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Month: August 2022

Baby Boxes

Seriously, this medieval practice is the right’s solution to forced childbirth

The assault on modernity continues apace:

To get a clearer look at America’s future landscape as a nation without freedom of choice, carved from the medieval mindset of today’s Supreme Court, it helps to cross an ocean—and a few centuries. Having recently finished a book about the abusive treatment of unwed mothers in Italy in the 1950s and ’60s, and the generational damage that ensued, I feel as if I’ve emerged from a dizzying time collapse with a spectral glimpse of what lies ahead.

In his opinion overturning Roe v. Wade, Justice Samuel Alito cited certain “modern” developments that obviate the need for abortion. Included on his list is “that States have increasingly adopted ‘safe haven’ laws, which generally allow women to drop off babies anonymously.”

The idea behind safe haven laws, which now exist in all 50 states and began in—surprise—Texas in 1999, is to permit a woman to abandon her baby anonymously without fear of criminal prosecution. This type of law is not, in Justice Alito’s words, a “modern development” but a medieval practice, invented in Italy in the thirteenth century and still in place today.As generations of twentieth-century Italian mothers and their children can attest, giving a woman no choice but to anonymously surrender her baby is a route to ruined lives.

The Roman Catholic Church, for moral reasons—especially under the ultraconservative reign of Pope Pius XII during the 1940s and ’50s—and the Italian State, in order to protect male inheritance rights, encouraged anonymous surrender, guaranteeing that birth fathers could just walk away and placing all the responsibility, and blame, upon women. Powerless and terrified, mothers often didn’t understand the relinquishment forms they were made to sign. Yet their children now became wards of the state and were issued birth certificates with fictional last names and placed into the busy machine of domestic and international adoption.

Adopted children in America and Italy describe how falsified documents and sealed birth records hid lifesaving medical information. Stripped of their birth identity—“I don’t remember signing up for the witness protection program,” one adoptee told me—they spent years on hopeless quests to find their birth mothers or to experience bittersweet late-in-life reunions. Using the tools of genetic genealogy, they desperately chase a ticking clock.

Many of the adoptees I spoke with learned during their searches that their mothers had died when they were in their fifties and sixties. Considering the typically long lifespan of Italian women, I wondered whether the trauma of giving up a baby anonymously and the isolation from family and community might have contributed to the medical issues they later suffered.

One of my interview subjects in Italy, the second daughter of a woman forced to surrender her firstborn after a professor raped her, felt certain that the trauma of rape and surrender contributed to her mother’s early death: “My mother let herself be overwhelmed by the events that happened. She couldn’t make choices. I was 10 when she had her first illness. She died when I was 32. Imagine! Twenty-two years of hospitals, diseases, one after another.”

By the late 1970s, a decade that brought legalized birth control and abortion to Italy, the foundling homes finally closed, ending this cruel twentieth-century history. Ironically, however, America’s Supreme Court has dragged us even further back into Italy’s past, suggesting the use of safe haven “baby boxes.”

These boxes are literally just that—a box about the size of a wall oven where a mother can leave her baby. They are copies of another medieval Italian invention, the ruota, the abandonment wheels that were embedded in the windows of foundling homes across Italy. With a turn of the wheel, the infant rotated inside the foundling home—and forever outside the mother’s reach. The woman then rang a bell to alert an attendant that her baby had entered the institution. Hundreds of thousands of babies died from malnutrition and disease under this system, yet the Church had decided that a baptized baby, whatever its foundling home fate, was preferable to life with a sinful mother. Social pressure closed the wheels in the late nineteenth century, but this cruel device survived more than half a millennium after the Middle Ages.

As the past always lives in the present, Italy’s right-to-life movement reintroduced a high-tech version of the ruota in 2006, renaming it the “cradle for life.” And the wheel kept on turning, making its maiden voyage to America in 2016. Safe haven baby boxes have been installed in over 100 firehouses and hospitals across America’s heartland and Southern states whose legislatures have passed safe haven laws. The terrified modern mother stripped of reproductive choices, depicted in safe haven literature hidden by a hoodie, sounds an alarm, as her medieval predecessor once rang a bell, alerting a fireman to take the infant to a social service agency.

To many women, this scenario is one of unimaginable distress and degradation, a new mother so desperate and alone in the world that she hides from public view to deposit like a parcel ready for shipping the baby she has carried in her womb for nine months. In several justices’ worldview, however, the baby boxes are a logical solution to the end of abortion rights. During last December’s oral arguments in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, Justice Amy Coney Barrett questioned why, if a woman can have an abortion at 23 weeks, the state cannot require her to carry the baby for 15 or 16 more weeks and then terminate parental rights at the conclusion. “Why didn’t you address the safe haven laws, and why don’t they matter?” she asked. In other words, Coney Barrett is saying, keep the baby until term, and then relinquish it anonymously—perhaps into a safe haven box. Or as Kate McKinnon memorably put it in her SNL parody of the justice, “Just do the nine and plop.”

Justice Alito added the diminished stigma of unwed motherhood to his matchbox of arguments that set aflame a half-century of legal precedent. Yet as legislatures pass draconian measures to punish women seeking abortions, along with anyone who assists them, how naïve to imagine the old stigmas won’t return. Except today, the shaming will be one social media click away.  

In America, it is not the Catholic Church but the Supreme Court, whose conservative majority are of the Roman Catholic faith, dictating how women should live, while the rest of a divided and seemingly powerless government acquiesces. Whether it’s Pope Pius XII preaching from the pulpit or modern black-robed justices dictating opinions from the bench, the zealous desire of these arbiters to set the moral boundaries of a woman’s life seems to be our inescapable plight. 

Today, three states have trigger laws going into effect banning virtually all abortions. This is what they think makes sense as an alternative.

Well, he didn’t call him “disgusting” elf

So it’s all good.

Trying to out-Trump Trump once again, DeSantis the bully raises the threat level on Dr.Fauci:

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ramped up his Trump-like attacks on outgoing chief White House medical adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci on Wednesday, this time calling for someone to “grab” the 81-year-old infectious disease expert and “chuck him across the Potomac.”

During a stop on his “Keep Florida Free Tour,” DeSantis—often seen as a potential 2024 GOP presidential candidate—raged against Fauci for recently defending his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“I’m just sick of seeing him! I know he says he’s gonna retire—someone needs to grab that little elf and chuck him across the Potomac,” the governor exclaimed to raucous cheers.

DeSantis, who recently debuted a performative tough-guy “Top Gov” campaign ad with himself as “Maverick,” has long taken aim at Fauci to burnish his MAGA credentials.

Last year, for instance, he began hawking “Don’t Fauci My Florida” merch as coronavirus cases spiked in his state. Fauci, meanwhile, has been the target of countless death threats. A man who said he wanted to break every bone in Fauci’s “disgusting elf skull” was recently sentenced to three years in prison.

“Like the governor’s statement… is this question a joke?” Deputy Press Secretary Jeremy Redfern told The Daily Beast when asked about DeSantis’ remarks in light of ongoing threats to Fauci. He further suggested contacting the governor’s campaign if The Daily Beast “really believe this warrants a comment,” as he is “not able to comment on political matters.”

Redfern then tweeted out a screenshot of this reporter’s email with clown and globe emojis for a caption. The campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

They always say these violent insults are “jokes.” But these people are political leaders, not comedians. When they say these things, their brainwashed followers see it as permission to act.

I know that I’m discussing this stuff about Fauci too much, but honestly it freaks me out as much as anything I’ve seen over these last five years.This isn’t just an attack on the man, it’s an attack on science — coming from powerful leaders of the Republican party. The echoes of Cultural Revolution/Cambodian Re-education are strong. That may sound hyperbolic and it probably is. But this character assassination of Fauci, based entirely on bullshit propaganda, is extremely creepy and it suggests that this antediluvian strain is becoming stronger.

By the way:

Your freedoms are at stake

When abortion rights are on the ballot, abortion rights win

Photo via Safe Skipper.

Voters in New York’s Hudson Valley sent a clear messsage in Tuesday’s special election, explains Jill Filipovic for CNN: “when abortion rights are on the ballot, abortion rights win.”

Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro in the moderate, largely rural 19th Congressional District:

The district is one where Joe Biden just barely squeaked out a win in 2020 — the kind of place where you’d expect voters to swing the other way in the midterms. And yet Ryan won with 52% of the vote, to Molinaro’s 48%, to finish out the term of former Congressman Antonio Delgado, who was elevated to New York’s Lieutenant Governor. (Ryan also won the Democratic primary for New York’s newly-drawn 18th congressional district)

I live in the district, and blue signs for both candidates speckle lawns across several counties. One difference, though, is that signs that read “Vote Paul Ryan for Congress” were often next to pink ones that said “CHOICE IS ON THE BALLOT.”

The issue of choice, perhaps coupled with a massive influx of New York City residents into the Catskills and the Hudson Valley over the past two years who have brought their liberal politics with them, seems to have made the difference for Ryan.

“Choice was on the ballot. Freedom was on the ballot, and tonight choice and freedom won. We voted like our democracy was on the line because it is. We upended everything we thought we knew about politics and did it together,” Ryan said in a statement.

“Ryan made his campaign about fundamental values he believed would win even in this politically-mixed region: abortion rights, sensible gun policy and safeguarding democracy,” Filipovic writes. Molinaro tried to make the election a referendum on President Joe Biden.

Early numbers suggest a disproportionate turnout from female voters. According to Tom Bonier, the CEO of TargetSmart, a Democratic political data firm, women make up 52% of voters in NY-19, but cast 58% of early and absentee ballots. That higher female turnout suggests that abortion rights very well may have been a huge motivator in this race.

Josh Kraushaar of Axios sees similarly favorable trends in Florida’s turnout on Tuesday:

In Florida’s gubernatorial primary, more Democrats showed up to vote (1,513,180) than in 2018 (1,509,960). Given that 2018 was a historically favorable year for Democrats and 2022 recently looked like a Democratic wipeout, the similar level of Democratic engagement is surprising.

But as in recent elections, Republican turnout is up as well. Even so:

An Axios analysis found that Democratic primary turnout for governors’ races increased between 2018 and 2022 in five of the eight states holding contested primaries after June, in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision.

Moving up the charts

The economy may still be a dominant issue in 2022, but the NBC News poll from Sunday suggests concern about individual freedoms under attack by Republicans is moving up the charts, as Casey Kasem used to say.

Also:

  • Pew Research Center poll conducted Aug. 1-14 found 56% of voters said the issue of abortion would be “very important” in their midterm decision. That’s up 13 percentage points from Pew’s March survey. The increased interest in abortion was entirely driven by Democratic voters.
  • A new NBC News poll found Democrats closing in on Republican enthusiasm for voting in the midterms, driven by partisans citing abortion as a top issue. Only 38% said they supported the Dobbs decision, while 58% opposed it.
  • Abortion rated as a top issue in last week’s Fox News polls in Arizona and Wisconsin, moving closer to economic concerns.
  • In Arizona, 20% of respondents said inflation was the most important issue in the Senate race, with 16% naming abortion rights. In Wisconsin, 28% named economic concerns as the top issue while abortion came in second at 17%.

National Democrats shy about addressing culture-war issues prefer to run on safe, “kitchen table” themes. (We’ve criticized that plenty here.) Worse, they are traditionally slow to reset their sails to catch changing political winds. Let’s hope they are anxious enough now about their futures (and ours) to see for once which way the wind is blowing.

We cannot let the right wing own the term freedom, especially when their every maneuver is to eliminate and destroy the freedoms of everyone who does not live, love or look like them. — Anat Shenker-Osorio

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Request a copy of For The Win, 4th Edition, my free, countywide get-out-the-vote planning guide for county committees at ForTheWin.us.

Trumpublicans sink deeper into self-parody

Biden’s student debt relief brings out the “Four Yorkshiremen” in Republicans

“this is how some of you folks sound about student loans,” says The Other 98% meme. (h/t SR)

As with any other addiction, or like that movie trope involving quicksand, Trumpublicans haven’t the wits to stop themselves from sinking deeper. Will the majority of voters eventually bury them with the public laughter Donald Trump so viscerally feared?

Alexandra Petri wants to help them along:

DISGUSTING! AWFUL! I have just received word that life is getting marginally better for some people, and I am white-hot with fury! This is the worst thing that could possibly happen! I did not suffer and strive and work my fingers to the bone so that anybody else could have a life that does not involve suffering and striving and the working of fingers to the bone. I demand to see only bones and no fingers!

Sometimes I wake up in the middle of the night thrashing because I have had the nightmare again, the nightmare in which someone else is being spared a small hint of the suffering I endured. The world should not get better! The world should get worse along with me and perish along with me.

Every time anyone’s life improves at all, I personally am insulted. Any time anyone devises a labor-saving device, or passes some kind of weak, soft-hearted law that forecloses the opportunity for a new generation of children to lose fingers in dangerous machinery, I gnash my teeth. This is an affront to everyone who struggled so mightily. To avoid affronting them, we must keep everything just as bad as ever. Put those fingers back into the machines, or our suffering will have been in vain.

You get the idea.

Once upon a time, Republicans sold the fantasy that tax cuts would pay for themselves. Now deficit hawks claim that Biden’s freeing up disposable income for loan-holders to spend into the economy, buy homes, and start families will harm everyone.

Give me an f-ing break,” Democratic strategist Maria Cardona reponded to a Republican commenter wringing his hands over the alleged unfairness of President Biden’s student debt relief announcement on Wednesday.

Biden himself was having none of it when a reporter asked if his action was unfair to those who paid off their loans or never took them.

“Is it fair to people who, in fact, do not own multi-billion-dollar businesses if they see one of these guys getting all the tax breaks? Is that fair? What do you think?” Biden replied and walked out.

Handing out checks to farmers hurt by Trump’s trade war with China raised few complaints from Republicans when it was Dear Leader doing it.

https://twitter.com/SIfill_/status/1562482709305651206?s=20&t=awLo2PEIQDM4aaRDZV7zKg

Petri lampoons Trumpublican complaints about the moral hazard of Biden fulfilling his campaign promise to ease voters’ burdens:

I fought uphill battles and squinted into the night and toiled and burdened myself in the hope that my children, one day, would also get to work exactly that hard, if not harder, and suffer at least as much as I did, and have, if the Lord allows, lives worse than mine. God, please make their lives worse!

You know, the way we had it in the old days!

“Aye, and you try telling that to the young people of today.”

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Request a copy of For The Win, 4th Edition, my free, countywide get-out-the-vote planning guide for county committees at ForTheWin.us.

“They’re mine!!!!”

(No they aren’t…)

David Ignatius of the Washington Post discusses why Trump wanted to keep all those classified documents:

A former Trump administration official who knows him well likens Trump’s retention of classified documents to “a toddler who takes a toy and sees how much the other kid is upset and decides, I’m going to take it anyway. The more someone wants to take it back, the more he wants to keep it.”

Trump’s presidency was a war against what he imagined was a “deep state” of FBI agents, intelligence officials and Justice Department lawyers conspiring to smear him and block his election and reelection. In the words of his lawyers’ motion, these antagonists behaved with “complete disdain and bias against President Trump and his supporters, while they were entrusted with probing the farcical Russian collusion claims.”

A field commander in Trump’s battles against the intelligence community has been a former congressional staffer named Kash Patel, now one of Trump’s representatives in dealing with the National Archives. I profiled Patel’s role as Trump’s advocate against the intelligence agencies last year, and again recently. After bringing Patel to his National Security Council staff in 2019, Trump wanted to make him deputy FBI director, then deputy CIA director.

“Trump also had the idea of making Patel a Special Assistant for White House Oversight — a position that would seek to expose the deep state” in the White House entourage, said Charles Kupperman, a former deputy national security adviser, who was in the room with Trump when he made the proposal in 2019. When Kupperman and White House counsel Pat Cipollone objected, Trump relented, the official said.

A spokeswoman for Patel didn’t respond to a query about Kupperman’s account of the 2019 incident but accused the author of being a “disinformation fountain” for “radical-left politicians in D.C.”

Trump’s notion of supreme personal power — his document narcissism — might have caught up with him in the Mar-a-Lago search. His problem isn’t simply with the Biden Justice Department, but with informants who are presumably within his own circle. U.S. Magistrate Judge Bruce E. Reinhart, who granted the warrant, made that clear in his order delaying a final judgment about unsealing the affidavit that accompanied the warrant.

“I agree with the Government that the Affidavit ‘contains, among other critically important and detailed investigative facts: highly sensitive information about witnesses, including witnesses interviewed by the government,’” Reinhart wrote. Notably, he said that revealing details could “impede the ongoing investigation through obstruction of justice and witness intimidation or retaliation.” He also cited obstruction as “one of the statutes for which I found probable cause” in authorizing the search.

No wonder Trump’s lawyers filed a motion designed to slow things down, portraying the case as a political vendetta and aimed at slowing the review of documents. They simply ignored the gravity of the charges — calling the search “a shockingly aggressive move” against “the clear frontrunner” in 2024, “should he decide to run.”

Whatever those documents contain, Reinhart shared Justice’s worry that they weren’t being given back promptly or securely held.

I think we also need to worry that Trump’s “war with the deep state” may have motivated him to take documents that would further that war. Yes, he is like a toddler and he might just be having a temper tantrum. But he is also a vengeful monster who could easily have thought it was a good idea to collect information that he believed might harm the intelligence community or certain individuals without regard to how it would harm actual humans. He cares nothing for actual humans.

Assuming that Trump just wanted some mementos or planned to share them at cocktail parties with friends, while disturbing in its own right and definitely illegal, is a mistake. He may very well have much more nefarious motives. This man is corrupt through and through and his desire for revenge and willingness to make a buck or achieve power by any means necessary has been well demonstrated.

“The Barr memo — which reads like a defense lawyer’s brief”

Bill Barr and his boys found that Trump’s words didn’t mean what we all know they meant

The NY Times Charlie Savage lays it out:

BREAKING: DOJ has released the full memo to then Attorney General Bill Barr analyzing why Trump should not be charged with obstruction-of-justice based on the Mueller report. DOJ had fought but lost a @CREWcrew FOIA lawsuit seeking this disclosure.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/memorandum-to-barr-re-mueller-report-review/244f6c5240fa4804/full.pdf

Vol II of the Mueller report detailed numerous episode raising potential obstruction of justice concerns. Barr purported to clear Trump of all of them, but never publicly discussed many of them. Here are some of the most important ones from the report:

An overarching premise is that Mueller did not find evidence sufficient to charge Trump with conspiring with Russia, so there was no underlying crime. (It does not raise the possibility that Mueller failed to get that evidence because his investigation was obstructed.)

The Mueller report strongly suggested that the Mueller team thought Trump dangling a pardon at Manafort to induce him not to cooperate with their investigation met the necessary elements of obstruction.

The Barr memo — which reads like a defense lawyer’s brief — never mentions pardon dangling and characterizes Trump as merely praising or condemning witnesses based on whether they cooperated with investigators.

The memo argues for interpreting this as Trump not wanting Manafort etc to make up false evidence against him. It again bolsters that by characterizing Mueller’s failure to obtain sufficient evidence to charge any conspiracy with Russia as meaning there was none.

Another significant episode was Trump pressuring McGahn to publicly lie and write a memo for the file falsely denying that Trump had pushed him to fire Mueller, both of which McGahn refused to do.

The memo characterizes McGahn’s memory of this episode as “ambiguous” and since Trump denied it, says it could not be proved beyond a reasonable doubt.

When McGahn testified under oath about that episode before Congress in 2017, he backed the Mueller report’s account as accurate.

It also argues it wasn’t obstruction when Trump tried to get McGahn to write a memo denying the attempted firing bc McGahn had already told Mueller about it. It doesn’t address that a memo contradicting his testimony would undermine his ability to be a witness in any trial.

As for the attempted firing of Mueller itself….

The memo stresses that Trump’s aides refused to carry out his orders. While it acknowledges that an unsuccessful attempt to commit a crime is still a criminal act, it argues that since Trump backed down prosecutors could not prove his intent beyond a reasonable doubt.

The memo uses the same rationale to dispose of Trump’s unsuccessful attempts to get aides to curtail or gut the Russia investigation, which it conflated with his unsuccessful attempt to have Mueller fired.

As for urging Comey to go easy on Flynn and firing Comey, the memo argues there are explanations for both (e.g., frustration that Comey wouldn’t say publicly what he was saying privately) that do not rise to obstruction. The Mueller report also characterized those as murkier.

Originally tweeted by Charlie Savage (@charlie_savage) on August 24, 2022.

This is the one that gets me:

The Barr memo — which reads like a defense lawyer’s brief — never mentions pardon dangling and characterizes Trump as merely praising or condemning witnesses based on whether they cooperated with investigators.

The memo argues for interpreting this as Trump not wanting Manafort etc to make up false evidence against him. It again bolsters that by characterizing Mueller’s failure to obtain sufficient evidence to charge any conspiracy with Russia as meaning there was none.

That they characterize his angry tweets about people “flipping” as actually desiring that people cooperate with law enforcement is so daft as to be embarrassing. Donald Trump’s two favorite movies are “Goodfellas” and “The Godfather.” His mentor Roy Cohn is best know for working for Joseph McCarthy and mobsters  Tony SalernoCarmine GalanteJohn Gotti and Mario Gigante. He tweeted that anyone who cooperated was a “rat”

Listen to this explanation of “flipping.” That two of the top law enforcement people in the land took his word for it, that he really just meant that people were lying about him is simply stunning.

They say in the memo that if anyone read the Mueller report they would see that Trump obstructed justice. But they concluded that actually meant that they needed to get out in front of it so that people didn’t think that. So much for the notion that a Special Counsel meant anything at all.

Seriously. Who are these people? Are they happy with themselves today, seeing what that monster did on January 6th? Someone should ask them.

America’s top snake oil salesman is running for the Senate

And he helped the Trump White House sell its snake oil too

Key moments in Trump’s 2020 hydroxychloroquine saga, revealed in a new subcommittee report.

Oh, just you know, the most popular TV news channel in the US collaborating with the White House to promote an unproven drug.

Debbie Birx corresponding with Dr. Oz, seeming to position herself wherever it might be beneficial to her career. Compare her responses with Fauci’s ‘follow the science’ stance.

Birx:

Fauci:

Fauci seems to have paid dearly for truth-telling. Hatfill launches a campaign to discredit him, allegedly under orders from Trump.

WH advisor Steven Hatfill pushes to test hydroxycholoroquine on people imprisoned at jails with Covid outbreaks because “THE TEST SUBJECTS ARE NOT GOING ANYWHERE.” smh.

When that didn’t work, White House enlists support from the “Association of American Physicians and Surgeons.” Sounds legit? Um…voting hypnosis?

Originally tweeted by Amy Maxmen, PhD (@amymaxmen) on August 24, 2022.

This is why the braying about Trump’s allegedly successful presidency is so infuriating. It was terrible from start to finish,of course, but the final year was a nightmare largely because of stuff like this. When they were piling up bodies in refrigerator trucks, these monsters were pushing snake oil cures and convincing people that the mitigation efforts and then the vaccines were useless. And now they are persecuting Dr. Fauci for telling the truth. It’s heinous.

The GOPers freak about about student loan relief

But they had nothing to say when Trump gave billions to farmers.

Remember when Trump spent billions to compensate farmers for the losses they suffered from his ill-thought out tariffs?

https://twitter.com/SIfill_/status/1562498423345262594

And remember, it was all his doing. He put through those ridiculous tariffs to “punish” China and ended up punishing Americans instead. Then he just opened the spigot and showered cash on the farmers to make up for it. GOPers happily went along. So they can shut their pieholes about Biden fulfilling his promise to help Americans with their student loans.

This article by Michael Hilzik of the LA Times explains why their arguments are, as usual, full of it:

A bill filed by Republican members of Congress Elise Stefanik of New York, Patrick McHenry of North Carolina and Jason Smith of Missouri cites canceling student debt as among “harmful economic policies” by the Biden administration that have “exacerbated inflation and led to skyrocketing prices.”

I’ve written about the fatuous arguments against student debt relief before. The inflation angle is relatively new, however, presumably because inflation is top of mind for voters as we approach the midterm elections. It’s natural, in a way, for opponents of debt relief to bootstrap this kitchen table issue to their long record of opposition.

As it happens, however, they’re wrong. Canceling student debt, even at higher levels, won’t drive inflation. The critics are using faulty math to make their point.

“Student debt cancellation will increase the wealth of millions of Americans who need it the most and promote racial equity — all without increasing inflation,” according to Mike Konczal and Alí Bustamante of the Roosevelt Institute, who expertly refuted the CRFB’s analysis the day after it appeared.

Before getting into the economics of the issue, a few words of context.

Biden’s deadline actually applies to only a portion of student debt policy: the forbearance that has been granted borrowers since March 2020 in recognition of the burdens of the pandemic.

Since then, borrowers with federally backed loans (which is more than 90% of the indebtedness ) haven’t had to make payments, and interest hasn’t accrued on unpaid balances in that time.

Under current policy, the payment freeze on federally funded student loans will end Aug. 31. Biden could extend it by executive order; the Washington consensus is that he will do so, perhaps to the end of this year so payments won’t have to resume prior to the elections.

The other aspect concerns canceling student loans. For many of the 45 million borrowers currently owing a total of about $1.8 trillion today, this issue is far more consequential.

Biden pledged during his presidential campaign to forgive $10,000 per borrower. Progressives such as Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) have advocated canceling $50,000. Others support canceling full balances for some middle- and low-income borrowers. That decision doesn’t have to be made immediately, though some Democratic advocates think the policy would be favored by Democratic voters in November.

Some traditional arguments against student debt relief can be easily dismissed. One is that forgiving debt today would be unfair to borrowers who shouldered the sacrifice of paying off their loans. As I wrote in the past, this is the argument from pure selfishness and a formula for permanent governmental paralysis.

It’s a favorite among conservatives and those whose comfortable affluence makes them insensitive to the burdens of others. In 2020, responding to a survey of economists conducted that year by the University of Chicago, David Autor of MIT commented, “Alongside my kids’ student loans, I’d like the government to pay off my mortgage. If the latter idea shocks you, the first one should too.”

The truth, of course, is that in a healthy society government policy moves ahead by taking note of existing inequities and striving to address them. Following the implications of the “I paid, why shouldn’t you” camp to their natural conclusion means that we wouldn’t have Social Security, Medicare or the Affordable Care Act today.

The unfairness argument also overlooks the generations of college students whose education was financed by taxpayers to a far greater extent than today. Tuition at the University of California, for example, was free to state residents from its founding in the 1860s until 1970.

UC tuition today is $13,104 per year for residents and $44,130 for nonresidents, and constitutes what the UC says is its “largest single source of core operating funds.” Should today’s tuition-burdened students demand back pay from those pre-1970 enrollees?

Another common argument is that debt cancellation would be regressive — that is, it would disproportionately benefit the rich. The heart of this argument is that wealthier households carry more debt than low-income households, so they would gain more from reducing their balances.

But that’s math-driven misconception. The truth is that the student debt burden falls much heavier on lower-income borrowers than the affluent.

Contrasting borrowers in the poorest 10% of income earners with those in the richest 10%, Laura Beamer and Eduard Nilaj of the Jain Family Institute showed that although “higher-income groups experience higher median debt burdens ($23,160 for the richest decile and $16,094 for the lowest-income decile), this difference is small compared to the difference in median incomes ($60,193 for the richest decile and $16,770 for the lowest-income decile).”

Even canceling $10,000 in debt would be a greater boon for lower-income borrowers than the rich. Among borrowers with $20,000 to $40,000 in income, 234,000 carry balances below $15,000, Beamer and Nilaj calculated. About 57% of borrowers in that income range have balances of less than $20,000, compared with 43% of those with incomes of $75,000 or more.

Nor is there any doubt that debt cancellation would have a strong impact on racial and ethnic economic inequality. About 75% of Black borrowers have current loan balances greater than the original loans, due mostly to difficulty in making repayments, compared with 50% of white borrowers.

Once repayments resume, the New York Federal Reserve Bank reported in April, “lower-income, less educated, non-white, female and middle-aged borrowers will struggle more in making minimum payments and in remaining current.”

That brings us back to the newest wrinkle in the anti-relief argument: That debt relief will be inflationary and add to the deficit.

The CRFB is perhaps the most ferocious deficit scold among conservative think tanks in Washington. It’s a full-spectrum fiscal critic. To its credit, it was critical of the GOP’s massive tax cut for the rich in 2017, but it has also pursued benefit cuts in Social Security and Medicare, a reflection of the long patronage of the late hedge fund billionaire Pete Peterson, who conducted a long campaign to shrink those programs.

The CRFB analysis of student debt relief asserts, “Simply extending the current repayment pause through the end of the year would cost $20 billion — equivalent to the total deficit reduction from the first six years of the IRA…. Canceling $10,000 per person of student debt for households making below $300,000 a year would cost roughly $230 billion.”

Put these two options together, the group states, and “these policies would consume nearly 10 years of deficit reduction from the Inflation Reduction Act.” Its analysis further states that “debt cancellation would boost near-term inflation far more than the IRA will lower it. A $10,000 cancellation, according to the CRFB, could add 0.15 percentage points to the inflation rate “up front and create additional inflationary pressure over time.”

Konczal and Bustamante found some suspect math in this reasoning — specifically the comparison of apples to oranges by applying formal federal budget rules instead of real-world accounting.

Under the formal rules for credit programs, cancellation of debts must be treated as if the forgone interest and principal payments all occur immediately, in year one, when in fact they’re spread over the life of the loan. The Inflation Reduction Act, similarly, is treated as if all its inflation effect occurs in the first 10 years, when it’s also spread over two decades or more.

The CRFB’s analysis therefore overstates the effect of debt cancellation on the IRA’s inflation reduction. This flaw should be obvious. Spread over the decades-long terms of student loans, the forgone debt payments come to about $13 billion a year.

“It’s about allowing borrowers to keep $13 billion a year in income,” Bustamante told me. “That comes to about 0.08% of total personal consumption.” For an economy with about $16.5 trillion in annual personal spending, $13 billion is “insignificant when it comes to inflationary pressure.”

Nor is there any evidence that people would go out and spend that money, creating inflationary demand. The evidence from more than two years of debt forbearance thus far is that borrowers have used it to improve their household balance sheets, paying off high-rate credit card debt and saving the rest.

That’s not even to mention what has been driving inflation over the last year. It’s not demand-side personal consumption, but constraints such as supply-chain disruptions and restricted supplies of oil. Both factors have decreased in recent months, which is why the month-over-month inflation rate in July fell to 0.0%. (The Federal Reserve may be making the same mistake in its inflation-fighting campaign.)

The power of inflation as a scare word just now must explain the rhetoric employed by Stefanik, McHenry and Smith when they introduced their attack on debt relief in July.

Stefanik represents the sixth-poorest congressional district of New York’s 31, with a median income of $57,320. McHenry’s is the fifth-poorest in North Carolina, with a median income of $53,189. Smith’s is the poorest in Missouri and the 22nd-poorest of all the 435 districts represented by fully voting members.

That suggests that their own constituents would be in line for the most help from student loan forbearance and cancellation, as well as help dealing with prices at the pump and the supermarket. In this case as in many others, we must ask who these politicians are working for — certainly not the people who elected them.

Clearly, student debt relief will be a wealth-producing, economy-growing initiative. It won’t create unfairness, but redress economic injustice that has been building for decades. Biden’s proper course should be obvious.

He did it and it will help real people in their real lives. That’s what Democrats say they stand for and they are delivering.

Let’s go Dark Brandon!

Sounds good to me

This piece by JV Last should give you a lift today:

What Are People Going To Complain About Now?

Joe Biden is still good at politics. We’ve talked about this before, but I just want to restate a summary of the Biden administration’s first 20 months:

Passed the American Rescue Plan.
Fixed the vaccine rollout and gotten us to a post-COVID normalcy.
Passed a bipartisan infrastructure bill.
Passed a bipartisan CHIPS act to boost domestic semiconductor production, which is important both for economics and national security.
Passed a modest, bipartisan gun reform law.
Nominated an overwhelmingly popular and historically important judge to the SCOTUS.
Killed Ayman al-Zawahiri.
Kept job creation booming. (Unemployment is 3.5 percent.)
Gotten the Respect for Marriage Act, which will codify same-sex marriage to take it out of the hands of Clarence Thomas, to the 1-yard line.
Passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which will control prescription drug costs, fix the ACA’s subsidy cliff, and make healthcare more affordable for seniors, in addition to helping the environment.
Is six months into managing the most successful American response to a foreign policy crisis in (at least) two generations.

Oh, and then there’s this:

That last is a bit of a joke, but sort of true nonetheless. And I would add today’s announcement of student loan relief which I would guess Last, a former Republican Never Trumper, thinks is a mistake. It is not. It is a vital fulfillment of a promise.

Am I leaving out some debits from the other side of the ledger? Yes. As just a few examples: The Afghanistan withdrawal may be done, but will always be shameful. Inflation is slowing, but still a problem. Gas prices are declining, but are still high.

The Afghanistan withdrawal was not shameful. It was a terrible necessity. The rest is correct.

But I’m also leaving out some of the intangible good stuff.

Joe Biden is not in your face pronouncing on every matter under the sun. You could, if you wanted, go weeks without seeing or hearing him.

When the administration makes mistakes, they are not based on presidential impulses.

Policy is not being made by 1:00 am tweet.

The president is not engaging in the culture war and antagonizing authoritarian-leaning Republicans.

There are no scandals emanating from the executive branch.

Let me throw two ideas at you:

(1) Biden has had the most successful legislative session of any first-term president in living memory. He was not transformative. He did not pass one giant, course-altering bill. Instead, he passed a bunch of modest bills, all of which were aligned with popular sentiment and most of which had bipartisan support.

(2) Democrats may do okay in the midterms. Not great. They could lose a Senate seat. Or they could stay at par or maybe even pick up a seat. In the House they could lose in the neighborhood of 30 seats, and control of the House. But compared with first-term midterm elections in the recent past, this is shaping up to be the best showing for a president’s party since George W. Bush’s 2002 midterm, which was driven almost entirely by the aftershocks of 9/11.

Just as an objective matter: How could anyone ask for more?

Biden hasn’t been perfect. There have been mistakes and errors of judgment already and there will be more of them in the offing.

But net-net we’re living in something close to the best-case scenario that reasonable Americans hoped for in January of 2021.

The headwinds he’s faced have been significantly, not the least of which is a super closely divided congress filled with obstructionist Republicans. It’s a miracle the Democrats have gotten anything done at all.

Trusted voices

… not so trusted

During the pandemic, there was a lot of discussion about the use of “trusted voices” to persuade people to get vaccinated against COVID-19. This is apparently a well-known concept in the field of public health because it’s often difficult to get people to change behaviors or accept unfamiliar interventions. You’ll recall that it was often advised that people speak to their family doctors if they had questions since surveys show that people trust them to tell the truth. Health care organizations also advised outreach to faith leaders, particularly in communities of color, since many “will only trust voices, leaders, and organizations that have consistently served them, and many of those voices are found in their places of worship.” Farmers were recruited in rural areas because they know about vaccinations and “herd immunity.”

This makes sense. There is a lot of information floating around and it’s logical to seek out someone you deem to be credible to help you understand the situation. Unfortunately, there is so little respect for people in public life these days that they have to work very hard to persuade the citizenry that they can be trusted at all. Pew Research did polling on this issue back in 2019 and elected officials were are the very bottom of the list of leadership groups, below business leaders and (gasp) journalists. At that time, pre-pandemic, scientists were at the top of the list but I suspect they have slipped quite a bit since then. In fact, the entire list, which included the military, police, public school principals, religious leaders and college professors, has probably declined since then. Trust is not in great supply in American society at the moment.

There are many reasons for this and it’s been coming on for decades, but the last few years with the mendacious Donald Trump being at the center of our politics has made it exponentially worse. Take, for example, the treatment of Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of infectious disease at the National Institute of Health. Formerly one of the most highly respected medical scientists in the world, recipient of countless awards including the presidential medal of freedom, Fauci would once have been seen as a trusted voice to whom the nation turned for leadership when we were hit with the COVID pandemic. For many, he was and still is. But for tens of millions of Americans, he is seen as a mass murderer, based on sheer propaganda. 

Here’s Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green speaking about Fauci after he announced his retirement this week:

Granted, Green is a far-right provocateur. But she is not alone. Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana, a Republican, among many others, is promising to haul him before GOP tribunals if the Republicans win the November election.

It’s all performative nonsense stemming from the right-wing media’s insistence on pushing snake oil cures so they could pretend the pandemic was over (to help Donald Trump get re-elected) and Fauci had the temerity to follow the science instead. They have since worked up a massive conspiracy theory that he worked with the Chinese government to create COVID and unleash it on the world, for reasons that remain obscure. The campaign of character assassination against this man is downright horrifying.

For those same people on the right, Donald Trump is considered the ultimate trusted voice and Fox News is just as trusted as Trump. (After all, they were the ones who managed to persuade the Republican base that wearing masks and getting vaccinated were intrusions on people’s God-given freedom, even when hundreds of thousands of them were dropping dead.) It’s important to understand this as we anticipate how the latest scandalous Trump legal problems might unfold.

One of the most impressive aspects of the January 6 committee hearings earlier this summer was the use of Republican members of Trump’s inner circle to tell the story of his attempts to overturn the election and obstruct the peaceful transfer of power. To Trump’s adversaries and opponents, these people were a mixed bag that included former Trump loyalists who were compelled to tell the truth about the corrupt boss they had loyally served. And I think it was assumed that for some Trump supporters these people might be seen as trusted voices because of their previous devotion to the Dear Leader. There were staffers and former Cabinet members, some of whom were quite well known as faithful Trump agents, such as former Attorney General William Barr, who could not be portrayed as Democratic dupes, giving evidence that Trump simply refused to accept the truth and went to bizarre lengths to deny it. Surely, people would have to realize that this steadfast coterie must be telling the truth. But they don’t. They believe that every last one of them is a liar. No amount of previous fidelity to the party or the cause counts for anything.

Trump knows what he has done and he knows that his closest associates from the White House and now at Mar-a-Lago are cooperating with both his political adversaries and the law

Perhaps the best example of this is Liz Cheney, hardcore conservative to the bone, member of the House leadership and daughter of a GOP icon, who might have been expected to make some Republicans reassess their belief in Donald Trump when she sacrificed her seat and jeopardized her future to speak truth to power. But she is not only not a trusted voice, she is a pariah.

The Washington Post’s Greg Sargent pointed out this week that the Mar-a-Lago National Archives scandal is likewise the result of Trump insiders being compelled to tell the truth about his strange behaviors regarding these stolen classified documents. The reporting and evidence show that the FBI has been interviewing witnesses whose revelations helped trigger the subpoenas and search warrant. Trump denies it all, and once again, his followers believe him over all the evidence.

Trump’s supporters’ stalwart loyalty propels the Republican establishment to go along. They know their voices are only trusted if they conform to what Trump is saying. There is only Trump’s word — and his word is law.

The only voice he can trust is the one in his head telling him to keep dancing as fast as he can. It must be exhausting.

Sure, he’s gleefully collecting money from the small donors who love to give the billionaire their hard-earned cash. And he’s pursuing his usual strategy of flooding the zone with nonsense and staying in the news which he believes is a key to his success. But Trump knows what he has done and he knows that his closest associates from the White House and now at Mar-a-Lago are cooperating with both his political adversaries and the law. In the latter case, he has no idea who they are so everyone must be a suspect, even his own family. The only voice he can trust is the one in his head telling him to keep dancing as fast as he can. It must be exhausting.