Month: May 2022

A pattern emerges

With two exceptions, all of Trump’s choices, win or lose, get around 32% of the Republican primary vote.

Sadly, that doesn’t mean the vast majority of the rest of them won’t docilely fall in line and vote for whatever GOPer wins. They crave power more than anything. But it does indicate that Trump’s clout in primary elections is only applicable to about 30% of the base.

Not that it matters in the long run. That 30% is the tail that wags the dog. They will dictate much of the general election campaign and will ensure that whoever wins does not betray the MAGA cult. They are these guys and they scare the hell out of everyone:

Young people aren’t like the rest of them

It looks like this Senator doesn’t know how to read a room:

Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) apologized on Monday after she was booed by a crowd during a commencement address at the University of Wyoming for saying it is a “fundamental scientific truth” that there are only “two sexes.”

Lummis said “it was never my intention to make anyone feel un-welcomed or disrespected,” and apologized to those who were made to feel that way, according to Oil City News.

“My reference to the existence of two sexes was intended to highlight the times in which we find ourselves, times in which the metric of biological sex is under debate with potential implications for the shared Wyoming value of equality,” the statement read.

During the commencement address on Sunday, Lummis said constitutional rights were under attack in the U.S. and “even fundamental scientific truths such as the existence of two sexes, male and female, are subject to challenge these days.”

The remark immediately drew a loud chorus of boos from the crowd, as Lummis paused for an awkward smile.

“You know, I — ” Lummis said, then waved her hand dismissively. “I challenge those of you. I’m not making a comment on the fact that there are people who transition between sexes.”

Lummis then moved on to another topic, ignoring repeated boos from the crowd.

Where did she think she was? CPAC? Hasn’t she heard that universities are hotbeds of tolerance and diversity? Maybe she thought Wyoming youth were different.

They’re not.

I fully expect the GOP Governor will push a DeSantis style ban on discussions of trans rights — maybe even at the University. That’s how they roll.

He just slapped his brand on the GOP base

Last night, Pennsylvania Republicans nominated a Big Lie proponent and January 6th “Stop the Steal” attendee named Doug Mastriano to run for governor of Pennsylvania in November. Mastriano is so MAGA that even Donald Trump was afraid to endorse him — until it became obvious that Mastriano was going to win so he jumped on the bandwagon last Friday in order to keep his followers from wondering where his loyalties lie.

Kathy Barnette, the other super MAGA GOP candidate running for the open Senate seat, made a late surge but was unable to overcome her opponents, the Trump-endorsed TV celebrity Dr. Mehmet Oz and his arch-rival David McCormick, a wealthy hedge fund executive with establishment credentials. That race remains too close to call this morning and could be decided by late counted mail-in ballots. Funny that. The irony is so thick it would take a chainsaw to cut through it.

So, in the big marquee primary races in Pennsylvania, it appears that one undisputedly far right MAGA candidate won despite not being endorsed by Trump himself until the last minute and the other will be won by a hair by either the Trump endorsee or a man pushed hard by the GOP establishment. 

Naturally, the big question among all the political analysts is whether or not Trump still has any clout.

He did seem to push JD Vance to the top in last week’s Ohio Senate primary, but as you can see, it didn’t seem to mean that much in Pennsylvania. Last week his chosen candidate for Nebraska governor (a fellow accused sexual abuser) lost badly, and last night Trump’s choice for Idaho Governor (a far-right candidate in the Mastriano mold) also went down in flames.

Congressman Madison Cawthorn, meanwhile, in North Carolina lost his race, after a brutal barrage of negative opposition from the GOP establishment in D.C. which decided that he’d crossed their red line when he publicly mentioned that he’d been invited to cocaine-fueled orgies by members of Congress he’d always looked up to. Trump had endorsed Cawthorn and even stepped in belatedly on the day before the election to appeal to voters to give Cawthorn a second chance.  So that’s another one in the loss column. Soothing the wound, however, was the big win by Ted Budd for Senate in North Carolina. Trump had endorsed Budd very early against the wishes of the state GOP.

So, the Trump endorsement clout game has been a mixed bag.

You can see that Trump obviously did not want to offend the MAGA voters …

He, of course, will take credit for the wins and ignore the losses as he always does and his followers won’t even notice. In fact, it seems pretty clear at this point that while they remain enthralled by Trump himself, MAGA is bigger than he is — and Pennsylvania’s Mastriano is its poster boy. He’s more Trump than Trump.

If there is an important story coming out of the primaries so far it’s that there are two kinds of candidates in the Republican Party, those who are led around by the nose by the MAGA base and those who are the MAGA base. Ironically, Trump himself is one of the former. He’s always been tuned into the right and far right’s zeitgeist and he follows it closely. Take for instance what he said about the insurgent candidate Kathy Barnette in the days just before the election:

“Kathy Barnette will never be able to win the General Election against the Radical Left Democrats. She has many things in her past which have not been properly explained or vetted, but if she is able to do so, she will have a wonderful future in the Republican Party — and I will be behind her all the way.”

That mealy-mouthed comment was worthy of Rep. Kevin McCarthy at his most unctuous. You can see that Trump obviously did not want to offend the MAGA voters who were flocking to her. They aren’t his. He is theirs. 

In fact, every Republican candidate has to ensure that he doesn’t antagonize the base and even if he or she is trying hard to walk the line between the less doctrinaire Trump voters and the true believers in statewide races, some positions are non-negotiable.

For instance, no GOP candidates are allowed to admit that the Big Lie is a big lie otherwise they risk alienating a huge portion of the GOP electorate. Trump started that, of course. But it’s no longer really about him. It’s now a MAGA litmus test — a sign of respect, a sort of loyalty oath to the movement. If you aren’t ready to deny reality in service to the cause, you simply aren’t MAGA. Advertisement:

Candidates like JD Vance and Dr. Oz are willing to follow the base and do a fairly good job of sounding like they mean it. If David McCormick ekes out a win you can bet he’ll have to do some fancy footwork to keep the base happy. But if you want a candidate who is the real deal, it’s Doug Mastriano. He is the MAGA base. He’s a hardcore evangelical Christian Nationalist, retired Army Colonel, far-right insurrectionist and QAnon conspiracy nut. He’s got it all.

And if he wins this race, he will be able to choose his own secretary of state to administer elections in the important swing state of Pennsylvania. We don’t have to guess what will happen:

The newly nominated Republican candidate for Governor of Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano, went fully John Eastman/Rudy Giuliani nuts as a state senator in the aftermath of the 2020 election and evidently made an appearance in the mob outside the Capitol on January 6th. https://t.co/zC9eNDwsI3

— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) May 18, 2022

Election fraud conspiracy theorist and GOP nominee for PA Gov Doug Mastriano celebrating his win tonight with decertification memo author Ivan Raiklin, who says:

“20 electoral votes!”

Curious … pic.twitter.com/liYB77NJFV

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) May 18, 2022

There is nothing curious about it. They are saying that if elected Mastriano will ensure that Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes will go to Donald Trump — or whomever they choose. They aren’t even trying to hide it.

Doug Mastriano is the perfect reflection of today’s GOP and you can bet they are thrilled that he has won such an important election. But just as the evangelical base happily made common cause with the libertine Trump in order to get their social conservative courts, the base will back others who are clearly inauthentic as long as they follow the party line. In the end it really doesn’t matter what they believe in their heart of hearts, the result is the same. The MAGA genie is out of the bottle and it’s unclear if the American people will be able to put it back in.  

Salon

Russian military affairs commentator speaks unfiltered

An off-script moment from Russian TV reveals what we all knew. All is not well with Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine. Russia faces a million armed and motivated Ukrainians ready to die for their country. They are supplied with modern arms by NATO countries (with more coming) backed by 25 times the Russian Federation’s the economic output. Time is not on Putin’s side so long as Ukrainians are willing to fight Russian conscripts.

The situation over time will only get worse. Do not take “information tranquilizers,” warns Mikhail Khodaryonok:

“The main deficiency of our military-political position is that we are in full geopolitical solitude and — however we don’t want to admit it — practically the whole world is against us … and we need to get out of this situation,” Khodaryonok continued on the talk show, with the other studio guests appearing dumbstruck by his outspoken critique.

Extraordinary exchange on Russian state TV’s top talk show about Ukraine. Military analyst & retired colonel Mikhail Khodarenok tells anchor Olga Skabeyeva “the situation for us will clearly get worse…we’re in total geopolitical isolation…the situation is not normal.” pic.twitter.com/ExMwVDszsk

— Steve Rosenberg (@BBCSteveR) May 16, 2022

A bemused Josh Marshall notes (TPM):

But the best part is about halfway through he says, no, not even Rand Paul can save us. Really! He doesn’t refer to Paul by name but he notes that the Lend-Lease type program is finally getting underway, marrying unlimited troops with unlimited weaponry “and even the resistance of a single senator will be overcome quickly.” That single senator is Rand Paul, who he is so far blocking passage of the bill.

Paul’s opposition will quickly be overcome, predicts Khodaryonok.

(h/t CO)

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Request a copy of For The Win, 4th Edition, my free, countywide get-out-the-vote planning guide for county committees at ForTheWin.us.
If in a position to Play to win in 2022 (see post first), contact tpostsully at gmail dot com.

NC Democrats got what they wanted Tuesday night, but so did Republicans

Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.) is toast. Western North Carolina’s bad-boy Republican congressman lost his first reelection bid to State Senator Chuck Edwards. Edwards decisively defeated Cawthorn in the Republican primary by 18 points in their shared home county of Henderson, the most Republican large county in NC-11. Edwards topped Cawthorn by 11 points in neighboring Buncombe County, the largest in the district. Edwards won the Republican nomination Tuesday night by 33.4 to 31.9.

A noticeable (though undecisive) fraction of Democrats switched registration to UNAffiliated for the emotional satisfaction of voting against Cawthorn in the GOP primary.

Connected Republicans hated Cawthorn more. They could tolerate the 26-year-old’s multiple traffic and weapons charges, crassness, allegations of sexual misconduct, financial mismanagement in office, and possible insider trading. What they could not abide was the dude going public with lurid stories of D.C. colleagues’ cocaine-fueled orgies. (Has he ever denied attending?) That was Republicans’ red line of political death. They unleashed a (telling?) fury of political oppo against the freshman “embarrassment.” Last night the party delivered the coup de grâce.

Therein lies the problem.

Cawthorn is to Donald Trump as Edwards is to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Comparatively, someone suggested, Edwards is “All the MAGA with half the frat!” Cawthorn was a joke. Edwards is as far right, if not more, just not as flamboyant about it. And worse. He can actually do damage.

Democrats got what they wanted last night.

Cawthorn was hissing air like a slowly deflating baloon. Had Cawthorn won the nomination, Democrats with the right candidate might have had a shot, if a long one, at retaking the seat. Now that hill is even steeper. Democrats who have served in the state legislature with Edwards say he will be a serious threat in Congress.

James Fallows is worried too. There is a “gentleman’s agreement” prevalent in the press not to speak of the unspeakable. I described it Tuesday as a focus on the jockeys and not the horses. In this case, the horse Republicans are riding is the anti-democracy, MAGA radicalism of what was once a conservative party:

Trumpist candidates for state offices across the nation are promising or threatening to take election results into their own hands in 2024, if they gain power. And every political-handicapping article presenting this as midterm politics-as-usual essentially looks the other way. As Margaret Sullivan eloquently argued here.

“Nice” people still are not talking about just where the MAGA candidates across the country mean to take this country. We’d rather pretend this is all politics-as-usual than consider the existential threat hanging over our republic.

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Request a copy of For The Win, 4th Edition, my free, countywide get-out-the-vote planning guide for county committees at ForTheWin.us.
If in a position to Play to win in 2022 (see post first), contact tpostsully at gmail dot com.

This is what they mean

If you have never watched Joe Rogan, you may be surprised that he is one of the most watched podcasters in the world, loved and defended by listeners left and and right who see him as an everyman who is full of wit and common wisdom:

joe rogan having a normal one (watch until the end) pic.twitter.com/bs3CEYlpkX

— KnowNothing (@KnowNothingTV) May 17, 2022

Brandy Zadrozny, on NBC’s right wing extremist beat did some real research:

OK. So I’ve got a minute. Why Does Joe Rogan think Australia is trying to make growing your own food illegal? Let’s investigate.

He’s not alone. Twitter search shows lots of folks claiming the same. A lot of the videos and tweets include a screenshot from something called Apex World News.

https://www.tiktok.com/@awelloilednurse/video/7095571760334032130

So who is @apexworldnews? The account is a typical “breaking news” type of misinfo account. No ownership listed, spammy and unverified content. It does list a website. But … expired.

To the Wayback! Site looks junky, serves ads. And much of the content is authored by a “Grace Siwale.” There is a person on Twitter with this name (not linking) and she shares a lot of Apex World News links. She’s also deeply religious and a fan of one particular preacher.

Uebert Angel a British-Zimbabwean who preaches the prosperity gospel. (“God wants you to be rich and he’ll make it so if you … give me money?” I don’t know just go with it.)
And a little Googling shows us that. Angel founded Apex in 2020.

https://www.uebertangel.org/2020/07/17/prophet-uebert-angel-announced-the-debut-of-a-global-news-channel-called-apex-world-news/

The kind of thing you might read / see on Apex World News? Misinformation Madlibs:

Watch and follow APEX NEWS WORLD @apexworldnews for the latest news from around the world pic.twitter.com/4PEUzrWdDX

— Uebert Angel (@UebertAngel) August 4, 2020

Just for good measure, we can take a look at the website in DomainTools and see that Apex shares a mail server IP with other sites, including those that clearly belong to the preacher.

So, I wouldn’t get my news from a so-called prophet’s junk news site, but you know who might? Rogan fan, vaccine critic, Ivermectin-loving, friend of the IDW, Chris is a self described financial analyst & founder of a self-help/actualization thingie that’s definitely not an MLM.

Anyway, @joerogan. Don’t get your news from here.

Originally tweeted by Brandy Zadrozny (@BrandyZadrozny) on May 17, 2022.

These people will believe anything. They are particularly married to the idea that the pandemic has been used as an excuse by governments everywhere to repress people for nefarious reasons.

It’s obvious

If there is a difference between the Republican party of yesteryear (meaning pre-Newt) and today, I would say that in the past there was an awareness that you can’t let the crazies drive the car. They are useful to energize the voters but you can’t put them in charge because they’ll hit the gas and run off a cliff. Unfortunately for all of us, they either forgot that in recent years or just got so greedy and power-mad that they decided to let them take the heel and the results are obvious.

David Leonhardt in the NY Times:

Over the past decade, the Anti-Defamation League has counted about 450 U.S. murders committed by political extremists.

Of these 450 killings, right-wing extremists committed about 75 percent. Islamic extremists were responsible for about 20 percent, and left-wing extremists were responsible for 4 percent.

Nearly half of the murders were specifically tied to white supremacists:

As this data shows, the American political right has a violence problem that has no equivalent on the left. And the 10 victims in Buffalo this past weekend are now part of this toll. “Right-wing extremist violence is our biggest threat,” Jonathan Greenblatt, the head of the ADL, has written. “The numbers don’t lie.”

The pattern extends to violence less severe than murder, like the Jan. 6 attack on Congress. It also extends to the language from some Republican politicians — including Donald Trump — and conservative media figures that treats violence as a legitimate form of political expression. A much larger number of Republican officials do not use this language but also do not denounce it or punish politicians who do use it; Kevin McCarthy, the top House Republican, is a leading example.

It’s important to emphasize that not all extremist violence comes from the right — and that the precise explanation for any one attack can be murky, involving a mixture of ideology, mental illness, gun access and more. In the immediate aftermath of an attack, people are sometimes too quick to claim a direct cause and effect. But it is also incorrect to pretend that right-wing violence and left-wing violence are equivalent problems.

Fears in Washington

If you talk to members of Congress and their aides these days — especially off the record — you will often hear them mention their fears of violence being committed against them.

Some Republican members of Congress have said that they were reluctant to vote for Trump’s impeachment or conviction partly because of the threats against other members who had already denounced him. House Republicans who voted for President Biden’s infrastructure bill also received threats. Democrats say their offices receive a spike in phone calls and online messages threatening violence after they are criticized on conservative social media or cable television shows.

People who oversee elections report similar problems. “One in six elec­tion offi­cials have exper­i­enced threats because of their job,” the Brennan Center, a research group, reported this year. “Ranging from death threats that name offi­cials’ young chil­dren to racist and gendered harass­ment, these attacks have forced elec­tion offi­cials across the coun­try to take steps like hiring personal secur­ity, flee­ing their homes, and putting their chil­dren into coun­sel­ing.”

There is often overlap between these violent threats and white supremacist beliefs. White supremacy tends to treat people of color as un-American or even less than fully human, views that can make violence seem justifiable. The suspect in the Buffalo massacre evidently posted an online manifesto that discussed replacement theory, a racial conspiracy theory that Tucker Carlson promotes on his Fox News show.

Leonhardt goes on to point out that there are quite a few GOP leaders like Marjorie Taylor Green who have a history of calling for violence against Democrats with no sanction and little resistance from the Party. Trump, of course, has a long history of calling for violence and incited the insurrection on January 6th so the undisputed leader of the GOP is actually leading the charge.

There is simply no dispute that white supremacy is the overwhelming motivator in political violence in this country today. Yes, there is a lot of hate to go around and there are mass shootings that have nothing to do with politics. But to claim that the violent American right wing isn’t waging domestic terrorism attacks regularly is just plain wrong. Add in the anti-abortion violence, the anti-government violence and the pro-Trump violence and you have a dangerous terrorist movement living among us. And they are all armed to the teeth.

If so, Trump is going to be very upset

I don’t know how else to explain this:

She’s MAGA extraordinaire! Why would Hannity think being a gay bashing, RINO hating, January 6th insurrectionist would be a deal breaker with Republicans? I don’t get it.

Be clear, be honest

Roy Edroso had some excellent observations on the abortion rights marches over the weekend. I especially like this:

The theme that abortion is a right, not to be apologized for but to be asserted and even celebrated, was clear in the tenor of the speeches and the signs, and that’s good — because I have noticed the opposition is frantically lying its ass off that the ruling doesn’t mean so much, really, it won’t be so bad, you shouldn’t protest so hard, we swear it won’t get worse, etc., and the big-time bullshit artists like David French are out there saying of course we won’t put women in prison, we only want to imprison and execute doctors, you can trust us, look how full of love we are for you and the baby we will force you to bear.

Their dishonesty may be breathtaking, especially to those who aren’t used to seeing it, but it’s also a good sign, because it shows that the truth does them no credit, so telling it can work.  

Now that Roe is gone I don’t think there’s any more reason to believe that trying to obscure the issue. The fight is going to take a while and it’s going to require mobilizing the abortion rights majority. Rhetorical vagueness won’t get that done.

And I think that new clarity is what has the wingnuts spooked. All these people who claim to think abortion is murder are suddenly telling women that overturning Roe is no big deal and they shouldn’t be upset because they’ll all be able to get abortions, no problem. Does this make sense? I don’t think so.

DeSantis isn’t really running the show

Every single trumped up, right wing, freakout is turned into Florida law within days:

lorida’s right-wing Republican Governor Ron DeSantis on Monday signed a bill into law that criminalizes peaceful protests in residential neighborhoods.

The draconian restrictions on free speech were levied in response to the nationwide explosion of demonstrations directed at the United States Supreme Court’s anticipated overturning of abortion rights that were established in Roe versus Wade.

But when pro-choice activists began picketing outside the homes of the five Associate Justices who were named in the draft majority opinion that was leaked last month, advocates for forced birth like DeSantis decided that the Constitution’s First Amendment right to petition the government should be suspended.

None of the Court’s nine jurists, however, live in Florida.

“Sending unruly mobs to private residences, like we have seen with the angry crowds in front of the homes of Supreme Court justices, is inappropriate,” DeSantis said in a press release. “This bill will provide protection to those living in residential communities and I am glad to sign it into law.”

Fox News is running the state of Florida. And apparently, the Republicans in the state couldn’t be happier. This is what they are looking for.