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Month: August 2022

Stand by for news

As Paul Harvey once said

Just when Biden makes his announcement is not clear, so….

New York Times:

President Biden will announce a decision on Wednesday about his plans for student loan debt relief, a highly anticipated moment that could affect about 45 million borrowers nationwide, according to people familiar with the matter.

Although details of the plan were still being finalized, White House aides have said Mr. Biden was weighing a targeted plan that would provide $10,000 of debt relief for borrowers who make below a certain level of income.

Mr. Biden also is expected to extend a pause on loan payments for all borrowers, a Trump-era program that has been in effect since the start of the pandemic.

Axios:

Driving the news: White House officials have told congressional allies that the president plans to cancel $10,000 in debt for many Americans, with an announcement expected today, according to people familiar with the matter.

    • Officials also expect Biden to extend the moratorium on loan repayments, which then-President Trump paused in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, until the end of the year.
    • Congressional elections are ten weeks away, and Biden is looking to motivate young, progressive voters.
    • Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer spoke with Biden Tuesday night and urged him to cancel as much student loan debt as he can, according to a Democrat familiar with the call.
    • White House officials declined to comment on Biden’s plans before he announces them.

Associated Press:

If it survives legal challenges that are almost certain to come, Biden’s plan could offer a windfall to a swath of the nation in the run-up to this fall’s midterm elections. More than 43 million owe a combined $1.6 trillion in federal student debt, with almost a third owing less than $10,000, according to federal data.

Still, the action is unlikely to thrill any of the factions that have been jostling for influence as Biden weighs how much to cancel and for whom.

So it’s wait and see.

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Request a copy of For The Win, 4th Edition, my free, countywide get-out-the-vote planning guide for county committees at ForTheWin.us.

Whose change? Their change!

Secrecy works better for modern royals

Poveglia Codex, a hierarchy of demons from “Evil.”

From the Illuminati to the Knights Templar to the Freemasons, the lore of secret societies has fascinated men and endured for centuries. Propping up the legends these days are actual societies working, if not in the shadows, semi-shrouded from public notice to affect changes to their elite members’ benefit. Often quite well-funded, they operate outside of, parallel to, and beyond the control of democratic institutions.

The New York Times reported on Monday that a $1.6 billion infusion of dark-money cash from a little-known manufacturing billionaire will boost conservative causes for years to come:

The source of the money was Barre Seid, an electronics manufacturing mogul, and the donation is among the largest — if not the largest — single contributions ever made to a politically focused nonprofit. The beneficiary is a new political group controlled by Leonard A. Leo, an activist who has used his connections to Republican donors and politicians to help engineer the conservative dominance of the Supreme Court and to finance battles over abortion rightsvoting rules and climate change policy.

Rick Hasen and Dahlia Lithwick examine how Leo has “created an interconnected series of institutions and firms designed to fundamentally reshape the American judiciary and in turn American society.”

The pair explain (Salon):

The success of Leo’s empire has long depended upon compartmentalizing and bootstrapping. It begins with the Federalist Society, an idea factory and conservative farm team which Leo led for a long time and where he continues to exert influence. He remains co-Chairman of its board of directors. The Federalist Society—which styled itself a “debate society” long after it ceased to be anything of the sort—has been the incubator for conservative ideas championed by the late Justice Antonin Scalia and others to create jurisprudential theories such as originalism and textualism that, at least in the hands of ideologically conservative people, often leads to deeply conservative results. Even though the organization’s leadership has been deeply conservative if not reactionary, it maintains that it is simply a neutral forum for airing competing ideas. This ostensible neutrality provides cover so that sitting judges and Supreme Court Justices can speak at Federalist Society events and use the network to recruit judicial clerks who can come into the pipeline to help further conservative ideas ever without running afoul of rules barring judges from engaging in partisan political activities. It’s also a showcase to vet and prep future judges.

But an idea factory alone would not have been enough to make fundamental changes in society. Which is why Leo also has run an extensive political operation to elevate conservative judges and justices onto the bench and to block liberal nominees whenever possible. This includes the organization that used to be known as the “Judicial Crisis Network” (now called the Concord Fund) headed by former Clarence Thomas clerk Carrie Severino. The Concord Fund runs advertising and essentially operates as a political entity that, among other things, defends FedSoc judicial nominees such as Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett. The same operation, which does not disclose its donors, also uses its platform to successfully oppose Democratic appointees such as Merrick Garland, whom Barack Obama nominated to fill Justice Scalia’s Supreme Court seat after Scalia’s death, and whose nomination was successfully scuttled.

Preserving federal regulations that prevent disclosure of donors is key to the fundraising for such groups as Leo’s Marble Freedom Trust. Secrecy allows it “wide latitude to spend directly on elections as well as on ideological projects such as funding issue-advocacy groups, think tanks, universities, religious institutions and organizing efforts,” Pro Publica reported this week:

The group’s name does not appear in any public database of business, tax or securities records. The Marble Freedom Trust is organized for legal purposes as a trust, rather than as a corporation. That means it did not have to publicly disclose basic details like its name, directors and address.

The trust was formed in Utah. Its address is a house in North Salt Lake owned by Tyler Green, a lawyer who clerked for Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. Green is listed in the trust’s tax return as an administrative trustee. The donation does not appear to violate any laws.

Leo’s flush, interconnected network of organizations has a range of conservative projects that, like the Koch network, are neither well-publicized or well known. And that’s how they like it.

Hasen and Lithwick continue:

But Leonard Leo isn’t just hellbent on reshaping the federal judiciary. His fingerprints (and the obligatory dollar signs) are all over state court races, too. One of Leo’s dark money groups, the one formerly known as the Judicial Crisis Network reportedly “has given RSLC at least $5.24 million since 2014, when RSLC launched what it calls the ‘Judicial Fairness Initiative’ (JFI) to spend money in state judicial elections. According to its own site, by launching JFI, ‘RSLC became the only national political organization focused exclusively on the electoral process of judicial branches at the state level.’” These efforts will fundamentally reshape state judicial races by infusing them with unusual levels of cash. The recipients of these funds will help advance the same causes pushed by Leo’s federal judges.

Here’s where the bootstrapping comes in. The very same conservative judiciary that Leo helped create has been central to crafting new legal rules which help elect more Republicans to office. Cases like Citizens United and Speech Now have opened the floodgates to fund large outside political groups such as Super PACs. Cases like Americans for Prosperity Foundation v. Bonta are making it easier for that large money to be contributed anonymously or through entities that can mask the identity of those who are pulling the strings, providing an easier path to influence without giving voters valuable information about who is trying to influence them and elected officials.

Plus, voting rights cases such as Shelby County and Brnovich v. DNC have seriously weakened the protection for minority voters under the Voting Rights Act, providing the path for white Republicans to gain ever more influence. The upcoming Milligan v. Merrill case that the Supreme Court will hear this term threatens to further weaken minority voting power in the redistricting process. Leo’s organizations seed the judiciary with jurists who advance the very theories that undermine core democratic principles from voting rights to financial disclosure rules. As doom loops go, it’s a successful operation in making sure that minorities have fewer and fewer protections while judges arrogate to themselves power to say more and more.

Election law changes are “just a means to an end.” Besides the Dobbs decision, putting Christian prayer back into public schools and reinforcing anti-LGBTQ discrimination, the goal “is, and has always has been, to ensure that wildly unpopular ideas and policies can be put into effect by a life-tenured judicial branch that represents a well-funded conservative minority.” Ideas and policies that do not reflect broad public sentiment and are in fact resistent to it.

“For ye have the poor always with you,” Jesus said. The rich as well, he did not add, although his views on them are well known. Feudalism may be dead, but its legacy, like that of American slavery, lives on. There will always be a wealthy elite working to secure more for themselves and to keep “lessers” from sharing in it. Their castles no longer feature moats and parapets. They no longer launch wars in which peasants shed blood to expand their lords’ holdings. They’ve learned that discretion is more effective in the age of nation states and international finance. Democracy is a tool modern royals manipulate, another opiate for controlling the hoi polloi. It is an affectation maintained for appearance’s sake, not a principle of shared power to be defended. Until that great day when their control is so complete that they no longer require secrecy.

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Request a copy of For The Win, 4th Edition, my free, countywide get-out-the-vote planning guide for county committees at ForTheWin.us.

I’m so old that I remember when GOPers extolled the virtue of “local control”

Of course we always knew it was BS.

Salon reports:

Progressives are sounding the alarm about the lengths to which GOP officials appear willing to go to advance their deeply unpopular and reactionary agenda after Louisiana’s State Bond Commission, at the urging of right-wing Attorney General Jeff Landry, once again denied flood prevention resources to New Orleans due to the city’s opposition to the state’s new abortion ban.

As CNN reported Saturday, last week marked the second time in as many months that the panel rejected financing for a $39 million planning and infrastructure project designed to protect the residents of Orleans Parish from storm-induced floodwaters, which are projected to intensify in the coming years as a result of the fossil fuel-driven climate crisis.

statement shared on Landry’s official Facebook page and video from Thursday’s bond commission meeting make clear that the Republican attorney general, who can vote on the panel or designate a representative from his office to vote on his behalf, has been imploring his colleagues to withhold credit in a bid to force city officials to comply with the state’s assault on reproductive freedom.

https://twitter.com/SIfill_/status/1561346775230959617?s=20&t=YAAx7ANxNRhs3heQsXcv9w

Trump was widely admired among his supporters for using his power to manipulate the election in his favor. They think that’s just common sense. So I would not expect there to be a backlash in the state outside of New Orleans.They will end up capitulating because flood prevention is existential. And women will die.

Sick, sick, sick

Everyone knows how high the stakes are for the midterms. They are going to use the House for nothing but show trials. Here’s the most grotesque of all of them:

It isn’t a joke and she isn’t just another gadfly. This faction will be in charge. And for all the times Trump has shrilly screamed “Witchhunt!!!” over the past few years, this is the real thing. Marge is spreading a despicable lie that Dr. Fauci created COVID killing millions of people around the world, as if he is Lucifer himself. It might as well be Salem in 1692.

Told ya so

Liz Cheney should not run for president

Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., has vowed to do “whatever it takes to ensure Donald Trump is never again anywhere near the Oval Office” — including possibly embarking on a White House bid of her own.

“It is something that I am thinking about,” Cheney said last week.

Yet a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that if Cheney were to run for president as an independent in 2024, she could actually do the opposite.

She could single-handedly swing the election to Trump.

The survey of 1,563 U.S. adults was conducted from Aug. 18 to 22 — immediately after Cheney lost last Tuesday’s Wyoming House primary to a Trump-backed challenger by nearly 40 percentage points.

It found that if the 2024 election were held today — and if it were a one-on-one rematch between President Biden and Trump — Biden would lead by 4 points among registered voters, 46% to 42%.

But in a three-way race with Cheney on the ballot as an independent, Trump would suddenly vault to an 8-point lead over Biden, 40% to 32%.

In that scenario, Cheney trails with just 11% of the vote. The problem for Biden is that nearly all of Cheney’s votes come at his expense — and there are enough of them, in theory, to put Trump over the top.

I wrote about this earlier this week and I predicted that Democrats would vote for her.

The Republican party does not have a monopoly on stupidity.

Trump and his cronies think the Mar-a-lago search is a big boon

Bush’s Brain begs to differ

Not that Karl Rove is some kind of oracle. His reputation is overhyped. But I think he’s right about this:

Longtime Republican strategist Karl Rove said Monday that former President Donald Trump’s ongoing legal problems are “dampening Republican enthusiasm” as the nation heads toward the midterm elections.

The more we talk about the “ boxes of material at Mar-a-Lago” the FBI seized earlier this month “and the less that we talk about the problems that we face as a country here and now, the better off the Democrats are,” Rove told Fox News host Martha MacCallum. “It raises their enthusiasm; dampens the Republican enthusiasm.”

Rove said Trump’s problems are causing a “tightening” in races, making some of them more competitive for Democrats. “The question is … where it’s going to be on Election Day?” he asked.

The GOP would be “better off” if President Joe Biden was in the news instead of Trump, Rove continued. “But that’s not where we’ve been.”

Trump think the opposite, believing that as long as he is in the news his cult will gather and do whatever he says. They might. But they are not a majority. There are Republicans and GOP leaning Independents who may not be quite as excited as the true believers.

A few right wing outliers try to tell the truth

Just a few…

Every once in a while you see an article in right wing media that makes you wonder if there might be some chance that democracy isn’t completely dead in the Republican Party. This is Jay Nordlinger in the National Review:

An article in Politico is headed “DeSantis won’t say if he thinks 2020 was rigged. But he’s campaigning for Republicans who do.” Who are those Republicans? The roster includes Kari Lake in Arizona, Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania, and J.D. Vance in Ohio.

Was the 2020 election, in fact, rigged? Did the Democrats steal the election from President Trump? Is Joe Biden an illegitimate president? These are burning questions — not trivial ones. The whole country is roiled by them. The belief that the Democrats stole the election led to a physical attack on the U.S. Congress — the worst attack on our capitol since the War of 1812.

And that attack, early in our republic, was carried out by a foreign power, not by homegrown Americans.

In my view, every politician should answer. Answer the questions that are roiling our country. I think it’s especially incumbent on Republican politicians to answer them, because it’s Republican voters who have swallowed the election lie. Have been fed it.

There is an old expression: to “speak truth to power.” Everyone loves speaking truth to power. It’s the easiest thing in the world to do, in a democracy. You know what’s hard? To speak truth to people. For, in a democracy, that’s where power actually lies.

And when people have been lied to — when they’ve been sold a bill of goods — they need to be disabused, by honest people, honest leaders.

I like what Dick Cheney said recently: “A real man wouldn’t lie to his supporters.”

So far as I’m aware, Donald Trump has been booed only once — only once by his supporters, I mean, at one of his rallies. It was when he encouraged vaccination against the coronavirus. He also said, when asked, that he had received a booster shot.

Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, was asked the same question, in an interview with Maria Bartiromo of Fox News last December. He said, “So, uh, I’ve done whatever I did, the normal shot, and that at the end of the day is people’s individual decisions about what they want to do.”

In my observation, Republican politicians have been very reluctant to tell their voters whether they have been vaccinated (or “boosted”). Chip Roy, a congressman from Texas, said, “I don’t think it’s anybody’s damn business whether I’m vaccinated or not.”

I took up this subject in a column:

In my opinion, “Are you vaccinated?” is not the equivalent of “Do you have herpes?” A pandemic is plaguing the land, and the world. When I was a kid, there were immunization campaigns. That’s what we called them: “immunization campaigns.” There were always resisters, of course — that’s natural. But the campaigners were not thought to be bad people.

I will quote a little more:

Every now and then, leaders ought to lead (or set an example). (There is an expression: “to lead by example.”) Often, these guys are more followers than leaders.

A little more:

I can think of one politician — a Republican politician — who is forthright about vaccination and its importance: Mitch McConnell. Which makes sense, as he survived childhood polio.

In my book, Republican politicians ought to answer a couple of basic questions, before other questions are asked: Did Joe Biden win the election fair and square? Was January 6 committed by Trump supporters or by Antifa, BLM, or some other left-wing group? (Or the FBI?)

If you can’t answer these questions — honestly, forthrightly — you’re not fit to lead, in my judgment.

Among his fans, Ron DeSantis has the reputation of being a bold politician who “tells it like it is.” Great. Look forward to hearing it.

I wouldn’t hold my breath. When he says he “tells it like it is” what he means is that he lies constantly.

I guess Nordlinger is a Never Trumper so it’s easy to discount his influence. But he published that in the National Review from which most Never Trumpers have been purged. It’s not Fox News or Newsmax so I doubt most GOP voters will read it b

ut it’s good that it’s out there anyway. There might be a few college educated Republican voters left who are realizing that this isn’t just Trump and it’s not going to go away on its own and they will need to make the decision to not vote GOP if they think democracy should be preserved.

*I will just take a moment to observe that Cheney saying that a “real man” wouldn’t lie to his supporters is preposterous coming from the man who leaned on the CIA to say there were weapons on mass destruction in Iraq in order to provide the excuse for a major war.

Politics and time

… will not fix our problems

Jamelle Bouie makes the point in his NYT column today that allowing Trump to get away with his crimes once again will not keep the peace no matter how much Pollyannas keep insisting the nation can only heal if they do. And he brings up a perfect example from our ignominious past to illustrate why:

Among skeptics of prosecution, there appears to be a belief that restraint would create a stable equilibrium between the two parties; that if Democrats decline to pursue Trump, then Republicans will return the favor when they win office again. But this is foolish to the point of delusion. We don’t even have to look to the recent history of Republican politicians using the tools of office to investigate their political opponents. We only have to look to the consequences of giving Trump (or any of his would-be successors) a grant of nearly unaccountable power. Why would he restrain himself in 2025 or beyond? Why wouldn’t he and his allies use the tools of state to target the opposition?

The arguments against prosecuting Trump don’t just ignore or discount the current state of the Republican Party and the actually existing status quo in the United States, they also ignore the crucial fact that this country has experience with exactly this kind of surrender in the face of political criminality.

National politics in the 1870s was consumed with the question of how much to respond to vigilante lawlessness, discrimination and political violence in the postwar South. Northern opponents of federal and congressional intervention made familiar arguments.

If Republicans, The New York Times argued in 1874, “set aside the necessity of direct authority from the Constitution” to pursue their aims in the South and elsewhere, could they then “expect the Democrats, if they should gain the power, to let the Constitution prevent them from helping their ancient and present friends?”

The better approach, The Times said in an earlier editorial, was to let time do its work. “The law has clothed the colored man with all the attributes of citizenship. It has secured him equality before the law, and invested him with the ballot.” But here, wrote the editors, “the province of law will end. All else must be left to the operation of causes more potent than law, and wholly beyond its reach.” His old oppressors in the South, they added, “rest their only hope of party success upon their ability to obtain his goodwill.”

To act affirmatively would create unrest. Instead, the country should let politics and time do their work. The problems would resolve themselves, and Americans would enjoy a measure of social peace as a result.

Of course, that is not what happened. In the face of lawlessness, inaction led to impunity, and impunity led to a successful movement to turn back the clock on progress as far as possible, by any means possible.

Our experience, as Americans, tells us that there is a clear point at which we must act in the face of corruption, lawlessness and contempt for the very foundations of democratic society. The only way out is through. Fear of what Trump and his supports might do cannot and should not stand in the way of what we must do to secure the Constitution from all its enemies, foreign and domestic.

Give them an inch and they’ll take a mile. That’s just how they roll.

First Republicans came for abortion, etc.

Who’s next on their menu?

Abortion rights may appear a lower-tier issue than “threats to democracy” in the NBC News poll released Sunday, but one poll does not an election campaign make. Voter enthusiasm and turnout win races.

Dan Pfeiffer believes “the political environment has shifted in Democrats’ favor.” Activists in in Pittsburgh concurred. The Dobbs decision has put Republicans back on their heels. We need to keep them there.

Democrats historically avoided the term “abortion” while still advocating for Planned Parenthood and women’s health issues. Reports of women’s health emergencies in the wake of Dobbs have modified that calculation:

Democratic efforts to turn this midterm from a progress report on Democratic governance into a referendum on GOP extremism failed to connect until the Dobbs decision. That was when Republican extremism went from an abstract argument to lived reality. Many people thought Republicans didn’t really mean it when they talked about banning abortion or that their words didn’t matter because the constitutional right to abortion services was in no danger of being overturned. The Republicans exacerbated the problem by following up the Dobbs decision with a series of laws and proposals like total bans, restricting interstate travel, and limiting IVF.

The fact that Republicans wanted abortion banned, and then it was banned has many people much more concerned about other extremist positions like ending access to contraception and marriage equality. A politician that denies access to abortion to rape victims is also a politician that seems like to ban contraception, out law gay marriage, end Social Security, and steal an election.

What else might Republicans do to you? Remind voters that something they care about could be next on the Trumpublican Party’s menu. First Republicans came for abortion, etc. Next they could “privatize out of existence” Social Security, Medicare, and other social insurance Americans paid into their entire lives.

Democrats need to do more than emphasize what they are running against. But the staged rollout of Biden’s infrastructure package and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provisions makes it more challenging to pitch to prospective voters what Democrats are doing for you. The White House provides a series of fact sheets on that, but voters won’t hear it via a website. They need to hear it from family and friends more so than from ads and events. Voters won’t appreciate the help until they feel it, and other than lowering inflation and gas prices, most of that feel won’t come until after November 2022.

That’s why, while reminding voters that unemployment is at record lows and more help is on the way, voters need to hear Democrats are fighting to keep government of the people, by the people, for the people from perishing from the earth. The message must include that they are fighting for you and to preserve women’s freedom to choose when whether, when, and with whom to have a child.

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Request a copy of For The Win, 4th Edition, my free, countywide get-out-the-vote planning guide for county committees at ForTheWin.us.