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Month: July 2022

“The Democrats made me do it”

Is that really why people are voting for Trumper loons?

There’s a lot of talk right now about how the Democrats are helping the lunatic Trumpers win in various races under the logic that the crazy Trumpers are too crazy to win a statewide race so it gives Democrats an advantage if they win their primaries. But everyone is sounding the alarm that these Trumpers may just win in which case it will be all the fault of Democrats.

There are good reasons for Democrats to spend their money elsewhere and I can see both sides. I think it depends on the race and the state. But come on. Nobody’s forcing Republicans to vote for these nutcases and it is certainly Republicans who are doing it. There may be a few crossovers but it’s not significant. The GOP loves these freaks and that’s not the fault of Democrats.

JV last at the Bulwark takes this on first suggesting that it’s immoral for Democrats to ever cross over and vote for anyone but a “good” Republican but then goes on to make the case that this whole argument is bogus anyway:

Okay. With all of that out of the way: What’s with the “Democrats are making Republicans nominate dangerous candidates with all of their ads!”

We saw this with Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania:

And now we’re seeing it with Dan Cox in Maryland:

I won’t bother linking to the tweets. You’ll have to take my word that this is a line of argument that a certain species of Republican is very interested in.

But there are a few problems with it.

(1) In general, we’re seeing similar results in most R primaries, whether or not Dems have “meddled.”

In Massachusetts, Republicans pushed aside one of the most popular governors in America so that they could go ultra-MAGA. The Democrats weren’t running any boosting ads. In Wyoming, Republicans are going to kick Liz Cheney to the curb even as Democrats rally to try and support her. Look across the map and the two spots where normie Republicans have whipped MAGA are Colorado and Georgia. But those are the outliers.

In general, we’re seeing the same results in state after state, regardless of whether or not Democrats boost bad-guy candidates.


(2) In the specific cases of Pennsylvania and Maryland, the Democratic boosting does not seem to have made a significant difference.

I showed my work on the Mastriano race here. Recap: Dems spent very little money and spent it very late; Mastriano was endorsed by Trump; Mastriano had already separated himself from the pack by the time the Ds got into the race; the only real alternative was also MAGA-friendly.

Except for the MAGA-friendly alternative part, most of that holds true for Dan Cox’s victory last night in the Maryland gubernatorial primary.

-The DGA spent relatively little money boosting Cox—only about $1.2 million.

-Cox was endorsed by the most important Republican in America: Donald Trump.

-Cox already had a healthy lead in polling.

-Cox seems to have won by a significant margin.

Dan Cox didn’t win because the DGA put him over the top. He won because Maryland Republicans prefered him.


(3) Republican voters of have agency.

Ad spending does not create electoral success. Ask Jeb Bush, Jon Huntsman, Steve Forbes, David McCormick, et al. That’s because voters have agency. They find candidates they like.

There is a certain threshold for viability that needs to be crossed in politics: You need enough money so that voters know who you are and what you’re selling. But once you cross that line, the marginal utility of each dollar declines. Making the sale is in the hands of the candidate and the voters.

What’s important to understand about the boosting Dems did for Mastriano and Cox is that they weren’t hiding the football and making the candidates out to be more acceptable than they are. They were highlighting how deplorable the candidates were.

Here’s the Shapiro ad that was “boosting” Mastriano:

This is Republican state senator Doug Mastriano. He’s the Republican who’s ahead in the polls for governor. He wants to outlaw abortion. It’s Mastriano who wrote the heartbeat bill in Pennsylvania and he’s one of Donald Trump’s strongest supporters. He wants to end vote by mail and he led the fight to audit the 2020 election. If Mastriano wins, it’s a win for what Donald Trump stands for. Is that what we want in Pennsylvania?

Now here’s the DGA ad “boosting” Cox:

Meet Dan Cox, Donald Trump’s handpicked candidate for Maryland governor. Cox worked with Trump trying to prove the last election was a fraud. 100% pro life, he’s fighting to end abortion in Maryland and Cox will protect the Second Amendment at all costs, refusing to support any federal restrictions on guns. Even pushing to put armed guards in every school. Dan Cox: Too close to Trump; too conservative for Maryland.

Let’s pretend that you make Coxonium and this product is poison.

I decide to run ads promoting Coxonium that say,

Coxonium is good for your health! Tastes great, goes down smooth, and cures whatever ails you!

If people buy Coxonium, maybe that is my fault? I have lied to them about Coxonium and what it does. Sure, maybe they should have done their own research. Not relied on a single ad. Checked the news to see if anyone had died from Coxonium. But whatever. I’ve still got some culpability. I was selling people a bill of goods.

But what if I run Coxonium ads like this:

Coxonium is poison. Real, genuine poison. If you take it, you will probably die. Do not buy Coxonium because it will kill you.

And what if people who see this ad say, “Well shit, Lurleen. I been fixin’ to git myselfs some poison and damned if that Coxonium don’t look like the finest poison there is. Let’s buy it!”

Is that really on me and the ad?

Because it seems to me like the culpability lies with the guy who loves poison and can’t wait to buy it, even after being told what it does.


Here is the real reason Republican elites and members of Conservatism Inc. are so wrapped around the axle about Democrats boosting their crazy candidates:

They need to blame someone for the outcomes they don’t like. But they can’t blame Republican voters.

Because if you acknowledge that we are living in a moment where some very large portion of Republican voters are illiberal, then you are forced into some uncomfortable choices. You can either:

-Make your own accommodation with illiberalism; or

-Start supporting Democrats, however imperfect they may be.

You can, perhaps, understand why this choice so vexes many people who have the Republican party and/or Conservatism deeply entrenched in their personal identity.

For them, it’s easier to throw their hands in the air and insist that real Republicans aren’t as bad as Mastriano and Cox—it’s just that the Democrats made them do it.

Sadly, marriage equality isn’t settled

157 Republicans just made that crystal clear

Some of the best news out of the culture war front has been the fast-growing acceptance of same-sex marriage among Americans of all political stripes. Considering the rancorous debates that have been going on for decades over reproductive rights and racial equality, this has seemed like a rare bright spot in an otherwise intractable polarization on all the issues pertaining to the evolution of our cultural norms around race, gender and sexual orientation. Just last month Gallup released a poll showing that 71% of Americans now approve of same-sex marriage, an astonishing leap forward from only a few years ago.

It’s hard to believe that it was only 18 years ago that the Republicans, including the “compassionate conservative” George W. Bush, won the 2004 election partially on the basis of nationwide ballot initiatives banning gay marriage — while Democrats were loudly blaming advocates and supporters of marriage equality for their loss. Republicans used the issue as a favorite wedge during that period to divide Democrats and some of their Christian, Hispanic and Black constituents who were not yet on board with the idea. It was all quite effective. In 2008, they even managed to get Blue California to ban same-sex marriage with a ballot proposition and state constitutional amendment known as Prop. 8. The issue tied the Democrats up in knots, with presidential candidates trying to split the baby by opposing marriage equality but supporting civil unions or making fatuous paeans to states’ rights, while Republicans characterized them as out-of-the-mainstream radicals.

In 2012, the country was evenly divided on the issue and President Barack Obama finally came out in favor of gay marriage (pushed by his vice president, Joe Biden) still insisting that states should be able to choose for themselves. Public opinion moved very quickly after that. By 2015, when Obergefell v. Hodges was decided in favor of a federal right to same-sex marriage, Gallup showed that 60% of Americans were in support. Democrats took it as a political victory, which it was, since many had lost races because of their support for the issue. (The rare Republican who ventured into the fray and voted in favor also paid a price. )

It had been a very hard-fought battle but it lasted for a relatively short period of time. The issue bubbled up very quickly in the 90s and by 2015, LGBT people had gained the right to marry. It was almost a miracle considering our endless fighting over basic human rights in this country. In fact, it was downright strange. What happened to all of the anti-gay conservatives?

You need to take a closer look at that polling which shows that 71% of Americans now support gay marriage. Although it’s been growing generally, PRRI’s polling has Republican support at still only 51% and Gallup has it at a high water mark of 55%. That’s a majority — but it wouldn’t even be enough to pass legislation in the U.S. Senate. Republicans represent tens of millions of Americans who remain opposed to marriage equality, most of whom are Evangelical Christians and conservative Catholics, also known as the GOP base — the base that worked feverishly for decades to put six extremist justices on the Supreme Court to enact their theocratic agenda.

These are the most powerful bloc of voters in America and they know what they want. They do not want gay marriage and no one should fool themselves into thinking otherwise. They’re just patient.

You will hear many right-wing commentators and politicians brushing this concern off as nothing more than election year hype from the Democrats. They will say that it is “settled law” and point to Justice Samuel Alito’s reassurance that the court will not use the same logic they used in Dobbs to overturn Roe v. Wade as if everyone who supports marriage equality just fell off a catering truck full of gay wedding cakes. Please. Every justice on the court said that Roe was “settled law” in their confirmation hearing and Alito’s comment had Roberts and Kavanaugh, the two conservatives who pass for institutionalists, written all over it. It’s obvious which way the wind is blowing and everyone knows it.

As I noted a couple of days ago, canny politicians like Ron Desantis are trying to walk a fine line with the abortion issue, knowing that a large majority of the public is against taking away the right to choose. But as one of the nation’s premiere culture warriors, he needs some red meat to throw to the base and he clearly believes that LGBT issues are the ticket but he’s done it by going after easy targets — transgender kids, public school teachers. Following the strategic advice of Christopher Rufo, the latest right-wing wunderkind responsible for the contrived “CRT” controversy, and likely primed by the QAnon pedophile panic, he’s pushed the notion that gay teachers are “grooming” kids. But he’s only sidled up to the issue of gay marriage very obliquely by backing the “don’t say gay” bill that precludes teachers from even mentioning their own same-sex marriage in schools. He’s for it except when he isn’t.  

There’s a reason for this. 

While 70% of Florida Republicans swoon over these bigoted measures, they only get a bare majority of support overall. DeSantis is taking a risk that may not pay off. If he adds overt opposition to gay marriage, he will really have a problem.

The Republicans know the law isn’t so “settled” after all and think that codifying Obergefell is tantamount to court intimidation.

On Tuesday, the House of Representatives voted to protect marriage equality by passing the Respect for Marriage Act. 157 Republicans voted against it and only 47 supported it. If the law was so settled, you’d think it would have been unanimous. Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Oh., gave away the game:

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1549429770638839808?s=20&t=X60T0M1AzdUyD2NouCORmg

Apparently, the Republicans know the law isn’t so “settled” after all and think that codifying Obergefell is tantamount to court intimidation.

Democrats have realized that these contentious culture war issues do not only go one way. In fact, these days it’s the Republicans who have a problem with their base and a divided constituency. So they are calling for votes on same-sex marriage, contraception and other issues to put Republicans on the record.

Perhaps someone should ask Ron DeSantis if he believes that Florida should finally remove the same-sex marriage ban that’s still on the books in Florida? I’d imagine the voters would be interested to know. Or perhaps they should ask Florida GOP Senator Marco Rubio if he stands by his words back in 2015 when he said, “It is the current law. I don’t believe any case law is settled law. Any future Supreme Court can change it.” Even after a direct threat from a sitting Supreme Court justice, Rubio played dumb: “What’s the threat?”

Indeed it can. And a majority of the Republican Party is counting on it. It’s up to the Democrats to make sure that the rest of the country knows that. 

Salon

Texas certified insane

Yee-haw

Tony Earls and Arlene Alvarez, via KWTX.

A Harris County, Texas grand jury on Tuesday declined to bring charges against Tony Earls, “victim of an ATM robbery who fired his weapon at a vehicle he believed was transporting the man who had just robbed him, and accidentally shot and killed an innocent bystander, 9-year-old Arlene Alvarez.” The shooting occurred on Feb. 12.

Earls fired nine shots at the wrong vehicle. Texas jurors decided Earls was entitled to protect himself and his property from a fleeing suspect even if his actions cost a little girl her life. Earls’ wife, Deyonna Hines, said in February they are sleepless over the tragedy but blamed the assailant for the girl’s death. “The lives of two families have been forever altered by the poor decision of a man who is still on the streets.”

KTRK:

An investigation determined Earls and his wife were targeted by a robber near a Chase Bank ATM in the Gulfgate area. Earls then got out and shot at the fleeing suspect and a pickup truck that he thought the person was getting into, police said.

But the pickup was not the suspect’s getaway car. Instead, Arlene and her family were inside.

Earls was arrested and charged with aggravated assault but with the grand jury’s decision, his case cannot be presented again, according to Harris County District Attorney Kim Ogg.

“The grand jury, a random group of ordinary people in Harris County who answered their jury summons, heard the evidence in this case as presented by our prosecutors, heard all of the possible charges – from murder to manslaughter to aggravated assault to criminally-negligent homicide. That grand jury also heard possible defenses,” Ogg said, explaining that deadly force can be excused including under defense of property cases.

Despite Earls being black, jurors in open-carry and permit-less carry Texas likely put themselves in his shoes. But one wonders if their decision would have been different had the victim been white, not a young Latina.

Perhaps this tragedy is another reason right-wing media keep audiences stoked on fear. Because repsonsible gun owners among them will bear no responsibility for who their stray rounds kill if they can claim they fear for their lives, which is always. Because repsonsible gun owners’ right to shoot at bad guys trumps bystanders’ right not to be killed. Because in Texas, your right to fire your gun wildly outweighs a 9-year-old’s right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

There are a few, basic, safe-handling rules for firearms. One is: Be sure of your target. Know what’s in front of and behind it. There was a time in this country when as a responsible gun owner you were accountable for any damage done by the bullet fired from your gun.

Not anymore in Texas.

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Request a copy of For The Win, 4th Edition, my free, countywide get-out-the-vote planning guide for county committees at ForTheWin.us.

Reasons to elect more Democrats

Don’t make voters read betwen the lines

Democrats on Capitol Hill have gotten religion. The Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs to overturn half a century of women’s reproductive rights, and Justice Clarence Thomas’ concurring opinion prodding the court to roll back even more individual liberties, has shaken Democrats’ constituencies. Congressional Democrats hope to get ahead of what the Federalist court does next while giving voters a reason to go to the polls in 2022.

The House on Tuesday voted to pass the Respect for Marriage Act, a bill codifying legal recognition for interracial and same-sex marriages and repealing the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA). Forty-seven Republicans joined all Democrats in support:

Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other backers argued that the language of the abortion ruling also endangers a Supreme Court decision in 2015 that legalized same-sex marriage nationwide. The Supreme Court struck down DOMA as unconstitutional in 2012.

Passage of the Respect for Marriage Act by the House follows passage of two bills on Friday to restore a federal right to abortion and a woman’s right to travel acrosss state lines to access aborion services. It was the second time Democrats passed the bill restoring abortion rights.

Scheduled for a vote Wednesday in the House is a bill guaranteeing a right to contraception, also among rulings Thomas said the court should reconsider.

The bills have little chance of passage in the Senate. Unless, of course, Democrats add to their numbers in the upper chamber sufficient to overcome a filibuster. They must also hold their majority in the House in the midterm elections.

The Dobbs ruling and the Thomas opinion illuminates just where the SCOTUS extremists hope to take the country. Democrats have drawn criticism for not doing more sooner to codify these rights in federal law. And with this court, challenges would surely follow. But with the midterms looming, Democrats are scrambling now to give constituents a reason not just to vote against Republicans but things to vote for.

Give us the House and two more senators, and we will make Roe law in January 2023,” is the 2022 message TPM’s Josh Marshall advised. Democrats are demonstrating what protections they hope to pass when they have the leverage. But a series of show votes on popular bills is not enough if Democrats expect voters to get the message.

Don’t make voters read between the lines.

For God’s sake, tell the voters that’s what you are doing!

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Request a copy of For The Win, 4th Edition, my free, countywide get-out-the-vote planning guide for county committees at ForTheWin.us.

The stuff of my nightmares

Stay until the end

Massive waves hit parts of Hawaii over the weekend and into Monday, with videos showing water crashing over homes, into celebrations and more.  

Officials last week predicted a “historic” swell that would bring large waves to Hawaii’s south-facing shores. The Hawaii Department of Land and Natural Resources on Sunday confirmed that a 25-foot wave face was reported by the department’s Division of Conservation and Resources Enforcement.  

“The highest south shore surf in more than 25-years delivered as predicted,” the department said on Facebook.  

And the waves, prompted by the remnants of Hurricane Darby, continued this week, though Darby weakened into a tropical storm and then a rainstorm, according to Accuweather.  

It’s the wave crashing over a two story house that got me …

I guess this is not entirely abnormal but yikes. If you want to see entirely abnormal scroll down to Tom’s post this morning about the heat wave in Europe.  Double yikes. 

Take the money and run

Trump’s credo

Trump is pushing the Saudi sponsored golf association LIV, bigly. And it’s because he wants his resorts to host the tournaments and pay him big bucks to do so. The Saudis are happy to throw that money his way in anticipation of his possible second term of course. It’s all beneficial to both of them so they are holding their first big US tournament at Trump’s Bedminster golf resort in New Jersey.

Trump is urging all the pro golfers to take the money and run:

His comments come as families of 9/11 victims urged him to cancel the tournament, citing LIV Golf’s Saudi backing. They thinks it’s just a tad distasteful to be making big bucks from the Saudis in the back yard of 9/11. He does not care, of course.

Meanwhile, some in the media (and I’m not talking about Fox) are comparing Trump’s personally corrupt money grubbing to Biden going over to Saudi Arabia on a diplomatic mission to try to keep alliances together and energy supplies uninterrupted. Because they are exactly the same.

*Sigh*

Lawmakers do civil disobedience

It’s a start

At least 17 House Democrats were detained Tuesday at an abortion rights rally protesting the Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade.

U.S. Capitol Police said that it started arresting demonstrators after they failed to follow their three warnings to stop blocking a street in Washington, D.C. near the Supreme Court.

The lawmakers are expected to be released and fined.

Protesters sat down on First Street NE outside the Capitol building and blocked the road.

The 17 arrested lawmakers are:

Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.),

Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.)

Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.)

Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.)

Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.)

Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D-N.Y.)

Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.)

Rep. Jackie Speier (D-Calif.)

Rep. Katherine Clark (D-Mass.)

Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.)

Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.)

Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.)

Rep. Alma Adams (D-N.C.)

Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-N.J.)

Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas)

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.)

Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.)

I guess the men (except for Andy Levin) were all getting ready for the Congressional Softball Game? Oh well…

 “There is no democracy if women do not have control over their own bodies and decisions about their own health, including reproductive care,” said Maloney after being arrested.

“Our country has never really made a big changes, not expanded rights, based on some senators and representatives having a lovely conversation in the Capitol. It happens because of social movements. It happens because people march, people protest, people organize, people get arrested,” said Levin.

Asked if they are planning future actions along these lines, Speier — who led the protest — said, “Stay tuned.”

These are symbolic gestures but Levin is right that change often requires symbolic gestures and civil disobedience. The willingness to peacefully protest and get arrested for doing so can be a powerful signal. Hopefully the next time they do something like this they can persuade more than 17 of their fellow congressional reps to join them.

Something needs to be done about the Secret Service

This is a rogue agency

The texts are gone:

The U.S. Secret Service has determined it has no new texts to provide Congress relevant to its Jan. 6 investigation, and that any other texts its agents exchanged around the time of the 2021 attack on the Capitol were purged, according to a senior official briefed on the matter.

Also, the National Archives on Tuesday sought more information on “the potential unauthorized deletion” of agency text messages. The U.S. government’s chief record-keeper asked the Secret Service to report back to the Archives within 30 days about the deletion of any records, including describing what was purged and the circumstances of how the documentation was lost.

The law enforcement agency, whose agents have been embroiled in the Jan. 6 investigation because of their role shadowing and planning President Donald Trump’s movements that day, is expected to share this conclusion with the Jan. 6 committee in response to its Friday subpoena for texts and other records.

The agency, which made this determination after reviewing its communication databases over the past four days, will provide thousands of records, but nearly all of them have been shared previously with an agency watchdog and congressional committees, the senior official said. None is expected to shed new light on the key matters the committee is probing, including whether Trump attacked a Secret Service agent, an account a senior White House aide described to the Jan. 6 committee.

Many of its agents’ cellphone texts were permanently purged starting in mid-January 2021 and Secret Service officials said it was the result of an agencywide reset of staff telephones and replacement that it began planning months earlier. Secret Service agents, many of whom protect the president, vice president and other senior government leaders, were instructed to upload any old text messages involving government business to an internal agency drive before the reset, the senior official said, but many agents appear not to have done so.

The result is that potentially valuable evidence — the real-time communications and reactions of agents who interacted directly with Trump or helped coordinate his plans before and during Jan. 6 — is unlikely to ever be recovered, two people familiar with the Secret Service communications system said. They requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters without agency authorization.

There is something very wrong with this agency. According to Carol Leonnig, who reported the above and has written the definitive book on the agency, agents don’t believe the government should have access to their texts generally because they use them for personal exchanges. You would think after the Clinton email and Strozk and Page scandals they would have learned not to exchange anything personal on their government phones but apparently not.

In any case, the fact that they failed to upload texts from this particular period which was one of the most historic events of our time is more than a little bit suspicious. From what we know about the Trumpers crawling all over that agency, it’s obvious they may have had something to hide.

Why won’t they vote for marriage equality?

I think you know why…

In case you were wondering if they want the Court to overturn Obergefell:

Ask yourself why he would say this. Is it possible that he thinks the Supreme Court might just overturn Obergefell? Of course he does. If he didn’t, he wouldn’t think there was anything wrong with voting for the marriage equality bill which simply codifies the Supreme Court’s decision. And he certainly wouldn’t see it as intimidation of the Supreme Court.

They know this is on the menu. It will take a little bit of work to shake up the consensus on marriage equality but I doubt it will take a great effort to detach the right from their very tenuous sense that gay rights are acceptable. They’re already doing it in Florida and it’s catching on like wildfire in red states around the country. It won’t be long until it’s back to being a polarizing issue. And then the court will strike.

Confederates on the rise

Maryland’s antebellum AG candidate

They don’t even try to hide it:

Meet Michael Peroutka, one of the two candidates on the ballot for Maryland attorney general in the state’s GOP primary today. As TPM alum Cameron Joseph reports for Vice, Peroutka was a board member for the neo-Confederate League of the South until 2014, believes public education is “the 10th plank in the Communist Manifesto,” and at one point he declared that he was “still angry” that Maryland wasn’t allowed to secede from the union during the Civil War.

But don’t go calling Peroutka a neo-Confederate; there’s nothing “neo” about it, thank you very much! “If anything, I want to be just a true Confederate,” he said in 2014.

Even to this day, Peroutka won’t say whether he supports the South seceding from the union, telling Vice only that he has “no comment” on the issue and that it’s up to the Southern states “to self-determine.”

Peroutka’s beaten his establishment-backed primary rival, Jim Shalleck, in fundraising. The former has raised about $50,000 (including a $10,000 loan to himself), the latter a measly $10,000

As Josh Marshall quipped: “when you’re such a hardcore confederate sympathizer you’re running in a state that didn’t even manage to join the confederacy the first time.”

I understand Democrats aren’t supposed to point these things out because it’s helping the Republicans win so don’t tell anyone that I shared this, ok? I don’t want to be blamed* for the fascists winning because I pointed out that they were fascists.

*I’m being facetious, of course. I’m just appalled by all this press saying that Democrats pointing out that these loons are loons are to blame if Republicans love them.