“They knew all they needed to know”
ExxonMobil scientists predicted the climate crisis with astounding accuracy as early as 1977, a new Harvard study reveals.
The new analysis on the precision of company scientists’ predictions could be powerful fuel for cities and states that are suing ExxonMobil, accusing the fossil-fuel corporation of violating consumer-protection statutes, lying to investors, or committing racketeering.
“This analysis is a stick of dynamite in these cases,” Patrick Parenteau, professor and senior fellow of climate policy at Vermont Law School, told Insider in an email. “It is the kind of incriminating evidence that can really influence a jury.”
Published in the peer-reviewed journal Science on Thursday, the study compares early ExxonMobil climate models to those from other scientists at the time, and to the actual rise in global temperature that has occurred since then.
According to the study, 63% to 83% of global warming projections from the company’s scientists have turned out to be accurate matches of real-life temperature rises in the decades since.
These projections had an average “skill score” of 66% to 78% — higher than the scores ranging from 38% to 66% reported by NASA scientist James Hansen when he testified to Congress in 1988.
Despite having this precise information about the consequences, ExxonMobil publicly denied that global warming would happen, spent decades attempting to discredit public research that predicted it, and touted the myth that the planet was actually cooling.
At the same time, the company shored up its infrastructure against the coming climate changes.
“That is arguably quite malicious conduct to not only continue your business, but to indeed accelerate production,” Karen Sokol, a professor specializing in climate law and policy at Loyola University New Orleans College of Law, told Insider.
“Right now we’re at a point where it’s getting increasingly painful and expensive to exit a fossil fuel economy,” she said, pointing to the energy crisis in Europe. “There was a time when we could have done this in a much calmer way where there wasn’t as much damage.”
Todd Spitler, a spokesperson for ExxonMobil, sent the following statement to Insider via email: “This issue has come up several times in recent years and, in each case, our answer is the same: those who talk about how ‘Exxon Knew’ are wrong in their conclusions.”
“Some have sought to misrepresent facts and ExxonMobil’s position on climate science, and its support for effective policy solutions, by recasting well intended, internal policy debates as an attempted company disinformation campaign,” Sptiler added. “ExxonMobil’s research in climate science has resulted in nearly 150 papers, including more than 50 peer-reviewed publications that the Company has made available to the public. ExxonMobil’s understanding of climate science has developed along with that of the broader scientific community.”
An investigation by InsideClimate News previously revealed that ExxonMobil’s scientists began warning its executives about the dangers of burning fossil fuels in 1977, when the company was called Exxon.
The company’s products could release so much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere that global temperatures rise 2 to 3 degrees Celsius, those scientists predicted.
That’s exactly the track global warming is on right now. The new analysis reveals far more detail about those early Exxon scientists’ projections, digging into the data from internal company documents.
“It’s one thing to kind of have the impression that they were vaguely aware of global warming decades ago, but it’s another to see the numbers and realize that they actually knew as much as anybody,” Geoffrey Supran, a Harvard historian of science who led the analysis, told Insider. “Arguably, they knew all they needed to know.”
The evidence is now irrefutable but they’re still lying about it. And right wing politicians have managed to turn it into a populist cause convincing their followers that it’s all a hoax perpetrated by woke communists to destroy their freedom.
Here’s Trump in his E. Jean Carroll deposition(trying to establish that he’s a liar who calls everything a hoax):
The war on science is getting hotter every day. Just look at this monumentally STUPID flap over gas stoves this week as the entire right wing rose up as one to screech in unison about the jack-booted thugs who are coming for your kitchen appliances. Or the GOP House legalizing indoor smoking at the US Congress. It’s only a matter of time before they withdraw the ban on DDT and put lead back in gasoline.
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