Month: November 2022

I’m talking about Ron not Don

This piece by Jill Lawrence has it right:

In 2008, when he clinched the Democratic presidential nomination, Barack Obama said he wanted to bring about “the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.” In 2016, discussing his superior knowledge of our “rigged” system in accepting the GOP presidential nomination, Donald Trump declared that “I alone can fix it.” And in 2022, a Ron DeSantis ad suggested that on the eighth day, God created … Ron DeSantis. 

The Florida governor’s hold my beer moment sets a standard that may last for eternity, so to speak. And it’s tempting to laugh. But after his 19% margin win on Tuesday over Democrat Charlie Crist, DeSantis may in fact be the Republican Party’s savior. Somebody needs to deliver the GOP from Trump, and from that victory margin to his polling ahead of the former president, signs point to DeSantis as The One. 

The Florida governor’s hold my beer moment sets a standard that may last for eternity, so to speak.

Some conservatives are fed up with Trump and how he destroyed their electoral fortunes by endorsing and promoting a uniquely terrible collection of 2022 candidates. The cheeky right-aligned New York Post on Wednesday ran a “DeFuture” cover of the DeSantis family (“Young GOP star DeSantis romps to victory in Florida”). On Thursday the tabloid featured Trump as Trumpty-Dumpty and said, “Don (who couldn’t build a wall) had a great fall.” 

The backlash and back-to-back insults were enough to kick-start the 2024 campaign, or at least Trump’s personal campaign to keep DeSantis out of the race. Trump versus DeSantis is a fight between two men with messiah complexes who want us to believe each is the leader America needs. Neither is, and if we’re lucky, the battle that their outsize egos unleash will ruin them both long before Election Day 2024.

In a diatribe Thursday night on his social media platform, Truth Social, debuting some of his lines of attack, Trump called DeSantis “an average REPUBLICAN Governor with great Public Relations” who owes his career to Trump. “Ron came to me in desperate shape in 2017 … politically dead, losing in a landslide,” the former president said. He accused DeSantis of disloyalty for not ruling out a 2024 race and also went after “NewsCorp, which is Fox, the Wall Street Journal, and the no longer great New York Post” for being “all in for Governor Ron DeSanctimonious.” 

President Joe Biden, who has indicated he intends a run for re-election, told reporters, “It’d be fun watching” Trump and DeSantis fight it out. No kidding. Two obnoxiously overconfident MAGA males who think they know what’s best for everyone, going at it in a 2024 warm-up that could be an elimination round? Democrats would be trampling each other to get to the popcorn.

DeSantis made a solid bid to be America’s redeemer in chief in a video his wife posted Nov. 4 on Twitter. “And on the 8th day, God looked down on his planned paradise and said, ‘I need a protector.’ So God made a fighter,” the narrator says over an image of DeSantis among adoring fans.

God is mentioned 10 times in less than two minutes in the clip, prompting Mike Allen of Axios to publish a parody in his publication’s trademarked “smart brevity” format:

Breaking: God apparently endorsed Ron DeSantis (R) for reelection, according to the Florida governor’s new ad.

· Why it matters: It would be the first time God officially endorsed a statewide candidate.

[…]

That’s funny, but the actual ad is enraging and scary. DeSantis is no messiah for supporters of abortion access, voting rights, tighter gun laws, public health expertise, a diverse, tolerant America and a government that puts all religions — and the roughly 3 in 10 Americans whose religious affiliation is “none” — on equal footing. DeSantis even signed a law restricting abortion at a church.

The “God” ad describes DeSantis as a person who gets up before dawn, leaves his family and travels thousands of miles to “serve the people”; someone who “isn’t afraid to defend what he knows to be right and just.” HE KNOWS. When Trump calls him “Ron DeSanctimonious,” the undisputed master of evil nicknames is spot on, as usual.

And yet, Trump is just as sure he is right, and just as sure of his godly support. As David French put it Thursday in The Atlantic, “Parts of the Christian base are convinced he has a divine destiny to save the nation.” There’s even a 2018 movie about it called “The Trump Prophecy.” Trump’s “I alone can fix it” line displayed Olympic-level narcissism and ignorance, and now — as he continues to bend, break and beat up our laws, politics and institutions — it is a dark, bottomless pit of irony. 

So is his win-loss record this week. We don’t know the final score yet, but it’s fair to say there might have been at least a pink wave if the GOP had nominated stronger contenders in federal and statewide races.

The following is a very good point that I haven’t heard anyone else make: America is not Florida:

Could Trump himself win another national election? His political history and ongoing legal crises point to a no. Could DeSantis win a national election? Doubtful. America is not Florida, as this week’s Republican disappointments outside the Sunshine State show. And his whole sent-by-God, father-knows-best schtick is not as enticing as he thinks it is. 

For purely selfish reasons, I hope DeSantis seizes the moment. This battle of the dictatorial titans may be the best way to truly save America — from four years of either one of them.

I couldn’t agree more.

Ed Kilgore runs down the good news:

Democrats predictably flipped two governorships in deep-blue states anachronistically held by term-limited moderate (and anti-Trump) Republicans, Maryland and Massachusetts, securing trifecta control in both with Wes Moore in the former state and Maura Healey in the latter. Beyond that, Democrats mostly fended off threats to the governorships they already controlled.

I’ll just interject here that it appears Democratic voters in those Blue states may have also finally figured out that voting “R”, no matter who the person is is a bad idea. It just emboldens the far right. It appears that for the most part ticket splitting happened in red states, not blue.

Republicans were optimistic early in the cycle about knocking off Democratic incumbents in Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, and Wisconsin, and winning open Democratic-controlled governorships in Oregon and Pennsylvania (right at the end they also thought in a wave election they might pick off New York, too). But instead Laura Kelly of Kansas won a close race against Republican attorney general Derek Schmidt, and Tony Evers of Wisconsin turned back a big challenge from Republican businessman-outsider Tim Michels. Other Democratic incumbents won more comfortably. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan beat MAGA champion Tudor Dixon by ten points; Tim Walz of Minnesota defeated Republican state legislator Scott Jensen by seven points; and Michelle Lujan Grisham won over former local TV meteorologist Mark Ronchetti by six points. The GOP candidates in all these races were considered quite viable at one point or another. In Maine, Democratic incumbent Janet Mills trounced former two-term GOP governor Paul LePage by 13 points in a highly cathartic win for her party.

Democrats suffered one loss by an incumbent governor: Nevada’s Steve Sisolak lost a close race to Republican Joe Lombardo in a state where nearly every contest was a barnburner.

In the open governorships, Pennsylvania Democratic attorney general Josh Shapiro disposed of the Trump-backed extremist Doug Mastriano by 14 points, and in a mild but very nice surprise for Democrats in Oregon, Tina Kotek came from behind to defeat Republican legislator Christine Drazan, who had led in nearly every poll since the race began.

There are two unresolved gubernatorial races. In Alaska, Republican incumbent Mike Dunleavy is currently at 52 percent with 80 percent of the vote in; even if he slips below a majority he probably has enough support to survive a ranked-choice showdown with either Democrat Les Gara or indie Bill Walker; the results will be finalized by November 23. And in Arizona, an open governorship now controlled by Republicans, Democratic attorney general Katie Hobbs has a small lead over MAGA candidate Kari Lake with more than 83 percent of the vote in. All in all, it was a good cycle for Democratic gubernatorial candidates, considering the usual losses the non-White House party has in midterms. (Democrats netted seven governorships in 2018.)

Democrats needed those governorships with the threat of election denial hanging over everything. All it would take is a couple of states to gum up the works in 2024 to throw the electoral college into chaos. But it wasn’t just the governors:

Democrats also did relatively well in closely contested state legislatures. They flipped both chambers in Michigan, along with the Minnesota House and the Pennsylvania House. The have a chance of winning control in Arizona as well while holding off Republican drives to flip legislature chambers in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, and Nevada. They increased the number of state government “trifectas” they hold to 18 (they held 14 before this election) compared to 23 for Republicans (who are still benefitting from the huge state gains they made back in 2010).

Perhaps most significantly, a MAGA effort to take over the election machinery in likely 2024 battleground states appears to have fallen short. Election deniers Kristina Karamo of Michigan, Kim Crockett of Minnesota, and Doug Mastriano of Pennsylvania (where the governor controls the election machinery) all definitively lost, while Mark Finchem of Arizona and Jim Marchant of Nevada both trail their opponents with votes still coming in.

All good news. But it wasn’t across the board and democrats will need to take a hard look at the places where Republicans did well to analyze why they were different:

In states where they performed well, they performed very well. That was most notable in Florida, where the GOP increased legislative margins significantly while winning every statewide office and carrying such Democratic bastions as Miami-Dade and Palm Beach County. In Georgia, Senator Raphael Warnock’s narrow vote margin over Herschel Walker obscured the fact that the rest of the Democratic ticket did poorly. In Iowa, which was a highly competitive state at every level as recently as 2012, two Democratic statewide elected officials who first won their offices in 1978 (Attorney General Tom Miller) and 1982 (State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald), and who have survived many big Republican wave elections, both lost this year. Ticket-splitting did not return everywhere.

So Iowa and Florida are now solid Republican. Georgia is still in transition. But overall, the Democrats held back the red tide. I suspect we may be in the pattern for a while yet.

This analysis of the GOP primary electorate sounds right to me. But it doesn’t tell the whole story:

Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, says the party’s electorate can be divided into three key buckets. A small group, roughly 10 percent, are “Never Trumpers,” Republicans who have long and vocally opposed Trump. A far larger group, about 40 percent, are “Always Trumpers,” his hardcore base that will never abandon him.

The remaining 50 percent or so, Ayres said, are “Maybe Tumpers” — Republicans who voted for him twice, who generally like his policies but who are now eager to escape the chaos that accompanies him.

“So they are open to supporting someone else who will do much of what they want without all of the baggage,” Ayres said. “So then the question becomes: Who?”

It’s the 40%, stupid. Trump controls them. And unless you believe he would gracefully concede a primary loss and swing his support to the winner, he will keep them. There is no chance of a general election win without Trump getting his 40% behind the winner. Is there any chance of that?

Lol. No. And deep down these Republicans know this.

Stephen Miller is upset at the Republicans:

Former Trump White House senior adviser Stephen Miller laid out a number of issues that he saw as the reason Republicans failed to materialize a “red wave” during the midterm elections during an appearance on Fox’s “Sunday Morning Futures,” including issues with funding and messaging.

Driving the news: Democrats have clinched control of the Senate while the House remains too close to call, with Republicans leading by a thin margin.

The big picture: Miller pointed to mail-in voting as one hurdle for Republicans, claiming that by the time Republican Mehmet Oz began to resurge in the polls for his U.S. Senate race closer to election day, many people had already cast their ballots.

“The financial disparity between the Democrats and Republicans is still enormous, particularly at the top of the ticket,” Miller said, adding that Sen. Mark Kelly’s (D-Ariz.) campaign “drowned” out that of Trump-backed challenger Blake Masters.

“We have to note the extraordinarily fateful decision on the part of the senate leadership fund and Mitch McConnell to take the money that should have been spent in Arizona to get Blake up on TV early on, and instead give it to Lisa Murkowski for a Republican battle against the Republican-backed nominee in Alaska,” he said.

The third reason behind the lack of a red wave was the “need to win independent voters by seizing on winning wedge issues and fighting for them with every breath that you have,” Miller said, noting that Democrats do this more successfully than Republicans.

Miller pointed to abortion as an example. “Democrats don’t need it to be a majority issue, they just need it to be an issue that they can target and activate the right voters with, with overwhelming enthusiasm. “

Miller said that Democrats’ intention to secure abortion rights if they won Congress was certain, while Republicans’ ability to “shut down the border crisis” if they won both chambers of Congress was not.

The bottom line: If issues like the border crisis and crime are just “election day talking points, you’re not going to break through the funding disparity, you’re not going to break through the media bias, you’re not going to break through to independent voters, you’re not going to break through to any human being alive in a swing state,” Miller said.

“So you’re going to lose these close races because the Republican brand, set by Mitch McConnell on down, is not exciting, is not persuasive, is not convincing to voters,” Miller said.

I guess it doesn’t occur to him that it might have been his grotesque, racist campaign that turned the tide:

“When did racism against white people become OK?” the ad begins. “Joe Biden put white people last in line for Covid relief funds. Kamala Harris said disaster aid should go to non-white citizens first. Liberal politicians block access to medicine based on skin color. Progressive corporations, airlines, universities all openly discriminate against white Americans. Racism is always wrong. The left’s anti-white bigotry must stop. We are all entitled to equal treatment under the law.”

Hilarious piece of mail from @America1stLegal. There’s a lot to unpack but first, stop trying to lump Asian Americans with white Americans knowing our privileges are not the same, nor do you advocate for us. pic.twitter.com/FvUVbP89S1

— f a i t h (@faithtasticness) November 1, 2022

@America1stLegal really wants to remove racial bias by implementing racial bias! And then sends the flyer to an Asian. How freaking high are you people? pic.twitter.com/rKTt5KGbu4

— Aldrin 🛑 (@aldrinatanu) October 29, 2022

I would bet that there were more than a few voters who were disgusted by this garbage. Stephen Miller should look in the mirror.

Keeping it may require attitude adjustment

Jason Kander in the Kansas City Star:

Democracy is supposed to be dead today.

The authoritarian forces in the Republican Party who brought us the Dobbs Supreme Court decision were well on their way to a red wave large enough to complete their long-pursued American Ragnarök. Poised to sweep state legislatures, secretary of state offices and even the U.S. Senate with wide margins, they’d be in a position to strike a series of fatal blows.

The rest of us would wake up on Nov. 9, 2022, with the same thousand-yard stare we’d worn on Nov. 9, 2016 — except this time it’d be worse, because it would be permanent.

First we’d ask, “What the hell happened?” And then we’d pivot to blaming this unceremonious end of the American experiment on “Democrats” and “bad messaging.” Meanwhile, budding fascists at Turning Point USA would delightfully post memes of us crying, and Mitch McConnell would say something vacuous and faux-inspiring about “freedom” to a thunderous crowd of suits who donated more than I paid for my house in exchange for the Senate majority leader’s cellphone number.

We’d have explanations about voter suppression and gerrymandering and stolen Supreme Court seats, but it wouldn’t matter, because democracy would be dead and buried, replaced by a new system of exponentially increasing single-party control referred to as “democracy,” but only out of tradition — the way North Korea calls itself “the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.”

Spoiler alert. That did not happen. Not yet, anyway.

Michael Beschloss tweets, “Paraphrasing Benjamin Franklin in Philadelphia 1787, we have the happiness to be shown once again this week that our sacred American democracy is a rising and not a setting sun.”

“The thing about trying to assassinate democracy is that failing has consequences. Once a people realize someone has tried to take away their right to self-determination, they awake from their doldrums …” Kander explains.

Don’t be a buzzkill

Remind everyone you know under 30, under 45, that their votes in 2022 saved the country from American Ragnarök. (Retweet a link, maybe?) The last thing to do is to take what they did for granted. Make a fuss. Younger voters may not have stormed the beaches at Normandy, but their votes helped stem the red tide, even if they did not turn it back entirely. Reinforce that behavior. Scooby snacks. Be liberal with praise, just for once. Even make it a habit.

The bane of progressives is not just “budding fascists” but our own posturing cynicism.

"Democrats can be [buzzkills], right? Sometimes people just want to not feel as if they are walking on eggshells… and that all of us at any given moment can say things the wrong way, make mistakes."

Interview with @BarackObama out tonight on @SIRIUSXM and everywhere tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/xi65vTNWZH

— Pod Save America (@PodSaveAmerica) October 14, 2022

A few sours will complain that younger turnout was not enough here, or there, or as much as it might have been. Glass-half-empty progressive Eeyores’ first reflex is to complain about what the “establishment,” the neoliberals, the centrists, etc., did not deliver, that nothing is better than half a loaf. That’s a buzzkill. Ever notice how few want to join them?

Be winners. Be proud (but not haughty). Be the cool kids people want to hang with. Give voters under 30 and under 45 a reason to want to. We need each other.

Republicans will not be chastened. Hell no.

“There has been some mistake, clearly,” writes Alexandra Petri of the Amazing Disappearing Red Wave. The Washington Post’s “lighter take” columnist ponders adjustments Republicans will make to convince a wider swath of Americans they are not all  batshit crazy.

Give up forced-birth policies? Stop banning books? Ditch conspiracy theories? Welcome immigrants? Concede with grace? Oh, hell no!

The answer is simple: We have got to raise the voting age. Twenty-one? That might not be enough, honestly. Millennials are not as conservative as they ought to be and some of them are pushing 40 now. We should consider whether we might not want it to be higher than that. Fifty feels reasonable. A good, round number.

https://t.co/CQQxBLC1BG pic.twitter.com/99fQH3IWn7

— Michael de Adder (@deAdder) November 11, 2022

Petri is not far off. What happens each time Democrats win key races is Republican-controlled legislatures change the game, they hope, to improve their chances next time without changing themselves. Self-reflection is as much a sign of weakness as admitting error. True alpha males never do that.

As a former Hooters girl I can assure you only betas who liked to think they were 'alpha males' ate there.

And we all laughed when you left.
🍻

— Devanny Pinn (@DevannyPinn) November 7, 2022

Republicans once heavily promoted voting by mail. When Democrats began promoting it in numbers, Republicans turned against it.

Judge Michael Morgan, a black Democrat, won a North Carolina Supreme Court seat in 2016. He turned out 16-year incumbent Justice Robert H. Edmunds Jr. in a nonpartisan election. Republicans changed the rules for future elections to attach party labels to judicial candidates.

After Democrat Roy Cooper won a narrow victory for governor in 2016, Republicans in a lame duck session stripped the governorship of several appointment authorities and modified the makeup of the state elections board. Wisconsin Republicans treated incoming Democratic governor Tony Evers similarly two years later.

Requiring photo IDs, surgical gerrymandering, banning drop boxes, etc. (The ACLU has a list.) When in doubt, abuse the courts. Accuse opponents of cheating. Manipulate the electoral college process. Dismiss the will of voters and hand the choice of presidential electors to Republican legislatures. In 2021, violent insurrection was not out of the question.

“They cheated” appears to be the narrative. Again. pic.twitter.com/mvKXla2ZDx

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) November 13, 2022

Whenever I think the GOP has run out of angles for suppressing Democratic votes and rigging elections, they find another. Some as outlandish as criminalizing handing water to voters standing in lines. For the first time in my experience, multiple conservative voters alleged to election judges (different days and locations) that Democratic Party electioneering was harassment and/or illegal. I’ll be watching the new legislative session.

Republicans might put that creativity and cunning to work solving problems for struggling Americans of all colors and political persuasions. They could build a better America, improve more people’s lives, lighten their burdens, secure their health and futures. Spend more time governing than demolishing. But no.

Stay vigilant.

Can he manage the wingnuts? Does he want to?

What’s going to happen with abortion in Florida now that the right has run the table? Well…

Supercharged by a super majority in the House and Senate, Florida legislative leaders broke their silence Wednesday and confirmed they are prepared to discuss further abortion restrictions in Florida in the next year. But how far they will go is the big question, and interviews with the presiding officers indicate they already appear to be taking different approaches.

Incoming Senate President Kathleen Passidomo told the Miami Herald/Tampa Bay Times in an interview that she wants to see the 15-week ban approved last year by lawmakers reduced to 12 weeks with the addition of an exclusion for rape and incest, which is currently not allowed. TOP VIDEOS × “I went on record on the abortion bill in support of an exclusion for rape and incest, and I’d like to see that,’’ said Passidomo, a Naples Republican who will be sworn in this month as the third woman to be Florida’s Senate president. “And I think in order to accomplish that, I think we would have to reduce the weeks. I don’t have a problem going to 12 weeks.”

They are horsetrading with your bodies, ladies. Seriously. They are absolutely shameless in doing this.

Under the law passed earlier this year, all abortions are banned 15 weeks after a woman’s last menstrual period. Women can still obtain an abortion after that cutoff if their health is threatened or if their baby has a “fatal fetal abnormality,” but there is no exception for victims of rape or incest.

Incoming House Speaker Paul Renner, R-Palm Coast, said the House is likely to support additional restrictions as well but he was unwilling to “put a number on it.” “I don’t think it’s time for me to put a number on it until we’ve organized,’’ Renner said, noting that there are 30 new legislators joining the House after the election, including a record 85-member Republican majority.

He was not prepared to say if they will want to see an outright ban on all abortions or further limits on the existing 15-week ban. “I personally am pro life and would like to see us move more in that direction,’’ he said. “But I want to hear from my colleagues in the House and my colleagues in the Senate before we take any steps in that direction.”

Well that’s good. They’ll “hear from” their wingnut yahoo brethren before they decide whether and how much to destroy women’s lives. Good to know.

And in case you were wondering about the latest Great Whitebread Hope, here it is:

Bryan Griffin, a spokesman for Gov. Ron DeSantis confirmed the possibility of additional abortion legislation on Friday, and wrote: “We look forward to working with the Legislature to further advance protections for innocent life.” ‘

I don’t know how much of a true believer he is on this. He managed to hold his fire long enough to stay out of the battle in 2022. Can he finesse this for 2024? It won’t be easy. Adn for all we know he is hardcore he is. Can he keep the zealots in line? This is will be a big test:

Anti-abortion activists want legislators to tighten the limits on the procedure by passing a so-called “heartbeat” bill banning abortions after six weeks, before many pregnancies are detected, said John Stemberger, an Orlando attorney and director of the Florida Family Policy Council, an anti-abortion advocacy group. But he said he is uncertain whether that is possible even with what may be the most conservative Legislature in a decade. “I know the governor wants to do something that is more protective, and his office is weighing what to do,’’ he said. “The question is how much political capital he will use to make this a priority.”

Stemberger predicted that “the most likely thing to happen is a heartbeat bill” because that would put Florida in line with states to the north that have either banned all abortions or banned them after six weeks of gestation. “But of course leadership is key,’’ he said. “I think Renner would support a heartbeat bill, as would the governor, but the question is: Will the Senate president?”

After the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, DeSantis issued a statement praising the decision on states’ jurisdiction over abortion regulations and promised that Florida “will work to expand pro-life protections.” He provided no specifics. But DeSantis has also not repeated a promise he made when campaigning in 2018 that he would sign a so-called “heartbeat” bill. On Friday, Griffin would only say that DeSantis is “proud of the 15-week pro-life protections that he signed into law in April, as a baby in gestation beyond 15 weeks is fully formed, can feel pain, and has a heartbeat.”

He was smart enough not to run on abortion this time but that doesn’t mean he won’t do it. He’s going to be battling for the evangelicals with Donald Trump. Do you think he won’t have to make his position clear with them? ,

67% of Florida voters want abortion to remain legal, which includes 52% of Republicans and 63 % of independents. But DeSantis isn’t running for Florida anymore. He’s running for the Republican nomination for president (whether in 24 or 28.) He has a choice to make.

[…]

Achieving the 15-week abortion ban was a tumultuous journey for lawmakers last spring, as lawmakers from both parties gave tearful speeches in debate, protesters disrupted multiple hearings and lawmakers divided mostly along party lines in the final vote to approve it. The measure was signed into law by DeSantis and soon challenged in court, as plaintiffs argued it violates Florida’s constitutional right to privacy.

A circuit court judge ruled the law violated the 1989 court ruling that Florida’s right to privacy — which is enshrined in the state Constitution — protects abortion rights, and blocked the law. An hour later, the DeSantis administration appealed the ruling and it was automatically nullified. The challenge now is pending before the Florida Supreme Court, and DeSantis has said that his goal is to get the court to overturn the past decisions that established the constitutional right to privacy as a right to abortion.

That would seem to be a big mistake. But I’m not sure he has any choice. The Republican base wants these laws in place and they are going to back the leaders who follow through. And as we’ve seen in this election, that’s is a losing proposition.

Good luck with this Ron. You’ve got a tiger by the tail and it’s going to come back to bite you. Donald Trump will have no problem telling the base that he’s for banning all abortions. Why, he even thinks women should be punished for having them. It’s one of the things they love about him the most. And Ron knows it.

It’s probably not going to go our way — but stranger things have happened!

Greg Mitchell looked at the map and gives the optimistic take:

To start off, the New York Times map this morning has the GOP with an ever-shrinking 211-201 bulge. That means Republicans need seven more wins and the Dems 17 to make the House their home. Sounds daunting, but consider that there are a bunch of slam dunks coming for Democrats in California.

Also, as I note below, the Times is not yet counting two clear D wins in Maine and Alaska only because ranked voting there introduces a bit of uncertainty. And they refuse to call the upset in Colorado by the Democrat, Caraveo, even though her opponent has conceded. So let’s start by saying the Dems need 14 more.

WASHINGTON

In a major surprise, the very appealing blue-collar Marie Perez maintains a 5000 vote edge over her Trumpy election denying opponent Joe Kent. This is now a must-have for the Dems. So there’s 1 of the 14. Perez tweeted last night: “Nearly all of the remaining ballots in #WA03 will be counted tomorrow. Joe Kent and I have both repeatedly pledged to accept the results of this election. That moment is coming soon.”

OREGON

Andrea Salinas leads and is still favored to win. Fellow Dem, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, is now on the ropes but has not conceded. So count just 1.

CALIFORNIA

As I’ve noted, this is slowest-counting state but Dems figure to pick up many not-yet-called races where they are heavily favored: at least 7. We’ve highlighted the tough races of Rep. Katie Porter and Rep. Mike Levin in SoCal but last night her lead was boosted to 4500 and his to 9000 and they appear heading back to D.C. So let’s say 2 more.

Dem candidates to the north, Salas and Smith, continue to trail vs. incumbents Valladao and Garcia. However, in the past two elections, many Dems, including Katie Porter, have come back from similar deficits to win in CA in the final week (meaning next week). Still, Dems will probably need two upsets somewhere else and now have strong shots in districts #13 and in #41 (plus the Valladao and Garcia contests and longshot #3). So this may work out. Let’s count, with some uneasiness, 11 wins in all from CA.

ARIZONA

Two possible upsets suddenly brewing in races in districts #1 (where the D, Jevin Hodge, leads) and #6 (where Kirsten Engel trails). So cross fingers and count 1 more, although 2 are possible and will be needed if California doesn’t quite deliver. And bonus points: Nutjob Kari Lake now trailing by 32,000 in governor’s race.

COLORADO

Amid feverish national attention, the horrid Boebert still maintains 1100 vote edge over Frisch and the race appears headed for a full recount—which may not be done until December 13. It’s a very extensive and careful process. Automatic if vote ends with .5 or less margin, or a candidate can pay for it. Frisch, in fact, is raising funds for this effort which includes possible “curing” of thousands of rejected ballots—voters have a few days yet to correct whatever was wrong originally. Plus military and overseas ballots yet to be counted. Longshot for Frisch but possible. Note: The Colorado secretary of state, Jena Griswold, a Democrat who has tussled with election deniers, was re-elected on Tuesday.

NEW YORK

The race for Conole, the Democrat, looks increasingly out of reach but it’s not off the map yet as he hopes for final votes from Syracuse.

Presto: That’s 14 (plus those gimmes in Maine, Alaska and Colorado) to give Dems the magical 218.

Bottom Line: This is very do-able, with those upsets within reach, though, sadly, one must admit, the Boebert recount might give her the satisfaction of handing the House to the GOP.

That’s for those of you who are frantically refreshing that NY Times several times a day. You never know …..

Kherson liberated

"This is what liberation looks like, this is what liberation feels like"

Euphoric crowds burst into song as @NicRobertsonCNN reports from the newly liberated Ukrainian city of Kherson https://t.co/NYXB86MGic pic.twitter.com/MsKyeGjSe9

— CNN (@CNN) November 12, 2022

If we weren’t still hanging on tender hooks waiting to see if American once more (barely) battled back the authoritarian menace at the ballot box, we’d surely be paying closer attention to this moment in Ukraine:

The White House hailed as an “extraordinary victory” Ukraine’s liberation of the city of Kherson from Russia forces.

National security adviser Jake Sullivan said Saturday, “It does look as though the Ukrainians have just won an extraordinary victory in Kherson, where the one regional capital that Russia had seized in this war is now back under a Ukrainian flag — and that is quite a remarkable thing.” Sullivan’s spoke with reporters while accompanying President Joe Biden to the ASEAN summit in Cambodia.

His comments came after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared Kherson “ours” in a video message on Telegram.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met Saturday with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Phnom Penh. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Blinken discussed with Kuleba the United States’ unwavering commitment to assist Ukraine with accelerated humanitarian aid and winterization efforts to mitigate the damage from Russia’s continued attacks on critical infrastructure.

The two officials also talked about Ukraine’s continued effectiveness on the battlefield, and Blinken reiterated that “the timing and substance of any negotiation framework remains Ukraine’s decision.

Blinken and Kuleba reaffirmed the importance of the Black Sea Grain Initiative’s renewal before it expires November 19 and its role in supporting global food security.

Russia is refusing to renew the grain initiative and allow Ukraine to export grain from Black Sea ports unless Western sanctions are lifted on its own food and fertilizer exports. Ukrainian officials have accused Russia of playing “hunger games” with the world.

No one should “underestimate the continuing threat posed by the Russian Federation,” said British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace in a statement welcoming the Russian withdrawal from Kherson and proclaiming that Britain and the international community will continue to support Ukraine.

Addressing Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson, Wallace also posed the question, “Now with that also being surrendered, ordinary people of Russia must surely ask themselves ‘What was it all for?’”

Britain’s Defense Ministry said Saturday in its daily update on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson “is a public recognition of the difficulties faced by Russian forces on the west bank of the Dnipro River.

In the intelligence update posted on Twitter, the ministry said while the withdrawal came only two days after its announcement, “it is likely that the withdrawal process had already started as early as 22 October 2022 when Russian-installed figures in Kherson urged civilians to leave the city.”

Russia said Friday it had finished the withdrawal of its troops from the west bank of the Dnipro River and no soldiers or equipment had been left behind.

Retreating Russian soldiers, though, painted a different picture. A Russian soldier described how he and his fellow soldiers were asked to hastily change into civilian clothing so they would not be detected. Also, some of the retreating soldiers reportedly drowned in the river while trying to escape.

For those Russian troops who did not make it out of the city, “the only chance to avoid death is to immediately surrender,” the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Intelligence Directorate said.

Ukrainian forces entered the city of Kherson, a strategic port city on the Dnipro River, Friday, as Russian forces retreated in haste. People rejoiced in the streets of Kherson welcoming the Ukrainian troops. Many recounted horror stories of Russian soldiers killing civilians and looting homes.

According to Serhiy Khlan, deputy for the Kherson Regional Council, multiple videos circulating on social media show locals enthusiastically welcoming Ukrainian soldiers with blue and yellow flags as they entered the city.

I don’t get the sense that anyone is sanguine about this being the turning point that ends the war. But it’s good. These people withstood a terrible siege and occupation and you can see by their happiness in the streets that it’s a big emotional lift.

I don’t think any of us living in the comfort of the US can imagine how terrifying it is to have a war being fought in your own town. Even American soldiers who know the hell of battle very well probably can’t fully relate to the feelings of those who are literally defending their own homes. I am in awe.

Why anyone voted for that weirdo in the first place and then voted for him again I’ll never understand but they seem to have finally sobered up and realized that the party really is batshit crazy:

Lisa Ghelfi, a 58-year-old registered Republican in Arizona, voted for Donald Trump for president two years ago but has grown tired of his election-fraud claims. It is the main reason she voted for Democrats for governor, senator, secretary of state and attorney general this fall and plans to change her registration to independent.

“Not allowing the election to be settled, it’s very divisive,” Ms. Ghelfi, a semiretired attorney from Paradise Valley, said of the 2020 race. “I think the election spoke for itself.” She said she voted for Republicans down-ballot who weren’t as vocal about election fraud or as closely tied to Mr. Trump, yet couldn’t support Arizona’s four major Republican candidates because they echoed Mr. Trump’s false claims.

Republicans succeeded in one of their top goals this year: They brought more of their party’s voters to the polls than did Democrats. But in the course of energizing their core voters, Republicans in many states lost voters in the political center—both independents and many Republicans who are uneasy with elements of the party’s focus under Mr. Trump.

Control of the House and Senate, which had seemed poised to land with the Republican Party, is coming down to a handful of races that so far are too close to call, though the GOP remains on track to winning a narrow majority in the House. Republicans have won nearly 5.5 million more votes in House races than have Democrats, a tally by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report finds, as many voters were motivated by anxiety over high inflation and a low opinion of President Biden’s response.

At the same time, Republican analysts said their unexpectedly weak showing in the election indicated that they had failed to press hard enough on those issues. In Michigan, the Republican Party’s state committee said a failure to talk to voters in the political center was a central reason that Tudor Dixon, the party’s Trump-endorsed nominee for governor, was crushed in a 10 percentage point defeat by Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

Actually, it sounds like they still aren’t listening to the voters. They weren’t clamoring for more talk about inflation and the deficit. They voted against the lunatics the party had on offer as an alternative to the Democrats. I am pretty sure they know this but they are still afraid to admit it.

And there was the hardcore extremism on abortion:

“It’s picking the lesser of two evils sometimes,” said Micki LePla, 65, a retired respiratory therapist near Port Huron, Mich., who backed Ms. Whitmer for governor.

“I voted for her because I just didn’t want Tudor Dixon to be the governor,” she said. She opposed Ms. Dixon, she said, “because of her viewpoint on abortion, and also she’s a Trump supporter and an election denier. She’s a ‘no’ on so many levels.” Ms. Dixon opposed abortion even in cases of rape and incest.

For many voters, support for legalized abortion changed the election from a referendum on Democratic control of Washington into more of a choice between the two parties.

James VanSteel, 29, an independent voter and transportation planner in the Detroit suburb of Ferndale, said he would have considered a Republican candidate for governor in the mold of Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah. He doesn’t agree with Mr. Romney’s restrictive view of abortion rights, but he sees the senator as a moderating force in government and open to working with both parties. In Michigan, however, the primary season only drew more ideologically driven Republicans, he said, eventually yielding Ms. Dixon as the nominee.

Results of survey of about 115,000 registered votersSee more…

Ms. Dixon’s position on abortion was a nonstarter with him. “If they had talked about some kind of middle ground for regulation but keeping abortion legal in our state, I might have considered her more openly. But that was a very hard line she took,” he said.

Jennifer Borzone, 52, a stay-at-home mother in Phoenix, said she voted for Mr. Trump in 2016 and couldn’t remember whom she voted for in 2020. She said she supported Democrats for every office this year because of their support of access to abortion.

“I don’t think the government should tell women what to do with their body,” she said, adding that her votes were solely decided on that issue.

So how are they going to square this with their huge dependence on the Christian Right? It sure looks as though the Supreme’s screwed things up for the GOP. If they had just gone with the 15 week ban they probably would have gotten away with it. A lot of these people don’t really understand what that means and they would have accepted it. But by opening the floodgates for the Handmaid’s Tale they emboldened the fanatics and now they’ll have to pay the price. This battle is going to continue.

As far as purging the nuts — I’ll believe it when I see it. They’ve set up an entire media apparatus to empower them and Donald Trump is still the Dear Leader with veto power whether they like it or not. Good luck.