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Month: August 2022

Dunning-Kruger goes to court

Published by Tom Sullivan on August 23, 2022

Patron saint of “Sir” stories files a filing

Inspired by a Republican only threatened with impeachment.

Lawsuits, legal delaying tactics, and claims of persecution are standard Donald Trump moves. Nothing has changed since he left office.

Maggie Haberman, Jodi Kantor, et al. reveal that in the first tranche of documents the National Archives reclaimed from the former president’s Palm Beach club included over 150 classified documents. Their presence “in the wild” triggered Department of Justice concerns and a criminal investigation that led to an F.B.I. search for more. Government officials recovered more than 300 documents from Mar-a-Lago:

And the extent to which such a large number of highly sensitive documents remained at Mar-a-Lago for months, even as the department sought the return of all material that should have been left in government custody when Mr. Trump left office, suggested to officials that the former president or his aides had been cavalier in handling it, not fully forthcoming with investigators, or both.

The specific nature of the sensitive material that Mr. Trump took from the White House remains unclear. But the 15 boxes Mr. Trump turned over to the archives in January, nearly a year after he left office, included documents from the C.I.A., the National Security Agency and the F.B.I. spanning a variety of topics of national security interest, a person briefed on the matter said.

Mr. Trump went through the boxes himself in late 2021, according to multiple people briefed on his efforts, before turning them over.

Trump took them. He had them. He knew he had them, and he did not return them all when asked.

Federal magistrate judge Bruce E. Reinhart directed federal officials to propose redactions to the sealed affidavit supporting the F.B.I. search warrant.

Trump now demands in a filing that the court appoint a special master to separate materials he considers covered by executive- or attorney-client privilege (elsewhere in New York Times):

The motion, which was filled with bombastic complaints about the search — “The government has long treated President Donald J. Trump unfairly,” it said at one point — also asked the Justice Department to provide an “informative receipt” of what was taken from Mar-a-Lago, Mr. Trump’s home and club in Florida, on Aug. 8. His lawyers wrote that the inventory left at the property by the agents who conducted the search was “legally deficient” and did “little to identify” the seized material.

If the judge who received the motion, Aileen M. Cannon, appoints a special master in the case, it will almost certainly drag out the process of reviewing the multiple boxes of documents that were seized and slow down the government’s investigation into whether Mr. Trump obstructed a federal inquiry and wrongfully retained national defense documents.

Trump may have delaying tactics down cold, but the expert on everything has made himself a paradigm case of Dunning-Kruger incompetence, Kurt Eichenwald suggests after reviewing Trump’s court filing. He’s flabbergasted at how bad it is:

A sampling:

…the repeated use of the “That’s Not Fair” judicial standard (cite: Playground v Tantrum, 2022) the lack of citations for pretty much everything, the lack of fundamental things like affidavits to back the statements of facts, and on and on. But first: What the hell is it?… 

…you don’t just run in and say “Appoint a special master!” It has to fall under some category of judicial procedure. Is this a preliminary motion for an injunction to halt the review of documents by the government, pending further motions? No clue.

Skipping over a question about venue that Eichenwald later in the thread believes he got wrong, he continues:

Trump clearly wrote huge portions of this, even though three lawyers signed it. There are repeated sections with “my” and “I” in it (like “my house”)…5 

…now let’s get to the meat. The kinds of things that Trump provides without affidavit – in other words, something more like a tweet than serious legal filing – are like this: “One of the FBIagents said, ‘Thank you. You did not need to show us the storage room. I get it now”…6 

…this, of course, has all the earmarks of one of Trump’s “they came up to me crying and said ‘Sir…'” tweets. It is meaningless garbage without an affidavit, and all of the statements of fact are like this. Now, their argument becomes utter nonsense. By the standard…7 

…they invoke, there will no longer be confidential informants, evidence withheld prior to indictment – it will be a criminal free-for-all. Trump wants to argue for special rules based on the “But I’m Donald Trump!” standard (Malignant v. Narcissist, 2016). 

The filing reads like a Trump rally speech. Contrary to Eichenwald, Marcy Wheeler believes much of the filing was written by Kash Patel (who did not sign it):

…next, the relatively few citations that Trump uses *are all misrepresented.* In fact, that is clear even in the limited quotes from precedent that Trump cites, and really makes you wonder if he truly does not know he is no longer president. 

Trump and his attorneys fling anything and everything into the filing, including, writes Wheeler:

Wheeler writes, “One thing it is not is a significant Fourth Amendment filing.” (Trump promised one days ago.) “Trump couldn’t even manage that competently.” She left her own comments on the filing in a thread here.

Most Americans and Trump cult members are not paying this kind of attention. But what the court filing from his cut-rate lawyers further confirms is that Donald J. Trump doesn’t know what he doesn’t know. His Incompetence sucks at everything except criming. He has no business anywhere national security secrets or any levers of power, and never did. Trump has no regard for anything but the superficialities of legal conduct — when they suit his self-interest. Which now is primarily avoiding debts and keeping his sorry ass out of prison. He is a moral black hole.

Even Richard Nixon retained enough of a conscience and self-respect to know when it was time to slink away from the White House and shut the hell up. And you wouldn’t buy a used car from him. But the cult would.

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The Ballad of Mar-a-lago

Published by digby on August 22, 2022

In a warm south Florida summer
They weren’t warned
Didn’t see it coming
For years Trumps been scorned

Then early morn that Monday
Peace was breached
FBI marched on in
Now Garland should be impeached

They searched it all
Bedrooms bathrooms down the hall
unintelligible
Even took all their passports

What’s crazy that they did
We think Trump has stuff hid
They did this all to help old Joe
Raided Mar-a-lago

Apparently, that’s a real thing. Just don’t call it a cult.

QOTD: Mitch McConnell

Published by digby on August 22, 2022

Uhm:

Neither one is very popular. Congressional leaders rarely are. But as you can see, Mitch might want to think about whether it’s smart to frame it this way. If it comes down to the two of them, Americans approve of Schumer over him.

“We have plenty of trees!”

Published by digby on August 22, 2022

The GOP hits a new low

This man could end up in the US Senate, thanks to the nihilist GOP:

Georgia Republican Senate nominee Herschel Walker is criticizing the sweeping climate, health-care and deficit-reduction bill signed into law by President Biden arguing that it includes wasteful spending to combat global warming and asking, “Don’t we have enough trees around here?”

The former NFL football player, who was encouraged to run by former president Donald Trump, has made a series of head-scratching comments that have drawn ridicule. In a July 9 appearance, he spoke about climate change, suggesting that Georgia’s “good air decides to float over” to China, replacing China’s “bad air,” which goes back to Georgia, where “we got to clean that back up.”

In an appearance Sunday,according to an account by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Walker reiterated his opposition to the Inflation Reduction Act, signed by Biden last week, that invests in curbing global warming, among other things.

“They continue to try to fool you that they are helping you out. But they’re not,” Walker said. “Because a lot of money, it’s going to trees. Don’t we have enough trees around here?”

It’s possible Walker may have been referring to a provision in the law that allocates $1.5 billion to the U.S. Forest Service’s Urban and Community Forestry Program.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) rankled some fellow Republicans last week when he said his party could fall short of retaking the Senate, citing “candidate quality” as an issue. While McConnell didn’t name names, Walker is among those widely believe to be underperforming in his race to unseat Sen. Raphael G. Warnock (D).

Walker told the Journal-Constitution over the weekend that he was unfazed by McConnell’s comments.

“I don’t ever worry about stuff like that,” Walker said. “When I got into this race, I got in this race to win it for the people. I said, ‘Guys, I’m here for the people of Georgia.’ I’m not worried about what people say.”

The Journal-Constitution reported that Walker spoke after an event Sunday with the Republican Jewish Coalition in Sandy Springs, Ga.

Warnock’s campaign did not comment on Walker’s remarks, but Dan Gottlieb, a spokesman for the Georgia Democratic Party, told The Washington Post that they show that Walker is unprepared to serve in the Senate.

“The few policies Walker can articulate, like his support for a nationwide abortion ban and opposition to legislation to reduce drug costs for seniors, are harmful to Georgians. But his inability to demonstrate even the most basic understanding of other key issues shows he isn’t ready to represent Georgia in the U.S. Senate,” Gottlieb said.

In June, Walker faced a string of controversies, including that he has two sons and a daughter with different women whom he had not spoken about publicly.

The Journal-Constitution debunked previous claims by Walker that he had worked in law enforcement and had been an FBI agent. The Daily Beast reported that Walker had a 10-year-old son out of wedlock whom he hadn’t discussed publicly. The left-leaning news site reported that Walker had another 13-year-old son with a different woman as well as an adult daughter he fathered as a college student. Walker has spoken on the campaign trail about his close relationship with another son, 22-year-old Christian.

Walker, who in the past has chided absentee Black fathers, confirmed the Daily Beast’s reporting and said he never hid his other children.

“I have four children. Three sons and a daughter. They’re not ‘undisclosed’ — they’re my kids,” Walker said in a statement sent to The Washington Post. “Saying I hide my children because I don’t discuss them with reporters to win a campaign? That’s outrageous. I can take the heat, that’s politics, but leave my kids alone.”

I’ve long held that Ron Johnson from Wisconsin is the dumbest man in the US Senate and that’s saying something. We have a new contender. If this man manages to unseat Rafael Warnock, a spectacular Senator, we will know for sure that the GOP’s nihilist turn is complete. They are soulless destroyers.

The cost of the culture war and Donald Trump

Published by digby on August 22, 2022

The rank and file care about nothing else

Issues? What issues?

In years past, it would have been a political Waterloo moment for Republicans: President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats racing frantically to finalize sweeping legislation to hike taxes on corporations and spend trillions on climate change and health care subsidies.

But instead of mounting a massive grassroots opposition to tank or tar the Inflation Reduction Act, conservatives and right-wing news outlets spent the past week with their gaze elsewhere: the FBI’s search of Donald Trump’s Palm Beach mansion.

Hundreds of them gathered instead outside Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in South Florida to protest what they viewed as an egregious example of federal government overreach. Back in Washington, conservative activists did rally against the bill and targeted vulnerable Democrats in ads. But even the main organizers conceded that they had little time to muster the opposition-party gusto of years past.

“Everything was moving so fast, the tax provisions were being debated on the fly, so there was very little time for groups to do that in-depth grassroots pushback like we saw during Obamacare,” said Cesar Ybarra, vice president of policy at conservative grassroots organization FreedomWorks. “To create buzz in this town and for it to penetrate across America, you need more time. So yeah, we got rolled.”

Far from a singular lapse, last week’s split-screen of the Mar-a-Lago search and the passage of the IRA provided a telling portrait of pistons that move modern Republican politics. Whereas conservative activism has, in past cycles, been driven by opposition to Democratic-authored policies or actions — from Obamacare to TARP— the modern version has been fed by culture-war issues and, more often than not, Trump himself.

“I think anytime you have FBI agents setting a new precedent by raiding a former president’s home, that’s going to get a lot of attention, compounded by Liz Cheney getting annihilated in her primary,” said former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who set the prior template for policy-centric midterm catapults with the GOP’s famed Contract with America in 1994.

Let’s make one thing clear here. The supposed “policy-centric” politics of Newt Gingrich were also culture war battles. They just used to camoflage their racist, misogynist, hippie punching in issues rather than letting their hate hang out as they do now.

Their problem isn’t that that they don’t care about issues as they used to. They never did. And the Mar-a-lago search wasn’t a culture war skirmish. It’s that the only thing these people care about is Dear Leader. He’s their north star.

For Democrats, the current paradigm is a boon, politically. The party hailed the passage of the IRA as a major victory they plan to capitalize on moving into the midterms. They argue that uniform Republican opposition to the bill was hypocrisy — Trump once championed several of its provisions. They view the popularity of the IRA and absence of sustained pushback as a guarantee that this won’t be an electoral albatross like Obamacare was for the party in 2010.

“You’re not having town halls with people screaming about Medicare drug negotiations. It’s very hard to object to a bill that invests a lot of money in clean energy,” said Matt Bennett, the executive vice president for public affairs at the Democratic centrist think tank Third Way.

Republicans argue that the bill will prove more beneficial to them in November, specifically the provision to hire and retain more IRS agents. And they quibble with the idea that the right wasn’t outraged or organized, arguing that the bill was pared back precisely as a result of activist pushback. Far from being two separate threads, they see the IRA and the Mar-a-Lago search as intertwined.

“The timing of the bill happening the same week as the former president’s residence was raided, and you had the split screen of, well, if they could do that to him, they could do that to you, and here’s this bill with 87,000 IRS agents being funded,” said Jessica Anderson, the executive director of the conservative Heritage Action for America. “I think we’re going to look back and see that it really lit a match for people with the distrust for government at an all-time high.”

I don’t doubt that they will be able to tie all that up together, no matter how absurd it is. But they are fooling themselves if they think it means anything more than “Trump, Trump, Trump.” This is the man who has refused to release his tax returns and said on national TV that avoiding paying taxes makes him smart.

But others in the party conceded that policy fights are no longer driving activism, at least to the degree they once did.In a Twitter thread, Brian Riedl, an economist with the conservative-leaning Manhattan Institute, said the right’s more recent apathy on economic policy “is partially a focus on culture & troll wars, partly a post-Trump identity crisis. And a lot of Democrats simply learning to avoid the economic policy prescriptions that most drive conservative rebellions.”

The money flow may tell an even more compelling story about a grassroots movement more geared toward Trump than congressional Republicans.

In the wake of the FBI’s search of Trump’s home, Trump’s Save America PAC reportedly raked in millions in the following days, according to The Washington Post. Elsewhere, meanwhile, the main Republicans running in marquee Senate races have struggled to build small-dollar donor networks, forcing the National Republican Senatorial Committee to slash ad spending and campaigns and operatives to panic.

GOP candidates have had a terrible time raising money this cycle and it’s largely because of you-know-who:

Those figures, combined with Trump’s continued fundraising success, suggest that much of the conservative grassroots energy remains behind the former president, and not the other members of his party. The passage of Biden’s signature bill hasn’t changed that dynamic, even as Republicans have vowed to campaign against the IRA as they head into the November midterm election.

“It’s one of those bills that is going to get more and more unpopular the more that people learn about it,” predicted Rep. Jim Banks, chair of the Republican Study Committee, who led efforts to educate GOP House members on the IRA before it was passed. “The more the voters learn about it before election day, the more severe the consequences will be.

Good luck.Orange Julius Caesar wants it to be all about him and so it will be. Do they think he cares about them?

A federal judge finds an FBI warrant application “reliable”

Published by digby on August 22, 2022

Who could have imagined such a thing?

It appears that we may not get the whole affidavit released after all. He says that the probable redactions will make it meaningless gibberish:

The federal magistrate judge who authorized the warrant to search Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate emphasized Monday that he “carefully reviewed” the FBI’s sworn evidence before signing off and considers the facts contained in an accompanying affidavit to be “reliable.”

Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart offered his assessment in a 13-page order memorializing his decision to consider whether to unseal portions of the affidavit, which describe the evidence the bureau relied on to justify the search of the former president’s home.

“I was — and am — satisfied that the facts sworn by the affiant are reliable,” Reinhart said in the order.

Reinhart ruled last week that he would consider unsealing portions of the affidavit after conferring with the Justice Department and determining whether proposed redactions would be sufficient to protect the ongoing criminal investigation connected to the search. But in his order, Reinhart emphasized that he may ultimately agree with prosecutors that any redactions would be so extensive that they would render the document useless.

“I cannot say at this point that partial redactions will be so extensive that they will result in a meaningless disclosure, but I may ultimately reach that conclusion after hearing further from the Government,” Reinhart wrote.

The new order underlines the historic significance of a typically secret part of the criminal investigative process, arriving just as Trump has indicated he’s preparing to mount his own attack on the FBI investigation in court. The Justice Department is due to propose potential redactions by Thursday, portending a potentially lengthy process of negotiation with Reinhart and possible appeals.

In his order, Reinhart noted that “neither Former President Trump nor anyone else purporting to be the owner of the Premises has filed a pleading taking a position” on efforts to unseal the affidavit.

Reinhart also rejected the contention that unsealing aspects of the affidavit would set a dangerous precedent, given the singular, historic significance of this case.

“Given the intense public and historical interest in an unprecedented search of a former President’s residence, the Government has not yet shown that these administrative concerns are sufficient to justify sealing,” Reinhart ruled.

Reinhart’s order echoed his decision to shoot down an effort by media organizations and conservative advocacy group Judicial Watch to unseal the entire FBI affidavit. Reinhart acknowledged that some reporting had already indicated the significance of what may have been recovered from Mar-a-Lago — some news reports described nuclear-related information and other documents related to highly classified government programs. But he said those anonymously sourced reports, whether true or not, reveal nothing about the sources and methods the government used to obtain its evidence.

“Disclosure of these facts would detrimentally affect this investigation and future investigations,” Reinhart wrote, adding, “The Government has a compelling reason not to publicize that information at this time.”

Reinhart also echoed the government’s concern about threats to those involved in the investigation if identifying information were released via court documents. He cited news reports about threats to the FBI and the recent attack by an armed man against an FBI building in Cincinnati, though he didn’t mention that he himself has reportedly faced threats.

“Given the public notoriety and controversy about this search, it is likely that even witnesses who are not expressly named in the Affidavit would be quickly and broadly identified over social media and other communication channels, which could lead to them being harassed and intimidated,“ Reinhart noted.

Another reason to keep the affidavit sealed? Trump and his family’s personal protection by the Secret Service. Reinhart noted that the document describes the physical characteristics of Mar-a-Lago.

“Disclosure of those details could affect the Secret Service’s ability to carry out its protective function,” he wrote. “This factor weighs in favor of sealing.”

Trump doesn’t really worry about such things. He knows that the people who are intent upon political violence are his people and they won’t hurt him.

I never thought it would be likely that we’d see the details of this affidavit unless Trump is indicted. If congress gets to see it, which they may, then it’s possible that it will be leaked. So there’s that …

Fauci steps down

Published by digby on August 22, 2022

And the right says they will harass him in retirement

RedState reports that the Republicans are intent upon making his life miserable anyway:

Missouri Senate nominee Eric Schmitt was among the many Republicans who weighed in on Fauci’s announcement by suggesting his retirement will not stop them from calling on him to testify.

“Anthony Fauci has just announced he’s stepping aside in December — just before Republicans take the House & Senate back,” Schmitt tweeted after the news was announced. “My advice to Fauci: Clear your 2023 calendar for Senate hearings that will focus on your lies & deceit that destroyed lives & livelihoods.”

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who has absolutely owned Fauci throughout the pandemic including when Fauci served under former President Donald Trump and now Biden, has not yet weighed in on this development. But I’m sure when it happens it will be epic, especially considering Fauci’s news comes on the heels of Paul noting that if the GOP took control of Congress that they would be looking to “get to the bottom” of the origins of the coronavirus.

Update – 12:30pm ET: As expected, Rand Paul is in beast mode:

“Fauci’s resignation will not prevent a full-throated investigation into the origins of the pandemic. He will be asked to testify under oath regarding any discussions he participated in concerning the lab leak.”

This is sick beyond sick.It’s one of the most malicious right wing assaults of all of them, beyond even what Trump has done. He hasn’t been a supporters of Fauci but even he hasn’t said his ” lies & deceit destroyed lives & livelihoods.” Who is this freak Schmitt who would say such a thing? It’s grotesque.

It’s also hilarious that they are all saying his retirement is suspiciously “convenient.” The man is 81 years old. There’s nothing “convenient” about it.

The hate that’s dripping from these right wingers, virtually all of it on the basis of nonsense and conspiracy theories, is overwhelming.How do we turn this off?

Trump’s narcissism is costing the GOP

Published by digby on August 22, 2022

He just can’t stop being the center of attention. And that hurts the whole team.

There are dozens of outstanding questions about Donald Trump’s bizarre decision to abscond with boxes of unauthorized and classified documents when he left the White House and we don’t have any idea why he refused to return many of them when the National Archives and the FBI asked for them back. All we do know is that the FBI was forced to issue a subpoena, which Trump defied, and finally had to get a search warrant to retrieve the documents.

The speculation about his motives run from the former president just wanting to take classified material as a souvenir to show off to his friends or sell as memorabilia to possible blackmail of foreign leaders. (Apparently, presidents get highly classified intelligence on allies and adversaries alike.) The most alarming reporting suggested that the documents contained nuclear secrets. This seemed unlikely until this piece by Josh Kovensky at Talking Points Memo reminded me that Trump has a “special interest” in nuclear weapons, believing himself to be an expert because his uncle taught at MIT. Now it doesn’t seem so outlandish. Trump was bragging in his final year that the U.S. had developed some secret new nuclear program at his direction which he couldn’t reveal. So, who knows? He may have actually stolen something truly dangerous.

It remains to be seen if the law will catch up to Trump this time. It’s coming down on him from several directions but according to news reports Trump is thrilled about the whole thing because it’s raising lots of money and it has his supporters up in arms and fired up to fight for him. It also has him at the forefront of the political news which always makes Trump happy. According to NBC News, it’s all made him rethink his need to announce his presidential campaign before the midterm elections. As of now, he remains inclined to wait.

The biggest reason for celebration in Trumpworld no doubt is the fact that the search has necessitated that his would-be rivals all back off their plans to challenge him, at least for the moment. Once Trump activated the MAGA cult they had little choice, proving once again that Trump still has a stranglehold on the GOP. Everyone from former vice president Mike Pence to North Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and Virginia Gov. Glenn Younkin issued shrill denunciations of the FBI after the documents were siezed.

Trump’s top rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis who, in another political world would have jumped on the news to condemn Trump as damaged goods, immediately went to bat for him calling the FBI search “another escalation in the weaponization of federal agencies against the regime’s political opponents.” (If anyone knows about weaponizing agencies against enemies, it’s Ron DeSantis.) Polls showed that Trump got a 10 point bounce over DeSantis with GOP primary voters after the FBI search.

The pressure to back up the Dear Leader is so intense that even notorious podcaster Alex Jones, clearly out of the loop, rapidly backed down from his ill-timed endorsement of DeSantis over Trump:

It’s easy to see why Trump is feeling relieved. Over the summer it appeared that his followers were getting restive and his potential opponents were starting to make their moves. The Mar-a-Lago “raid” changed that dynamic.

Democracy is on the ballot and that’s not good news for Donald Trump.

Others, however, aren’t so sure this is the big winner Trump thinks it is. One worried friend of Trump told NBC:

“He may get closer to the prize but in reality, he’s slipping…It seems like the net is surrounding him more and more, and his ability to dance around these things is going to get more challenging,” this ally said. “It’s a double-edged sword.”

That net is not just the legal problems. Trump believes that it’s always better when he’s in the news, no matter what the reason, but he never seems to understand that while he may thrill his following, he also motivates the opposition. A new poll released this past weekend shows that the GOP is facing some unexpected headwinds going into the fall election — largely because of the January 6 hearings:

It’s certainly possible that the numbers include some Republicans who see the Big Lie about the 2020 election as a “threat to democracy” but the changes in enthusiasm argue that this is primarily attributable to Democrats:

According to the survey, 68% of Republicans express a high level of interest in the upcoming election — registering either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale — versus 66% for Democrats.

That 2-point GOP advantage is down from 17 points in March and 8 points in May.

The pollsters consider that to be the result of the Supreme Court’s decision to overrule the landmark Roe v. Wade decision in June. But since abortion shows up as the top issue for only 8% of respondents, it’s clear that it’s not the only reason for the surge in interest. “Threats to democracy” coming in as the most important issue is the big change. Democracy is on the ballot and that’s not good news for Donald Trump.

Just as important, with all the “fundamentals” about the economy, President Biden’s approval rating etc., Trump’s constant attention-grabbing, his legal troubles, his rallies, his endorsements, the drumbeat of Trump, Trump, Trump, has turned the midterm election from a standard referendum on the president to a choice between the undisputed leader of the Republican Party and the leader of the Democratic Party. And while it’s true that Biden’s popularity numbers are low, Trump’s are even worse:

As I’ve said before, Trump is the gift that keeps on giving — for Democrats. If he’d kept a low profile, cooperated with the FBI and shut his mouth, this election might have been the cakewalk they all expected it to be. But with the hearings and Dobbs and Trump endorsing a crop of fascist weirdos, it looks like it’s going to be a real race. If Democrats actually save their majority this fall they should send Trump a case of Diet Coke and a very nice thank-you card.

Salon

Down in the flood

Published by Tom Sullivan on August 22, 2022

Well, it’s sugar for sugar | And salt for salt

Dallas early-morning flooding image via The Weather Channel.

Rain fell in buckets before I left Pittsburgh Sunday morning. Rainwaters cascaded down roads and sidewalks and driveways when I arrived in WNC Sunday evening. Never seen anything like it short of a hurricane. A neighbor said it was the second such rain of the day.

CNN warns of rising waters in the East:

After a weekend of heavy rain in the southern US, more than 13 million people remain under flood warnings today. Many parts of north and central Texas are under flood watches, as well as some areas of northwest Louisiana, according to the National Weather Service. Forecasters say increased rain is causing excessive runoff that floods rivers, creeks, streams and other low-lying areas. Up to 6 inches of rain has already fallen across the Texas-Oklahoma border and forecasts show an additional 4 to 8 inches could hit the region today. Meanwhile, heavy downpours in New Mexico this weekend forced about 160 people to evacuate from Carlsbad Caverns National Park, authorities said. Rangers also received a report of hikers being “swept off their feet” due to powerful flood waters at Utah’s Zion National Park a few days ago. 

Weather dot com on Dallas: 8:34 a.m. EDT: One Of Heaviest 24-Hour Soakings On Record

Dallas-Ft. Worth International Airport reported 7.17 inches of rain had fallen in 24 hours ending at 7 a.m CT.

According to statistics from the National Weather Service, this is the fifth heaviest 24-hour rainfall on record in the Metroplex in at least 122 years.

This is more rain in 24 hours than the average from July, August and September, combined (6.98 inches).

Climate change? What climate change?

Now, it’s king for king,
Queen for queen,
It’s gonna be the meanest flood
That anybody’s seen.

And more water to come, bone-dry Left Coast.

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Request a copy of For The Win, 4th Edition, my free, countywide get-out-the-vote planning guide for county committees at ForTheWin.us.

“Pray for democracy”

Published by Tom Sullivan on August 22, 2022

Its fate heading into the 2022 elections

“Pray for democracy,” read a sign spotted Sunday in the window of a Craigsville, West Virginia business. Nicholas County voted for Donald Trump by nearly four to one in 2020. My first reaction in this remote crossroads was, Whose idea of democracy? Likely someone who voted Biden, my wife interjected. Even in the reddest rural places, they are out there.

NBC News released a poll Sunday showing a majority of Americans favor continuing the investigations into “alleged wrongdoing by former President Donald Trump.” More eye-catching was how “threats to democracy” now tops of Americans’ concerns by five points, even over the “cost of living.”

Democracy has become a smear among the Joe McCarthy-adjacent on the right, as Robert Draper wrote last week:

What is different now is the use of “democracy” as a kind of shorthand and even a slur for Democrats themselves, for the left and all the positions espoused by the left, for hordes of would-be but surely unqualified or even illegal voters who are fundamentally anti-American and must be opposed and stopped at all costs. That anti-democracy and anti-“democracy” sentiment, repeatedly voiced over the course of my travels through Arizona, is distinct from anything I have encountered in over two decades of covering conservative politics.

Americans not under Trumpism’s spell have reason for concern. Whether following Trump or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (a Florida friend calls him Rhonda Santis), it seems a majority on the right (a minority overall, thankfully) now embrace “authoritarianism in the name of liberty and godliness,” writes Ed Kilgore. “Anyone utilizing the democratic process to promote alternative policy visions [to theirs] is deemed un-American, and their successes are dismissed as illegitimate.”  

Education is UN-indoctrination

The split is largely but not entirely urban-rural. The Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies survey of 1,000 registered voters (3/4 on cell phones) accounted for age, sex, race and ethnicity, but not urban/rural locations.

A new study from Canada (I have not had time to review) explores asymmetries in place-based resentments:

First, we ask how place resentment varies across all possible combinations of urban, suburban, and rural in-groups and out-groups. Second, we explore if high-resentment individuals in urban, suburban, and rural areas share similar socio-demographic and political characteristics. Finally, we investigate how citizens’ satisfaction with their elected representatives, and positions on contentious and important policy issues, are related to place-based resentment. We investigate these questions using two large-scale surveys of the Canadian public. We find that place-based resentment is highly asymmetric: resentment is strongest among rural residents regardless of the target (suburban or urban) of their resentment, whereas urban and suburban residents tend to resent each other more than either group resents rural areas. We also find substantial asymmetries in the correlates and political implications of place resentment. Our findings suggest that place resentment is an important and politically consequential phenomenon across all place types, but also that the character and strength of this resentment is quite different in rural, suburban, and urban places.

Something pollsters might want to consider along with education level.

A fascinating Twitter thread on Sunday (self-selected, of course) explored how a college education can profoundly change political and social perspectives among people raised in rural or sequestered communities.

Justin Kanew counters the conservative talking point that universities and liberal professors are indoctrinating students. They don’t have that power. What changes students more is exposure to other students from different places, countries, and walks of life.

“Education is UN-indoctrination. That’s why they resent it,” Kanew says of conservatives.

Browse through the thread for the “testimonies” of people from rural areas whose exposure to new ideas challenged the ones with which they were indoctrinated by parents and preachers.

Education, democracy, multiculturalism, immigrants, etc., are a near-mortal threat to conservative parochialism. That’s why so many conservatives resent them.

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