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Month: September 2022

Don’t kid youselves

Violent minorities allowed to metastasize go very dark

Something Digby wrote about right-wing “Orbanism” on Monday reinforced concerns I (and likely you) already have:

Comparing liberal commitments to civil rights to this movement is ridiculous but the description of what these people are about is on the money. This is Orbanism and they aren’t trying to hide it.

Something NBC’s Ben Collins said during Chris Hayes’ show Monday night framed Trumpism/QAnonism in a way I had not considered before. Since Richard Nixon popularized “the silent majority,” American conservatives have salved their cultural insecurities with the belief that while liberalism might seem dominant in popular culture, Real Americans™ (them, naturally) represented a governing majority. The red-state lean of the Electoral College helped prop up that belief.

What’s slowly sunk in since the election of a black man to the White House in 2008 and since Donald Trump’s 2020 repudiation is that, no, white conservative Christians do not (or no longer) wield that kind of clout in a system based on majority rule in an increasingly muliticultural USA. They are roughly a third of eligible voters but little more. The comfortable fiction is no longer sustainable. What’s a revanchist to do?

The Republican Party has allied itself with the extremist fringe over the decades— with white supremacists, the Birchers, the T-Party, QAnon —to secure their votes, David Corn chronicles in “American Psychosis: A Historical Investigation of How the Republican Party Went Crazy.” It’s not just political calculation anymore. It’s the party’s identity.

The QAnon doomsday cult wants the world to be 20 years ago or 50 years ago, maybe even 100 years ago, said Collins, and doesn’t know how to get there. Prophesies from “Q” repeatedly fail to come to pass. Believers see their only path forward as violence and intimidation. The only votes they think they can win are small-ball, local elections they can see with a hand-count and where intimidation can work for them.

Conservative extremists are leveraging whatever power they retain to exert control where a small cadre of belligerent loudmouths can cow small-town public officials and neighbors. School boards and local elections are obvious targets. They are even now running candidates for state offices that wield power over elections so that even in the minority they might ensure their candidates win. The whole point of it, Hayes observed, is “you don’t need a majority to get your way.”

Lacking the national clout minority support cannot produce, they are leveraging what threats and intimidation can. It’s not the apocalyptic vision of their dreams, but consider history. Countries have fallen into fascism driven by the efforts of committed minorities willing to use violence where democracy fails. The results are catastrophic and realized too late by the majority population.

Hayes in his monologue said, “Right before our eyes, the de facto leader of one of two major political parties…is embracing fully a violent, authoritarian cult mythology. It’s one that explicitly imagines its political foes being killed.”

They are not ready for Rwanda-style violence, a knowledeable friend said this week, but with revival-style rallies they’re putting in place the religious justification for it.

Complacency is not an option. We were sure America was not crazy enough in 2016 to elect Donald Trump.

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The Wingnut Will to Power

They are making plain

This is from Reason magazine, which explains its “both sides” libertarian bent. But the point is well made:

“Wokeism is not a fever that will pass but a cancer that must be eradicated,” declared a main-stage speaker at the third National Conservatism Conference (“NatCon III”) last week. “In this new reality, the only institution with the power to contend with and conquer the woke-industrial complex is the government of the United States.”

In the task to identify what distinguishes national conservatism from other right-wing varietals, you could do worse than to start with that quote from activist Rachel Bovard. It shows that this burgeoning political faction has at its heart a fundamentally favorable orientation toward federal power and not a mere revivification of national pride. It also makes it clear that the natcons’ purpose in acquiring government power is not merely to prevent its misuse by opposing ideologues; it’s to use it affirmatively to destroy opposing ideologues.

Bovard continued:

The institutional left does not intend to leave anything of the old republic behind for us to salvage. Constitutionalism, scientific inquiry, individual liberty, civil society, voluntarism, patriotism, parental authority, free expression, free enterprise, religious pluralism, cultural diversity—they are coming for everything. So national conservatism must come for them. We must forge a comprehensive policy agenda for Congress, the presidency, and the states to break apart the left’s every source of funding and power. Not as an act of partisan retaliation but one of national survival. [emphasis added]

The Bovard speech was not a one-off. Many of the most popular speakers at the three-day conference in Miami returned to the same theme. “Imagine how quickly the political landscape would change,” said Hillsdale College’s David Azerrad, “if we had a core contingent of elected Republicans who were committed to using power to defund and humiliate the institutional centers of power of the left.”

It was Azerrad who, in 2020, provided an early articulation of what I’ve called “Will-to-Power Conservatism“: “The right must be comfortable wielding the levers of state power,” he wrote, and “using them to reward friends and punish enemies (within the confines of the rule of law).”

That language has become a favorite talking point of Newsweek opinion editor (and fellow NatCon III attendee) Josh Hammer, who has repeatedly adopted it in his own tweets and writings—including a column this year that kicked up a storm online. After critics pointed out that using government to “reward friends and punish enemies” is generally considered to run afoul of the rule of law by definition, Newsweek silently altered the sentence to call instead for “the rewarding of good and the punishing of evil.” When that was noticed, Newsweek appended an editor’s note to the article defending the change on the grounds that Hammer views the two phrases as “substantively…interchangeable.”

But even phrases like “using political power…to reward friends and punish enemies” may seem a bit nebulous. What, concretely, do the natcons propose? The answers are illuminating: In her speech, Bovard explicitly urged conservatives to use the government to break up tech companies, tax the endowments of left-wing universities, impose trade barriers, build a border wall, and increase the size of the child tax credit. 

In a “primer” on national conservatism released on the heels of the conference, Hammer called for “a temporary full immigration moratorium” to “drastically reduce legal immigration from its current levels”; for “vigorous antitrust enforcement against, and common carrier regulation for,” banks and social media companies that discriminate against conservative viewpoints; and for a national industrial policy.

NatCon speakers also voiced support for laws of a religious nature, including conference organizer Yoram Hazony’s insistence on getting God back into our schools—or as Hammer put it in his primer, “the American public square should overtly reflect God and the teachings of the Bible and Scripture.”

Such calls to embrace government power were front and center at NatCon III. But there were also many blander academic presentations and even some thoughtful admonitions against conservative overreach, such as Fr. Benedict Kiely’s comment that “where nationalism can go wrong…is if the good of one’s own nation alone is pursued without regard for the rights of others.” One question I had throughout the event was the extent to which the most bombastic voices represented the average natcon sympathizer.

The crowd’s ebullient response to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, though, at least suggests an answer. DeSantis, arguably the frontrunner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, has been a champion of using the power of the state against individuals and businesses. From his keynote address at the conference:

We were the first state or one of the first to ban so-called vaccine passports, the idea that you have to show proof of a COVID shot to be able to participate in society. And there were some conservatives that said, “Yeah, well, government shouldn’t do a vaccine passport, but if a private business wants to do it, what’s wrong with that?” Well, I’ll tell you what’s wrong with that. An individual has a right to participate in society. And we’re not just going to sit idly by….

We also were one of the first states to provide protections for all employees in Florida, not just government employees, against employer-imposed COVID shot mandates. Our view is very simple: No Floridian should have to choose between a job that they need and a shot they do not want. And that’s the same if you’re a police officer at a municipality, if you work for the state government, or if you work for the biggest corporations in the state of Florida.

The idea that the government may stop companies and organizations from setting the terms under which they will do business because other people have “a right to participate in society” is, of course, the same argument that leftists have trotted out to justify crackdowns against Christian wedding vendors that do not wish to participate in gay marriage celebrations and against religious schools that expect job candidates not to openly flout tenets of the faith. Yet conservatives have long argued that private property and free association do, or at the very least should, broadly protect employers’ rights.

A free society must respect people’s freedoms even when lots of other people dislike how they’re used. Fortunately, abiding by that bargain will tend to produce a rich and diverse marketplace where people have the space to experiment with different business practices and consumption decisions. 

DeSantis has proven his willingness to wield government power to punish political dissent and pre-empt choices he does not like. Despite that (or perhaps, as I suspect, because of it) NatCon III attendees were in fits of adulation over his speech. The will to power ran deep in Miami.

Comparing liberal commitments to civil rights to this movement is ridiculous but the description of what these people are about is on the money. This is Orbanism and they aren’t trying to hide it.

Tribal solidarity

I will be very curious to see if this becomes a thing at Trump rallies. His use of the tune wasn’t accidental.Someone has decided they need to signal the QAnon people and I could easily see the rest of the Trump cult adopting it even if they don’t sign on to Q:

On Saturday night, as former President Donald Trump was wrapping up a political rally in Youngstown, Ohio, one section of the crowd all raised their arms in the air and extended one finger.

The strange salute came as Trump was once again spreading lies and disinformation about the 2020 election and the FBI search on his Mar-a-Lago home. The signal was immediately compared to the “Sieg Heil” salute used by Nazi party members to greet Hitler. Some also said it was in reference to Trump’s “America First” motto. 

However, for QAnon followers, the one-finger salute was taken as yet another signal from Trump that he is in their corner. 

Some in the wider QAnon community also claimed the one-finger salute was a reference to the phrase “Where we go one, we go all,” though again with no evidence to back up the claims. 

One offshoot of the cult even claimed credit for starting the salute: “Trump ended his speech with the song “wwg1wga” by Richard Feelgood, which is a blatant Q reference,” Michael Protzman, the QAnon cult leader who predicted that JFK would be resurrected, wrote in his Telegram channel. “During the song, we had a powerful moment where our group held up one finger. A call for unity. Acknowledgement of our one GOD. Wwg1wga. And more. It was magical and completely unplanned as many in the crowd joined us in this gesture. A gesture to say to this beautiful man, ‘We’re with you.’”

Protzman and his group were at the rally, but there’s no evidence that it was they who initiated this salute. Like many incidents, QAnon adherents will quickly claim credit for something happening in the real world after the fact and fit it around their narrative that Trump is waging a secret war to unseat the deep state.

The song Protzman referenced is one that Trump has played on several occasions, and included in a campaign-style video last month that he posted to Truth Social. However, according to Trump spokesperson Taylor Budowich, the song is “Mirrors,” by Will Van De Crommert.

QAnon supporters believe it’s a song called “WWG1WGA” by an artist named Richard Feelgood. Audio analysis by media watchdog Media Matters For America suggests that the songs are virtually identical.

Trump is not doing any of this by accident. He’s feeding his base, which is what he does. QAnon is a MAGA constituency.

Prove America still has some decency

If possible

Ron DeSantis got a standing ovation at a rally in Kansas for his grotesque stunt sending saying “The one place in the country where we see virtually no law and order is at the southern border, and this is a crisis.” He is not a border governor and Kansas is not a border state but I guess these people feel the need to reach out to their fellow bigots to show solidarity. Whether this works with decent people is unlikely.

Ross Barkan at the Atlantic says Democrats should see this as an opportunity:

Ron DeSantis and Greg Abbott, the Republican governors of Florida and Texas, respectively, have exploited thousands of migrants by busing and flying them to New York City; Washington, D.C.; and Martha’s Vineyard, off Massachusetts. The idea is simple: Make the Democrats deal with the border crisis and prove they’re all hypocrites, human rights be damned.

As a matter of optics, it’s not yet clear who has emerged ahead. Martha’s Vineyard, rather than the large cities, captured the public imagination in the past week. Indeed, the crisis didn’t become a crisis until DeSantis picked as a destination an island retreat for the ultra-wealthy. In that sense, Democrats did fall for the immoral stunt. They cared more about Edgartown than Midtown. Lis Smith, a prominent Democratic strategist, tweeted, “Trap laid, bait taken, right wing gets their headline” with a picture of a New York Post front page that declared, “Liberals Deport Migrants.” The conservative newspaper accused “rich Dems” of hypocrisy because they’d sent the migrants to a military base on Cape Cod, where they could be provided temporary shelter and humanitarian aid. Of course, many Martha’s Vineyard residents embraced the migrants. That part of the conservative narrative—of snooty white liberals cowering in horror—was simply untrue.

But the Democrats have an opportunity here. Rather than lament yet another disingenuous culture war that Republicans are thirsty to wage, Democrats of all ideological stripes should use this moment to celebrate the very places that could become permanent homes for migrants fleeing violence and economic calamity. Since the pandemic-induced crime spike, Trump Republicans have inveighed against big cities, taking up an incendiary and racially coded 20th-century playbook to throw Democrats on the defensive. Few prominent Democrats have offered an adequate counterargument. Now political leaders who care about immigrants should declare, affirmatively and loudly, Yes, send them here.

Send them to New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles. Send them to Cleveland, Detroit, and St. Louis. And send them to the cosmopolitan cities trapped in red states that will welcome migrants. San Antonio, Houston, and Miami are enriched by refugees and their children, people who have fled oppression for a better life in America.

To her credit, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York has been on the front line of this new messaging battle, championing her own district, which includes parts of Queens and the Bronx, as a home for migrants. “My district is nearly 50% immigrant. We speak 100+ languages, have 2 public hospitals that treat all regardless of status/income, and still have enough left over to help states like Florida,” the congresswoman recently tweeted. “We know how to care for each other, and are pretty damn good at it.” AOC’s clapback instincts don’t always serve her well, but having an unapologetically progressive political superstar is in this case very much to the Democrats’ benefit. She won’t let them ignore the issue, and for the next few weeks, at least, they can’t

And Ocasio-Cortez is, on the substance, correct. New York City is extraordinarily diverse, already home to thriving immigrant populations and many Spanish-speaking neighborhoods. The social safety net that has been built to absorb immigrants and new citizens is entirely alien to DeSantis and Abbott. Public hospitals treat the poorest of the poor. Public colleges offer tuition scholarships, regardless of immigration status. Municipal ID cards allow anyone to open a bank account. Undocumented immigrants are now allowed to have a driver’s license too.

These are all strengths of New York, not weaknesses. The migrant crisis at the southern border is very real, and the left can’t pretend it doesn’t exist. An open border policy is not feasible. What is crucial is immigration reform that can offer a viable, seamless path to citizenship for those who want it and that can allow refugees to get work quickly. It was always a canard that low-wage immigrant workers undercut the employment of American citizens—they were, almost always, performing the sort of punishing work that most Americans would rather not do at all—but it is even less true now, in an economy where demand for service-sector work remains robust. Many employers are still struggling to fill job openings. This is especially true in New York, where restaurants can’t return to their pre-pandemic hours because of a lack of waitstaff and cooks.

Eric Adams, the Democratic mayor of New York City, has offered a muddled response since migrants first began showing up months ago. Unlike AOC, he has not unambiguously touted New York as a mecca for all those seeking refuge. Rather, Adams has mulled the possibility of weakening the city’s right-to-shelter provision, a sweeping law that guarantees space in a homeless shelter for anyone who needs it. At first blush, his perspective is reasonable—more than 11,000 migrants have come to New York since May. The city’s shelter population has grown by more than 5,000 since the beginning of August, reaching 56,000.

But that number, while troubling, is still not the 60,000 the city sheltered in 2016 under Mayor Bill de Blasio. De Blasio never at any point contemplated reevaluating New York’s landmark housing law. A competent government can manage the migrant surge and eventually connect these refugees to jobs and permanent housing. Many will be eager to leave the shelters anyway. If the influx of migrants ever proves too much for New York to properly manage, the federal government should intervene and ensure that other cities are ready to absorb them.

If the Biden administration wants to get ambitious about reviving the ailing cities of the Rust Belt, federal officials could actively help migrants relocate there. The federal government could coordinate with mayors and governors ahead of time, instead of busing migrants without warning to politically expedient locales, like DeSantis and Abbott did. Cities such as Cleveland, Detroit, and St. Louis have long bled residents and would be well served with a new class of immigrants enthusiastic about finding work and wanting to remain in a country far more stable than their homeland. Refugees, in great enough numbers, could begin to repopulate vacant neighborhoods, launch new businesses, and eventually create new generations of taxpayers. Some may even decide they want, in the years to come, to move to Florida or Texas. Perhaps by then, the governors of those states will perceive them, simply, as Americans.

That may be optimistic. I know that many cities are stretched thin in terms of shelters and services for their large homeless populations. I would expect some pushback. On the other hand, these people are able bodied refugees and can, as the author states, work and if there is some help with housing (not an easy thing these days) they could certainly support themselves as they await their hearings.

There’s not reason that America cannot easily absorb these asylum seekers. Blue states and cities can show the way and prove to un-brainwashed Americans that this hysteria is a bunch of malarky.

Returning to the scene of the crime

Trump goes back to Mar-a-Lago

He even admits it’s the scene of the crime. He just doesn’t admit that he’s the one who committed it. Here’s what he allegedly found:

Heavens! They didn’t take off their shoes in his bedroom to spare that hideous carpet? Off with their heads!

And I guess he doesn’t have any help there at his beach club who could have cleaned up the place before he got in? They just left everything lying all over the place after it had been “ransacked?” I’d say someone needs to be “sacked.”

Free speech zealots banning books

Turns out free speech is only for them. Surprise.

Right wingers are always going on about how they are being silenced and oppressed. So they are banning books and curtailing free speech. In their view the first amendment is the freedom not to allow other people to say things they don’t like.

Texas banned more books from school libraries this past year than any other state in the nation, targeting titles centering on race, racism, abortion and LGBTQ representation and issues, according to a new analysis by PEN America, a nonprofit organization advocating for free speech.

The report released on Monday found that school administrators in Texas have banned 801 books across 22 school districts, and 174 titles were banned at least twice between July 2021 through June 2022. PEN America defines a ban as any action taken against a book based on its content after challenges from parents or lawmakers.

The most frequent books removed included “Gender Queer: A Memoir” by Maia Kobabe, which depicts Kobabe’s journey of gender identity and sexual orientation; “The Bluest Eye” by Toni Morrison; “Roe v. Wade: A Woman’s Choice?” by Susan Dudley Gold; “Out of Darkness” by Ashley Hope Pérez, which follows a love story between a Mexican American teenage girl and a Black teen boy in 1930s East Texas; and “All Boys Aren’t Blue” by George M. Johnson, a personal account of growing up black and queer in Plainfield, New Jersey.

“This censorious movement is turning our public schools into political battlegrounds, driving wedges within communities, forcing teachers and librarians from their jobs, and casting a chill over the spirit of open inquiry and intellectual freedom that underpin a flourishing democracy,” Suzanne Nossel, PEN America’s chief executive officer, said in a statement.

Across the country, PEN America found that 1,648 unique titles had been banned by schools. Of these titles, 41% address LGBTQ themes or have protagonists or prominent secondary characters who are LGBTQ. Another 40% of these books contains protagonists or prominent secondary characters of color.

Summer Lopez, the chief program officer of free expression at PEN America, said what’s notable about these book bans is that most are on books that families and children can elect to read, not any required reading.

Florida and Pennsylvania followed Texas as the states with the most bans, respectively. Florida banned 566 books, and 457 titles were banned in Pennsylvania, where a majority of books were removed from one school district in York County, which is known as being more conservative.

Lopez said her organization could not recall a previous year with as many reported book bans.

“This rapidly accelerating movement has resulted in more and more students losing access to literature that equips them to meet the challenges and complexities of democratic citizenship,” Jonathan Friedman, director of PEN America’s free expression and education programs and the lead author of the report, said in a statement.

In Oklahoma you can’t even tell your students how to access books in a library that allows some of these banned books:

Wendy Suares, an anchor at KOKH FOX 25, reported on Twitter that a teacher at Norman High School in Norman, Oklahoma, was fired for speaking to students about the Brooklyn Public Library’s initiative to make books—especially frequently-challenged books—accessible to students around the country. She also shared the above QR code from the library, which leads to more information about the project, Books Unbanned.

The Brooklyn Public Library announced the initiative in April following reports from around the country that school districts were pulling books on LGBTQ identity and race from libraries, a phenomenon that has been denounced by PEN America, the American Library Association, and many others. It made free eCards available for anyone in the country between the ages of 13 and 21, giving them access to tens of thousands of books and online databases.

Suares reported that the same school district was also pulling books off the shelves of classroom libraries “that don’t have 2 research articles demonstrating their value. Teachers were given virtually no time to accomplish this so students returned to classes with empty bookshelves.” (What constitutes a “research article” in this instance is unclear.)

She ended up having to resign. I’m sure other teachers in Oklahoma won’t be making tht mistake.

When you hear these whiners going on about being oppressed and cancel culture remember who’s doing the oppressing and the cancelling. And the banning.

Sore Losers all the way down

The Big Lie is alive and well

Days before the 2016 election, candidate Donald Trump stood before a throng of ecstatic followers and said, “I would like to promise and pledge to all of my voters and supporters and to all of the people of the United States that I will totally accept the results of this great and historic presidential election — if I win.” Indeed he did pull out a narrow electoral victory, even though Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million. There was plenty of carping. There were street protests. But nobody stormed the U.S. Capitol or enlisted Democratic officials in various states to sign fraudulent elector statements in the hopes of getting Congress to overturn the result in defiance of the Constitution. Clinton conceded the next day, although no one’s pretending she was happy about it. Democrats grumbled about the antiquated system that elected the last two Republican presidents with a minority of the popular vote, but everyone moved on.

There’s no need to recapitulate what happened in 2020. We are all too aware of it, mostly because Trump and his allies won’t let anyone forget it. He made it clear from the beginning that it was simply not possible for him to lose and now we can see that he’s convinced a large number of candidates for office, as well as their voters, that it holds true for them too. The Big Lie is alive and well.

According to FiveThirtyEight, 60% of American voters have an election denier on the ballot where they live. Both the New York Times and the Washington Post reported over the weekend about election deniers running for office around the country who have refused to say whether they will accept the results of their own upcoming elections. The Post surveyed 19 important statewide races, and only seven Republican candidates said they would accept the results while 18 of the 19 Democrats said they would. (The other Democrat didn’t respond.) The Times noted that a few of those GOP candidates seem to be posturing in order to appeal to Trump voters who’ve bought into the big lie, quoting an aide who said on background that their candidate would certainly accept the results but just couldn’t say so in public. That’s what passes for integrity in Republican politics these days.

Amusingly, a number of defeated Republicans in this year’s primary elections have claimed that the votes were rigged, proving just how deep this conspiracy goes. Axios reports that losing GOP candidates in Michigan, Colorado, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and Florida have all claimed their elections were tainted. Even some winners complained. Arizona’s GOP nominee for secretary of state, state Rep. Mark Finchem, a hardcore 2020 election denier, claimed that “people all over the state [are] saying, ‘I’ve gotten ballots that I didn’t ask for.'” Presumably he doesn’t believe his own primary win was dubious, but these people are so far down the rabbit hole that you never know.

There has also been a recent spate of articles from various political number-crunchers warning that Democrats should be wary of getting it into their heads that they can win this midterm election. The momentum certainly seems to be moving their way, but these observers suggest that’s a mirage: Polling in both 2016 and 2020 failed to capture Republican voters, who showed up in greater numbers than expected. (In the 2018 midterms the polls were pretty accurate. But because historically the party in power loses seats in midterm elections, somehow that doesn’t count.)

Data analysts don’t know what’s going on with these invisible or “shy” Republican voters, but at least one pollster — who is generally considered right-leaning — says it’s because GOP voters are sensitive to what strangers who call them on the phone might think of them:

He claims that Joe Biden’s comments have created an “army” of these hidden voters who are impossible to poll, “even for us.” These shy voters aren’t like the MAGA fans who put Trump flags on their pickup trucks, but according to this theory they are so traumatized on behalf of the good folks who wear “Fuck your feelings” T-shirts in public and worship a man who calls Democrats, “disgusting,” “depraved,” “treasonous” and every other gross insult known to man that they won’t even admit to a pollster who they are going to vote for.

This pollster’s data may be valid, but his analysis is just an personal opinion. In my opinion, it’s highly doubtful that GOP voters aren’t responding to pollsters because their feelings got hurt. Trump voters don’t strike me as shrinking violets. I would guess they don’t respond because Trump has told them that you can’t trust anyone but him and his designated associates. Since he says any poll that shows he isn’t winning by a landslide is in the tank, and all polls, even the right-leaning ones, do show that from time to time, his followers are required to discount and distrust all polling. They have swallowed Trump’s belief that the only way Democrats can win is by cheating and that any polls which show Republicans losing are by definition rigged. Why participate in a rigged game?

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight threw some cold water on this whole thing anyway, noting that none of this is quite as predictable as one might think:

People’s concerns about the polls stem mostly from a sample of exactly two elections, 2020 and 2016. You can point out that polls also had a Democratic bias in 2014. But, of course, they had a Republican bias in 2012, were largely unbiased in 2018, and have either tended to be unbiased or had a Republican bias in recent special elections.

True, in 2020 and 2016, polls were off the mark in a large number of races and states. But the whole notion of a systematic polling error is that it’s, well, systematic: It affects nearly all races, or at least the large majority of them. There just isn’t a meaningful sample size to work with here, or anything close to it.

The consequences of this belief that the polls are definitely wrong, however, could be profound. It feeds into the idea that if Democrats do manage to hold onto one or both houses of Congress — even Silver’s site forecasts that it’s fairly likely they will win the Senate — it cannot be legitimate. It will give all those election deniers still more fodder for the belief that they’re being cheated, and we’ll see yet more lies by cynical GOP politicians who see an upside to losing: It’s a chance to delegitimize a Democratic majority and nurse the grievance and delusions of their Trump-crazed base. OK, it’s not quite as good as winning, but it pays the bills — and our already fragile democracy frays just a little bit more. 

Who created the brochure?

Migrants DeSantis flew to Martha’s Vineyard were conned

Judd Legum of Popular Information this morning has “documentary evidence that migrants from Venezuela were provided with false information to convince them to board flights chartered by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R). The documents suggest that the flights were not just a callous political stunt but potentially a crime.”

They were provided with a phony brochure touting benefits they’d receive in Massachusetts. Their applications for asylum in progress, they were legally allowed to travel within the United States. Some were told they would get expedited work permits in Boston if they boarded the planes DeSantis sent to Texas to fetch them:

The allegation that the migrants were misled is legally significant. It would mean that the flights were not just heartless, but potentially criminal. If the migrants were misled, the scheme to transport them to Martha’s Vineyard could constitute fraud, false imprisonment, or kidnapping. “There is absolutely the possibility of both civil and criminal liability if people were lied to about where they were going [or]  what they were going to get when they got there,” lawyer Susan Church told Politico

DeSantis has been adamant that the migrants were not misled. He claims that migrants were provided with a map showing the destination was Martha’s Vineyard and describes the flights as “all voluntary.” Appearing on Fox News on Sunday Morning, Florida Lt. Governor Jeanette Nunez (R) called allegations that the migrants were misled “categorically false.” 

Popular Information, however, has obtained a brochure that was provided to the migrants who ultimately agreed to the flights. It was provided to Popular Information by Lawyers for Civil Rights (LCR), a Boston-based legal organization that represents 30 of the migrants. The brochure says that migrants who arrive in Massachusetts will be eligible for numerous benefits, including “8 months cash assistance,” “assistance with housing,” “food,” “clothing,” “transportation to job interviews,” “job training,” “job placement,” “registering children for school,” “assistance applying for Social Security cards,” and many other benefits. 

None of this, however, is true.

See above.

Matt Cameron, a Boston-based immigration attorney, explained that the benefits described in the brochure are resettlement benefits available to refugees who have been referred by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and authorized to live in the United States. These benefits are not available in Massachusetts to the migrants who boarded the flights, who are still in the process of seeking asylum. 

The migrants who boarded the planes “absolutely do not have access to cash, housing, and other resettlement benefits which are provided through both federal funds and partnerships with faith-based [organizations],” Cameron said.  

More to come, undoubtedly. DeSantis’ office did not answer a request for comment. Probably busy trying to designate a fall guy.

Brace for the one-downmanship between DeSantis and Donald Trump.

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Is a storm brewing?

They don’t want to govern. They want to rule.

A storm to the west in Alaska. A storm to the east in Puerto Rico where power is out across the island. The QAnon cult dreams The Storm will restore power to its would-be sovereign while Britain mourns the passing of one across the sea. Let’s just stop there.

Donld Trump and the extremist right are on a mission from God, and not in The Blues Brothers sense.

While Trump cultivates QAnon for the next time he needs a violent mob, Doug Mastriano, the Republican nominee for governor of Pennsylvania, is going Old Testament with his rallies. Fred Clarkson of Political Research Associates noticed that as early as July:

Some religious leaders who back Mastriano’s campaign say they are in direct communication with God, see themselves as God’s army, and see Mastriano as a general in their war for the world.

Mastriano’s core support is a fusion of QAnon, the far-right Patriot movement and the revivalist New Apostolic Reformation — which views him as a military and political leader in advancing the biblically prophesied end times. We see this in his role in the Jericho March during the run-up to Jan. 6, and more recently when he joined members of the “Shofar Army” in a ceremony of “spiritual warfare” on the Gettysburg battlefield, and as the headliner at a conference, Patriots Arise.

This is not just metaphorical warfare. Trump’s violent rhetoric primed his followers for their assault on the U.S. Capitol. The symbolism in these revival-style rallies and ceremonies suggests more of the same. André Gagné, professor of theological studies at Concordia University in Montreal, believes they potentially build “a bridge between the language of ‘spiritual warfare’ and the physical realm.”

The alt-right has been itching for a second civil war. Oath Keepers stashed weapons outside D.C. ahead of Jan. 6 to be ready for armed combat. What the religious lean of rallies since then suggests is a marriage of religion and politics.

Jennifer Mercieca re-offered several threads on the deification of Donald Trump.

As the English bury their queen, Trumpers are resurrecting the divine right of kings, Mercieca believes:


And this brings us to Trump’s current claims that he is a Forever President (President Eternal) who will always have the protections of the Executive Branch, even though he is the FPOTUS. Read @AshaRangappa_ & I on why it’s bunk:

The FBI’s Mar-a-Lago Search Was 2,500 Years in the Making | EssayDemocracy Requires Equality Before the Law—And That Includes Ex-Presidents.https://www.zocalopublicsquare.org/2022/08/31/fbi-search-equality-before-the-law/ideas/essay/

And I just remembered that I used “President Eternal” before 😳

When Trump is deified, is treated as being guided by God or is God-like himself, this is the “divine-right of Kings narrative” taking over a major American political party. In this narrative the king is unquestionable because he represents the authority of God on earth.

Like I said yesterday, this is pre-Enlightenment rationality in political theory. The American Revolution denied the divine-right of kings narrative, it’s anti-American. Yet, Trump claims to be the apotheosis of American exceptionalism and America itself. 

Words like “Christofascism” are apt to describe what Trump, et al are up to, but I worry it seems too foreign for American ears (ears that want to hear American exceptionalism). Perhaps the “divine right of kings” language is more persuasive to folks who value American freedom. 

Trump’s divine-right narrative brings him sycophants who predictably follow power. Those sycophants (& all who profit from Trump’s power) have a real interest in maintaining the fiction of Trump’s divine-right narrative. They’ll prop him up until he loses his supporters.


I’ve said for years that for all its patriotic pretensions, American conservatism contains a not-so-latent royalist strain. Even the “divine right of kings” is too abstract a phrasing. They’re not small-D democrats and not Amercans except by citizenship. They’re royalists. Royalists implies a king, divine or otherwise. They don’t want to govern. They want to rule.

Watch this carefully. The next Oklahoma City won’t come out of nowhere. Brick by brick, rally by rally, extremists are building a religious justification for it.

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Request a copy of For The Win, 4th Edition, my free, countywide get-out-the-vote planning guide for county committees at ForTheWin.us

Calculating your odds

How likely are you to get COVID these days?

I confess that I don’t do this kind of calculation but I instinctively come down pretty much in the same place anyway. I’m fully vaxed and boosted, I have avoided the virus so far, would certainly get Paxlovid if I do get it and am healthy. But at my age, you can’t be too careful so I’m pretty much where Dr. Bob Wachter is in this thread. Perhaps the more nerdy among you will enjoy his more elaborate risk calculation:

Covid (@UCSF) Chronicles, Day 915
As I hoped https://mobile.twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1558234980706164736 , cases in the U.S. have dropped steadily. Up until now, I’ve avoided indoor dining and worn a mask in all crowded indoor spaces. I’m now ready to eat indoors & (selectively) remove the mask. Here’s why: (1/25)

As I said recently, my threshold to liberalize my behavior is <5 cases/100K/d in my region. (After accounting for home tests, 5/100K/d is really ~25/100K/d.) U.S. is now at 19, CA is at 12, & SF is at 6 (& fell 64% in past 2 wks). Find your # here:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html (2/25)

Asymptomatic test positivity rate @UCSFHospitals now 1.6% (⬇from 4-6% in early Aug). This means that ~1/60 people who feel OK would test pos. for Covid. We use a PCR-like test, which will stay pos. for ~14 days on average, whereas the avg. period of infectiousness is ~8d. (3/25)

So while 1/60 asymptomatic people will test positive for Covid today in SF, ~1/100 will be infectious. Let’s use that (1%) as our #.
If each person has a 1/100 chance of being infectious, in a group of 10 people there’s a 9.6% chance that at least one will be infectious. (4/25)

(In a group of 150, say on a packed plane, there’s a 78% chance ≥1 is infectious – which is why I’ll continue to wear a mask on planes & in crowded indoor spaces when I don’t need to talk to anyone, probably forever. I figure, why take ANY risk in situations like these?) (5/25)

OK, so if I dine today in a restaurant in SF, there’s a 1 in 10 chance that at least one infectious person will be nearby. How risky is that?
The household attack rate for Omicron is about 40%… and that’s with prolonged indoor exposure to a family member or roommate. (6/25)

How risky is a meal-length exposure to an infectious person? Dunno; so many variables – ventilation, distance, vax status. Let’s say there’s a 10% odds of infection. If so (& 1-in-10 odds of an infectious person), that’s a 1% chance of being infected during an indoor meal. (7/25)

Now’s when your own risk status & tolerance kicks in. Is 1% chance of getting infected too high? For my 86-year-old mom I think it is, since (even with her 5 vax’s–she got her bivalent last wk) she has a ~5x ⬆chance than me of dying if she gets Covid. And she’s in Boca,…(8/25)

…which is running 20 cases/100K/d, or 3.5x SF’s rate of 6 – making her chances of exposure that much higher.
(By the way, she’s mostly not listening to me since for her the costs of social isolation are too high and her friends are all eating indoors. Which I understand.)(9/25)

For me, as a healthy vaxxed/boosted 64-year-old in SF, I think the risk has dropped to acceptable levels – though I’ll still favor eating outdoors when feasible (where the risk is ~nil).
How does booster status influence this? I’ve had 2 primary shots, 2 boosters, &… (10/25)

… got my bivalent yesterday. I’ll start crediting my booster as further ⬇my odds of infection next week; it’ll reach peak efficacy after 2 wks. How much will it lower the odds? Studies of the mRNA vaccines in Omicron era show that its efficacy in preventing infection… (11/25)

…is ~50% – far less than the 90% we saw pre-Omicron, but still something. Problem is that effect wanes to zero after 2 months. (The efficacy in preventing SEVERE infection/death is better & lasts much longer – the main rationale for boosters.)
Will the new bivalent vax…(12/25)

… prevent Covid for more months? Probably but no human data yet.
Whether it does or doesn’t, next week I’ll consider my odds of getting infected to be 50% lower. If prevalence in SF stays the same, this’ll make my new odds of being infected while eating indoors 1 in 200.(13/25)

What if I do get infected? While asymptomatic infections happen, I’ll assume that – at best – I’ll feel crummy for several days, need to isolate for ~1 wk, & have a chance of infecting others – all things I’d like to avoid.
But what are odds of the 2 really bad outcomes: (14/25)

1) A severe acute case of acute Covid, and
2) Long Covid?
Viz #1, the current case-fatality rate in those fully boosted is about 0.1% (similar to flu) – it’s much higher in the unvaxxed and unboosted, & it’s influenced by the usual risk factors. https://www.ft.com/content/e26c93a0-90e7-4dec-a796-3e25e94bc59b (15/25)

At a 0.1% infection-fatality rate, the odds of death-by-indoor-meal would be ~1 in 100,000 (1/100 risk of infection x 1/1000 risk of death). And I’d take Paxlovid if I got Covid, which should ⬇it by another ~50% (efficacy of Pax in vaxxed people https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35653428/), (16/25)

… which would ultimately place my estimated chances of dying from my indoor maskless dinner at 1-in-200,000. This is consistent with other risks we all take to do some things we enjoy. https://theconversation.com/whats-most-likely-to-kill-you-measuring-how-deadly-our-daily-activities-are-72505 (17/25)

I’m far more worried about Long Covid. Odds of getting LC from a single case is ~10-20% in unvaxxed; it drops by ~50% in vaxxed. Let’s say it’s 5% – that’d mean that my 1/100 chance of getting Covid from a single meal would translate into a 1 in 2,000 chance of getting LC.(18/25)

I’m also persuaded that my case of Covid will increase my odds over time of having a heart attack, stroke, diabetes, & cognitive decline. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01689-3 The magnitude of that increase isn’t well established. As a back-of-the-envelope, let’s guess it’ll be of … (19/25)

…similar magnitude to the risk of symptomatic Long Covid. If so, that would make the overall odds of a negative long-term bad effect from a case of Covid in a vaxxed/boosted person 10% per case (5% risk of symptomatic LC; 5% increase in odds of long-term bad outcome). (20/25)

So, putting it all together, at current prevalence levels in San Francisco, the rough odds following a single indoor meal here (if 10 people are in aerosol range) for someone vaccinated (but not boosted or infected in the past 2-3 months) would be: (21/25)

• Being exposed to someone with Covid at dinner: ~1/10
• Getting Covid from the dinner: ~1/100
• Getting some version of Long Covid (protracted symptoms and/or ⬆risk of a bad outcome): 1/1000
• Dying from Covid obtained at dinner (if one takes Paxlovid): 1 in 200,000 (22/25)

Two weeks after taking the bivalent booster (or having a new infection), I’d lower the odds of getting Covid by 50% (to 1-in-200), which should proportionally lower the risk of both death and Long Covid. This benefit will likely last ~2 months, maybe more w/ bivalent vax. (23/25)

If you’ve been in careful mode, as I’ve been, are these risks now low enough to enjoy indoor dining in SF? To me, they are.
Are they low enough to leave the mask off when entering an uncrowded indoor space or having a small group work meeting? To me, yes.
(24/25)

Are they low enough to ditch the mask in a crowded & poorly ventilated indoor space or on an airplane? For me, the answer’s still no. And would they be low enough in a place w/ >10 cases/100K/d? To me, not yet.
For you? Your call. I hope this helps you think it through. (25/end)

Originally tweeted by Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) on September 18, 2022.

Yep. Masks for me in crowded, indoor spaces with poor ventilation and airplanes. Indoor restaurants ok, but outdoor still preferred. Your mileage may vary.