriculum.